Abstract

The Global Informal Workforce is a fresh look at the informal economy around the world and its impact on the macroeconomy. The book covers interactions between the informal economy, labor and product markets, gender equality, fiscal institutions and outcomes, social protection, and financial inclusion. Informality is a widespread and persistent phenomenon that affects how fast economies can grow, develop, and provide decent economic opportunities for their populations. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped to uncover the vulnerabilities of the informal workforce.

Title Page

THE GLOBAL INFORMAL WORKFORCE

Priorities for Inclusive Growth

Editors

CORINNE C. DELÉCHAT LEANDRO MEDINA

Copyright Page

© 2021 International Monetary Fund

Cover design: IMF Creative Solutions

Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library

Names: Deléchat, Corinne, editor. | Medina, Leandro, editor. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.

Title: The global informal workforce : priorities for inclusive growth / editors: Corinne Deléchat, Leandro Medina.

Other titles: Priorities for inclusive growth

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 978–1–51357–591–9 (paper) 978–1–51357–744–9 (ePub) 978–1–51357–765–4 (PDF)

Subjects: LCSH: Informal sector (Economics). | Economic development. | Labor market.

Classification: LCC HD2341.G56 2021

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors, its management, or any of its members. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

Recommended citation: Deléchat, Corinne, and Leandro Medina, eds. 2021. The Global Informal Workforce: Priorities for Inclusive Growth. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

ISBN: 978–1–51357–591–9 (paper)

978–1–51357–744–9 (ePub)

978–1–51357–765–4 (PDF)

Please send orders to:

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Contents

  • Foreword

  • Acknowledgments

  • Contributors

  • Abbreviations

    • Introduction: What Do We Know About the Informal Economy?

  • Corinne Deléchat and Leandro Medina

  • 1 The Evolution of Shadow Economies through the 21st Century

  • Leandro Medina and Friedrich Schneider

  • 2 Europe’s Shadow Economies: Estimating Size and Outlining Policy Options

  • Ben Kelmanson, Koralai Kirabaeva, and Leandro Medina

  • 3 Nonlinearity between the Shadow Economy and Economic Development

  • Dong Frank Wu and Friedrich Schneider

  • 4 The Effect of Regulatory Policy on Firm Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Manabu Nose

  • 5 Informality and Labor Market Dynamics in Latin America

  • Antonio C. David, Frederic Lambert, and Frederik Toscani

  • 6 Immigration and Employment: Substitute versus Complementary Labor in Selected African Countries

  • Arina Viseth

  • 7 The Close Relationship between Informality and Gender Gaps in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Vivian Malta, Lisa Kolovich, Angelica Martínez Leyva, and Marina M. Tavares

  • 8 How Institutions Shape the Informal Economy

  • Hilary Devine

  • 9 National and Subnational Tax Reforms to Address Informality

  • Ehtisham Ahmad

  • 10 Beyond the COVID-19 Crisis: A Framework for Sustainable Government-to-Person Mobile Money Transfers

  • Sonja Davidovic, Soheib Nunhuck, Delphine Prady, and Herve Tourpe

  • 11 Macroprudential Policies and Financial Inclusion: Good Intentions and Unintended Consequences

  • Corinne Deléchat, Lama Kiyasseh, Margaux MacDonald, and Rui Xu

  • 12 Financial Inclusion, Bank Competition, and Informal Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • Azanaw Mengistu and Hector Perez-Saiz

  • Index

Foreword

The informal economy is a globally widespread and pervasive phenomenon: 2 billion workers or 60 percent of the world population participate in the informal sector. Although mostly prevalent in emerging and developing economies, it is also an important part of advanced economies. Whereas workers and firms may choose to operate in the informal sector to avoid taxes or regulations, 85 percent of all informal workers around the world are in precarious employment in small production units, mostly due to lack of opportunities in the formal sector.

