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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
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FM; term id; debt; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; statistics manual; middle-income economy; value-added tax; reform agenda; Fiscal stance; Digitalization; Global; Africa; Middle East; Asia and Pacific; North Africa
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Abstract

Country name

Country Abbreviations

Code

Country name
AFG

Afghanistan
AGO

Angola
ALB

Albania
ARE

United Arab Emirates
ARG

Argentina
ARM

Armenia
ATG

Antigua and Barbuda
AUS

Australia
AUT

Austria
AZE

Azerbaijan
BDI

Burundi
BEL

Belgium
BEN

Benin
BFA

Burkina Faso
BGD

Bangladesh
BGR

Bulgaria
BHR

Bahrain
BHS

Bahamas, Te
BIH

Bosnia and Herzegovina
BLR

Belarus
BLZ

Belize
BOL

Bolivia
BRA

Brazil
BRB

Barbados
BRN

Brunei Darussalam
BTN

Bhutan
BWA

Botswana
CAF

Central African Republic
CAN

Canada
CHE

Switzerland
CHL

Chile
CHN

China
CIV

Côte d’Ivoire
CMR

Cameroon
COD

Congo, Democratic Republic of the
COG

Congo, Republic of
COL

Colombia
COM

Comoros
CPV

Cabo Verde
CRI

Costa Rica
CYP

Cyprus
CZE

Czech Republic
DEU

Germany
DJI

Djibouti
DMA

Dominica
DNK

Denmark
DOM

Dominican Republic
DZA

Algeria
ECU

Ecuador
EGY

Egypt
ERI

Eritrea
ESP

Spain
EST

Estonia
ETH

Ethiopia
FIN

Finland
FJI

Fiji
FRA

France
FSM

Micronesia, Federated States of
GAB

Gabon
GBR

United Kingdom
GEO

Georgia
GHA

Ghana
GIN

Guinea
GMB

Gambia, Te
GNB

Guinea-Bissau
GNQ

Equatorial Guinea
GRC

Greece
GRD

Grenada
GTM

Guatemala
GUY

Guyana
HKG

Hong Kong SAR
HND

Honduras
HRV

Croatia
HTI

Haiti
HUN

Hungary
IDN

Indonesia
IND

India
IRL

Ireland
IRN

Iran
IRQ

Iraq
ISL

Iceland
ISR

Israel
ITA

Italy
JAM

Jamaica
JOR

Jordan
JPN

Japan
KAZ

Kazakhstan
KEN

Kenya
KGZ

Kyrgyz Republic
KHM

Cambodia
KIR

Kiribati
KNA

St. Kitts and Nevis
KOR

Korea
KWT

Kuwait
LAO

Lao P.D.R.
LBN

Lebanon
LBR

Liberia
LBY

Libya
LCA

St. Lucia
LKA

Sri Lanka
LSO

Lesotho
LTU

Lithuania
LUX

Luxembourg
LVA

Latvia
MAR

Morocco
MDA

Moldova
MDG

Madagascar
MDV

Maldives
MEX

Mexico
MHL

Marshall Islands
MKD

Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic of
MLI

Mali
MLT

Malta
MMR

Myanmar
MNE

Montenegro
MNG

Mongolia
MOZ

Mozambique
MRT

Mauritania
MUS

Mauritius
MWI

Malawi
MYS

Malaysia
NAM

Namibia
NER

Niger
NGA

Nigeria
NIC

Nicaragua
NLD

Netherlands, Te
NOR

Norway
NPL

Nepal
NZL

New Zealand
OMN

Oman
PAK

Pakistan
PAN

Panama
PER

Peru
PHL

Philippines
PLW

Palau
PNG

Papua New Guinea
POL

Poland
PRT

Portugal
PRY

Paraguay
QAT

Qatar
ROU

Romania
RUS

Russia
RWA

Rwanda
SAU

Saudi Arabia
SDN

Sudan
SEN

Senegal
SGP

Singapore
SLB

Solomon Islands
SLE

Sierra Leone
SLV

El Salvador
SMR

San Marino
SOM

Somalia
SRB

Serbia
STP

São Tomé and Príncipe
SUR

Suriname
SVK

Slovak Republic
SVN

Slovenia
SWE

Sweden
SWZ

Swaziland
SYC

Seychelles
SYR

Syria
TCD

Chad
TGO

Togo
THA

Thailand
TJK

Tajikistan
TKM

Turkmenistan
TLS

Timor-Leste
TON

Tonga
TTO

Trinidad and Tobago
TUN

Tunisia
TUR

Turkey
TUV

Tuvalu
TWN

Taiwan Province of China
TZA

Tanzania
UGA

Uganda
UKR

Ukraine
URY

Uruguay
USA

United States
UZB

Uzbekistan
VCT

St. Vincent and the Grenadines
VEN

Venezuela
VNM

Vietnam
VUT

Vanuatu
WSM

Samoa
YEM

Yemen
ZAF

South Africa
ZMB

Zambia
ZWE

Zimbabwe

Glossary

Automatic stabilizers Revenue and some expenditure items that adjust automatically to cyclical changes in the economy—for example, as output falls, revenue collections decline and unemployment benefits increase, which “automatically” provides demand support.

Contingent liabilities Obligations that are not explicitly recorded on government balance sheets and that arise only in the event of a particular discrete situation, such as a crisis.

Countercyclical fiscal policy Active changes in expenditure and tax policies to smooth the economic cycle (by contrast with the operation of automatic stabilizers); for instance, by cutting taxes or raising expenditures during an economic downturn.

Coverage of public benefits Share of individuals or households of a particular socioeconomic group who receive a public benefit.

Cyclically adjusted balance (CAB) Difference between the overall balance and the automatic stabilizers; equivalently, an estimate of the fiscal balance that would apply under current policies if output were equal to potential.

Cyclically adjusted primary balance (CAPB) Cyclically adjusted balance excluding net interest payments (interest expenditure minus interest revenue).

