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Author:
Mr. Desmond Lachman https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Mr. Ramana Ramaswamy
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Mr. J. H. Green
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Mr. Robert P. Hagemann
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Mr. Adam Bennett
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Abstract

Sweden's economy in the early 1990s has been characterized by a deep recession, high unemployment, a ballooning public sector budgete deficit, and a decline in the value of the currency- developments that have raised questions about the country's capacity to sustain its comprehensive welfare state. This study provides an analysis of recent economic developments in a longer-term context and assesses their implications for future policies.

Bibliography

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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alexius, Annika, in Monetary Policy Indicators (Stockholm: Sveriges Rikshauk, June 1993), pp. 6576.

  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accountingin Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 5, David Bradford (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1991).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Vol, 94, No. 2 (1992), pp. 30318.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8 (Winter 1994), pp. 7394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berg, Lennart,Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries.Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Summer 1994), pp. 4253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burtless, Gary,Taxes, Transfers, and Swedish Labor Supply,” in The Swedish Economy, Barry P. Bosworth Alice M. Rivlin (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1987).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calmfors, Lars (1993a), Centralization of Wage Bargaining and Macroeconomic Performance: A Survey, Seminar Paper No. 536 (Stockholm: Institute for International Economic Studies, 1993).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calmfors, Lars (1993b), “Lessons from the Macroeconomic Experience of Sweden.European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 9 (March 1993), pp. 2572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Catāo, Luis, and Ramana Ramaswamy, Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: A Vector Autoregression Approach”, IMF Working Paper No. 95/40 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, April 1995).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goldstein, Morris, and Mohsin S. Khan, Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade,” Handbook of international Economics, Vol. 2, ed. by Ronald W. Jones and Peter B. Kenen (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1985).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heller, Peter S., Richard D. Haas, and Ahsan S. Mansur, A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure. IMF Occasional Paper No. 44 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1986).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henrekson, M., L. Jonung, and J. Stymne, Economic Growth and the Swedish Model” (unpublished, 1994).

  • Henrekson, Magnus, and others, The Crisis of the Swedish Welfare State. SNS Economic Policy Group. Occasional Paper No. 55 (Stockholm, May 1994).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J., Generational Accounting: Knowing Who Pays, and When, for What We Spend (New York: Free Press, 1992).

  • Lindbeck, Assar, and others, The Swedish Experience, Institute for International Economic Studies, Seminar Paper No. 482 (Stockholm, 1990).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindbeck, Assar, and others, Turning Sweden Around (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1994).

  • Milgrom, Paul, and John Roberts, The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organisation,” American Economic Review. Vol. 80 (June 1990), pp. 51128.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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  • Ministry of Finance, Sweden’s Economy (Stockholm, April 1995).

  • Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, Pension Reform in Sweden, A Short Summary (Stockholm, 1994).

  • Muellbauer, John,The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2, Summer 1994, pp. 141.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Muellbauer, John,, “Comment on Auerbach, A.J. J. Gokhale, and L.J. Kotlikoff, ‘Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving,’Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Vol. 94, No. 2 (1992), pp. 31922.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Social Insurance Board, Sweden, Annual Report, 1992/93 (Stockholm, 1993).

  • Nilson, C., and J. Nilson, in “Monetary Policy Indicators” (Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank, June 1993), pp. 4554.

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  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1994b), OECD Employment Outlook (Paris, 1994).

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  • Oxley, Howard, and John P. Martin, Controlling Government Spending and Deficits: Trends in the 1980s and Prospects for the 1990s.OECD Economic Studies. No. 17, Autumn 1991.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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  • Ramaswamy, Ramana,The Structural Crisis in the Swedish Economy: Role of Labor Markets,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 41 (June 1994), pp. 36779.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sandmo, Agnar,Economists and the Welfare State,” European Economic Review, Vol. 35, 1991.

  • Sveriges Rikshank, Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Sweden (Stockholm, October 1994).

  • United Stales, Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government: Analytical Perspectives. Fiscal Year 1995 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1994).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

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Cited By

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  • Abraham, K.G., and S. Houseman, Does Employment Protection Inhibit Labor Market Flexibility? Lessons from Germany, France and Belgium,” W.E. Upjohn Institute Working Paper 93-16 (Kalamazoo, Michigan: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, May 1993).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alexius, Annika, in Monetary Policy Indicators (Stockholm: Sveriges Rikshauk, June 1993), pp. 6576.

  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accountingin Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 5, David Bradford (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1991).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving,” Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Vol, 94, No. 2 (1992), pp. 30318.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8 (Winter 1994), pp. 7394.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berg, Lennart,Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries.Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2 (Summer 1994), pp. 4253.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Burtless, Gary,Taxes, Transfers, and Swedish Labor Supply,” in The Swedish Economy, Barry P. Bosworth Alice M. Rivlin (Washington: Brookings Institution, 1987).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calmfors, Lars (1993a), Centralization of Wage Bargaining and Macroeconomic Performance: A Survey, Seminar Paper No. 536 (Stockholm: Institute for International Economic Studies, 1993).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calmfors, Lars (1993b), “Lessons from the Macroeconomic Experience of Sweden.European Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 9 (March 1993), pp. 2572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Catāo, Luis, and Ramana Ramaswamy, Recession and Recovery in the United Kingdom in the 1990s: A Vector Autoregression Approach”, IMF Working Paper No. 95/40 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, April 1995).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eliasson, Gunnar, and others, The Knowledge Based Information Economy (Stockholm: Industrial Institute for Economic and Social Research, 1990).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • EUROSTAT (Statistical Office of the European Communities), Social Protection Expenditure and Receipts, 1980-1992 (Luxembourg, 1994).

