Statistical Appendix
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Abstract

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before March 1986. The recording of the figures for 1985 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience. It is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

Assumptions and Conventions

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before March 1986. The recording of the figures for 1985 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience. It is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

The estimates and projections for 1986 and 1987 are predicated on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses:

(1) for the major currencies, the average exchange rates of March 3–7, 1986 will remain unchanged in real terms throughout the balance of 1986 and 1987.

(2) “present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; and

(3) the price of oil will average $15 per barrel from the second quarter of 1986 to the end of 1987.

A few of the tables include series expressed in SDRs (or based on SDR values). The U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For the years prior to 1970, these data impute to the SDR a value of $1.00. For 1986 and 1987, the exchange rate assumptions specified above imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.144 and 1.158, respectively.

Classification of Countries

The basic distinction, adopted by the Fund in December 1979, is between industrial countries and developing countries. Industrial countries comprise:

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The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GNP (Canada, the United States, Japan, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) are collectively referred to as the major industrial countries.

The developing countries include all other Fund members (as of January 1, 1986) together with certain essentially autonomous dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.1 The regional breakdowns of data for developing countries conform to the regional classification used in IFS. It should be noted that, in this classification, Egypt, and Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are part of the Middle East, not Africa.

The analytical groupings currently used by the staff to distinguish among developing countries are (1) countries grouped by predominant export; (2) countries grouped by financial criteria; (3) countries grouped by other criteria; and (4) countries grouped by the former classification criteria. At present, the financial criteria first distinguish among capital exporting and capital importing countries. Countries in the latter, much larger, group are then distinguished on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by predominant type of creditor and by the degree of debt-servicing difficulties faced by countries. The country groups shown under the heading of “by miscellaneous criteria” include capital importing fuel exporters; 15 heavily indebted countries; small low-income countries; and sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Table A presents the standard set of headings used in many of the tables for developing countries as well as the proportion of developing country GDP, exports of goods and services, and indebtedness accounted for by the groups in question. Further details on the classification scheme are given below.

The first analytical criterion used to group developing countries is by predominant export category. Four categories are distinguished: fuel (SITC 3); other primary commodities (SITC 0,1,2,4, and diamonds and gemstones); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less diamonds and gemstones); and “services and remittances,” On the basis of data for 1980, countries are assigned to that commodity grouping which accounts for 50 percent or more of their exports. Specifically, countries are assigned to the “services and remittances” category if their receipts on these transactions account for at least half of their exports of goods and services. If countries do not meet this criterion, they are assigned to that trade category (of the three listed above) which accounts for at least half of their total merchandise exports.2

Given these definitions, the fuel exporters comprise the following countries:

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The primary product exporters, that is, countries whose exports of agricultural and mineral primary products other than fuel accounted for over 50 percent of their total exports in 1980, comprise:

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A further distinction is made among the primary product exporters on the basis of whether countries’ exports of primary commodities (other than fuel) consisted primarily of agricultural (SITC 0 and 1) or mineral (SITC 2 and 4 and diamonds and gemstones) commodities. The mineral exporters comprise:

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The agricultural exporters are those non-fuel primary product exporters that are not also mineral exporters.

The exporters of manufactures (that is, those countries or areas whose exports of manufactures accounted in 1980 for over 50 percent of total exports) include:

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The service and remittance countries, that is, those countries whose receipts from services (such as tourism) and private transfers (such as workers’ remittances) amount to at least 50 percent of their exports of goods and services, comprise:

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The primary product exporters, exporters of manufactures, and service and remittance countries taken together are referred to as the “non-fuel exporters.”

A second set of analytical groupings of developing countries is based on financial criteria. A first distinction is made between those developing countries that have traditionally been capital exporters and those that have traditionally been capital importers. At present, capital exporters are defined as those developing countries that, on average, recorded a current account surplus during the period 1979–81 and were aid donors over the same period. The capital exporting countries comprise:

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Table A.

Developing Countries: Shares of Various Subgroups in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Debt Outstanding, 1980

(In percent)

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In percent of outstanding debt of capital importing developing countries.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

The capital importing countries comprise all other developing countries.

Within the group of capital importing developing countries and areas, two types of financial distinctions are made. The first distinguishes among countries and areas on the basis of their predominant type of creditor. Market borrowers are defined as those countries which obtained at least two thirds of their external borrowings from 1978 to 1982 from commercial creditors. The group includes:

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Official borrowers comprise those countries, except China and India, which obtained two thirds or more of their external borrowings from 1978 to 1982 from official creditors. The countries are:

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Diversified borrowers comprise those capital importing developing countries that are not market or official borrowers. These countries’ external borrowings in 1978–82 were more or less evenly divided between official and commercial creditors. China and India are included in this group.

A second financial distinction among capital importing developing countries is based on whether countries have or have not experienced debt-servicing difficulties in the recent past. Countries that have experienced debt-servicing problems are defined as those countries which incurred external payments arrears during 1983 to 1984 or rescheduled their debt during the period from end-1982 to mid-1985 as reported in the relevant issues of the Fund’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Countries classified as not having experienced debt-servicing problems are defined as all other capital importing developing countries.

Several other analytical groups are also used in the report. One of these is the group of capital importing fuel exporters. This group, which is also referred to as the “indebted fuel exporters,” comprises those 12 fuel exporters that are not capital exporters. A second is the group of 15 heavily indebted countries. This group comprises:

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A third is the group of low-income countries, which comprises 43 countries whose per capita GDP, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $410 in 1980. The countries in this group are:

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References to the small or smaller low-income countries refer to the above group, less China and India. Reference is also made to sub-Saharan Africa, which comprises all African countries (as defined in IFS) except Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia.

Finally, many of the tables present data on the developing countries grouped in accordance with the former classification categories. In this system, which was the one used from 1980 to 1984, the developing countries were divided into two groups—”oil exporting countries” and “non-oil developing countries.” The countries included under the heading oil exporting countries3 are:

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Among the non-oil developing countries, four analytical subgroups of countries were distinguished. These subgroupings were based primarily on the character of the countries’ economic activity and on the predominant composition of their exports. Since the large “non-oil” group in the basic classification included some countries that had significant production or exports of oil, one of the analytic subgroups shown separately comprised countries (outside the main oil exporting group mentioned above) whose oil exports exceeded their oil imports in most years of the 1970s. The countries classified in the subgroup net oil exporters were:

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The net oil importers subgroup comprises all other non-oil developing countries.

Except where otherwise specifically indicated, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and other non-member countries of Eastern Europe, Cuba, and North Korea are excluded from the following tables. Also, it has not been possible to include in the tables a number of small countries or territories for which trade and payments data are not available.

List of Tables

Medium-Term Scenario

Table A1.

World Output, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Real GDP (or GNP) for industrial and developing countries and real net material product (NMP) for other countries. Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GDPs (GNPs or NMPs where applicable) over the preceding three years. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the valuation of the composite NMP of the other countries, they have been assigned—somewhat arbitrarily—a weight of 15 percent in the calculation of the growth of world output. Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

The U.S.S.R. and other countries of Eastern Europe that are not members of the Fund.

Table A2.

Industrial Countries: Real GNP and Total Domestic Demand, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GDP at market prices.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Table A3.

Industrial Countries: Components of Real GNP, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for country groups are averages of percentage changes in real terms for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

Changes expressed as a percentage of GNP in the preceding period.

Table A4.

Industrial Countries: Employment and Unemployment, 1968–871

(In percent)

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The figures in the table are not comparable among countries since they are based on the differing labor force definitions and concepts used by the respective national statistical agencies.

Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

National unemployment rates weighted by labor force in the respective countries.

Figures for ]1968 to 1977 have been adjusted by the staff to allow for a discontinuity in Italian labor force statistics.

Table A5.

Developing Countries: Real GDP, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Except where otherwise indicated, arithmetic averages of country growth rates weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years. Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A6.

Developing Countries: Per Capita Real GDP, 1968–871

(Annual changes. In percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A7.

Developing Countries: Gross Capital Formation, 1978–861

(In percent of GDP)

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Except where otherwise indicated, arithmetic averages of country ratios weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A8.

Inflation. 1968–871

(In percent)

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As measured by changes in GNP deflators for industrial countries and changes in consumer prices for developing countries.

Compound annual rates of change.

Averages of percentage changes in GNP deflators for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Percentage changes of geometric averages of indices of consumer prices for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GDPs over the preceding three years. Excluding China prior to 1978.

Table A9.

Industrial Countries: GNP Deflators and Consumer Prices, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GDP at market prices.

Table A10.

Industrial Countries: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

Table A11.

Developing Countries: Consumer Prices—Weighted Averages, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Geometric averages of country indices weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years. Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A12.

Developing Countries: Consumer Prices—Median Estimates, 1968—87

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A13.

Summary Financial Indicators, 1978–87

(In percent)

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In percent of GNP/GDP.

For definition of fiscal impulses, see World Economic Outlook April 1985, Supplementary Note 1. See also footnotes to Table A16. It should be noted that estimates for the industrial and developing countries are not necessarily comparable, in part because of the exclusion of the so-called monetary correction from the estimates for some of the high-inflation developing countries.

