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Abstract

A Development Emergency: the title of this year's Global Monitoring Report, the sixth in an annual series, could not be more apt. The global economic crisis, the most severe since the Great Depression, is rapidly turning into a human and development crisis. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have the least cushion to withstand events. The crisis, coming on the heels of the food and fuel crises, poses serious threats to their hard-won gains in boosting economic growth and reducing poverty. It is pushing millions back into poverty and putting at risk the very survival of many. The prospect of reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant. A global crisis must be met with a global response. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. At the same time, strong and urgent actions are needed to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries and help them restore strong growth while protecting the poor. Global Monitoring Report 2009, prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, provides a development perspective on the global economic crisis. It assesses the impact on developing countries, their growth, poverty reduction, and other MDGs. And it sets out priorities for policy response, both by developing countries themselves and by the international community. This report also focuses on the ways in which the private sector can be better mobilized in support of development goals, especially in the aftermath of the crisis.

© 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank

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Washington DC 20433

Telephone: 202-473-1000

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All rights reserved

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This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank, the Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund, or the governments they represent.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank or the International Monetary Fund concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

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All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.

ISBN: 978-0-8213-7859-5

eISBN: 978-0-8213-7860-1

DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-7859-5

Cover photo: © Jason Hosking/Zefa/Corbis.

Cover design by Critical Stages.

The annex to this book contains DataLinks, a feature that provides access to the Excel files corresponding to each figure. To make use of this feature, simply locate the link below each figure (beginning with http://dx.doi.org), and type it into your Internet browser.

Contents

  • Foreword

  • Acknowledgments

  • Abbreviations

  • Overview

  • MDGs: Crisis Impact and Outlook

  • 1 The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Developing Countries

  • 2 Improving the Private Investment Climate for Recovery and Growth

  • 3 Leveraging the Private Sector Role in Human Development

  • 4 Scaling Up Aid to Poor Countries

  • 5 Pressing Ahead with Trade Openness

  • 6 International Financial Institutions: Crisis Response and Support for the Private Sector

  • References

  • Annex: Monitoring the MDGs: Selected Indicators

  • Boxes

  • 1 Responding to a development emergency: priorities for action

  • 1 New estimates of global poverty

  • 1.1 The financial crisis

  • 1.2 Increasing exchange rate volatility and the financial market crisis

  • 1.3 Commodity exporters: how to deal with increased price volatility?

  • 1.4 The quality of macroeconomic policies in low-income countries

  • 1.5 The impact of the crisis on selected countries

  • 1.6 Bailing out the world’s poorest

  • 1.7 The Financial Sector Assessment Program

  • 1.8 Common regulatory and supervisory shortcomings identified in recent FSAP reports

  • 2.1 Independent Evaluation Group reviews Doing Business

  • 2.2 Business environment reforms matter

  • 2.3 Adding a gender dimension to the measures of regulation

  • 2.4 Relative impact of economic and financial development on MDGs

  • 2.5 Microfinance: reaching out to the poor but with limits

  • 2.6 Access to financial services: evidence from the subprime mortgage market

  • 3.1 Examples of innovative approaches to expand access to health services via the nongovernment sector

  • 3.2 Systemic involvement of the private sector in the public provision of education: vouchers in Chile

  • 3.3 Contracting out education programs: Bangladesh and Côte d’Ivoire

  • 3.4 Public-private partnerships for specific education programs: Colombia and Pakistan

  • 3.5 The growing role of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in global health

  • 3.6 Leveraging corporate finance for disease control

  • 3.7 The Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee: An emerging global NGO

  • 3.8 The experience of the Global Education Alliance in Rwanda

  • 4.1 The indirect impact of the crisis on aid flows

  • 4.2 Contributions of private actors to development in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 4.3 Advanced market commitments: promoting private investments by leveraging public funds