  • Expert Group on Public Finance (ESO), Social Security in Sweden—How to Reform the System (Stockholm: Ministry of Finance, 1994).

  • Franco, D., J. Gokhale, L. Guiso, L.J. Kotlikoff, and N. Sailor, General Accounting: The Case of Italy.Temi di Discussione 171 (Rome: Bank of Italy, 1992).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goldstein, Morris, and Mohsin S. Khan, Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade,” Handbook of international Economics, Vol. 2, ed. by Ronald W. Jones and Peter B. Kenen (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1985).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gustafsson, Björn, and N. Anders Klevmarken, Taxes and Transfers in Sweden: Incentive Effects on Labor Supply”, in Welfare and Work Incentives. A North European Perspective, ed. by A.B. Atkinson and Gunnar Viby Mogeuses (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hagemann, Robert P., and Giuseppe Nicoletti,Ageing Populations: Economic Effects and Implications for Public Finance”, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Department of Economics and Statistics. Working Paper No. 61 (Paris, 1989).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hagemann, Robert P., and Christopher John, Fiscal Policy in Sweden: A Generational Perspective.IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund, forthcoming, 1995).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, HansSocial Security in Sweden and Four Other European Countries,” in Social Security in Sweden and other European Countries—Three Essays (Stockholm: Finansdeparttnentet, 1994).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, Hans Henrekson, MagnusA New Framework for Testing the Effect of Government Spending on Growth and Productivity.Public Choice, Vol. 81 (December 1994), pp. 381401.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hansen, Hans, “Catching up in Industrialized Countries: A Desegregated Study.Journal of International Trade and Economic Development (forthcoming).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Haveman, Robert,Should Generational Accounts Replace Public Budgets and Deficits?Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol. 8 (Winter 1994), pp. 95111.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hedström. P.,Disability Pension: Welfare or Misfortune?in The Scandinavian Model: Welfare States and Welfare Research, ed. by R. Erikson and others (New York: M.E. Sharp, 1987).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heller, Peter S., Richard D. Haas, and Ahsan S. Mansur, A Review of the Fiscal Impulse Measure. IMF Occasional Paper No. 44 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 1986).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henrekson, M., L. Jonung, and J. Stymne, Economic Growth and the Swedish Model” (unpublished, 1994).

  • Henrekson, Magnus, and others, The Crisis of the Swedish Welfare State. SNS Economic Policy Group. Occasional Paper No. 55 (Stockholm, May 1994).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J., Generational Accounting: Knowing Who Pays, and When, for What We Spend (New York: Free Press, 1992).

  • Lindbeck, Assar, and others, The Swedish Experience, Institute for International Economic Studies, Seminar Paper No. 482 (Stockholm, 1990).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindbeck, Assar, and others, Turning Sweden Around (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1994).

  • Milgrom, Paul, and John Roberts, The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organisation,” American Economic Review. Vol. 80 (June 1990), pp. 51128.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ministry of Finance, “Complement to the Supplementary Budget Bill,” in Sweden’s Economy (Stockholm, April 25, 1994).

  • Ministry of Finance, Sweden’s Economy (Stockholm, April 1995).

  • Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, Pension Reform in Sweden, A Short Summary (Stockholm, 1994).

  • Muellbauer, John,The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure,” Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 10, No. 2, Summer 1994, pp. 141.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Muellbauer, John,, “Comment on Auerbach, A.J. J. Gokhale, and L.J. Kotlikoff, ‘Generational Accounting: A New Approach to Understanding the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Saving,’Scandinavian Journal of Economics. Vol. 94, No. 2 (1992), pp. 31922.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Social Insurance Board, Sweden, Annual Report, 1992/93 (Stockholm, 1993).

  • Nilson, C., and J. Nilson, in “Monetary Policy Indicators” (Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank, June 1993), pp. 4554.

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1993a), OECD Economic Outlook, No. 54 (Paris, December 1993).

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1993b), OECD Employment Outlook (Paris, 1993).

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1994a). OECD Economic Surveys, 1993-1994; Sweden (Paris, 1994).

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (1994b), OECD Employment Outlook (Paris, 1994).

  • Olsson, Sven E., Social Policy and Welfare in Sweden (Lund: Arkiv, 1990).

  • Oxley, Howard, and John P. Martin, Controlling Government Spending and Deficits: Trends in the 1980s and Prospects for the 1990s.OECD Economic Studies. No. 17, Autumn 1991.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Piore, Michael J., and Charles F. Sabel, The Second Industrial Divide: Possibilities for Prosperity (New York: Basic Books, 1984).

  • Ramaswamy, Ramana,The Structural Crisis in the Swedish Economy: Role of Labor Markets,” Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 41 (June 1994), pp. 36779.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sandmo, Agnar,Economists and the Welfare State,” European Economic Review, Vol. 35, 1991.

  • Sveriges Rikshank, Inflation and Inflation Expectations in Sweden (Stockholm, October 1994).

  • United Stales, Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the United States Government: Analytical Perspectives. Fiscal Year 1995 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1994).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation