Methodological and Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
20 Apr 2022
Keywords:
imputed interest; potential GDP; territory government; authorities' number; General government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Africa; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; Middle East; headline balance
Download PDF (763.4 KB)

Abstract

This appendix comprises four sections. “Data and Conventions” describes the data and conventions used to calculate economy group composites. “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” summarizes the country-specific assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2022–27. “Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data” summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the Fiscal Monitor and details the coverage and accounting practices underlying each country’s Fiscal Monitor data. Statistical tables on key fiscal variables complete the appendix. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through April 8, 2022.

EDITOR’S NOTE (4/20/22)

Projections for Ukraine in 2022 and beyond, in Tables A9 through A15 and Table A24, are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.

This appendix comprises four sections. “Data and Conventions” describes the data and conventions used to calculate economy group composites. “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” summarizes the country-specific assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2022–27. “Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data” summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the Fiscal Monitor and details the coverage and accounting practices underlying each country’s Fiscal Monitor data. Statistical tables on key fiscal variables complete the appendix. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through April 8, 2022.

Data and Conventions

Country-specific data and projections for key fiscal variables are based on the April 2022 World Economic Outlook database, unless indicated otherwise, and compiled by IMF staff. Historical data and projections are based on the information IMF country desk officers gather in the context of their missions and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country; data are updated continually as more information becomes available. Structural breaks in data may be adjusted to produce smooth series through splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates serve as proxies when complete information is unavailable. As a result, Fiscal Monitor data may differ from official data in other sources, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics and the Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2014).

Sources for fiscal data and projections not covered by the World Economic Outlook database are listed in the respective tables and figures.

Country classification in the Fiscal Monitor divides the world into three major groups: 39 advanced economies, 96 emerging market and middle-income economies, and 59 low-income developing countries. Fiscal Monitor tables display 35 advanced economies, 40 emerging market and middle-income economies, and 40 low-income developing countries. The countries in the tables generally represent the largest countries within each group based on the size of their GDP in current US dollars. Data for the full list of economies can be found at https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/FM. The seven largest advanced economies as measured by GDP (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though membership has increased over time. Data for most European Union (EU) member countries have been revised following their adoption of the updated European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010). Low-income developing countries are countries that have per capita income levels below a certain threshold (set at $2,700, as of 2016, as measured by the World Bank Atlas method), structural features consistent with limited development and structural transformation, and external financial relationships insufficiently open for the countries to be considered emerging market economies. Emerging market and middle-income economies include those not classified as advanced economies or low-income developing countries. See Table A, Economy Groupings, for more details.

Most fiscal data for advanced economies refer to the general government, whereas data for emerging market and developing economies often refer to only the central government or the budgetary central government (for specific details, see Tables B–D). All fiscal data refer to calendar years, except in the cases of The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bhutan, Botswana, Dominica, Egypt, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Fiji, Haiti, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jamaica, Lesotho, Malawi, the Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia, Myanmar, Namibia, Nauru, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Puerto Rico, Rwanda, Samoa, Singapore, St. Lucia, Thailand, Tonga, and Trinidad and Tobago, for which they refer to the fiscal year. For economies whose fiscal years end before June 30, data are recorded in the previous calendar year. For economies whose fiscal years end on or after June 30, data are recorded in the current calendar year.

Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of individual-country data, unless specified otherwise. Data are weighted by annual nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates as a share of the group GDP.

For the purpose of data reporting in the Fiscal Monitor, the Group of Twenty (G20) member aggregate refers to the 19 country members and does not include the European Union.

In most advanced economies, and in some large emerging market and middle-income economies, fiscal data follow the GFSM 2014 or are produced using a national accounts methodology that follows the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) or ESA 2010, both broadly aligned with the GFSM 2014. Most other countries follow the GFSM 2001, but some countries, including a significant proportion of low-income developing countries, have fiscal data based on the 1986 GFSM. The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing by the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. Whereas attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, data limitations or specific country circumstances can cause these data to deviate from the formal definitions. Although every effort is made to ensure the debt data are relevant and internationally comparable, differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the data are not universally comparable. As more information becomes available, changes in either data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that are sometimes substantial.

