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Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

Annex Table: 1.

Selected Indicators for the Fastest and Slowest Growing Economies, 2003

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Data through November used for 2003

Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Annex Table 2.

Selected Indicators for the Fastest and Slowest Growing Economies, 1998–2003

(In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

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Data through November used for 2003

Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 1.

Real GDP Growth, 1997-2004

(In percent)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 2.

Real Per Capita GDP, 1997-2004

(In U.S. dollars, at 1990 prices, using 1990 exchange rates)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 3.

Real Per Capita GDP Growth, 1997-2004

(In percent)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 4.

Consumer Prices, 1997-2004

(Annual average percent change)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 5.

Total Investment, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 6.

Domestic Saving, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 7.

Overall Fiscal Balance, Including Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 8.

Overall Fiscal Balance, Excluding Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 9.

Government Revenue, Excluding Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 10.

Government Expenditure, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 11.

Broad Money Growth, 1997-2004

(In percent)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 12.

Exports of Goods and Services, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 13.

Imports of Goods and Services, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 14.

Trade Balance, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 15.

Terms of Trade

(Index, 1990=100)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 16.

External Current Account, Including Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 17.

External Current Account, Excluding Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 18.

Official Grants, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 19.

Total External Debt, 1997-2004

(In billions U.S. dollars)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
Table 20.

External Public Debt, 1997-2004

(In percent of GDP)

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Sources: IMF, African Department database, February 2004; and WEO database, February 2004.
1

The main source of data for the Regional Economic Outlook is the African Department WEO/WETA data base as of February 10, 2004. The data base excludes Eritrea and Liberia, for which comprehensive data are not available.

2

For the purpose of the Regional Economic Outlook, the term Sub-Saharan Africa refers to the 44 countries covered by the IMF’s African Department, It excludes Mauritania, Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan, which are covered by the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.

3

The oil economies are Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Nigeria. São Tomé and Principe does not yet produce oil, but oil-related revenues are being generated from the sale of exploration and development concessions.

4

The six countries to have reached the completion point under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative are Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda.

5

Some programs expired during the year, and others were approved. Twenty-one SSA countries had programs at the beginning of 2003 and 22 had programs at the end.

6

Chad’s program formally expired on January 4, 2004 after a one-month extension. It expired without completion of the final review.

7

Mali reached its completion point under the original HIPC Initiative in September 2000.

8

The Fund Board approved the Burundi government’s request for a three-year arrangement under the PRGF on January 23, 2004.

9

Seychelles and Mauritius are ranked 36 and 62, respectively. The next-highestranked SSA country is Cape Verde, at 103. The components of the HDI are life expectancy, adult literacy, school enrollment, and per capita income.

10

UNAIDS/WHO, Aids Epidemic Update, December 2003.

11

This figure is lower than the one reported in the previous SSA Regional Outlook. This is due primarily to the downward revision in the incidence of HIV in Zimbabwe.

12

For the purposes of this report, seven countries are defined as conflict cases: Burundi, the C.A.R., the Republic of Congo, the DRC, Côte d’Ivoire, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone. A country is classified as being in conflict if there has been sustained fighting during the past three years.

13

Liquidity conditions are considered to tighten when the difference between the growth rates of nominal broad money and real GDP declines. This measure does not account for shifts in money velocity, which may decline in periods of rapid disinflation (as in the DRC) or in the aftermath of conflict (as in the C.A.R.).

14

While Seychelles and Zimbabwe have de jure fixed exchange rates regimes, both have large parallel foreign exchange markets with large premia. Inflation in Seychelles has been suppressed through the use of price controls.

15

Not all countries have fiscal deficits. An increase in a fiscal balance refers to either an increase in the fiscal surplus or a reduction in the size of the fiscal deficit.

16

As a result, domestic interest payments in Zimbabwe fell from 16.5 percent of GDP in 2000 to 1.9 percent in 2003.

17

Net official flows include official transfers, net disbursements from multilateral and bilateral creditors, debt relief (forgiveness and rescheduling), and the net accumulation of external arrears.

18

Total Fund credit outstanding increased for 11 countries and declined for 20.

19

FDI is expected to have amounted to only 1 percent of GDP for all non-oil-exporting countries.

20

Current-year external debt as a ratio to average exports of goods and services during the current and previous two years.

21

The ratio has fallen in all but one of the last nine years.

22

Monetary conditions are projected to be tighter than at any time since 1980.

23

Including official transfers and debt relief, but excluding potential debt reschedulings.

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