For definitions of monetary aggregates, see footnotes 3 and 4 to Table A14.

London interbank offered rate on six-month U.S. dollar deposits.

Money and quasi-money. For method of calculation, see Table A18.

Table A14.

Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Aggregates, 1978–861

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, Canada excludes private sector float; the United States includes traveler’s checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks; the Federal Republic of Germany includes demand deposits at fixed interest rates; and Japan includes government demand deposits and excludes float.

M1 plus quasi-money—generally “M2,” except for the United Kingdom, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany, for which the data are based on sterling M3, M2 + CD, and M3, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U.S. residents by foreign branches of U.S. banks. France also includes government savings bonds. Sterling M3 is Ml plus private sterling time deposits. For Japan, M2 + CD is currency in circulation plus total private and public sector deposits and installments of Sogo Banks plus certificates of deposit. For the Federal Republic of Germany, M3 is Ml plus private time deposits with maturities of less than four years plus savings deposits at statutory notice.

Table A15.

Major Industrial Countries: Interest Rates, 1978–January 19861

(In percent per annum)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of interest rates for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Interest rate on the following instruments: Canada, three-month Financial paper; United States, 90-day bank certificates of deposit in secondary market; Japan, discount rate on two-month private bills; Franc the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, three-month interbank loan rate.

Average yield to maturity of central government bonds with terms of 10 years or more for Canada, 20 years for the United States and the United Kingdom, and over the counter sales yields of interest bearing government bonds with maturities of 10 years or more for Japan. Average yield to maturity of National Equipment Bonds of 1965, 1966, and 1967 for France, public authorities bonds with terms of three years or more for the Federal Republic of Germany, and bonds issued by the Consortium of Credit for Public Works with an average maturity of 15 to 20 years for Italy.

Table A16.

Major Industrial Countries: Central Government Fiscal Balances and Impulses, 1978–871

(In percent of GNP)

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Composites for the country groups are weighted averages of the individual national ratios for each year, with weights proportionate to the U.S. dollar value of the respective GNPs in the preceding three years.

Data for Canada and the United Kingdom are on a national income accounts basis.

Data for Japan cover the consolidated operations of the general account, certain special accounts, social security transactions, and disbursements of the fiscal investment and loan program (FILP) except those to financial institutions. Japanese data other than FLIP transactions are based on national income accounts.

Data for France are on an administrative basis and do not include social security transactions.

Data for Italy refer to the state sector and cover the transactions of the state budget as well as those of several autonomous entities operating at the state level. They also include the deficit, but not the gross transactions, of social security institutions, and part of that of local authorities.

Table A17.

Major Industrial Countries; General Government Fiscal Balances and Impulses, 1978–871

(in percent of GNP)

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Data are on a national income accounts basis. Composites for the country groups are weighted averages of the individual national ratios for each year, with weights proportionate to the U.S. dollar value of the respective GNPs in the preceding three years.

Table A18.

Developing Countries: Broad Money Aggregates, 1978–851

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Except where otherwise indicated, geometric averages of country indices, weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over thepreceding three years.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A19.

Developing Countries: Central Government Fiscal Balances, 1978–861

(In percent of GDP)

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Arithmetic averages of country balances, in percent of GDP, weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of GDPs over the preceding three years.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A20.

Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Averages based on data for the two groups of countries shown separately below and on partly estimated data for the U.S.S.R. and other nonmember countries of Eastern Europe and, for years prior to 1978, China.

For years prior to 1970, an imputed value of US$1.00 has been assigned to the SDR.

As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for the manufactures of the industrial countries; the oil export unit value of the oil exporting countries (according to the former analytical categories); and the index of market quotations for non-oil primary commodities exported by the developing countries.

Table A21.

Industrial Countries: Merchandise Trade, 1968–87

(Changes, in percent)

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Compound annual rates of change.

Averages of changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective non-oil imports over the preceding three years.

Ratio of growth in non-oil imports to growth in real GNP.

Average of individual commodity price indices weighted by the U.S. dollar value of industrial countries’ imports of the respective commodities in 1979–81.

Table A22.

Industrial Countries: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Trade in goods only.

Compound annual rates of change.

Composites for country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective merchandise exports over the preceding three years.

Composites for country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective merchandise imports over the preceding three years.

Table A23.

Developing Countries: Merchandise Trade, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

ompound annual rates of change.

Export earnings deflated by import prices.

Oil exporting countries, according to the former classification categories.

Exported by the industrial countries.

Gold holdings are valued at SDR 35 an ounce.

