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Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

List of Country Abbreviations

Argentina

ARG

Antigua and Barbuda

ATG

Australia

AUS

Belize

BLZ

Bolivia

BOL

Brazil

BRA

Canada

CAN

Chile

CHL

China

CHN

Colombia

COL

Costa Rica

CRI

Dominica

DMA

Dominican Republic

DOM

Ecuador

ECU

El Salvador

SLV

Grenada

GRD

Guatemala

GTM

Guyana

GUY

Haiti

HTI

Honduras

HND

Hungary

HUN

India

IND

Indonesia

IDN

Israel

ISR

Jamaica

JAM

Korea

KOR

Malaysia

MYS

Mexico

MEX

Nicaragua

NIC

Nigeria

NGA

Norway

NOR

Panama

PAN

Paraguay

PRY

Peru

PER

Philippines

PHL

Poland

POL

Russia

RUS

Qatar

QAT

St. Kitts and Nevis

KNA

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

VCT

Saudi Arabia

SAU

Singapore

SGP

South Africa

ZAF

Thailand

THA

Trinidad and Tobago

TTO

Turkey

TUR

United States

USA

Uruguay

URY

Venezuela

VEN

References

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New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department

IMF Working Papers

14/61

Exchange Rate Flexibility and Credit during Capital Inflow Reversals: Purgatory…not Paradise

Nicolas E. Magud and Esteban R. Vesperoni

14/60

Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?

Gustavo Adler, Marie-Louise Djigbenou, and Sebastian Sosa

14/59

Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the Cycle

Alexander Klemm

14/28

The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Chris Papageorgiou

13/251

Monetary Transmission in Brazil—Has the Credit Channel Changed?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

13/227

Sovereign Risk and Belief-Driven Fluctuations in the Euro Area

Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, André Meier, and Gernot J. Mueller

13/217

Growth Following Investment and Consumption-Driven Current Account Crises

Alexander Klemm

13/206

State-Owned Banks and Fiscal Discipline

Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and Francesco Grigoli

13/175

Financial Interconnectedness and Financial Sector Reforms in the Caribbean

Sumiko Ogawa, Joonkyu Park, Diva Singh, and Nita Thacker

13/171

What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

Yi Wu

13/145

Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Christian Johnson

13/136

The Economic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation with Debt Feedback

Marcello Estevão and Issouf Samake

13/117

Fiscal Multipliers in the ECCU

Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia, Antonio Lemus, and Mico Mrkaic

13/109

Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?

Sebastian Sosa, Evridiki Tsounta, and Hye Kim

13/103

Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms: Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall

Gustavo Adler and Nicolas Magud

13/97

Productivity or Employment: Is It a Choice?

Gustavo Andrea De Michelis, Marcello Estevão, and Beth Anne Wilson

Selected Issues Papers

Brazil

  • How Fast Can Brazil Grow?

    Shaun Roache

  • Financing Investment-Led Growth in Brazil

    Shaun Roache and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

  • Inflation in Brazil—Still Persistent?

    Shaun Roache

  • Monetary Transmission in Brazil—Has the Credit Channel Changed?

    Mercedes Garcia-Esribano

  • Public Debt Dynamics Under Brazil’s Fiscal Framework

    Joana Pereira

  • Credit in Brazil: Contribution to Growth in Recent Years

    Mercedes Garcia-Esribano and Fei Han

  • Understanding Housing Markets in Brazil: Mark II

    Heedon Kang

Canada

  • The Unconventional Energy Boom in North America: Macroeconomic Implications and Challenges for Canada

    Lusine Lusinyan, Dirk Muir, Julien Reynaud, and Soma Patra

  • Is “Dead” Money Alive? A Firm-Level Analysis of Canadian Non-Financial Listed Corporations Cash Holding and Capital Expenditure Behavior

    Ivo Krznar, Tim Mahedy, and Julien Reynaud

Chile

  • A Tale of Two Recoveries: The Post-Crisis Experience of Brazil and Chile

    Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado and Sofía Bauducco

  • Systemic Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Chile

    Nicolas Arregui and Alejandro Jara

  • What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

    Yi Wu, Diego Gianelli, Philip Liu, and Li Zeng

El Salvador

  • Assessing Potential Output

    Belen Sbrancia and Yulia Ustyugova

  • Balance of Payments Stability Assessment

    Yulia Ustyugova and Francisco Roch

  • Assessing Spillovers

    Yulia Ustyugova

  • Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

    Pablo Druck and Mario Garza

  • Implementing Basel III Standards

    Fernando Delgado

Guatemala

  • Analytical Note I. Assessing Potential Output

    Carlos Rondón

  • Analytical Note II. Spillover Analysis

    Carlos Rondón, Lennart Erickson, Yulia Ustyugova, and Eugenio Cerutti

  • Analytical Note III. Fiscal Sustainability Assessment

    Yulia Ustyugova

  • Analytical Note IV. Balance Sheets

    Stephanie Medina Cas

  • Analytical Note V. Monetary Policy Stance

    Carlos Rondón

  • Analytical Note VI. Basel III

    Fernando Delgado and Mynor Meza

Haiti

  • Optimizing Fiscal Policy for High and Inclusive Growth in Haiti

    Elva Bova

  • A Renewed Public Investment Policy in Support of Growth and Poverty Reduction

    Abdel Bessaha

Mexico

  • Mexico—Reforms to the Fiscal Framework,

    Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea Esteban Vesperoni, and Jeremy Zook

