X. Compiling the BOP Statement: an Overview
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Abstract

404. Previous chapters have focused on various data sources that may be used to compile a BOP statement. This chapter examines the compilation process itself. The BOP worksheet is discussed, and broad issues associated with estimation and projection are described. Introduction of a BOP coding system is followed by a discussion of the relationship between the BPM and the SNA. Selection of the unit of account for the BOP and treatment of multiple exchange rates are then described. The remainder of the chapter addresses compilation issues (including treatments of mobile equipment, construction activity, household transactions, and wealthy individuals) that could have significant impacts on a number of BOP components.

Introduction

404. Previous chapters have focused on various data sources that may be used to compile a BOP statement. This chapter examines the compilation process itself. The BOP worksheet is discussed, and broad issues associated with estimation and projection are described. Introduction of a BOP coding system is followed by a discussion of the relationship between the BPM and the SNA. Selection of the unit of account for the BOP and treatment of multiple exchange rates are then described. The remainder of the chapter addresses compilation issues (including treatments of mobile equipment, construction activity, household transactions, and wealthy individuals) that could have significant impacts on a number of BOP components.

405. Chapters 11 through 17 of this Guide deal with compilation issues pertaining to particular components of the BOP. However, many transactions affect more than one component, and cross references are made when appropriate.

The BOP Worksheet

406. As described in chapter 1, the BOP is a statistical statement designed to provide a record of an economy’s economic transactions with the rest of the world. This statistical statement can be presented in a number of ways and with varying levels of detail. The most detailed level is the BOP worksheet, wherein the compiler assembles various source data (including estimates) in a manner consistent with the conceptual framework and classifications.

407. The BOP worksheet can be thought of as a document that records the BOP. However, in most cases, this worksheet will take the form of a computer database. Regardless of the form that the BOP worksheet takes, factors influencing its design will be similar. These factors are discussed in this chapter and in chapters 18 and 20.

408. Selection of items to be included in the BOP worksheet and methods of measuring them should be based upon the objectives and constraints of the BOP compilation process. The objective of the BOP process is to present, to users (such as economic analysts), meaningful economic data on an economy’s external economic activity. Data should be presented so that the analyst can see links between the BOP and other important bodies of statistics—such as the national accounts, money and banking statistics, and government finance statistics. As both domestic and international users may wish to compare one country’s activity and performance with that of other countries, the compiler should provide internationally comparable data. The compiler should ensure that statistics meet user requirements in terms of quality, detail, and timeliness. In all cases, the compiler should take into account the quantity and quality of the staff and other resources available to undertake this work.

Estimation and Projection

Estimation

409. Often, data that come from sources available to the BOP compiler can be entered directly into the BOP worksheet to compile the series included therein. However, in certain situations, the compiler may have to manipulate data before entering them into the worksheet. Illustration 10.1 highlights this point. It shows that data from various sources may be used directly in the worksheet or in estimation procedures that, in turn, provide input for the worksheet. Illustration 10.1 distinguishes four broad forms of estimation undertaken by the BOP compiler: (1) simple estimation, (2) sample expansion, (3) data model, and (4) extrapolation and interpolation.

Illustration 10.1
Illustration 10.1

Relationship of Data Sources, BOP Worksheet, and Estimation Procedures

410. Simple estimation involves relatively simple formulae or procedures that may be used to adjust or estimate source series. For example, certain source series may suffer from undercoverage, and the compiler may, for BOP compilation purposes, apply a ratio or add some amount to the source series. Also, a BOP series may be estimated by using an assumed ratio between that series and other BOP or economic statistical series. For example, freight and insurance on imports may be considered to be fixed ratios of imports c.i.f.

411. Sample expansion is the process of expanding results from a selection of respondents to measure the population as a whole. The use of sampling techniques in BOP collections is discussed in chapter 18, paragraphs 888-890.

412. A third type of estimation involves bringing data from different sources together in a data model; the output of the model is a particular BOP item. For example, estimates of nonresident traveler expenditure in an economy could be derived by obtaining, from migration statistics, the number of short-term visitors and multiplying this number by estimates, which were derived from a survey of travelers and other sources, of expenditure per capita. Selection and inclusion of some data model elements depend on the compiler’s judgment.

413. Data from some sources may not be available on a sufficiently timely basis for compilation of the BOP statement. Therefore, the compiler may extrapolate certain BOP series from earlier periods. Extrapolation also covers adjustments made to preliminary results from a collection source providing less than complete data. If the data source or data model used by the compiler provides data on a less frequent basis than the periodicity of BOP compilation, it will be necessary to interpolate data between measurement periods to obtain sufficiently frequent estimates for the BOP.

414. Many compilers consider all BOP statistics to be estimates—a perception that emphasizes how compilation of BOP accounts is subject to a range of processes and individual subjective judgments at different levels of compilation. However, estimation should not be seen as a substitute for collecting reliable data.

Projection

415. Apart from compiling BOP series for historical periods, many compilers project BOP series for future periods if, for example, they are members of official committees that provide national accounts (including BOP) projections for government economic policy purposes. Compilers who have a good understanding of BOP compilation methodology and BOP series can play valuable roles on such committees. In turn, compilers develop greater understanding of the use of BOP series and insight essential for various data analyses and validation functions that compilers are expected to perform. Alternative sets of projections, each of which is predicated on different assumptions, may be produced.

416. In the Guide, the term estimates refers to derivation of series for historical periods and the term projections refers to compilation of BOP series for future periods. Subsequent chapters include some illustrative information on projection methodologies.

417. It is important that compilers involved in projecting the BOP be aware of projections—particularly official projections—of items related to the BOP and that these other projections be given appropriate consideration when BOP items are projected. It would not be proper, for example, for BOP compilers to project imports of goods on the basis of national income projections that differ from official national accounts projections.76

418. BOP projections can be developed via a “bottom up” or “top down” approach. In the former, individual items are projected and broad aggregates are derived by summing these items. Derivations of broad aggregates should be verified in terms of appropriateness to expected economic circumstances. The “top down” approach is the reverse. Broad aggregates are projected first, and individual items are then projected to fit in with broad aggregates. In this case, projected individual items should be checked to ensure that each, per se, is sensible.

419. Econometric equations are often a useful tool for developing projections as such equations provide a systematic and objective framework. However, they should be used with caution. Historical data of high quality are required to establish the equations; specialized technical skills are required to develop them; and changes (particularly structural changes) in economic circumstances can have an impact on the quality of results. Also, “the real world” is significantly more complex than even the most sophisticated econometric equation or set of equations.

420. Econometric equations are generally more reliable for projecting some BOP items than others. Such equations often provide useful starting points for discussion. However, a result from an econometric equation should never be accepted unless it can be supported by reasonable economic argument.

421. Regardless of the techniques used to project BOP items, compilers should perform ongoing reviews to assess effectiveness and make necessary adjustments.

BOP Coding System

422. The coding (reference number) system used in the Guide is one that has been agreed upon by the IMF, the OECD, and the European Union as the international standard for coding BOP and IIP data. Objectives underlying system design include completeness of coverage, simplicity, stability, and adaptability to automation.

423. The coding system consists of two parts: a four-digit topic code and a tag code that may contain any number of digits. The topic code is required; the tag code is optional. Topic codes have been completely defined at the international level; tag codes have typically not been defined. The purpose of the tag code is to enable compilers in particular countries, or groups of countries, to adapt the coding system to their requirements and preferences. The tag code could be used, for example, to show levels of detail that exceed the international level or to show a commodity breakdown of trade in goods or additional details on services transactions.

424. When topic codes were determined, criteria were predicated on ease of use. Limiting the codes to numbers would ensure that codes would be acceptable to a wide range of computer software. Limiting the length to short numbers, which could be read and memorized easily, would also reduce computer storage and data entry costs.

425. It is useful to structure any group of codes so that components can be related to each other in a comprehensive way. For example, in BOP codes, it might be advantageous if the fourth digit always represented the domestic sector. However, the brevity criterion for topic codes limited incorporation of information. Only the first and second digits of topic codes have particular meanings.

426. The first digit of the topic code describes the position of the item in the IIP/BOP accounts as:

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427. The second digit of the topic code identifies the section of the accounts as:

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428. The third and fourth digits of the topic code relate to specific items in the accounts and have generally been assigned sequentially.

429. Table 10.1 shows the relationship between the coding system and standard components set out in the BPM for the current account. Some items, which are shown with asterisks, contained in the coding system are not standard components of the BPM. These items have been included because of their potential analytical interest to a large number of countries. Tables 10.2, 10.3, and 10.4 (on pages 76-84) show the relationships between the coding system and the standard components set out in the BPM for the capital account, financial account, and IIP, respectively. Table 10.5 (on pages 85-86) shows—except for supplementary items included in table 10.1—the relationship between the coding system and supplementary classifications of the BPM.

Table 10.1

Standard Components of the Current Account

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Items shown with asterisks are not standard components. These items have been included because they may be of analytical interest to many countries.

Table 10.2

Standard Components of the Capital Account

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Table 10.3

Standard Components of the Financial Account

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These items, which are not BOP standard components, are necessary to reconcile HOP and IIP standard components.

This item is not part of the financial account; it has been included for convenience only.

Table 10.4

Standard Components of the International Investment Position

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Table 10.5

Supplementary Classifications of the BOP

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Only net transactions are typically recorded for these items.

Items shown with double asterisks are not supplementary classifications noted in the BPM. These items have been included because they may be of analytical interest to many countries.

Relationship Between the BPM and the SNA

430. As chapter 1 notes, there is a close relationship between the balance of payments and the broader system of national accounts, which provides a comprehensive and systematic framework for collection and presentation of economic statistics for an economy. The two systems are linked by the rest of the world account of the national accounts. To meet full SNA requirements, some extensions of standard BOP components are required. These additional components are shown in table 10.6 (on pages 87-88). The SNA also requires that the price change and exchange rate change columns in the IIP be split into neutral holding gains/losses and real holding gains/losses.

Table 10.6

Additional Components Required to Reconcile BOP Standard Components and the National Accounts

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431. The Guide does not intend to explain fully the relationship between the BPM and the SNA because the subject is adequately covered in appendix 1 of the BPM. However, the Guide does discuss, in the relevant chapters, compilation issues that arise from SNA requirements for additional components.

432. A general issue is to what extent the BOP compiler should compile data on these additional components. Many of the extensions are theoretical cells that complete articulation of the national accounts. When a particular extended item would have no impact on the BOP (and, consequently, the national accounts) for a particular country, measurement of the item would be unnecessary. That is, it could be considered a nil cell. For example, for most countries, subsidies payable to nonresident producers (an additional component relating to current transfers) would be nonexistent or negligible. When items are significant, the BOP compiler should provide information for the national accounts compiler. Decisions should be taken jointly about the type of data that should be collected to harmonize BOP and national accounts.

433. Because additional components required to harmonize the BPM and the SNA are typically not needed for international balance of payments analysis and because the extent to which additional detail is actually compiled will vary from country to country, standard codes have not been assigned to additional components. It is envisaged that tag fields of appropriate standard codes would be used to distinguish additional detail.

Unit of Account and Multiple Exchange Rate Conversions

434. BOP accounts should be prepared in both the national unit of account and in terms of an international unit of account, such as the U.S. dollar or SDR. The national unit of account is required to compile the external sector of the national accounts and to meet the requirements of many domestic analysts, while the standard unit of account is required for purposes of international comparison—for example, in BOP statistics published by the IMF. In countries where a single exchange rate is used, the BOP compiler could prepare the accounts in national currency and leave it to others to make the conversion to U.S. dollars. However, for countries where the exchange rate of the national currency is relatively unstable, it is recommended that the BOP also be compiled in terms of a more stable standard unit of account, such as the U.S. dollar.77

435. In countries maintaining multiple exchange rate systems, it is essential that BOP statistics be compiled, for the purpose of external analysis, in terms of an international currency. It is also be necessary to for statistics to be compiled in the national currency. The existence of multiple exchange rates raises the issue of the most appropriate rate for converting transactions (which will be most BOP transactions) denominated in a foreign currency into the national currency.

436. The choice of conversion method should be one that approximates market rates and provides meaningful economic data. To demonstrate the options available, table 10.7 (on page 88) presents results from applying, to a hypothetical set of transactions, four different conversion rate methods—official rates, actual rates used in transactions, the predominant transaction rate, and the weighted average conversion rate. Each rate, apart from the actual rate, represents a unitary conversion rate.

