Statistical Appendix
Author:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Search for other papers by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Language:
English
Print Publication Date:
01 Jan 1992
Keywords:
WEO; asset price inflation; net creditor country; exchange market tension; net debtor countries; inflation rate; Exports; Current account balance; Inflation; Personal income; Trade balance; Eastern Europe; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; external borrowing; asset transaction; debt service; factor income; credit from IMF
Download PDF (5.7 MB)

Abstract

The Statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on September 4, 1992. The estimates and projections for 1992 and 1993, as well as those for the medium-term scenario for 1994-97, are based on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses.

Assumptions

The Statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on September 4, 1992. The estimates and projections for 1992 and 1993, as well as those for the medium-term scenario for 1994-97, are based on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses.

  • Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at their average level during August 1-7, 1992, except for the bilateral exchange rates among the ERM currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms.

  • “Present” policies of national authorities will be maintained.

  • The price of oil will average $18.32 a barrel in 1992 and $18.21 a barrel in 1993. In the medium term, the oil price is assumed to remain unchanged in real terms.

  • Interest rates, as represented by the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U. S. dollar deposits, will average 3.9 percent in 1992, 4¼ percent in 1993, and will gradually increase to 6 percent in 1997.

Conventions

U. S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For 1992 and 1993, the exchange rate assumptions specified above imply average U. S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.412 and 1.423, respectively. For the Eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies through 1990 are converted to U. S. dollars at the implicit U. S. dollar/ ruble rates obtained from each of these countries’ national currency exchange rates for the U. S. dollar and for the ruble.

Composite data for country groups shown in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries; they are calculated according to the following conventions.

  • For data relating to the domestic economy, composites are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by averages over the preceding three years of their respective GDPs in U. S. dollars. Data expressed as ratios (for example, in percent of GDP) are also weighted by three-year moving averages of U. S. dollar GDPs. Unemployment rates, however, are weighted by the size of each country’s labor force.

  • For data relating to the external economy (balance of payments and debt), composites are sums of individual country data after conversion to U. S. dollars at the average (end-of-period for debt) exchange rates in the years indicated, except that composites of foreign trade unit values are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by U. S. dollar values of their respective exports or imports in the preceding year. Group composites of trade volumes are derived as sums of trade values (on a balance of payments basis) deflated by corresponding unit-value group composites.

Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Multiyear averages for periods beginning before 1977 for country groups including China exclude data for that country because the data are not available.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

Beginning with this World Economic Outlook, the country classification is modified to permit a division of the world’s countries and territories into three, rather than two, broad groups: industrial countries, developing countries, and countries with previously centrally planned economies.1 Before, countries in the last group were classified as developing countries. The new group comprises Central and Eastern European countries, all the successor states of the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia. A common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles.

Tables A and B provide an overview by standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average shares of groups in aggregate GDP, total exports of goods and services, and total debt outstanding. The general features and compositions of these groups in the revised World Economic Outlook classification are as follows.

Table A.

Industrial Countries: Classification by Standard World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP and Exports of Goods and Services, 1988-90

article image

The shares for 1988-90 apply to west Germany only; unified Germany’s share of world GDP would be nearly 1 percentage point larger.

Table B.

Developing Countries and Former Centrally Planned Economies: Classification by Standard World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Total Debt Outstanding, 1988–90

article image

The group of industrial countries (23 countries) comprises

article image

The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—are collectively referred to as the major industrial countries. The members of the European Community are also distinguished as a subgroup.2 They are

article image

In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the former German Democratic Republic. Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government, foreign trade, and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

In principle, the group of developing countries (130 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as industrial or as former centrally planned economies, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available. In practice, however, a number of countries are presently not included, either because their economies are not monitored by the IMF or because data bases have not yet been compiled.3

The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IFS classification, with one important exception. Because most of the developing countries in Europe (all except Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey) are included in the group of former centrally planned economies, the revised World Economic Outlook classification combines the countries in the two IFS regions, Europe and the Middle East, into one. It should also be noted that, as before, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Two additional regional groupings are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Saharan Africa4 and four newly industrializing Asian economies.5

The developing countries are also grouped according to analytical criteria: predominant export, financial criteria, and miscellaneous groups. The export criteria are based on countries’ export composition in 1984-86, whereas the financial criteria reflect net creditor and debtor positions as of 1987, sources of borrowing as of the end of 1989, and experience with debt servicing during 1986-90.

