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International Monetary Fund
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OP; developing country; deficit; dollar; price
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Abstract

Recent indicators suggest that activity in the world economy is strengthening more rapidly than projected by the staff six months ago. This is especially true of the United States, but the staff has also revised upward its growth projections for most other industrial countries-in the case of Japan and several of the smaller industrial countries by significant amounts.

Statistical Appendix

Introduction

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before August 3, 1984, except for some of the major industrial countries where some minor adjustments have been made to reflect information available up to September 7, 1984. The recording throughout the tables of the figures for 1984 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience. It is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

A few of the tables include series expressed in SDRs (or based on SDR values). The U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For the years prior to 1970, these data impute to the SDR a value of US$1.00. For the period from June 1984 to the end of 1985, a rate of US$1.040 per SDR—the rate prevailing on average during June 1984—is used.

The estimates and projections for 1984 and 1985 are predicated on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses:

—for the major currencies, the exchange rates of a recent period (June 1984) will prevail throughout the balance of 1984 and 1985;

—“present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; and

—the average price of oil will remain constant in nominal terms.

The classification of countries in this report is the one adopted by the Fund in December 1979 and utilized in IFS for the March 1980 and subsequent issues. Industrial countries comprise

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The developing countries are divided into two groups—“oil exporting countries” and “non-oil developing countries.” The countries covered under the heading oil exporting countries1 are

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The other developing countries, or non-oil developing countries, include all Fund members (as of March 31, 1984) except those listed above as being “industrial countries” or “oil exporting countries,” together with certain essentially autonomous dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.2 Where regional breakdowns of data for “non-oil developing countries” are shown, the subgroups conform to the regional classification used in IFS.

In a number of tables, certain analytical subgroups of countries are distinguished. Among the “developing countries,” a subgroup of major borrowers is distinguished. This group comprises those seven developing countries with total outstanding external indebtedness at end-1983 of at least $30 billion, or outstanding indebtedness to private creditors at end-1983 of at least $20 billion. These countries are

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Among the “non-oil developing countries,” four analytical subgroups of countries are distinguished. These subgroupings are based primarily on the character of the countries’ economic activity and the predominant composition of their exports. Since the large “non-oil” group in the basic classification in cludes some countries that do have significant pro duction and/or exports of oil, one of the analytic subgroups shown separately comprises countries (out side the main oil exporting group mentioned above) whose oil exports exceeded their oil imports in most years of the 1970s.

The countries classified in the subgroup net oil exporters are

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Within the great majority of developing countries and areas that are net importers of oil (net oil importers), three subgroups are distinguished. The first is major exporters of manufactures, including

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A second subgroup is the low-income countries, comprising 43 countries whose per capita GDP, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $350 in 1978. These are

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The third subgroup, other net oil importers, comprises middle-income countries (according to the World Bank’s estimates), the majority of which export mainly primary commodities. The countries in this subgroup comprise all non-oil developing countries that are not included among “net oil exporters,” “major exporters of manufactures,” or “low-income countries.”

Under the approach indicated above, certain countries would qualify for inclusion in more than one of these subgroups but are classified in only one of them according to their more predominant characteristics for purposes of analysis. Thus, India, which would qualify as a “major exporter of manufactures,” and China, which to date has been a net exporter of oil, are both classified as low-income countries (within the oil importing subgroup) in this report.

Except where otherwise specifically indicated, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and other non-member countries of Eastern Europe, Cuba, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are excluded from the following tables. Also, it has not been possible to include in the tables a number of small countries or territories for which trade and payments data are not available.

Domestic Economic Activity and Prices

Table 1.

Industrial Countries: Changes in Output and Prices, 1967–851

(In percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years. For classification of countries in groups shown here, see the introduction to this appendix.

Compound annual rates of change.

GDP at market prices.

Table 2.

Developing Countries: Changes in Output, 1967–851

(In percent)

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For classification of countries in groups shown here, see the introduction to this appendix.

Compound annual rates of change. Excludes China.

Arithmetic averages of country growth rates weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years.

Table 3.

Developing Countries: Changes in Consumer Prices, 1967–851

(In percent)

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For classification of countries in groups shown here, see the introduction to this appendix.

Compound annual rates of change. Excludes China.

Geometric averages of country indices, weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years.

Table 4.

Industrial Countries: Changes in Real Total Domestic Demand, 1967–851

(In percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the previous three years. For classification of countries in groups shown here, see the introduction to this appendix.

Compound annual rates of change.

Table 5.

Major Industrial Countries: Changes in Real GNP and Components, 1977–851

(In percent)

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Averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Changes expressed as a percentage of GNP in the preceding period.

Table 6.

Major Industrial Countries: Employment and Unemployment, 1967–851

(In percent)

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The figures in the table are not comparable among countries since they are based on the differing labor force definitions and concepts used by the respective national statistical agencies.

Figures for 1967 to 1976 have been adjusted by the staff to allow for a discontinuity in Italian labor force statistics.

National unemployment rates weighted by labor force in the respective countries.

Table 7.

Industrial Countries: Changes in Consumer Prices, 1967–851

(In percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years. For classification of countries in groups shown here, see the introduction to this appendix.

Compound annual rates of change.

Table 8.

Major Industrial Countries: Fiscal Balances and Impulses, 1977–851

(In percent of GNP)

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For the definition of the fiscal impulse measure, see April 1984 World Economic Outlook, Supplementary Note 1. Data have been converted where necessary from a fiscal to a calendar year basis for ease of comparison. Composites for the country groups are weighted averages of the individual country ratios, with weights in each year proportionate to the U.S. dollar value of the respective GNPs in the preceding year.

Data for Canada are on a national income accounts basis.

Data for Japan cover the consolidated operations of the general account, certain special accounts, social security transactions, and disbursements of the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (FILP), except those to financial institutions. Japanese data other than FILP transactions are based on national income accounts.

Data for France do not include social security transactions and are on an administrative basis.

Data for Italy refer to the “state sector” and cover the transactions of the state budget as well as those of several autonomous entities operating at the state level. They also include the deficit of the social security institutions and part of that of local authorities.

Data are on a national income basis except for the United Kingdom.

Data for the United Kingdom are on a cash basis and exclude net lending.