Table 10.7

Impact of Using Alternative Conversion Methods

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Note: The official rate is calculated at par; results are equivalent to U.S. dollar values. Actual rates are those quoted in paragraph 437; bank assets are calculated at corresponding transaction values or as a residual. (By definition, these are equivalent.) The predominant rate is the commercial rate. The weighted average rate is derived by summing the transactions (excluding bank assets, which are derived residually) at actual rates and dividing by the equivalent sum valued in U.S. dollars.

437. In table 10.7, it is assumed that an economy has four conversion rates: an official rate (at par with the U.S. dollar), a commercial rate that is offered to commercial transactors (2 units of domestic currency are equal to 1 U.S. dollar), a tourist rate (2.5 units of domestic currency are equal to 1 U.S. dollar), and a parallel (black) market rate (3 units of domestic currency are equal to 1 U.S. dollar). The first three rates are offered by the economy’s single bank. It is also assumed that, in the accounting period, the government imports goods valued at US$ 20 (converted at the official rate); enterprises export goods valued at US$ 100 and import goods valued at US$ 80 (converted at the commercial rate); nonresident travelers exchange US$ 5 with the bank at the tourist rate and US$ 3 with parallel market operators at the parallel market rate; and the parallel market operators, in turn, use the proceeds to buy goods from abroad.

438. From the table, one may see that use of a unitary rate, regardless of the rate chosen, preserves relationships between each of the items. For example, in the tabic, travel credits are 8 percent of exports in each case for which a unitary rate is used. However, when actual rates are used, the relationships between items become distorted. For example, when actual rates are used, exports of goods exceed imports of goods—a result that is contrary to the result obtained by using either a unitary rate or recording transactions in U.S. dollars.

439. The BPM advocates that a single rate—either a weighted unitary rate or, if more practical, the predominant rate—should be used for transactions in official markets and that the parallel market rate should be used to convert transactions in that market.

440. In the national accounts, actual exchange rates would be the basis of conversion for deriving—in terms of national currency—flows of goods and services and other transactions in domestic accounts. However, according to the SNA, adjustments, which represent the difference between values derived by using a unitary rate and values derived by applying actual rates, should be included to ensure that taxes and subsidies implicit in multiple exchange rates are measured in the accounts. Essentially the final result should be the same in the national accounts and the BOP.

441. It is important that BOP compilers in countries with multiple exchange rate schemes be aware of the impact of using different methods of conversion and that BOP compilers agree with national accounts compilers on how the two sets of statistics will be reconciled.

Treatment of the Operation of Mobile Equipment

442. Treatment of the operation of mobile equipment, particularly equipment operating in a country other than the country of the legal or actual operator, often poses significant conceptual and practical problems for BOP compilers. The key to correct treatment of this equipment lies in determining the residency of the operator of the equipment. Once residency has been determined, the recording of transactions becomes more straightforward, and compilers can focus on the best methods of collecting necessary BOP information.

443. Table 10.8 shows various types of mobile equipment and factors that should be considered in establishing, for each of type of equipment, the country of residence of the operator. Table 10.8 (on page 89) shows that, in most cases, the operator’s country of residence is also that of the legal operator. Exceptions occur with equipment operating for extended time periods in economies other than the economy of the legal operator. If circumstances described in table 10.8 exist for such equipment, the compiler should consider the equipment to be operated by a resident of the host economy. To ensure (if possible) consistency of treatment for significant operations, the BOP compiler should discuss residency assumptions with counterparts in partner countries.

Table 10.8

Determining the Residency of Mobile Equipment Operators

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444. To illustrate recording of the operation of mobile equipment in the balance of payments, table 10.9 (on page 89) sets out accounts relating to mobile equipment operated by a resident of country A. This operator is a branch of an enterprise with a head office in country B. All transactions, other than the initial provision of equipment, are assumed to involve a bank account in country A. Table 10.10 (on page 90) shows how these transactions would be recorded in the balance of payments of countries A and B.