Fiscal buffer Fiscal space created by saving budgetary resources and reducing public debt in good times.

Fiscal multiplier Measures the short-term impact of discretionary fiscal policy on output. Usually defined as the ratio of a change in output to an exogenous change in the fiscal deficit with respect to their respective baselines.

Fiscal space The room to raise spending or lower taxes relative to a preexisting baseline, without endangering market access and debt sustainability.

Fiscal stabilization Contribution of fiscal policy to output stability through its impact on aggregate demand.

Fiscal stabilization coefficient (FISCO) FISCO measures how much a country’s overall budget balance changes in response to a change in output. The higher the FISCO, the more countercyclical the conduct of fiscal policy. Technical details on FISCO estimation are in Annex 2.1 of the April 2015 Fiscal Monitor and Furceri and Jalles (2018).

General government All government units and all nonmarket, nonprofit institutions that are controlled and mainly financed by government units comprising the central, state, and local governments; includes social security funds and does not include public corporations or quasicorporations.

Gini index Measures the extent to which the distribution of income among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 1 implies perfect inequality.

Gross debt All liabilities that require future payment of interest and/or principal by the debtor to the creditor. This includes debt liabilities in the form of special drawing rights, currency, and deposits; debt securities; loans; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee programs; and other accounts payable. (See the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual and Public Sector Debt Statistics Manual.) The term “public debt” is used in the Fiscal Monitor, for simplicity, as synonymous with gross debt of the general government, unless specified otherwise. (Strictly speaking, public debt refers to the debt of the public sector as a whole, which includes financial and nonfinancial public enterprises and the central bank.)

Income insurance Publicly provided income-support mechanisms and individual schemes to insure oneself against negative income shocks.

Leakage in public income-support programs Individuals who receive public income-support programs for which they are not eligible.

Net debt Gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. These financial assets are monetary gold and special drawing rights; currency and deposits; debt securities; loans, insurance, pensions, and standardized guarantee programs; and other accounts receivable. In some countries, the reported net debt can deviate from this definition based on available information and national fiscal accounting practices.

Nonfinancial public sector General government plus nonfinancial public corporations.

Output gap Deviation of actual from potential GDP, in percent of potential GDP.

Overall fiscal balance (also “headline” fiscal balance) Net lending and borrowing, defined as the difference between revenue and total expenditure, using the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). Does not include policy lending. For some countries, the overall balance is still based on the GFSM 1986, which defines it as total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Permanent establishment A fixed place of business where the business of an enterprise is wholly or partly carried out.

Potential output Estimate of the level of GDP that can be reached if the economy’s resources are fully employed.

Primary balance Overall balance excluding net interest payment (interest expenditure minus interest revenue).

Procyclical fiscal policy Fiscal policy is said to be “procyclical” when it amplifies the economic cycle, for instance by raising taxes or cutting expenditures during an economic downturn.

Progressive (or regressive) taxes Taxes that feature an average tax rate that rises (or falls) with income.

Public debt See gross debt.

Structural fiscal balance Extension of the cyclically adjusted balance that also corrects for other nonrecurrent effects that go beyond the cycle, such as one-of operations and other factors whose cyclical fluctuations do not coincide with the output cycle (for instance, asset and commodity prices and output composition effects).

Take-up of public income-support programs Eligible population of individuals who receive public income-support programs.

Methodological and Statistical Appendix

This appendix comprises four sections. “Data and Conventions” provides a general description of the data and conventions used to calculate economy group composites. “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” summarizes the country-specific assumptions underlying the estimates and projections for 2018–19 and the medium-term scenario for 2020–23. “Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data” summarizes the classification of countries in the various groups presented in the Fiscal Monitor and provides details on the coverage and accounting practices underlying each country’s Fiscal Monitor data. Statistical tables on key fiscal variables complete the appendix. Data in these tables have been compiled on the basis of information available through April 2, 2018.

Data and Conventions

Country-specific data and projections for key fiscal variables are based on the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, unless indicated otherwise, and compiled by the IMF staff. Historical data and projections are based on information gathered by IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situation in each country; they are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available. Structural breaks in data may be adjusted to produce smooth series through splicing and other techniques. IMF staff estimates serve as proxies when complete information is unavailable. As a result, Fiscal Monitor data can differ from official data in other sources, including the IMF’s International Financial Statistics.

Sources for fiscal data and projections not covered by the WEO database are listed in the respective tables and figures.

The country classification in the Fiscal Monitor divides the world into three major groups: 35 advanced economies, 40 emerging market and middle-income economies, and 40 low-income developing countries. The seven largest advanced economies as measured by GDP (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) constitute the subgroup of major advanced economies, often referred to as the Group of Seven (G7). The members of the euro area are also distinguished as a subgroup. Composite data shown in the tables for the euro area cover the current members for all years, even though membership has increased over time. Data for most European Union (EU) member countries have been revised after the new European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010) was adopted. Low-income developing countries are those that have per capita income levels below a certain threshold (currently set at $2,700 in 2016 as measured by the World Bank’s Atlas method), structural features consistent with limited development and structural transformation, and external financial linkages insufficiently close to be widely seen as emerging market economies. Zimbabwe is included in the group. Emerging market and middle-income economies include those that are not classified as advanced economies or low-income developing countries. See Table A, “Economy Groupings,” for more details.

Table A.

Economy Groupings

The following groupings of countries are used in the Fiscal Monitor.

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Note: Emerging market and developing economies include emerging market and middle-income economies as well as low-income developing countries.

Does not include EU aggregate.

Most fiscal data refer to the general government for advanced economies; for emerging markets and developing economies, data often refer only to the central government or budgetary central government (for specific details, see Tables B–D). All fiscal data refer to calendar years, except in the cases of Bangladesh, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, and Thailand, for which they refer to the fiscal year.

Table B.

Advanced Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds; TG = territorial governments. Accounting standard: C = cash; A = accrual.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Nominal = debt securities are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. Face = undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. Current market = debt securities are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies of their market prices.

