World Economic and Financial Surveys
April 1986 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1986 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
July 1986 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
July 1986 | Export Credits: Developments and Prospects, by Eduard Brau, K. Burke Dillon, Chanpen Puckahtikom, and Miranda Xafa. |
October 1986 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
December 1986 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by Maxwell Watson, Russell Kincaid, Caroline Atkinson, Eliot Kalter, and David Folkerts-Landau. |
February 1987 | Recent Experience with Multilateral Official Debt Rescheduling, by K. Burke Dillon and Gumersindo Oliveros. |
April 1987 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1987 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
August 1987 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
October 1987 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
January 1988 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by Maxwell Watson, Donald Mathieson, Russell Kincaid, David Folkerts-Landau, Klaus Regling, and Caroline Atkinson. |
February 1988 | Officially Supported Export Credits: Developments and Prospects, by K. Burke Dillon and Luis Duran-Downing, with Miranda Xafa. |
April 1988 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1988 | Multilateral Official Debt Rescheduling: Recent Experience, by Peter M. Keller, with Nissanke E. Weerasinghe. |
May 1988 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
July 1988 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
October 1988 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
April 1989 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
April 1989 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by a Staff Team from the Exchange and Trade Relations and Research Departments. |
May 1989 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
April 1986 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1986 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
July 1986 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
July 1986 | Export Credits: Developments and Prospects, by Eduard Brau, K. Burke Dillon, Chanpen Puckahtikom, and Miranda Xafa. |
October 1986 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
December 1986 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by Maxwell Watson, Russell Kincaid, Caroline Atkinson, Eliot Kalter, and David Folkerts-Landau. |
February 1987 | Recent Experience with Multilateral Official Debt Rescheduling, by K. Burke Dillon and Gumersindo Oliveros. |
April 1987 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1987 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
August 1987 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
October 1987 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
January 1988 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by Maxwell Watson, Donald Mathieson, Russell Kincaid, David Folkerts-Landau, Klaus Regling, and Caroline Atkinson. |
February 1988 | Officially Supported Export Credits: Developments and Prospects, by K. Burke Dillon and Luis Duran-Downing, with Miranda Xafa. |
April 1988 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
May 1988 | Multilateral Official Debt Rescheduling: Recent Experience, by Peter M. Keller, with Nissanke E. Weerasinghe. |
May 1988 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
July 1988 | Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, by the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. |
October 1988 | World Economic Outlook: Revised Projections, by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
April 1989 | World Economic Outlook: A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund. |
April 1989 | International Capital Markets: Developments and Prospects, by a Staff Team from the Exchange and Trade Relations and Research Departments. |
May 1989 | Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook, by the Commodities Division of the Research Department. |
© 1989 International Monetary Fund
ISBN 1-55775-117-X
ISSN 0891-8805
Library of Congress catalog card number: 89-645516
Price: US$15.00
(US$10.00 university libraries, faculty members and students)
Address orders to:
External Relations Department, Publication Services
International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 20431
Contents
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Preface
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I. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects
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Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Prices in 1987 and 1988
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Comparative Prices for Petroleum, Manufactures, and Non-Fuel Primary Commodities
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Commodity Prices and Export Earnings
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Commodity Prices and Aggregate Inflation
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Commodity Trade and International Cooperation
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Outlook for Commodity Prices in 1989–90 and for the Medium Term
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II. Food Commodities
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Cereals
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Wheat
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Maize
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Rice
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Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals
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Soybeans and Soybean Products
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Palm Oil
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Coconut Oil
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Groundnuts and Groundnut Oil
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Rapeseed Oil
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Sunflowerseed Oil
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Fish Meal
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Meat
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Beef
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Lamb
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Sugar
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Bananas
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III. Beverages
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Coffee
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Tea
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Cocoa
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IV. Agricultural Raw Materials
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Hardwood
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Tobacco
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Natural Rubber
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Natural Fibers
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Cotton
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Wool
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Jute
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Sisal
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Hides
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V. Minerals and Metals
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Copper
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Aluminum
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Iron Ore
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Tin
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Nickel
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Zinc
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Lead
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Phosphate Rock
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Tables
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Section
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I.