As used in the Fiscal Monitor, the term “country” does not always refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, “country” also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained separately and independently.

Australia: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and the United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees defined-benefit pension plans.

Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Brazil: General government data refer to the non-financial public sector—which includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)—and are consolidated with data for the sovereign wealth fund. Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates. Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance. Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available only from 2003 onward. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments. Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements. Net public debt consolidates nonfinancial public sector and central bank debt. The national definition of general government gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank; except the stock of Treasury securities the central bank uses for monetary policy (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations). According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 80.3 percent of GDP at the end of 2021.

Canada: For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and the United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees defined-benefit pension plans.

Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances refer to the structural balance, which includes adjustments for output and commodity price developments.

China: Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares of contingent liabilities the government may incur, based on estimates from the National Audit Office estimate. IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for China Railway. Relative to the authorities’ definition, consolidated general government net borrowing excludes transfers to and from stabilization funds but includes state-administered funds, state-owned enterprise funds, and social security contributions and expenses, as well as some off-budget spending by local governments. Deficit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed off budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles. Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt, because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.

Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.

Dominican Republic: The fiscal series have the following coverage: the public debt, debt service, and cyclically adjusted or structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (which includes the central government, the rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank). The remaining fiscal series are for the central government.

Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Ethiopia: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Fiji: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Greece: General government gross debt follows the GFSM 2014 definition and includes the stock of deferred interest.

Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Data are on a fiscal year basis. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income. For cross-economy comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, and the United States) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees defined-benefit pension plans.

Iceland: Gross debt excludes insurance technical reserves (including pension liabilities) and other accounts payable.

India: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Iran, Islamic Republic of: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Ireland: For 2015, if the conversion of the government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank is excluded, then the fiscal balance is -1.1 percent of GDP. Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Appendix Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures. Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised as a result of restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, which resulted in a level shift of nominal and real GDP. For more information, see “National Income and Expenditure Annual Results: 2015,” http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/.

Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis.

Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics.

Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security funds, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.

Myanmar: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Nepal: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance. These variables are a percentage of non-oil potential GDP.

Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.

Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015, and 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016.

Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances account for output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: Data submissions at the cantonal and commune levels are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.

Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Turkey: The fiscal projections assume a more negative primary and overall balance than envisaged in the authorities’ New Economic Program 2021–23 (September 2020), partly from deterioration in the growth outlook related to the COVID-19 pandemic and partly from definitional differences. Projections in the World Economic Outlook and Fiscal Monitor are based on the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items included in the authorities’ headline balance.

Turkmenistan: Staff estimates, and projections of the fiscal balance exclude receipts from domestic bond issuances as well as privatization operations, in line with GFSM 2014. The authorities’ official estimates, which are compiled using domestic statistical methodologies, include bond issuance and privatization proceeds as part of government revenues.

United States: For cross-economy comparability, expenditures and fiscal balances are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States but not for countries that have not adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In addition, gross and net debt levels reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and national statistical agencies for other economies that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude the unfunded pension liabilities of government employees defined-benefit pension plans.

Uruguay: Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes the central government, the local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. Because of this narrower coverage, central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data.

Venezuela: Fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government, social security funds, FOGADE (insurance deposit institution), and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates.

Fiscal Policy Assumptions

Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2022 World Economic Outlook, unless noted otherwise. For underlying assumptions other than on fiscal policy, see the April 2022 World Economic Outlook.

Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. Medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures judged likely to be implemented. When IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.

Afghanistan: All data and projections for 2021–27 are omitted because of an unusually high degree of uncertainty and given that the IMF has paused its engagement with the country due to a lack of clarity within the international community regarding the recognition of a government in Afghanistan.

Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal government, on fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and on IMF staff mac-roeconomic projections.

Australia: Fiscal projections are based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the FY2022/23 budget published by the Commonwealth Government in March 2022, the FY2021/22 budget published by each state/territory government, the FY2021/22 budget update published by some state governments, and the IMF staff’s estimates and projections.

