Back Matter
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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
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Keywords:
WEO; emerging market; inflation expectation; banking crisis; advanced economy; debtor economy; energy demand; Inflation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Banking crises; Robotics; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
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Abstract

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

Statistical Appendix

The Statistical Appendix presents historical data as well as projections. It comprises seven sections: Assumptions, What’s New, Data and Conventions, Country Notes, Classification of Countries, Key Data Documentation, and Statistical Tables.

The assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2018–19 and the medium-term scenario for 2020–23 are summarized in the first section. The second section presents a brief description of the changes to the database and statistical tables since the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO). The third section provides a general description of the data and the conventions used for calculating country group composites. The fourth section summarizes selected key information for each country. The fifth section summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the WEO. The sixth section provides information on methods and reporting standards for the member countries’ national account and government finance indicators included in the report.

The last, and main, section comprises the statistical tables. (Statistical Appendix A is included here; Statistical Appendix B is available online.) Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through September 18, 2018. The figures for 2018 and beyond are shown with the same degree of precision as the historical figures solely for convenience; because they are projections, the same degree of accuracy is not to be inferred.

Assumptions

Real effective exchange rates for the advanced economies are assumed to remain constant at their average levels measured during the period July 17 to August 14, 2018. For 2018 and 2019, these assumptions imply average US dollar–special drawing right (SDR) conversion rates of 1.419 and 1.406, US dollar–euro conversion rates of 1.186 and 1.170, and yen–US dollar conversion rates of 109.8 and 109.3, respectively.

It is assumed that the price of oil will average $69.38 a barrel in 2018 and $68.76 a barrel in 2019.

Established policies of national authorities are assumed to be maintained. The more specific policy assumptions underlying the projections for selected economies are described in Box A1.

With regard to interest rates, it is assumed that the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month US dollar deposits will average 2.5 percent in 2018 and 3.4 percent in 2019, that three-month euro deposits will average –0.3 percent in 2018 and –0.2 percent in 2019, and that six-month yen deposits will average 0.0 percent in 2018 and 0.1 percent in 2019.

As a reminder, in regard to the introduction of the euro, on December 31, 1998, the Council of the European Union decided that, effective January 1, 1999, the irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and currencies of the member countries adopting the euro are as described in Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO:

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Established on January 1, 2008.

Established on January 1, 2011.

Established on January 1, 2001.

Established on January 1, 2014.

Established on January 1, 2015.

Established on January 1, 2009.

Established on January 1, 2007.

See Box 5.4 of the October 1998 WEO for details on how the conversion rates were established.

What’s New

  • Argentine’s consumer prices, which were previously excluded from the group composites because of data constraints, are now included starting from 2017 onward.

  • Data for Aruba are included in the data aggregated for the emerging market and developing economies.

  • Egypt’s forecast data from which the nominal exchange rate assumptions are calculated that were previously excluded because the nominal exchange rate was a market-sensitive issue, are now made public.

  • Swaziland is now called Eswatini.

  • Venezuela redenominated its currency on August 20, 2018, by replacing 100,000 bolívares Fuertes (VEF) with 1 bolívar Soberano (VES). Local currency data, including the historical data, for Venezuela are expressed in the new currency beginning with the October 2018 WEO database.

Data and Conventions

Data and projections for 194 economies form the statistical basis of the WEO database. The data are maintained jointly by the IMF’s Research Department and regional departments, with the latter regularly updating country projections based on consistent global assumptions.

Although national statistical agencies are the ultimate providers of historical data and definitions, international organizations are also involved in statistical issues, with the objective of harmonizing methodologies for the compilation of national statistics, including analytical frameworks, concepts, definitions, classifications, and valuation procedures used in the production of economic statistics. The WEO database reflects information from both national source agencies and international organizations.

