© 1994 International Monetary Fund
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Exchange rates and economic fundamentals : a framework for analysis / Peter Clark … [et al.].
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p. cm. — (Occasional Paper, ISSN 0251-6365 ; 115)
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Includes bibliographical references.
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ISBN 1-55775-451-9 : ($15.00, $12.00)
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1. Foreign exchanges rates. I. Clark, Peter B. (Peter Barton). 1941– II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund) ; no. 115.
HG3851.E936 1994
332.4’56—dc20
94-24052
CIP
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Contents
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Preface
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I. Introduction
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II. International Competitiveness Indicators
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Purchasing Power Parity: Basic Concepts
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Causes and Effects of Deviations from PPP
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Real Exchange Rate Indicators and Competitiveness
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Recent Experience with Real Exchange Rate Indicators
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III. Macroeconomic Balance Approach
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Overview
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Defining Internal and External Balance
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Calculating the Macroeconomic Balance Exchange Rate
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IV. Summary and Conclusions
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References
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Charts
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Section
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II. 1. Japan: Real Effective Exchange Rates
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2. Ireland: Real Effective Exchange Rates
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3. United States and Japan: Selected Indicators
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III. 4. Macroeconomic Balance and the Real Exchange Rate
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5. Selected Indicators: Average of Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom
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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
… to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
– between years or months (e.g., 1991–92 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
Preface
This study was prepared in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund and addresses a number of issues related to the assessment of exchange rates. The authors are all in the Economic Modeling and External Adjustment Division of the Research Department. Peter Clark is the Division Chief and Assistant Director of the Research Department, Steven Symansky is the Deputy Division Chief, and Leonardo Bartolini and Tamim Bayoumi are economists. The paper has benefited from comments and suggestions by many of their colleagues at the Fund, primarily other members of the division: Bankim Chadha, Douglas Laxton, Hamid Faruqee, and Stephen Tokarick. In addition, the authors would especially like to single out Michael Mussa and Morris Goldstein for extensive advice and comments. Finally, the authors would like to thank Anthony Turner for providing assistance with data issues related to unit labor costs, Edward Broxson for bibliographic research, and Susanna Mursula and Youkyong Kwon for valuable and skilled work on the charts. J.R. Morrison of the External Relations Department edited the paper and coordinated production, and Alicia Etchebarne-Bourdin assisted in composition. The views expressed in the paper are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the IMF or other members of its staff.