Austria: Fiscal projections are based on the 2022 budget, the Austria Stability Programme, Austria National Reform Programme 2021, the new EU recovery funds, and the latest announcement on fiscal measures.

Belgium: Projections are based on the 2021–24 Stability Program, the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2022, and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.

Brazil: Fiscal projections for 2022 reflect policy announcements.

Cambodia: Historical fiscal and monetary data are from the Cambodian authorities. Projections are based on IMF staff’s assumptions following discussions with the authorities.

Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts from the Federal Budget 2022 and the latest provincial budgets. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to these forecasts, including for differences in macro-economic projections. The IMF staff’s forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s National Economic Accounts, including quarterly federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns.

Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect IMF staff’s projections for GDP, copper prices, depreciation, and inflation.

China: After a significant tightening in 2021, the pace of fiscal tightening is projected to slow in 2022 based on Article IV consultation findings and public statements by the authorities.

Colombia: Projections are based on the authorities’ policies and projections reflected in the 2022 Financing Plan and the 2021 Medium-Term Fiscal Framework, adjusted to reflect IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions.

Croatia: Projections are based on the macroeconomic framework and the authorities’ medium-term fiscal guidelines.

Cyprus: Projections are based on IMF staff assessments of authorities’ budget plans and IMF staff macroeconomic assumptions.

Czech Republic: Projections are based on the authorities’ latest available convergence program, budget, and medium-term fiscal framework, as well as IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework.

Denmark: Estimates for the current year are aligned with the latest official budget numbers, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. Beyond the current year, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ latest budget. Structural balances are net of temporary fluctuations in some revenues (for example, North Sea revenue, pension yield tax revenue) and one-offs (COVID-19– related one-offs are, however, included).

Ecuador: Fiscal sector projections are excluded from publication for 2022–27 because of ongoing program review discussions. The authorities are undertaking revisions of the historical fiscal data with technical support from the IMF.

Egypt: Fiscal projections are based mainly on budget sector operations. Projections are based on the budget for FY2021/22 and IMF staff’s macroeconomic outlook.

Estonia: The forecast incorporates the authorities’ approved supplementary budget for 2021, and the approved budget for 2022, adjusted for newly available information (e.g., measures to mitigate the impact of higher energy costs; and the impact of the war in Ukraine) for Staff’s macroeconomic scenario.

Finland: Projections for 2021 onward are based on the measures of the 2018–21 budget laws and the draft-amending budget law presented in June 2021, adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro-economic and financial variables and in revenue projections.

France: Projections for 2022 onward are based on the measures of the 2018–22 budget laws adjusted for differences in revenue projections and assumptions on macroeconomic and financial variables.

Germany: IMF staff’s projections for 2022 and beyond are based on the provisional 2022 budget, the federal government’s medium-term budget plan, and data updates from the national statistical agency (Destatis) and the ministry of finance, adjusted for differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.

Greece: Data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance framework for Greece.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections of expenditures.

Hungary: Fiscal projections include IMF staff projections of the macroeconomic framework and fiscal policy plans announced in the 2020 budget.

India: Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding disinvestment and license-auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending. Starting in FY2020/21 expenditure also includes the of-budget component of food subsidies consistent with the revised treatment of food subsidies in the budget. The IMF staff adjusts expenditure to take out payments for previous years’ food subsidies, which are included as expenditure in budget estimates for FY2020/21.

Indonesia: The IMF staff’s projections are based on moderate tax policy and administration reforms, some expenditure realization, and a gradual increase in capital spending over the medium term in line with fiscal space.

Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Budget 2022.

Israel: Projections differ from the authorities’ medium-term budget targets and assume more modest spending cuts.

Italy: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are informed by the fiscal plans included in the government’s 2022 budget and the April 2022 Document on the Economy and Finance. The stock of maturing postal bonds is included in the debt projections.

Japan: The projections reflect fiscal measures already announced by the government, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.

Kazakhstan: Fiscal projections are based on the budget code and IMF staff projections.

Korea: The forecast incorporates the overall fiscal balance in the 2022 annual budget and supplementary budget, the medium-term fiscal plan announced with the 2022 budget, and the IMF staff’s adjustments.

