Chapter 7 Addressing Corruption in Fragile Country Settings
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Sebastiaan Pompe
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Abstract

This chapter explores the role of corruption in the multidimensional sources and symptoms of fragility, focusing on countries in chronic or extreme fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. After a brief overview of definitions and applicable standards, it focuses on how international financial institutions have approached the issue. The chapter takes the example of the IMF, examining the efforts within the institution to balance, on the one hand, assisting fragile countries to improve access to international markets by lifting their macroeconomic frameworks to international standards, with, on the other hand, a country-based approach emphasizing institutional resilience. The chapter explores the increasing prominence of governance and anticorruption measures in the IMF’s engagement with members over the past decade, and the growing emphasis on country-tailored approaches.

Abstract

This chapter explores the role of corruption in the multidimensional sources and symptoms of fragility, focusing on countries in chronic or extreme fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. After a brief overview of definitions and applicable standards, it focuses on how international financial institutions have approached the issue. The chapter takes the example of the IMF, examining the efforts within the institution to balance, on the one hand, assisting fragile countries to improve access to international markets by lifting their macroeconomic frameworks to international standards, with, on the other hand, a country-based approach emphasizing institutional resilience. The chapter explores the increasing prominence of governance and anticorruption measures in the IMF’s engagement with members over the past decade, and the growing emphasis on country-tailored approaches.

Introduction

Understanding of the causes of state fragility and of the relationship between fragility and corruption has deepened over the years. The persistence of fragility has created awareness that fragile countries are not just “harder cases of development,” but a distinct typology in which “weakened governance, corruption and insecurity” translate into a breakdown of the normal development process, and not solely into lower economic growth (Zoellick 2008). Corruption is a “symbiotic” part of the multidimensional frame of reference developed by the World Bank and the OECD (GIZ 2020, p. 9). Its link with fragility is pronounced. The economic impact of corruption in fragile countries is well established (IMF 2017; 2018b), and the association of fragility with poor governance, high levels of corruption, and depressed or negative economic growth, investment, tax revenues (Figure 7.1), and human development outcomes are severe and long-lasting. The link between corruption and fragility has become more concentrated over time, as has the link between fragility and poverty (Hammadi, A., M. Mills, N. Sobrinho, V. Thakoor, and R. Velloso 2019).

Figure 7.1.
Figure 7.1.

Corruption and Tax Revenues1

Sources: Transparency International; and IMF staff estimates.Note: Samples include commodity importers only. Asterisks from the correlation equation imply significance at 1 percent.1 Variables presented are deviations from values predicted by income level.2 Larger numbers indicate lower perceived levels of public sector corruption.

These relationships are particularly valid in sub-Saharan Africa. Half of the weakest scores in the 2020 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index were received by fragile countries in the region. Given the corrosive effect of corruption on state legitimacy and the effectiveness of its institutions, addressing it is increasingly recognized as a necessary precondition to development, poverty reduction, and exiting fragility.

Progress on addressing fragility remains brittle and difficult to sustain, and progress on anticorruption efforts remains nonlinear. OECD (2020a) finds significant slippage in efforts regarding United Nations SDG 16 (which seeks to support peace, justice, and strong institutions, including through anticorruption measures), observing that progress toward meeting the indicator has stagnated or regressed since 2018. Similarly, the 2020 Ibrahim Index of African Governance finds that progress on governance in Africa has slowed in the past five years. For 2020, for the first time in a decade, the report finds that the aggregate score for all countries had declined on a year-to-year basis.

The COVID-19 health and economic crisis will aggravate an already challenging situation. The infrastructure needed to address the immediate challenges, from health care to access to vaccines, is weak in all fragile states. The WHO in November 2020 found that a significant majority of African countries lack the capacity to respond to the epidemic.1 The projected increasing inequalities and their corrosive effects on fragile peace settings are expected to be compounded by the reduced abilities of the authorities to respond due to a narrowing of the tax base (OECD 2020b), despite some upbeat reports (Akitoby, B., J. Honda and K. Primus 2020). Critically, weaknesses in health sectors in fragile states are often the outcome of broader governance shortcomings and cannot be addressed in isolation.

This chapter explores potential avenues for reducing corruption in fragile countries in sub-Saharan Africa. It begins by setting out the characteristics and dynamics of fragility in the region. The next section focuses on the corruption dimension of fragility, looking specifically at the domestic roots. In the following section, the chapter considers how international organizations have engaged on anticorruption in fragile contexts. Taking the IMF as an example, the chapter examines how the institution has aimed for an economic growth model in past years while seeking to define a bigger role for institutional resilience going forward. The first approach maximizes access to international markets by emphasizing best-practice institutional models. The second aims at building sustainable and resilient institutions through an engagement that builds on the domestic context. Finally, the chapter offers suggestions to support consequential and outcome-oriented anticorruption efforts in fragile spaces.

Fragility in Sub-Saharan Africa

The causes of fragility are multidimensional—with a diverse group of states qualified as fragile (Harsch 2020)—and debates on the definition of fragility are still ongoing (Chayes 2016; Saeed 2020). IMF (2015a) mentions four factors of fragility: (1) a lack of a common vision and inclusiveness; (2) weak governance and ineffective institutions; (3) underdevelopment, lack of education, and lack of employment opportunities; and (4) conflict and political instability. Both the OECD and the World Bank use comparable factors: the OECD focuses on economic, environmental, political, security, and societal aspects, and the World Bank focuses on economic policies for social inclusion and equity and on public sector management and institutions. The OECD States of Fragility reports and the World Bank Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Index identify fragility based on the assessment score and on data derived from international peacekeeping operations (Box 7.1).

Categories of Fragility1

  • Fragile countries: Countries identified by the World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD as fragile. The World Bank 2020 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations includes 37 countries; the IMF Fragile States list includes 42 countries, and the OECD Fragility Framework covers 57 countries. In the IMF list, 22 out of 42 countries are from the sub-Saharan Africa region.2 (See Annex 7.1.)