  • 4.4 The Adaptation Fund: country ownership in adaptation finance

  • 4.5 Results from low-income country debt sustainability analyses

  • 5.1 Trade policies: A taproot of the global food price crisis

  • 6.1 Stolen Asset Recovery Initiative

  • 6.2 World Bank Group’s Vulnerability Framework

  • 6.3 MDBs and trade finance

  • 6.4 IFC response to the crisis

  • 6.5 MIGA’s contributions to supporting investment in developing countries

  • 6.6 EBRD’s micro- and small enterprise lending program

  • 6.7 World Bank’s Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan and the Infrastructure Recovery and Assets Platform

  • Figures

  • 1 MDGs at the global level: serious shortfalls loom on human development goals

  • 2 Fragile states have made the least progress toward the MDGs

  • 3 Most countries are falling short of most MDGs

  • 4 The decline in the number of people living in extreme poverty is largely attributable to East Asia, China in particular

  • 1.1 World trade in goods and services

  • 1.2 Commodity price indexes

  • 1.3 Bond spreads and issues of international bonds in emerging markets and developing countries

  • 1.4 Daily spot exchange rates, national currency per U.S. dollar

  • 1.5 Vulnerabilities in emerging and developing countries

  • 1.6 Terms-of-trade changes per quintile group

  • 1.7 Real 2009 per capita growth rate adjusted for terms-of-trade changes

  • 1.8 Official current transfers, 2008-09

  • 1.9 Current account balances, 2008-09

  • 1.10 Government balances, 2008-09

  • 2.1 Key constraints on firms vary by country income level

  • 2.2 The ease of doing business varies widely

  • 2.3 Most regions are improving their regulatory indicators over time

  • 2.4 Regulatory reform is more common in some areas than in others

  • 2.5 Access to finance varies by country income and size of firm

  • 2.6 Many firms say lack of access to financing hampers their growth

  • 2.7 Financial and economic development does not guarantee access to finance

  • 2.8 Most financial systems are small

  • 2.9 Availability of credit information varies greatly

  • 2.10 Exponential growth of telecommunications services in all regions

  • 2.11 Inadequate infrastructure constrains business

  • 2.12 The business cost of inadequate infrastructure can be high

  • 2.13 First priority corridors in West Africa: Checkpoints, bribes, and delays

  • 2.14 The rise and fall of private investment in infrastructure

  • 3.1 Private and out-of-pocket shares of health expenditure

  • 3.2 Use of private maternal and child health care services, Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

  • 3.3 Public and private providers of TB services in 22 high-burden countries.

  • 3.4 Trends in the use of private providers in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

  • 3.5 Probability of using private health care providers by whole population and the lowest two asset quintiles in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

  • 3.6 Private spending on education

  • 3.7 Private enrollment share by region, 2006

  • 3.8 Private enrollment share by national income, 2006

  • 4.1 DAC members’ net ODA 1990-2008

  • 4.2 Increase in donor financing for infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 4.3 Gap between forward aid plans and required increases

  • 4.4 Financial crisis and aid response

  • 4.5 Ratios of public debt and ODA to gross national income for 22 DAC donors, 1980–2007

  • 4.6 Dependence on aid remains high in low-income countries

  • 4.7 Quality of PFM systems affects donors’ use of those systems

  • 4.8 Private grants data: undercounting philanthropy

  • 4.9 Trends in U.S. foundations’ assets and giving

  • 4.10 Average debt service and poverty-reducing expenditures

  • 4.11 The DeMPA tool: assessing core functions of public debt management

  • 5.1 Robust trade growth turned negative in most regions by late 2008

  • 5.2 World trade will contract in 2009

  • 5.3 Baltic Exchange Dry Index

  • 5.4 New insurance commitments (medium- and long-term) reported by Berne Union members on selected countries

  • 5.5 Cost of trade finance in selected emerging markets

  • 5.6 Growth of antidumping cases

  • 5.7 OTRI and TTRI by income group, 2007

  • 5.8 OTRI and TTRI by region, 2007

  • 5.9 OTRI of the four largest traders, 2007

  • 5.10 Change of OTRI by income group and region, 2002–07

  • 5.11 MA-OTRI by region, 2007

  • 5.12 Change in MA-OTRI by region, 2002–07

  • 5.13 Restrictiveness of services trade policies by region, 2008

  • 5.14 Restrictiveness of services trade policies by region and sector, 2008

  • 5.15 Aid-for-trade commitments: annual averages for 2002–05, and totals for 2006 and 2007

  • 5.16 Commitments of aid for trade by region, income group, and category, average 2002–07

  • 6.1 MDB gross disbursements, 2000–08

  • 6.2 MDB gross disbursements to nonsovereign borrowers, by region, 2000–08

  • 6.3 Financial Sector Assessment Program country coverage

  • 6.4 Effectiveness and future importance of donor institutions

  • Tables

  • 1.1 Summary of world output

  • 1.2 Net capital flows

  • 1.3 Inflows of international remittances

  • 1.4 Measures implemented during financial turmoil, by country

  • 1.5 Short-term poverty outlook

  • 1.6 Longer-term poverty outlook

  • 2.1 Weak implementation and enforcement can increase the regulatory burden

  • 2.2 Access to infrastructure is improving but still lags seriously in some regions

  • 2.3 Africa’s infrastructure deficit is widening compared with other regions

  • 2.4 Water and electricity services are often underpriced

  • 2.5 Closing the infrastructure financing gap in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 2.6 Overview of experience with private participation in infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa

  • 3.1 Matrix of financing and delivery arrangements in health and education

  • 3.2 Matrix of government capacities needed to manage various finance and delivery models

  • 3.3 Private enrollment shares in education, selected countries, 1990 and 2006

  • 4.1 Current dedicated resources for climate change in developing countries

  • 5.1 Trade distorting actions taken in selected countries

  • 5.2 Measures of domestic trade costs (averages by country group)

  • 5.3 Effects of convergence by low-income countries to middle-income average

  • 5.4 Aid-for-trade commitments: annual averages 2002–05 and totals for 2006 and 2007

  • 6.1 Selected elements of IFI support to the private sector

  • 6.2 Examples of IFI crisis response programs in 2008

  • 6.3 Paris Declaration survey results, 2008

Foreword

The title of this year’s Global Monitoring Report is “A Development Emergency.” Appropriately so. We are in the midst of a global financial crisis for which there has been no equal in over 70 years. It is a dangerous time. The financial crisis that grew into an economic crisis is now becoming an unemployment crisis. It risks becoming a human and social crisis—with political implications. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have much less cushion to withstand events. This poses serious threats to the hard-won gains in boosting the economic growth of many developing countries, especially in Africa, as well as achieving progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It also poses a threat to global recovery, because developing countries can provide a growth platform to help the global economy pull out of the crisis.

Middle-income countries were the first among developing countries to feel the impact of the financial crisis, given their heavier reliance on private capital flows. Private capital flows to the developing world are seeing their sharpest decline in many decades. Both middle- and low-income countries will be hit hard in 2009 by a second wave of effects reflecting the global recession and declining world trade. Poor countries will be affected through reductions in export volumes, commodity prices, remittances, tourism, foreign direct investment, and possibly even foreign aid. These shocks will hurt public revenues, constricting fiscal space for public programs.

Economic growth in developing countries has declined sharply to the lowest rates for some decades; per capita incomes will fall in many countries. Sub-Saharan Africa will see a rise in the poverty count in 2009, with the more fragile and low-growth economies especially at risk. Globally, we estimate that because of the crisis there will be more than 50 million additional people living in extreme poverty in 2009 than expected before the crisis, compounding the impact from soaring food and fuel prices of recent years.

These numbers have a human face. We estimate that as a result of sharply lower economic growth rates, about 200,000 to 400,000 more babies may die each year. School enrollments will suffer—especially for girls. The prospect of reaching the MDGs by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant.

A global crisis requires a global solution. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. This calls for timely, adequate, and coordinated actions by developed countries to restore confidence in the financial system and counter falling demand. At the same time, we need strong and urgent actions to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries by helping them to boost growth while protecting the poor. The report sets out six priority areas for action to confront the development emergency that now faces many of these countries.

First, we must ensure an adequate fiscal response in developing countries to protect the poor and vulnerable groups and to support economic growth. Priority areas must be strengthening social safety nets and protecting infrastructure programs that can create jobs while building a foundation for future productivity and growth. The precise fiscal response needs to be tailored to individual country circumstances, consistent with maintenance of macroeconomic stability. Second, we must provide support for the private sector and improve the climate for recovery and growth in private investment, including paying special attention to strengthening financial systems. Helping small and medium enterprises get access to finance for trade and investment is vital for job creation. But the crisis has also underscored the importance of broader reforms to improve the stability and soundness of the financial system. Third, we must redouble efforts in human development and recover lost ground in progress toward the MDGs. We can do this not only by strengthening key public programs for health and education, but also by better leveraging the private sector’s role in the financing and delivery of services.

In support of these efforts to help developing countries, the report emphasizes three key global priorities. Donors must deliver on their commitments to increase aid. Indeed, the increased needs of poor countries hit hard by the crisis call for going beyond existing commitments. National governments must hold firm against rising protectionist pressures and maintain an open international trade and finance system. Completing the Doha negotiations expedi-tiously would provide a much-needed boost in confidence to the global economy at a time of high stress and uncertainty. Finally, multilateral institutions must have the mandate, resources, and instruments to support an effective global response to the global crisis. The international financial institutions will need to play a key role in bridging the large financing gap for developing countries resulting from the slump in private capital flows, including using their leverage ability to help revive private flows.

World leaders made important progress in coordinating a global response to the crisis at the recently held summit of the Group of Twenty countries. This must be followed by strong, concerted actions. The need for international cooperation has never been greater.

Robert B. Zoellick

President

The World Bank Group

Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Managing Director

International Monetary Fund

Acknowledgments

This report has been prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In preparing the report, staff have collaborated closely with partner institutions—the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and other UN agencies. The cooperation and support of staff of these institutions are gratefully acknowledged.

Zia Qureshi was the lead author and manager of the report. The core team for the report included Felipe Barrera, Peter Berman, Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Punam Chuhan-Pole, Stefano Curto, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Homi Kharas (World Bank) and Stijn Claessens, Richard Harmsen, Laura Kodres, Andrea Maechler, and Axel Palmason (IMF). Other significant contributions were made by Katharina Gassner, Arthur Karlin, and Linda Lee (World Bank) and Alberto Espejo, Emmanuel Hife, and Ioana Niculcea (IMF). Sachin Shahria assisted with the overall preparation and coordination of the report. The work was carried out under the general guidance of Justin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank.

A number of other staff and consultants made valuable contributions, including the following from the World Bank: Philippe Ambrosi, Uranbileg Batjargal, Amie Batson, Iwona Borowik, Penelope Brooks, Andrew Burns, Shaohua Chen, Robert Cull, Susan Davis, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, Shanthi Divakaran, Simeon Djankov, Sharon Felzer, Ariel Fiszbein, Vivien Foster, Caroline Freund, Boris Gamarra, Alan Gelb, Navin Girishankar, Neil Gregory, Juliana Guaqueta, April Harding, Masako Hiraga, Bernard Hoekman, Ludwina Joseph, Johannes Sebastian Kiess, Stephen Knack, Gerard Martin La Forgia, Gina Lagomarsino, Benjamin Loevinsohn, Knut Lonnroth, Mattias Lundberg, Frank Lysy, Mariem Malouche, Aaditya Mattoo, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Inez Mikkelsen-Lopez, Dominic Montague, Marisela Montoliu-Munoz, Joyce Msuya, Richard Newfarmer, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, Harry Patrinos, Emilio Porta, Abha Prasad, Alexander Preker, Martin Ravallion, Lulu Shui, Eric Swanson, Nigel Twose, Marilou Uy, Daniel Villar, Dileep Wagle, and Elizabeth White.

Other contributors from the IMF included Elif Aksoy, Alexandre Chailloux, Peter Dattels, and Deniz Igan.

Contributors from other institutions included: Gaston Gohou, Ellen Goldstein, Josephine Kiyenje, and Timothy Turner (AfDB); Indu Bhushan, Christopher Maccormac, Manju Senapaty, and Gina Marie Umali (ADB); Yannis Arvanitis, Gary Bond, and James Earwicker (EBRD); Nathaniel Jackson and Max Pulgar-Vidal (IDB); Yasmin Ahmad, Simon Scott, and Suzanne Steensen (OECD); and Alessandro Nicita (UNCTAD).

Guidance received from the Executive Directors of the World Bank and the IMF and their staff during discussions of the draft report is gratefully acknowledged. The report also benefited from many useful comments and suggestions received from the Bank and Fund management and staff in the course of its preparation and review.

The World Bank’s Office of the Publisher managed the editorial services, design, production, and printing of the report, with Susan Graham anchoring the process. Others assisting with the report’s publication included Denise Bergeron, Martha Gottron, Nancy Lammers, Stephen McGroarty, Santiago Pombo-Bejarano, Kirsten Dennison and associates of Precision Graphics, and Bill Pragluski of Critical Stages.

The report’s dissemination and outreach was coordinated by Merrell Tuck-Primdahl, working with Prianka Nandy, Kavita Watsa, and Roula Yazigi.

Abbreviations

ACP

African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries

ADB

Asian Development Bank

AfDB

African Development Bank

AIDS

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome

AMC

Advanced Market Commitment

CCT

Conditional cash transfer

CDM

Clean Development Mechanism

CERs

Certified emissions reductions

COMPAS

Common preference assessment system

CPA

Country programmable aid

CPIA

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment

CRS

Creditor Reporting System (of the OECD DAC)

CSR

Corporate social responsibility

DAC

Development Assistance Committee

DRF

Debt Reduction Facility (of the World Bank)

EBRD

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

EC

European Commission

EITI

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization (of the UN)

FDI

Foreign direct investment

FSAP

Financial Sector Assessment Program

G-8

Group of Eight

G-20

Group of Twenty

GAVI

Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations

GDP

Gross domestic product

GEF

Global Environmental Facility

GFATM

Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria

GHG

Greenhouse gases

GNI

Gross national income

HIPC

Heavily indebted poor country/countries

HIV

Human immunodeficiency virus

IBRD

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

ICP

International Comparison Program

IDA

International Development Association (of the World Bank)

IDB

Inter-American Development Bank

IEA

International Energy Agency

IFC

International Finance Corporation

IFI

International financial institutions

IFFIm

International Finance Facility for Immunizations

IHP

International Health Partnership

ILO

International Labour Organization

IMF

International Monetary Fund

ITC

International Trade Centre

LDCs

Least-developed countries

MDBs

Multilateral development banks

MDG

Millennium Development Goal

MDRI

Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative

MFIs

Microfinance institutions

MSE

Micro- and small enterprise

NAMA

Nonagricultural market access

NEPAD

New Partnership or African Development

NGOs

Nongovernmental organizations

NTM

Nontariff measure

ODA

Official development assistance

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

OTRI

Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index

PFM

Public financial management

PPIAF

Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility

PPP

Purchasing power parity

PTA

Preferential trade agreement

SIAP

Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan

SME

Small and medium enterprises

SWF

Sovereign wealth fund

TTRI

Tariff Trade Restrictiveness Index

UN

United Nations

UNDP

UN Development Programme

UNFCCC

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

WFP

World Food Programme

WHO

World Health Organization

WTO

World Trade Organization

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