Lebanon: Projections for 2021–27 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.

Libya: Staff judgement based on 2021 fiscal accounts.

Malaysia: Fiscal projections are based on budget numbers, discussions with the authorities, and IMF staff estimates.

Malta: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget documents and the latest Stability Programme, as well as on other recently adopted fiscal measures, adjusted for staff’s macroeconomic and other assumptions.

Mexico: The 2020 public sector borrowing requirements estimated by the IMF staff adjusts for some statistical discrepancies between above-the-line and below-the-line numbers. Fiscal projections for 2022 are informed by the estimates in the 2022 budget proposal; projections for 2023 onward assume continued compliance with rules established in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Moldova: Fiscal projections are based on various bases and growth rates for GDP, consumption, imports, wages, and energy prices and on demographic changes.

Myanmar: Fiscal projections are based on budget numbers and the changed macro environment.

The Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2021–27 are based on the IMF staff’s forecast framework and are also informed by the authorities’ draft budget plan and Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis projections.

New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2021 and the IMF staff estimates.

Nigeria: Fiscal projections assume unchanged policies and differ from the authorities’ active policy scenario.

Norway: Fiscal projections are based on the 2021 budget and subsequent ad hoc updates.

Philippines: Revenue projections reflect IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. Expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, and current data in each year.

Poland: Data are based on the ESA 95 for 2004 and earlier. Data are based on the ESA 2010 beginning in 2005 on an accrual basis. Data for 2021 are estimates based on the 2021 budget and estimated COVID-19–related expenditures for the year. Projections begin in 2022, based on the 2022 budget and subsequent temporary tax relief measures known as the Anti-Inflation Shield.

Portugal: The projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.

Romania: Fiscal projections reflect legislated changes up to the end of 2021. Medium-term projections include a gradual implementation of measures supported through the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (Next Generation EU).

Russian Federation: The fiscal rule has been suspended by the government in response to the sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. The projection assumes an increase in discretionary spending as well as discretionary tax reductions which, combined, equal to the oil and gas revenues that would have been saved under the fiscal rule. The remaining decline in tax revenues is due to the projected deep recession.

Saudi Arabia: The IMF staff’s baseline fiscal projections are primarily based on its understanding of government policies as outlined in the 2022 budget. Export oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil price assumptions and the IMF staff’s understanding of current oil policy under the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russian Federation and other non-OPEC oil exporters) agreement.

Singapore: FY2020 figures are based on budget execution. FY2021 projections are based on revised figures based on budget execution through end-2021. FY 2022 projections are based on the initial budget of February 18, 2022. The IMF staff assumes gradual withdrawal of remaining pandemic-related measures and the implementation of various revenue measures announced in the FY2022 budget for the remainder of the projection period. These include (i) the increase of the Good and Services Tax (GST) from seven percent to eight percent on January 1, 2023, and to nine percent on January 1, 2024; (ii) the increase of the property tax in 2023 for non-owner-occupied properties (from 10–20 percent to 12–36 percent) and owner-occupied properties with an annual value in excess of $30,000 (from 4–16 percent to 6–32 percent); and (iii) the increase of the carbon tax from S$5 per tonne to S$25 per tonne in 2024 and 2025 and $45 per tonne in 2026 and 2027.

Slovak Republic: The fiscal projection is based on the 2022 budget but considers available data for 2021.

Spain: Fiscal projections from 2022 onwards assume no policy changes beyond the temporary support package announced in 2022.

Sri Lanka: Fiscal projections are based on IMF staff assessments.

Sweden: Fiscal estimates for 2021 are based on preliminary information on the fall 2020 budget bill. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the 2014 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development elasticity1 to take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: The authorities’ announced discretionary stimulus—as reflected in the fiscal projections for 2021 and 2022—is permitted within the context of the debt brake rule in the event of “exceptional circumstances.”

Tunisia: Projections are excluded from publication for 2023–27 because of ongoing technical discussions pending potential program negotiations.

Turkey: The basis for the projections in the WEO and Fiscal Monitor is the IMF-defined fiscal balance, which excludes some revenue and expenditure items that are included in the authorities’ headline balance.