Most countries’ macroeconomic data presented in the WEO conform broadly to the 2008 version of the System of National Accounts (SNA). The IMF’s sector statistical standards—the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG), and the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—have been or are being aligned with the SNA 2008. These standards reflect the IMF’s special interest in countries’ external positions, financial sector stability, and public sector fiscal positions. The process of adapting country data to the new standards begins in earnest when the manuals are released. However, full concordance with the manuals is ultimately dependent on the provision by national statistical compilers of revised country data; hence, the WEO estimates are only partially adapted to these manuals. Nonetheless, for many countries, the impact on major balances and aggregates of conversion to the updated standards will be small. Many other countries have partially adopted the latest standards and will continue implementation over a period of years.1

The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the WEO are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. While attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the GFSM, as a result of data limitations or specific country circumstances, these data can sometimes deviate from the formal definitions. Although every effort is made to ensure the WEO data are relevant and internationally comparable, differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the data are not universally comparable. As more information becomes available, changes in either data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial. For clarification on the deviations in sectoral or instrument coverage, please refer to the metadata for the online WEO database.

Composite data for country groups in the WEO are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries. Unless noted otherwise, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change.2 Arithmetically weighted averages are used for all data for the emerging market and developing economies group—except data on inflation and money growth, for which geometric averages are used. The following conventions apply:

Country group composites for exchange rates, interest rates, and growth rates of monetary aggregates are weighted by GDP converted to US dollars at market exchange rates (averaged over the preceding three years) as a share of group GDP.

Composites for other data relating to the domestic economy, whether growth rates or ratios, are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parity as a share of total world or group GDP.3 Annual inflation rates are simple percentage changes from the previous years, except in the case of emerging market and developing economies, for which the rates are based on logarithmic differences.

Composites for real GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms are sums of individual country data after conversion to the international dollar in the years indicated.

Unless noted otherwise, composites for all sectors for the euro area are corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions. Unadjusted annual GDP data are used for the euro area and for the majority of individual countries, except for Cyprus, Germany, Ireland, and Portugal, which report calendar adjusted data. For data prior to 1999, data aggregations apply 1995 European currency unit exchange rates.

Composites for fiscal data are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated.

Composite unemployment rates and employment growth are weighted by labor force as a share of group labor force.

Composites relating to external sector statistics are sums of individual country data after conversion to US dollars at the average market exchange rates in the years indicated for balance of payments data and at end-of-year market exchange rates for debt denominated in currencies other than US dollars.

Composites of changes in foreign trade volumes and prices, however, are arithmetic averages of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the US dollar value of exports or imports as a share of total world or group exports or imports (in the preceding year).

Unless noted otherwise, group composites are computed if 90 percent or more of the share of group weights is represented.

Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years; Table F lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and government finance data for each country.

For some countries, the figures for 2017 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns; Table G lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.

Country Notes

The consumer price data for Argentina before December 2013 reflect the consumer price index (CPI) for the Greater Buenos Aires Area (CPI-GBA), while from December 2013 to October 2015 the data reflect the national CPI (IPCNu). The government that took office in December 2015 discontinued the IPCNu, stating that it was flawed, and released a new CPI for the Greater Buenos Aires Area on June 15, 2016 (a new national CPI has been disseminated starting in June 2017). At its November 9, 2016, meeting, the IMF Executive Board considered the new CPI series to be in line with international standards and lifted the declaration of censure issued in 2013. Given the differences in geographical coverage, weights, sampling, and methodology of these series, the average CPI inflation for 2014, 2015, and 2016, and end-of-period inflation for 2015 and 2016 are not reported in the October 2018 WEO.

Argentina’s authorities discontinued the publication of labor market data in December 2015 and released new series starting in the second quarter of 2016.

Greece’s primary balance estimates for 2017 are based on preliminary excessive deficit procedure data on an accrual basis (ESA 2010) provided by the National Statistical Service as of April 23, 2018. Historical data since 2010 reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance procedure for Greece.

India’s real GDP growth rates are calculated as per national accounts: for 1998 to 2011, with base year 2004/05; thereafter, with base year 2011/12.

Against the background of a civil war and weak capacities, the reliability of Libya’s data, especially medium-term projections, is low.