  • Towards a Structural Fiscal Balance Measure for Mexico

    Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea, Esteban Vesperoni, and Jeremy Zook

  • Credit Risk Modeling—The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in the Mexican Banking System

    Roberto Guimaraes-Filho

Paraguay

  • Effective Banking Sector Spreads in Paraguay

    Kevin Ross and Viviana Garay

  • A Path to Financial De-dollarization in Paraguay

    Juan F. Yépez

Peru

  • Peru: Fiscal Framework Alternatives for a Resource Rich Country

    Svetlana Vtyurina

  • Resisting the Pressures from Capital Flows: Are Foreign Exchange Interventions Effective?

    Melesse Tashu

  • China’s Spillovers to Peru: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

    Fei Han and Juan Alonso Peschiera Perez-Salmon

Suriname

  • Constructing A High-Frequency Economic Growth Indicator for Suriname

    Jochen Schmittmann

  • Suriname’s Exposure to Gold Price Fluctuations

    Qiaoe Chen, Daniel Kanda, Mario Mansilla, and Jochen Schmittmann

  • Monetary and Financial System of Suriname

    Qiaoe Chen

  • The Labor Market in Suriname

    Qiaoe Chen, Daniel Kanda, Mario Mansilla, and Jochen Schmittmann

  • Fiscal Sustainability and Natural Resource Wealth for Suriname

    Mario Mansilla and Daniel Kanda

United States

  • The U.S. Manufacturing Recovery: Uptick or Renaissance?

    Oya Celasun, Gabriel Di Bella, Tim Mahedy, and Chris Papageorgiou

  • Macroeconomic Implications of the U.S. Energy Boom

    Ben Hunt, Martin Sommer, Gabriel Di Bella, Madelyn Estrada, Akito Matsumoto, and Dirk Muir

  • Risky Business: The Uncertainty in U.S. Health Care Spending

    Deniz Igan, Kenichiro Kashiwase, and Baoping Shang

  • Are U.S. Small Businesses Credit Constrained?

    Francesco Columba

  • Exiting From Unconvential Monetary Policy: Potential Challenges and Risks

    Rebecca McCaughrin and Tao Wu

Uruguay

  • Why are Inflation and Inflation Expectations Above Target in Uruguay?

    Camilo Tovar

  • FDI in Uruguay: Recent Trends and Determinants

    Camila Perez and Natalia Melgar

  • Agricultural Land Prices—A Channel in the Transmission of Global Commodity Price Shocks on Economic Activity

    Juan F. Yépez

  • Competitiveness Trends in Uruguay

    Garth P. Nicholls

  • Fiscal Policy and Inflation in Uruguay: Exploring the Nexus

    Camilo E. Tovar

  • The Fiscal Regime for Large-Scale Mining in Uruguay

    Victor Kitange

  • Collapse
  • Expand
  • Aaronson, S., B. Fallick, A. Figura, J. Pingle, and W. Wascher, 2006, “The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply,Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 69154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Adler, G., M. L. Djigbenou, and S. Sosa, 2014, “Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?IMF Working Paper No. 14/60 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Adler, G., and S. Sosa, 2011, “Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom,IMF Working Paper No. 11/283 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Adler, G., and S. Sosa, 2014, “Intraregional Spillovers in South America: Is Brazil Systemic After All?The World Economy, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp. 456480.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alesina, A., F. Campante, and G. Tabellini, 2008, “Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 10061036.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alper, C. E., 2006, “U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and Emerging Markets Sovereign Spreads,2007 AEA Conference Papers. www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2007/0107_1300_0102.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arellano, M., and O. Bover, 1995, “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Component Models,Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 68, No. 1, pp. 2952.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arora, V., and M. Cerisola, 2001, “How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, pp. 474498.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arvanitis, A., H. Faruqee, P. N’Diaye, and R. Sahay, forthcoming, “Understanding Emerging Market Volatility and Policy Responses,IMF Staff Discussion Note (Washington).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bellas, D., M. G. Papaioannou, and I. Petrova, 2010, “Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs. Financial Stress,IMF Working Paper No. 10/281 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Camba-Mendez, G., 2012, “Conditional Forecasts on SVAR Models Using the Kalman Filter,Economics Letters, Vol. 115, No. 3, pp. 376378.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cashin, P., L. F. Céspedes, and R. Sahay, 2004, “Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate,Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 75, No. 1, pp. 239268.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Catão, L., and B. Sutton, 2002, “Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility,IMF Working Paper No. 02/149 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cespedes, L. F., and, A. Velasco, 2011, “Was this Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics,BIS Working Papers No. 365 (Basel: Bank for International Settlements).

    • Search Google Scholar
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  • Chen, Y., and K. Rogoff, 2003, “Commodity Currencies,Journal of International Economics, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp. 133160.

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