The first analytical criterion, by predominant export, distinguishes among five groups: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less diamonds and gemstones); nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and diamonds and gemstones); services and private transfers; and diversified export base. A further distinction is made among the exporters of nonfuel primary products on the basis of whether countries’ exports of primary commodities consist primarily of agricultural commodities (SITC 0, 1, 2 except 27, 28, and 4) or minerals (SITC 27 and 28, and diamonds and gemstones).

The financial criteria first distinguish between net creditor and net debtor countries. Countries in the latter, much larger group are then differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by predominant type of creditor and by recent experience with debt servicing.

The country groups shown under miscellaneous groups constitute the small low-income economies, the least developed countries, and 15 heavily indebted countries.

The new group of former centrally planned economies (23 countries) comprises

article image

Two subgroups are distinguished among the former centrally planned economies, Eastern Europe and the former U. S.S.R. The countries in Eastern Europe (7 countries) are

article image

Detailed Description of the Developing Country Classification by Analytical Group

Countries Classified by Predominant Export

Fuel (19 countries). Countries whose average ratio of fuel exports to total exports in 1984-86 exceeded 50 percent are assigned to this category. The group comprises

article image

Nonfuel exports (111 countries). This category identifies countries with total exports of goods and services including a substantial share of (a) manufactures, (b) primary products, or (c) services and private transfers. However, those countries whose export structure is so diversified that they do not fall clearly into any one of these three groups are assigned to a fourth group, (d) diversified export base.

(a) Economies whose exports of manufactures accounted for over 50 percent of their total exports on average in 1984-86 are included in the group of exporters of manufactures (11 countries). This group includes

article image

(b) The group of exporters of primary products (54 countries) consists of those countries whose exports of primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and diamonds and gemstones) accounted for at least half of their total exports on average in 1984-86.7 These countries are

article image
article image

Among exporters of primary products, a further distinction is made between exporters of agricultural products and minerals. The group of mineral exporters (14 countries) comprises

article image

All other exporters of primary products are classified as agricultural exporters (40 countries).

(c) The exporters of services and recipients of private transfers (33 countries) are defined as those countries whose average income from services and private transfers accounted for more than half of total average export earnings in 1984-86. This group comprises

article image

(d) Countries with a diversified export base (13 countries) are those whose export earnings in 1984-86 were not dominated by any one of the categories mentioned under (a) through (c) above. The group comprises

article image

Countries Classified by Financial Criteria

Net creditor countries (8 countries) are defined as developing countries that were net external creditors in 1987 or that experienced substantial cumulated current account surpluses (excluding official transfers) between 1967-68 (the beginning of most balance of payments series in the World Economic Outlook data base) and 1987. The net creditor group consists of the following economies:

article image

Net debtor countries (122 countries) are disaggregated according to two criteria: (a) predominant type of creditor and (b) experience with debt servicing.

(a) Within the classification by predominant type of creditor (sources of borrowing), three subgroups are identified: market borrowers, official borrowers, and diversified borrowers.

Market borrowers (22 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1989 owed to commercial creditors. They comprise

article image

Official borrowers (69 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1989 owed to official creditors. This group comprises

article image

Diversified borrowers (31 countries) consist of those net debtor developing countries that are classified neither as market nor as official borrowers:

article image

(b) Within the classification by experience with debt servicing, a further distinction is made. Countries with recent debt-servicing difficulties (72 countries) are defined as those countries that incurred external payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank debt-rescheduling agreements during 1986-90. Information on these developments is taken from relevant issues of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. All other net debtor countries are classified as countries without debt-servicing difficulties (50 countries).