Data for Syria are excluded from 2011 onward because of the uncertain political situation.

Data and projections for Turkey represent information available as of September 11, 2018.

Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela, including assessing past and current economic developments as the basis for the projections, is complicated by the lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), long intervals in receiving data with information gaps, incomplete provision of information, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), and data for 2016–23 are IMF staff estimates. Revenue includes the IMF staff’s estimate of foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying US dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system) and excludes IMF staff’s estimate of revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank. The effects of hyperinflation and the noted data gaps mean that IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year. Fiscal accounts for 2010–23 correspond to the budgetary central government and PDVSA. Fiscal accounts before 2010 correspond to the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including PDVSA), Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS - social security), and Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE - deposit insurance).

Venezuela’s consumer prices (CPI) are excluded from all WEO group composites.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

The country classification in the WEO divides the world into two major groups: advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies.4 This classification is not based on strict criteria, economic or otherwise, and it has evolved over time. The objective is to facilitate analysis by providing a reasonably meaningful method of organizing data. Table A provides an overview of the country classification, showing the number of countries in each group by region and summarizing some key indicators of their relative size (GDP valued at purchasing power parity, total exports of goods and services, and population).

Some countries remain outside the country classification and therefore are not included in the analysis. Cuba and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are examples of countries that are not IMF members, and their economies therefore are not monitored by the IMF.

General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification

Advanced Economies

The 39 advanced economies are listed in Table B. The seven largest in terms of GDP based on market exchange rates—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies; often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though the membership has increased over time.

Table C lists the member countries of the European Union, not all of which are classified as advanced economies in the WEO.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

The group of emerging market and developing economies (155) includes all those that are not classified as advanced economies.

The regional breakdowns of emerging market and developing economies are Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); emerging and developing Asia; emerging and developing Europe (sometimes also referred to as “central and eastern Europe”); Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP); and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Emerging market and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria. The analytical criteria reflect the composition of export earnings and a distinction between net creditor and net debtor economies. The detailed composition of emerging market and developing economies in the regional and analytical groups is shown in Tables D and E.

The analytical criterion source of export earnings distinguishes between the categories fuel (Standard International Trade Classification [SITC] 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on nonfuel primary products (SITCs 0, 1, 2, 4, and 68). Economies are categorized into one of these groups when their main source of export earnings exceeded 50 percent of total exports on average between 2013 and 2017.5

The financial criteria focus on net creditor economies, net debtor economies, heavily indebted poor countries (HIPCs), and low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Economies are categorized as net debtors when their latest net international investment position, where available, was less than zero or their current account balance accumulations from 1972 (or earliest available data) to 2017 were negative. Net debtor economies are further differentiated on the basis of experience with debt servicing.

The HIPC group comprises the countries that are or have been considered by the IMF and the World Bank for participation in their debt initiative known as the HIPC Initiative, which aims to reduce the external debt burdens of all the eligible HIPCs to a “sustainable” level in a reasonably short period of time.6 Many of these countries have already benefited from debt relief and have graduated from the initiative.

The LIDCs are countries that have per capita income levels below a certain threshold (set at $2,700 in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method), structural features consistent with limited development and structural transformation, and insufficiently close external financial linkages to be widely seen as emerging market economies.

Table A.

Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 20171

(Percent of total for group or world)

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The GDP shares are based on the purchasing-power-parity valuation of economies’ GDP. The number of economies comprising each group reflects those for which data are included in the group aggregates.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Syria is omitted from the source of export earnings and South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composites because of insufficient data.

Table B.

Advanced Economies by Subgroup

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On July 1, 1997, Hong Kong was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

On December 20, 1999, Macao was returned to the People’s Republic of China and became a Special Administrative Region of China.

Table C.

European Union

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Table D.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings

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Turkmenistan, which is not a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, is included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Table E.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries

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Dot (star) indicates that the country is a net creditor (net debtor).

Dot instead of star indicates that the country has reached the completion point, which allows it to receive the full debt relief committed to at the decision point.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

South Sudan and Syria are omitted from the net external position group composite for lack of a fully developed database.

