Copyright
© 1995 International Monetary Fund
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Sub-Saharan Africa: growth, savings, and investment, 1986–93 / Michael T. Hadjimichael … [et al.].
p. cm.—(Occasional paper; 118)
“January 1995.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 1-55775-458-6: $15.00
1. Savings and investment—Africa, Sub-Saharan. 2. Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic conditions—1960- 3. Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic policy. I. Hadjimichael, Michael T. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 118.
HC800.Z9S38 1995
339.4’3’0967—dc20 94-46800 CIP
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Contents
Preface
I. Introduction
Scope and Principal Results of This Study
II. Overview of Recent Economic Performance
Growth and Inflation
External Sector Developments
Stance of Financial Policies
Analysis of Net Financial Balances
Concluding Remarks
III. Theoretical Determinants of Growth, Savings, and Investment
Macroeconomic Stability
Inflation
Fiscal Policy
Exchange Rate Policy
Trade Policy
Structural Policies
Financial Intermediation
External Debt
Terms of Trade Changes
Foreign Assistance
IV. Empirical Determinants of Growth, Savings, and Investment
Determinants of Growth
Determinants of Savings and Private Investment
Effects of Foreign Aid on Savings, Investment, and Growth
V. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Appendices
I. Empirical Framework and Methodology
A1. Sub-Saharan Africa: Weights Based on Purchasing Power Parity, 1992
II. Statistical Tables
A2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A3. Sub-Saharan Africa Excluding South Africa: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A4. Sub-Saharan Africa Excluding South Africa and Zaïre: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A5. CFA Franc Countries: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A6. Non-CFA Franc Countries Excluding Zaïre: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A7. Positive Per Capita Growth Countries: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A8. Negative Per Capita Growth Countries Excluding Zaïre: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A9. Sustained Adjusters: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A10. Low Macroeconomic Imbalances Countries: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
A11. Protracted Imbalances Countries Excluding Zaïre: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators
References
Box
Dependence on Primary Commodity Exports
Tables
Section
I. 1. African Countries: Comparison of Economic Performance
2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Real GDP in 1992
3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Population in 1992
4. Sub-Saharan Africa: Per Capita Nominal GDP, 1992
5. Sub-Saharan Africa: Analytical Country Groups
II. 6. Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth and Inflation Performance
7. Sub-Saharan Africa: External Sector Developments
8. Sub-Saharan Africa: Changes in the Terms of Trade and in Real Effective Exchange Rates
9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Export and Import Performance
10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Indicators of Financial Policies
11. Sub-Saharan Africa: Analysis of Net Financial Balances
12. Sub-Saharan Africa: Government Savings and Investment
13. Sub-Saharan Africa: Private Savings and Investment
14. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Savings and Investment
15. Sub-Saharan Africa: Summary of Economic Performance, 1986–93
IV. 16. Contribution to Trend Output Growth, 1971–91
17. Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitions of the Variables Used in the Regressions
18. Estimates of the Growth Equation
19. Beta Coefficients and Contribution of Explanatory Variables to Per Capita GDP Growth
20. Empirical Determinants of Private Domestic Investment for Developing Countries
21. Estimates of the Investment and Savings Equations
22. Sub-Saharan Africa: Official Development Assistance
23. Partial Effects of ODA on Savings, Investment, and Growth
24. Estimates of the Effects of ODA on Investment and Savings
25. Estimates of the Effects of ODA on Growth
The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
… to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
– between years or months (e.g., 1991–92 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
Preface
This paper has been prepared by a team of economists in the African Department of the International Monetary Fund, headed by Michael T. Hadjimichael, and comprising Dhaneshwar Ghura, Martin Mühleisen, Roger Nord, and Murat Uçer. The authors would like to thank Anupam Basu and Pierre Dhonte for their comments and encouragement, as well as several colleagues in the African Department for their constructive comments. They would also like to thank Gertrud Windsperger for extensive research assistance, Janet Bungay for editorial assistance, and Elisa Diehl of the External Relations Department for editing and coordinating the paper for publication. Any remaining errors are solely the responsibility of the authors.
The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and should not be construed as representing those of the Executive Directors of the IMF or of other members of the IMF staff.