Table 10.9

Sample Accounting Statement for Transactions Relating to Mobile Equipment

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Table 10.10

BOP Treatment of Sample Transactions Shown in Table 10.9

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Operating profit (In this case, operating profit is less than total remittances, so all operating profit is considered to have been remitted.)

Total remittances (170) less operating profit (120)

445. Tables 10.11 and 10.12 (on pages 91-96) show, more comprehensively, information that the BOP compiler should collect on mobile equipment and how this informationshould be recorded in the BOP. Table 10.11 shows the treatment of transactions involving mobile equipment operated by a resident of country A; the resident is assumed to be a branch of a parent enterprise that is located in country B and has no other operations in country A.78 Table 10.12 shows the treatment of similar transactions with regard to mobile equipment operated by a resident of country B. Both tables show the recording of transactions from country A’s point of view. Where appropriate, the partner country to a transaction is shown in parentheses. Some transactions shown involve country X, which is any country other than A and can include country B.

Table 10.11

Treatment of Transactions Involving Mobile Equipment—BOP of Country A

(The resident operator is a branch of a parent enterprise in country B.)

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For a discussion on apportioning financial lease payments into income and financial components, see chapter 16, paragraph 784-786.

Remittances of funds can only be considered income if such funds relate to the operating profit of the current or a previous period.

Table 10.12

Treatment of Transactions Involving Mobile Equipment—BOP of Country A

(Operator Resident of Country B)

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For a discussion on apportioning financial Lease payments into income and financial components, see chapter 16, paragraphs 784-786.

446. In both tables 10.11 and 10.12, transaction treatments are split between those that involve the operator’s bank account in country A and those that do not.79 It can be seen that this distinction only affects financial account entries. The financial aspect of transactions does not affect entries related to the current account.

447. Table 10.11 shows that some debit entries reflecting remittances pertain either to investment income (direct investment—equity) or to the financial account (direct investment in reporting economy—equity capital). The reason is that remittances of investment income can only relate to operating profits earned in the current or previous periods. Remittances that exceed these profits should be recorded as withdrawals of capital. The calculation of operating profits is discussed in detail in chapter 13.

448. The compiler must determine the collection method that will produce the most acceptable results. It may not be necessary to collect information on all types of transactions shown in tables 10.11 and 10.12. Some types of transactions may be assumed to be nil or negligible. Much of the information required could come from collections other than a survey of mobile equipment operators. For example, information on imports and exports of goods could come from ITS, and estimates of some services and financial transactions from an ITRS.80 However, when mobile equipment is considered to be operated by resident entities that are branches of nonresident enterprises, it will usually be necessary to approach operators to obtain some of the information.

449. Occasionally, the compiler may encounter a situation in which it is difficult to determine the residence of an enterprise that operates mobile equipment. For example, the operating enterprise may be registered in two or more countries as a result of special legislation. In such cases, the earnings, expenses, assets and other activities of the operator could be split between the countries in proportion to shares held in the operating enterprise. Alternatively, the country where the head office of the enterprise is located could be considered the operator’s country of residence, and the other countries could be considered shareholders in the operation. The BPM notes that both alternatives are consistent with concepts underlying the national accounts and balance of payments. While the BPM states that, on balance, the first method is preferred, accounting for transactions in this way is complicated and it may be difficult to obtain the full range of information required. Because of its relative simplicity, the second method may, in fact, be the method chosen by compilers. Regardless of the method chosen, the compiler should liaise with his or her counterparts in other countries to ensure consistency of treatment.

450. The following example should help illustrate the two possible treatments. Table 10.13 (on page 96) shows a set of transactions for an enterprise that is registered in countries A and B and operates mobile equipment. The enterprise is 60 percent owned by the government of country A and 40 percent owned by the government of country B. The head office of the enterprise is located in country A. Table 10.14(a) (on page 97) shows the balance of payments treatment of these transactions if the operations of the enterprise are split between countries A and B in proportion to shares held. Table 10.14(b) (on pages 97-98) shows the balance of payments treatment if the mobile equipment operator is considered a resident of country A and if country B is a 40 percent shareholder in the operation.