Historical data until 2012 are reported on an accrual basis, as general government cash data are not available for years that preceded the IMF program.

Table C.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; GG = general government; LG = local governments; MPC = monetary public corporations, including central bank; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting practice: C = cash; NC = noncash.

1n many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Nominal = debt securities are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. Face = undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. Current market = debt securities are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies of their market prices.

Gross debt refers to general government public debt, including publicly guaranteed debt.

Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.

Revenue is recorded on a cash basis and expenditure on an accrual basis.

Coverage for South Africa is a proxy for general government. It includes the national and provincial governments and certain public entities, while local governments are only partly covered, through the transfers to them.

Data for Thailand do not include the debt of specialized financial institutions (SFIs/NMPC) without government guarantee.

Gross debt covers banking system claims only.

The fiscal accounts for 2010–22 correspond to the budgetary central government and Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), whereas the fiscal accounts for years before 2010 correspond to the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including PDVSA), Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS—social security), and Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE—deposit insurance).

Table D.

Low-Income Developing Countries: Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Monitor Data

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Note: Coverage: BCG = budgetary central government; CG = central government; CPS = combined public sector; EA = extrabudgetary units; FC = financial public corporations; GG = general government; LG = local governments; MPC = monetary public corporations, including central bank; NC = noncash; NFPC = nonfinancial public corporations; NFPS = nonfinancial public sector; NMPC = nonmonetary financial public corporations; PS = public sector; SG = state governments; SS = social security funds. Accounting standard: C = cash; NC = noncash; CB = commitments basis accounting; Mixed = combination of accrual and cash accounting.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual2001. The concept of overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (-) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

Nominal = debt securities are valued at their nominal values, that is, the nominal value of a debt instrument at any moment in time is the amount that the debtor owes to the creditor. Face = undiscounted amount of principal to be repaid at (or before) maturity. The use of face value as a proxy for nominal value in measuring the gross debt position can result in an inconsistent approach across all instruments and is not recommended, unless nominal and market values are not available. Current market = debt securities are valued at market prices; insurance, pension, and standardized guarantee schemes are valued according to principles that are equivalent to market valuation; and all other debt instruments are valued at nominal prices, which are considered to be the best generally available proxies of their market prices.

Lao RD.R.’s fiscal spending includes capital spending by local governments financed by loans provided by the central bank.

Overall and primary balances in 2012 are based on the monetary statistics and are different from the balances calculated from expenditure and revenue data.

Uzbekistan’slisting includes the Fund for Reconstruction and Development.

Composite data for country groups are weighted averages of individual-country data, unless specified otherwise. Data are weighted by annual nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates as a share of the group GDP.

For the purpose of data reporting in the Fiscal Monitor, the Group of Twenty (G20) member aggregate refers to the 19 country members and does not include the European Union.

In many countries, fiscal data follow the IMF’s 2001 Government Finance Statistics Manual (GFSM 2001). The overall fiscal balance refers to net lending (+) and borrowing (–) of the general government. In some cases, however, the overall balance refers to total revenue and grants minus total expenditure and net lending.

The fiscal gross and net debt data reported in the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from official data sources and IMF staff estimates. While attempts are made to align gross and net debt data with the definitions in the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual, as a result of data limitations or specific country circumstances, these data can sometimes deviate from the formal definitions. Although every effort is made to ensure the debt data are relevant and internationally comparable, differences in both sectoral and instrument coverage mean that the data are not universally comparable. As more information becomes available, changes in either data sources or instrument coverage can give rise to data revisions that can sometimes be substantial.

The term “country” as used in the Fiscal Monitor does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but whose statistical data are maintained separately and independently.

Argentina: Total expenditure and the overall balance account for cash interest only. The primary balance excludes profit transfers from the central bank of Argentina. Interest expenditure is net of interest income from the social security administration. For GDP and consumer price index (CPI) data, see the “Country Notes” section in the Statistical Appendix of the April 2018 WEO.

Australia: For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) (Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Bangladesh: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Brazil: General government data refer to the nonfinancial public sector—which includes the federal, state, and local governments, as well as public enterprises (excluding Petrobras and Eletrobras)—and are consolidated with those for the sovereign wealth fund. Revenue and expenditures of federal public enterprises are added in full to the respective aggregates. Transfers and withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund do not affect the primary balance. Disaggregated data on gross interest payments and interest receipts are available from 2003 only. Before 2003, total revenue of the general government excludes interest receipts; total expenditure of the general government includes net interest payments. Gross public debt includes the Treasury bills on the central bank’s balance sheet, including those not used under repurchase agreements. Net public debt consolidates general government and central bank debt. The national definition of nonfinancial public sector gross debt excludes government securities held by the central bank, except the stock of Treasury securities used for monetary policy purposes by the central bank (those pledged as security reverse repurchase agreement operations). According to this national definition, gross debt amounted to 74.0 percent of GDP at the end of 2017.

Canada: For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Chile: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.

China: Public debt data include central government debt as reported by the Ministry of Finance, explicit local government debt, and shares—less than 19 percent, according to the National Audit Office estimate—of contingent liabilities the government may incur. IMF staff estimates exclude central government debt issued for the China Railway Corporation. Relative to the authorities’ definition, consolidated general government net borrowing includes (1) transfers to and from stabilization funds, (2) state-administered state-owned enterprise funds and social security contributions and expenses, and (3) off-budget spending by local governments. Defcit numbers do not include some expenditure items, mostly infrastructure investment financed of budget through land sales and local government financing vehicles. Fiscal balances are not consistent with reported debt because no time series of data in line with the National Audit Office debt definition is published officially.

Colombia: Gross public debt refers to the combined public sector, including Ecopetrol and excluding Banco de la República’s outstanding external debt.

Egypt: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Greece: General government gross debt includes short-term debt and loans of state-owned enterprises.