This has important macroeconomic consequences. First, informal firms tend to be small, with low productivity, and do not contribute to the tax base. Therefore, countries or regions with higher informality also grow below their potential. Moreover, they do not collect sufficient taxes and cannot provide basic goods and services to the whole population, which reinforces informality. Second, informal workers are more likely to be poor and to earn lower wages compared to their peers in the formal sector, both because they lack social protection and access to credit and because they tend to be less educated. Third, women are more likely than men to be not only in informal employment but also in the most precarious and low-paying categories of informal employment, in part because they lack equal access to education and health services.

This book brings together recent research by IMF staff and academic researchers on the causes, characteristics, and main effects of informality. It advances our understanding of reducing informality as essential for sustainable and inclusive development, because of informality’s close but complex links with productivity, poverty, and inequality. This research is all the more relevant in the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, which has hit particularly hard informal workers in emerging and developing economies. We already know that the pandemic risks erasing the past decade of progress in reducing poverty and inequality, and it is stretching the ability of governments to extend social safety nets to vulnerable informal workers and firms.

Designing and implementing effective policies to address informality requires, first and foremost, our ability to measure it. This is inherently difficult, because participants in the informal economy either do not want to be found or are hard to reach. Another challenge is that informality arises for multiple reasons and can take many different forms within and across countries. This book contributes to the policy debate in three main ways. First, it proposes a novel and consistent measure of the informal economy over time and across countries. Second, it analyzes the drivers and consequences of informality on the economy by analyzing its effects on productivity, labor markets, and gender gaps, as well as its interactions with fiscal policy and financial inclusion. Third, while recognizing that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, the book argues that policies can be effective in reducing informality. Improving access to education, accounting for informality when designing tax and social protection systems, enhancing financial inclusion, and implementing selected structural policies can be effective in promoting greater formalization.

Reducing informality over time is essential for sustained and inclusive development, but this process will inevitably have to be gradual, given the importance of informal activities to the livelihoods of billions of people currently. The analyses and recommendations in this book are a must-read for government officials, researchers, practitioners, and all those interested in designing policies to create a more prosperous world for everyone.

Kristalina Georgieva

Managing Director

International Monetary Fund

Acknowledgments

Producing this book was a collective undertaking by the chapters’ authors to take a global look at the causes and consequences of informality, as well as the implications for policies. The book takes its roots in the work done for a chapter of the sub-Saharan African Regional Economic Outlook report of May 2017—led by Ali Mansoor and Cemile Sancak—that discussed the policy challenges and opportunities associated with large informal sectors in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people have inspired and supported us in our journey to see this project come to fruition. We are particularly grateful to IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva; Antoinette Sayeh; Abebe Selassie; David Owen; David Robinson; Annalisa Fedelino; Ana Corbacho; and Professor Friedrich Schneider, a world-renowned expert on the informal economy. We also thank Joe Procopio and Rumit Pancholi of the IMF’s Communications Department for their excellent work managing all aspects of the production of this book, Devlan O’Connor for copyediting, and Rebekah Young for proofreading. Jacques Treilly provided superb administrative assistance during the many steps needed to bring the book into completion.

Corinne Deléchat

Leandro Medina

Contributors

Editors

Corinne Deléchat is a division chief in the IMF’s African Department. She is currently leading missions to Senegal as well as the department’s analytical groups on inequality and economic diversification. She has also held positions in the Western Hemisphere Department and the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, leading IMF relations with several emerging markets and low-income countries, and covering financial sector and private capital flow issues, donor coordination, capacity building, and external debt sustainability. Before joining the IMF, she worked at the Swiss Ministry of Economy, where she was in charge of bilateral cooperation to a group of low-income countries, and at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Her publications focus on development, financial inclusion, banking, external debt, and international migration. Ms. Deléchat earned an MA and a PhD in economics from Georgetown University and a master’s in international economics from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva.