Miscellaneous Groups

The group of small low-income economies (45 countries) comprises those IMF members—excluding China and India—whose GDP per person, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $425 in 1986. These countries are

article image

The countries currently classified by the United Nations as the least developed countries (46 countries) are9

article image

The group of 15 heavily indebted countries (the Baker countries) comprises those countries associated with the “Program for Sustained Growth” proposed by the Governor for the United States at the 1985 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Seoul. These countries are

article image

List of tables

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

Table A1.

World Output1

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

Real GDP For a few industrial countries and—through 1990—for several former centrally planned economies, total output is measured by real GNP and real net material product (NMP), respectively.

Figures from 1990 onward are weighted averages of separate estimates for the 15 independent states of the former U. S.S.R. region.

Table A2.

Industrial Countries: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GNP at market prices.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Table A3.

Industrial Countries: Components of Real GDP

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
article image

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.

Table A4.

Industrial Countries: Employment, Unemployment, and Real Per Capita GDP

(In percent)

article image

Compound annual rate of change for employment and per capita GDP, and arithmetic average for unemployment rates.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Table A5.

Developing Countries: Real GDP

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A6.

Developing Countries: Real Per Capita GDP

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A7.

Developing Countries: Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services

(In percent of GDP)

article image
Table A8.

Inflation

(In percent)

article image
Table A9.

Industrial Countries: GDP Deflators and Consumer Prices

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GNP deflator.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Table A10.

Industrial Countries: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A11.

Developing Countries: Consumer Prices—Weighted Averages

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A12.

Developing Countries: Consumer Prices—Median Estimates

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A13.

Summary Financial Indicators

(In percent)

article image

In percent of GDP (GNP for Germany).

Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Three-month treasury bills for the United States, three-month certificates of deposits for Japan, three-month interbank deposits for Germany, and the London interbank offered rate on six-month U. S. dollar deposits (LIBOR).

Table A14.

Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Aggregates

(Annual change, in percent)1

article image

Based on end-of-period data.

M1 except for the United Kingdom, where M0 is used here as a measure of narrow money; it comprises notes in circulation with the public plus bankers’ operational deposits. M1 is generally currency in circulation plus private demand deposits. In addition, the United States includes travelers’ checks of nonbank issues and other checkable deposits and excludes private sector float and demand deposits of banks: Japan includes government demand deposits and excludes float; Germany includes demand deposits at fixed interest rates; and Canada excludes private sector float.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only. The growth rates for the monetary aggregates in 1991 are adjusted for the extension of the currency area.

M2, defined as M1 plus quasi-money, except for Japan. Germany, and the United Kingdom, for which the data are based on M2 plus certificates of deposit (CDs), M3, and M4, respectively. Quasi-money is essentially private term deposits and other notice deposits. The United States also includes money market mutual fund balances, money market deposit accounts, overnight repurchase agreements, and overnight Eurodollars issued to U. S. residents by foreign branches of U. S. banks. For Japan, M2 plus CDs is currency in circulation plus total private and public sector deposits and installments of Sogo Banks plus CDs. For Germany, M3 is M1 plus private time deposits with maturities of less than Tour years plus savings deposits at statutory notice. For the United Kingdom, M4 is composed of non-interest-bearing M1, private sector interest-bearing sterling sight bank deposits, private sector sterling time bank deposits, private sector holdings of sterling bank CDs. private sector holdings of building society shares and deposits, and sterling CDs less building society holdings of bank deposits and bank CDs. and notes and coins.

Table A15.