Table 10.13

Sample Accounting Statement for Transactions Relating to Mobile Equipment

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Transaction involving operator’s bank account in country A

Transaction involving operator’s bank account in country B

Table 10.14(a)

BOP Treatment of Sample Transactions Shown in Table 10.13 Operations Split in Proportion to Shares Held

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Note: Numbers in parentheses correspond to the numbering of transactions in table 10.13.
Table 10.14(b)

BOP Treatment of Sample Transactions Shown in Table 10.13 Mobile Equipment Operated by Resident of Country A

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Note: Numbers in parentheses correspond to the numbering of transactions in table 10.13.

40 percent of operating profit (130) less dividends paid (100)

451. Similar problems in determining the residency of the mobile equipment operator could arise when equipment is operated jointly by partners that are residents of two or more countries. The same two choices are available to compilers: to split equipment operations in proportion to shares held by each partner or to assign the operations to a particular country and consider each partner a shareholder in an enterprise operating the equipment. On both conceptual and practical grounds, the second method is encouraged. In determining the operator’s country of residence, the compiler should consider such factors as the location of the office that directs the operations, the country to which the largest part of the operations relates, and the country in which the equipment is registered.

Treatment of Construction Activity

452. It is quite common for an enterprise resident in one country to undertake construction activity in another. The first step in determining correct BOP treatment for such construction activity (and the information that should be collected) is to establish the residency of the enterprise engaged in the construction work. Chapter 4 of the BPM discusses determination of enterprise residency in some detail. In summary, an enterprise that undertakes operations in an economy outside the economy in which it normally operates should be considered a resident of the host economy if all of the following conditions are met:

  • the enterprise operates in the host economy for a year or more;

  • complete and separate accounts are maintained in respect of the local activities;

  • the enterprise operates a bank account in respect of local operations;

  • income taxes are paid to the host economy.

453. If these conditions are met, the construction activity should be attributed to an enterprise that is resident in the host economy and involved in a direct investment relationship with a parent enterprise in another economy. If these conditions are not met, the activity should be attributed to a nonresident enterprise (from the point of view of the host economy), and the acquisition of output by the host economy should be regarded as an import of a service.

454. Table 10.15 (on pages 98-99) shows the BOP treatment of transactions that are typical of an enterprise engaged in construction activity in a country other than the one where the enterprise normally operates. Two treatments are shown; the first is in respect of the activity being attributed to an enterprise that is a resident of the host economy (country A), and the second is in respect of the activity being attributed to a nonresident enterprise in country B. It is assumed in both cases that transactions involve a bank account established by the construction enterprise in country A. The treatment of transactions is presented from the point of view of country A. When appropriate, the partner country to a transaction is shown in parentheses. Some transactions shown involve country X, which is any country other than A and can include B.

Table 10.15

Treatment of Construction Activity in Country A—BOP of Country A

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Remittances of funds can only be considered income if such funds relate to the operating profit of current or previous periods.

455. The treatment and measurement of construction activity in the BOP is discussed further in chapter 12 (in respect of services) and chapter 16 (in respect of direct investment enterprises).

Selected Household Transactions

456. Table 10.16 (on pages 100-102) sets out a number of cases for persons who may be involved in BOP transactions. The table describes the treatment of these transactions in the BOP and indicates chapters in the Guide where information on sources and methods can be obtained. The list of categories in table 10.16 should not be regarded as an exhaustive statement of household transactions; rather, it is illustrative of the more common household transactions and related BOP treatments.

Table 10.16

Types of Household Sector Transactions Recorded in the Balance of Payments

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Treatment of Individuals with Multiple Residences

457. It is often difficult to determine the proper treatment of individuals who maintain residences in more than one country and actively participate in the activities of enterprises in a number of countries. The treatment of these individuals, either as residents or nonresidents, could have an important impact on the BOP. Often, criteria for determining country of residence may not be definitive; for example, such individuals may change citizenship without changing their centers of economic interest. It is important that the national treatment for such individuals be sensible and that partner countries adopt consistent treatment. In this respect, the IMF Statistics Department has agreed to play a coordinating role by accepting information supplied by BOP compilers on these individuals and the treatments thereof in individual countries. The Statistics Department will, if it is not subject to any national confidentiality restrictions, transmit this information to other national BOP compilers.

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  • Illustration 10.1

    Relationship of Data Sources, BOP Worksheet, and Estimation Procedures