Table F.

Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods1

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Unless noted otherwise, all data refer to calendar years.

Table G.

Key Data Documentation

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Note: BPM = Balance of Payments Manual; CPI = consumer price Index; ESA = European System of National Accounts; SNA = System of National Accounts.

CB = central bank; Customs = Customs Authority; GAD = General Administration Department; IEO = International economic organization; MEP = Ministry of Economy, Planning, Commerce, and/or Development; MoF = Ministry of Finance and/or Treasury; NSO = National Statistics Office; PFTAC = Pacific Financial Technical Assistance Centre.

National accounts base year is the period with which other periods are compared and the period for which prices appear in the denominators of the price relationships used to calculate the index.

Use of chain-weighted methodology allows countries to measure GDP growth more accurately by reducing or eliminating the downward biases in volume series built on index numbers that average volume components using weights from a year in the moderately distant past.

BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; EUA = extrabudgetary units/accounts; LG = local government; MPC = monetary public corporation, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporation; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporation; SG = state government; SS = social security fund; TG = territorial governments.

Accounting standard: A = accrual accounting; C = cash accounting; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

Base year is not equal to 100 because the nominal GDP is not measured in the same way as real GDP or the data are seasonally adjusted.

Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies

Fiscal Policy Assumptions

The short-term fiscal policy assumptions used in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) are normally based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. When no official budget has been announced, projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. The medium-term fiscal projections are similarly based on a judgment about the most likely path of policies. For cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed unless indicated otherwise. Specific assumptions used in regard to some of the advanced economies follow. (See also Tables B5 to B9 in the online section of the Statistical Appendix for data on fiscal net lending/borrowing and structural balances.)1

Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

Australia: Fiscal projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2018/19 budgets of the commonwealth and states and territories, 2017/18 mid-year fiscal and economic reviews by states and territories, and the IMF staff’s estimates.

Austria: Fiscal projections are based on data from Statistics Austria, the authorities’ projections, and the IMF staff’s estimates and projections.

Belgium: Projections are based on the 2018–21 Stability Programme and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.

Brazil: Fiscal projections for the end of 2018 account for budget performance through May 2018, and the deficit target approved in the budget law.

Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the 2018 federal budget and the latest provincial budget updates as available. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to these forecasts, including for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff’s forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s Canadian System of National Economic Accounts, including federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns through the first quarter of 2018.

Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s projections for GDP and copper prices.

China: Projections assume that the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to be more gradual, reflecting reforms to strengthen social safety nets and the social security system announced as part of the Third Plenum reform agenda.

Denmark: Estimates for 2017 are aligned with the latest official budget numbers, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2018, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ Convergence Programme 2017 submitted to the European Union.

France: Projections for 2018 reflect the 2018 budget law. For 2018–23, they are based on the measures in the multiyear budget and the 2018 budget laws and additional measures expected in the 2019 budget law adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro and financial variables, and revenue projections. Historical fiscal data reflect the May 2018 revisions and update of the historical fiscal accounts, debt data, and national accounts.

Germany: The IMF staff’s projections for 2018 and beyond are based on the 2018 Stability Programme, revised 2018 federal budget, and data updates from the national statistical agency, adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.

Greece: Fiscal projections reflect adjustments in line with the primary balance definition under the enhanced surveillance procedure for Greece.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections on expenditures.

Hungary: Fiscal projections include the IMF staff’s projections of the macroeconomic framework and of the impact of recent legislative measures, as well as fiscal policy plans announced in the 2018 budget.

India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to one year; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.

Indonesia: IMF projections are based on moderate tax policy and administration reforms, fuel subsidy pricing reforms introduced since January 2015, and a gradual increase in social and capital spending over the medium term in line with fiscal space.

Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Budget 2018.

Israel: Historical data are based on Government Finance Statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The central government deficit is assumed to remain at the current ceiling of 2.9 percent of GDP throughout the projection period, rather than declining in line with medium-term fiscal targets, consistent with long experience of revisions to those targets.

