Abstract

Foreign exchange intervention is widely used as a policy tool, particularly in emerging markets, but many facets of this tool remain limited, especially in the context of flexible exchange rate regimes. The Latin American experience can be informative because some of its largest countries adopted floating exchange rate regimes and inflation targeting while continuing to intervene in foreign exchange markets. This edited volume reviews detailed accounts from several Latin American countries’ central banks, and it provides insight into how and with what aim many interventions were decided and implemented. This book documents the effectiveness of intervention and pays special attention to the role of foreign exchange intervention policy within inflation-targeting monetary frameworks. The main lesson from Latin America’s foreign exchange interventions, in the context of inflation targeting, is that the region has had a considerable degree of success. Transparency and a clear communication policy have been key. For economies that are not highly dollarized, rules-based intervention helped contain financial instability and build international reserves while preserving inflation targets. The Latin American experience can help other countries in the design and implementation of their policies.

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    Figure 7.1.

    Real Effective Exchange Rate in Brazil, 1993–2017

    (Index, June 1994 = 100)

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    Figure 7.2.

    International Reserves and Net Public and Private Debt, 1993–2017

    (Billions of US dollars)

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    Figure 7.3.

    International Reserves, Swap Position, and Repo Position, 2003–17

    (Billions of US dollars)

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    Figure 7.4.

    Flowchart of Intervention Policy, Based on the Brazilian Experience

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    Figure 8.1.

    Exchange Rate Band, 1990–99

    (Chilean pesos per US dollar, observed Central Bank of Chile)

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    Figure 8.2.

    Monthly Reserves over Yearly GDP, 1990–2011

    (Reserves/GDP)

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    Figure 8.3.

    Interventions: Sale Announcements, 2001 and 2002

    (Chilean pesos per US dollar, observed Central Bank of Chile)

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    Figure 8.4.

    Interventions: Purchase Announcements, 2008 and 2011

    (Chilean pesos per US dollar, observed Central Bank of Chile)

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    Figure 8.5.

    Intraday Effect, 2008 and 2011

    (Chilean pesos per US dollar)

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    Figure 9.1.

    Colombian Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention, 1999–2017

    (Millions of US dollars, left scale; US dollar/Colombian peso official exchange rate, right scale)

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    Figure 9.2.

    Central Bank’s Indicators, 1999–2017

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    Figure 9.3.

    International Reserves Indicators

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    Figure 9.4.

    Decision Tree for Selling Reserves

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    Figure 10.1.

    Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates under Different Regimes, 1957–2017

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    Figure 10.2.

    MONEX Exchange Rate under the Crawling Band Regime, 2006–14

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    Figure 10.3.

    Consumer Price Index Inflation under Different Exchange Rate Regimes, 1957–2017

    (Percent)

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    Figure 10.4.

    Financial Dollarization: Foreign Exchange Deposits and Credit to the Private Sector, 1997–2017

    (Percent)

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    Figure 10.5.

    Inflation Target, Expectations, and Observed Inflation, 2006–18

    (Percent)

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    Figure 10.6.

    Over-the-Counter Daily Average Foreign Exchange Turnover, 2016

    (Percent of GDP)

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    Figure 10.7.

    MONEX Market: Structure, by Category, 2014–17

    (Percent)

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    Figure 10.8.

    MONEX Market: Share of Top Four Participants in Turnover, 2014–17 (Percent)

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    Figure 10.9.

    Decision Makers for the Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Foreign Exchange Intervention

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    Figure 10.10.

    Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Reserve Accumulation Programs: Cumulative Effect on Net International Reserves, 2010–15

    (Thousands of US dollars)

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    Figure 10.11.

    Standard Reserve Adequacy Metrics, 2014–17

    (Percent)

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    Figure 10.12.

    Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Foreign Exchange Intervention to Accumulate Reserves, 2013–18

    (Thousands of US dollars, left scale; colones per US dollar, right scale)

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    Figure 10.13.

    Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Foreign Exchange Interventions to Fulfill Nonfinancial Public Sector Needs, 2013–18

    (Thousands of US dollars, left scale; colones per US dollar, right scale)

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    Figure 10.14.

    Central Bank of Costa Rica’s Foreign Exchange Stabilization Interventions, 2013–18

    (Colones per US dollar)

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    Figure 10.1.1.

    MONEX Weighted-Average Exchange Rate, 2013–18

    (Colones per US dollar)

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    Figure 10.15.

    The Effect of Intervention on Mean Volatility of the Exchange Rate

    (Percent)

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    Figure 11.1.