Major Industrial Countries: Interest Rates

(In percent a year)

article image

Interest rate on the following instruments: United States, three-month certificates of deposit (CDs) in secondary markets; Japan, from July 1984, three-month CDs (through June 1984, three-month Gensaki rate); Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, three-month interbank deposits; Italy, three-month treasury bills; and Canada, three-month prime corporate paper.

Yield on ten-year treasury bonds for the United States; over-the-counter sales yield on ten-year government bonds with longest residual maturity for Japan; yield on government bonds with maturities of nine to ten years for Germany; long-term (seven- to ten-year) government bond yield (Emprunts d’Etat à long terme TME) for France; secondary market yield on fixed-coupon (BTP) government bonds with two to four years’ residual maturity for Italy; yield on medium-dated (ten-year) government stock for the United Kingdom; and average yield on government bonds with residual maturities of over ten years for Canada.

August 1992 data refer to yield on ten-year government bonds.

Table A16.

Major Industrial Countries: Central Government Fiscal Balances and Impulses

(in percent of GDP)1

article image

In percent of GNP for Germany.

Data are on a budget basis.

Data are on a national income basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Data are on an administrative basis and exclude social security transactions.

Data refer to the state sector and cover the transactions of the state budget as well as those of several autonomous entities operating at the same level; data do not include the gross transactions of social security institutions, only their deficits.

Data are on a national income accounts basis.

For1990 through 1992, the fiscal impulse is calculated on the basis of data adjusted for net international financial transfers related to the Persian Gulf war.

Table A17.

Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Impulses1

(In percent of GDP)2

article image

On a national income accounts basis.

In percent of GNP for Germany.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Adjusted for valuation changes of the foreign exchange stabilization fund.

Excludes asset sales.

For relevant years, the fiscal impulse is calculated on the basis of data adjusted for net international financial transfers related to the Persian Gulf war.

General government, on an administrative basis, excluding social security transactions. Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Table A18.

Developing Countries: Broad Money Aggregates

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A19.

Developing Countries: Central Government Fiscal Balances

(In percent of GDP)

article image
Table A20.

Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

World trade excludes the intratrade of the states in the former U. S.S.R. region but includes all other trade of the former centrally planned economies. The growth rates are averages of world exports and imports.

As represented, respectively, by the export unit value index for the manufactures of the industrial countries; the average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and Alaska North Slope crude petroleum spot prices; and the average of world market prices for nonfuel primary commodities weighted by their 1979-81 shares in world commodity exports.

Table A21.

Industrial Countries: Merchandise Trade

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

Average of percent changes for individual countries weighted by the U. S. dollar value of their respective non-oil imports in the preceding year.

Ratio of growth in non-oil imports to growth in real GDP.

In U. S. dollars.

Average of world market prices of primary commodities weighted by their 1979-81 shares in industrial country primary commodity exports.

Table A22.

Industrial Countries: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade1

(Annual change, in percent)

article image

Merchandise trade based on balance of payments or trade returns data.

Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Table A23.

Developing Countries: Merchandise Trade

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
article image

Export earnings deflated by import prices.

In U. S. dollars.

Based on U.K. Brent, Dubai, and Alaska North Slope crude petroleum spot prices.

Including gold holdings valued at SDR 35 an ounce.

Table A24.

Developing Countries: Export Volumes

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A25.

Developing Countries: Import Volumes

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A26.

Developing Countries: Export Unit Values

(Annual change, in percent; U. S. dollar terms)

article image
Table A27.

Developing Countries: Import Unit Values

(Annual change, in percent; U. S. dollar terms)

article image
Table A28.

Developing Countries: Terms of Trade

(Annual change, in percent)

article image
Table A29.

Developing Countries: Nonfuel Commodity Prices1

(Annual change, in percent; U. S. dollar terms)

article image

In U. S. dollars. Averages weighted by 1979-81 commodity shares in exports of developing countries or groups of countries.

Average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and Alaska North Slope crude petroleum spot prices.

Exported by the industrial countries.

Table A30.