Italy: The IMF staff’s estimates and projections are informed by the fiscal plans included in the government’s 2018 budget and April 2018 Economic and Financial Document. IMF staff assumes that the automatic value-added tax hikes for next year will be canceled.

Japan: The projections include fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax hike in October 2019.

Korea: The medium-term forecast incorporates the medium-term path for public spending announced by the government.

Mexico: Fiscal projections for 2018 are broadly in line with the approved budget; projections for 2019 onward assume compliance with rules established in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Netherlands: Fiscal projections for 2017–23 are based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after differences in macroeconomic assumptions are adjusted for. Historical data were revised following the June 2014 Central Bureau of Statistics release of revised macro data because of the adoption of ESA 2010 and the revisions of data sources.

New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the fiscal year 2018/19 budget and 2017 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update, and the IMF staff’s estimates.

Portugal: The projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.

Puerto Rico: Fiscal projections are based on the Puerto Rico Fiscal and Economic Growth Plans (FEGPs), which were prepared in April and updated in August of 2018, and is pending certification by the Oversight Board. In line with assumptions of this plan, IMF projections assume federal aid for rebuilding after Hurricane Maria devastated the island in September 2017. The projections also assume revenue losses from the following: elimination of federal funding for the Affordable Care Act starting in 2018 for Puerto Rico; elimination of federal tax incentives starting in 2018 that had neutralized the effects of Puerto Rico’s Act 154 on foreign firms; and the effects of the Tax Cuts and Job Act, which reduce tax advantages of US firms producing in Puerto Rico. Given sizable policy uncertainty, some FEGP and IMF assumptions may differ, in particular those relating to the effects of the corporate tax reform, tax compliance, and tax adjustments (fees and rates); reduction of subsidies and expenses, freezing of payroll operational costs, and improvement of mobility; and increasing health care efficiency. On the expenditure side, measures include extension of Act 66, which freezes much government spending, through 2020; reduction of operating costs; decreases in government subsidies; and spending cuts in education. Although IMF policy assumptions are similar to those in the FEGP scenario with full measures, the IMF’s projections of fiscal revenues, expenditures, and balance are different from FEGP’s. This stems from two main differences in methodologies: first, while IMF projections are on an accrual basis, FEGP’s are on a cash basis. Second, the IMF and FEGP make very different macroeconomic assumptions. Third, the IMF’s projections are on a calendar year basis while FEGP’s are on a fiscal year basis.

Russia: Projections for 2018–21 are the IMF staff’s estimates, based on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2022–23 are based on the new oil price rule, with adjustments by the IMF staff.

Saudi Arabia: Staff baseline projections of total government revenues reflect the impact of announced policies in the 2018 Budget. Oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and the assumption that Saudi Arabia continues to meet its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2018 budget as a starting point and reflect staff estimates of the effects of the latest changes in policies and economic developments. Expenditures in 2018 include allowances and other measures announced in the Royal Decree for one year in January 2018.

Singapore: For fiscal year 2018/19, projections are based on budget numbers. For the rest of the projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

South Africa: Fiscal projections are based on the 2018 Budget. Nontax revenue excludes transactions in financial assets and liabilities, as they involve primarily revenues associated with realized exchange rate valuation gains from the holding of foreign currency deposits, sale of assets, and conceptually similar items.

Spain: For 2018 and beyond, fiscal projections are based on the information specified in the government’s 2018 Stability Programme and on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

Sweden: Fiscal projections account for the authorities’ projections based on the 2018 Spring Budget. The impact of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 2005 elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of Switzerland’s fiscal rules.

Turkey: The fiscal projections for 2018 are based on the authorities’ Medium Term Programme 2018–20, with adjustments for additionally announced fiscal measures and the IMF staff’s higher inflation forecast. For the medium term, the fiscal projections assume a more gradual fiscal consolidation than envisaged in the Medium Term Programme.

United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s November 2017 Budget and the March 2018 update, with expenditure projections based on the budgeted nominal values and with revenue projections adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections. The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012. Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.