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1. Movements in Commodity Prices and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88
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2. Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Prices, 1970–First Quarter 1989
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3. Prices for Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Exports of Industrial Countries and of Developing Countries, 1970–89
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4. Export Earnings from Nineteen Major Commodities, 1985–88
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5. Aggregate Earnings, Volumes, and Unit Values for Nineteen Major Commodity Exports of Industrial Countries and of Developing Countries, 1982–88
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6. Developing Countries: Annual Changes in Export Earnings by Volume and Unit Value, 1982–88
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II.
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7. Movements in the Prices of Food Commodities and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88
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8. Cereals: World Supply and Utilization, 1980/81–88/89
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9. Prices of Cereals, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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10. Wheat: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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11. Wheat: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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12. Maize: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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13. Maize: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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14: Rice: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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15. Rice: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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16. Price of Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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17. Major Oilseeds (Oil Equivalent): World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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18. Major Oilseeds (Meal Equivalent): World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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19. Soybeans: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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20. Soybean Oil: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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21. Soybean Meal: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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22. Palm Oil: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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23. Soybeans: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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24. Soybean Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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25. Soybean Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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26. Palm Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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27. Rapeseed: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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28. Rapeseed Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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29. Rapeseed Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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30. Sunflowerseed: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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31. Sunflowerseed Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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32. Sunflowerseed Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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33. Prices of Beef and Lamb, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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34. Beef and Veal: World Production, 1985–89
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35. Prices of Sugar, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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36. Sugar: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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37. U.S. Sugar Quota Allocations 1982/83–First Quarter 1989
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38. European Community: Sugar Quota Allocations, 1982/83–88/89
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39. Sugar: World Trade, 1985–88
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40. Bananas: Prices in Selected Markets, 1985–March 1989
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III.
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41. Prices of Beverages, 1979–First Quarter, 1989
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42. Movements in the Prices of Beverages and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88
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43. Coffee: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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44. Coffee: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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45. Tea: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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46. Tea: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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47. Cocoa Beans: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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48. Cocoa: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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IV.
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49. Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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50. Movements in Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88
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51. Hardwood Logs and Sawnwood: World Production, 1982–88
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52. Hardwood Logs and Sawnwood: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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53. Tobacco: World Leaf Production, 1982–88
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54. Tobacco: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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55. Natural Rubber: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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56. Natural Rubber: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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57. Raw Cotton: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89
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58. Cotton: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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59. Raw Wool: World Commodity Balance and World Exports, 1982/83–88/89
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60. Jute: World Commodity Balance and World Exports, 1983/84–88/89
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V.
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61. Prices of Minerals and Metals, 1979–First Quarter 1989
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62. Movements in Prices of Minerals and Metals and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88
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63. Copper: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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64. Copper: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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65. Aluminum: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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66. Aluminum: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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67. Iron Ore: World Commodity Balance Together with Production of Pig Iron and Steel, 1982–88
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68. Iron Ore: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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69. Tin: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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70. Tin: Export Earnings, 1985–88
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71. Nickel: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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72. Zinc: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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73. Lead: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88
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74. Phosphate Rock and Products: World Production, Exports, and Market Prices, 1982–88
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Charts
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Section
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I.
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1. Prices in SDRs for Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, Petroleum, and Manufactures, First Quarter 1970–First Quarter 1989
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2. Prices in SDRs for Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, January 1980–April 1989
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3. Non-Fuel Commodity Prices in Real Terms and Beginning Stocks Measured in Months of Consumption, 1980–89
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II.
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4. Food Commodity Prices in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989
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III.
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5. Prices of Beverages in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989
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IV.
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6. Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989
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V.
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7. Prices of Minerals and Metals in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989
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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
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… to indicate that data are not available;
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— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
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- between years or months (e.g., 1984–85 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
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/ between years (e.g., 1985/86) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
Preface
This study provides an analysis of the market developments in 1988 with respect to primary commodities and the outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. Attention is focused on the major non-fuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Similar studies have been published by the International Monetary Fund annually since May 1986. In addition, developments with respect to non-fuel primary commodities are examined in the broader context of the World Economic Outlook published by the Fund in April of each year. The World Economic Outlook also contains a detailed assessment of the world oil situation.
This study has been prepared by the staff of the Commodities Division of the Research Department. It has benefited from comments made by other Fund staff members and from the editing of Juanita Roushdy of the External Relations Department. The analyses undertaken and the projections made are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Fund. The study is based on information available through May 1989.
It should be noted that the term “country” used in this report does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. The term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.