© 1986 International Monetary Fund
International Standard Serial Number: ISSN 0251-6365
International Standard Book Number: ISBN 9780939934577
Price: US$7.50
(US$4.50 to university libraries, faculty members, and students)
Address orders to:
External Relations Department, Attention Publications
International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C. 20431
Contents
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PREFATORY NOTE
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I Introduction
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II Definition and Measurement of the Effects of Programs
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III Characteristics of Program Countries
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Share of Program Countries in World Trade
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Trade Interdependence Among Program Countries
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Share of Program Countries in World Capital Flows
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Size of Initial Changes in Program Countries
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IV Global Effects of Changes in Imports in Program Countries
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Simulation Results
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Summary
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V Global Effects of Changes in Exchange Rates of Program Countries
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Differentiated versus Homogeneous Goods in International Trade
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Empirical Evidence
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Changing Commodity Composition of Trade in Developing Countries
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Primary Commodity Trade
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Role of Industrial Countries
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Summary
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VI Aggregation and Interdependence Effects in the Fund’s Operations
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Consistency and Aggregation of Policies Across Countries
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Information on Other Countries’ Policies
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Waivers and Modifications in Fund-Supported Programs
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Summary
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VII Conclusions
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SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
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TABLES
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Section
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II
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1. Before-After Comparisons of Macroeconomic Outcomes for Program Countries, 1973–83
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2. Actual Results and Targets for 1981 Program Countries
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3. Forecast and Actual Non-Program Variables, 1981–82
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4. Macroeconomic Outcomes in Program and Non-Program Countries in Year Prior to Program Period, 1973–83
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5. Policy Content of 1980 Fund-Supported Programs
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III
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6. Share of Program Countries in World Trade, 1973–83
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7. Share of Total Exports of Individual Countries or Groups Going to Program Countries, 1973–83
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8. Commodity Structure of Imports and Exports: 1983 Program Countries and Other Country Groups
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9. Share of Trade Among 1983 Program Countries
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10. Trade Interdependence Among Selected 1983 Latin American Program Countries
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11. Commodity Composition of Trade Among Non-Oil Developing Countries and Between These and Industrial Countries, 1977
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12. Non-Oil Developing Countries: Changes in External Liabilities, 1973–83
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13. Program Countries’ Share of the External Debt of Non-Oil Developing Countries, 1977–83
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14. International Bond Issues and Placements, 1978–83
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15. External Lending by and Deposit Taking of Commercial Banks, 1978–83
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16. Average Size of Changes in Program Countries, 1975–83
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IV
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17. Effects on Real Output and the Trade Balance of a $20 Billion Decline in Imports by Non-OECD Regions: Interlink Model
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18. Effects on Merchandise Trade Balances in Industrial Countries of a $20 Billion Decline in Imports by Non-Oil Developing Countries: IMF World Trade Model
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19. Effects on Real Output and Trade Balance of a $20 Billion Decline in Financial Transfers to Non-Oil Developing Countries: Project LINK Model
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V
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20. Changing Commodity Composition of Developing-Country Exports, 1960 and 1981
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21. Merchandise Exports of Non-Oil Developing Countries: Changes in Commodity Composition, 1968–70 and 1979–81
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22. Value of World Merchandise Exports: Changes in the Shares of Country Groups Between 1968–70 and 1979–81
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23. Shares of Developing Countries in World Production, Consumption, Exports, and Imports for 23 Individual Primary Commodities, 1980
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24. Estimates of Supply-Price Elasticities for Primary Commodities
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25. Indices of Export and Import Market Power
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26. Estimates of Long-Run Price and Activity Elasticities for Import Categories in Industrial Countries
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CHARTS
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Section
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III
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1. Concentration of International Bank Claims, 1973–83
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VI
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2. Interactions in the Elaboration of the Short-Term Projections of the World Economic Outlook
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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
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… to indicate that data are not available;
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— to indicate that the figure in zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
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– between years or months (e.g., 1979–81 or January-June) to indicate the years of months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
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/ between years (e.g., 1980/81) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
Prefatory Note
This is the second of a group of papers dealing with various aspects of Fund-supported adjustment programs. The other two, Fund-Supported Adjustment Programs and Economic Growth by Mohsin S. Khan and Malcolm D. Knight of the Fund’s Research Department, and Fund-Supported Programs, Fiscal Policy, and Income Distribution by the Fiscal Affairs Department, are also being published in the Fund’s Occasional Paper Series. The three papers were the basis for a discussion at a seminar held in the Fund’s Executive Board in July 1985, and the published versions reflect the comments and suggestions made at that time by Executive Directors. The views expressed in the present study are the author’s alone, however, and should not necessarily be attributed to Executive Directors or to the Fund.
The present paper was prepared in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund by Morris Goldstein. The paper was edited by Joslin Landell-Mills of the Fund’s External Relations Department.
It is to be noted that the term “country” used in this document does not, in all cases, refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. The term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate independent basis.