  • Chronically fragile countries: Countries that have been fragile for a prolonged period (countries listed in the OECD reports on fragility since 2005). There are 27 of these countries worldwide, of which 18 are in the sub-Saharan Africa region (OECD 2018, 26).3

  • Extremely fragile countries: Countries that are extremely fragile according to the OECD scoring system. There are 13 of these countries worldwide, of which 8 are in the sub-Saharan Africa region (OECD 2020a, p. 23–24).4

1 The World Bank and IMF do not rank fragile countries, and as a result do not use terms that classify forms of fragility, such as “extreme fragility,” which is an OECD concept. Also, while the World Bank and IMF indices show chronic fragility, in the sense that countries are listed consistently as fragile (Figure 7.2), the term is used mostly by the OECD. 2 This figure is based on the IMF list, not the regional classification of the organization. The institutional organization does not include in sub-Saharan Africa countries such as Sudan and Somalia (not part of the IMF’s sub-Saharan African country list). See IMF (2019), Updated List of Fragile and Conflict-Affected States. The World Bank 2021 list of fragile and conflict-affected situations includes 20 sub-Saharan African countries. 3 The OECD is the only international organization in this group that ranks countries. For reasons of consistency, the numbers used here follow the geographic classification for sub-Saharan Africa, not the IMF regional classification. 4 For reasons of consistency, the numbers used here follow the geographic classification for sub-Saharan Africa, not the IMF regional classification.

This multidimensional definition of fragility results in a diverse group of fragile states2 and a rich and ongoing debate on the concept of fragility.3 Regardless of the definition used, state fragility is not invariably related to poverty or conflict, as 63 percent of the population in fragile states lives in middle-income countries (OECD 2020a), and the majority of fragile states have not experienced conflict in the past decade (OECD 2018). However, within this diverse community, subgroups can be distinguished in which the challenges of fragility are particularly acute. This notably includes the group of countries that are chronically fragile (fragile for a prolonged period) and extremely fragile (weakest scores in the OECD scoring system since 2016 [OECD, 2016]), and whose condition is characterized by singularly deep-rooted corruption, poverty, and conflict.

State fragility is a particular challenge for sub-Saharan Africa, where it carries common characteristics. The region hosts more than half of fragile countries worldwide, with a disproportionate number of chronically fragile countries. More than two-thirds of the sub-Saharan African countries on the IMF fragile states list for 2019 (IMF 2019) had been on that list for more than a decade—the 17 African countries on the 2020 World Bank list of fragile and conflicted-affected situations had been on these lists for 14 years (Figures 7.2 and 7.3). Similarly, 8 out of 13 countries that face extreme fragility are in sub-Saharan Africa (OECD 2020a). Further, the nexus between extreme or chronic fragility with poverty and conflict in sub-Saharan African countries is clear: all fragile countries in the region are low-income countries, and the majority (11 out of 20) face violence or have recently emerged from it (OECD 2021). The link with corruption in these countries is particularly pronounced.4

These countries have struggled to escape the fragility trap. IMF (2015a) flagged progress in a group of countries, which has since been followed by a relapse by some countries in that group, highlighting the fluid and tentative nature of achieving resilience and progress for fragile countries in sub-Saharan Africa.5 Expert analysis suggests that an exit from fragility will only take place after sustained improvement over a period of a quarter century and then only for a select group. Cilliers and Sisk (2013), for instance, have determined that of the 26 fragile countries in sub-Saharan Africa at the time, 12 might become more resilient by 2039. These reports generally point to the challenges of chronically and extremely fragile countries to escape the so-called fragility trap. The fragility trap is predicated on the interconnectedness of the drivers of political instability and minimal state capacity, which makes the transition out of fragility a precarious, complicated, and long-term journey.

Figure 7.2.
Figure 7.2.

Regional Breakdown of Fragile States in World Bank Lists

Source: World Bank, Classification of Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/brief/harmonized-list-of-fragile-situations)Note: AFR: Sub-Saharan Africa; APD: Asia and Pacific; EUR: Europe; MCD: Middle-East and Central Asia; WH: Western Hemisphere.
Figure 7.3.
Figure 7.3.

Fragility and Perception of Corruption

Source: Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index 2020 | OECD, States of Fragility 2020

Anticorruption Within the Domestic Political Equilibrium

Almost all fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa have decades-long histories of anti-corruption activities. Even if these efforts have had limited traction in establishing rule-based governance, they have left an array of laws, international commitments, state and nonstate institutions, a cadre of people both inside and outside of government with anticorruption experience, and a national discourse on corruption in fragile states. The challenge going forward is to make use of these legacies to establish durable anticorruption reforms that contribute to equity, efficiency, and societal well-being.

These local contexts show that anticorruption, for all its complexity and international ambit, is very much part of the domestic discourse in fragile states. Anticorruption efforts have strong support within the communities (and among committed public sector officials), in that corrupt practices foster universally a deep sense of injustice. This push is not just driven by poverty but also by the exclusion from access and facilities as well as by the personal grievances corruption invariably engenders (Lewis 2020). The grievances and tensions resulting from corruption can have a corrosive effect on government legitimacy and threaten its survival.

States in sub-Saharan Africa, whether fragile or not, publicly proclaim to combat corruption, are signatories of international conventions, and have anticorrup-tion programs and policies because the national discourse calls for it. These anticorruption efforts are part of the political equilibrium within countries in which vested interests seek to balance responses to societal grievances while simultaneously retaining their hold on power and access to rents and privileges. These grievances often are shared by responsible and dedicated public officials, and the tension does not simply exist between the (captured) state and society but typically plays out within state structures.

This helps explain the long roots of anticorruption efforts in sub-Saharan Africa, many of which predate the international conventions. In Nigeria the history of anticorruption-related institutions goes back to the Public Complaints Commission, established in 1975; the Independent Corrupt Practices Commission, established in 2000, continued to support these efforts. These institutions were introduced prior to important standard-setting international developments, such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) (enacted in 1977) and the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC, agreed to in 2004 which calls for an anti-corruption body (or bodies) invested with the necessary independence). Nigeria is no exception. Other sub-Saharan Africa countries have also a long-standing history of anticorruption efforts. Zimbabwe put in place comparable measures in the 1980s. Similarly, Benin’s first anticorruption commission dates from 1996 (Decree 579/1996 of December 19, 1996).

Country histories in the region suggest that anticorruption measures often are a response to domestic pressures. Even as efforts to bolster the effectiveness of anticorruption institutions in West Africa often are “not yielding the expected results” (Open Society Initiative 2016, iv), these anticorruption reforms point at a dynamic local setting, where accountability and anticorruption institutions have carved out a public role. Depending on the state and institutions, this role has included taking up and processing cases, producing reports, and generating media headlines. Admittedly, these agencies and institutions generally have been frustrated in bringing cases to a successful conclusion or achieving the oft-repeated promise of eradicating corruption, but there is a continuous interagency dynamic. Commentaries note that even in more challenging circumstances, despite “major dysfunctions,” there has been “undeniable progress in terms of running its [Niger] mechanisms and institutions” (Damiba 2016, p. 109).

Anticorruption and oversight agencies are part of this societal ecosystem. They are often a prominent voice in the domestic discourse, frequently amplified through media headlines (or responding to those). They do not operate in a void but partake with CSOs and other societal actors in a long-running societal dialogue, which can leverage their influence. This conversation often revolves around corruption scandals and allegations of corrupt behavior. Elsewhere, media and public attention focus on the inability of accountability institutions to serve their function, pointing to delays in the publication of government accounts, weak audit capacity, cursory or excessively formalistic audits, and the tendency for anticorruption investigations and prosecutions to end well short of a satisfactory conclusion.

The challenge has been to identify methods for improving governance that are fit for the difficult and unstable environment of Africa’s fragile states. The history of attempted reforms in these spaces should be sufficient to demonstrate that efforts to transform governance through the adoption of imported models distract from the hard and long task of establishing practices, rules, and organizations consistent with the local realities and thus fit for purpose to improve people’s lives.

The local roots of the anticorruption agenda are a critical factor in the political equilibrium. The task for reformers and international partners is to mobilize this underlying dynamic for reform and use their mutual knowledge base to enhance institutional resilience. Certainly, within this dynamic setting, international standards, especially those established by UNCAC, represent a key benchmark, both as a legally binding convention for public sector agencies but perhaps more so as a means for articulating aspirational values that local communities recognize and share.

The Policy Debate In International Agencies

Increased International Attention to Corruption

The approach taken by international agencies to anticorruption has been influenced by the international legal framework that governs this domain, notably UNCAC and the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption (AUCPAC). This framework sets out legal and institutional approaches to fighting corruption that are understood to be universally applicable (Open Society Initiative 2016):

  • The provisions of UNCAC impose on signatory countries (which include all fragile countries) a set of statutory commitments and the requirement to establish dedicated bodies to the prevention of corruption. The convention requires all signatory countries to enact mandatory criminalization of active and passive bribery (Article 15), active bribery of foreign public officials (Article 16), embezzlement (Article 17), laundering of proceeds of crime (Article 23) and obstruction of justice (Article 25), as well as providing for the criminal liability of legal persons (Article 26) and criminalizing participation in a criminal offense (Article 27).

  • The AUCPAC makes it mandatory for signatory countries to create anticor-ruption agencies (Article 5).

  • Similarly, specialized agencies are recommended by the FATF to curb money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Noncompliance with FATF standards may result in countries being excluded from international financial markets.

These international treaties and standards unreservedly aim at a legalistic and institution-building approach, and by their nature encourage standards-based approaches with limited consideration of the specific sociopolitical context of fragile countries.

Following the publication of the World Development Report 2011 (World Bank 2011) and the establishment of UN SDG 16, the IMF has increasingly recognized corruption as an important and integral part of the broader problem of engaging in fragile countries. The IMF approaches the topic from two angles: the first is through institutional discourse on fragile countries, in which IMF papers and reports since 2012 have become more explicit about the relevance of corruption for building institutions in fragile countries. The other is through its discourse on the macrorelevance of corruption more generally, which had a run-up of several years before being affirmed by the IMF Board in 2018 (IMF 2018b).

As a result, the IMF has become more explicit in identifying corruption as a core concern for fragile countries, including by explicit use of the term “corruption.” Some of the IMF’s early documents, such as IMF (2012), which remains the basis for IMF engagement in this area, do not mention corruption but refer to “governance” as a key challenge facing fragile countries. Governance then covers both general institutional challenges as well as possible corruption issues. This tendency to subsume corruption under the broader term of governance continued until about 2017–2018, when the IMF became more emphatic and outspoken regarding the fact that corruption is a specifically important challenge for fragile countries. The report by the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF (IEO 2018) on fragile countries frequently uses the term “corruption” as an important concept. The report openly acknowledges that the governance weaknesses that characterize fragile countries significantly increase corruption vulnerabilities. The 2018 IEO report thus places corruption at the heart of its assessment of the 2012 policy implementation on fragile countries (IMF 2012), when that policy itself does not use that term. The report also recommends IMF engagement on this issue at an early stage, albeit “with humility and patience” (p 40).

This increased focus of IMF policies and reports on corruption in fragile countries aligns with the discourse on the macrorelevance of corruption in national institutions that has emerged since 2016. IEO (2018) cites the IMF (2017) stocktaking paper on the IMF approach to governance, which calls on the organization to be franker in naming the issue. After the publication of preparatory work undertaken by the IMF (IMF 2016; Lagarde 2016; 2017), the 2017 IMF paper examines the IMF’s own institutional approach to corruption. The paper noted the high degree of correlation between corruption and economic growth, and among other things called on the institution to address the issue in a more direct manner. At the same time, high-level cases of corruption added to the urgency of addressing the issue in the policy dialogue (Box 7.2).

The ensuing 2018 IMF policy on governance affirms the macroeconomic role of corruption and gives IMF staff a mandate to engage on the topic directly, with a specific focus on six core state functions. The “Proposed Framework for Enhanced Fund Engagement” (IMF 2018b) established that the institution would rigorously engage in addressing corruption, when it was found to be mac-rocritical (i.e., affect significantly macroeconomic performance), by focusing on those state functions most relevant for economic activity. These functions, as discussed in Chapter 1, include (1) fiscal governance, (2) central bank governance and operations, (3) financial sector oversight, (4) market regulation, (5) rule of law, and (6) anti–money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism. These changes point at a firmer and more explicit institutional recognition of the role of corruption in state fragility.

High-Level Cases of Corruption Informing the Policy Debate

Several major cases have raised concerns about the prevalence of corruption and its macroeconomic impact and about the adequacy of current instruments and frameworks. Examples include the $45 million “cashgate” scandal in Malawi (2013), the pledging of 30 percent of Guinea’s subsoil mineral reserves in collateral for an unauthorized $25 million loan to a national mining company (2010), the use of external financing raised by the Mozambique State Tuna Company for purchase of military vessels (2013), and the off-budget purchase of a $40 million presidential plane and the overbilling of off-budget military supplies for $140 million in Mali (2012). The severity of these cases and their impact on the economy in all these countries resulted in a significant erosion of public trust in the authorities and undermined confidence among foreign investors. In some countries the IMF suspended its programs and external budget support stopped. These cases contributed to a broader reflection on how these corruption challenges came about and could best be addressed. They raised questions about the adequacy of the systems in place and the approaches followed to date. While each of these cases was complex and specific in its own way, three features stood out and helped shape the institutional response.

