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Abstract

As the Federal Reserve’s statutory objectives are defined as specific goals for the U.S. economy—to pursue maximum sustainable employment and price stability—and its policy decisions are targeted to achieve these dual objectives, there might seem to be little need for its policymakers to pay attention to developments outside the United States. But such an inference would be incorrect: the state of the U.S. economy is significantly affected by the state of the world economy, and of course, actions taken by the Federal Reserve influence economic conditions abroad, which in turn spill back on the evolution of the U.S. economy and therefore must be taken into account in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy choices. This Per Jacobsson Lecture first reviews the effect of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies on the rest of the global economy, particularly emerging market economies. It then addresses prospective outcomes and possible risks associated with the normalization of the Federal Reserve’s policies. Finally, it discusses the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities in the world economy.

References

  • Ahmed, Shaghil, and Andrei Zlate. (2014). “Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 48 (Part B), pp. 22148.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avdjiev, Stefan, and Elód Takáts. (2014). “Cross-Border Bank Lending during the Taper Tantrum: The Role of Emerging Market Fundamentals.BIS Quarterly Review (September), pp. 4960.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bank of England. (2013). Inflation Report. London, August.

  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2010a). “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.Speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2010b). “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.Statement before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., July 21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2012). “U.S. Monetary Policy and International Implications.Speech delivered at Bank of Japan-International Monetary Fund seminarChallenges of the Global Financial System: Risks and Governance under Evolving Globalization,Tokyo, October 14.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2014). “The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward.Speech delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, January 3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borio, Claudio, and Haibin Zhu. (2012). “Capital Regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December), pp. 23651.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bowman, David, Juan M. Londono, and Horacio Sapriza. (2014). “U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies.International Finance Discussion Papers 1109. Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun Song Shin. (forthcoming). “Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity.Review of Economic Studies.

  • Chen, Qianying, Andrew Filardo, Dong He, and Feng Zhu. (2012). “International Spillovers of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies.” In Are Central Bank Balance Sheets in Asia Too Large? (BIS Papers 66), pp. 23074. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, October.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • D’Amico, Stefania, and Thomas B. King. (2013). “Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases: Evidence on the Importance of Local Supply.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 108, No. 2 (May), pp. 42548.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Draghi, Mario, and Vitor Constâncio. (2013). “Introductory Statement to the Press Conference (with Q&A).Speech delivered at the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, July 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrmann, Michael, and Marcel Fratzscher. (2005). “Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States.Economic Journal, Vol. 115 (October), pp. 92848.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrmann, Michael, and Marcel Fratzscher. (2009). “Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 6 (December), pp. 73959.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, Barry. (2013). “Does the Federal Reserve Care about the Rest of the World?Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Fall), pp. 87103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Federal Open Market Committee. (2014). “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fischer, Stanley. (2014). “Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We?Martin Feldstein Lecture, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, July 10.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fleming, J. Marcus. (1962). “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates.International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 9, No. 3 (November), pp. 36980.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fratzscher, Marcel. (2012). “Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis.Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2 (November), pp. 34156.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fratzscher, Marcel, Marco Lo Duca, and Roland Straub. (2013). “On the International Spillovers of U.S. Quantitative Easing.Working Paper Series 1557. Frankfurt: European Central Bank, June.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Furceri, Davide, Stéphanie Guichard, and Elena Rusticelli. (2011). “Medium-Term Determinants of International Investment Positions: The Role of Structural Policies.Economics Department Working Paper Series 863. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gagnon, Joseph, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache, and Brian Sack. (2011). “Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?Economic Policy Review [Federal Reserve Bank of New York], Vol. 17, No. 1 (May), pp. 4159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Glick, Reuven, and Sylvain Leduc. (2013). “The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar.Working Paper 2013-11. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamilton, James D., and Jing Cynthia Wu. (2012). “The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, Suppl. 1 (February), pp. 346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hanson, Samuel, and Jeremy Stein. (2015). “Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 115, No. 3 (March), pp. 42948.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hausman, Joshua, and Jon Wongswan. (2011). “Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements.Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 30, No. 3 (April), pp. 54771.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hume, David. (1742). “Of Interest.Political Discourses, essay IV, in Eugene F. Miller, ed., Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary. Indianapolis, Indiana: Liberty Fund (1987).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund. (2013). IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report: 2013 Spillover Report. Washington, August.

  • Joyce, Michael A. S., Ana Lasaosa, Ibrahim Stevens, and Matthew Tong. (2011). “The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom.International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 7, No. 3 (September), pp. 11361.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kindleberger, Charles P. (1986). The World in Depression, 1929–1939. Berkeley: University of California Press.