United States: Fiscal projections are based on the August update to the April 2018 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law end of 2017) as well as the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 passed in February 2018. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and defined-benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis. Data are compiled using SNA 2008, and when translated into government finance statistics, this is in accordance with the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014. Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.

Monetary Policy Assumptions

Monetary policy assumptions are based on the established policy framework in each country. In most cases, this implies a nonaccommodative stance over the business cycle: official interest rates will increase when economic indicators suggest that inflation will rise above its acceptable rate or range; they will decrease when indicators suggest inflation will not exceed the acceptable rate or range, that output growth is below its potential rate, and that the margin of slack in the economy is significant. On this basis, the London interbank offered rate on six-month US dollar deposits is assumed to average 2.5 percent in 2018 and 3.4 percent in 2019 (see Table 1.1). The rate on three-month euro deposits is assumed to average –0.3 percent in 2018 and –0.2 percent in 2019. The interest rate on six-month Japanese yen deposits is assumed to average 0.0 percent in 2018 and 0.1 percent in 2019.

Argentina: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with gradual disinflation of the economy to a single digit.

Australia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.

Brazil: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with gradual convergence of inflation toward the middle of the target range.

Canada: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.

China: Monetary policy is expected to tighten with a gradual rise in the interest rate.

Denmark: The monetary policy is to maintain the peg to the euro.

Euro area: Monetary policy assumptions for euro area member countries are in line with market expectations.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: The IMF staff assumes that the currency board system remains intact.

India: The policy (interest) rate assumption is consistent with an inflation rate within the Reserve Bank of India’s targeted band. Consistent with IMF staff’s estimates of natural rate of inflation and an inflation-forecast targeting policy rule, an additional increase of policy rate (25–50 basis points) is needed.

Indonesia: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with the maintenance of inflation within the central bank’s targeted band.

Japan: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.

Korea: Monetary policy assumptions are in line with market expectations.

Mexico: Monetary policy assumptions are consistent with attaining the inflation target.

Russia: Monetary projections assume that the Central Bank of Russia will complete the transition to a neutral stance at a slower pace given upside risks to the inflation outlook.

Saudi Arabia: Monetary policy projections are based on the continuation of the exchange rate peg to the US dollar.

Singapore: Broad money is projected to grow in line with the projected growth in nominal GDP.

South Africa: Monetary policy will remain neutral.

Sweden: Monetary projections are in line with Riks-bank projections.

Switzerland: The projections assume no change in the policy rate in 2018–19.

Turkey: The outlook for monetary and financial conditions assumes no changes to the current policy stance.

United Kingdom: The short-term interest rate path is based on market interest rate expectations.

United States: The IMF staff expects continued gradual normalization of the federal funds target rate over the medium term, in line with the broader macroeconomic outlook.

1 The output gap is actual minus potential output, as a percentage of potential output. Structural balances are expressed as a percentage of potential output. The structural balance is the actual net lending/borrowing minus the effects of cyclical output from potential output, corrected for one-time and other factors, such as asset and commodity prices and output composition effects. Changes in the structural balance consequently include effects of temporary fiscal measures, the impact of fluctuations in interest rates and debt-service costs, and other noncyclical fluctuations in net lending/borrowing. The computations of structural balances are based on the IMF staff’s estimates of potential GDP and revenue and expenditure elasticities. (See Annex I of the October 1993 WEO.) Net debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. Estimates of the output gap and of the structural balance are subject to significant margins of uncertainty.

List of Tables

Balance of Payments and External Financing

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

Table A1.

Summary of World Output1

(Annual percent change)

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Real GDP.

Excludes the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Output per capita is in international currency at purchasing power parity.

Table A2.

Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand1

(Annual percent change)

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In this and other tables, when countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size.

From the fourth quarter of the preceding year.

Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.

Table A3.

Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP

(Annual percent change)

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Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Table A4.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP

(Annual percent change)

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Data for some countries refer to real net material product (NMP) or are estimates based on NMP. The figures should be interpreted only as indicative of broad orders of magnitude because reliable, comparable data are not generally available. In particular, the growth of output of new private enterprises of the informal economy is not fully reflected in the recent figures.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Data are based on the 2008 System of National Accounts. The revised national accounts data are available beginning in 2000 and exclude Crimea and Sevastopol from 2010 onward.

See country-specific notes for India and Libya in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.

In this table only, the data for Timor-Leste are based on non-oil GDP.

Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.

Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.

The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009. Data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US dollars. IMF staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates. Real GDP is in constant 2009 prices.

Table A5.

Summary of Inflation

(Percent)

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Excludes the United States, euro area countries, and Japan.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Excludes Venezuela but includes Argentina starting from 2017 onward. See country-specific notes for Argentina and Venezuela in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Includes Argentina starting from 2017 onward. See country-specific note for Argentina in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.

Table A6.

Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices1

(Annual percent change)

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Movements in consumer prices are shown as annual averages.

Monthly year-over-year changes and, for several countries, on a quarterly basis.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Table A7.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices1

(Annual percent change)

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Movements in consumer prices are shown as annual averages.

Monthly year-over-year changes and, for several countries, on a quarterly basis.

For many countries, inflation for the earlier years is measured on the basis of a retail price index. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation data with broader and more up-to-date coverage are typically used for more recent years.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in the group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Starting in 2014 data exclude Crimea and Sevastopol.

Based on Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices.

Excludes Venezuela but includes Argentina starting from 2017 onward.

See country-specific notes for Argentina, Libya, and Venezuela in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.

Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.

Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.

The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009. Data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US dollars. IMF staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

Table A8.

Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt1

(Percent of GDP unless noted otherwise)

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Note: The methodology and specific assumptions for each country are discussed in Box A1. The country group composites for fiscal data are calculated as the sum of the US dollar values for the relevant individual countries.

Debt data refer to the end of the year and are not always comparable across countries. Gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans. Fiscal data for the aggregated major advanced economies and the United States start in 2001, and the average for the aggregate and the United States is therefore for the period 2001–07.

Percent of potential GDP.

Figures reported by the national statistical agency are adjusted to exclude items related to the accrual-basis accounting of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Excludes one-time measures based on the authorities’ data and, if unavailable, on receipts from the sale of assets.

Nonconsolidated basis.

Includes equity shares.

Table A9.

Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices

(Annual percent change)

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Average of annual percent change for world exports and imports.

As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for manufactures of the advanced economies and accounting for 83 percent of the advanced economies’ trade (export of goods) weights; the average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices; and the average of world market prices for nonfuel primary commodities weighted by their 2002–04 shares in world commodity exports.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Percent change of average of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices.

Percent change for manufactures exported by the advanced economies.

Table A10.

Summary of Current Account Balances

(Billions of US dollars)

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Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.

Table A11.

Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account

(Percent of GDP)

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Data corrected for reporting discrepancies in intra-area transactions.

Data calculated as the sum of the balances of individual euro area countries.

Table A12.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account

(Percent of GDP)

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Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.

Starting in 2014 data exclude Crimea and Sevastopol.

See country-specific note for Libya in the “Country Notes” section of the Statistical Appendix.

Data for 2011 exclude South Sudan after July 9. Data for 2012 and onward pertain to the current Sudan.

Data for Syria are excluded for 2011 onward owing to the uncertain political situation.

The Zimbabwe dollar ceased circulating in early 2009. Data are based on IMF staff estimates of price and exchange rate developments in US dollars. IMF staff estimates of US dollar values may differ from authorities’ estimates.

Table A13.

Summary of Financial Account Balances

(Billions of US dollars)

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Note: The estimates in this table are based on individual countries’ national accounts and balance of payments statistics. Country group composites are calculated as the sum of the US dollar values for the relevant individual countries. Some group aggregates for the financial derivatives are not shown because of incomplete data. Projections for the euro area are not available because of data constraints.

Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and euro area countries.

Georgia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine, which are not members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, are included in this group for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure.