Chapter 6. Global Recoveries: Tales of Revival
Author:
Mr. Ayhan Kose
Search for other papers by Mr. Ayhan Kose in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Mr. Marco Terrones
Search for other papers by Mr. Marco Terrones in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
20 Oct 2015
Download PDF (1.4 MB)

Abstract

As the debates about the recent global recession and the subsequent recovery have clearly shown, our understanding of these questions has been very limited. This comprehensive text puts the latest global recession and ongoing recovery in perspective. With the support of a companion website and DVD, we have created several multimedia tools to help understand the basics.

Chapter Epigraphs

The recovery on which the fate of so many businesses depends has faltered in most major economies. Bankruptcies break new records. The revival in demand in the industrial world this year may soon putter out.

The Economist (1982b)

Many commentators are suggesting that the recent data… indicate that the “green shoots” of an economic recovery are clearly visible. While there do seem to be some signs of improvement… the most recent data may still suggest that the global economic contraction is still in full swing with a very severe, deep and protracted U-shaped recession.

Nouriel Roubini (2009)

Strong recoveries are all alike; every weak recovery has its own story. However, our knowledge about the evolution of global recoveries is limited. How does the world economy recover after a global recession? Has the ongoing recovery after the 2009 global recession been different? This chapter documents the main similarities of global recoveries and presents the specific features of the recovery following the Great Recession.

Global Recoveries: Main Similarities

A recovery at the national level is often defined as the early part of an expansion phase in the business cycle. We define a global recovery as the period—usually the first year—of increasing economic activity following a global recession. In addition, we study the first three years following a global recession, given the possibility that a global recovery can take longer than one year. We focus on the recoveries that followed the global recessions of 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009.

A global recovery is the period—usually the first year—of increasing economic activity following a global recession.

Real Economy

The periods of revivals after global recessions display many similarities (Figure 6.1 and Tables 6.1A and 6.1B).1

Figure 6.1
Figure 6.1

Global Recoveries: Activity Variables

Note: Time 0 denotes the year of the respective global recession (shaded with gray). All variables are in annual frequency. Aggregates for output are purchasing-power-parity-weighted per capita real output indices. Aggregates for industrial production are purchasing-power-parity-weighted industrial production of advanced and emerging market economies. Aggregates for trade are trade-weighted total trade flow indices. Aggregates for unemployment rate are labor-force-weighted unemployment rates in percent. Output, industrial production, trade, and oil consumption are index numbers equal to 100 in the global recession year. For the latest recovery, data for 2013 (year 4) are based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts.
Table 6.1A

Global Recoveries: Activity Variables

(percent change unless otherwise noted)

article image
Note: All variables except industrial production are in annual frequency. Industrial production is in quarterly frequency, and year-over-year growth rates are annualized as the average of four quarters. For unemployment, labor-weighted changes in levels are reported. “Average of First Three Years” column reflects the average of the three years following the global recessions. PW is the purchasing-power-parity-weighted average of the same variable for each country, and MW is the market-weighted average of the same variable for each country.
Table 6.1B

Global Recoveries: Financial Variables and Commodity Prices

(percent change unless otherwise noted)

article image
Note: All variables are in quarterly frequency, and year-over-year growth rates are annualized as the average of four quarters. For inflation, nominal and real short-term interest rates, and London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) overnight rate, the year-over-year changes in levels are reported. “Average of First Three Years” column reflects the average of the three years following the global recessions. MW is the market-weighted average of the same variable for each country.

  • A broad rebound in activity. A typical global recovery is accompanied by a broad rebound in economic activity, generally driven by a pickup in consumption, investment, industrial production, and international trade. How do these variables respond to changes in world output? To answer this, we calculate the changes in these variables in response to a 1 percentage point change in the growth rate of global output per capita. The results indicate that in response to such an increase in world gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita, growth in world consumption per capita increases by 0.8 percentage point, investment by 2.2 percentage points, industrial production by 2.4 percentage points, and trade by 2.5 percentage points (Figure 6.2).2 Most indicators of global activity also start growing in the first year of a recovery. In particular, industrial production, trade, and capital flows quickly rebound during the first year.

  • Some recoveries are stronger than others. The global recovery from the 1975 recession was the strongest in terms of average output growth in the first three years of the recovery. As we discuss in detail below, the latest episode featured an even stronger rebound in global industrial production and trade during the first three years. The global recovery following the 1991 recession was the weakest, partly reflecting sluggish growth in consumption, investment, industrial production, and trade flows.

  • Similar growth performance. The average growth over the three years following a global recession is close to the average growth of the global economy in a typical year.

  • Weak labor markets. Notwithstanding the pickup in activity, the rate of global unemployment often remains high in the year after a trough and tends to be more persistent than most other indicators. For example, during the weak recovery following the 1991 recession the global unemployment rate grew four years in a row.

Figure 6.2
Figure 6.2

Sensitivity of Global Activity Variables

Note: Each bar represents the sensitivity of the respective variable to a 1 percentage point change in world GDP per capita. For example, the growth rate of global consumption per capita increases about 0.8 percentage points when the growth rate of global output per capita increases 1 percentage point. Details of these calculations are presented in Appendix G. PPP = purchasing power parity.

Financial Markets

Global financial markets become healthier as recoveries strengthen over time (Figure 6.3). Although global equity prices on average pick up quickly in the first year of a recovery, house prices tend to stay depressed for two to three years. Credit also takes longer to attain the types of growth rates observed during nonrecession periods. Although creditless recoveries observed in national economies do not take place at the global level, the growth of credit tends to be much weaker during global recoveries than the annual average during the nonrecession years (Table 6.1B).

There appear to be differences in the behavior of financial markets during the four global recoveries. Housing markets were mostly depressed during recoveries following the last three global recessions. In contrast, average growth in equity markets was much larger during the first year of the global recoveries than in other years. Equity markets stayed weak during the recovery after the 1975 recession, reflecting a long period of stagflation in several major advanced economies.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Inflation tends to decline during global recoveries (Figure 6.3). Nominal short-term rates stay low because monetary policies often remain accommodative. In fact, nominal short-term rates have declined in the first year of every global recovery. Real short-term rates tend to pick up, but patterns appear to vary widely across episodes depending on the behavior of inflation and nominal interest rates.

Figure 6.3
Figure 6.3

Global Recoveries: Financial Variables, Interest Rates, and Inflation

Note: Time 0 denotes the year of the respective global recession (shaded with gray). All variables are in annual frequency. All variables are market weighted by output in U.S. dollars. Credit, equity, and house prices are for advanced and emerging market economies and are index numbers equal to 100 in the global recession year. Nominal and real short-term interest rates and inflation are only for advanced economies. Inflation is the change in the consumer price index.

The Latest Recovery: weaker or stronger?

Although the ongoing trajectory of global GDP growth since 2009 was quite similar to the period following the 1975 global recession, there was an even stronger rebound in industrial production and trade in the first three years. The first year of the latest recovery was the strongest among the four episodes (measured in GDP per capita in purchasing-power-parity terms).3 The robustness of the global recovery surprised many observers who expected a much weaker outcome, as the major advanced economies continued to experience the adverse effects of the financial crisis. The qualitative behavior of unemployment during the latest global recovery follows that during the previous episodes. The behavior of credit and equity markets has also been similar to that of the previous episodes.

The current global recovery is significantly different from the previous three episodes in at least five major dimensions. First, one of its most distinguishing features has been its uneven nature, with major differences in the performance of advanced economies and emerging market economies (Figure 6.4 and Table 6.2). Advanced economies were the engines of previous global recoveries, but the emerging market economies have accounted for the lion’s share of global growth since the 2009 global recession (Figure 6.5).

Figure 6.4
Figure 6.4

Global Recoveries: Selected Activity Variables by Country Group

Note: Time 0 denotes the year of the respective global recession (shaded with gray). All variables are in annual frequency. Aggregates for output are purchasing-power-parity-weighted per capita real output indices. Aggregates for trade are trade-weighted total trade flow indices. Aggregates for unemployment rate are labor-force-weighted unemployment rates in percent. Output and trade are index numbers equal to 100 in the global recession year. For the latest recovery, data for 2013 (year 4) are based on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts.
Table 6.2

Global Recoveries: Activity Variables by Country Group

(percent change)

article image
Note: PW is the purchasing-power-parity-weighted average of the same variable for each country, and MW is the market-weighted average of the same variable for each country.
Figure 6.5
Figure 6.5

Contributions to Global Growth during Global Recoveries

(in percent)

Note: Each bar represents the contribution of each country group to world GDP growth (purchasing-power-parity weighted) in the respective time periods.

Moreover, emerging market economies, as a group, have enjoyed their strongest recovery to date. Although they were also severely affected by the collapse of global trade in 2009, they delivered strong growth in 2010, largely driven by buoyant domestic demand, vibrant financial markets, and expansionary policies. However, as discussed in Chapter 5, average growth in emerging market economies during 2010–14 was quite high but was significantly lower than during 2003–08.

article image

The role of emerging market economies in the 2009 global recession

The strong performance of emerging market economies during the early years of the recovery also reflects structural improvements such as better-regulated financial systems and stronger macroeconomic frameworks, which allowed them to pursue more credible and effective countercyclical policies. However, there were differences in the strength of recovery across regions as well (see detailed tables in Appendix H).4

Second, for advanced economies, the latest recovery appears to be the weakest during the postwar era (Figure 6.6).5 This partly reflects the legacy of the global financial crisis, particularly the need for balance sheet repair in both the household and the financial sectors. Some advanced economies in the euro area also struggled to finance their public debt and experienced severe sovereign debt crises. Compared with previous episodes, the growth rates of consumption and investment have also been much smaller. We discuss the role played by financial disruptions in explaining the sluggish nature of the ongoing recovery in advanced economies in Chapter 7.

Figure 6.6
Figure 6.6

Global Recoveries: World and Advanced Economies

Note: Each bar represents the percent change in the respective variable during the years of the global recessions and the global recoveries. The variables for output, consumption, investment, and structural investment are the purchasing-power-parity-weighted averages and are in per capita terms. Output, consumption, and investment are in real terms. Structural investment and exports are in current U.S. dollars.

Third, the deterioration in labor markets was worse during the latest global recovery than during previous episodes, and it was much more pronounced in advanced economies. Consistent with weak income growth in these economies, unemployment fell only very slowly during the recovery, suggesting that the jobless nature of the two previous recoveries also characterizes the latest episode. In emerging market economies, in contrast, unemployment rates slightly declined on average in the first three years of recovery.

Among the advanced economies, increases in the unemployment rate varied considerably across countries during the recession. Three factors account for this: the extent of growth (or lack thereof) in incomes, structural bottlenecks, and the impact of macroeconomic and labor market policies. Structural factors may have played a supporting role in some countries, particularly where the collapse of the housing sector was a major reason for the drop in output. The role of policies, especially labor market policies such as work sharing, has been important in some specific cases (for example, in Germany, where unemployment declined). However, the growth factor was by far most important in explaining the differential performance of labor markets across countries.6

Fourth, cumulative growth in investment was quite small during 2010–12. Contrary to previous global recoveries, there was a contraction in investment in structures in the first three years of the latest recovery. The decline in the growth rate of investment in structures in advanced economies was especially severe because of the deterioration in credit and housing markets. Indeed, this has been the first time that house prices in the United States collapsed nationally. Housing markets in many advanced economies remained weak during 2009–14, and residential investment stayed depressed as households struggled to improve their balance sheets.

Fifth, this recovery has been different because uncertainty in the advanced economies has been unusually high and volatile whereas the previous episodes coincided with steady declines in uncertainty. We analyze the role of uncertainty in explaining macroeconomic outcomes in Chapter 8.

Finally, the latest recovery differs from the earlier episodes in the evolution of fiscal and monetary policies: these policies were aligned in previous recoveries, but they diverged in the latest episode. We present a detailed analysis of this divergence and its implications in Chapter 9.

Is It 1992 All Over Again?

Despite the marked difference in the severity of the 1991 and 2009 global recessions, their underlying causes and the evolution of activity during the following recoveries share remarkable similarities for the group of advanced economies.

Both the 1991 and 2009 global recessions were attended by financial crises, and the ensuing recoveries were weak and protracted.

Both recoveries were preceded by recessions associated with severe disruptions in credit and housing markets in the major advanced economies. In particular, the global recovery following the 1991 recession was adversely affected by the ripple effects of a collapse in credit and asset markets in the United States and Japan.7 Similarly, the deep 2009 global recession was associated with substantial problems in credit and housing markets in the United States and a number of other advanced economies, including Ireland, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

Both recoveries were also slowed by challenges in Europe (Figure 6.7). Specifically, the latest recovery and the one in the early 1990s were hampered by financial market problems in the advanced European economies, driven by their desire to protect the exchange rate mechanisms that they designed—the managed float regime of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in the earlier episode and the euro more recently. As Chapter 3 documents, the earlier recovery was shaped by downturns in many European countries during the ERM crisis of 1992–93, when interest rates were raised to defend the exchange rate arrangement after the 1991 global recession. This further depressed economic activity and credit and housing markets.8

Figure 6.7
Figure 6.7

Global Recoveries: Euro Area

Note: Each bar represents the percent change in the respective variable in the years of the global recessions and recoveries. Growth rates of output, consumption, and investment are the purchasing-power-parity-weighted averages and are in per capita terms. Growth rates of real credit, real house prices, and real equity prices are market weighted by output in U.S. dollars.

The recent recovery lost its momentum in late 2011 as the financial crises in some euro area countries intensified and threatened growth in other parts of the world. Challenges associated with sovereign debt markets in some countries in the euro area exposed the flaws in the design of monetary union and led many member countries to resort to the use of contractionary fiscal policies amid a protracted period of balance sheet repair.9 The euro area suffered a double-dip recession that started in the third quarter of 2011. After experiencing its longest recession ever, the euro area began growing again, albeit at a very low rate, in the second quarter of 2013. Several countries again fell into recession or experienced weak growth during 2014.

article image

The devastating effects of the crisis have lingered, particularly in Europe.

A speech in July 2012 by European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi marked a critical turning point in the euro area crisis as he sent a strong signal about the ECB’s policy line when he said that “the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”10 Financial markets in Europe stayed relatively calm since the ECB employed its Outright Monetary Transactions program in September 2012 to lower the borrowing costs of EU periphery countries. However, corporate and household debt both remained high, which dampened growth during 2014.

There was substantial volatility in world oil markets during the global recessions of both 1991 and 2009. Oil prices increased rapidly in the 1991 episode, mainly because of the Gulf War. Likewise, oil prices escalated during the 2009 global recession to unprecedented levels in a short time. Although prices declined during the recovery following the 1991 recession (and other episodes), oil prices remained elevated through mid-2014, which was a drag on the recovery process. However, oil prices rapidly declined in the second half of 2014.

The recoveries following the 1991 and 2009 global recessions were both characterized by meager growth in advanced economies. In part, this was the result of disappointing growth in domestic consumption and investment, which in turn was driven by the legacies of the financial crisis in advanced economies—namely, the need to mend household balance sheets, weak credit expansion, and lingering problems in housing markets. Persistently high unemployment also marked both of these recoveries.

Large and Persistent Human and Social Costs

Adverse macroeconomic events, such as national recessions and crises, often carry significant human and societal costs. These have far-reaching implications, including the loss of jobs and lifetime incomes, increased poverty and inequality, loss of human capital, discouraged workers and lower labor force participation, weaker health outcomes, lower fertility rates, and a loss of social cohesion.11

article image

The large social and human costs of global recessions have always left scars extending well beyond the period of recession and recovery.

Global recessions are periods of collapse for the world economy. This is not simply because of the decline in income per capita but also because of the enormous social and human toll they inflict. The world economy has been able to deliver growth in income per capita in the year following each global recession since 1960. However, the large social and human costs of these episodes have always left scars extending well beyond the period of recession and recovery.

In the 2009 global recession, for example, the adverse effects on labor markets were particularly pronounced, and it turned into a “jobs crisis” in many parts of the world.12 The number of people unemployed globally rose from 178 million in 2007 to 212 million in 2009. In 2014, seven years after the beginning of the global financial crisis, the global jobless totaled a staggering 201 million. The large and persistent social and human costs make all the more important a rigorous understanding of the sources of global recessions and policy responses to cope with them.

Global Expansions: What Happens between Global Recessions?

A global recovery is the early stage of the expansion phase in the global business cycle, and between two global recessions there is an expansion phase.13 We now briefly discuss the key features of global expansions.

The world economy experienced four expansions since the 1974 recession: 1975–81, 1983–90, 1992–2008, and one that started in 2010. The duration of the first three global expansions varied, with a minimum of 7 and a maximum of 17 years. The longest global expansion, 1992–2008, accompanied the information technology revolution and the economic transformation of China and many other emerging market economies.14 Although the longest expansion featured the “Great Moderation” in macroeconomic volatility, the period also included the 1998 and 2001 global downturns during which the world economy came close to experiencing a recession. The latest global expansion turned six years old in 2015.

article image

The global expansion from 1992 to 2008 featured the economic rise of Asia.

The world economy registered 2 percent per capita GDP growth on average during the first three expansions (Figures 6.8 and 6.9). The latest expansion has seen relatively higher average growth so far primarily because of the vibrancy of emerging market economies. However, the average rate of global unemployment has been higher than during previous expansions, and credit and housing markets have performed worse in the aftermath of the 2009 global recession.

Figure 6.8
Figure 6.8

Global Expansions: Activity and Financial Variables

Note: Each bar represents the average growth of the respective variable during the years of the global expansions. Growth rate of output is the purchasing-power-parity-weighted averages and is in per capita terms. Aggregates for trade are trade-weighted total trade flow indices. Aggregates for unemployment rate are labor-force-weighted unemployment rates in percent. Growth rates of real credit, real house prices, and real equity prices are market weighted by output in U.S. dollars.
Figure 6.9
Figure 6.9

Global Expansions: Activity Variables by Country Group

Note: Each bar represents the average growth of the respective variable during the years of the global expansions. Growth rate of output is the purchasing-power-parity-weighted averages and is in per capita terms. Aggregates for trade are trade-weighted total trade flow indices. Aggregates for unemployment rate are labor-force-weighted unemployment rates in percent.

The Collapse of 2009 under a Microscope

There has been much discussion about what made the 2009 global recession so severe and the recovery so weak in advanced economies. In Part III we closely examine the main factors that explain the depth of the recession and the sluggish nature of the recovery. We start with an examination of the implications of the highly synchronized nature of the 2009 global recession.

Within Same Series

Other IMF Content

Other Publishers Content

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover Collapse and Revival
Collapse and Revival
Understanding Global Recessions and Recoveries
ISBN:
9781513570020
Publication Date:
20 Oct 2015
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513570020.071
Pages:
292
Figure 6.1

Global Recoveries: Activity Variables
Figure 6.2

Sensitivity of Global Activity Variables
Figure 6.3

Global Recoveries: Financial Variables, Interest Rates, and Inflation
Figure 6.4

Global Recoveries: Selected Activity Variables by Country Group
Figure 6.5

Contributions to Global Growth during Global Recoveries

(in percent)
Figure 6.6

Global Recoveries: World and Advanced Economies
Figure 6.7

Global Recoveries: Euro Area
Figure 6.8

Global Expansions: Activity and Financial Variables
Figure 6.9

Global Expansions: Activity Variables by Country Group

  • Abberger, K., and W. Nierhaus. 2008. “How to Define a Recession?” CESifo Forum 4: 74–76.

  • Abiad, A., R. Balakrishnan, P. Koeva Brooks, D. Leigh, and I. Tytell. 2009. “What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics after Banking Crises.” IMF Working Paper 09/245. International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Abiad, A., D. Furceri, and P. Topalova. 2015. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies.” IMF Working Paper 15/95. International Monetary Fund.

  • Acosta, P. A., E. K. K. Lartey, and F. S. Mandelman. 2009. “Remittances and the Dutch Disease.” Journal of International Economics 79 (1): 102–16.

  • Adrian, T., and H. S. Shin. 2008. “Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Cycles.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance 14 (1): 1–7.

  • Ahmed, S., A. Levin, and B. A. Wilson. 2004. “Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?” Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (3): 824–32.

  • Aiolfi, M., L. A. V. Catão, and A. Timmermann. 2011. “Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles.” Journal of Development Economics 95 (2): 212–28.

  • Akin, C., and M. A. Kose. 2008. “Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations.” Journal of Asian Economics 19: 1–28.

  • Alesina, A. 2012. “Fiscal Policy after the Great Recession.” Atlantic Economic Journal 40 (4): 429–35.

  • Alesina A., and S. Ardagna. 2010. “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending.” Tax Policy and the Economy 24: 35–68.

  • Alesina, A., and F. Giavazzi. 2013. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press and National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Alessandria, G., J. P. Kaboski, and V. Midrigan. 2010. “The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09: An Inventory Adjustment.” IMF Economic Review 58 (2): 254–94.

  • Allen, R. E., 2010. Financial Crises and Recession in the Global Economy. Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar, 3rd ed.

  • Almunia, M., A. Benetrix, B. Eichengreen, K. O’Rourke, and G. Rua. 2010. “From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, Differences, and Lessons.” Economic Policy 25 (62): 219–65.

  • Altig, D., S. M. Byrne, and K. A. Samolyk. 1992. “Is Household Debt Inhibiting the Recovery?” Economic Commentary. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

  • Ambler, S., E. Cardia, and C. Zimmermann. 2004. “International Business Cycles: What Are the Facts?” Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (2): 257–76.

  • Amiti, M., and D. E. Weinstein. 2011. “Exports and Financial Shocks.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (4): 1841–77.

  • Angeloni, I., and J. Pisani-Ferry. 2012. “The G20: Characters in Search of an Author,” Bruegel Working Paper 2012/04.

  • Aoki, K., J. Proudman, and G. Vlieghe. 2004. “House Prices, Consumption, and Monetary Policy: A Financial Accelerator Approach.” Journal of Financial Intermediation 13 (4): 414–35.

  • Arellano, C., Y. Bai, and P. Kehoe. 2012. “Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty.” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Department Staff Report.

  • Arora, V., and A. Vamvakidis. 2004. “How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?” IMF Working Paper 04/26, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Artis, M. J., Z. G. Kontolemis, and D. R. Osborn. 1997. “Business Cycles for G-7 and European Countries.” Journal of Business 70: 249–79.

  • Artis, M. J., M. Marcellino, and T. Proietti. 2003. “Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle.” CEPR Discussion Paper 3696, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

  • Aslam, A., S. Beidas-Strom, M. E. Terrones, and J. Yepez. 2014. “Are Global Imbalances at a Turning Point?.” World Economic Outlook. October. International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Atkinson, T., D. Luttrell, and H. Rosenblum. 2013. “How Bad Was It? The Costs and Consequences of the 2007–09 Financial Crisis.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Paper No. 20.

  • Auerbach, A., and Y. Gorodnichenko. 2012. “Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy.” American Economic Journal—Economic Policy 4: 1–27.

  • Bacchetta, P., and E. van Wincoop. 2013. “The Great Recession: A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic.” NBER Working Paper 19062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Bachmann, R., and C. Bayer. 2011. “Uncertainty Business Cycles—Really?” NBER Working Paper 16862. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2013. “‘Wait-and-See’ Business Cycles?” Journal of Monetary Economics 60 (6): 704–19.

  • ———. 2014. “Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle.” American Economic Review, 104 (4): 1392–416.

  • Bachmann, R., and G. Moscarini. 2011. “Business Cycles and Endogenous Uncertainty.” 2011 Meeting Papers 36, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  • Baffes, J., M. A. Kose, F. Ohnsorge, and M. Stocker. 2015. “The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses,” Policy Research Note: 1, World Bank.

  • Baily, M. N., and B. Bosworth. 2013. “The United States Economy: Why Such a Weak Recovery?” paper presented at the Nomura Foundation’s Macro Economy Research Conference, Prospects for Growth in the World’s Four Major Economies, September 11, Brookings Institution.

  • Baker, S., and N. Bloom. 2013. “Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments.” NBER Working Paper 19475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Baker, S., N. Bloom, B. Canes-Wrone, S. J. Davis, and J. A. Rodden. 2014. “Why Has U.S. Policy Uncertainty Risen Since 1960?” NBER Working Paper, No. 19826.

  • Baker, S., N. Bloom, and S. J. Davis. 2012. “The Rocky Balboa Recovery” VoxEU, June 20.

  • ———. 2013. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” Stanford University Working Paper, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.

  • Baldwin, R., and S. Evenett, eds. 2009. The Collapse of Global Trade, Murky Protectionism, and the Crisis: Recommendations for the G20, VoxEU.

  • Balke, N. S., and M. A. Wynne. 1995. “Recessions and Recoveries in Real Business Cycle Models,” Economic Inquiry 33: 640–63.

  • Ball, L. 2014. “Long-term Damage from the Great Recession in OECD Countries,” NBER Working Paper, No. 20185.

  • Ball, L., D. Leigh, and P. Loungani. 2013. “Okun’s Law: Fit at 50?” IMF Working Paper 13/10, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Barro, R. J. 1981. Money, Expectations, and Business Cycles. New York.

  • Barsky, R. B., and L. Kilian. 2004. “Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4): 115–34.

  • Barth, J. R., S. Trimbath, and G. Yago. 2004. The Savings and Loan Crisis: Lessons from a Regulatory Failure. Milken Institute Series on Financial Innovation and Economic Growth.

  • Basu, S., and J. Fernald. 2000. “Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?” NBER Working Paper 7940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Bauer, M. D., and G. D. Rudebusch. 2012. “The Signaling Channel for Federal Reserve Bond Purchases.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2011–21.

  • Baumeister, C., and L. Benati. 2010. “Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession.” ECB Working Paper 1258, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

  • Baxter, M., and M. A. Kouparitsas. 2005. “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (1): 113–57.

  • Bayer, A., V. Gaspar, C. Gerberding, and M. Issing. 2009. “Opting Out of the Great Inflation: German Monetary Policy after the Break Down of Bretton Woods.” ECB Working Paper 1020, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

  • BBC News. 1973. “Arab States Attack Israeli Forces,” October 6.

  • ———. 1989. “Berliners Celebrate the Fall of the Wall,” November 9.

  • ———. 1990. “Iraq Invades Kuwait,” August 2.

  • ———. 1992. “UK Crashes out of ERM,” September 16.

  • ———. 2010a. “Eurozone Approves Massive Greece Bail-out,” May 2.

  • ———. 2010b. “Irish Republic 85bn Euro Bail-out Agreed,” November 28.

  • ———. 2011. “Eurozone Agrees New 109bn Euros Greek Bailout,” July 21.

  • Beauchemin, K. R. 2011. “Not Your Father’s Recovery?” FRB Cleveland Economic Commentary (September).

  • Bems, R., R. C. Johnson, and K. Yi. 2010. “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession.” IMF Economic Review 58 (2): 295–326.

  • ———. 2012. “The Great Trade Collapse.” NBER Working Paper 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Bergman, U. M., M. D. Bordo, and L. Jonung. 1998. “Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience,” in Beyond Shocks: What Causes Business Cycles? edited by J. C. Fuhrer and S. Schuh. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series 42: 65–113.

  • Berkmen, P., G. Gelos, R. Rennhack, and J. P. Walsh. 2009. “The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact.” IMF Working Paper 09/280, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Berle, A. A., Jr. 1953. “Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Economic Scientist.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 48 (262): 169–75.

  • Bernanke, B. S. 1983. “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1): 85–106.

  • ———. 1993. “Credit in the Macroeconomy,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review (Spring): 50–70.

  • ———. 2004. “The Great Moderation,” remarks at the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, February 20.

  • ———. 2012a. “Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

  • ———. 2012b. “The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy,” remarks at the Economic Club of New York.

  • ———. 2013. The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • ———. 2014. “The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward,” speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, January 3.

  • ———. 2015a. “Why are Interest Rates So Low?” Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings Institute.

  • ———. 2015b. “Why are Interest Rates So Low, part 2: Secular Stagnation” Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings Institute.

  • ———. 2015c. “Why are Interest Rates So Low, part 3: The Global Savings Glut” Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings Institute.

  • ———. 2015d. “Why are Interest Rates So Low, part 4: Term Premiums” Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings Institute.

  • ———. 2015e. “WSJ Editorial Page Watch: The Slow-Growth Fed?” Ben Bernanke’s Blog, Brookings Institute.

  • Bernanke, B. S., and M. Gertler. 1989. “Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations,” American Economic Review 79: 14–31.

  • Bernanke, B. S., and C. S. Lown. 1991. “The Credit Crunch.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2: 205–47.

  • Bernanke, B. S., M. Gertler, and S. Gilchrist. 1999. “The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,” in Handbook of Macroeconomics Vol. 1, edited by J. B. Taylor and M. Woodford, 1341–393.

  • Blanchard, O. J. 1993. “Consumption and the Recession of 1990–1991,” American Economic Review 83 (2): 270–74.

  • ———. 2001. “Close Encounters with Recessions of the Third Kind.” Project Syndicate, March 12.

  • ———. 2008. “Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook,” October 9. http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm.

  • ———. 2009a. “The State of Macro.” Annual Review of Economics 1 (1): 209–28.

  • ———. 2009b. “The Crisis: Basic Mechanism and Appropriate Policies,” CESifo Forum 10 (1): 3–14.

  • ———. 2009c. “(Nearly) Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself.” Guest Article, Economist, January 29.

  • ———. 2010. “Sustaining a Global Recovery.” Journal of Policy Modeling 32 (5): 604–9.

  • ———. 2013. “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy.” VoxEU, May 9.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and S. Fischer. 1989. Lectures on Macroeconomics. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and D. Leigh. 2013a. “Fiscal Consolidation: At What Speed?” VoxEU, May 3.

  • ———. 2013b. “Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers.” IMF Working Paper 13/1, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti. 2012. “(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?” IMF Economic Review 60 (1): 139–50.

  • ———. 2009. “Global Imbalances: In Midstream?” IMF Staff Position Note 09/29, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and R. Perotti. 2002. “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (4): 1329–68.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and J. Simon. 2001. “The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 135–64.

  • Blanchard, O. J., and J. Viñals. 2009. “Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.” World Economic Outlook, April: xii–xiv. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

  • Blanchard, O. J., G. Dell’Ariccia, and P. Mauro. 2010. “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 42 (1): 199–215.

  • ———. 2013. “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy II: Getting Granular.” IMF Staff Discussion Note13/03, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Blanchard, O. J., H. Faruqee, and M. Das. 2010. “The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring): 264–323.

  • Blanchard, O. J., F. Jaumotte, and P. Loungani. 2013. “Labor Market Policies and IMF Advice in Advanced Economies during the Great Recession.” IMF Staff Discussion Note 13/02, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Blanchard, O. J., D. Romer, J. Stiglitz, and M. Spence. 2012. In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

  • Blinder, A. S. 2013. After the Music Stopped: The Financial Crisis, the Response, and the Work Ahead. New York: Penguin Press.

  • Blinder, A. S., and J. B. Rudd. 2012. “The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited,” in The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Bloom, N. 2009. “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks.” Econometrica 77 (3): 623–85.

  • ———. 2013. “Fluctuations in Uncertainty.” NBER Working Paper 19714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Bloom, N., M. A. Kose, and M. E. Terrones. 2013. “Held Back by Uncertainty.” Finance & Development 50 (1): 38–41.

  • Bloom, N., M. Floetotto, N. Jaimovich, I. Saporta-Eksten, and S. Terry. 2012. “Really Uncertain Business Cycles.” NBER Working Paper, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Bloomberg News. 2012. “Draghi Says ECB Will Do What’s Needed to Preserve Euro,” July 26.

  • Bluedorn, J. C., J. Decressin, and M. E. Terrones. 2013. “Do Asset Price Drops Foreshadow Recessions?” IMF Working Paper 13/203, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2008. Press Release, December 16.

  • ———. 2013. Press Release, December 18.

  • ———. 2014. “Monetary Policy Report,” February 11.

  • Bordo, M. D. 2012a. “Financial Recessions Don’t Lead to Weak Recoveries.” Wall Street Journal, September 27.

  • Bordo, M. D. 2012b. “The Great Depression and the Great Recession: What Have we Learnt?” Fourth P.R. Brahmananda Memorial Lecture in Mumbai. Reserve Bank of India.

  • Bordo, M. D., and J. G. Haubrich. 2012. “Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 12/14.

  • Bordo, M., and T. Helbling. 2004. “Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?” in Macroeconomic Policies in the World Economy, edited by H. Siebert. Berlin: Springer.

  • Boskin, M. J. 2009. “Global Disaster Recovery.” Project Syndicate, March 23.

  • Bosworth, B., and S. Collins, 2010. “Rebalancing the U.S. Economy in a Post-Crisis World.” Paper presented at the Trans-Pacific Rebalancing Conference organized by the Asian Development Bank Institute and the Brookings Institution, March 3–4, Tokyo.

  • Bosworth, B., and A. Flaaen. 2009. “America’s Financial Crisis: The End of an Era.” Paper presented at Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Impacts, Lessons, and Growth Rebalancing Conference, April 22–23, Tokyo.

  • Bown, C. P., ed. 2011, The Great Recession and Import Protection: The Role of Temporary Trade Barriers. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research and World Bank.

  • Broda, C., and C. Tille. 2003. “Coping with Terms-of-Trade Shocks in Developing Countries.” Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (November).

  • Bronfenbrenner, M. 1969. Is the Business Cycle Obsolete? New York: Wiley.

  • Brunnermeier, M. K. 2009. “Deciphering the 2007–08 Liquidity and Credit Crunch.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (1): 77–100.

  • ———, and Y. Sannikov. 2012. “A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector.” 2012 Meeting Papers 507, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  • Bry, G., and C. Boschan. 1971. Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Buiter, W. H., G. M. Corsetti, and P. A. Pesenti. 1998. “Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues.” Princeton Studies in International Finance 84.

  • Buiter, W. H., E. Rahbari, and J. Seydl. 2014. “Secular Stagnation: Only If We Really Ask for It.” Global Economic View, Citi Research, January 13.

  • Buiter, W. 2015. “Is China Leading the World into Recession?” Global Economic View, Citi Research, September 8.

  • Burns, A. F., ed. 1952. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Economic Scientist. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Burns, A. F., and W. C. Mitchell. 1947. Measuring Business Cycles. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Burstein, A., C. Kurz, and L. Tesar. 2008. “Trade, Production Sharing, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics 55 (4): 775–95.

  • Businessweek. 2000. “The New Economy,” January 30.

  • Bussière, M., E. Perez-Barreiro, R. Straub, and D. Taglioni. 2010. “Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Global Trends and Implications.” ECB Working Paper 110, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

  • Bussière, M., G. Callegari, F. Ghironi, G. Sestieri, and N. Yamano. 2013. “Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008–09.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5 (3): 118–51.

  • Byrne, D. M., S. D. Oliner, and D. E. Sichel. 2013. “Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?” Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series.

  • Caballero, R. J. 2010. “Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (4): 85–102.

  • Callen, T. 2007. “PPP versus the Market: Which Weight Matters?” Finance and Development 44: 50–51.

  • ———. 2008. “Gross Domestic Product: An Economy’s All.” Finance and Development 45 (March): 48–49.

  • Calomiris, C. W. 2009. “The Subprime Turmoil: What’s Old, What’s New, and What’s Next.” Journal of Structured Finance 15 (1): 6–52.

  • Calomiris, C. W., and S. H. Haber. 2014. Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • Calvo, G., and R. Loo-Kung. 2010. “US Recovery: A New ‘Phoenix Miracle’?” VoxEu.

  • Calvo, G. A., C. Reinhart, E. Fernández-Arias, and E. Talvi. 2001. “Growth and External Financing in Latin America,” Working Paper 4277, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington.

  • Canova, F. 1998. “Detrending and Business Cycle Facts.” Journal of Monetary Economics 41 (3): 475–512.

  • ———. 2005. “The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 20 (2): 229–51.

  • ———, M. Ciccarelli, and E. Ortega. 2007. “Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (3): 850–78.

  • Cardarelli, R., S. Elekdag, and M. A. Kose. 2010. “Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses.” Economic Systems 34: 333–56.

  • Carlson, M. 2006. “A Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash.” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Working Paper.

  • Carrell, P. 2011. “ECB Says Will ‘Actively Implement’ Bond-buying,” August 7, Reuters.

  • Carrière-Swallow, Y., and L. F. Céspedes. 2013. “The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks in Emerging Economies.” Journal of International Economics 90 (2): 316–25.

  • Carroll, C. D., M. Otsuka, and J. Slacalek. 2006. “How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach.” Economics Working Paper Archive Vol. 535, Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics, Baltimore, Maryland.

  • Caruana, J. 2013. “Hitting the Limits of ‘Outside the Box’ Thinking? Monetary Policy” in The Crisis and Beyond, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum lecture. London.

  • Carvalho C., S. Eusipe, and C. Grisse. 2012. “Policy Initiatives in the Global Recession: What Did Forecasters Expect?” Current Issues in Economics and Finance. New York: Federal Reserve Bank.

  • Case, K., J. Quigley, and R. Shiller. 2013. “Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975–2012,” NBER Working Paper 18667, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Cassidy, K. 2014. “Is Larry Summers Right about ‘Secular Stagnation’?” New Yorker, January 8.

  • Castle, S. 2012. “O.E.C.D., Slashing Growth Outlook, Warns of Global Recession,” New York Times, November 27.

  • Cecchetti, S. G. 2006. “Measuring the Macroeconomic Risks Posed by Asset Price Booms.” NBER Working Paper 12542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2009. “Crisis and Responses: The Federal Reserve in the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (1): 51–75.

  • Cecchetti, S. G., M. Kohler, and C. Upper. 2009. “Financial Crises and Economic Activity.” Proceedings—Economic Policy Symposium—Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 89–135.

  • Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). 2003. “Business-Cycle Dating Committee Report,” London.

  • ———. 2009. “Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee: Determination of the 2008 Q1 Peak in Economic Activity,” London.

  • ———. 2010. Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee: Determination of the 2009 Q2 Trough in Economic Activity,” London.

  • ———. 2012. Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee: Euro Area Business Cycle Peaked in Third Quarter of 2011, Has Been in Recession Since,” London.

  • ———. 2014. Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee: Euro Area Mired in Recession Pause,” London.

  • Cesa-Bianchi, A., M. H. Pesaran, and A. Rebucci. 2014. “Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective” Unpublished Working Paper.

  • Chandra, S. 2009. “U.S. Factories Contracted at Fastest Pace since 1980 (Update2),” Bloomberg, January 2.

  • Chari, A., and P. B. Henry. 2013. “Two Tales of Adjustment: East Asian Lessons for European Growth.” Paper Presented at the 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, November 7–8, Washington.

  • Chen, H., V. Cúrdia, and A. Ferrero. 2012. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs.” The Economic Journal 122 (564): 289–315.

  • Chinn, M. D. 2011. “Regulatory Uncertainty, Macro Policy Uncertainty, and Demand.” Econbrowser.com, December 22.

  • ———. 2013. “Global Supply Chains and Macroeconomic Relationships in Asia.” Unpublished, University of Wisconsin.

  • ———. 2014. “Fiscal Multipliers.” The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, forthcoming.

  • Chor, D., and K. Manova. 2012. “Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis.” Journal of International Economics 87: 117–33.

  • Christiano, L., M. Eichenbaum, and S. Rebelo. 2011. “When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?” Journal of Political Economy 119: 78–121.

  • Christiano, L., M. Eichenbaum, and M. Trabandt. 2014. “Understanding the Great Recession,” NBER Working Paper, No. 20040.

  • Chui, M., P. Levine, S. M. Murshed, and J. Pearlman. 2002. “North-South Models of Growth and Trade.” Journal of Economic Surveys 16: 123–43.

  • Cimilluca, D., A. Macdonald, and S. S. Munoz. 2008. “Lloyds TSB to Acquire HBOS as U.K. Seeks Bank Stability.” Wall Street Journal, September 18.

  • Claessens, S., and K. Forbes. 2001. “International Financial Contagion: An Overview of the Issues and the Book,” in International Financial Contagion, edited by S. Claessens and K. Forbes. Boston: Kluwer Academic Press.

  • Claessens, S., and M. A. Kose. 2009. “What Is a Recession?” Finance and Development 46 (1): 52–53.

  • ———. 2014a. “Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes.” Forthcoming IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———. 2014b. “Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Imperfections.” Forthcoming IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund Washington.

  • ———. 2014c. “Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications,” in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, edited by S. Claessens, M. A. Kose, L. Laeven, and F. Valencia. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

  • Claessens, S., M. A. Kose, and M. E. Terrones. 2008a. “When Crises Collide.” Finance and Development 45 (4).

  • ———. 2008b. “Global Financial Crisis: How Long? How Deep?” VoxEU, October 7.

  • ———.2009. “What Happens during Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?” Economic Policy 60: 653–700.

  • ———. 2010. “The Global Financial Crisis: How Similar? How Different? How Costly?” Journal of Asian Economics 21 (3): 247–64.

  • ———. 2011a. “Financial Cycles: What? How? When?” in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics (ISOM) 2010, edited by R. Clarida and F. Giavazzi. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 303–43.

  • ———. 2011b. “Gyrations in Financial Markets.” Finance and Development 48 (1).

  • ———. 2012. “How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?” Journal of International Economics 87 (1): 178–90.

  • Claessens, S., M. A. Kose, L. Laeven, and F. Valencia, eds. 2014. Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

  • Cleveland, H., and B. Brittain. 1975. “A World Depression?” Foreign Affairs 53 (2): 223–41.

  • CNN. 2009. “G-20 Pumps $1 Trillion into Beating Recession,” April 2.

  • Cochrane, J. H., ed. 2006. “Financial Markets and the Real Economy,” in International Library of Critical Writings in Financial Economics (18): 11–19.

  • ———. 2009a. “How Did Paul Krugman Get It So Wrong?” Unpublished.

  • ———. 2009b. “Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Inflation, or Fiscal Fallacies?” University of Chicago, Booth School of Business.

  • ———. 2012. “Austerity, Stimulus, or Growth Now?” The Grumpy Economist, March 21.

  • ———. 2014. “An Autopsy for the Keynesians,” Wall Street Journal, December 26.

  • Coenen, G., C. J. Erceg, C. Freedman, D. Furceri, M. Kumhof, R. Lalonde, D. Laxton, J. Lindé, A. Mourougane, D. Muir, S. Mursula, C. de Resende, J. Roberts, W. Roeger, S. Snudden, M. Trabandt, and J. Veld. 2012. “Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4: 1–47.

  • Cogan, J. F., and J. B. Taylor. 2012. “What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package,” in Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, edited by L. E. Ohanian, J. B. Taylor, and I. J. Wright. Stanford, California: Stanford University.

  • Cotis, J., and J. Coppel. 2005. “Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications.” RBA Annual Conference Volume, in The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle, edited by C. C. Kent and D. D. Norman. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.

  • Council of Economic Advisers. 2009. “Housing and Financial Markets.” Chapter 2, Economic Report to the President.

  • ———. 2010. “Crisis and Recovery in the World Economy.” Chapter 3, Economic Report to the President.

  • ———. 2012. “To Recover, Rebalance, and Rebuild.” Chapter 1, Economic Report to the President.

  • ———. 2014a. “The Economic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Five Years Later.” Final Report to Congress.

  • ———. 2014b. “The Fifth Anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.”

  • Coyle, D. 2014. GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • Currie, D., and D. Vines. 1988. Macroeconomic Interactions between North and South. New York: Cambridge University Press.

  • Curry, T., and L. Shibut. 2000. “The Cost of the Savings and Loan Crisis: Truth and Consequences.” FDIC Banking Review 13 (2): 26–35.

  • Daly, M. C., J. Fernald, O. Jorda, and F. Nechid. 2013. “Labor Markets in the Global Financial Crisis.” FRBSF Economic Letter 38.

  • D’Amico, S., W. English, D. Lopez-Salido, and E. Nelson. 2012. “The Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchase Programs: Rationale and Effects.” Finance and Discussion Series Paper 2012-85, Federal Reserve Board, Washington.

  • Dao, M., and P. Loungani. 2010. “The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It.” IMF Staff Position Note 10/17, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Davies, G. 2011. “Monitoring the Risk of Global Recession.” Financial Times, September 5.

  • ———. 2014. “Global Policy Mix Turns More Growth Friendly,” Financial Times, November 24.

  • Davies, P. 2012. “Asian Crisis: 10 Lessons for Europe.” Financial Times, June 8.

  • Davis, S. J. 2013. “Straw Man Bites the Dust: A Response to Paul Krugman on Policy Uncertainty.” Capital Ideas (website), University of Chicago, Booth School of Business.

  • Davis, S. J., and J. A. Kahn. 2008. “Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (4): 155–80.

  • De Gregorio, J. 2014. How Latin America Weathered the Global Financial Crisis. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

  • de Haan, J., R. Inklaar, and R. Jong-A-Pin. 2008. “Will Business Cycles in the Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey of Empirical Research.” Journal of Economic Surveys 22 (2): 234–73.

  • DeLong, J. B. 2011a. “The Little Depression.” Blog, June 10.

  • ———, J. B. 2011b. “The Anatomy of Slow Recovery.” Project Syndicate, March 31.

  • DeLong, and L. H. Summers. 2012. “Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (March).

  • Dées, S., and N. Zorell. 2012. “Business Cycle Synchronization: Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages.” Open Economies Review 23 (4): 623–43.

  • Department of the Treasury. 1992. “International Economic and Exchange Rate Policy.” Report to the U.S. Congress, May 12.

  • Dervis, K. 2012. “Convergence, Interdependence, and Divergence.” Finance and Development 49 (3).

  • ———. 2013. “Catching up at Different Speeds.” Brookings Institution, December 17.

  • ———. 2014. “Tailspin or Turbulence?” Brookings Institution, February 18.

  • Desai, S., and M. Jones. 2008. “Northern Rock Nationalised.” Reuters, February 17.

  • di Giovanni, J., and A. A. Levchenko. 2010. “Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Vol. 2: 95–124.

  • Diebold, F. X., and K. Yilmaz. 2009. “Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers with Application to Global Equity Markets.” The Economic Journal 119 (534): 158–71.

  • ———. 2014. “Measuring the Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Connectedness,” in Unobserved Components and Time Series Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Andrew C. Harvey, edited by S. J. Koopman and N. Shephard. Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming.

  • Dixit, A. K., and R. S. Pindyck. 1994. Investment under Uncertainty. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • Dornbusch, R. 1985. “Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2: 303–56.

  • Dornbusch, R., T. Johnson, and A. Krueger. 1988. “Our LDC Debts,” in The United States in the World Economy, edited by Martin Feldstein. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  • Draghi, M. 2012 Speech at the Global Investment Conference in London, July 26.

  • Dua, P., and A. Banerji. 2010. “Synchronization of Recessions in Major Developed and Emerging Economies.” Journal of Applied Economic Research 4 (2): 197–223.

  • Dudley, W. C. 2014 “U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Economies.” Speech, March 27.

  • Du Plesis, S., and B. Smit. 2004. “Reconsidering the Business Cycle and Stabilization Policies in South Africa.” Paper presented at the Ninth Annual Conference on Econometric Modelling for Africa, June 30–July 2.

  • Durdu, C. B., and S. Sayan. 2010. “Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations.” IMF Staff Papers 57 (2): 303–25.

  • Durdu, C. B., E. G. Mendoza, and M. E. Terrones. 2009. “Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism.” Journal of Development Economics 89 (2): 194–209.

  • Eckstein, O., and A. Sinai. 1986. “The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era,” in The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, edited by R. Gordon. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • The Economist. 1971. “When the Dollar Was Devalued.” August 21.

  • ———. 1973. “What’s the German for Stagflation?” November 10.

  • ———. 1974a. “When the Balloon Goes Up.” December 21.

  • ———. 1974b. “Who will survive the slump?” December 28.

  • ———. 1974c. “A Cold, Dark, Three-Day Week.” January 5.

  • ———. 1974d. “Oil Unblocked.” March 23, 50.

  • ———. 1975a. “Beware the Coming Boom.” April 12.

  • ———. 1975b. “A World of Slow Growth.” July 26.

  • ———. 1975c. “Summit in a Slump.” November 15.

  • ———. 1978a. “Iran’s Oil Strike: Time for a Little Studied Western Calm.” November 4.

  • ———. 1978b. “Where Is the Oil to Replace Iran’s?” November 11.

  • ———. 1979a. “Hello Freedom, If That’s What You Are.” January 20.

  • ———. 1979b. “What to do about Oil Prices?” May 26.

  • ———. 1979c. “Dollar Surgery.” October 13.

  • ———. 1980a. “The Price of War.” November 15.

  • ———. 1980b. “Face the Worst.” July 12.

  • ———. 1981a. “1931 and 1981.” September 5.

  • ———. 1981b. “Summer Slump and Less Inflation Won’t Bring Easier Money.” July 11.

  • ———. 1982a. “Recyclers’ Recession.” August 7.

  • ———. 1982b. “Recession as Usual.” August 21.

  • ———. 1983. “Helmut Schmidt’s Prescription: The World Economy at Stake,” February 26.

  • ———. 1989. “The Business Cycle Gets a Puncture.” August 5.

  • ———. 1990. “All Fall Down.” September 22.

  • ———. 1991. “Economics Focus—After the Recession.” March 16.

  • ———. 1992a. “What Recession?” June 20.

  • ———. 1992b. “Recession or Doom?” October 24.

  • ———. 1998. “Puncture Ahead.” December 3.

  • ———. 1999. “Depressing Jargon.” January 21.

  • ———. 2001a. “A Global Game of Dominoes.” August 23.

  • ———. 2001b. “Going Downhill.” September 27.

  • ———. 2002. “After the Bubbles: Brace Yourself for a Bumpier Time Ahead.” September 26.

  • ———. 2008a. “The Global Slumpometer.” November 6.

  • ———. 2008b. “Diagnosing Depression.” December 30.

  • ———. 2010. “The Volcker Recession: Who Beat Inflation?” March 31.

  • ———. 2014. “Why Is Stagnation Bubbly?” January 6.

  • ———. 2015. “Watch Out” June 13.

  • Edwards, S. 1995. Crisis and Reform in Latin America:From Despair to Hope. New York: Oxford University Press for World Bank.

  • Eggertsson, G., and N. Mehrotra. 2014. “A Model of Secular Stagnation.” Brown University Working Paper.

  • Eggertsson, G., and M. Woodford. 2003. “The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring): 139–211.

  • Eichengreen, B. 1996. Golden Fetters. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • ———. 2015. Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, and the Uses-and Misuses-of History, Oxford University Press.

  • Eichengreen, B., and K. H. O’Rourke. 2009. “A Tale of Two Depressions.” VoxEU, September 1.

  • Eicher, T. S., S. F. Schubert, and S. J. Turnovsky. 2008. “Dynamic Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Impact on Debt and Growth.” Journal of International Money and Finance 27 (6): 876–96.

  • El-Erian, M. A. 2009. “A New Normal.” Economic Outlook (May), pimco.com.

  • ———. 2011. “Secular Outlook: Navigating the Multi-Speed World.” Economic Outlook (May), pimco.com.

  • ———. 2015. “The Messy Politics of Economic Divergence,” Project Syndicate, March.

  • Elsby, M. W. L., B. Hobijn, and A. Sahin. 2010. “The Labor Market in the Great Recession.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 41: 1–69.

  • ———, and R. G. Valletta. 2011. “The Labor Market in the Great Recession—An Update to September 2011.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall): 353–84.

  • English, W. B., J. D. Lopez-Salido, and R. J. Tetlow. 2013. “The Federal Reserve’s Framework for Monetary Policy––Recent Changes and New Questions.” Paper Presented at the 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, November 7–8, Washington.

  • European Central Bank. 1998. “Euro Central Rates and Intervention Rates in ERM II.” Press release, December 31.

  • Faber, M. 2012. “Marc Faber: 100% Chance of Global Recession.” CNBC Interview by Lee Brodie, May 25.

  • Faruqee, H., and K. Srinivasan. 2012. “The G-20 Mutual Assessment Process—A Perspective from IMF Staff.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 28 (3): 493–511.

  • Fatas, A., and I. Mihov. 2013. “Recoveries.” INSEAD Working Paper.

  • Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). 1997. “The LDC Debt Crisis,” Chapter 5 in History of Eighties—Lessons for the Future, Vol. 1: An Examination of the Banking Crises of the 1980s and Early 1990s.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. 2002. Rethinking Stabilization Policy. Symposium Publication, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 2008. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee.” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 29–30.

  • ———. 2009. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 23–24.

  • ———. 2010. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 21.

  • ———. 2013. “Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 17-18. Feldstein, M. 2010 “Why Has America’s Economic Recovery Stalled?” Project Syndicate, October 25.

  • ———. 2013. “The Taper Chase.” Project Syndicate, September 30.

  • Ferguson, R. W. 2005 “Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Asset-Price Movements: What Do We Know?” Speech given at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, California.

  • Fernald, J. 2014. “Productivity and Potential Output Before, During, and After the Great Recession,” NBER Working Paper, No. 20248.

  • Fidrmuc, J., and I. Korhonen. 2010. “The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Business Cycles in Asian Emerging Economies.” Journal of Asian Economics 21 (3): 293–303.

  • Fisher, I. 1933. “The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions.” Econometrica 1: 337–57.

  • Fischer, S. 1998. “Lessons from a Crisis.” Economist, October 3.

  • ———. 2014. “The Great Recession: Moving Ahead,” August 11, speech at a conference sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance, Stockholm, Sweden.

  • ———. 2015. “Conducting Monetary Policy with a Large Balance Sheet,” speech given on February 27.

  • ———, R. Sahay, and C. Végh. 1996. “Stabilization and Growth in Transition Economies: The Early Experience.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 10 (2): 45–66.

  • Forbes, K. 2013. “The ‘Big C’: Identifying and Mitigating Contagion.” The Changing Policy Landscape 2012. Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 23–87.

  • ———, and R. Rigobon. 2002. “No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements.” Journal of Finance 152: 2223–61.

  • Forbes, K. J., and F. E. Warnock. 2012. “Capital Flows Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment.” Journal of International Economics 88 (2): 235–51.

  • Foster, L., C. Grim, and J. Haltiwanger,. 2014. “Reallocation in the Great Recession: Cleansing or Not?” NBER Working Paper, No. 20427.

  • Frankel, J. 2011. “Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?” Open Economies Review 22 (1): 1–16.

  • ———. 2013. “Monetary Alchemy, Fiscal Science.” Project Syndicate, January 26.

  • ———, and A. Rose. 1998. “The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria.” Economic Journal 108 (149): 1009–25.

  • Frankel, J. A., and N. Roubini. 2001. “The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises.” NBER Working Paper 8634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Freedman, C., M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, and J. Lee. 2009. “The Case for Global Fiscal Stimulus.” IMF Staff Position Paper 09/04, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Freund, C. 2009. “The Trade Response to Global Downturns: Historical Evidence.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5015, World Bank, Washington.

  • Friedman, M. 1964. “The Monetary Studies of the National Bureau.” The National Bureau Enters Its 45th Year, 44th Annual Report, 7–25.

  • ———. 1993. “The ‘Plucking Model’ of Business Fluctuations Revisited.” Economic Inquiry 31 (2): 171–78.

  • Fuerbringer, J. 1991. “Why a U.S. Recession Still Matters.” New York Times, January 6.

  • Furceri, D., and A. Zdzienicka. 2012. “How Costly Are Debt Crises?” Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (4): 726–42.

  • Furman, J. 2014. “The Fifth Anniversary of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.” Council of Economic Advisers, February 17.

  • Gagnon, J., M. Raskin, J. Remache, and B. Sack. 2011. “Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?” FRBNY Economic Policy Review (May): 41–59.

  • Gagnon, J., and B. Sack. 2014. “Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Federal Reserve.” Policy Brief, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington.

  • Garcia, R., and H. Schaller. 2002. “Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?” Economic Inquiry 40 (1): 102–19.

  • Geithner, T. F. 2014. Stress Test: Reflections on Financial Crises. New York: Crown.

  • Gerlach, H. M. S. 1988. “World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 20 (4): 621–32.

  • Gertler, M. 1988. “Financial Structure and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Overview.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 20 (3): 559–88.

  • ———, and N. Kiyotaki. 2010. “Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis,” in Handbook of Monetary Economics, edited by B. Friedman and M. Woodford. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

  • Giannone, D., M. Lenza, and L. Reichlin. 2011. “Market Freedom and the Global Recession.” IMF Economic Review 59: 111–35.

  • Gilchrist, S., J. Sim, and E. Zakrajsek. 2010. “Uncertainty, Financial Frictions, and Investment Dynamics.” 2010 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.

  • Giuliano, P., and A. Spilimbergo. 2009. “Growing Up in a Recession: Beliefs and the Macroeconomy.” NBER Working Paper 15321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Golden, S. 1975. “Is It a Depression—Or Just a Bad Recession.” New York Times, March 9.

  • Goldstein, M. 2008. “Bear Stearns’ Big Bailout.” Bloomberg Businessweek, March 14.

  • Goldstein, M., and M. S. Khan. 1982. Effects of Slowdown in Industrial Countries on Growth in Non-oil Developing Countries. Washington: International Monetary Fund.

  • Gomes, S., P. Jacquinot, R. Mestre, and J. Sousa, 2015. “Global Policy at the Zero Lower Bound In a Large-scale DSGE Model,” Journal of International Money and Finance 50: 134–53.

  • Goodfriend, M., and R. G. King. 2005. “The Incredible Volcker Disinflation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5): 981–1015.

  • Goodley, S. 2012. “How Black Monday Sowed the Seeds for the Current Financial Crisis.” Guardian, October 13.

  • Goodman, P. S. 2008. “U.S. and Global Economies Slipping in Unison.” New York Times, August 23.

  • Gordon, R. A. 1970. “How Obsolete Is the Business Cycle?” National Affairs 21: 127–39.

  • Gordon, R. J. 2009. “Is Modern Macro or 1978-era Macro More Relevant to the Understanding of the Current Economic Crisis?” Working Paper, Northwestern University.

  • ———. 2012. “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds.” NBER Working Paper 18315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2014. “The Demise of U.S. Economic Growth: Restatement, Rebuttal, and Reflections.” NBER Working Paper 19895, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Gorton, G. 2012. Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • Gourinchas, P. 2012. “Global Imbalances and Global Liquidity,” in Asia’s Role in the Post Crisis Global Economy, edited by M. Spiegel and R. Glick, 305–40.

  • ———, and M. A. Kose. 2010. “Economic Linkages, Spillovers, and the Financial Crisis-1.” IMF Economic Review 58: 209–13.

  • ———. 2011. “Economic Linkages, Spillovers, and the Financial Crisis-2.” IMF Economic Review 59: 1–5.

  • ———. 2013a. “Labor Markets through the Lens of the Great Recession—1.” IMF Economic Review 61 (3): 405–9.

  • ———. 2013b. “Labor Markets through the Lens of the Great Recession—2.” IMF Economic Review 61 (4): 561–65.

  • Gourinchas P., and M. A. Kose, 2014. “Crises: Yesterday and Today—1,” IMF Economic Review 62(4): 465-469.

  • ———. 2015. “Crises: Yesterday and Today—2,” IMF Economic Review 63(1):1–5.

  • Gourinchas, P., and M. Obstfeld. 2012. “Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 4 (1): 226–65.

  • Gourinchas, P., and H. Rey. 2014. “External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects.” forthcoming in Handbook of International Economics.

  • Greenspan, A. 2013. “Uncertainty Unbundled: The Metrics of Activism,” in Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, edited by L. E. Ohanian, J. B. Taylor, and I. J. Wright. Stanford, California: Hoover Institution Press.

  • Gregory, A. W., and A. C. Head. 1999. “Common and Country-Specific Fluctuations in Productivity, Investment, and the Current Account.” Journal of Monetary Economics 44 (3): 423–51.

  • Gregory, A. W., and J. Raynauld. 1997. “Measuring World Business Cycles.” International Economic Review 38 (3): 677–701.

  • Gross, W. H. 2009 “On the ‘Course’ to a New Normal.” Investment Outlook (September), pimco.com.

  • Guajardo, J., D. Leigh, and A. Pescatori. 2011. “Expansionary Austerity: New International Evidence.” IMF Working Paper 11/158, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Guardian. 1973. “OPEC Oil Embargo Leads to Global Fuel Crisis,” November 13.

  • Hall, R. E. 1993. “Macro Theory and the Recession of 1990–1991.” American Economic Review 83 (2): 275–79.

  • Hall, V., and J. McDermott. 2007. “Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do They Exist? What Might Drive Them?” Papers in Regional Science 86 (2): 167–91.

  • Haltmaier, J. 2012 “Do Recessions Affect Potential Output?” International Finance Discussion Papers 1066, Federal Reserve Board.

  • Hamilton, J. D. 1989. “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.” Econometrica 57 (2): 357–84.

  • ———. 2003. “Comment on ‘A Comparison of Two Business Cycle Dating Methods.’” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27 (9): 1691–93.

  • ———. 2009a. “Oil Prices and the Economic Recession of 2007–08.” VoxEU, June 16.

  • ———. 2009b. “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007–08,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 40: 215–83.

  • ———. 2011. “Historical Oil Shocks.” Unpublished, University of California, San Diego.

  • ———, E. S. Harris, J. Hatzius, and K. D. West. 2015. “The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future,” University of Chicago, Working Paper.

  • Hansen, A. 1939. “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth.”American Economic Review 29 (1): 1–15.

  • Hansen, G. D., and E. C. Prescott. 1993. “Did Technology Shocks Cause the 1990–1991 Recession?” American Economic Review 83 (2): 280–86.

  • Harding, D., and A. Pagan. 2002. “Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation.” Journal of Monetary Economics 49: 365–81.

  • Harding, R. 2014. “Yellen Says Emerging Market Turmoil Will Not Sway the Fed.” Financial Times, February 11.

  • Hassett, K., and G. Hubbard. 2012. “Obama Inconsistent on Pace of Economic Recovery.” Washington Post, August, 15.

  • He, D., and W. Liao. 2012. “Asian Business Cycle Synchronization.” Pacific Economic Review 17 (1): 105–35.

  • Helbling, T. 2009. “How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression?” VoxEU, April 29.

  • Helbling, T., P. Berezin, M. A. Kose, M. Kumhof, D. Laxton, and N.Spatafora. 2007. “Decoupling the Train? Spillovers and Cycles in the Global Economy,” in World Economic Outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, April: 121–60.

  • Helbling, T., and M. E. Terrones. 2004. “Asset Price Booms and Busts—Stylized Facts from the Last Three Decades of the 20th Century.” Unpublished, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Helbling, T., R. Huidrom, M. A. Kose, and C. Otrok. 2011. “Do Credit Shocks Matter? A Global Perspective.” European Economic Review 55: 340–53.

  • Henn, C., and B. McDonald. 2011. “Protectionist Responses to the Crisis: Damage Observed in Product-Level Trade.” IMF Working Paper 11/139, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Herndon, T., M. Ash, and R. Pollin. 2013. “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff.” Working Paper, University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

  • Higgins, B. 1993. “Was the ERM Crisis Inevitable?” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review 78 (4): 27–40.

  • Hirata, H., M. A. Kose, and C. Otrok. 2013. “Globalization vs. Regionalization,” IMF Working Paper 13/19, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———, and M. E. Terrones. 2012. “Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants,” in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012.

  • Hoffmaister, A., M. Pradhan, and H. Samiei. 1998. “Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?” World Development 26 (5): 791–808.

  • Hoshi, T., and A. K. Kashyap. 2013. “Will the US and Europe Avoid a Lost Decade? Lessons from Japan’s Post Crisis Experience.” Paper presented at the 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, November 7–8, Washington.

  • Howard, G., R. Martin, and B. A. Wilson. 2011. “Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different?” International Finance Discussion Paper 1037, Federal Reserve Board, Washington.

  • Hutchens, G., and P. Martin. 2014. “OECD Warns of New Era of Low Economic Growth Globally.” Sydney Morning Herald, February 22.

  • Iacoviello, M. 2005. “House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle.” American Economic Review 95 (3): 739–64.

  • Imbs, J. 2004. “Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization.” Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (3): 723–34.

  • ———. 2006. “The Real Effects of Financial Integration.” Journal of International Economics 68 (2): 296–324.

  • ———. 2010. “The First Global Recession in Decades.” IMF Economic Review 58 (2): 327–54.

  • Independent Evaluation Office of the International Monetary Fund. 2012. “International Reserves: IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives.” Evaluation Report, Washington.

  • International Labour Organization (ILO). 2013. Global Employment Trends 2013. Geneva.

  • ———. 2014. Global Employment Trends 2014. Geneva.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1998a. “Financial Crises: Causes and Indicators.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, May.

  • ———. 1998b. “Financial Turbulence and the World Economy.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2000. “Transition Economies: An IMF Perspective on Progress and Prospects.” Brief Note 00/08, Washington.

  • ———. 2001a. “Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, May.

  • ———. 2001b. “The Information Technology Revolution.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2001c. “The Global Economy after September 11,” World Economic Outlook Update Washington, December.

  • ———. 2001d. “How Do Fluctuations in the G-7 Countries Affect Developing Countries?” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2008. “Housing and Business Cycle.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, April.

  • ———. 2009a. “What’s the Damage? Medium-Term Output Dynamics after Financial Crises.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2009b. “Executive Summary.” Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia. Washington, May.

  • ———. 2010a. “A Policy-Driven, Multispeed Recovery.” World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, January.

  • ———. 2010b. “Executive Summary.” Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2010c. “Executive Summary.” Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere. Washington, May.

  • ———. 2011a. “Global Recovery Advances but Remains Uneven.” World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, January.

  • ———. 2011b. “IMF Welcomes Agreement to Tackle Eurozone Crisis.” IMF Survey online, July 22.

  • ———. 2012a. “Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify.” World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, January.

  • ———. 2012b. “Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2013a. “Gradual Upturn in Global Growth during 2013.” World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, January.

  • ———. 2013b. “Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Adjustment in an Uncertain World.” World Economic and Financial Surveys. Washington, April.

  • ———. 2013c. “Unconventional Monetary Policies—Recent Experience and Prospects.” Policy Paper, Washington, April.

  • ———. 2013. “Transitions and Tensions,” World Economic Outlook. Washington, October.

  • ———. 2014a. “Is the Tide Rising?” World Economic Outlook Update. Washington, January.

  • ———. 2014b. “Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven.” World Economic Outlook. Washington, April.

  • ———. 2014c. “Public Expenditures Reform: Making Difficult Choices.” Fiscal Monitor. Washington, April.

  • ———. 2015a. “Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors,” World Economic Outlook, April, Chapter 1, 1–42.

  • ———. 2015b. “Slower Growth in Emerging Markets, a Gradual Pickup in Advanced Economies” World Economic Outlook Update, July 2015.

  • ———. 2015c. “Where are we Headed? Perspectives on Potential Output,” World Economic Outlook, April, Chapter 3, 69–110.

  • Jansen, W. J., and A. C. J. Stokman. 2004. “Foreign Direct Investment and International Business Cycle Comovement.” ECB Working Paper 401, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.

  • Jeanne, O. 2007. “International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 38: 1–80.

  • ———. 2014. “Macroprudential Policies in a Global Perspective.” IMES Discussion Paper 2014-E-1.Journal of Commerce. 1998. “Global Recession?” (September 2): 6A.

  • Joyce M., A. Lasaosa, I. Stevens, and M. Tong. 2010. “The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing.” Bank of England Working Paper, London.

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, S., E. Papaioannou, and J. L. Peydró. 2013. “Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization and the Synchronization of Economic Activity.” Journal of Finance 68: 1179–228.

  • Kamin, S. B., and L. P. DeMarco. 2012. “How Did a Domestic Slump Turn into a Global Financial Crisis?” Journal of International Money and Finance 31: 10–41.

  • Kaminsky, G. L., C. M. Reinhart, and C. A. Végh. 2005. “When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,” in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004 Vol. 19. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 11–82.

  • Kanaya, A., and D. Woo. 2000. “The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990s: Sources and Lessons.” IMF Working Paper 00/7, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Kannan, P. 2012. “Credit Conditions and Recoveries from Financial Crises.” Journal of International Money and Finance 31 (5): 930–47.

  • Karnitschnig, M., D. Solomon, L. Pleven, and J. E. Hilsenrath. 2008. “U.S. to Take over AIG in $85 Billion Bailout; Central Banks Inject Cash as Credit Dries Up.” Wall Street Journal, September 16.

  • Karras, G. 1996. “Why Are the Effects of Money-Supply Shocks Asymmetric? Convex Aggregate Supply or ‘Pushing on a String’?” Journal of Macroeconomics 18 (4): 605–19.

  • Katz, L. F., K. Kroft, F. Lange, and M. Notowidigdo. 2014. “Addressing long-term Unemployment in the Aftermath of the Great Recession,” VoxEU, December 3.

  • Kenen, P. B. 1983. “The Costly Blunders of Central Bankers.” New York Times.

  • Keynes, J. M. [1936] 1973. “The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.” The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Vol. VII, edited by D. E. Moggridge. London: Macmillan.

  • Kiley, M. T. 2013. “The Response of Equity Prices to Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates Associated with Monetary Policy Statements: Before and after the Zero Lower Bound.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013–15, Federal Reserve Board, Washington.

  • Kim, S. 2001. “International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from VAR’s.” Journal of Monetary Economics 48 (2): 339–72.

  • King, S. D. 2010. Losing Control: The Emerging Threats to Western Prosperity. New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press.

  • Kishor, N. K. 2007. “Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So, Why?” The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 35 (4): 427–48.

  • Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore. 1997. “Credit Cycles.” Journal of Political Economy105: 211–48.

  • Knoop, T. A. 2004. Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles. Westport, Connecticut: Praeger.

  • Kocherlakota, N. 2010. “Modern Macroeconomic Models as Tools for Economic Policy.” The Region, Banking and Policy Issues Magazine of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (May 4): 5–21.

  • Kollmann, R., W. Roeger, and J. Veld. 2012. “Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures.” American Economic Review 102 (3): 77–81.

  • Kose, M. A. 2002. “Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How Much Do World Prices Matter?” Journal of International Economics 56 (2): 299–327.

  • Kose, M. A., and E. Prasad. 2010. Emerging Markets: Resilience and Growth Amid Global Turmoil. Washington: Brookings Institution Press.

  • Kose, M. A. and E. O. Ozturk, 2014. “A World of Change: Taking Stock of the Past Half Century,” Finance and Development, September, 6–11.

  • ———. 2015. “How Has the Global Economy Changed? A Summary of the Past Fifty Years,” Working Paper, World Bank.

  • Kose, M. A., and A. Rebucci. 2005. “How Might CAFTA Change Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Central America?: Lessons from NAFTA.” Journal of Asian Economics 16 (1): 77–104.

  • Kose, M. A., and R. Riezman. 2001. “Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa.” Journal of Development Economics 65 (1): 55–80.

  • Kose, M. A., and M. E. Terrones. 2012. “How Does Uncertainty Affect Economic Performance?” World Economic Outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, October.

  • ———. 2015. “Global Recessions.” Forthcoming IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Kose, M. A., and K. Yi. 2001. “International Trade and Business Cycles: Is Vertical Specialization the Missing Link?” American Economic Review 91 (2): 371–75.

  • ———. 2006. “Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” Journal of International Economics 68 (2): 267–95.

  • Kose, M. A., P. Loungani, and M. E. Terrones. 2009. “Out of the Ballpark.” Finance & Development 46: 25–28.

  • ———. 2012. “Tracking the Global Recovery.” Finance & Development 49 (2): 10–13.

  • ———. 2013a. “The Great Divergence of Policies.” World Economic Outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, April.

  • ———. 2013b. “From the Global to the National Cycle: An Intricate Liaison.” Pacific Economic Review 18 (3): 270–402.

  • Kose, M. A., G. M. Meredith, and C. M. Towe. 2005. “How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence.” Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America. Berlin: Springer), 35–81.

  • Kose, M. A., C. Otrok, and E. Prasad. 2012. “Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?” International Economic Review 53: 511–38.

  • Kose, M. A, C. Otrok, and C. H. Whiteman. 2003. “International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors.” American Economic Review93:1216–39.

  • ———. 2008. “Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles.” Journal of International Economics 75 (1): 110–30.

  • Kose, M. A., E. Prasad, K. Rogoff, and S. Wei. 2010. “Financial Globalization and Economic Policies.” Handbook of Development Economics 5 (6): 4283–359.

  • Kose, M. A., E. S. Prasad, and M. E. Terrones. 2003a. “How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?” American Economic Review 93 (2): 57–62.

  • ———. 2003b. “Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility.” IMF Staff Papers 50 (Special Issue): 119–43.

  • ———. 2005. “Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization.” IMF Staff Papers 52: 31–63.

  • ———. 2006. “How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?” Journal of International Economics 69: 176–202.

  • ———. 2009a. “Does Financial Globalization Promote Risk Sharing?” Journal of Development Economics 89 (2): 258–70.

  • ———. 2009b. “Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?” Journal of International Money and Finance 28(4): 549–738.

  • Kowsmann, P. 2011. “Portugal Bailout Plan Detailed” Wall Street Journal, May 5.

  • Krishnamurthy, A., and A. Vissing-Jorgensen. 2011. “The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall): 215–65.

  • ———. 2013. “The Ins and Outs of LSAPs.” Proceedings–Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  • Krugman, P. 1993. “Lessons from Massachusetts for EMU,” in Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union, edited by F. Torres and F. Giavazzi. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research and Cambridge University Press.

  • ———. 2008a. “Stimulus Math (Wonkish).” New York Times, November 10.

  • ———. 2008b. “Synchronized Sinking,” New York Times, August 23.

  • ———. 2009a. The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008. New York: W.W. Norton.

  • ———. 2009b. “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?” New York Times, September 2.

  • ———. 2011a. “The Lesser Depression,” New York Times, July 21.

  • ———. 2011b. “This Week Transcript: Gen. Jim Jones (Ret.).” ABC News interview, March 27.

  • ———. 2012a. “Financial Crisis Denialism.” New York Times, October 17.

  • ———. 2012b. “The ‘Uncertainty’ Scam.” New York Times, October 22.

  • ———. 2013a. “How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled.” New York Review of Books.

  • ———. 2013b. “Phony Fear Factor.” New York Times, August 8.

  • ———. 2013c. “Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers.” New York Times, November 16.

  • ———. 2014a. “The Stimulus Tragedy.” New York Times, February 21.

  • ———. 2014b. “The Inflation Obsession.” New York Times, March 2.

  • ———. 2014c. “Euphemistic at the IMF.” New York Times, April 4.

  • ———. 2014d. “Inflation Targets Reconsidered.” Draft paper for European Central Bank Sintra conference, May.

  • Kuczynski, P. 1982. “Latin American Debt.” Foreign Affairs 61(2): 344.

  • Laeven, L., and F. Valencia. 2008. “Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database.” IMF Working Paper 08/224, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———. 2011. “The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises.” IMF Working Paper 11/45, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———. 2012. “Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update.” IMF Working Paper 12/163, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———. 2013. “Systemic Banking Crises Database.” IMF Economic Review 61(2): 225–70.

  • Lagarde, C. 2011. “Global Action for Global Recovery.” Project Syndicate, September 25.

  • ———. 2014. “The Global Economy in 2014.” Speech at the National Press Club, January 15.

  • Lane, P. R. 2012. “Financial Globalization and the Crisis.” BIS Working Paper 397, Bank for International Settlements, Basel.

  • Lane, P. R., and G. M. Milesi-Ferretti. 2007. “The External Wealth of Nations MarkII: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004.” Journal of international Economics 73: 223–50.

  • ———. 2011. “The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis.” IMF Economic Review 59: 77–110.

  • ———. 2012. “External Adjustment and the Global Crisis.” Journal of International Economics 88 (2): 252–65.

  • Lang, S. 2010. “Economist Alfred Kahn, ‘Father of Airline Regulation’ and Former Presidential Adviser, Dies at 93.” Cornell Chronicle, December 27.

  • Leamer, E. E. 2007. “Housing Is the Business Cycle.” Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 149–233.

  • ———. 2008. “What’s a Recession, Anyway?” NBER Working Paper 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2009. Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories. Springer.

  • Lee, W. 2014. “Policy Uncertainty Stalls Global Investment.” Citi GPS: Global Perspectives & Solutions opinion article.

  • Levchenko, A., L. T. Lewis, and L. L. Tesar. 2010. “The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun.” IMF Economic Review 58 (2): 214–53.

  • Lewis, A. 1980. “The Slowing Down of the Engine of Growth.” American Economic Review 70 (4): 555–64.

  • Lewis, M. 2010. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. New York: W.W. Norton.

  • Lo, A. W. 2012. “Reading about the Financial Crisis: A Twenty-One-Book Review.” Journal of Economic Literature 50: 151–78.

  • Loungani, P. 2012. “Seven Questions: Unemployment through the Prism of the Great Recession.” IMF Research Bulletin 13 (1).

  • Lucas, R. E. 1975. “An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle.” Journal of Political Economy 83: 1113–44.

  • ———. 1977. “Understanding Business Cycles,” in Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, edited by K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 5. Amsterdam.

  • ———. 1995. “Monetary Neutrality.” Economic Science Prize Lecture.

  • ———. 2012. “Interview on Modern Macroeconomics.” Economic Dynamics 14 (1).

  • ———, and T. Sargent. 1978. “After Keynesian Economics, After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference volume.

  • Luce, E. 2014. “RIP Obama’s Stimulus: Funeral for a Policy Success.” Financial Times, February 23.

  • Lumsdaine, R., and E. S. Prasad. 2003. “Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach.” Economic Journal 113: 101–27.

  • Magnus, G. 2011. Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the World Economy? Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons.

  • Mandelman, F. S., and A. Zlate. 2012. “Immigration, Remittances and Business Cycles.” Journal of Monetary Economics 59 (2): 196–213.

  • Mankiw, N. G. 2007. “How to Avoid Recession? Let the Fed Work.” New York Times, December 23.

  • ———. 2009. “Are Fiscal Multipliers Now Big or Small?” Blog, March 5.

  • ———. 2012. Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers.

  • Matthews, D. 2011. “Did the Stimulus Work? A Review of the Nine Best Studies on the Subject.” Wonkblog, Washington Post, August 24.

  • McKinsey Global Institute. 2013. Financial Globalization: Retreat or Reset? Seoul.

  • Meltzer, A. 2010. A History of the Federal Reserve, Vol. 2, Book 2. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  • ———. 2012. “Federal Reserve Policy in the Great Recession.” Cato Journal 32 (2): 255–63.

  • Mendoza, E. G. 2001. “Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop.” NBER Working Paper 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2010. “Sudden Stops, Financial Crises and Leverage.” American Economic Review 100: 1941–66.

  • Mendoza, E. G., and M. E. Terrones. 2008. “An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence from Macro Aggregates and Micro Data.” IMF Working Paper 08/226, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • ———. 2012. “An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise.” NBER Working Paper 18379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Mian, A., and A. Sufi. 2012. “What Explains High Unemployment: The Aggregate Demand Channel.” Unpublished, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University.

  • ———. 2014. House of Debt. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., and C. Tille. 2011. “The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis.” Economic Policy 26: 285–342.

  • Miller, P. J. 1994. The Rational Expectations Revolution. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

  • Mishkin, F. 2009. “Is Monetary Policy Effective During Financial Crises?” American Economic Review 99 (2): 573–77.

  • Mitchell, W. C. 1927. “The Processes Involved in Business Cycles.” Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, Chapter 1, 1–60.

  • Mitchener, B. 1992. “EC Devalues the Lira by 7%; Bundesbank to Lower Rates.” New York Times, September 14.

  • Mokyr, J. 2014. “Secular Stagnation? Not In Your Life,” in Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin, pp. 83–90, CEPR Press.

  • Mollenkamp, C., S. Craig, S. Ng, and A. Lucchetti. 2008. “Lehman Files for Bankruptcy; Merrill Is Sold, AIG Seeks Cash.” Wall Street Journal, September 16.

  • Moneta, F., and R. Rüffer. 2009. “Business Cycle Synchronisation in East Asia.” Journal of Asian Economics 20: 1–12.

  • Mullaney, T. E. 1977. “A Slow World Recovery.” New York Times, June 19.

  • Mulligan, C. 2012. The Redistribution Recession: How Labor Market Distortions Contracted the Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

  • Mumtaz, H., S. Simonelli, and S. Surico. 2011. “International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: A Historical Perspective.” Review of Economic Dynamics 14 (1): 176–98.

  • Mussa, M. 2009. “World Recession and Recovery: A V or an L?” Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper, Washington.

  • National Association for Business Economics. 2014. “Economists Align on Monetary Policy but not on Fiscal Issues.”

  • NBER Business-Cycle Dating Committee. 2003. “The NBER’s Business-Cycle Dating Procedure.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2010. “US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2011. “Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2013. “The NBER’s Business-Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions.” National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Ncube, M., Z. Brixiova, and Q. Meng. 2014. “Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?” African Development Bank Group Working Paper 198.

  • Neumeyer, P. A., and F. Perri. 2005. “Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates.” Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (2): 345–80.

  • New York Times. 1987. “Arthur F. Burns Is Dead at 83; A Shaper of Economic Policy.” June 27.

  • ———. 1990. “Washington Considers a Clear Iraqi Defeat To Be Necessary to Bolster Its Arab Allies.” August 22.

  • ———. 2007. “BNP Paribas Suspends Funds because of Subprime Problems.” August 9.

  • ———. 2008. “As Goldman and Morgan Shift, a Wall St. Era Ends.” September 21.

  • ———. 2009. “Deal Reached in Congress on $789 Billion Stimulus Plan.” February 11.

  • Norrbin, S. C., and D. E. Schlagenhauf. 1996. “The Role of International Factors in the Business Cycle: A Multi-Country Study.” Journal of International Economics 40 (1–2): 85–104.

  • Nossiter, B. D. 1974. “Global Headache.” Washington Post, September 22.

  • Obstfeld, M. 2012. “Financial Flows, Financial Crises, and Global Imbalances.” Journal of International Money and Finance 31: 469–80.

  • ———. 2013. “Crises and the International System.” International Economic Journal 27 (2): 143–55.

  • Obstfeld, M., and K. Rogoff. 2002. “Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (2): 503–35.

  • ———. 2010. “Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes,” in Asia and the Global Financial Crisis, edited by R. Glick and M. M. Spiegel. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 131–72.

  • Obstfeld, M., D. Cho, and A. Mason, eds. 2012. Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Transmission, and Recovery. Edward Elgar.

  • Office of the Historian. 2013. “Milestones: 1989–1992,” article published at history.state.gov /milestones/1989-1992/fall-of-communism.

  • Ohanian, L., J. Taylor, and I. J. Wright. 2012. Government Policy and the Delayed Economic Recovery. Stanford, California: Hoover Institution Press.

  • O’Neill, J. 2011. The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond. Portfolio/Penguin.

  • ———, and A. Terzi. 2014. “Changing Trade Patterns, Unchanging European and Global Governance.” Bruegel Working Paper 2014/02.

  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). 2002. Measuring the Information Economy. Paris.

  • ———. 2009. “The Jobs Crisis: What Are the Implications for Employment and Social Policy?”OECD Employment Outlook.

  • ———. 2012a. OECD Employment Outlook.

  • ———. 2012b. OECD Internet Economy Outlook.

  • ———. 2014. Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth.

  • Orlowski, L. T. 2001. Transition and Growth in Post-Communist Countries: The Ten-Year Experience. Cheltenham, United Kingdom; Edward Elgar.

  • Osborne, G. 2014. “What the Economic Pessimists Are Missing.” Wall Street Journal, April 10.

  • Otker-Robe, I., and A. M. Podpiera. 2013. “The Social Impact of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis.” Policy Research Working Paper 6703, World Bank, Washington.

  • Otto, G., G. Voss, and L. Willard. 2001. “Understanding OECD Output Correlations.” RBA Research Discussion Paper 2001–05, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney.

  • Oudiz, G., and J. Sachs. 1985. “International Policy Coordination in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models,” in International Economic Policy Coordination, edited by W. H. Buiter and R. C. Marston, 274–330.

  • Pagan, A. R., and K. A. Sossounov. 2003. “A Simple Framework for Analyzing Bull and Bear Markets.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 18 (1): 23–46.

  • Paletta, D., and M. Phillips. 2011. “S&P Strips U.S. of Top Credit Rating.” Wall Street Journal, August 6.

  • Panizza, U., and F. Presbitero. 2013. “Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey.” Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics 149 (2): 175–204.

  • Papell, D. H., and R. Prodan. 2011. “The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions.” Working Paper, University of Houston, Houston, Texas.

  • Parikh, S. H. 2013. “A Secular View of Assets: Surfing the Wedge.” PIMCO Asset Allocation Focus, June 11.

  • Paulson, H. M. 2011. On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System. New York: Business Plus.

  • Perotti, R. 2012. “The ‘Austerity Myth’: Gain without Pain?” in Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 307–54.

  • Perri, F., and V. Quadrini. 2011. “International Recessions.” NBER Working Paper 17201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Porter, E. 2013. “Economists Agree: Solutions are Elusive.” Economic Scene, New York Times, April 23.

  • Prasad, E. 2014. “The Fed Is Not to Blame for Turmoil in Emerging Markets.” Financial Times, February 12.

  • Queralto, A. 2013. “A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises.” International Finance Discussion Paper 1097, Federal Reserve Board.

  • Rabobank. 2013. “The Mexican 1982 Debt Crisis.” Economic Report.

  • Rajan, R. G. 2011. Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • ———. 2012. “The True Lessons of the Recession.” Foreign Affairs 91 (3): 69–79.

  • ———. 2014. “Competitive Monetary Easing: Is It Yesterday Once More?” Remarks at the Brookings Institution, April 10.

  • Ramey, G., and V. A. Ramey. 1995. “Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth.” American Economic Review 85 (5): 1138–51.

  • Ramey, V. A. 2011. “Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It’s All in the Timing.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (1): 1–50.

  • Ratha, D. 2005. “Remittances: A Lifeline for Development.” Finance and Development 42 (4).

  • Reifschneider, D., W. Wascher, and D. Wilcox. 2013. “Aggregate Supply in the United States; Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy.” Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series 77.

  • Reinhart, C. M., and K. S. Rogoff. 2008. “Is the 2007 U.S. Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison.” American Economic Review 98 (2): 339–44.

  • ———. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

  • ———. 2010a. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100: 573–78.

  • ———. 2010b. “Growth in a Time of Debt.” NBER Working Paper 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2011. “A Decade of Debt.” NBER Working Paper 16827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • ———. 2012a. “This Time is Different, Again? The US Five Years after the Onset of Subprime,” VoxEU, October 22.

  • ———. 2012b. “Five Years after Crisis, No Normal Recovery.” Bloomberg, April 2.

  • ———. 2012c. “Sorry, U.S. Recoveries Really Aren’t Different.” Bloomberg, October 15.

  • ———. 2014. “Recovery from the Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes.” NBER Working Paper 19823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Reinhart, C., and V. R. Reinhart. 2010. “After the Fall.” Proceedings—Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 17–60.

  • Reuters. 2010. “S&P Downgrades Greece Ratings into Junk Status.” April 27.

  • ———. 2012. “Cyprus Seeks EU Bailout for Banks Budget.” June 25.

  • Robinson, K. 2013. “Savings and Loan Crisis.” federalreservehistory.org.

  • Rodrik, D. 2012. The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy. New York: Norton.

  • ———. 2013. “The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth.” Global Citizen Foundation Working Paper 1.

  • ———. 2014. “Death by Finance.” Project Syndicate, February 10.

  • ———. 2015. “Economists vs. Economics.” Project Syndicate, September 10.

  • Rodrik, D., and A. Subramanian. 2014. “Emerging Markets’ Victimhood Narrative.” Bloomberg.com, January 31.

  • Rogoff, K. S. 2002a. “Press Conference on the World Economic Outlook.” April 18. http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm.

  • ———. 2002b. “The Recession That Almost Was.” Financial Times, April 5.

  • ———. 2008. “Inflation Is Now the Lesser Evil.” Project Syndicate, December 2.

  • ———. 2011. “The Second Great Contraction.” Project Syndicate, August 2.

  • ———. 2013. “What’s the Problem with Advanced Economies?” Project Syndicate, December 4.

  • Rogoff, K. S., D. Robinson, and T. Bayoumi. 2002. “Was It a Global Recession?” World Economic Outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, April.

  • Romer, C. 2009a. “Lessons from the Great Depression for Economic Recovery in 2009.” Presented at the Brookings Institution, Washington, March 9.

  • ———. 2009b. “The Economic Crisis: Causes, Policies, and Outlook.” Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, April 30.

  • ———. 2013. “Lessons from the Great Depression for Policy Today.” Teach-In on the Great Depression and World War II, University of Oklahoma.

  • Romer, C., and D. Romer. 2002. “The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Proceedings: 11–78.

  • ———. 2004. “A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications.” American Economic Review 94 (4): 1055–84.

  • Rose, A. K., and M. M. Spiegel. 2010. “The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure.” Pacific Economic Review 15: 340–63.

  • ———. 2011. “Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update.” European Economic Review 55 (3): 309–24.

  • Rotemberg, J. J. 2013. “Patience after Accusations of Error: 100 Years of Monetary Policy at the U.S. Federal Reserve.” Harvard Business School Working Paper, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Rothstein, J. 2012. “The Labor Market Four Years into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations.” ILR Review 65 (3): 467–500.

  • Roubini, N. 2008. “The Perfect Storm of a Global Recession.” Project Syndicate, August 13.

  • ———. 2009. “Green Shoots or Yellow Weeds.” Forbes, May 14.

  • ———. 2011. “That Stalling Feeling.” Project Syndicate, June 21.

  • Roubini, N., and S. Mihm. 2011. Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. New York: Penguin Books.

  • Rowen, H. 1974. “Experts Hedge on ’74 Outlook: Oil Crisis May Trigger Worldwide Recession.” Washington Post, January 13.

  • ———. 1989. “Warning—Global Recession Ahead.” Washington Post, April 6.

  • Sachs, J. D. 2008. “A Sustainable Recovery.” Project Syndicate, November 30.

  • ———. 2009. “The Economic Need for Stable Policies, Not a Stimulus.” Scientific American, February 16.

  • ———. 2015. “Paul Krugman and the Obama Recovery,” Project Syndicate, January 5.

  • Sahadi, J. 2008. “Bailout is Law.” CNN Money, October 3.

  • Samuelson, R. J. 2012. “Why the Recovery Is Feeble,” Washington Post, November 25.

  • ———. 2013. “Times Have Changed, and Our Economic Vocabulary Can’t Keep Up.” Washington Post, December.

  • ———. 2014. “The Recovery: DéjÀ Vu All Over?” Washington Post, February 26.

  • Sargent, T. J. 2002. “Commentary: The Evolution of Economic Understanding and Postwar Stabilization Policy.” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Proceedings 2002: 79–94.

  • ———, and N. Wallace. 1975. “‘Rational’ Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule.” Journal of Political Economy 83 (2): 241–54.

  • Sensier, M., D. R. Osborn, and N. Ocal. 2002. “Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Economy.” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 64 (4): 315–39.

  • Shabecoff, P. 1975. “The Question in Capital: Recession or Depression?” New York Times, March 7.

  • Sharma, R. 2012. Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles. New York: Norton.

  • Sharma, R. 2015. A Global Recession May Be Brewing in China. Wall Street Journal, August 16.

  • Shiller, R. J. 2009. “The Ghost in the Recovery Machine.” Project Syndicate, November 13.

  • Shin, H. S. 2009. “Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (1): 101–19.

  • Sichel, D. E. 1994. “Inventories and the Three Phases of the Business Cycle.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 12 (3): 269–77.

  • Sidel, R., D. Enrich, and D. Fitzpatrick. 2008. “WaMu Is Seized, Sold Off to J.P. Morgan, in Largest Failure in U.S. Banking History.” Wall Street Journal, September 26.

  • Sims, J. 2013. “Latin American Debt Crisis of the 1980s.” federalreservehistory.org.

  • Sinai, A. 1992 “Financial and Real Business Cycles.” Eastern Economic Journal 18 (1): 1–54.

  • ———. 2010. “The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating.” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100: 25–29.

  • Solomou, S. 1998. Economic Cycles since 1870: Long Cycles and Business Cycles since 1870. Manchester University Press.

  • Sommerville, G. 2008. “U.S. Seizes Fannie, Freddie, Aims to Calm Markets.” Reuters, September 7.

  • Sorkin, A. S. 2011. Too Big to Fail: The Inside Story of How Wall Street and Washington Fought to Save the Financial System and Themselves. New York: Penguin Group.

  • Spence, M. 2011. The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World. New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux.

  • ———. 2014. “Overshooting in Emerging Markets.” Project Syndicate, February 20.

  • Spilimbergo A., S. Symansky, O. Blanchard, and C. Cottarelli. 2008. “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis.” IMF Staff Position Note 08/01, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

  • Stein, J. C. 2013. “Yield-Oriented Investors and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism.” Remarks presented at Banking, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy Symposium Sponsored by the Center for Financial Studies in Honor of Raghuram Rajan, September 26.

  • Stiglitz, J. E. 2009. “Developing Countries and the Global Crisis.” Project Syndicate, April 6.

  • Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson. 2005. “Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics.” Journal of the European Economic Association 3 (5): 968–1006.

  • ———. 2012. “Disentangling the Channels of the 2007–09 Recession.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring): 81–156.

  • Stone, C. 2013. “Testimony of Chad Stone,” Speech delivered at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, September 24.

  • Summers, L. 2009. “Remarks of L. H. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council Responding to an Historic Economic Crisis: The Obama Program.” Brookings Institution, March 13.

  • ———. 2013. “Why Stagnation Might Prove to be the New Normal.” Financial Times¸ December 15.

  • ———. 2014. “What the World Must Do to Kickstart Growth.” Financial Times, April 6.

  • Swagel, P. 2009. “The Financial Crisis: An Inside View,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 40 (1): 1–78.

  • ———. 2013. “Financial Crisis Reading List.” New York Times, July 15.

  • Swanson, E., and J. C. Williams. 2013. “Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates.” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

  • Tapsoba, S. J. A. 2009. “Trade Intensity and Business Synchronicity in Africa.” Journal of African Economics 18 (2): 287–318.

  • Taylor, J. B. 2012. “An Unusually Weak Recovery as Usually Defined.” Economics One (blog), October 26.

  • ———. 2013a. “International Monetary Policy Coordination: Past, Present, and Future.” BIS Working Paper 437, Bank for International Settlements, Basel.

  • ———. 2013b. “With Better Policy, the Recovery Could Have Been V-Shaped.” Economics One (blog), September 16.

  • ———. 2013c. “Causes of the Financial Crisis and the Slow Recovery: A 10-Year Perspective.” SIPR Discussion Paper 13-026.

  • ———. 2014a. “The Role of Policy in the Great Recession and the Weak Recovery.” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 104 (5): 61–66.

  • ———. 2014b. “The Economic Hokum of ‘Secular Stagnation’,” Wall Street Journal, January 1.

  • Temin, P. 1976. Did Monetary Factors Cause the Great Depression? New York: Norton.

  • ———. 1991. Lessons from the Great Depression. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

  • Terrones, M. E., A. Scott, and P. Kannan. 2009. “From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?” World Economic Outlook. Washington: International Monetary Fund, April.

  • Time Magazine. 1978. “Business: Yes, We Have No Bananas,” December 11.

  • Totaro, L., and E. Ross-Thomas. 2011. “Italy, Spain Ratings Cut by Fitch; Belgium Is Put Under Review by Moody’s.” Bloomberg, October 7.

  • Turner, A. 2012. Economics after the Crisis: Objectives and Means. Lionel Robbins Lectures. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

  • Tylecote, A. 1992. “Why World Recession Has a Long Time to Run.” Guardian, September 12.

  • Uchitelle, L. 1991. “Plea by U.S. on Rate Cut Is Rejected.” New York Times, April 29.

  • United Nations. 1990. “United Nations Iraq-Kuwait Observation Mission.” Resolution 678.

  • USA Today. 1996. “1991 Gulf War Chronology.” September 3.

  • U.S. Department of the Treasury. 2013. “The Financial Crisis Five Years Later: Response, Reform, and Progress.” Treasury Note, Washington.

  • van Dijk, M. 2013. “The Social Costs of Financial Crises.” Working Paper, Erasmus University, Rotterdam.

  • Végh, C. A., and G. Vuletin. 2013. “The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America.” Paper presented at the 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, November 7–8, Washington.

  • Voice of America. 2009. “Study: 2009 Likely to See Weakest Global Economy in Half-Century.” November 1.

  • Volcker, P. A. 1978. Rediscovery of the Business Cycle. The Free Press.

  • Walker, A. 2009. “What Is a Global Recession?” BBC News, February 10.

  • Wallop, H. 2007. “Northern Rock Shares Crash as Customers Queue” Telegraph, September 14.

  • Walsh, C. E. 1993. “What Caused the 1990–1991 Recession?” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review 2: 33–48.

  • Washington Post. 1994. “After the Worldwide Recession.” Editorial, December 22.

  • Wearden, G. 2008. “British Government Unveils £37bn Banking Bail-out Plan.” Guardian, October 13.

  • Weber, S. 1997. “The End of the Business Cycle?” Foreign Affairs 76 (4): 65–82.

  • Werning, I. 2012. “Managing a Liquidity Trap: Monetary and Fiscal Policy.” Unpublished, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

  • Wessel, D. 2010. In FED We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. New York: Crown Publishers.

  • Wilkinson, M. 1982. “Prospects for Global Economic Revival Are Worsening.” Financial Times, September 13.

  • Williamson, J. 2005. “The Potential of International Policy Coordination.” Peterson Institute for International Economics.

  • Williamson, S. 2013. “The Balance Sheet and the Fed’s Future.” New Monetarist Economics (blog), March 10.

  • Wolf, M. 2009. “Why the G20 Must Focus on Sustaining Demand.” Financial Times, March 10.

  • ———. 2010a. “What We Can Learn from Japan’s Decades of Trouble.” Financial Times, January 12.

  • ———. 2010b. “What the World Must Do to Sustain Its Convalescence.” Financial Times, February 3.

  • ———. 2010c. “Why Plans for Early Fiscal Tightening Carry Global Risks.” Financial Times, June 17.

  • ———. 2013a. “Austerity in the Eurozone and the UK: Kill or Cure?” Financial Times, May 23.

  • ———. 2013b. “How Austerity Has Failed.” Nybooks.com, July 11.

  • ———. 2014. “We Are Trapped in a Cycle of Credit Booms, Financial Times, October 7.

  • Woodford, M. 2010. “Financial Intermediation and Macroeconomic Analysis.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 24 (4): 21–44.

  • ———. 2012. “Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound.” 2012 Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

  • World Bank. 2010. The MDGs After the Crisis: Global Monitoring Report 2010. Washington.

  • ———. 2011. “Global Development Horizons 2011—Multipolarity: The New Global Economy.” Washington.

  • ———. 2013. “World Development Report on Jobs.” Washington.

  • Wynne, M. A. 2011. “The Sluggish Recovery from the Great Recession: Why There Is No ‘V’ Rebound This Time.” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter 6 (9): 1–4.

  • Yellen, J. 2013a. “Panel Discussion on ‘Monetary Policy: Many Targets, Many Instruments. Where Do We Stand?’” Remarks at International Monetary Fund Conference on Rethinking Macro Policy II, Washington.

  • ———. 2013b. “Challenges Confronting Monetary Policy.” Speech delivered at the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Conference.

  • Yilmaz, K. 2010. “International Business Cycle Spillovers.” CEPR Working Paper 7966, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

  • Zandi, M. 2013. “The Impact of Political Uncertainty on Jobs and the Economy.” Testimony before the U.S. Senate Budget Committee.

  • Zarnovitz, V. 1992. Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators and Forecasting. Chicago: University of Chicago press for National Bureau of Economic Research.