  • Luca, Oana, and Nikola Spatafora. (2012). “Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Interrelationships.IMF Working Paper 12/120. Washington: International Monetary Fund, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morris, Stephen, and Hyun Song Shin. (2014). “Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: A Global Game Approach.Working paper, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, February.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mundell, Robert A. (1963). “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates.Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, Vol. 29, No. 4 (November), pp. 47585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neely, Christopher J. (2011). “The Large-Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects.Working Paper Series 2010-018C, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, January.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Powell, Jerome H. (2013). “Advanced Economy Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Economies.Speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference, San Francisco, November 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rey, Hélène. (2013). “Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence.Paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City SymposiumGlobal Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy,Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22–24.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, John H., Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright. (2014). “Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison.International Finance Discussion Papers 1101. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sahay, Ratna, Vivek Arora, Thanos Arvanitis, Hamid Faruqee, Papa N’Diaye, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, and an IMF Team. (2014). “Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from the Taper Tantrum.Staff Discussion Note SDN/14/09. Washington: International Monetary Fund, September.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takáts, Elod, and Abraham Vela. (2014). “International Monetary Policy Transmission.BIS Papers 78. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, August.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tarullo, Daniel K. (2014). “Stress Testing after Five Years.Speech delivered at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Third Annual Stress Test Modeling Symposium, Boston, June 25.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yellen, Janet L. (2014). “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.Speech delivered at the International Monetary Fund’s 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, Washington, D.C., July 2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
ch02ufig1

Stanley Fischer

Stanley Fischer has been Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since June 2014. Prior to his appointment to the Board, he was governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 through 2013. He previously served as Vice Chairman of Citigroup, First Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, and Chief Economist of the World Bank, following a career in academia that spanned more than two decades, chiefly at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Dr. Fischer has published many articles on a wide variety of economic issues, and he is the author and editor of several scholarly books. He has been a fellow at the Guggenheim Foundation, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Econometric Society, as well as a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and an honorary fellow at the London School of Economics.

Dr. Fischer was born in Lusaka, Zambia, in October 1943. He received his B.Sc. and M.Sc. in economics from the London School of Economics. He received his Ph.D. in economics from MIT in 1969. He is married with three adult children.

The Per Jacobsson Lectures

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The Per Jacobsson Lectures are available on the Internet at www.perjacobsson.org, which also contains further information on the Foundation. Copies of the Per Jacobsson Lectures may be acquired without charge from the Secretary. Unless otherwise indicated, the lectures were delivered in Washington, D.C.

The Per Jacobsson Foundation

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Founding Sponsors

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Board of Directors

Guillermo Ortiz —Chairman of the Board

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Officers

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The Federal Reserve and the Global Economy
  • Ahmed, Shaghil, and Andrei Zlate. (2014). “Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies: A Brave New World?Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 48 (Part B), pp. 22148.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avdjiev, Stefan, and Elód Takáts. (2014). “Cross-Border Bank Lending during the Taper Tantrum: The Role of Emerging Market Fundamentals.BIS Quarterly Review (September), pp. 4960.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bank of England. (2013). Inflation Report. London, August.

  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2010a). “The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.Speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 27.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2010b). “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.Statement before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C., July 21.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2012). “U.S. Monetary Policy and International Implications.Speech delivered at Bank of Japan-International Monetary Fund seminarChallenges of the Global Financial System: Risks and Governance under Evolving Globalization,Tokyo, October 14.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernanke, Ben S. (2014). “The Federal Reserve: Looking Back, Looking Forward.Speech delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, January 3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borio, Claudio, and Haibin Zhu. (2012). “Capital Regulation, Risk-Taking and Monetary Policy: A Missing Link in the Transmission Mechanism?Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 8, No. 4 (December), pp. 23651.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bowman, David, Juan M. Londono, and Horacio Sapriza. (2014). “U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies.International Finance Discussion Papers 1109. Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bruno, Valentina, and Hyun Song Shin. (forthcoming). “Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity.Review of Economic Studies.