Haiti: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Data are on a fiscal year basis. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for land revenue and investment income. For cross-country comparability, gross and net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

India: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Ireland: General government balances between 2009 and 2012 reflect the impact of banking sector support. Fiscal balance estimates excluding these measures are –11.4 percent of GDP for 2009, –10.9 percent of GDP for 2010, –8.6 percent of GDP for 2011, and –7.9 percent of GDP for 2012. For 2015, if the conversion of government’s remaining preference shares to ordinary shares in one bank were excluded, the fiscal balance would be –1.1 percent of GDP. Cyclically adjusted balances reported in Tables A3 and A4 exclude financial sector support measures. Ireland’s 2015 national accounts were revised as a result of restructuring and relocation of multinational companies, which resulted in a level shift of nominal and real GDP. For more information, see “National Income and Expenditure Annual Results 2015,” at http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/nie/nationalincomeandexpenditureannualresults2015/.

Japan: Gross debt is on an unconsolidated basis.

Latvia: The fiscal deficit includes bank restructuring costs and thus is higher than the deficit in official statistics.

Mexico: General government refers to the central government, social security, public enterprises, development banks, the national insurance corporation, and the National Infrastructure Fund, but excludes subnational governments.

Norway: Cyclically adjusted balances correspond to the cyclically adjusted non-oil overall or primary balance. These variables are in percent of non-oil potential GDP.

Pakistan: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Peru: Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for commodity price developments.

Singapore: Data are on a fiscal year basis. Historical fiscal data have been revised to reflect the migration to GFSM 2001, which entailed some classification changes.

Spain: Overall and primary balances include financial sector support measures estimated to be –0.1 percent of GDP for 2010, 0.3 percent of GDP for 2011, 3.7 percent of GDP for 2012, 0.3 percent of GDP for 2013, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2014, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2015, 0.2 percent of GDP for 2016, 0.1 percent of GDP for 2017, and 0.0 percent of GDP for 2018.

Sweden: Cyclically adjusted balances take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: Data submissions at the cantonal and commune level are received with a long and variable lag and are subject to sizable revisions. Cyclically adjusted balances include adjustments for extraordinary operations related to the banking sector.

Thailand: Data are on a fiscal year basis.

Turkey: Information on the general government balance, primary balance, and cyclically adjusted primary balance differs from that in the authorities’ official statistics or country reports, which include net lending and privatization receipts.

United States: Cyclically adjusted balances exclude financial sector support estimated at 2.4 percent of potential GDP for 2009, 0.3 percent of potential GDP for 2010, 0.2 percent of potential GDP for 2011, 0.1 percent of potential GDP for 2012, and 0.0 percent of potential GDP for 2013. For crosscountry comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditure under the 2008 SNA adopted by the United States, but this is not true for countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In addition, gross and net debt levels reported by the BEA and national statistical agencies for other countries that have adopted the 2008 SNA (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Uruguay: Data are for the consolidated public sector, which includes the nonfinancial public sector (as presented in the authorities’ budget documentation), local governments, Banco Central del Uruguay, and Banco de Seguros del Estado. In particular, Uruguay is one of the few countries in the sample for which public debt includes the debt of the central bank, which increases recorded public sector gross debt.

Venezuela: Fiscal accounts for 2010–23 correspond to the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA). Fiscal accounts before 2010 correspond to the budgetary central government, public enterprises (including PDVSA), Instituto Venezolano de los Seguros Sociales (IVSS—social security), and Fondo de Garantía de Depósitos y Protección Bancaria (FOGADE—deposit insurance).

Fiscal Policy Assumptions

Historical data and projections of key fiscal aggregates are in line with those of the April 2018 WEO, unless noted otherwise. For underlying assumptions other than on fiscal policy, see the April 2018 WEO.

Short-term fiscal policy assumptions are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions and projected fiscal outturns. Medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged likely to be implemented. When the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged structural primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise.

Argentina: Fiscal projections are based on the available information regarding budget outturn and budget plans for the federal and provincial governments, fiscal measures announced by the authorities, and on IMF staff macroeconomic projections.

Australia: Fiscal projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the fiscal year 2017/18 budgets of the Commonwealth and States and Territories; the Commonwealth’s 2017 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook and Updates by States and Territories; and the IMF staff’s estimates.

Austria: Fiscal projections are based on data from Statistics Austria, the authorities’ projections, and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Belgium: Projections are based on the 2017–20 Stability Programme and other available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for the IMF staff’s assumptions.

Brazil: Fiscal projections for the end of 2018 take into account budget performance through January, 2018, and the deficit target approved in the budget law.

Cambodia: Historical fiscal and monetary data are from the Cambodian authorities. Projections are based on the IMF staff’s assumptions after discussions with the authorities.

Canada: Projections use the baseline forecasts in the 2018 federal budget and the latest provincial budget updates as available. The IMF staff makes some adjustments to these forecasts, including for differences in macroeconomic projections. The IMF staff’s forecast also incorporates the most recent data releases from Statistics Canada’s Canadian System of National Economic Accounts, including federal, provincial, and territorial budgetary outturns through the fourth quarter of 2017.

Chile: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget projections, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s projections for GDP and copper prices.

China: Projections assume that the pace of fiscal consolidation is likely to be gradual, reflecting reforms to strengthen social safety nets and the social security system announced as part of the Third Plenum reform agenda.

Croatia: Projections are based on the macroeconomic framework and the authorities’ medium-term fiscal guidelines.

Cyprus: Projections are on accrual basis based on the IMF staff’s assessment of budget and fiscal measures and on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions.

Czech Republic: Projections are based on the authorities’ budget forecast for 2017 with adjustments for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections. Projections for 2018 onward are based on the country’s Convergence Programme.

Denmark: Estimates for 2016 are aligned with the latest official budget estimates and the underlying economic projections, adjusted where appropriate for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions. For 2017–18, the projections incorporate key features of the medium-term fiscal plan as embodied in the authorities’ 2017 Convergence Programme submitted to the European Union and 2018 budget.

