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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
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Abstract

At a time when job creation tops the policy agenda globally, this issue of the Fiscal Monitor explores if and how fiscal policy can do more for jobs. It finds that while fiscal policy cannot substitute for comprehensive reforms, it can support job creation in a number of ways. First, deficit reduction can be designed and timed to minimize negative effects on employment. Second, fiscal policy can facilitate structural reforms in the labor market by offsetting their potential short term costs. And third, targeted fiscal measures, including labor tax cuts, can help tackle challenges in specific segments of the labor market, such as youth and older workers.

Acronyms

AE

advanced economies

CAB

cyclically adjusted balance

CAD

cyclically adjusted deficit

CAPB

cyclically adjusted primary balance

CEE

Central and Eastern Europe

EMMIEs

emerging market and middle-income economies

ESSC

employer social security contribution

EU

European Union

GDP

gross domestic product

GFSM

Government Finance Statistics Manual

LAC

Latin America and the Caribbean

LIDCS

low-income developing countries

MENA

Middle East and North Africa

MENAP

Middle East and North Africa and Pakistan

NAO

National Audit Office

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PRGT

Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust

SNA

System of National Accounts

SOE

state-owned enterprise

SSA

Sub-Saharan Africa

SSC

social security contributions

Country Abbreviations

Code

Country name

AFG

Afghanistan

AGO

Angola

ALB

Albania

ARE

United Arab Emirates

ARG

Argentina

ARM

Armenia

ATG

Antigua and Barbuda

AUS

Australia

AUT

Austria

AZE

Azerbaijan

BDI

Burundi

BEL

Belgium

BEN

Benin

BFA

Burkina Faso

BGD

Bangladesh

BGR

Bulgaria

BHR

Bahrain

BHS

Bahamas, The

BIH

Bosnia and Herzegovina

BLR

Belarus

BLZ

Belize

BOL

Bolivia

BRA

Brazil

BRB

Barbados

BRN

Brunei Darussalam

BTN

Bhutan

BWA

Botswana

CAF

Central African Republic

CAN

Canada

CHE

Switzerland

CHL

Chile

CHN

China

CIV

Côte d’Ivoire

CMR

Cameroon

COD

Congo, Democratic Republic of the

COG

Congo, Republic of

COL

Colombia

COM

Comoros

CPV

Cabo Verde

CRI

Costa Rica

CYP

Cyprus

CZE

Czech Republic

DEU

Germany

DJI

Djibouti

DMA DNK

Dominica Denmark

Code

Country name

DOM

Dominican Republic

DZA

Algeria

ECU

Ecuador

EGY

Egypt

ERI

Eritrea

ESP

Spain

EST

Estonia

ETH

Ethiopia

FIN

Finland

FJI

Fiji

FRA

France

FSM

Micronesia, Federated States of

GAB

Gabon

GBR

United Kingdom

GEO

Georgia

GHA

Ghana

GIN

Guinea

GMB

Gambia, The

GNB

Guinea-Bissau

GNQ

Equatorial Guinea

GRC

Greece

GRD

Grenada

GTM

Guatemala

GUY

Guyana

HKG

Hong Kong SAR

HND

Honduras

HRV

Croatia

HTI

Haiti

HUN

Hungary

IDN

Indonesia

IND

India

IRL

Ireland

IRN

Iran

IRQ

Iraq

ISL

Iceland

ISR

Israel

ITA

Italy

JAM

Jamaica

JOR

Jordan

JPN

Japan

KAZ

Kazakhstan

KEN

Kenya

KGZ

Kyrgyz Republic

KHM

Cambodia

KIR

Kiribati

KNA

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Code

Country name

KOR

Korea

KWT

Kuwait

LAO

Lao P.D.R.

LBN

Lebanon

LBR

Liberia

LBY

Libya

LCA

Saint Lucia

LKA

Sri Lanka

LSO

Lesotho

LTU

Lithuania

LUX

Luxembourg

LVA

Latvia

MAR

Morocco

MDA

Moldova

MDG

Madagascar

MDV

Maldives

MEX

Mexico

MHL

Marshall Islands

MKD

Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of

MLI

Mali

MLT

Malta

MMR

Myanmar

MNE

Montenegro

MNG

Mongolia

MOZ

Mozambique

MRT

Mauritania

MUS

Mauritius

MWI

Malawi

MYS

Malaysia

NAM

Namibia

NER

Niger

NGA

Nigeria

NIC

Nicaragua

NLD

Netherlands

NOR

Norway

NPL

Nepal

NZL

New Zealand

OMN

Oman

PAK

Pakistan

PAN

Panama

PER

Peru

PHL

Philippines

PLW

Palau

PNG

Papua New Guinea

POL

Poland

PRT

Portugal

PRY

Paraguay

OAT

Qatar

Code

Country name

ROU

Romania

RUS

Russia

RWA

Rwanda

SAU

Saudi Arabia

SDN

Sudan

SEN

Senegal

SGP

Singapore

SLB

Solomon Islands

SLE

Sierra Leone

SLV

El Salvador

SMR

San Marino

SOM

Somalia

SRB

Serbia

STP

Sao Tomé and Principe

SUR

Suriname

SVK

Slovak Republic

SVN

Slovenia

SWE

Sweden

SWZ

Swaziland

SYC

Seychelles

SYR

Syria

TCD

Chad

TGO

Togo

THA

Thailand

TJK

Tajikistan

TKM

Turkmenistan

TLS

Timor-Leste

TON

Tonga

TTO

Trinidad and Tobago

TUN

Tunisia

TUR

Turkey

TUV

Tuvalu

TWN

Taiwan Province of China

TZA

Tanzania

UGA

Uganda

UKR

Ukraine

URY

Uruguay

USA

United States

UZB

Uzbekistan

VCT

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

VEN

Venezuela

VNM

Vietnam

VUT

Vanuatu

WSM

Samoa

YEM

Yemen

ZAF

South Africa

ZMB

Zambia

ZWE

Zimbabwe

Glossary

Term

Definition

Automatic stabilizers

Budgetary measures that dampen fluctuation in real GDP, automatically triggered by the tax code and by spending rules.

Contingent liabilities

Obligations of a government, the timing and magnitude of which depend on the occurrence of some uncertain future event outside the government’s control. Can be explicit (obligations based on contracts, laws, or clear policy commitments) or implicit (political or moral obligations) and sometime arise from expectations that government will intervene in the event of a crisis or a disaster, or when the opportunity cost of not intervening is considered to be unacceptable.

Cyclical balance

Cyclical component of the overall fiscal balance, computed as the difference between cyclical revenues and cyclical expenditures. The latter are typically computed using country-specific elasticities of aggregate revenue and expenditure series with respect to the output gap. Where unavailable, standard elasticities (0,1) are assumed for expenditure and revenue, respectively.

Cyclically adjusted balance (CAB)

Difference between the overall balance and the automatic stabilizers; equivalently, an estimate of the fiscal balance that would apply under current policies if output were equal to potential.

Cyclically adjusted (CA) expenditure and revenue

Revenue and expenditure adjusted for temporary effects associated with the deviation of actual from potential output (i.e., net of automatic stabilizers).

Cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB)

Cyclically adjusted balance excluding net interest payments.

Fiscal devaluation

A revenue-neutral shift from employers’ social contributions toward value-added tax.

Expenditure elasticity

Elasticity of expenditure with respect to the output gap.

Fiscal multiplier

The ratio of a change in output to an exogenous and temporary change in the fiscal deficit with respect to their respective baselines.

Fiscal stimulus

Discretionary fiscal policy actions (including revenue reductions and spending increases) adopted in response to a financial crisis.

General government

All government units and all nonmarket, nonprofit institutions that are controlled and mainly financed by government units comprising the central, state, and local governments; includes Social Security funds, and does not include public corporations or quasi-corporations.

Gross debt

All liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor. This includes debt liabilities in the form of special drawing rights, currency, and deposits; debt securities; loans; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes; and other accounts payable. (See the 2001 edition of the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual and Public Sector Debt Statistics Manual). The term “public debt” is used in the Fiscal Monitor, for simplicity, as synonymous with gross debt of the general government, unless otherwise specified. (Strictly speaking, the term “public debt” refers to the debt of the public sector as a whole, which includes financial and nonfinancial public enterprises and the central bank.)

Gross financing needs (also gross financing requirements)

Overall new borrowing requirement plus debt maturing during the year.

Interest rate-growth differential

Effective interest rate (r, defined as the ratio of interest payments to the debt of the preceding period) minus nominal GDP growth (g), divided by 1 plus nominal GDP growth: (rg)/(1 + g).

Net debt

Gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. These financial assets are: monetary gold and SDRs, currency and deposits, debt securities, loans, insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes, and other accounts receivable. In some countries the reported net debt can deviate from this definition on the basis of available information and national fiscal accounting practices.

Nonfinancial public sector

General government plus nonfinancial public corporations.

Output gap

Deviation of actual from potential GDP, in percent of potential GDP.

Overall fiscal balance (also “head-line” fiscal balance)

Net lending/borrowing, defined as the difference between revenue and total expenditure, using the 2001 edition of the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). Does not include policy lending. For some countries, the overall balance continues to be based on GFSM 1986, which is defined as total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Policy lending

Transactions in financial assets that are deemed to be for public policy purposes but are not part of the overall balance.

Primary balance

Overall balance excluding net interest payment (interest expenditure minus interest revenue).

Public debt

See Gross debt.

Public sector

The general government sector plus government-controlled entities, known as public corporations, whose primary activity is to engage in commercial activities.

Revenue elasticity

Elasticity of revenue with respect to the output gap.

Stock-flow adjustment

Change in the gross debt explained by factors other than the overall fiscal balance (for example, valuation changes).

Structural fiscal balance

Difference between the cyclically adjusted balance and other nonrecurrent effects that go beyond the cycle, such as one-off operations and other factors whose cyclical fluctuations do not coincide with the output cycle (for instance, asset and commodity prices and output composition effects).

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