Ukraine: Projections for 2022–27 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.

United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the latest GDP data published by the Office of National Statistics on March 31, 2022, and forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility from March 23, 2022. Revenue projections are adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections. Projections include the fiscal policy measures included in the Spring Statement 2022 published by the Treasury on March 23, 2022. The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks. Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility. Data are presented on a calendar year basis.

United States: Fiscal projections are based on the July 2021 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of the legislated Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act; the American Rescue Plan; the Coronavirus Preparedness and Response Supplemental Appropriations Act; the Families First Coronavirus Response Act; the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act; and the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and of defined-benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis.

Venezuela: Projections for 2022–27 are omitted due to an unusual high degree of uncertainty.

Vietnam: Projections starting 2021 use authorities’ 2021 budget numbers and staff own projections.

Yemen: Hydrocarbon revenue projections are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for hydrocarbon prices and authorities’ projections for oil and gas production. Nonhydrocarbon revenues largely reflect authorities’ projections and the evolution of other key indicators. Over the medium term, we assume conflict resolution, a recovery in economic activity, and additional expenditures associated with reconstruction costs.

Zambia: General government net and gross debt projections for 2022–27 are omitted due to ongoing debt restructuring.

Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data

Table A.

Economy Groupings

The following groupings of economies are used in the Fiscal Monitor. Data for all the economies can be found here: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/FM

article image
article image
article image
article image
Note: G7 = Group of Seven; G20 = Group of Twenty.

Does not include European Union aggregate.

Table B.

Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

article image
Note: Coverage: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments. Accounting practice: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

ln many economies, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

“Nominal” refers to debt securities that are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. “Face” refers to the undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. “Current market” refers to debt securities that are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies for their market prices.

Table C.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

article image
Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting standard: A = accrual; C = cash; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

ln many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

“Nominal” refers to debt securities that are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. “Face” refers to the undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. “Current market” refers to debt securities that are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies of their market prices.

Gross debt refers to general government public debt, including publicly guaranteed debt.

Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank. The overall balance combines the cash primary balance of the nonfinancial public sector and the net interest of the public sector on an accrual basis.

Revenue is recorded on a cash basis and expenditure on an accrual basis.

Coverage for South Africa is the consolidated government, which serves as a good proxy for the general government. It includes the national and provincial governments and certain public entities, while local governments are only partly covered. The subnational government debt is estimated to be limited given the available data from the South African Reserve Bank.

Data for Thailand do not include the debt of specialized financial institutions (SFIs/NMPC) without a government guarantee.

Gross debt covers banking system claims only.

The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government, social security, FOGADE (an insurance deposit institution), and a sample of public enterprises, including Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Data for 2018–21 are IMF staff estimates.

Table D.

Low-Income Developing Countries: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

article image
Note: Coverage: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting standard: A = accrual; C = cash; CB = commitments based; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

ln many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending and borrowing of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

“Nominal” refers to debt securities that are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. “Face” refers to the undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. “Current market” refers to debt securities that are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies of their market prices.

Haiti’s fiscal balance and debt data cover the central government, special funds and programs (Fonds d’Entretien Routier and Programme de Scolarisation Universelle, Gratuite, et Obligatoire), and the state-owned electricity company EDH.

Lao RD.R.’s fiscal spending includes capital spending by local governments financed by loans provided by the central bank.

0veralI and primary balances in 2012 are based on monetary statistics and are different from the balances calculated from expenditure and revenue data.

Uzbekistan’s listing includes the Fund for Reconstruction and Development.

Table A1.

Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

Data include financial sector support. For Cyprus, 2014 and 2015 balances exclude financial sector support.

For cross-economy comparison, the expenditures and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in economies that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may therefore differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A2.

Advanced Economies: General Government Primary Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: “Primary balance” is defined as the overall balance, excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

Data include financial sector support. For Cyprus, 2014 and 2015 balances exclude financial sector support.

For cross-economy comparison, the expenditures and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in economies that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may therefore differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A3.