First, the cases were marked by a high degree of sophistication, which core PFM controls had been unable to prevent from occurring or had failed to identify after they occurred. Core PFM controls and reporting arrangements were purposely sidestepped through complex noncash financial transactions (government guarantees, informal loan agreements, or pledging of subsoil assets) involving extrabudgetary entities, state-owned enterprises, special-purpose vehicles, or shell companies in offshore jurisdictions. In other countries, the corruption took place within the core PFM system, with the participation and support of senior officials in a range of institutions (including the prime minister’s office; central bank; budget, treasury, and accountant general’s departments of the ministry of finance; and line ministries).

Second, cases were marked by a failure of existing domestic control systems to identify the corruption or to sanction it. In all the above cases the scandals were unveiled by the press. Third, the failure of the authorities to investigate or sanction perpetrators even after they were detected added to the concerns. In all the above cases corrective action was only taken under pressure from the international community, including via the suspension of financial support from the IMF and bilateral development partners. In some countries the authorities reimbursed fraudulent loans, but no criminal investigations or other sanctions were initiated against the perpetrators. In others, the extrabudgetary spending was incorporated into the budget, but no punitive action was taken against individuals involved in the cases.

The IMF analysis in articulating a response called for a strengthening of the PFM framework, including an adjustment of the PEFA framework as well as of domestic control systems, including supreme audit institutions.1 However, the nature of these corruption cases also raised the question of whether such measures by themselves would achieve the necessary effect, since, after all, it had been the officials tasked to administer the PFM system who had conspired to circumvent it. The analysis, therefore, reinforced the view that further steps were needed to prevent such cases in the future. Such steps notably would be directed to changing the incentives underlying the behavioral framework of key actors within the PFM system, including by enhancing the anticorruption framework. These on-the-ground realities were important background considerations to the 2018 IMF policy on governance (IMF 2018b).

Cases were, of course, not limited to sub-Saharan Africa, as there are significant concerns about the facilitating role of advanced economies. For instance, UNCTAD (2020) found that annually an estimated $88.6 billion, equivalent to 3.7 percent of Africa’s GDP (over 2013–2015), leaves the continent as illicit capital flight, in part facilitated by advanced economies. The report found, among other things, that in African countries with high illicit financial flows, governments spend 25 percent less on health and 58 percent less on education than do countries with low illicit financial flows.

1 The analysis called for bolstering the capacity and impact of supreme audit institutions and enhancing cooperation with the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions. This backdrop helps explain the subsequent increased involvement of the IMF with the supreme audit institutions during the COVID-19-related emergency finance and its intensified cooperation with the International Organization of Supreme Audit Institutions.

From Best Practices to Country-Specific Engagement

Fragile states have struggled to establish functional accountability institutions despite the assistance of international financial institutions and other development partners. Formulating higher-level objectives, such as having an effective anticorruption legal and organizational framework, is now commonly accepted; however, the main challenge has been to manage the transition from paper organizations and endemic corruption to functional accountability institutions that operate in accordance with the rule of law (World Bank 2011).

International partners increasingly recognize the corrosive effect of corruption on state legitimacy and the essential importance of front-loading support for improving the effectiveness of institutions engaged in development and poverty reduction efforts (Johnson 2016; Rose-Ackerman 2013). The WDR (World Bank 2011), the New Deal Agreement on Fragile Countries (OECD 2011), and the UN SDG 16 all agree on the need to strengthen institutions as a first step toward reducing the internal fragmentation that afflicts fragile countries. Based on reviews of the development experience to date, each of these organizations concludes that institutional stabilization and resilience is at the foundation of the transition out of fragility, in which anticorruption is key, as it touches upon the legitimacy and effectiveness of the state and its agents.

How this institutional stabilization and resilience is to be achieved in fragile states continues to be the key challenge (Commission on State Fragility, Growth, and Development 2018; World Bank 2011). For international financial institutions such as the IMF, an important underlying consideration has been the need to establish complementarity between two distinct approaches. The first approach prioritizes economic growth by maximizing access to international markets, including capital markets. It supports universal legislative and institutional models that these markets recognize. It promotes international standards and best practices, which can result in an approach designed to introduce model laws and institutions into countries. The other approach focuses on building institutions within the local context—sometimes referred to as institutional resilience. This approach taps into and engages with the networks and contextual factors of fragile states and aims at building institutions within those local contexts that are fit for function, which was the overall thrust of the World Development Report 2011 (World Bank 2011).

These different approaches cannot always be easily reconciled, notably in conditions of extreme institutional fragility. The approach that aims at stimulating economic growth by maximizing access to global capital markets, which has been the dominant approach of international financial institutions such as the IMF, often prioritizes efforts to put in place the institutions and procedures that international capital markets recognize and want. This translates into a certain uniformity in the institutions and procedures to be established (underpinned by international standards and best practices). The approach consequently is marked by a high degree of formality and technicality, with country challenges being primarily viewed in technical terms—which then also allows for these challenges to be addressed through technical means. Thus, institutional weakness is defined as the gap between prevailing rules and international standards, often focusing on weaknesses of mandate, independence, capacity, and resources. Reforms designed to respond to those weaknesses emphasize providing the support that will enable organizations to close the gap through corresponding enhancements related to statutory change, capacity building, resource allocation, and so on.

The country-specific approach focuses on the underlying causes of institutional and state fragility. These invariably are country specific. This approach emphasizes the idea that institutions cannot be strengthened without addressing those contextual factors, sometimes called networks or power equilibriums (Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development 2018; Khan, Andreoni and Roy 2016; Mason 2020). It recognizes that societal fragmentation, as a core feature of fragile states, stands in the way of establishing a civil space that allows for the development of the middle ground that underpins the development of inclusive institutions. Consequently, its approach is principally focused on establishing processes and platforms to promote civil engagement and foster the creation of a collaborative and inclusive framework. It involves a more consensus-building and incremental process within the political economy marking fragile countries.

Both approaches attempt to establish a pathway to creating functional institutions that operate in accordance with formal rules and procedures, but the dynamics of the transition process differ significantly. The economic-growth approach is premised on the idea that changes in laws and formal processes drive functional changes by tapping into an underlying independent rule-of-law and civil space. The country-specific approach is based on the idea that this civic space and rule of law are largely absent and need to be created first in order for institutions to develop an autonomous space in which to operate.

