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Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of the market developments in 1988 with respect to primary commodities and the outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. Attention is focused on the major nonfuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Movements in the overall price index and in price indices for the major groups of commodities have been mirrored by an inverse movement in stocks of commodities. Beginning-of-year stocks of all nonfuel commodities—measured in terms of months of consumption—increased during the first half of the 1980s and peaked in 1986. Movements in primary commodity prices convey important information in several ways: they signal changes in the major source of export earnings for most developing countries; they indicate changes in a significant component of the cost of producing many manufactured goods; and they may be a helpful leading indicator of changes in inflation in industrial countries. The negotiating groups established for the Uruguay Round met on a number of occasions throughout the year to discuss a wide range of issues.

World Economic and Financial Surveys

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© 1989 International Monetary Fund

ISBN 1-55775-117-X

ISSN 0891-8805

Library of Congress catalog card number: 89-645516

Price: US$15.00

(US$10.00 university libraries, faculty members and students)

Address orders to:

External Relations Department, Publication Services

International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 20431

Contents

  • Preface

  • I. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects

    • Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Prices in 1987 and 1988

    • Comparative Prices for Petroleum, Manufactures, and Non-Fuel Primary Commodities

    • Commodity Prices and Export Earnings

    • Commodity Prices and Aggregate Inflation

    • Commodity Trade and International Cooperation

    • Outlook for Commodity Prices in 1989–90 and for the Medium Term

  • II. Food Commodities

    • Cereals

      • Wheat

      • Maize

      • Rice

    • Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals

      • Soybeans and Soybean Products

      • Palm Oil

      • Coconut Oil

      • Groundnuts and Groundnut Oil

      • Rapeseed Oil

      • Sunflowerseed Oil

      • Fish Meal

    • Meat

      • Beef

      • Lamb

    • Sugar

    • Bananas

  • III. Beverages

    • Coffee

    • Tea

    • Cocoa

  • IV. Agricultural Raw Materials

    • Hardwood

    • Tobacco

    • Natural Rubber

    • Natural Fibers

      • Cotton

      • Wool

      • Jute

      • Sisal

    • Hides

  • V. Minerals and Metals

    • Copper

    • Aluminum

    • Iron Ore

    • Tin

    • Nickel

    • Zinc

    • Lead

    • Phosphate Rock

  • Tables

  • Section

  • I.

    • 1. Movements in Commodity Prices and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88

    • 2. Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Prices, 1970–First Quarter 1989

    • 3. Prices for Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Exports of Industrial Countries and of Developing Countries, 1970–89

    • 4. Export Earnings from Nineteen Major Commodities, 1985–88

    • 5. Aggregate Earnings, Volumes, and Unit Values for Nineteen Major Commodity Exports of Industrial Countries and of Developing Countries, 1982–88

    • 6. Developing Countries: Annual Changes in Export Earnings by Volume and Unit Value, 1982–88

  • II.

    • 7. Movements in the Prices of Food Commodities and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88

    • 8. Cereals: World Supply and Utilization, 1980/81–88/89

    • 9. Prices of Cereals, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 10. Wheat: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 11. Wheat: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 12. Maize: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 13. Maize: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 14: Rice: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 15. Rice: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 16. Price of Vegetable Oils and Protein Meals, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 17. Major Oilseeds (Oil Equivalent): World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 18. Major Oilseeds (Meal Equivalent): World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 19. Soybeans: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 20. Soybean Oil: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 21. Soybean Meal: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 22. Palm Oil: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 23. Soybeans: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 24. Soybean Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 25. Soybean Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 26. Palm Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 27. Rapeseed: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 28. Rapeseed Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 29. Rapeseed Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 30. Sunflowerseed: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 31. Sunflowerseed Oil: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 32. Sunflowerseed Meal: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 33. Prices of Beef and Lamb, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 34. Beef and Veal: World Production, 1985–89

    • 35. Prices of Sugar, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 36. Sugar: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 37. U.S. Sugar Quota Allocations 1982/83–First Quarter 1989

    • 38. European Community: Sugar Quota Allocations, 1982/83–88/89

    • 39. Sugar: World Trade, 1985–88

    • 40. Bananas: Prices in Selected Markets, 1985–March 1989

  • III.

    • 41. Prices of Beverages, 1979–First Quarter, 1989

    • 42. Movements in the Prices of Beverages and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88

    • 43. Coffee: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 44. Coffee: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 45. Tea: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 46. Tea: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 47. Cocoa Beans: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 48. Cocoa: Export Earnings, 1985–88

  • IV.

    • 49. Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 50. Movements in Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88

    • 51. Hardwood Logs and Sawnwood: World Production, 1982–88

    • 52. Hardwood Logs and Sawnwood: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 53. Tobacco: World Leaf Production, 1982–88

    • 54. Tobacco: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 55. Natural Rubber: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 56. Natural Rubber: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 57. Raw Cotton: World Commodity Balance, 1982/83–88/89

    • 58. Cotton: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 59. Raw Wool: World Commodity Balance and World Exports, 1982/83–88/89

    • 60. Jute: World Commodity Balance and World Exports, 1983/84–88/89

  • V.

    • 61. Prices of Minerals and Metals, 1979–First Quarter 1989

    • 62. Movements in Prices of Minerals and Metals and Related Economic Indicators, 1982–88

    • 63. Copper: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 64. Copper: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 65. Aluminum: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 66. Aluminum: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 67. Iron Ore: World Commodity Balance Together with Production of Pig Iron and Steel, 1982–88

    • 68. Iron Ore: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 69. Tin: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 70. Tin: Export Earnings, 1985–88

    • 71. Nickel: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 72. Zinc: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 73. Lead: World Commodity Balance, 1982–88

    • 74. Phosphate Rock and Products: World Production, Exports, and Market Prices, 1982–88

  • Charts

  • Section

  • I.

    • 1. Prices in SDRs for Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, Petroleum, and Manufactures, First Quarter 1970–First Quarter 1989

    • 2. Prices in SDRs for Non-Fuel Primary Commodities, January 1980–April 1989

    • 3. Non-Fuel Commodity Prices in Real Terms and Beginning Stocks Measured in Months of Consumption, 1980–89

  • II.

    • 4. Food Commodity Prices in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989

  • III.

    • 5. Prices of Beverages in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989

  • IV.

    • 6. Prices of Agricultural Raw Materials in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989

  • V.

    • 7. Prices of Minerals and Metals in SDRs, January 1980–April 1989

The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:

  • … to indicate that data are not available;

  • — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;

  • - between years or months (e.g., 1984–85 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

  • / between years (e.g., 1985/86) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.

“Billion” means a thousand million.

Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

Preface

This study provides an analysis of the market developments in 1988 with respect to primary commodities and the outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. Attention is focused on the major non-fuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Similar studies have been published by the International Monetary Fund annually since May 1986. In addition, developments with respect to non-fuel primary commodities are examined in the broader context of the World Economic Outlook published by the Fund in April of each year. The World Economic Outlook also contains a detailed assessment of the world oil situation.

This study has been prepared by the staff of the Commodities Division of the Research Department. It has benefited from comments made by other Fund staff members and from the editing of Juanita Roushdy of the External Relations Department. The analyses undertaken and the projections made are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Fund. The study is based on information available through May 1989.

It should be noted that the term “country” used in this report does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. The term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.

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