Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
14 Apr 2020
Keywords:
WEO; CCDFEF; monetary policy; emerging market; economy; base year; CFA franc; debtor economy; central bank; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Consumer price indexes; Fiscal stance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; advanced economy; GDP deflator; currency unit
Download PDF (515.7 KB)

Abstract

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

The first section summarizes the assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2020–21. The second section briefly describes the changes to the database and statistical tables since the October 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third section offers a general description of the data and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The fourth section presents selected key information for each country. The fifth section summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the WEO. The sixth section provides information on methods and reporting standards for the member countries’ national account and government finance indicators included in the report.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. (Statistical Appendix A is included here; Statistical Appendix B is available online at www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO.)

Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through April 7, 2020. The figures for 2020–21 are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during February 17–March 16, 2020. For 2020 and 2021 these assumptions imply average US dollar–special drawing right (SDR) conversion rates of 1.381 and 1.388, US dollar–euro conversion rates of 1.115 and 1.126, and yen–US dollar conversion rates of 106.7 and 104.1, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $35.61 a barrel in 2020 and $37.87 a barrel in 2021.

National authorities’ established policies are assumed to be maintained. Box A1 describes the more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month US dollar deposits will average 0.7 percent in 2020 and 0.6 percent in 2021, the LIBOR on three-month euro deposits will average –0.4 percent in 2020 and 2021, and the LIBOR on six-month yen deposits will average –0.1 percent in 2020 and 2021.

As a reminder, in regard to the introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as described in Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO. See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO as well for details on how the conversion rates were established.

article image

Established on January 1, 2008.

Established on January 1, 2011.

Established on January 1, 2001.

Established on January 1, 2014.

Established on January 1, 2015.

Established on January 1, 2009.

Established on January 1, 2007.

What’s New

  • Due to the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions, the April 2020 WEO database and statistical tables contain only these indicators: real GDP growth, consumer price index, current account balance, unemployment, per capita GDP growth, and fiscal balance. Projections for these indicators are provided only through 2021.

  • The Timorese authorities have revised the compilation methodology of GDP and, under the new classification, oil and gas revenue before September 2019, which was previously classified as export in national accounts, is now classified as primary income.

  • As of February 1, 2020 the United Kingdom is no longer part of the European Union. Data for the United Kingdom are no longer included in the European Union composites.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 194 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of national statistics, including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

Most countries’ macroeconomic data as presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA). The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been or are being aligned with the SNA 2008. These standards reflect the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data; hence, the WEO estimates are only partly adapted to these manuals. Nonetheless, for many countries, conversion to the updated standards will have only a small impact on major balances and aggregates. Many other countries have partly adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a period of years.1

Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.2 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply:

Composites for data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.3 Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except in the case of emerging market and developing economies, for which the rates are based on logarithmic differences.

Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.

Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions. Unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and for the majority of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain, which report calendar-adjusted data. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.

Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.

Composite unemployment rates are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data.

Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.

For some countries, the figures for 2019 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

Country Notes

For Argentina, fiscal, external debt and financing variables are excluded from publication for 2020–21 as these are to a large extent linked to the ongoing debt restructuring. Regarding historical data, the consumer price data for Argentina before December 2013 reflect the consumer price index (CPI) for the Greater Buenos Aires Area (CPI-GBA), while from December 2013 to October 2015 the data reflect the national CPI (IPCNu). The government that took office in December 2015 discontinued the IPCNu, stating that it was flawed, and released a new CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires Area on June 15, 2016 (a new national CPI has been disseminated starting in June 2017). At its November 9, 2016, meeting, the IMF Executive Board considered the new CPI series to be in line with international standards and lifted the declaration of censure issued in 2013. Given the differences in geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and methodology of these series, the average CPI inflation for 2014, 2015, and 2016 and end-of-period inflation for 2015 and 2016 are not reported in the April 2020 WEO. Also, Argentina’s authorities discontinued the publication of labor market data in December 2015 and released new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.

For Belarus, projections are based on preliminary assumptions, which are yet to be formally agreed between Belarus and Russia, about parameters of a bilateral agreement on Belarus imports of crude oil.

The fiscal series for the Dominican Republic have the following coverage: public debt, debt service and the cyclically-adjusted/structural balances are for the consolidated public sector (which includes central government, the rest of the nonfinancial public sector, and the central bank); and the remaining fiscal series are for the central government.

The fiscal data for Ecuador reflect net lending/ borrowing for the nonfinancial public sector. Ecuadorian authorities, in the context of the Extended Fund Facility approved in March of 2019 and with technical support from IMF staff, are undertaking revisions of the historical fiscal data for the net lending/borrowing of the nonfinancial public sector, with the view of correcting recently identified statistical errors, mostly in the recording of revenues and expenditures of local governments. Fiscal data reported for 2018 and 2019 reflect the corrected series, while the data for earlier years are still under revision and will be corrected in subsequent WEO releases as the authorities proceed with the corrections in the earlier years, going as far back as 2012. The authorities are also working on reconciling historical revenue and expenditure data with financing.