Obviously, as early IMF publications themselves have pointed out (Shah and Schacter 2004), these are not rigid categories.6 Even so, the dominant shift in international thinking on addressing fragile states generally, including on corruption, is a movement away from a simple application of international standards. The new approach features greater attention and inclusion of country-specific features, building on the evidence collected over the past half century that shows that the transplantation of rational-legal institutions onto fragile countries tends to fail (Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development 2018).

The IMF’s experience in this area illustrates the challenges in implementing the different approaches on fragile states and corruption, and the evolution in thinking. Its policies on fragile countries emphasize the importance of contextualizing engagements and programs, yet actual implementation has tended toward the economic-growth model. Thus, the 2012 “Staff Guidance Note on the Fund’s Engagement with Countries in Fragile Situations” (IMF 2012) calls on IMF staff to focus on country specificity, explicitly considering the sociopolitical context and carefully tailoring structural reforms to the fragile context. Applying such guidance means tailoring policy advice to the sociopolitical constraints faced by the authorities, aiming at enhancing social cohesion (or, at a minimum, avoiding placing undue stress on the political and social fabric), prioritizing reforms in a context of low capacity and institutional weaknesses, and adjusting implementation expectations (IMF 2015b).

Even so, the 2015 stocktaking report (IMF 2015b) finds that in actual implementation, the IMF has tended toward a technical approach marked by uniformity: “Judged by the number of quantitative targets and structural benchmarks, program design has not changed much in recent years, and is broadly comparable across fragile and non-fragile countries” (IMF 2015b, p. 1). An IMF IEO report issued three years later found the approach unchanged: it concluded that the IMF continues to treat fragile countries “almost like any other country” (IEO 2018, p. 14), and the IEO struggled to find the distinctive country-specific treatment called for in the 2012 guidance.

An OECD report noted that this was the prevalent approach of nearly all international organizations and development agencies, which offer “a standardized political support package that focuses on the technical and procedural aspects of an idealized democracy” (OECD 2017, p. 2). The challenges flagged in its reports brought the IMF in 2018 to take further concrete steps to strengthen country-specific engagement. These measures included the establishment of a permanent interdepartmental committee tasked with enhancing engagement in fragile countries by introducing country-specific strategies and strengthening capacity development, including its integration with surveillance (IMF 2018a).

This also is reflected in the institutional approach on corruption: IMF program conditionality (as well as surveillance) on preventive and repressive anticorruption in sub-Saharan African countries shows a relatively high degree of uniformity and emphasis on a limited number of institutions (Table 7.1).

The program measures are about laws and institutions. Over a period of nearly two decades (2002–2020), IMF programs for sub-Saharan Africa included 45 measures on corruption for 19 countries, which focus basically on three areas: high-level strategies and surveys (for example, in Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Tanzania); statutory compliance with UNCAC (for example, in Central African Republic, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Republic of Congo, and Tanzania); or setting up (or enhancing) anticorruption institutions. The last includes asset declarations for 17 countries (including Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Mali, Mozambique, and Uganda) and anticorruption commissions in eight countries (including Liberia, Guinea, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, and Republic of Congo). There is little distinction between country typologies, including for fragile countries.

The anticorruption measures do not distinguish between fragile countries and others. Generally, the same or very comparable measures apply to fragile states and nonfragile states. Thus, anticorruption agencies are proposed equally for nonfragile countries (for example, Kenya) and for fragile countries (for example, Chad, Liberia, Mali, and Republic of Congo). Asset declarations are similarly applied to nonfragile countries (for example, Gabon, Kenya and Uganda) and to fragile countries (for example, Central African Republic, Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar, and Mali). Corruption criminalization through compliance with the UNCAC is driven by where statutory gaps are found, rather than country typology. These gaps are prominent among fragile states (for example, Chad and Malawi), but the measure can be found equally among nonfragile countries (for example, Mozambique).

Table 7.1

IMF Program Measures on Anticorruption in Sub-Saharan Africa (2002–2020)

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Source: Monitoring of Fund Arrangements (MONA) – 2002–2020. Note: Measures in the list include prior actions, structural benchmarks, and structural performance criteria (which no longer exist) and are listed individually as reflected in IMF records: thus, a prior action or a structural benchmark on the same topic are listed as two measures.

The OECD notes that the general tendency among international organizations and development agencies to offer “a standardized political support package that focuses on the technical and procedural aspects of an idealized democracy” is “unlikely to help” (OECD 2017, i). The Cameron Commission, one of the more high-level commissions to have considered the issue in recent years, notes the broader impact of the standardized and technical approach: “IMF Programmes have adopted essentially the same framework in all countries, whether they belong to the OECD or fragile low-income countries.” (Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development 2018, p. 37). The report views this approach in fragile states to be “damaging,” (p. 38) noting that overambitious policies tend to undermine the accountability process, broadly speaking. The report calls for a major and public overhaul of the IMF approach.7 The challenges flagged in the IEO’s report, as well as the OECD’s and Cameron Commission’s reports, spurred the IMF to take further concrete steps to strengthen its country-specific engagement, of which the current discourse related to FCS is the natural follow-up.8

The Way Forward

The new IMF policy framework on corruption, notably the 2018 policy, in conjunction with the findings of the IEO’s report on fragile states (IEO 2018), has opened the door to broadening the IMF’s anticorruption approach, notably for fragile states. A broadened approach could involve a more outcome-driven engagement embedded in, and addressing, the specific country contexts that mark fragile states. A recent DFID assessment notes that the emphasis of international financial institutions on formal frameworks and institutions tends to be on process measures that skirt the key underlying issues and that carry the risk of the institutions being viewed as complicit with the authorities in adopting superficial responses and retaining the status quo (Mason 2020).

Implementational adaptation to country conditions, such as through sustained capacity development aimed at building on local networks, would bolster targeted responses and is vital to shaping reforms to fit into the actual organizational and institutional context. World Bank experts refer to “isomorphic mimicry,” which describes a setting in which countries will be willing to adopt so-called best-practice laws and institutions in order to access financial resources, yet these institutions will fail because the laws and institutions are disconnected with the country realities (Pritchett, Woolcock, and Andrews 2012). Isomorphic mimicry carries two risks: (1) an emphasis on the outward forms (institutions and laws), which camouflage a persistent lack of effective function; and (2) premature load-bearing, in which local learning, legitimacy of change, and support of key constituencies are undercut by high and unrealistic expectations for fledgling institutions, notably in fragile countries. This approach, therefore, is not just ineffectual but can end up becoming counterproductive (Khan, Andreoni, and Roy 2016).

The issue with isomorphic mimicry is not that countries are learning from the experience of others, as such, since countries tend to borrow from each other liberally. Instead, the challenge for countries in fragile states is to shift from trying to replicate foreign structures to working to establish essential functions in local conditions, in part by emulating key principles and practices that have been demonstrated to work in the past (Krause 2013). This approach might come closer to securing the elusive stabilizing and legitimizing effect called for by the World Development Report 2011 (World Bank 2011), UN SDG 16, and IMF policies on fragile states (Johnson 2016).

Considerations on how to Approach Corruption in Fragile States

Within the overarching reform objective of building institutional resilience, rather than boosting economic growth, reports and studies broadly agree on the high-level principles of how state fragility should be addressed. These principles come down to four, with implications for how to help implement good-governance and anticorruption reforms:

  • Improved understanding of the political economy (including through sustaining an in-country presence and conducting diagnostic and fragility assessments)

  • Country ownership (including by strengthening leadership and institutional buy-in, tailoring engagements to capacity, and leveraging domestic knowledge and experience bases)

  • Inclusive approach (including by broadening stakeholder participation in policymaking and institutions, by both civil society and private sector actors)

  • Coordinated support by development partners.

Deeper Understanding of the Political Economy

The “deeper understanding of the political context” that IMF (2012 p. 13) reports refer to involves identifying and engaging with the “distribution of organizational power” (Khan 2017) in fragile states. This understanding calls for immersion in the existing national discourse by engaging with the key institutional and societal agents that inform it and shape its outcome. The reforms should also build on the knowledge and, notably, problem diagnostics or analyses within these countries. Reform in that sense is not top down and institution-driven, but bottom up through a more diagnostic-based, problem-oriented, and incremental process that builds on initiatives and engagement within countries and focuses on the priorities and objectives identified as a result of this engagement.

With an eye on building state legitimacy and institutional resilience, this bottom-up approach ideally should target anticorruption reform in ways that directly benefit society (Zoellick 2008). A careful balance should be struck between a focus on high-profile cases and widespread endemic corruption, which undermines public services and market access, notably in chronic and extremely fragile states. Focusing on high-profile cases typically will challenge dominant interests, will require the mobilization of large resources with very modest success rates, and will often be distant from the day-to-day lives of citizens. While sometimes such cases must be tackled, doing so can also be disruptive in building legitimacy and resilience, and thus the approach should be carefully calibrated, notably in extremely fragile states. Conversely, an approach that focuses on service delivery will aim to improve the daily lives of citizens and can have a legitimizing effect. As an example, outside of sub-Saharan Africa, in Georgia the anticorruption reforms that targeted the traffic police significantly enhanced the legitimacy of the authorities.

It is also important to strategize anticorruption approaches by assessing their distortive impact on an economy. Khan, Andreoni and Roy (2016) notes that the distortive effect on an economy of targeting high-value corruption transactions depends on the productivity of the underlying investment. If that productivity is not too adversely affected, the impact is limited, as is typical of profit-sharing corruption. On the other hand, modest bribes, such as those related to permits, can have a major distortive effect on the economy. The latter form of corruption is harder to capture in some PFM oversight instruments, such as audits, because the PFM triggers tend to be weak. An example of this is the impact of corruption on access to birth, marriage, and death certificates, where the need to make side payments to secure these documents has a profound impact on the economic opportunities for disadvantaged communities and reduces the impact of social programs. Another example is the granting of permits in the health sector—individual bureaucratic decisions that have a potentially wide-ranging effect on health and related topics.

Ownership and Inclusiveness

An inclusive approach is critical in shoring up state legitimacy and institutional resilience. Inclusiveness in this context covers the need for broader engagement of competing interests and stakeholders, and the importance of bringing in civil society and market actors. It also translates into providing incentives that will accommodate key stakeholders.

Reforms should be tailored to balance aspirational and formal and legal objectives with the underlying incentives offered to key stakeholders. The objective should be to progressively build legitimacy and resilience, which is different from the elusive goal of establishing an idealized state setting. Ownership, therefore, should be understood as a substantive alignment of interests (Khan, Andreoni and Roy 2016). Inclusiveness also requires a form of institutional architecture that facilitates broadening stakeholder participation in procedures and institutions.

An example is the CEMAC directive on the budgetary process, which envisages the participation of both stakeholders and civil society, the importance of which is hard to overstate. Another example is CEMAC Directive 6/2011, relative au Code de transparence et de bonne gouvernance dans la gestion des finances publiques, which calls for the publication of, among other things, revenue from extractives, SOEs, and procurement, and for the participation of civil society and societal partners. This CEMAC directive has been enacted in some CEMAC countries, such as Cameroon, Chad, Gabon, and Republic of Congo, though implementation in some of these countries has been slow (Chapter 5). The EITI standards are similarly important in creating an architecture of transparency, not just internationally but domestically.

It is also important to envisage institutions as multistakeholder platforms, aiming to accommodate the often adversarial interests in fragile states. Institutions, then, are seen to serve as platforms to hash out matters in small forums, seek compromises, and build an institutional agenda and identity in the process.

This points toward more committee-based institutions (rather than single-head command structures) to prevent institutions being captured by a single dominant interest, which undermines institutional resilience and sustainability. This approach requires a trade-off between short-term functionality, on the one hand, and medium-term resilience and sustainability, on the other.

An example is the Indonesia Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA), whose committee structure was purposely aimed to create broad political ownership of the agency. In fact, under this structure, competing stakeholders (such as CSO representatives and senior police officers) became commissioners and their respective constituencies became co-owners of the agency. This ensured that for a long time important competing interests owned a share in the agency, and while criticized, none were radically opposed. The committee structure prevented partisan capture and created institutional space, as the ACA fought out battles on competing interests internally. That structure helped enhance ACA sustainability and resilience, as it continued to exist and operate effectively beyond the five-year period initially envisaged in the face of sometimes significant challenges.

In aiming for an inclusive approach, it is tempting to focus on process measures that are broadly uncontested (such as compliance with UNCAC, which calls for setting up an anticorruption agency), rather than focusing on outcomes (limiting corruption in procurement). The emphasis on criminalization and anti-corruption agencies can be somewhat removed from the actual problematic faced by citizens in their daily lives.

In most countries the number of corruption cases that can be investigated and prosecuted is limited, and the overall impact of such criminal enforcement of corruption or an economy remains tentative. Khan, Andreoni and Roy (2016) therefore advocate complementary engagements. Their more problem-oriented approach focuses on specific corruption types (for example, corruption in the central bank, the budgetary process, SOEs, fiscal systems, procurement, or extractive industries) and seeks to address them through targeted structural measures.

This approach is reflected in the constructive efforts to address corruption in strategic transactions in Somalia. While corruption remains a critical issue for the country, substantial progress has been made in increasing oversight and monitoring of high-value state contracting under the auspices of the Financial Governance Committee, a transitional structure bringing together representatives from the government of Somalia and officials from the IMF, World Bank, AfDB, and key bilateral donors, mostly in an advisory capacity (World Bank 2019). The work of the committee proved to be instrumental in stopping and forcing the retendering of the largest procurement contract in the country, with substantial savings to the country and enhanced civilian control over expenditures by the military (Davis, Farley, and Handley 2020).

International Agencies

International agencies play a critical role in addressing countries’ fragility, notably when chronic or extreme. Several considerations are significant in this regard:

  • The importance of being there: This refers to the broader concept of building understanding and relationships, which is best achieved through physical presence in the country. This would seem to be a necessary precondition to an institutional policy that calls for “a deeper understanding of the political context” (IMF 2012, p. 13). The absence of some international agencies in some fragile states has been noted and would seem to make achieving the objective of those policies harder (Manuel 2017). Several factors impact on the country presence of IFIs, including their mandates, some of which by their nature will necessitate significantly more local program engagement. IMF engagement in fragile states has been extensive, including through technical assistance (IMF 2018b).

  • The importance of multidimensional rather than single-issue engagement, tailoring, and sequencing: One of the challenges for international financial institutions and development agencies is the tendency toward single-issue engagement, such as an exclusive focus on the passage of an anticorruption law or the creation of an anticorruption agency. It is important for external partners to support a more joined-up engagement, given the multidimensional challenges of state fragility.

The policy advice should be tailored to the sociopolitical constraints faced by the authorities and should recognize that efforts to strengthen accountability have the potential to place extraordinary stress on the political accommodations and social negotiations that have established peace. This tailoring of structural reforms to the fragile context should be adjusted to reflect capacity. This calls for prioritizing reforms, factoring in capacity constraints, and managing implementation expectations. Similarly, the need for a sequenced approach that recognizes the capacity constraints, and is more prioritized, staggered, and paced, is a recurrent theme in the literature on engagement in fragile states. The development of diagnostic tools and fragility assessments should assist in achieving a good pacing of reforms, though country studies show the challenges international partners experience in addressing that issue.

  • The importance of mixed instruments, including broad-based capacity development, targeting outcomes: One of the challenges for international financial institutions is how to implement the different instruments at their disposal to help countries exit fragility. These instruments typically are surveillance, financial programs and projects (which come with conditionality), and capacity development. A sustained engagement based on a “deeper understanding of the political context” typically calls for significantly enhanced and sustained engagement within these countries, with surveillance and program support pushing that capacity development program along, rather than the reverse.

The process-oriented nature of most anticorruption measures, such as developing a plan (an anticorruption strategy, for example), passing a law (UNCAC compliance legislation, for example), or setting up an institution (an anticorruption agency, for example), typically do not address the underlying problems. International partners should be more outcome-based, with a stronger focus on the contribution of anticorruption activities to achieving better public sector performance. The corollary is that less emphasis should be placed in fragile states on stand-alone anticor-ruption achievements (such as the number of individuals sanctioned for corruption or improved public perception of the incidence of corruption).

  • The importance of local partners and triangulation and coordination: While the government is and will remain the key counterpart of international financial institutions and development partners, a more engaged approach in fragile settings calls for broadening of the engagement. This includes routine visits and direct engagement with oversight and control institutions, such as supreme audit institutions, anticorruption agencies, and enforcement agencies, to underscore the importance international financial institutions and development partners attach to these institutions, and the empowering function such visits and engagement can have. That engagement also ideally should build on reports such agencies have developed. Other societal local partners, such as professional organizations and CSOs, should be engaged to address anticorruption. In some countries religious organizations can play an important development role and should be engaged.

While development partner coordination is often mentioned in reports and documents, the precise nature of that coordination often is left vague and undefined. It helps to flesh this out when considering the engagement on anticorrup-tion measures in fragile states. This principle carries important implications for the need to establish priorities shared across domestic and international partners. It likewise requires commitment to a pathway to improved governance and forsakes the mirage of transformational magical governance solutions that have underpinned and undermined countless reform efforts in fragile contexts. The challenges are significant and call for a coordinated approach that uses all of the scarce resources available to achieve concrete outcomes. These outcomes can serve as platforms for further reform and rallying points for expanding reform constituencies.

Conclusion

The prospects of fragile states are sobering. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the figures pointed at a trend of general and significant slippage, of which the OECD commented, “poverty reduction is not off-track, it is in reverse” (Welsh 2020). The slippage on achieving the SDG on hunger, health, and gender equality is across the board, with the separation between the 13 extremely fragile states relative to other states widening even more. On United Nations SDG 16 (which promotes peace, justice, and strong institutions), progress has stagnated or declined in 12 of the 13 countries of extreme fragility, as it did for a significant majority of other fragile states (OECD 2020a). The COVID-19 crisis is projected to aggravate significantly this situation. These trends occurred despite bilateral official development assistance to fragile states having increased every year since 2014 and having reached unprecedented levels as the pandemic hit ($76 billion in 2018). In extremely fragile states this ODA significantly exceeded FDI and remittances (OECD 2021). These worsening conditions generated a call “to do things differently” (Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development 2018, p. 5).

This chapter explored the role of corruption in state fragility, notably in sub-Saharan Africa. It set out how corruption is a key component of state fragility and discussed the extensive and locally driven history of anticorruption efforts in many of the countries in the region. It considered the approach taken to address the issue by the IMF, with a focus on the evolution of the IMF’s policy framework due to its accumulation of experience dealing with corruption and its insight into the dynamics of corruption drawn from salient cases from the field. Review of lending programs demonstrates the continuing challenge of establishing operational conditions that are fully aligned with new analytical models and policies. Previous anticorruption interventions in fragile states heavily relied upon an approach featuring the adoption of best-practice legal and organization models to maximize access to international markets. Better results may be achieved in fragile contexts by linking work on anticorruption more closely with sustained efforts to develop resilient institutions that are fit for function through an engagement that builds upon the existing political, organizational, and social context.