  • Chen, Qianying, Andrew Filardo, Dong He, and Feng Zhu. (2012). “International Spillovers of Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies.” In Are Central Bank Balance Sheets in Asia Too Large? (BIS Papers 66), pp. 23074. Basel: Bank for International Settlements, October.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • D’Amico, Stefania, and Thomas B. King. (2013). “Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases: Evidence on the Importance of Local Supply.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 108, No. 2 (May), pp. 42548.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Draghi, Mario, and Vitor Constâncio. (2013). “Introductory Statement to the Press Conference (with Q&A).Speech delivered at the European Central Bank, Frankfurt, July 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrmann, Michael, and Marcel Fratzscher. (2005). “Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence between the Euro Area and the United States.Economic Journal, Vol. 115 (October), pp. 92848.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrmann, Michael, and Marcel Fratzscher. (2009). “Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks.Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 71, No. 6 (December), pp. 73959.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, Barry. (2013). “Does the Federal Reserve Care about the Rest of the World?Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Fall), pp. 87103.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Federal Open Market Committee. (2014). “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 28.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fischer, Stanley. (2014). “Financial Sector Reform: How Far Are We?Martin Feldstein Lecture, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts, July 10.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fleming, J. Marcus. (1962). “Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates.International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, Vol. 9, No. 3 (November), pp. 36980.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fratzscher, Marcel. (2012). “Capital Flows, Push versus Pull Factors and the Global Financial Crisis.Journal of International Economics, Vol. 88, No. 2 (November), pp. 34156.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fratzscher, Marcel, Marco Lo Duca, and Roland Straub. (2013). “On the International Spillovers of U.S. Quantitative Easing.Working Paper Series 1557. Frankfurt: European Central Bank, June.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Furceri, Davide, Stéphanie Guichard, and Elena Rusticelli. (2011). “Medium-Term Determinants of International Investment Positions: The Role of Structural Policies.Economics Department Working Paper Series 863. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gagnon, Joseph, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache, and Brian Sack. (2011). “Large-Scale Asset Purchases by the Federal Reserve: Did They Work?Economic Policy Review [Federal Reserve Bank of New York], Vol. 17, No. 1 (May), pp. 4159.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Glick, Reuven, and Sylvain Leduc. (2013). “The Effects of Unconventional and Conventional U.S. Monetary Policy on the Dollar.Working Paper 2013-11. San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hamilton, James D., and Jing Cynthia Wu. (2012). “The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment.Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, Suppl. 1 (February), pp. 346.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hanson, Samuel, and Jeremy Stein. (2015). “Monetary Policy and Long-Term Real Rates.Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 115, No. 3 (March), pp. 42948.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hausman, Joshua, and Jon Wongswan. (2011). “Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements.Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 30, No. 3 (April), pp. 54771.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hume, David. (1742). “Of Interest.Political Discourses, essay IV, in Eugene F. Miller, ed., Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary. Indianapolis, Indiana: Liberty Fund (1987).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund. (2013). IMF Multilateral Policy Issues Report: 2013 Spillover Report. Washington, August.

  • Joyce, Michael A. S., Ana Lasaosa, Ibrahim Stevens, and Matthew Tong. (2011). “The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom.International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 7, No. 3 (September), pp. 11361.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kindleberger, Charles P. (1986). The World in Depression, 1929–1939. Berkeley: University of California Press.

  • Luca, Oana, and Nikola Spatafora. (2012). “Capital Inflows, Financial Development, and Domestic Investment: Determinants and Interrelationships.IMF Working Paper 12/120. Washington: International Monetary Fund, May.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Morris, Stephen, and Hyun Song Shin. (2014). “Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy: A Global Game Approach.Working paper, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, February.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mundell, Robert A. (1963). “Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates.Canadian Journal of Economic and Political Science, Vol. 29, No. 4 (November), pp. 47585.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Neely, Christopher J. (2011). “The Large-Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects.Working Paper Series 2010-018C, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, January.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Powell, Jerome H. (2013). “Advanced Economy Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Economies.Speech delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2013 Asia Economic Policy Conference, San Francisco, November 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rey, Hélène. (2013). “Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence.Paper presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City SymposiumGlobal Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy,Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22–24.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rogers, John H., Chiara Scotti, and Jonathan H. Wright. (2014). “Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Comparison.International Finance Discussion Papers 1101. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sahay, Ratna, Vivek Arora, Thanos Arvanitis, Hamid Faruqee, Papa N’Diaye, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, and an IMF Team. (2014). “Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from the Taper Tantrum.Staff Discussion Note SDN/14/09. Washington: International Monetary Fund, September.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Takáts, Elod, and Abraham Vela. (2014). “International Monetary Policy Transmission.BIS Papers 78. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, August.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tarullo, Daniel K. (2014). “Stress Testing after Five Years.Speech delivered at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s Third Annual Stress Test Modeling Symposium, Boston, June 25.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yellen, Janet L. (2014). “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability.Speech delivered at the International Monetary Fund’s 2014 Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecture, Washington, D.C., July 2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation