INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
ASIA AND PACIFIC
Navigating the Pandemic: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia
OCT 20
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
Asia and Pacific
Navigating the Pandemic: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia
OCT 20
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
©2020 International Monetary Fund
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: International Monetary Fund, publisher.
Title: Regional economic outlook update. Asia and Pacific : navigating the pandemic : a multi-speed recovery in Asia.
Other titles: Asia and Pacific : navigating the pandemic : a multispeed recovery in Asia. | World economic and financial surveys
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2020. | World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440. | Oct. 20. | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: ISBN 9781513558202 (Paper)
9781513558219 (ePub)
9781513558226 (Web PDF)
Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Asia. | Economic forecasting— Pacific Area. | Asia— Economic conditions. | Pacific Area—Economic conditions. | Economic development—Asia. | Economic development— Pacific Area.
Classification: LCC HC412.R445 2020
The Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific is published annually in the fall to review developments in the Asia Pacific region. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USA
Tel.: (202) 623–7430 Fax: (202) 623–7201
Contents
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Acknowledgments
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Definitions
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1. Overview
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2. A Multispeed Recovery in Asia
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Global Context
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Green Shoots in Asia
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Outlook and Risks: Can Asia Lead the Way Forward?
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Uncertainties, Unknowns, and Risks
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Policies: From Green Shoots to a Smart, Green, Inclusive Recovery
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3. COVID-19 Lockdowns and Exits in Asia: Some Lessons
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Lockdowns: The Importance of Acting Fast
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Exit Strategies: Timing Is Key
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Macroeconomic Policies Can Mitigate Economic Costs and Support Recovery
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Conclusions
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4. COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Risks of Social Unrest?
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Labor Market Surveys Indicate Rising Inequality
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Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?
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Pandemics and Social Unrest: When Inequality Becomes Intolerable
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Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Policies and the Way Forward
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Policy Analysis: More Targeted Measures, More Lives Saved
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References
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Box
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2.1 Exiting Lockdowns: Asia’s Reopening Experience and Some Early Lessons
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Figures
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1.1 Real GDP Growth Rates
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2.1 Cumulative Confirmed Cases, Emerging Asia
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2.2 Manufacturing and Services PMI
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2.3 Retail Sales
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2.4 Trade Exposure of REO 14
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2.1.1 Lockdown Stringency and Duration
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2.1.2 Reopening Timing and Lastest Infection Rates
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2.1.3 Status of Containment Measures
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2.1.4 Change in Manufacturing PMI
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3.1 Impact of Containment Measures
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3.2 Early Intervention Is Paramount
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3.3 Results from an Extended Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, or Removed Macro Model
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3.4 Easing of Containment Measures Has Asymmetric Effects, Depending on the Strength of Testing and Tracing Policies
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3.5 The Importance of Getting the Timing Right
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3.6 Policies Can Cushion Economic Impact of Containment Measures
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4.1 Selected Economies in Asia: Non-Teleworkable Sectors, Gender Gap, and Youth Unemployment
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4.2 Pandemics, Automation, and Inequality
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4.3 Pandemics, Inequality, and Social Unrest
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4.4 Asia’s Policy Responses
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4.5 Targeted versus Untargeted Fiscal Support
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Table
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2.1 Asia: Real GDP
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Acknowledgments
This Regional Economic Outlook was prepared by a team led by Alison Stuart and Davide Furceri, under the overall direction of Changyong Rhee and Jonathan D. Ostry. The main authors are Angana Banerji, Pragyan Deb, Tahsin Saadi Sedik, Anthony Chia Kiat Tan, Nour Tawk, and Irina Yakadina. Stephen Chukwumah, Medha Madhu Nair, Mariam Souleyman, Naihan Yang, and Qianqian Zhang assisted in preparing the report. Cheryl Toksoz of the IMF’s Communications Department edited the volume and coordinated its publication and release. Contributors to Box 2.1 are Siddharth Kothari, Shihui Liu, Longmei Zhang, and Chenqi Zhou. The report is based on data available as of September 30, 2020, and includes comments from other IMF departments and Executive Directors.
Chapters 3 and 4 draw on two papers (IMF), available online at http://www.imf.org. Chapter 3 was prepared by a staff team led by Pragyan Deb and Nour Tawk, and comprising Nathalie Pouokam, Irina Yakadina, and Naihan Yang, under the guidance of Davide Furceri, with the supervision of Jonathan D. Ostry. Chapter 4 was prepared by a staff team led by Tahsin Saadi Sedik and comprising Emilia Magdalena Jurzyk, Medha Madhu Nair, Nathalie Pouokam, Anthony Chia Kiat Tan, Rui Xu, Irina Yakadina, and Jiae Yoo, under the guidance of Alison Stuart and Davide Furceri, with the supervision of Jonathan D. Ostry.
Definitions
In this Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, the following groupings are employed:
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“ASEAN” refers to Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao P.D.R., Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, unless otherwise specified.
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“ASEAN-5” refers to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand.
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“Advanced Asia” refers to Australia, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan, Korea, Macao Special Administrative Region, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.
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“Emerging Asia” refers to China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
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“South Asia” refers to Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.
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“Asia” refers to ASEAN, East Asia, advanced Asia, South Asia, and other Asian economies.
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“EU” refers to the European Union.
The following abbreviations are used:
| AE |
advanced economy |
| COVID-19 |
coronavirus disease |
| GDP |
gross domestic product |
| EMDE |
emerging and developing economy |
| NO2 |
nitrogen dioxide |
| OECD |
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development |
| REO |
Regional Economic Outlook |
| WEO |
World Economic Outlook |
| WHO |
World Health Organization |
The following conventions are used:.
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In figures and tables, shaded areas show IMF projections.
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“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.