Table A24.

Developing Countries: Export Volumes, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978,

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A25.

Developing Countries: Import Volumes, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A26.

Developing Countries: Export Unit Values, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent, in terms of U.S. dollars)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A27.

Developing Countries: Import Unit Values, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent, in terms of U.S. dollars)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A28.

Developing Countries: Terms of Trade, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A29.

Developing Countries; Non-Oil Commodity Prices, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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In U.S. dollar terms.

Compound annual rates of change.

Based on averages of component commodity price indices weighted by the U.S. dollar value of exports of each commodity from developing countries in 1979–81.

Based on averages of individual commodity price indices weighted according to the 1979–81 composition of commodity exports of the respective groups of developing countries.

Of the oil exporting countries (according to the former analytical categories).

Exported by the industrial countries.

Table A30.

Summary of Payments Balances on Current Account, 1978–871

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Including official transfers.

Covers estimated balances on current transactions only in convertible currencies of the U.S.S.R. and other nonmember countries of Eastern Europe.

Reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries in reported balance of payments statistics on current account, plus balance of listed groups with countries not included. In the estimate for 1987, the current balance for the group of “Other countries” has been assumed to remain at the same level as projected for 1986.

Staff estimates of the difference between the beginning-of-year and end-of-year “float,” that is, the value of those exports that have not yet been recorded as imports (usually because the goods are in transit or because of delays in the processing of the documentation). The estimates should be viewed only as rough orders of magnitude.

Table A31.

Industrial Countries: Balance of Payments on Current Account, 1978–871

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Including official transfers.

Table A32.

Industrial Countries: Current Account Transactions, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Figures shown are on a balance of payments basis with rough adjustments to those countries’ oil trade balance data that are only available on a trade returns basis.

Table A33.

Developing Countries: Summary of Payments Balances on Current Account, 1978–871

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Including official transfers.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa,

Table A34.

Developing Countries: Summary of Payments Balances on Goods, Services, and Private Transfers, 1978–87

In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A35.

Developing Countries: Current Account Balances as Percentage of Exports of Goods and Services, 1968–871

(In percent)

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Including official transfers.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A36.

Developing Countries—by Region: Current Account Transactions, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Comprises all investment income, except payments of income on foreign direct investment; receipts from direct investment abroad by residents are included.

Including dividends and other investment income payments not related to foreign direct investment.

Table A37.

Developing Countries—by Predominant Export: Current Account Transactions, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Comprises all investment income, except payments of income on foreign direct investment; receipts from direct investment abroad by residents are included.

Including dividends and other investment income payments not related to foreign direct investment.

Table A38.

Developing Countries—by Financial and Other Criteria: Current Account Transactions, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Comprises all investment income, except payments of income on foreign direct investment; receipts from direct investment abroad by residents are included.

Including dividends and other investment income payments not related to foreign direct investment.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

Table A39.

Developing Countries—by Alternative Analytical Categories: Current Account Transactions, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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Comprises all investment income, except payments of income on foreign direct investment; receipts from direct investment abroad by residents are included.

Including dividends and other investment income payments not related to foreign direct investment.

Table A40.

Capital Importing Developing Countries—by Class of Creditor: External Financing, 1978–87

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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NOTE: Except where otherwise footnoted, estimates shown here are based on national balance of payments statistics, which are not always easily reconcilable with year-to-year changes in either debtor- or creditor-reported debt statistics, in part because the latter are affected by changes in valuation.

Equivalent to current account deficit less official transfers. For purposes of this table, official transfers are treated as external financing.

Pertains primarily to export credit.

Positioned here on the presumption that estimates reflect primarily unrecorded capital outflows.

Comprises short-term borrowing by monetary authorities from other monetary authorities.

Projected use of Fund credit includes prospective programs.

Estimates, based on debt statistics reported in Tables A47 and A48, of net disbursements by official creditors (other than monetary institutions).

Residually calculated. Except for minor discrepancies in coverage, amounts shown reflect almost exclusively net external borrowing from private creditors.

Refers only to long-term lending by banks guaranteed by government of debtor country. Bank lending also accounts for large fractions of unguaranteed long-term flows (included in “other” long-term flows) and short-term flows.

Table A41.

Capital Importing Developing Countries—by Region: Summary of External Financing, 1978–871

(in billions of U.S. dollars)

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For definition of stub entries, see Table A40.

Table A42.

Capital Importing Developing Countries—by Analytical Subgroup: Summary of External Financing, 1978–871

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

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For definition of stub entries, see Table A40.

For estimates for the market and official borrowers, see Table A40.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.