Advanced Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of potential GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

Data are based on the fiscal-year based potential GDP.

Data for these economies include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

For cross-economy comparison, the expenditures and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in economies that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may therefore differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A4.

Advanced Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of potential GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: “Cyclically adjusted primary balance” is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. For economy-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

Data are based on the fiscal-year based potential GDP.

The data for these economies include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

For cross-economy comparison, expenditures and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in economies that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may therefore differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A5.

Advanced Economies: General Government Revenue, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For economy-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.
Table A6.

Advanced Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For economy-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

For cross-economy comparison, expenditures and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in economies that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may therefore differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A7.

Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For economy-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table B.

For cross-economy comparison, gross debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Table A8.

Advanced Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For economy-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

For cross-economy comparison, net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for economies that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, and the United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Belgium’s net debt series has been revised to ensure consistency between liabilities and assets. “Net debt” is defined as gross debt (Maastricht definition) minus assets in the form of currency and deposits, loans, and debt securities.

Net debt figures were revised to only include categories of assets corresponding to the liabilities covered by the Maastricht definition of “gross debt.”

“Net debt” for Iceland is defined as gross debt minus currency and deposits.

“Net debt” for Ireland is defined as gross general debt minus debt instrument assets, namely, currency and deposits, debt securities, and loans. Net debt was previously defined as general government debt less currency and deposits.

Norway’s net debt series has been revised because of a change in the net debt calculation, which excludes the equity and shares from financial assets and includes accounts receivable in the financial assets, following the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 and the Maastricht definition.

Table A9.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are revising the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revised and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also working on reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

The general government overall balance in 2019 includes a one-off refund of tax arrears in 2019 of 2.4 percent of GDP.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Starting in October 2018, the public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 have been affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and are projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF country report No. 19/64 for further details. The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.

Table A10.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Primary Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: “Primary balance” is defined as the overall balance, excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF Staff, are revising historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revisited and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

The numbers are based on nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Interest revenue is proxied by IMF staff estimates of investment income. The country team does not have the breakdown of investment income between interest revenue and dividends.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Starting in October 2018, the public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 have been affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and are projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF country report No. 19/64 for further details. The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.

Table A11.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of potential GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

Data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are revising the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revisited and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Starting in October 2018, the public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 have been affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and are projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF country report No. 19/64 for further details.

Table A12.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of potential GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: “Cyclically adjusted primary balance” is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

Data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are revising the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revised and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Starting in October 2018, the public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 have been affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and are projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for further details.

Table A13.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Revenue, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are revising the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revised and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Starting in October 2018, the public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–21 have been affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.2 percent of GDP in 2018 and 1.1 percent of GDP in 2019, and are projected to be 0.6 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021, and zero thereafter. See IMF Country Report No. 19/64 for further details. The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.

Table A14.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

The data for Ecuador reflect net lending/borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are revising the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector to correct recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported in the table for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while data for earlier years are still being revised and will be corrected in subsequent World Economic Outlook releases as far back as 2012. The authorities are also reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing data.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly.

Table A15.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

“Gross debt” refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras and including sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.

In late 2016, the authorities changed the definition of “debt” to a consolidated basis, which in 2016 was 11.5 percent of GDP lower than the previous aggregate definition. Both the historic and projection numbers are now presented on a consolidated basis.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly.

Table A16.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table C. MENA = Middle East and North Africa.

These numbers are based on the nominal GDP series before the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly.

Table A17.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Overall Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.
Table A18.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Primary Balance, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: “Primary balance” is defined as the overall balance, excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.
Table A19.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Revenue, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.
Table A20.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Expenditure, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.
Table A21.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Gross Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.

Debt includes overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria and liabilities of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria.

From 2017 onward, Senegal data include the whole of the public sector, whereas before 2017, only central government debt stock was taken into account.

Table A22.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Net Debt, 2013–27

(Percent of GDP)

article image
Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessments of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text and Table D.

Debt includes overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria and liabilities of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria. The overdrafts and government deposits at the Central Bank of Nigeria almost cancel each other out, and the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria debt is roughly halved.

