Index
A
Acemoglu, D., 95, 227
Actual labor force, official labor force discrepancy with, 23
Administrative barriers, 78n9, 79
Administrative processes, streamlining, 105
Adom, A. D., 95, 223, 233
Advanced economies
G2P transfers in, 275, 276
MIMIC model for, 36t, 41t
Africa. See specific topics
Agent network coverage, in G2P transfers, 292
Agriculture, in sub-Saharan Africa, 117
Ahmad, Ehtisham, 8, 256, 269, 270
Ahn, J., 159n12, 162
Aiyar, S. C., 318
Alam, Z., 318–19, 328, 336–37
Alesina, A., 122
Allen, F., 350, 352
Alm, J., 49
Alper, E., 298
Altonji, J., 169
Anand, R., 146, 162
Area-based taxes, 270
Argentina, 153, 157
Asia. See also specific countries
factor allocation in, 128
firm growth in developing, 116, 118f
firm size in, 117, 118f, 119f, 139f
land allocation in, 122f, 141f
land markets in developing, 117, 122f
productivity in, 117, 118f
summary statistics for, 137t
ATMs, 293, 294
Auxilio Emergencial, 281
Ayyagari, M. T., 318
B
Balance sheets
borrower individuals and, 372–74, 375t, 376t
empirical models, 373
empirical results, 373
financial inclusion and, 372–76
variables, 372–76
weaknesses, 351
from World Bank Enterprise Survey, 117
Ball, L., 159
Baltic countries, shadow economy in, 22t, 48, 49f
Bank accounts, 359
bank competition and, 360t, 361t
individuals without, 359, 365
Bank competition
bank accounts and, 360t, 361t, 370t
credit cards and, 350, 358, 368t, 369t, 372t
debit cards and, 350, 359, 366t, 367t, 371t
Barro, R. J., 95
Bayesian setups, 37
Beck, T., 318
Benchmarking, 26, 27, 27n18, 28
Ben Hassine, M., 319
Benin, 202
Berger, S., 171
Betcherman, G., 146
Billetera Móvil (BiM), 289, 306t
Birinci, S., 91
Blackden, M., 200–01
Black economy, 11, 87
Blockchain technology, 88n3, 256, 269, 270
Boko Haram, 133
Bono Independiente, 281
Boone indicator, 350, 355, 357–59, 362, 371
data from, 354t, 356t
Borjas, G., 169–71, 177, 179, 185
Borrowing, 268, 323, 324, 324f, 326, 334–36, 338, 351, 358, 372–74
Bosch, M., 146
Brazil, 145n2, 153, 155, 157, 281
Breusch, T., 28, 134
Bribes, 231
Brosio, G., 270
Brunei Darussalam, 100
Bryant, J., 170
Buehn, A., 25, 49, 90–91
Burundi, 37
Business cycle, labor informality and, 146, 157, 162–64
Business environment, 123, 185, 224, 227–30
C
Calomiris, C. W., 318
Cameroon, 168, 169, 176, 179
stylized facts for, 168, 186f, 187f
Capital ratios, 351, 352, 373, 374
in sub-Saharan Africa, 351, 352, 374n8
Card, D., 169, 170
Care work, 197, 200, 203, 207
Caribbean, shadow economy in, 41
Cash economy, 11
Cash-in/cash-out (CICO) networks, G2P transfers and, 294
Castillo, P. B., 146
CCE. See Common correlated effects
CDA. See Currency demand approach
C-efficiency VAT measure, 234, 236
Central America, labor productivity in, 147
Chad, 197
Chiapas, 254, 259
Childbearing, 199, 202, 203, 212
Chile, 147, 155, 157
China, 254, 255, 263, 265–69, 271, 272, 318
informality in, 255, 266
property taxes in, 272
SDGs and, 272
structural reforms in, 263–64
tax reforms in, 255, 263–66
VATs in, 254, 265–66
Chongqing, 267, 268
CICO networks. See Cash-in/cash-out networks
C5 indicator, 350, 355, 359, 362
data from, 354
CIS. See Commonwealth of Independent States
Cizel, J., 336
Classic criminal activities, 13n4
Colombia, 146, 153, 155, 288, 294
Commodity price shocks, impulse response function for, 163, 164f
Common correlated effects (CCE), 158
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 71
shadow economy in, 72–76
Company manager surveys, shadow economy and, 14, 22–23
Competition
bank, 349, 350, 355, 357–59, 360t, 361t, 365, 366t, 367t, 368t, 369t, 370t, 371, 372t
empirical models, 358–59
financial inclusion and, 350, 358–72
in sub-Saharan Africa, 357–72
of women, 197, 200–204
Consumption, real income linked to, 172
Corruption, 31, 32, 51, 76, 87, 117, 136, 231, 300
in EU, 79
in institutional quality, 236
as institutional variable, 238
measurement of, 124n4
shadow economy and, 15t, 76
COVID-19 crisis, 275, 288, 295
G2P transfers in, 275
informal workers impacted by, 72, 81n13, 271
population in need of support in, 277f
shadow economy during, 72, 81
in sub-Saharan Africa, 276f, 297
Credit access, 121, 130
factor allocation and, 130–32
in sub-Saharan Africa, 130–32
for women, 206
Credit cards, 349
bank competition and, 350, 358, 368t, 369t, 372t
Cryptocurrencies, 88n3
Cuba, 170
Currency demand approach (CDA), 23, 24
double counting problem in, 30
for shadow economy, 14, 30, 47, 50, 51
structured hybrid model-based estimation, 14, 28–30
Cybersecurity, in G2P transfers, 300
Czech Republic, 46, 49
D
Dakar, 270, 272
Data
from Boone indicator, 350, 354t, 356t
from C5 indicator, 354
collection of, 18, 74, 105, 304
on economic development, 87–88, 105
on financial inclusion, 352–53, 354t
from Financial Soundness Indicators Database, 353–54
from Global Financial Development Database, 352, 355, 356t
from Global Findex Database, 316, 319, 352–53
from H-statistic, 355–56
on immigration, 179–80
on informality, 153n6, 234
on institutional variables, 224
on institutions, 240t
from Lerner index, 357
microdata from Senegal, 192
processing, 74–75
on sub-Saharan Africa, 116–17, 353–54, 357, 358
David, Antonio C., 7
Davidovic, Sonja, 8
Debit cards, 349
bank competition and, 350, 359, 366t, 367t, 371t
Decennial Censuses and Surveys, 174
Degryse, H., 355
Deindustrialization, of sub-Saharan Africa, 115
Del Carpio, X., 170
Deléchat, Corinne, 8, 336, 352
Dell’Anno, R., 27n18
Demand instruments, 328n8
Demand-side macroprudential policies, 328, 332, 336
Demographics. See also Population
of education, 200f
of entrepreneurship, 176f
of Nigeria, 133
in sub-Saharan Africa, 116–17
De Soto, H., 116
Deterrence, shadow economy and, 16t
Developing countries. See also Emerging markets
MIMIC model for, 33t, 35t, 40t
DGE. See Dynamic general equilibrium
Digital economy, 88n3, 105
Digital fraud, in G2P transfers, 299, 300
Digital government, in G2P transfers, 289–91
Digital platforms. See also specific topics
direct estimation approaches
Discrimination, against women, 191, 193, 197, 206, 208, 212, 213
Doing Business indicators, 160
Double counting problem
in CDA, 30–31
in MIMIC, 30–31
Double shift, 200
Drug dealing, 13n4
Duopoly markets, 362n6
Duval, R., 146
Dybka, P. M., 28–30, 47–48, 50
Dynamic general equilibrium (DGE), 92, 224
for informality measurement, 232
E
Ease of Doing Business Index, 133
Easterly, W., 122
Eberhardt, M., 158
Econometric analysis, 91, 164–65, 320, 359
Economic development. See also Developing countries
benchmark model, 94–95
data on, 93, 116
empirical methods, 91–92
empirical results, 93–105
GDP as proxy for, 88n2, 90, 97
informal economy and, 6
literature on, 90–91
policy implications and, 102–5
robustness checks, 96–102
shadow economy and, 87–88, 90
Economy names, 106t, 107t. See also specific topics
Education
attainment, 89–91, 93, 95, 178, 179, 198, 199, 209, 210, 212
demographics of, 200f
drop outs, 199
financial access linked to, 329
in formal sector, 210
gender gaps in, 198f
immigration and, 184t
incomplete, 198
informal employment and, 197f, 199, 201f
informality linked to, 199, 201f
in informal sector, 210
marriage and, 199, 202–04
in rural areas, 199, 210
in Senegal, 192, 198–200, 200f, 201f, 207
shadow economy and, 104–05
in sub-Saharan Africa, 198f, 201f, 205f
in Sustainable Development Goals, 206n12
in urban areas, 199, 210–11
of women, 197–200, 200f, 201f
Ehsaas Kafalat, 298
Elbahnasawy, N., 95, 241
Electricity consumption, shadow economy measured by, 23–24
Electronic payment systems, 80
Elgin, C., 49, 91, 92, 94, 224, 230–33, 236
on informal economy, 223, 224, 225f, 232f
Ellis, M., 95, 233, 241
Embaye, A., 49
Emerging markets, 71, 76, 78, 146, 148, 157, 159, 167, 224–27, 234, 277, 289, 300, 319, 336
gender gap in, 299f
immigration impacting, 170, 185
taxation in, 254–57
VATs in, 229, 254, 255, 258, 271–72
Employment. See also Informal employment; Unemployment
ILO on, 191n1
immigration and, 167–72
immigration short term effects on, 174t
in informal economy, 167, 191n1
of native workers, 172–73, 174n6
rates, 159n11, 174, 177–78
self-employment, 178, 182t, 183, 183t
in Senegal, 192
in sub-Saharan Africa, 167
wage-employment, 168–69, 174, 174t, 182–83, 182t–84t, 185
Employment protection, 150f
in South America, 151
Employment Protection Legislation Database, 160
End-to-end framework, 284–99
Enhanced Digital Access Index, 298
Entrepreneurship, demographics of, 176f
Equality, of women, 206, 209f, 212, 213
Equilibrium prices, 365n7
Equilibrium wage, 172
Erturk, F., 91
Esteban-Pretel, J., 146
Estonia, 21–23, 30, 48
shadow economy in, 30t
Ethnic fractionalization, 125, 130
factor allocation and, 125
in sub-Saharan Africa, 116, 122, 136
EU. See European Union
Eurobarometer survey, 78n10
European System of National and Regional Accounts, 19
European Union (EU). See also specific countries
corruption in, 76
electronic payment system in, 79–80
GDP of, 71–73, 76–77
human capital development in, 80
informality in, 72–73
institutional quality in, 78–79
labor market reform in, 80
output gap estimates in, 75f
policy options in, 78–80
productivity in, 77–78
regulations in, 78–79
regulatory quality in, 76, 78
remittances in, 77
shadow economy determinants in, 76–78
shadow economy estimates in, 72–76, 82t–84t
shadow economy in, 31f, 71–72
shadow economy size in, 73f, 74f, 75t, 76–77, 80
taxation in, 76–77, 79–80
Exclusion factors, 78, 80
Exit factors, 78, 78n9, 78n10, 79
Explanatory variables, 27, 72, 128, 326, 327–28, 355
F
Factor allocation
in Asia, 128, 141f
credit access and, 130–32
determinants of, 122–25
ethnic fractionalization and, 125, 128, 136
firm performance and, 125, 128–30, 131t
firm size and, 128
heterogeneity in effects of, 128–30
in Nigeria, 142f
spatial distribution of efficiency of, 141f
in sub-Saharan Africa, 122–25, 126t, 129t, 131t, 133
taxation and, 130–32
Factor markets, 116, 121
Family planning, 193, 199, 202, 203, 212
FATF. See Financial Action Task Force
Fee structure, of G2P transfers, 295–96
Feige, E. L., 24, 28
Feld, L., 27–28
Fertility, GDP linked to, 204f
Filer, R. K., 49
Financial access. See also Financial inclusion; Formal access; Informal access
baseline estimates, 329
countries in database, 343t, 344t
country-level controls, 327
decomposition of, 323f
definitions, 319–22
drivers of, 324–38
education linked to, 329
explanatory variables, 327–28
facets of, 323–24
financial sector health and structure, 328
financial variables in, 330–36
macroprudential policies and, 318–20, 328–30, 332
means and standard deviations of variables, 343t
monetary policy and, 327–28
monetary variables in, 330–36
sources of variables, 341t, 342t
study results, 329–38
in sub-Saharan Africa, 338, 357–58
for women, 329
Financial Access Index, 341t
Financial Access Survey, 317n3
Financial Action Task Force (FATF), 281n7, 315, 338
Financial corporations, 93, 93n10
Financial crisis of 2008-2010, 268
in Greece, 229
Financial inclusion
balance sheets and, 372–76
competition and, 358–72
data sources, 352–58
empirical models, 358–59
global, 321f
informality and, 8
mobile banking and, 317
policy for, 317–19
in sub-Saharan Africa, 322f, 349–50, 365, 377
Financial institutions, G2P transfers and, 286, 288–89, 293
Financial market structure, 330–31
Financial Soundness Indicators Database, 354t
data from, 353
Fintech, 285, 289, 292, 297, 300, 301, 353, 377
Firm growth
in Asia, 117, 118f, 119f
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117, 118f
Firm performance
factor allocation and, 128–30, 129t
labor allocation impacting, 131t, 132
land allocation impacting, 131t, 132f
spatial distribution of, 139–40
in sub-Saharan Africa, 139f
Firm size
in Asia, 139f
factor allocation and, 128
land markets and, 125–28
in Nigeria, 133–34, 135t
regulations and, 125–26
in sub-Saharan Africa, 139f
Fiscal institutions, taxation and, 227–29
Fiscal management, 228–29
Fiscal policy, informality and, 7–8
Fixed-term contracts, 150f, 152f, 160
Foreign workers
defining, 168, 169
offer curve of, 171
skillsets of, 168, 169, 171, 172
substitutability of, 176, 177n9, 185
Formal access, 320, 326, 329, 338
drivers of, 324–38
explanatory variables, 327–28
macroprudential policies and, 328–29
Formalization, 3, 5, 81, 115, 116, 126, 132, 227
Formal sector
education in, 207, 210
immigration and, 173f, 181t, 182t
self-employment in, 182t
in Senegal, 192, 200, 207, 208t
in sub-Saharan Africa, 208
Freeman, R. B., 146
Frey, B. S., 25
G
Game-theoretic models, 350, 355
Gaps, 157n9, 180, 185
Gates Foundation, 290
GCash, 292
GDP. See Gross domestic product
Gender gap
in education, 197, 198f, 199, 207
in emerging markets, 299f
in G2P transfers, 298–99
informality and, 196f
in informal sector, 193–206
in sub-Saharan Africa, 198f
Gender inequality, informality and, 2, 5–6, 196f, 213
Generalized method of moments (GMM), 224
Gerbrandy, J., 270
Germany, shadow economy in, 30t
Ghana, 139, 168, 169, 171, 176, 179, 288, 295
stylized facts for, 187f
Gig economy, 88n3
Glitz, A., 169
Global Competitiveness Index, 102
Global economy, analytical categories of, 111t, 112t
Global financial crisis, in Greece, 229
Global Financial Development Database, data from, 352–53
Global Findex Database, 316, 317n3, 319, 327
data from, 352–53
Global Gender Gap Index, 194
Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA), 279n5, 284n12, 290
GMM. See Generalized method of moments
Goel, R., 230
Goldberger, A. S., 25
Goldin, C., 104
Governance, 76, 78, 133, 223, 227–30, 256, 300
as institutional variable, 231
Government accountability, 7, 224, 227, 228, 231, 236, 238
in institutional quality, 236
Government-to-person (G2P) social transfers
in advanced economies, 277n3
affordability, 297–98
agent network coverage in, 292
ATMs in, 293
basic delivery components for, 279–81
beneficiaries, 287–89
built-in triggers, 283n9
business model elements of, 296–97
channels for, 283t
CICO networks and, 294–95
communication in, 297
coverage of, 276f
in COVID-19 crisis, 275–76, 283–84
cybersecurity in, 300
delivery channel mix, 294
designing, 288f
digital fraud in, 300
digital government in, 289–91
digital inclusion foundations, 297–99, 310
eligibility criteria, 287–88
enablers maturity map, 303–10
end-to-end framework for, 284–99
evolution of, 284–99
expansion of, 276
fee structure of, 295–96
financial institutions and, 293–94
gender gap in, 298–99
informality and, 277
interoperability of, 296
KYC requirements, 288
limitations of, 299–301
liquidity management, 294–95
maturity stages of, 286
MMOs in, 291–93
MNOs in, 291–93, 305t
mobile coverage in, 292–93
mobile money life cycle in, 295
mobile networks for, 292–93
open architecture of, 289–90
payment acceptance network, 295–96, 308t
payment platforms for, 296
population reachability for, 280f
program features, 296–97
quality of service in, 292
regulation of, 300–301
risk management, 294
for social protection systems, 281–84
social registry in, 289
streamlined controls for, 290–91
sustainable, 284f
trained personnel, 295
user experience of, 288–89
G2P. See Government-to-person social transfers
GrabPay, 292
Gray economy, 11
Greece, global financial crisis in, 229
Groningen Growth and Development Centre, 115
Gross domestic product (GDP)
alternative measures of, 103t
benchmark model, 94–95
boosting, 95
correlation of variables, 108t, 109t
credit ratio to, 359
as economic development proxy, 90
of EU, 72–73
fertility linked to, 204f
long-term determinants of, 96t
MIMIC model excluding, 40t
noninstitutional variables, 93
nonobserved economy as percentage of, 20t
per capita determinants, 93
robustness checks, 97
shadow economy and, 88, 89f, 91, 92, 94–97, 98t, 99t, 100t, 101t, 102f, 103t, 104, 105
shadow wages as proportion of, 21t
unemployment responsiveness to change in, 160f
GSMA. See Global System for Mobile Communications Association
Guangzhou, 269
Guinea, 41, 47, 139, 197, 206
Gyomai, G., 14, 18, 46, 47
H
Hanousek, J., 49
Hassan, M., 25, 51, 52, 74
Hausman test, 99, 134
Herrera, C., 199, 202
Hidden activities, in SNA discrepancy method, 18
Hiring practices, flexibility in, 150
Hodrick-Prescott filter, 157n9
Household production, in SNA discrepancy method, 18
Hsieh, C.-T., 121
H-statistic, 350, 355, 357–59, 362, 365, 371
data from, 353–55
Human capital, 80, 88, 95, 105, 193, 198, 199, 202, 234
in EU, 80
in shadow economy, 79
Human Development Index, 37–38
I
IETU. See Impuesto Empresarial a Tasa Única
Illegal activities, in SNA discrepancy method, 18–23
Illegal production, 18
ILO. See International Labour Organization
ILOSTAT, 125n6
IMF. See International Monetary Fund
Immigration. See also Foreign workers
data on, 179–80
defining, 177
education and, 176–77, 185
emerging markets impacted by, 170
empirical framework, 174–80
employment and, 167–71
formal sector and, 173f, 181f
inflows, 180n11
informal sector and, 181t
interregional, 181–83, 185
intraregional, 168–69, 174, 176–77, 180–83, 185
labor markets and, 168, 174n6
literature review on, 169–71
models of, 178
model specifications, 177–79
native workers impacted by, 168–70, 172, 173, 174n6, 176, 177, 180–82, 185
policy recommendations, 185–88
self-employment and, 182, 182t, 183, 183t, 184t
in shadow economy, 79, 80
shocks from, 170
short-term employment effects, 174t
skill groups in, 177, 184–85
study results on, 180–85
stylized facts, 174–76
in sub-Saharan Africa, 167, 169, 171, 175f, 179–80
supply shock, 177–78
from Syria, 170
theoretical framework for labor markets and, 171–174
to Turkey, 170
wage-employment and, 182t, 183t
Impuesto Empresarial a Tasa Única (IETU), 258
Impulse response function, for commodity price shocks, 164f
Income statistics, national expenditure discrepancy with, 23
Income tax, in Mexico, 255, 258, 262, 265
India, 256, 267, 269, 279, 287–88
Informal access, 319–24
drivers of, 324–38
explanatory variables, 327–28
macroprudential policies and, 328–29
Informal economy. See also Shadow economy
adults in, 365–72
composition of, 175f
defining, 1
economic development and, 6
Elgin on, 232f, 247t–49t
employment in, 167
institutional variables and, 224
measures of, 232f
Medina on, 232f, 235t, 237t, 242t–45t
natural rate of, 241
Oztunali on, 232f, 246t–49t
Schneider on, 232f, 235t, 237t, 246t–49t
size of, 1–3, 4f, 6, 238, 241, 327
size of, by income level, 4f
size of, by region, 4f
social assistance programs and, 278f
in sub-Saharan Africa, 195f
women in, 191–92, 211–13
Informal employment
defining, 353
education and, 197f
ILO on, 353
in Senegal, 207–09
in sub-Saharan Africa, 353
Informality, 1, 5, 6, 148–49
as cheating, 257
in China, 265–66
countercyclical properties of, 157
cross-sectional data on, 148n3
decreasing, 225, 226f
defining, 1
DGE for measurement of, 232
drivers of, 2
education linked to, 201f
effective policy design, 4–5
in EU, 73
financial inclusion and, 8
forms of, 1–2
GDP transfers and, 277
gender gaps and, 197f
gender inequality and, 2, 6–7
institutions and, 227–231
Kanbur on, 1
labor markets and, 6–7
in Latin America, 148–49
marriage and, 202f, 211
measuring, 225, 231–32
MIMIC models for measurement of, 231–32
nonobserved economy classified by, 20t
Okun’s coefficients and, 161t
productivity and, 6–7
root causes of, 5
social protection and, 257
in sub-Saharan Africa, 194, 194f
taxation and, 1, 5, 8, 253–57
unemployment and, 156f
Informal sector
defining, 191n1
education in, 210
gender gaps in, 193–06
IMF on, 193–06
immigration and, 181t
inspection of, 120
institutional quality and, 97n14
native workers in, 181–82
production, 19
self-employment in, 183t
in Senegal, 208t
in SNA discrepancy method, 19–20
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117, 195f
taxation and, 97n14
wage-employment in, 183t
Informal workers
contracts of, 2
COVID-19 impacting, 3
ILO on, 3
women, 193–97
Infrastructure investment, 255, 267
Inspection, labor allocation and, 123
Institutional access, for women, 205
Institutional quality
corruption in, 236
in EU, 79–80
government accountability in, 236
improving, 79–80
informal sector and, 97n14
measurement of, 236
robustness checks for, 236–37
Institutional variables
business environment as, 229–30
corruption as, 231
data on, 234
governance as, 231
informal economy and, 224
in political environment, 230–31
regime change as, 230–31
regulatory burden as, 230
study results, 234–38
stylized facts on, 224–27
taxation and, 228–29
Institutions, 230
data on, 239t, 240t
financial, 293–94
fiscal, 228–29
informality and, 227–31
robustness checks on, 241–49
summary statistics on, 239–40
Instrumental variables (IV), 116, 128–30
in first-stage regression, 130
Inter-American Development Bank, 148n3, 153n6
International Country Risk Guide, 229
International Labour Organization (ILO), 1, 81n13, 118, 148n3, 150, 151, 151n4, 153n6, 160, 191, 353, 370
on employment, 191n1
on female informal workers, 193–94
on informal employment, 353
on informal workers, 2
on minimum wage, 118–19
reports of, 3
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 81n13
on informal sector, 193
Interswitch, 292
ISO Codes, 106t, 107t
IV. See Instrumental variables
H
Jakarta, 272
JavaScript, 290
Jiménez, G. S., 373
Johnson, S., 227, 230
Joreskog, K., 25
K
Kaliberda, A., 23
Kanbur, R., 1, 260
Kapetanios, G., 158
Karachi, 256, 272
Karmann, A., 25
Kaufmann, D., 23, 230, 327
Keen, M., 259, 260
Kelmanson, Ben, 6, 72, 76
Keluarga Harapan, 287
Kenya, 139, 198, 286, 292–94, 296
Khera, P., 146, 162
Kigali, 289
Kirabaeva, Koralai, 6
Kirchgaessner, G., 27, 28
Kireyev, A., 270
Kiyasseh, Lama, 8
Klenow, P., 121
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, 117
Kraay, A., 327
Krstic, G., 22
Kugler, A., 146
Kuwait, 100
KYC requirements, 288
L
Labor allocation
efficiency of, 116
firm performance impacted by, 132f
inspection and, 123
in Nigeria, 134f, 142f
regulatory quality and, 123
state capacity and, 123
in sub-Saharan Africa, 124f
Labor force, shadow economy and discrepancies in, 23
Labor informality
business cycle and, 162–64
in Latin America, 149f
models of, 162–64
Okun’s coefficients and, 163
Labor institutions, Okun’s coefficients and, 159–62
Labor markets
immigration and, 168, 172
informality and, 6–7
institutions, 149–153
in Latin America, 145, 149–53, 152f, 164–65
low-skilled, 173–74
minimum wage and, 120
Okun’s coefficient and, 161t
reforms in EU, 80
regulation of, 115–16, 120
rigidity, 150f, 151f, 152f
shadow economy and, 103t, 104–05
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117, 169
theoretical framework for immigration and, 171–74
Labor productivity
in Central America, 147
in Latin America, 147
in South America, 147
Labor regulations, in sub-Saharan Africa, 127t
Lack economy, 11
Lambert, Frederic, 7, 162
Land allocation
in Asia, 122f
firm performance impacted by, 132f
in Nigeria, 134, 141f, 142f
in sub-Saharan Africa, 122, 122f, 141f
Land markets
in Asia, 119f
firm size and, 125–28
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117
Land ownership, 117, 121, 123, 212
Land regulations, in sub-Saharan Africa, 127t
La Porta, R., 162
LATE. See Local average treatment effect
Latin America, 2, 4, 7, 41, 145, 146
heterogeneity in, 148
informality in, 148–49, 153
labor informality in, 149f
labor markets in, 149, 152, 152f, 157, 164, 165
labor productivity in, 147
Okun’s law for, 157–62
output informality in, 149f
shadow economy in, 41–45
unemployment in, 149, 153–57, 154f, 156f
Latvia, 21–23, 48
Legal barriers
in Senegal, 208–09
for working women, 204–06
Leigh, D., 159
Lerner index, 350, 355, 357–59, 362, 371
data from, 356
Levine, R., 122
Levy, S., 257, 259, 261, 262, 271
Lewis, W. A., 169, 170
Leyva, Angelica MartÃnez, 7, 146
Lichard, T., 49
Light density, 231n2
Light intensity approach, 12, 12n3, 34, 51
Liquidity management, in G2P transfers, 294–95
Lithuania, 22, 23, 48
Lithuanian Free Market Institute, 21
Loayza, N., 227, 234
Local average treatment effect (LATE), 128
Logit regressions
with baseline controls, 333t
multinomial, 330t, 332f, 334t, 335t
Loungani, P., 146, 159
M
MacDonald, Margaux, 8
Macedonia, 73
Macroprudential policies, 316, 318–20, 328–29
demand-side, 332, 336
financial access and, 328–29, 338–39
formal access and, 329–30
informal access and, 329–30
leaks in, 336
loose, 336–38
regional controls on, 329
supply-side, 332
survey, 316, 328
tight, 336–38
Malaysia, 139, 170, 292
Malta, Vivian, 7
Mansoor, A., 270
Maquiladora system, 261, 262
MAR. See Missing at random
Markets. See specific topics
Marriage, 202, 206
education and, 192, 197, 199, 203, 204, 208, 211
informality and, 202, 202f, 203f, 211
Marshall, Alfred, 256
Martinez Peria, M. S., 318
Mastruzzi, M., 327
Mauritius, 139, 193, 202, 206, 267
MCAR. See Missing completely at random
Medina, Leandro, 6, 74, 232, 233, 327
on informal economy, 225f, 232f, 235t, 237t, 242t–45t
MIMIC model used by, 90, 92, 224
on shadow economy, 94–95
Mengistu, Azanaw, 8, 318, 331
Mertens, J., 171
Mexican Tax Administration, 258, 260, 262
Mexico, 148, 153, 155, 157, 254–56, 262, 263
income tax in, 258
Maquiladora system in, 261–62, 261f
property taxes in, 272
social protection in, 257, 266
tax evasion in, 259–62
tax reforms in, 257–63
VATs in, 257–63, 265–66
Meza-Cuadra, C., 227, 234
Miami, 170
Middle East, 205, 329
Migration. See Immigration
MIMIC. See Multiple indicators, multiple causes model
Minimum wage, 117–20, 126–27, 151f, 152f, 153
ILO on, 117–18
labor markets and, 117–18
productivity and, 118–19
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117–19
Minnesota Population Center, 176
Mintz, J., 259
Missing at random (MAR), 36
Missing completely at random (MCAR), 36
Missing not at random (MNAR), 36
MMOs. See Mobile money operators
MNAR. See Missing not at random
MNOs. See Mobile network operators
Mobile banking, financial inclusion and, 317
Mobile money life cycle, 295
Mobile money operators (MMOs), 285, 290, 291, 305t
in G2P transfers, 284f, 285f, 288f, 291–93
Mobile network operators (MNOs), 281, 285, 291
in G2P transfers, 285, 291, 292, 294, 306t
in Nigeria, 285n13
Mobile wallets, 285, 291, 294, 296
Mojaloop, 290
Monetary policy, financial access and, 327–28
Monetary transaction approach, to shadow economy, 24
Monras, J., 170
Montenegro, C. E., 25
Montoro, C., 146
Moonlighting, 14n5
Morales Acevedo, A., 355
M-Pesa, 286, 292
Multinomial logit regressions
with baseline controls, 330t, 334t, 335t, 337t
margin plots of, 332f
Multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) model, 6, 12, 72, 224
absolute values in, 26
adjusted, 47t, 48
for advanced economies, 36t, 41t
calibration of, 12n2
components of, 28
for developing countries, 35t, 40t
double counting problem in, 30–31, 51
estimation procedure, 25f, 26, 28, 48
estimation results, 31–45, 32t–36t, 40t, 41t, 51–52
GDP excluded from, 41t
identification problem with, 27–28
for informality measurement, 231–32
macro, 25–31
measurement model, 28–30
Medina using, 6, 224
negative variance in, 28–29
of OECD countries, 25, 45, 47t
PMM in, 38–41
results, 41–50
reverse standardization, 28
robustness tests, 38–41, 51
Schneider using, 6, 34, 47–49, 51–52
for shadow economy, 12, 26–27, 65f
for shadow economy in EU, 75t, 83t–84t
shortcomings of, 34–41
SNA discrepancy method and, 45–48
structural model, 28
structured hybrid model-based estimation, 14, 28–30
for sub-Saharan Africa, 48t
using night lights, 34, 35t, 36t
Mumbai, 272
Munkacsi, Z., 146, 162
Myanmar, 139, 292
N
Namibia, 139, 283n10
National expenditure, income statistics discrepancy with, 23
National Statistical Offices, 18
Native workers
defining, 168
employment of, 177–78
immigration impacting, 168, 177–78
in informal sector, 181–82
skillsets of, 172–73
substitutability of, 177n9
Natural rate, of informal economy activity, 241
Necessity-driven self-employment, 183
Nelson, M., 230
Niger, 37, 133, 281
Nigeria, 121, 132–35, 193, 281
demographics of, 133
factor allocation in, 141f
firm size in, 135t
labor allocation in, 142f
land allocation in, 142f
MNOs in, 285n13, 292, 300
population of, 133
poverty in, 133
taxation in, 133, 134f
Night lights
for MIMIC model, 35t, 36t, 66f, 231
for shadow economy estimation, 34–36
Nonobserved economy
categories in, 18–20
classification of, 19, 19f
by GDP, 20
by informality type, 20t
Nose, Manabu, 6, 7
Novissi, 281, 297
Nunhuck, Soheib, 8
O
OECD. See Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Official economy, shadow economy and development of, 17t, 24
Official labor force, actual labor force discrepancy with, 23
Oil-exporting countries, robustness tests for, 99–101
Okun’s coefficient
absolute value of, 163
informality and, 161t
labor informality and, 163f
labor institutions and, 159–62
labor markets and, 161t
Okun’s law, 146
for Latin America, 157–62
Olley, S., 120, 121, 136
OLS models, 130, 134
Ongena, S., 355
Open architecture
for G2P transfers, 288–89
standards for, 289–90
Oportunidades, 254, 258, 259, 263, 263n2
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 18, 20, 25, 41, 45, 150, 151, 151n4, 153
MIMIC model of, 47t
SNA discrepancy method of, 47t
Ottaviano, G. G., 170
Output gap, 74n4
estimates of, in EU, 75f
Output informality, in Latin America, 149f
Ozden, C., 170
Oztunali, O., 49, 92, 94, 224, 233, 236
on informal economy, 232f, 246t, 247t
P
Pakes, A., 120, 121, 136
Pakistan, 254, 258, 259, 266, 271, 279, 293, 298
Panel regression, 92, 96, 99, 133
with one-period lags, 101t
with two-period lags, 101t
Paraguay, 292
Patrinos, H., 198
Payment acceptance network, for G2P transfers, 295–96, 308t
Payment platforms, for G2P transfers, 296
Payments, 18, 24, 79–81, 117, 123, 231, 281, 286, 288–97, 310, 324, 349, 353, 377
Payroll tax, 5, 119, 120, 162, 253–55, 257, 258
Peña Nieto, Enrique, 259
Perez-Saiz, Hector, 8, 318, 331
Peri, G. G., 170
Peru, 147, 148, 153, 155, 157, 281, 289, 295
Pesaran, M. H., 158
Pescatori, A., 162
Philippines, 139, 279n4
Pischke, J., 169
PMM. See Predictive mean matching
Poland, 20–22, 48
Policy. See also Macroprudential policies
economic development and, 104–05
in EU, 79–80
for financial inclusion, 317–19
immigration, 167, 185
of shadow economy and implications for, 102–05
for sub-Saharan Africa, 136
for women in informal sector, 211–13
Political environment, institutional variables in, 230–31
Polity IV Database, 228n1
Population
in COVID-19 crisis needing support, 277f
of Nigeria, 133
of sub-Saharan Africa, 115–16
Poverty, in Nigeria, 133
PPP. See Purchasing power parity
Prady, Delphine, 8
Predictive mean matching (PMM), 12, 36–38, 52
advantages of, 37, 38
in MIMIC model, 36–38
for shadow economy estimation, 39t
similarity principle for, 37
Presbitero, A. F., 158
Probit regressions, 214t–20t
Procyclical effects, 351
Productivity
in Asia, 140f
in EU, 76–77
informality and, 6–7
minimum wage and, 118–19
shadow economy and, 76–78
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117, 140f
total factor, 91
Propensity score matching, 37
Property rights, for women, 205
Property taxes
in China, 268
in Mexico, 267
occupancy-based, 270
public services linked to, 268–70
for SDGs, 256–57
Psacharopoulos, G., 198
Public services
property taxes linked to, 268–70
shadow economy and, 15t–16t
Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS), 174
Purchasing power parity (PPP), 93
Putnins, T., 22, 48
Q
Qatar, 100
Qin, D., 318
R
Random effects logit, 236, 237t, 244t, 245t, 248t
Real income, consumption linked to, 172
Real output total factor productivity (TFPQ), 121
Rebei, N., 319
Redistributionist policies, 254
Redundancy costs, 7, 151f, 152, 152f, 153, 160
Reforms, tax, 254, 255
in Mexico, 257–263
Refugees
shadow economy and, 45n29
Syrian, 170–71
Regime change, as institutional variable, 230–31
Régimen de Incorporación Fiscal (RIF), 262
Regressions
IV in first-stage, 130
logit, 333t
multinomial logit, 326, 330t, 332f, 334t, 335t, 337t
panel, 92, 96, 99, 100t, 101t, 133
in robustness test, 92
Regulations. See also specific topics
in EU, 79–80
firm size and, 125–28
of G2P transfers, 300–01
improving, 78–79
of labor markets, 115–16, 120
shadow economy and, 15t–17t
in sub-Saharan Africa, 117
Regulatory barriers, 79
Regulatory burden, 223, 227–28, 230
Regulatory quality
in EU, 76
labor allocation and, 123
shadow economy and, 76
in sub-Saharan Africa, 124f
Reilly, B., 22
Remittances, in EU, 77
REPECOS, 257, 258, 260, 261, 262, 271
Representative surveys, in SNA discrepancy method, 20–22
Reproductive health care, in sub-Saharan Africa, 199, 205, 205f
Responsibility System, 263, 264
Restrepo-Echavarria, P., 146
Reverse standardization, 28
Ribadu Committee Report, 266
RIF. See Régimen de Incorporación Fiscal
Risk management, in G2P transfers, 294
Rivera-Batiz, F., 168, 171, 172
Robinson, J., 227
Robustness checks
dummy variables in, 92
economic development, 96–102
GDP, 96–102
for institutional quality, 236
on institutions, 241
for MIMIC model, 38–41
for oil-exporting countries, 99–102
regressions in, 93
for taxation, 97
with 5-year averages, 98–99
with 10-year averages, 96, 98
Rubin, D. B., 12, 52
Ruge, M., 50
Rukumnuaykit, P., 170
Rural areas
education in, 199, 200f
in Senegal, 199, 200f
Rwanda, 171, 206, 289, 296
S
Safaricom, 292
Sahay, R., 318
Sahn, D. E., 199
SAS Proc MI procedure, 38
Sauka, A., 22, 48
Savings, 281, 318, 323, 324f, 326, 335, 336, 338
Saxegaard, M., 146, 162
Schneider, Friedrich, 6, 25, 27, 34, 47, 48, 232
on electronic payment systems, 80
on informal economy, 223, 224, 225f, 232f, 233, 235t, 237t, 242t–45t, 248t, 249t, 278f, 327
MIMIC model used by, 49–51, 90, 224
on shadow economy, 72, 92, 94
Schoar, A., 183
Schoeni, R. F., 169
SDGs. See Sustainable Development Goals
Self-employment, 30, 37, 169
in formal sector, 182t
immigration and, 174, 182, 183
in informal sector, 172, 183t
necessity-driven, 183
transformational, 183
SEM. See Structural equation modeling
Senegal, 206–11
context of, 206–09
education in, 198–200, 200f, 201f, 207
empirical analysis of, 209–11
employment in, 192
family code in, 208
formal sector in, 199–200
informal employment in, 197f
informal sector in, 192
legal barriers in, 208–09
microdata from, 192
rural areas in, 199, 200f, 208t
social norms in, 207–08
urban areas in, 199, 201f, 208t
women in, 200, 205–06, 209f
World Bank on, 208
SEZs. See Special economic zones
Shadow economy
in Baltic countries, 22t
in Caribbean, 41–42
causation of, 12–13
CDA for, 12, 23, 26, 30t
in CIS, 73–75
company manager surveys and, 22–23
correlation of variables, 108t, 109t
corruption and, 15t, 76
countercyclical nature of, 73–74
during COVID-19, 81
defining, 11–12, 14n9, 52
determinants of, in EU, 78–79
deterrence and, 16t
direct estimation approaches, 49–50
direct estimation methods, 14–23
economic development and, 87–88, 91
education and, 105
electricity consumption for measurement of, 23–24
estimates of, in EU, 72–76, 75f
in Estonia, 30t
in EU, 31f
Feld on, 27–28
GDP and, 87, 88, 89f, 90–97, 94t, 98t–101t, 102f, 103t, 104, 105
as GDP proportion, 21t
in Germany, 30t
human capital in, 77
indirect estimation approaches, 23–25, 51–52
labor market implications, 104–05
in Latin America, 41
long-term trends in, 90
Medina on, 25, 94
migration in, 77
MIMIC model for, 12, 24–25, 65f
MIMIC model for, in EU, 75t, 82t–84t
monetary transaction approach to, 24
names for, 11
night lights for estimation of, 34–36
official economy development and, 17t
PMM for estimation of, 39t
policy implications, 102–05
productivity and, 77–78
public sector services and, 16t
refugees and, 45n29
by region, 45f
regulations and, 15t
regulatory quality and, 78
Schneider on, 27, 90, 92, 94
size of, 46f, 53t–64t
size of, in EU, 73f, 74f
social security and, 15t
statistical office estimates of, 29, 29t
in sub-Saharan Africa, 41
summary statistics of, 42t, 43t, 44t
taxation and, 15t, 16t, 76–77, 79–80
theoretical considerations, 13–14
trade openness and, 76
Shanghai, 267, 268
Shenzhen, 265
Shleifer, A., 162, 234
Skill groups
in immigration, 170, 184–85
low-skilled, 172–74
Skillsets
of foreign workers, 167–69
of native workers, 167–70
Slovak Republic, 20, 46, 49, 73, 74
SNA. See System of National Accounts
SNA discrepancy method
defining, 14n9
hidden activities in, 18
household production in, 18
illegal activities in, 18–20
illegal production in, 18
informal sector production in, 18
MIMIC model and, 45–48
of OECD countries, 47t
representative surveys in, 20–22
statistical underground in, 18
for sub-Saharan Africa, 48t
for underground hidden production, 14
Social assistance programs
informal economy and, 278f
taxonomy of, 279
Social norms, 213
women and, 200–04
Social protection, 2, 5, 191, 211, 254, 256, 275–77, 302
G2P for, 281–84
informality and, 257
in Mexico, 267
Social registry, in G2P transfers, 289
Social security, shadow economy and, 15t
South Africa, 139, 168, 169, 171, 176, 179, 180, 202, 267
stylized facts for, 188f
South America. See also specific countries
employment protection in
labor productivity in
Sparreboom, T., 171
Spearman’s rank correlation, 38
Special economic zones (SEZs), 254
Stakeholders, 284, 287, 294n16, 297, 300, 310
State capacity, 123
defining, 123
labor allocation and, 123
Statistical offices, shadow economy estimates from, 29t
Statistical underground, in SNA discrepancy method, 18
Structural equation modeling (SEM), 25
Structural reforms, in China, 263–66
Subnational services, taxation for, 267–71
Sub-Saharan Africa, 6–8, 47, 136. See also specific countries
aggregate-level analysis of, 121–32
agriculture in, 117
capital ratios in, 374n8
competition in, 358–72
COVID-19 in, 167–68
credit access in, 130–32
data on, 120–21
deindustrialization of, 115
demographics in, 117
education in, 198f, 199
empirical analysis of, 121–34
employment in, 167–69
ethnic fractionalization in, 116, 122
factor allocation in, 121, 126t, 131t, 141f
factor misallocations in, 121–22
financial access in, 357–58
financial inclusion in, 321f, 349
firm growth in, 118f, 136
firm performance in, 128–30, 129t, 131t, 132f, 139f
firm size in, 117, 119f, 121, 128
formal sector in, 195f, 338
gender gaps in, 193–06, 195f
immigration in, 167–69, 173f, 179–80
informal economy in, 195f
informal employment in, 353
informality in, 116, 194, 194f
informal sector in, 115, 195f
labor allocation in, 122, 124f, 132f
labor markets in, 117, 169
labor regulations in, 127t
land allocation in, 122, 122f, 132f
land markets in, 117
land regulations in, 127t
MIMIC models for, 47, 47t, 48t
minimum wage in, 117–19
policy recommendations for, 136
population of, 115
productivity in, 117, 140f
regulations in, 117
regulatory quality in, 124f
reproductive health care in, 199, 205f
shadow economy in, 41
SNA discrepancy method for, 48t
summary statistics for, 137t–38t
taxation in, 130–32
theoretical framework for analysis of, 119–20
women in, 200–06, 209f
Summary statistics
for Asia, 137t, 138t
on institutions, 238
of shadow economy, 42t, 43t, 44t
for sub-Saharan Africa, 137t, 138t
of variables, 110t, 239t, 240t
Supply-loan instruments, 328n8
Supply-side macroprudential policies, 332
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 255
China and, 272
on education, 206n12
property taxes for, 256–57
taxation for, 255–56
Sweden, 21, 22, 29
Syria
immigration from, 170
refugees from, 170–71
System of National Accounts (SNA), 12
discrepancy method, 47t, 48t
Systems GMM estimations, 234–36
T
Takaful program, 289
Tanzania, 292
Tanzi, V., 24
Tavares, Marina M., 7
Taxation. See also Value added taxes
area-based, 270
in emerging markets, 254–55
in EU, 76, 79–80
evasion of, in Mexico, 259–62
factor allocation and, 130–32
fiscal institutions and, 228–29
income, 259
informality and, 1, 5, 8, 253–57
informal sector and, 97n14
institutional variables and, 228–29
national reforms to, 254–55
in Nigeria, 133, 134f
payroll, 119–20
reforms in Mexico, 257–263
reforms to, in China, 263–66
robustness check for, 97
for SDGs, 255–56
shadow economy and, 15t, 16t, 72, 76–77
for subnational service provision, 267–71
in sub-Saharan Africa, 128
tax-benefit links at government levels, 270–71
in United Kingdom, 267
Testaverde, M., 170
TFP. See Total factor productivity
TFPQ. See Real output total factor productivity
Thatcher, Margaret, 256, 268
Tigo, 292
Togo, 139, 279, 281, 297
Toscani, Frederik, 7, 162
Total factor productivity (TFP), 91, 121, 162
Tourpe, Herve, 8
Trade openness, 6, 32, 36, 51, 74, 76, 93, 125, 128, 231
Transfers, 3, 5, 80, 117, 212, 254, 255, 257–59, 268, 269, 271, 275, 276, 279, 281, 283, 284, 286, 287, 292, 293
Transformational self-employment, 183
Transparency, 79, 81, 105, 133, 261, 302, 315
Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, 133
Tumen, S., 170
Turkey, immigration to, 170
U
Undeclared working hours, 21t, 22
Underground hidden production, in SNA discrepancy method, 14–18
Unemployment, 30, 31, 34–35, 51, 71, 145, 146, 149, 155–60, 171, 277
cyclical sensitivity of, 159n12
GDP changes and, 160f
informality and, 156f, 163
in Latin America, 153–57
United Arab Emirates, 100
United Kingdom, 29, 73n3, 256, 267, 268, 270
taxation in, 267
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, 2
United States, 41, 169, 170, 256, 267
Unstructured supplementary service data (USSD), 286n14, 291
Urban areas
education in, 199, 201f
in Senegal, 199, 201f, 208t
User experience, of G2P social transfers, 288–89
USSD. See Unstructured supplementary service data
V
Value added taxes (VATs)
in China, 265
in emerging markets, 254–55
in Mexico, 257–60
van de Ven, P., 14, 18, 46–48
VATs. See Value added taxes
Velling, J., 169
Villa, K., 202
Violence, towards women, 208–09
Viseth, Arina, 7, 176
W
Wage determination, flexibility in, 150f
Wage-employment
in formal sector, 182t
immigration and, 182t, 183t
in informal sector, 183t
Wave Money, 292
WDI. See World Development Indicators
Weck-Hanneman, H., 25
WGI. See Worldwide Governance Index
Wieladek, T., 318
Winter-Ebmer, R., 169
Wodon, Q., 200–02
Women. See also Gender gap
competitiveness of, 200–04
credit access for, 206
discrimination against, 213
double shift of, 200–02
education of, 197–200
equality of, 206, 209f, 212
financial access for, 329
in informal economy, 193–94, 210–11
informal workers, 193–94
institutional access for, 205
legal barriers for working, 204–06
policy recommendations for, 211–13
property rights for, 205
in Senegal, 206–11, 209f
social norms and, 200–04
in sub-Saharan Africa, 209f
violence towards, 208–09
Women and Men in the Informal Economy, 3
Working hours, undeclared, 21t
World Bank, 92n8, 93, 95, 97, 130, 152n5, 208, 270
on Senegal, 208
World Bank Employment Protection Legislation, 151
World Bank Enterprise Survey, 95, 116, 120, 120n3, 123, 123n4, 133
balance sheets from, 117
World Development Indicators (WDI), 93, 158
World Economic Forum, 102, 149, 151, 194
World Economic Outlook, 97, 158
Worldwide Governance Index (WGI), 92n8, 93, 95
Wright, G., 170
Wu, Dong Frank, 6
X
Xiaoping, Deng, 263
Xu, Rui, 8
Y
Yamagata, T., 158
Z
Zhang, X., 318
Zhong, X., 318
Zhuravskaya, E., 122
Zoido-Lobaton, P., 230
Z-tests, 216t–20t
Zukauskas, V., 48
Zweimüller, J., 169