Estonia: Fiscal projections are on an accrual basis and are based on the authorities’ 2017 budget.

Finland: Projections are based on the authorities’ announced policies, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macro-economic scenario.

France: Projections for 2017 reflect the budget law and cancelation of spending taken in July 2017. For 2018–22, they are based on the multiyear budget and the 2018 budget adjusted for differences in assumptions on macro and financial variables, and revenue projections. Historical fiscal data reflect the May and September 2017 revisions and update of the fiscal accounts, debt data, and national accounts for 2014 and 2015.

Germany: The IMF staff’s projections for 2017 and beyond are based on the 2018 Draft Budgetary Plan, adjusted for the differences in the IMF staff’s macroeconomic framework and assumptions concerning revenue elasticities. The estimate of gross debt includes portfolios of impaired assets and noncore business transferred to institutions that are winding up, as well as other financial sector and EU support operations.

Greece: Greece’s primary balance estimates for 2016 are based on preliminary excessive deficit procedure (EDP) data on an accrual basis (ESA 2010) provided by the National Statistical Service (ELSTAT) as of October 23, 2017. Fiscal data since 2010 are adjusted in line with program definition.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal projections on expenditure.

Hungary: Fiscal projections include IMF staff projections of the macroeconomic framework and of the impact of recent legislative measures, as well as fiscal policy plans announced in the 2019 budget.

India: Historical data are based on budgetary execution data. Projections are based on available information on the authorities’ fiscal plans, with adjustments for IMF staff assumptions. Subnational data are incorporated with a lag of up to two years; general government data are thus finalized well after central government data. IMF and Indian presentations differ, particularly regarding divestment and license auction proceeds, net versus gross recording of revenues in certain minor categories, and some public sector lending.

Indonesia: IMF projections are based on moderate tax policy and administration reforms, fuel subsidy pricing reforms introduced in January 2015, and a gradual increase in social and capital spending over the medium term in line with fiscal space.

Ireland: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s Budget 2018.

Israel: Historical data are based on Government Finance Statistics data prepared by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The central government deficit is assumed to remain at the current ceiling level of 2.9 percent of GDP throughout the projection period, rather than declining in line with medium-term fiscal targets, consistent with long experience of revisions to those targets.

Italy: IMF staff estimates and projections are based on the fiscal plans included in the government’s 2018 draft budget plan and September 2017 Update to the Economic and Financial Document.

Japan: The projections include fiscal measures already announced by the government, including the consumption tax hike in October 2019.

Kazakhstan: Fiscal projections are based on the Budget Code and IMF staff projections.

Korea: The medium-term forecast incorporates the government’s announced medium-term consolidation path. The series on general government debt does not include nonmarket nonprofit institutions.

Libya: Against the background of a civil war and weak capacities, the reliability of Libya’s data, especially medium-term projections, is low.

Malaysia: Projections are based on data provided by the Ministry of Finance for the 2018 Article IV Consultation.

Malta: Projections are based on the authorities’ latest Stability Programme Update and budget documents, adjusted for the IMF staff’s macroeconomic and other assumptions.

Mexico: Fiscal projections for 2018 are broadly in line with the approved budget; projections for 2019 onward assume compliance with rules established in the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

Moldova: Fiscal projections are based on various bases and growth rates for GDP, consumption, imports, wages, and energy prices and on demographic changes.

Myanmar: Fiscal projections are based on budget numbers, discussions with the authorities, and IMF staff adjustments.

Netherlands: Fiscal projections for the period 2017–23 are based on the authorities’ Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis budget projections, after differences in macroeconomic assumptions are adjusted for. Historical data were revised after the Central Bureau of Statistics released revised macro data in June 2014 after adopting the ESA 2010 and revising data sources.

New Zealand: Fiscal projections are based on the authorities’ fiscal year 2017/18 budget and half-year economic and fiscal update, and on IMF staff estimates.

Norway: Fiscal projections are based on the latest 2018 revised budget.

Philippines: Fiscal projections assume that the authorities’ fiscal deficit target for the national government will be achieved in 2018 and beyond. Revenue projections reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic assumptions and incorporate anticipated revenue-enhancing tax reforms. Expenditure projections are based on budgeted figures, institutional arrangements, current data, and fiscal space in each year.

Poland: Data are based on ESA 2010 beginning in 2010. Data before 2010 are based on ESA 95. Projections are based on the 2016 budget and take into account the effects of the 2014 pension changes.

Portugal: Projections for the current year are based on the authorities’ approved budget, adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s macroeconomic forecast. Projections thereafter are based on the assumption of unchanged policies.

Romania: Fiscal projections for 2018 reflect the adopted budget measures as of February 2018 (including the increases in wages and pensions, and changes to labor taxation). Projections for 2019 reflect the full effect of the 2018 budget measures and the impact of the unified wage law. Apart from the impact of the unified wage law which will be gradually implemented until 2022, no additional policy changes are assumed beyond 2019.

Russia: Projections for 2018–2020 are IMF staff estimates based on the authorities’ budget. Projections for 2021–23 are based on the new oil-price rule, with adjustments by IMF staff.

Saudi Arabia: Staff baseline projections of total government revenues reflect the impact of announced policies in the 2018 Budget. Oil revenues are based on WEO baseline oil prices and the assumption that Saudi Arabia continues to meet its commitments under the OPEC+ agreement. Expenditure projections take the 2018 budget as a starting point and reflect IMF staff estimates of the effects of the latest changes in policies and economic developments. Expenditures in 2018 include the allowances and other measures announced in the Royal Decree for one year in January 2018.

Singapore: For fiscal years 2018/19, projections are based on budget numbers. For the remaining projection period, the IMF staff assumes unchanged policies.

Slovak Republic: Projections for 2015 take into account developments in the first three quarters of the year and the authorities’ new projections presented in the budget for 2016. Projections for 2016 consider the authorities’ 2016 budget. Projections for 2017 and beyond reflect a no-policy-change scenario.

Spain: For 2017, fiscal data are IMF staff projections, reflecting the cash outturn through November. For 2018 and beyond, fiscal projections are based on the information specified in the government’s 2018 Budgetary Plan, and on the IMF staff’s macroeconomic projections.

Sri Lanka: Projections are based on the authorities’ medium-term fiscal framework and the revenue measures proposed.

Sweden: Fiscal projections take into account the authorities’ projections based on the 2018 Budget. The effect of cyclical developments on the fiscal accounts is calculated using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s 2005 elasticity to take into account output and employment gaps.

Switzerland: The projections assume that fiscal policy is adjusted as necessary to keep fiscal balances in line with the requirements of the country’s fiscal rules.

Thailand: For the projection period, the IMF staff assumes a relatively modest and temporary increase in public infrastructure investment, partly reflecting 50 percent implementation of planned infrastructure by SOEs and low implementation rates by the general government.

Turkey: The fiscal projections for 2018 are based on the authorities’ Medium-Term Plan (MTP) 2018–20, with adjustments for additionally announced fiscal measures and staff’s higher inflation forecast. For the medium term, the fiscal projections assume a more gradual fiscal consolidation than envisaged in the MTP.

United Kingdom: Fiscal projections are based on the country’s November 2017 Budget and the March 2018 update, with expenditure projections based on the budgeted nominal values and with revenue projections adjusted for differences between the IMF staff’s forecasts of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP growth and inflation) and the forecasts of these variables assumed in the authorities’ fiscal projections. The IMF staff’s data exclude public sector banks and the effect of transferring assets from the Royal Mail Pension Plan to the public sector in April 2012. Real government consumption and investment are part of the real GDP path, which, according to the IMF staff, may or may not be the same as projected by the UK Office for Budget Responsibility.

United States: Fiscal projections are based on the June 2017 Congressional Budget Office baseline, adjusted for the IMF staff’s policy and macroeconomic assumptions. Projections incorporate the effects of tax reform (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, signed into law end of 2017) as well as the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 passed in February 2018. Finally, fiscal projections are adjusted to reflect the IMF staff’s forecasts for key macroeconomic and financial variables and different accounting treatment of financial sector support and defined-benefit pension plans, and are converted to a general government basis. Data are compiled using SNA 2008, and when translated into government finance statistics, this is in accordance with GFSM 2014. Because of data limitations, most series begin in 2001.

Venezuela: Projecting the economic outlook in Venezuela, including assessing past and current economic developments as the basis for the projections, is complicated by the lack of discussions with the authorities (the last Article IV consultation took place in 2004), long intervals in receiving data with information gaps, incomplete provision of information, and difficulties in interpreting certain reported economic indicators given economic developments. The fiscal accounts include the budgetary central government and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), and data for 2016–23 are IMF staff estimates. Revenue includes the IMF staff’s estimate of foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying US dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system) and excludes IMF staff’s estimate of revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank. The effects of hyperinflation and the noted data gaps mean that IMF staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rises in line with IMF staff’s projection of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using IMF staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year. Revenue includes the IMF staff’s estimated foreign exchange profits transferred from the central bank to the government (buying US dollars at the most appreciated rate and selling at more depreciated rates in a multitier exchange rate system) and excludes the IMF staff’s estimated revenue from PDVSA’s sale of PetroCaribe assets to the central bank. The effects of hyperinflation and the noted data gaps mean that staff’s projected macroeconomic indicators need to be interpreted with caution. For example, nominal GDP is estimated assuming the GDP deflator rising in line with the staff’s projection of average inflation. Public external debt in relation to GDP is projected using the staff’s estimate of the average exchange rate for the year.

Vietnam: Fiscal data for 2015–17 are the authorities’ estimate. From 2018 onward, fiscal data are based on IMF staff projections.

Yemen: Hydrocarbon revenue projections are based on World Economic Outlook assumptions for oil and gas prices (the authorities use $55 a barrel) and authorities’ projections of production of oil and gas. Nonhydrocarbon revenues largely reflect authorities’ projections, as do most of the expenditure categories, with the exception of fuel subsidies, which are projected based on the World Economic Outlook price consistent with revenues. Monetary projections are based on key macroeconomic assumptions about the growth rate of broad money, credit to the private sector, and deposit growth

Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data

Table A1.

Advanced Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B; G7 = Group of Seven; G20 = Group of Twenty.

Data include financial sector support. For Cyprus, 2014 and 2015 balances exclude financial sector support.

For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may thus differ from data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A2.

Advanced Economies: General Government Primary Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: Primary balance is defined as the overall balance excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

Data include financial sector support. For Cyprus, 2014 and 2015 balances exclude financial sector support.

Table A3.

Advanced Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of potential GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

Data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

For cross-country comparability, expenditure and fiscal balances of the United States are adjusted to exclude the imputed interest on unfunded pension liabilities and the imputed compensation of employees, which are counted as expenditures under the 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) adopted by the United States, but not in countries that have not yet adopted the 2008 SNA. Data for the United States in this table may thus differ from data published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table A4.

Advanced Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of potential GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: Cyclically adjusted primary balance is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

The data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

Table A5.

Advanced Economies: General Government Revenue, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.
Table A6.

Advanced Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.
Table A7.

Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

For cross-country comparability, gross debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Table A8.

Advanced Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table B.

For cross-country comparability, net debt levels reported by national statistical agencies for countries that have adopted the 2008 System of National Accounts (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong SAR, United States) are adjusted to exclude unfunded pension liabilities of government employees’ defined-benefit pension plans.

Belgium’s net debt series has been revised to ensure consistency between liabilities and assets. Net debt is defined as gross debt (Maastricht definition) minus assets in the form of currency and deposits, loans, and debt securities.

Net debt figures were revised to include only categories of assets corresponding to the categories of liabilities covered by the Maastricht definition of gross debt.