Table A23.

Advanced Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except when indicated otherwise)

article image
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.R; Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All economy averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. When authorities’ estimates are not available, IMF staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta’s Equitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). These pension spending projections may be different from the previous edition of the Fiscal Monitor because of new baseline pension numbers, new authorities’ projections, or updated demographic data from the UN World Population Prospects.

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each economy.

IMF staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographics and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed to start at the economy-specific historical average and converge to the advanced economy historical average by 2050 (0.6 percent).

These health expenditure projections have been updated to include: (1) new available underlying health and economic data; (2) technical adjustments to the Excess Cost Growth calculation and the age-expenditure profiles; (3) exclusion of health expenditure growth during the COVID-19 period in the underlying trend expenditure growth estimate.

“Gross financing need” is defined as the projected overall deficit and maturing government debt in 2022. For most economies, data on maturing debt refer to central government securities. Data are from Bloomberg Finance L.R and IMF staff projections.

For most economies, the average-term-to-maturity data refer to central government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are for the third quarter of 2021 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some economies, tradable instruments in the Joint External Debt Hub are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency then taken as a percentage of the 2021 gross general government debt.

Singapore’s general government debt is covered by financial assets and is issued to deepen the domestic market, meet the Central Provident Fund’s investment needs, and provide individuals with a long-term savings option.

Table A24.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except when indicated otherwise)

article image
Sources: Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. When authorities’ estimates are not available, IMF staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta’s Equitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). These pension spending projections may be different from the previous edition of the Fiscal Monitor because of new baseline pension numbers, new authorities’ projections, or updated demographic data from the UN World Population Prospects.

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each economy.

IMF staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographics and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed to be the income group historical average (1.2 percent).

These health expenditure projections have been updated to include: (1) new available underlying health and economic data; (2) technical adjustments to the Excess Cost Growth calculation and the age-expenditure profiles; (3) exclusion of health expenditure growth during the COVID-19 period in the underlying trend expenditure growth estimate.

“Gross financing need” is defined as the projected overall balance and maturing government debt in 2022. Data are from IMF staff projections.

Average-term-to-maturity data refer to government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are the third quarter of 2021 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some countries, tradable instruments in the Joint External Debt Hub are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency then taken as a percentage of 2021 gross general government debt.

The average-term-to-maturity data for Turkey is in accordance with the published data for central government debt securities as of July 2021.

Data are for the nonfinancial public sector, which includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. The coverage of fiscal data was changed from the consolidated public sector to the nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 submission. With this narrower coverage, the central bank balances are not included in the fiscal data. Historical data were also revised accordingly.

Table A25.

Low-Income Developing Countries: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except when indicated otherwise)

article image
Sources: Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. When authorities’ estimates are not available, IMF staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta’s Equitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). These pension spending projections may be different from the previous edition of the Fiscal Monitor because of new baseline pension numbers, new authorities’ projections, or updated demographic data from the UN World Population Prospects.

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each economy.

IMF staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographics and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed to be the income group historical average (1.2 percent).

These health expenditure projections have been updated to include: (1) new available underlying health and economic data; (2) technical adjustments to the Excess Cost Growth calculation and the age-expenditure profiles; (3) exclusion of health expenditure growth during the COVID-19 period in the underlying trend expenditure growth estimate.

The average-term-to-maturity data refer to government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are for the third quarter of 2021 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some countries, tradable instruments in the Joint External Debt Hub are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency, then taken as a percentage of 2021 gross general government debt.

1

Robert Price, Tai-Tanh Dang, and Yvan Guillemette. 2014. “New Tax and Expenditure Elasticity Estimates for EU Budget Surveillance,” OECD Economics Department Working Paper 1174. OECD Publishing, Paris.

Within Same Series

Other IMF Content

Other Publishers Content

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover Fiscal Monitor, April 2022
Fiscal Monitor, April 2022
Fiscal Policy from Pandemic to War
ISBN:
9781513598789
ISSN:
2219-276X
Publication Date:
20 Apr 2022
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513598789.089
Pages:
124