Leandro Medina is a senior economist in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Previously, Mr. Medina worked in the IMF’s African Department on frontier economy matters, particularly with countries such as Ghana and Mozambique, and a key issue of the Regional Economic Outlook, which focused on the size and characteristics of the informal economy in African countries. Before that, Mr. Medina focused on macro-fiscal issues in Southeast Asia in the Fiscal Affairs Department and covered regional policy issues in the Middle East and Central Asia, where he also contributed to the Regional Economic Outlook. Before joining the IMF, he worked as an international consultant at the Inter-American Development Bank, participating in portfolio review and policy dialogue missions to Argentina and Uruguay. His research, published in peer-reviewed journals, covers topics in macroeconomics and international finance. He earned a doctorate in economics from The George Washington University.

Authors

Ehtisham Ahmad is a visiting professor at the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics, is a senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, and was Pao Yu-Kong Professor at Zhejiang University. He directed a program at the London School of Economics on tax and social policy in the presence of informality in Indonesia and Mexico. He is the director of a London School of Economics’ program on sustainable urban transitions in China and Mexico. He previously held senior positions in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, was Special Advisor to the Saudi Finance Minister, and Director of the London School of Economics Development Economics Research Program at STICERD. He has written or edited 13 books and numerous papers and reports on topics in public finance and policy. He holds an MA from the University of Cambridge and an MA and DPhil from the University of Sussex.

Antonio David is a senior economist in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. He has previously worked at the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development and African Department. Before that, he was an economist at the World Bank and taught at the University of Essex. His research interests include international macroeconomics, fiscal policy, financial development, and economic growth. He earned a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.

Hilary Devine is a research assistant in the IMF’s African Department. Her research has covered income inequality in low-income and developing economies, the African Continental Free Trade Area, and private financing for development and international taxation in sub-Saharan Africa. Before joining the IMF, she earned an MA in economics from New York University and a BCA and BSc from Victoria University of Wellington.

Ben Kelmanson is the IMF’s Senior Resident Representative in Turkey. Before this, he was IMF Mission Chief for Latvia and Moldova. Previously at the IMF he was Advisor to the First Deputy Managing Director and served in various capacities in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, including as Advisor to the Director, as Deputy Chief in the Emerging Markets Division, and in the Low-Income Country Division. Before joining the IMF, he worked for the UK director on the IMF’s Executive Board and in HM Treasury in London. He has a BA in economics from the University of Leeds.

Koralai Kirabaeva is a senior economist in the IMF’s European Department. An IMF staff member since 2011, she has also worked in the Monetary and Capital Market Department and the Middle East and Central Asia Department. She previously worked in the Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada. Her research focuses on macro-financial and structural issues. She holds a PhD in economics from Cornell University.

Lama Kiyasseh is a research officer in the IMF’s Research Department, covering global commodity markets. Her research interests include energy economics, infrastructure development, and the drivers of financial inclusion. Her recent work focuses on renewables, the energy transition, and carbon pricing. Before joining the IMF, she examined fiscal policy and macro-financial risks as an economist in Saudi Arabia. She has coauthored multiple IMF working papers and published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, the Journal of Energy and Development, and the Middle East Economic Survey, among others. She earned an MA in economics from The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and completed Oxford University’s Executive Education Program in economic and social development.

Lisa Kolovich is an economist in the IMF’s African Department who focuses on São Tomé and Príncipe and gender-related issues. She was previously the team manager for gender research under a joint collaboration between the IMF and the UK Department for International Development that focused on macro issues in low-income countries. Her research examines gender budgeting and fiscal policies initiatives as tools for reducing gender inequality, and she is a contributor to and the editor of the book Fiscal Policies and Gender Equality. Before joining the IMF, Ms. Kolovich conducted program evaluations for the US Department of Labor and was a consultant for the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. She holds an MA from the University of Maryland and a PhD from the University of Navarra.

Frederic Lambert is a senior economist in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, covering Haiti. He previously worked on the desks for Mexico and Uruguay and on the Global Financial Stability Report in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Mr. Lambert joined the IMF in 2012 from the Banque de France, where he was head of the International Monetary Relations Division. He earned a PhD in economics from the Stern School of Business at New York University.

Margaux MacDonald is an economist in the IMF’s Research Department, where she works on multilateral surveillance issues, including engagement with the G20. She previously worked in the African Department on several IMF program countries and on external sector issues. She has published in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, its Finance & Development magazine, and in peer-reviewed journals on international macroeconomics and finance, cross-country spillovers from monetary policy, trade, and the role of macroprudential policy on financial inclusion. Her work has been cited by the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal. She earned a PhD and an MA in economics from Queen’s University and a BBA from St. Francis Xavier University.

Vivian Malta is an economist in the Debt Policy Division of the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department at the IMF. She has previously worked in the Development Issues Unit, where she published several IMF papers on gender and income inequality. Before joining the IMF, she worked as a macroeconomist at the World Bank’s office in Brazil and in the financial industry. She earned a PhD in economics from Escola de Pós-Graduação em Economia and a bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering from Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, both in Brazil. During her graduate studies, she spent a year at Columbia University and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York as a visiting scholar.

Angelica Martínez Leyva is a PhD student at the University of Warwick in England. She was previously a project officer in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department at the IMF, where she worked on gender and inequality issues. She has earned an MA and BA in economics from the Instituto Tecnólogico Autónomo de México.

Marina Mendes Tavares is an economist in the IMF’s Research Department. She was previously an economist in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department and led the inequality workstream of the IMF and the UK Department for International Development. Before joining the IMF, she worked as an assistant professor at the Instituto Tecnólogico Autónomo de México. Her research interests include macroeconomics, public finance, gender, and inequality. She earned a PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota and an MA from the Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada in Brazil.

Azanaw Mengistu is a financial economist at Fannie Mae. His work focuses on house price modeling and forecasting. He previously worked in the African Department at the IMF, where he was responsible for managing macroeconomic data for five oil-exporting countries. His research interests include financial inclusion, housing finance, trade, and development. He earned degrees in economics and development economics from Georgetown University and The George Washington University.

Manabu Nose is an economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs He was previously an economist in the African Department covering countries in southern Africa and in the Fiscal Affairs Department’s expenditure policy division. He was also an associate professor at the University of Tokyo. Before joining the IMF, he was an economist at the World Bank and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. His research analyzes firm productivity, infrastructure and spatial connectivity, and social welfare programs. He earned a PhD in economics from Brown University.

Hector Perez-Saiz is the desk economist in the IMF’s African Department E3 division for the Democratic Republic of the Congo. He was previously the desk economist for Equatorial Guinea in the C2 division. Before joining the IMF, he was a principal researcher in the Financial Stability Department at the Bank of Canada, where he studied banking, financial stability, and productivity. His research has been published in the RAND Journal of Economics, the Journal of Financial Stability, the IMF Working Paper series, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, and the Bank of Canada Working Paper series. Mr. Perez-Saiz earned a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and an MA in economics from the Toulouse School of Economics.

Delphine Prady joined the IMF in 2016. She is a senior economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department, working on expenditure policy issues with a focus on social spending, energy subsidies, and the digital economy. Before joining the IMF, she worked in the French Treasury; she then was an advisor to social affairs and labor ministers in France and to the French president. She is a graduate of the École normale supérieure in Cachan, France, and earned a doctorate from the Toulouse School of Economics.

Friedrich Schneider studied economics at the University of Konstanz, where he received his PhD in 1977. Now retired, he was a professor of economics and vice director of foreign relations at the Johannes Kepler University Linz and a research professor at the German Institute for Economic Research. He was a board member of the International Institute of Public Finance and a member of the scientific advisory board of Avenir Suisse. He also was the chairman of the Academic Advisory Board of the Zeppelin University in Friedrichshafen, Germany. Since October 2015, he has been a member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. His research primarily focuses on the underground economy and illicit work, as well as tax evasion and money laundering. In addition, he has conducted research on political economies, privatization, deregulation, and issues related to environmental economics.