Summary of Payments Balances on Current Account

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image

Reflects errors, omissions, and asymmetries in balance of payments statistics on current account, as well as the exclusion of data for international organizations and a limited number of countries. See “Classification of Countries” in the introduction to this appendix.

Table A31.

Industrial Countries: Balance of Payments on Current Account

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image

Data through June 1990 apply to west Germany only.

In percent of GNP for Germany.

Table A32.

Industrial Countries: Current Account Transactions

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
Table A33.

Developing Countries: Payments Balances on Current Account1

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image

Including official transfers.

Table A34.

Developing Countries: Payments Balances on Goods, Services, and Private Transfers1

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image

Payments balances on current account excluding official transfers.

Table A35.

Developing Countries: Current Account Balances in Percent of Exports of Goods and Services

article image
Table A36.

Developing Countries—by Region: Current Account Transactions

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
article image
Table A37.

Developing Countries—by Predominant Export: Current Account Transactions

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
article image
Table A38.

Developing Countries—by Financial Criteria: Current Account Transactions

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
article image
Table A39.

Developing Countries—Miscellaneous Groups: Current Account Transactions

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
Table A40.

External Financing

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
Note: Except where footnoted, estimates are based on national balance of payments statistics. These flows are not always reconcilable with year-to-year changes in either debtor- or creditor-reported debt statistics, in part because the latter are affected by changes in valuation.

Official transfers are in this table treated as non-debt-creating financial flows.

Positioned here to reflect the discretionary nature of many countries’ reserve transactions (a need to increase the level of official reserves).

Includes export credit, recorded changes in private foreign assets, the collateral for debt-reduction operations, and unrecorded capital transactions.

Equals, with opposite sign, the sum of transactions listed above; it is the amount required to finance the deficit on goods, services, and private transfers, the increase in the official reserve level, the net asset transactions, and the transactions underlying the net errors and omissions. It reflects the net inflow of financial resources from the rest of the world.

Comprises, in addition to net credit from IMF, short-term borrowing by monetary authorities from other monetary authorities.

Includes use of IMF credit under the General Resources Account, Trust Fund, structural adjustment facility (SAF), and enhanced structural adjustment facility (ESAF). Further details are given in Table A44.

Residually derived. Includes disbursements of short- and long-term credits as well as exceptional financing from both official and private creditors.

This is often referred to as the “resource balance,” and with opposite sign, as the “net resource transfer.”

Defined as total net financing (see footnote 4 above) plus amortization due on external debt.

Defined as net borrowing (see footnote 7 above) plus amortization due on external debt.

Estimates of net disbursements by official creditors (other than monetary authorities) combine directly reported flows and flows derived from statistics on debt stocks. Official net disbursements include the increase in official claims caused by the transfer of officially guaranteed claims to the guarantor agency in the creditor country, usually in the context of debt rescheduling. When possible, the impact of debt cancellation is excluded.

Estimates reported directly or based on cross-border lending by banks derived from claims data consistent with the IMF’s international banking statistics, adjusted for valuation changes attributed to exchange rate movements, and the impact of debt-reduction operations. Excludes six offshore banking centers (the Bahamas, Bahrain, Hong Kong, the Netherlands Antilles, Panama, and Singapore).

Table A41.

Developing Countries—by Region: Summary of External Financing1

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
article image
Table A42.

Developing Countries—by Analytical Criteria: Summary of External Financing1

(In billions of U.S. dollars)

article image
article image
article image
article image
article image
article image

For definitions, see footnotes to Table A40.

Table A43.

Developing Countries: Reserves and Ratios of Reserves to Imports of Goods and Services1

(Values In billions of U.S. dollars; ratios in percent)

article image
article image

Official holdings of gold are valued at SDR 35 an ounce in this table. This convention results in a marked underestimate of reserves for countries that have substantial holdings of gold.

Reserves at year-end in percent of imports of goods and services for the year indicated.