    Bank of Mexico’s International Reserves and the Mexican Peso Exchange Rate, 1993–2017

    (Billions of US dollars, left scale; Mexican peso per US dollar, right scale)

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    Figure 11.2.

    Bank of Mexico’s International Reserves: Sources of Accumulation, 1996–2017

    (Billions of US dollars)

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    Figure 11.3.

    Mexican Peso to US Dollar Exchange Rate: Options Exercises, 1996–2001 and 2010–11

    (Mexican peso per US dollar)

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    Figure 11.4.

    Mexican Peso to US Dollar Exchange Rate: Minimum Price Auctions, 1997–2001 and 2008–16

    (Mexican peso per US dollar)

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    Figure 11.5.

    Mexican Peso to US Dollar Exchange Rate and Nonminimum Price US Dollar Daily Auctions, 2009 and 2015

    (Mexican peso per US dollar, left scale; millions of US dollars, right scale)

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    Figure 11.6.

    Mexican Peso and Synthetic MXN with Auction Announcements

    (Mexican peso per US dollar)

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    Figure 11.7.

    Mexican Peso and Synthetic MXN with Direct Interventions

    (Mexican peso per US dollar)

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    Figure 11.8.

    Mexican Peso and Synthetic MXN with Hedge Auctions Announcement, February 2017

    (Mexican peso per US dollar)

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    Figure 11.9.

    Mexican Peso Intraday Volatility Density Function, by Intervention

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    Figure 11.10.

    Mexican Peso Intraday Bid-Ask Spread Density Function, by Intervention Day, 2014–17

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    Figure 11.11.

    International Reserves at the End of 2009: A Country Comparison of Stocks

    (Percentage of GDP)

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    Figure 11.12.

    International Reserves and the IMF Metric, 2007–17

    (Billions of US dollars)

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    Figure 11.13.

    International Reserves and the Calvo and Others’ Metric, 1993–2017

    (Percentage of GDP)

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    Figure 11.14.

    International Reserves and Jeanne-Rancière Metric, 2007–17

    (Percentage of GDP)

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    Figure 11.15.

    Index of Foreign Exchange Market’s Operating Conditions, 2016–17

    (Five-day moving average)

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    Figure 12.1.

    Dollarization of the Banking System, 1992–2017

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    Figure 12.2.

    Net International Reserves and the Peruvian Sol/US Dollar Exchange Rate, 1992–2017

    (Billions of US dollars, left scale; Peruvian sol/US dollars, right scale)

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    Figure 12.3.

    Net Purchases of US Dollars, 1992–2017

    (Percent of GDP)

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    Figure 12.4.

    Monetary Policy Framework in Peru

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    Figure 12.5.

    External Shock Impact, Fully Floating and Leaning-Against- the-Wind Policies, and Persistent Shock

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    Figure 12.6.

    External Shock Impact, Fully Floating and Leaning-Against- the-Wind Policy, and Transitory Shock

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    Figure 12.7.

    Evolution of the Peruvian, Brazilian, and Colombian Currencies, 2002–17

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    Figure 12.8.

    Turnover of Over-the-Counter Foreign Exchange Instruments, 2016

    (Daily averages as percentage of GDP)

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    Figure 12.9.

    Net Yearly Purchases, Foreign Exchange Spot, 1998–2017

    (Percent; ratio to yearly interbank foreign exchange turnover)

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    Figure 12.10.

    Foreign Exchange Forward Net Sales Position of Commercial Banks and Adoption of Alternative Instruments, 2001–17

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    Figure 13.1.

    International Indicators for the Uruguayan Economy, 2004–18

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    Figure 13.2.

    Balance of Financial Account: Regional Comparison, 2003–16

    (Percent of GDP)

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    Figure 13.3.

    Foreign Exchange Net Purchases and Exchange Rate, 2007–17

    (Normalized data)

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    Figure 13.4.

    Sterilized and Nonsterilized Interventions, 2007–17

    (Millions of dollars)

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    Figure 13.5.

    Estimated Cost of Surplus Reserves, 2010–17

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    Figure 13.6.

    Brazilian Real, Uruguayan Peso, and US Dollar Comovements, 2007–17

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    Figure 13.1.1.

    Impulse Response Functions: Response of Exchange Rate and Expected Depreciation to Interventions

    (Standard deviations of the corresponding impulse)

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    Figure 13.2.1.

    Impulse Response Functions: Response of Exchange Rate to Interventions using Choleski Identification