The final section offered suggestions on the way forward, including the need for more local knowledge (a deeper understanding of the political economy); a greater role of local ownership in an approach that is more embedded in country contexts; and a different engagement of international institutions, including through a more sustained in-country presence and engagement, an engagement that is more multidimensional (rather than single issue) and tailored and sequenced to country conditions and capacity. The chapter closed by discussing the benefits of a closer integration of capacity development with other institutional instruments (surveillance and lending), by arguing for a more outcome-based approach, and finally, by stressing the importance of a more intensive triangula-tion, in which the role of market and societal partners is given added weight next to government agencies as the traditional counterparts.

Annex 7.1. Fragile States and Governance and Corruption Indices—

Annex Box 7.1.1 Fragile State Indices 2020–2021

The World Bank, the IMF, and the OECD provide the following definitions of fragile states:

World Bank: The World Bank Index defines fragile states as follows:

Those with one or more of the following: (a) the weakest institutional and policy environment, based on a revised, harmonized CPIA score for IDA countries (for which CPIA scores are disclosed) that is below 3.0; or (b) the presence of a UN peacekeeping operation because this reflects a decision by the international community that a significant investment is needed to maintain peace and stability there; or (c) flight across borders of 2,000 or more per 100,000 population, who are internationally regarded as refugees in need of international protection, as this signals a major political or security crisis; and

Those that are not in medium- or high-intensity conflict, as such countries have gone beyond fragility.

IMF: The IMF defines fragile states (FS) as having either weak institutional capacity measured by the World Bank CPIA score (average of 3.2 or lower) or experience of conflict (signaled by presence of a peace-keeping or peace-building operation in the most recent three-year period).

OECD: The OECD defines fragility “as the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacity of the state, systems and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks. Fragility can lead to negative outcomes including violence, poverty, inequality, displacement, and environmental and political degradation. Fragility is measured on a spectrum of intensity and expressed in different ways across the economic, environmental, political, security and societal dimensions, with a sixth dimension (human capital) forthcoming in States of Fragility 2022. Each dimension is represented by 8–12 indicators—44 in total across all 5 dimensions—that measure risks and coping capacities to fragility” (OECD 2020a).

In addition, the OECD offers the following definitions:

Extreme fragility: In its 2021 report, the OECD qualifies the 13 worst performing countries as “extremely fragile” (OECD 2020a, p. 24).

Chronic fragility: In its 2018 report, the OECD qualifies 27 countries as chronically fragile. Chronic fragility refers to countries that have consistently been listed in the biannual OECD reports since 2008 (OECD 2018, p. 26, box 1).

Almost all countries that are extremely fragile are also chronically fragile, with the exception of South Sudan (which did not exist as an independent state in 2008) and the Republic of Congo.

Annex Table 7.1.1.

Fragile State Indices

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Sources: Compiled by authors from World Bank (FY21), IMF (2019), and OECD (2020) lists of fragile countries. Note: “Grouped” refers to an index grouping countries according to certain shared characteristics (for example, conflict, small states), without ranking them. “Ranked” refers to an index ranking countries in terms of severity of the problem. The World Bank FCS 2021 index groups but does not rank. The IMF neither groups nor ranks. The OECD 2020 index does not group but ranks based on severity. The OECD 2018 index on chronic fragility is neither grouped nor ranked.

Annex Box 7.1.2. Corruption Indices 2020–20211

These indices cover the 30 countries with the worst scores on corruption and the rule of law in the WGI and the CPI 2021. These show that all these countries are fragile states, with extremely fragile states clustered near the end.

Annex Table 7.1.2.

Corruption Indices

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Sources: Transparency International, Corruption Perception Index, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020/index/nzl; and World Bank, World Governance Indicators, https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports.

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1

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2

The multidimensional definition used by these agencies is incorporated by very large numbers of indicators (the OECD uses 44 and the World Bank 16), and thus has attendant challenges in weighting, which can affect outcomes. These were recently illustrated by the fact that Cameroon (11 indicators) is classified as more fragile than conflict-ridden Libya (20 indicators) or Iraq (17 indicators) in the OECD 2020 Fragile States Index (Harsch 2020). Also, from a diagnostic perspective, most rankings and reports do not always clearly distinguish between the consequences of fragility or its causes. See, generally, Easterly and Freschi (2010).

3

Thus, some propose to extend the concept to so-called strongmen countries—even if those might not be viewed as fragile according to the CPIA (Chayes 2016; Saeed 2020).

4

Of the 20 lowest-scoring countries in the 2020 Transparency International Corruption Perception Index 2020, half are fragile states from the region.

5

The IMF (2015a) report fags progress in Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda, but a number of these countries have since seen regression. Cameroon has been slipping on the Fragile States Index because of a slow-burning insurgency. Niger fell 11 places in the Global Peace Index and slipped on the Fragile States Index (OECD 2020a, p. 34). The New Humanitarian (2020), citing J. J. Messner of the Fund for Peace, notes that “Mozambique . . . is ranked 27th on the list, but over the past decade [it has been identified as] the sixth most worsened [country], ‘behind the “more obvious” humanitarian emergencies evident in places like Libya, Syria, Mali, Yemen, and Venezuela’” (“Te 2020 Fragile 15” 2020).

6

Shah and Schacter (2004) point at the differentiated approach that is required depending on the gravity of the challenges. Their article was recently cited with approval by prominent current anti-corruption experts such as Mason (2020). Mason, in the seminal study on donor performance in this sector, Reassessing Donor Performance in Anti-corruption, notes that “because corruption is itself a symptom of fundamental governance failure, the higher the incidence of corruption, the less an anticorruption strategy should include tactics that are narrowly targeted at corrupt behaviour and the more it should focus on the broad underlying features of the governance environment” (2020, p. 6). Mason then proceeds to note that this is exactly what development partners failed to do.

7

The Cameron Commission refers to the Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development, chaired by former UK prime minister David Cameron. Its 2018 report is called Escaping the Fragility Trap. The commission fags the different nature of the IMF’s involvement in fragile states compared to many of its peer organizations because of its durable engagement, which tends to overambitious policy change. This dynamic is deemed to undermine “social learning” (p. 38). The commission calls for an IMF policy change that is “public; too painful to be interpreted as business-as-usual (i.e. a ‘signal’); linked to clear and monitored milestones; and enforced through annual scrutiny by the IMF Board” (p. 38).

8

Following the publication of IEO (2018), the IMF put in place a number of measures that broadly aim to strengthen country-specific engagement. These measures included the establishment of a permanent interdepartmental committee tasked with enhancing engagement in fragile countries by introducing country-specific strategies and strengthening capacity development, including its integration with surveillance. See IMF (2018a).

1

The CPIA has not been included because it is very selective in the country coverage and does not cover those countries routinely.

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