India’s real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts: for 1998 to 2011, with base year 2004/05 and, thereafter, with base year 2011/12.

For Lebanon, projections for 2021 are omitted due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty.

Against the backdrop of a civil war and weak capacity, the reliability of Libya’s data, especially medium-term projections, is low.

Data for Syria are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.

Ukraine’s revised national accounts data are available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010.

Starting from October 2018 Uruguay’s public pension system has been receiving transfers in the context of a new law that compensates persons affected by the creation of the mixed pension system. These funds are recorded as revenues, consistent with the IMF’s methodology. Therefore, data and projections for 2018–22 are affected by these transfers, which amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP in 2018 and are projected to be 1.2 percent of GDP in 2019, 0.9 percent of GDP in 2020, 0.4 percent of GDP in 2021, 0.2 percent of GDP in 2022, and 0.0 percent of GDP thereafter. Please see IMF Country Report 19/64 for further details.4 The disclaimer about the public pension system applies only to the revenues and net lending/borrowing series.

The coverage of the fiscal data for Uruguay was changed from consolidated public sector to nonfinancial public sector with the October 2019 WEO. In Uruguay, nonfinancial public sector coverage includes central government, local government, social security funds, nonfinancial public corporations, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. Historical data were also revised accordingly. Under this narrower fiscal perimeter— which excludes the central bank—assets and liabilities held by the nonfinancial public sector where the counterpart is the central bank are not netted out in debt figures. In this context, capitalization bonds issued in the past by the government to the central bank are now part of the nonfinancial public sector debt. Gross and net debt estimates for 2008–11 are preliminary.

Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela, including assessing past and current economic developments as the basis for the projections, is complicated by the lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), incomplete understanding of the reported data, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government; social security; FOGADE (insurance deposit institution); and a sample of public enterprises, including Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA); and data for 2018–19 are IMF staff estimates. The effects of hyperinflation and the paucity of reported data mean that the IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with the IMF staff’s projection of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year. Wide uncertainty surrounds these projections. Venezuela’s consumer prices (CPI) are excluded from all WEO group composites.

In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the RTGS dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics. Current data are subject to revision. The Zimbabwe dollar previously ceased circulating in 2009 and, between 2009–19, Zimbabwe operated under a multi-currency regime with the US dollar as the unit of account.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.5 This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and it has evolved over time. The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method of organizing data. Table A provides an overview of the country classification, showing the number of countries in each group by region and summarizing some key indicators of their relative size (GDP valued at purchasing power parity, total exports of goods and services, and population).

Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, and the IMF therefore does not monitor their economies.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

Table B lists the 39 advanced economies. The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven. The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the WEO.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The group of emerging market and developing economies (155) includes all those that are not classified as advanced economies.

The regional breakdowns of emerging market and developing economies are emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe (sometimes also referred to as “central and eastern Europe”); Latin America and the Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia (which comprises the regional subgroups Caucasus and Central Asia; and Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa.

Emerging market and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria that reflect the composition of export earnings and a distinction between net creditor and net debtor economies. Tables D and E show the detailed composition of emerging market and developing economies in the regional and analytical groups.

The analytical criterion source of export earnings distinguishes between the categories fuel (Standard

International Trade Classification [SITC] 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into one of these groups if their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2014 and 2018.

The financial criteria focus on net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Economies are categorized as net debtors when their latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2018 were negative. Net debtor economies are further differentiated on the basis of experience with debt servicing.6

The HIPC group comprises the countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in their debt initiative known as the HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.7 Many of these countries have already benefited from debt relief and have graduated from the initiative.

The LIDCs are countries that have per capita income levels below a certain threshold (set at $2,700 in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method), structural features consistent with limited development and structural transformation, and external financial linkages insufficiently close for them to be widely seen as emerging market economies.

Table A.

Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20191

(Percent of total for group or world)

article image

The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of economies’ GDP. The number of economies comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Syria is omitted from the source of export earnings, and South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composites because of insufficient data.

Table B.

Advanced Economies by Subgroup

article image

On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On December 20, 1999, Macao was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

Table C.

European Union

article image
Table D.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings

article image
Table E.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries

article image
article image
article image
article image

Dot (star) indicates that the country is a net creditor (net debtor).

Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point, which allows it to receive the full debt relief committed to at the decision point.

South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composite for lack of a fully developed database.

Table F.

Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods1

article image

Unless noted otherwise, all data refer to calendar years.

Table G.

Key Data Documentation

article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.

CB = central bank; Customs = Customs Authority; GAD = General Administration Department; IEO = international economic organization; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NSO = National Statistics Office; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre.

National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to calculate the index.

Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.

BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; EUA = extrabudgetary units/accounts; LG = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporation; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporation; SG = state government; SS = social security fund; TG = territorial governments.

Accounting standard: A = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

Base year is not equal to 100 because the nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP or the data are seasonally adjusted.