Frederik Toscani is an economist in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, covering Brazil. He previously worked on several other Latin American countries in the Western Hemisphere Department as well as in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. His research has focused mainly on issues in labor economics, public economics, and economic growth and has been published in the Journal of Economic Growth and the Journal of Development Economics. He earned a PhD and MPhil in economics from the University of Cambridge and a BSc in economics from the London School of Economics.

Herve Tourpe is a chief digital advisor in the IMF’s Information Technology Department. He leads a team of digital experts in transformative technologies relevant to IMF’s member countries, such as fintech, artificial intelligence, block-chain, Big Data, and cloud computing and related cyber risks. A passionate “techno-realist,” he strives to provide unbiased and cross-country expertise on technology trends, opportunities, and risks, especially for emerging market economies and low-income countries. He is an expert in national digital strategies, focusing on financial inclusion, sustainable development, digital payment, and central bank digital currencies. He graduated as a software engineer from the Ecole Supérieure d’Informatique Appliquée de Lorraine in France.

Arina Viseth is an economist in the IMF’s African Department, Western 3 division, serving as the desk economist for Togo. Her other country experience includes Madagascar, Niger, Seychelles, South Sudan, and Uganda. Before joining the IMF, she was a consultant at the World Bank and a part of the trade team working on the World Trade Indicators. She earned a PhD in economics from the University of Delaware and is a Fulbright scholar alumna.

Dong (Frank) Wu is an economist in the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development. He has participated in the development and delivery of various IMF training and technical assistance programs for member countries. In the IMF’s area department, he worked on emerging markets and low-income countries for topics, including inflation analysis, macro-financial linkages, external sector assessment, debt sustainability framework, and economic growth. He holds an economics PhD from the University of Maryland.

Rui Xu is an economist in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, where she works on Korea and Mongolia. She previously worked in the Institute for Capacity Development and delivered economic training to authorities from Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. Her research interests include growth economics, fiscal rules, monetary policy transmission, and gender inclusion and inequality. She has published in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook reports and peer-reviewed journals on issues related to international trade, inequality, volatility in the equity market, fiscal institutions, and fragile states. She earned a PhD and MA in economics from Stanford University and a BSc from The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

Abbreviations

AML/CFT

anti–money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism

API

application programming interface

ATM

automated teller machine

CCE

common correlated effects

CDA

currency demand approach

CICO

cash-in/cash-out

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

D3

Digitize, Direct, Design

DIY

do it yourself

EU

European Union

FATF

Financial Action Task Force

Findex

Global Financial Inclusion database (World Bank)

fintech

financial technology

FGLS

feasible generalized least squares

G2P

government to person

GMM

generalized method of moments

GSMA

Global System for Mobile Communications Association

ID

identification

ILO

International Labour Organization

IPUMS

International project started by the University of Minnesota Population Center

ISO

International Organization for Standardization

ISR

impuesto sobre la renta (Mexican income tax)

IV

instrumental variable

KYC

know your customer

LATE

local average treatment effect

MAR

missing at random

MCAR

missing completely at random

MIMIC

multiple indicators, multiple causes

MMO

mobile money operator

MNAR

missing not at random

MNO

mobile network operator

NOE

nonobserved economy

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OLS

ordinary least squares

P2G

person to government

PMM

predictive mean matching method

PPP

purchasing power parity

PUMS

Public Use Microdata Samples

RMSEA

root mean square error of approximation

SDGs

Sustainable Development Goals

SEM

structural equation modeling

SEZ

special economic zone

SIMS

Labor Markets and Social Security Information System

SMS

short message service

SNA

System of National Accounts

TFP

total factor productivity

UN

United Nations

UNESCO

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNICEF

United Nations Children’s Fund

USSD

unstructured supplementary service data

VAT

value-added tax

WDI

World Development Indicators (World Bank)

WEF

World Economic Forum

WGI

Worldwide Governance Indicators (World Bank)

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