Net debt for Iceland is defined as gross debt less currency and deposits.

Net debt for Ireland is defined as gross general debt less debt instrument assets, namely, currency and deposits (F2), debt securities (F3), and loans (F4). It was previously defined as general government debt less currency and deposits.

Norway’s net debt series has been revised because of a change in the net debt calculation by excluding the equity and shares from financial assets and including accounts receivable in the financial assets, following Government Finance Statistics and the Maastricht definition.

Table A9.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A10.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Primary Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: Primary balance is defined as the overall balance excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A11.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of potential GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A12.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of potential GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: Cyclically adjusted primary balance is defined as the cyclically adjusted balance plus net interest payable/paid (interest expense minus interest revenue) following the World Economic Outlook convention. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Data for these countries include adjustments beyond the output cycle. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A13.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Revenue, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A14.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Expenditure, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A15.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Gross Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Gross debt refers to the nonfinancial public sector, excluding Eletrobras and Petrobras, and includes sovereign debt held on the balance sheet of the central bank.

In late 2016, the authorities changed the definition of debt to a consolidated basis, which in 2016 was 11.5 percent of GDP lower than the previous aggregate definition. Both the historic and projection numbers are now presented on a consolidated basis.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A16.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Net Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table C. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan.

Based on nominal GDP series prior to the recent revision; therefore, data in the tables are not comparable to the authorities’ numbers.

Table A17.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Overall Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A18.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Primary Balance, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: Primary balance is defined as the overall balance excluding net interest payments. For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A19.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Revenue, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A20.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Expenditure, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A21.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Gross Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A22.

Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Net Debt, 2009–23

(Percent of GDP)

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Source: IMF staff estimates and projections. Projections are based on staff assessment of current policies (see “Fiscal Policy Assumptions” in text). Note: For country-specific details, see “Data and Conventions” in text, and Table D.
Table A23.

Advanced Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except where otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.R; Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. For the European Union countries, pension projections are based on The 2015 Ageing Report of the European Commission. When authorities’ estimates are not available, staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta, Eguitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). Staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographic and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed to start at the country specific historic average and converge to the advanced economy historic average by 2050 (0.8 percent).

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each country.

Gross financing need is defined as the projected overall deficit and maturing government debt in 2018. Data are from Bloomberg Finance L.R and IMF staff projections.

For most countries, average term to maturity data refer to central government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are for the fourth quarter of 2017 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub (JEDH), Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some countries, tradable instruments in the JEDH are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency then taken as a percentage of 2017 gross general government debt.

Italy’s pension projections do not reflect the new demographic assumptions. Taking more prudent assumptions for the employment rate, productivity growth, and demographics, staff calculations show that the change in pension spending over 2015–30 would be about 3 percent of GDR see Italy 2017 Article IV Staff Report, Box 4.

Singapore’s general government debt is covered by financial assets and issued to develop the bond market.

Table A24.

Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except where otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. For the European Union countries, pension projections are based on The 2015 Ageing Report of the European Commission. When authorities’ estimates are not available, staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta, Eguitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). Staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographic and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed at the advanced economy historic average by 2050 (0.8 percent).

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each country.

Gross financing need is defined as the projected overall balance and maturing government debt in 2018. Data are from IMF staff projections.

Average term to maturity data refer to government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are the fourth quarter of 2017 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub (JEDH), Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some countries, tradable instruments in the JEDH are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency then taken as a percentage of 2017 gross general government debt.

IMF staff projects an increase in pension spending in Brazil equivalent to 5.9 percent of GDP by 2030. For more detail, refer to Fiscal Challenges of an Aging Population in Brazil(IMF, 2016).

Average Term to Maturity indicator for Turkey is in accordance with the published data for central government debt securities as of January 2018.

Table A25.

Low-Income Developing Countries: Structural Fiscal Indicators

(Percent of GDP, except where otherwise indicated)

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Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.R; Joint External Debt Hub, Quarterly External Debt Statistics; national authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. Note: All country averages are weighted by nominal GDP converted to US dollars at average market exchange rates in the years indicated and based on data availability.

Pension projections rely on authorities’ estimates when these are available. For the European Union countries, pension projections are based on The 2015 Ageing Report of the European Commission. When authorities’ estimates are not available, staff projections use the methodology described in Clements, Eich, and Gupta, Eguitable and Sustainable Pensions: Challenges and Experience (IMF 2014). Staff projections for health care spending are driven by demographic and other factors. The difference between the growth of health care spending and real GDP growth that is not explained by demographics (“excess cost growth”) is assumed at the advanced economy historic average by 2050 (0.8 percent).

For net present value calculations, a discount rate of 1 percent a year in excess of GDP growth is used for each country.

Average term to maturity data refer to government securities; the source is Bloomberg Finance L.R

Nonresident holding of general government debt data are the fourth quarter of 2017 or latest available from the Joint External Debt Hub (JEDH), Quarterly External Debt Statistics, which include marketable and nonmarketable debt. For some countries, tradable instruments in the JEDH are reported at market value. External debt in US dollars is converted to local currency, then taken as a percentage of 2017 gross general government debt.

Fiscal Monitor Selected Topics

Fiscal Monitor Archives

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I. Adjustment

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II. Commodities and Energy

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III. Country Cases

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IV. Crises, Shocks

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V. Emerging Markets

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VI. Employment

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VII. Financial Sector

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VIII. Fiscal Outlook

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IX. Government Debt

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X. Private Debt

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XI. Growth

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XII. Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Research, and Development

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XIII. Interest Rates

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XIV. Low-Income Countries

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XV. Policy and Reform

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XVI. Privatization, Public Enterprises

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XVII. Revenue

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XVIII. Social Expenditures

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XIX. Stabilization

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XX. Stimulus

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XXI. Subsidies

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XXII. Sustainability and Risk Management

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XXIII. Taxation

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XXIV. Inequality

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IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2018

The following remarks were made by the Chair at the conclusion of the Executive Board’s discussion of the Fiscal Monitor, Global Financial Stability Report, and World Economic Outlook on April 2, 2018.

Executive Directors broadly shared the key messages of the flagship reports and found the analytical chapters topical, relevant, and insightful. They welcomed the broadbased recovery of the global economy, supported by a pickup in investment and trade. Directors observed that global growth is expected to rise further in the near term. Meanwhile, inflation remains muted in many countries. Subdued labor productivity growth and population aging continue to hold back growth in advanced economies. While the recent commodity price increase has supported a recovery in commodity-dependent emerging market and developing economies, the ongoing adjustment processes continue to weigh on growth.

Directors agreed that risks around the short-term outlook are broadly balanced, but beyond the next several quarters, risks are tilted to the downside. On the upside, the cyclical pickup in advanced economy growth may prove stronger than expected as slack in labor markets may be larger than currently assessed. On the downside, a sharp tightening of global financial conditions could have negative repercussions for growth, while financial vulnerabilities accumulated over years of low interest rates could amplify the impact of asset price movements on the financial system, putting growth at risk in the medium term. Most Directors noted that the tax reform in the United States is procyclical and may trigger inflation pressure and a faster-than-anticipated withdrawal of monetary accommodation, as well as widen global imbalances, although the view was also expressed that the reform would boost investment and efficiency, and thus move the US economy to a higher, sustainable growth path. An abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, especially if accompanied by capital flow reversals, could be challenging for several emerging markets and low-income developing countries, notwithstanding improved resilience of their financial systems. Downside risks are particularly evident from escalating trade protectionism and inward-looking policies. Record-high levels of global debt, geopolitical tensions, and climate events also threaten global growth prospects.

Against this backdrop, Directors underscored that the cyclical upswing provides a golden opportunity to advance policies and reforms to strengthen medium-term prospects and reduce vulnerabilities. Priorities are to raise potential output, ensure the gains are widely shared, enhance economic and financial resilience, and safeguard debt sustainability. Directors stressed that a multilateral framework that is open, resilient, and adhered to by all can support growth and benefit the global economy. Enhanced commitment to multilateral cooperation is particularly needed to reduce trade barriers and distortionary trade practices, and to promote a rule-based multilateral trading system that works for all. Directors also called for multilateral cooperation to further reduce incentives for cross-border profit shifting and tax evasion, avoid tax competition, implement the postcrisis financial regulatory reform agenda, and address other shared challenges such as refugees, security threats, cyber risks, and climate change. Reducing excess external imbalances requires policy efforts to lift the contribution of domestic sources of growth above overall GDP growth in surplus countries and to boost potential output and saving in deficit countries.

Directors concurred that monetary accommodation should continue in advanced economies with inflation below target. Where output is close to potential and inflation is rising toward target, a gradual, data-dependent, and well-communicated withdrawal of monetary support is warranted. Directors supported the call for fiscal policy to start rebuilding buffers now, where appropriate, to create room for an eventual downturn and prevent fiscal vulnerabilities from becoming a source of stress. Fiscal adjustment is warranted in most countries, calibrated to avoid pro-cyclicality and anchored on fiscal reforms that increase productivity and promote human and physical capital. In countries that have ample fiscal space and are operating at or close to capacity, fiscal policy should be used to facilitate growth-enhancing structural reforms. Directors also saw a role for fiscal policy in promoting equality, and for labor and immigration policies in boosting labor supply.

Directors agreed that digitalization presents both opportunities and risks. Digitalization can reduce tax compliance costs, improve spending efficiency, and enhance social protection. At the same time, it creates challenges for fiscal policy and the international tax system. Directors noted that mitigating risks from digitalization would require a comprehensive reform agenda, adequate resources, and a coordinated approach toward a long-term vision of the international tax architecture.

Directors welcomed the increased resilience of the banking system and stressed the importance of completing and implementing the postcrisis regulatory reform agenda. They encouraged policymakers to develop and deploy micro and macroprudential tools to address financial vulnerabilities, and to closely monitor risks related to credit allocation and increasingly synchronized house prices across countries. The global implications of Brexit-related challenges also call for close cross-border cooperation. Directors concurred that, while crypto assets do not pose an immediate threat to financial stability, if widely used, they may raise issues about investor and consumer protection, money laundering, and tax evasion.

Directors agreed that enhancing the quality of credit intermediation, avoiding credit booms that lead to excessive risk taking, and, where feasible, permitting exchange rate flexibility can help emerging market and developing economies enhance their resilience to external shocks. Directors welcomed China’s progress in reducing financial vulnerabilities and encouraged further efforts to strengthen its regulatory and supervisory frameworks, particularly in the shadow banking sector.

Directors noted that low-income developing countries face multiple challenges in their effort to progress toward the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. They expressed concern over the broad-based increase in public debt burdens, the increasing number of countries at high risk of debt distress, and data gaps. These underscore the urgent need for fiscal prudence, improved debt management capacity, and greater debt transparency on the part of both debtors and creditors, as well as concerted efforts from the international community. Several countries need to make room in their budgets to accommodate higher spending on social services such as health care and education, and public investment, by mobilizing domestic revenues and improving spending efficiency. Commodity exporters and those vulnerable to climate-related events face additional complex challenges of diversifying their economies. While country circumstances differ, common priorities for promoting economic diversification and employment include increasing access to credit, expanding vocational skills training, and improving the quality of infrastructure.

Directors expressed concern over the stalled progress in the catching-up process of emerging market and developing economies. They noted that, to facilitate income convergence, policies should aim to strengthen governance, improve educational and health outcomes, and lower entry barriers for new firms.

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Cover Fiscal Monitor, April 2018
Fiscal Monitor, April 2018
Capitalizing on Good Times
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
ISBN:
9781484333952
ISSN:
2219-276X
Publication Date:
18 Apr 2018
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484333952.089
Pages:
156