Title Page

Also by Wanda Tseng

CHINA: Competing in the Global Economy (co-editor M. Rodlauer)

Frontmatter Page

View Full Size

• Download Figure
• Download figure as PowerPoint slide

© International Monetary Fund 2005

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission.

No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP.

Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published in hardcover 2005

First published in paperback 2007 by

PALGRAVE MACMILLAN

Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and

175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010

Companies and representatives throughout the world.

PALGRAVE MACMILLAN is the global academic imprint of the Palgrave Macmillan division of St. Martin’s Press, LLC and of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. Macmillan^® is a registered trademark in the United States, United Kingdom and other countries. Palgrave is a registered trademark in the European Union and other countries.

ISBN-13: 978–1–4039–4351–4 hardback

ISBN-10: 1–4039–4351–6 hardback

ISBN-13: 978–0–230–54281–5 paperback

ISBN-10:0–230–54281–6 paperback

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

India’s and China’s recent experience with reform and growth / edited by Wanda Tseng and David Cowen.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 1–4039–4351–6 (cloth) ISBN 0–230–54281–6 (paper)

1. India—Economic policy. 2. India—Economic conditions. 3. China—Economic policy. 4. China—Economic conditions. I. Tseng, Wanda. II. Cowen, David, 1960–

HC435.3.153 2005

338.951’009’045—dc22

2005047037

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07

Printed and bound in Great Britain by

Antony Rowe Ltd, Chippenham and Eastbourne

Contents

• List of Tables

• List of Figures

• List of Boxes

• List of Abbreviations

• Acknowledgments

• Preface

• Notes on Contributors

• 1 India and China: An Essay in Comparative Political Economy

  • Meghnad Desai

  • 1.1 Introduction

  • 1.2 Historical legacies

  • 1.3 Development paths

  • 1.4 Speculations and counterfactuals

  • 1.5 Can China combine capitalism with one party rule?

  • 1.6 Can India catch up with China?

  • 1.7 Conclusion

• 2 India’s Growth Experience

  • Kanhaiya Singh and Suman Bery

  • 2.1 Introduction

  • 2.2 India in the global context

  • 2.3 Growth over half a century: an overview

  • 2.4 Structural shifts in output: a closer look

  • 2.5 Sources of growth: analysis of the aggregate data

  • 2.6 Overall assessment and concluding remarks

• 3 China’s Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction (1978–2002)

  • Hu Angang, Hu Linlin, and Chang Zhixiao

  • 3.1 Introduction

  • 3.2 Trends in and evaluation of poverty reduction (1978–2002)

  • 3.3 Slowing poverty reduction in the 1990s: an analysis

  • 3.4 New strategies for poverty reduction (2003–15)

• 4 Reform Strategies in the Indian Financial Sector

  • Saugata Bhattacharya and Urjit R. Patel

  • 4.1 Introduction

  • 4.2 Reform in the financial sector

  • 4.3 Deconstructing the reform strategy

  • 4.4 A good beginning, but … aspects of financial intermediation

  • 4.5 Conclusion

• 5 Financial System Reform and Economic Development in China

  • Chen Yuan

• 6 Bank Financing in India

  • Abhijit Banerjee, Shawn Cole, and Esther Duflo

  • 6.1 Introduction

  • 6.2 Is there underlending?

  • 6.3 Lending practice in India

  • 6.4 Understanding lending practices

  • 6.5 Conclusion—policy responses

• 7 Trade Liberalization and Its Role in Chinese Economic Growth

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

  • 7.1 Introduction

  • 7.2 Trade liberalization in China

  • 7.3 Effects of competitiveness on openness

  • 7.4 Conclusion

• 8 India in the 1980s and the 1990s: A Triumph of Reforms

  • Arvind Panagariya

  • 8.1 Introduction

  • 8.2 The fragility of growth in the 1980s

  • 8.3 Connection to liberalization

  • 8.4 Unsustainable public expenditure and external borrowing

  • 8.5 A brief look at the 1990s

  • 8.6 Looking ahead: why India lags behind China

  • 8.7 Conclusion

• 9 Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence

  • Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei, and M. Ayhan Kose

  • 9.1 Overview

  • 9.2 Basic stylized facts

  • 9.3 Financial integration and economic growth

  • 9.4 Financial globalization and macroeconomic volatility

  • 9.5 Select factors in the benefits and risks of globalization

  • 9.6 Conclusion

• 10 Understanding India’s Services Revolution

  • James Gordon and Poonam Gupta

  • 10.1 Introduction

  • 10.2 Growth and sectoral shares: cross-country experiences

  • 10.3 Which services have grown rapidly?

  • 10.4 Explaining services sector growth

  • 10.5 Empirical tests of competing hypotheses

  • 10.6 Summary and conclusion

• 11 Capital Account Controls and Liberalization: Lessons for India and China

  • Jonathan Anderson

  • 11.1 Capital controls in emerging markets

  • 11.2 Do capital controls “work”?

  • 11.3 The lessons of liberalization

  • 11.4 The experiences of China and India

  • 11.5 China versus India—who wins?

  • 11.6 Summary lessons for China and India

• 12 Capital Account Liberalization: The Indian Experience

  • Narendra Jadhav

  • 12.1 Introduction

  • 12.2 Costs and benefits, preconditions and sequencing

  • 12.3 Cross-country perspective

  • 12.4 The Indian approach

  • 12.5 Conclusion

List of Tables

• 1.1 Share of world output and population

• 1.2 Human development indices, 1950–2000

• 2.1 Select economic indictors of major economies

• 2.2 Evolving economic structure of India and select comparator countries

• 2.3 India: GDP growth and outliers, 1951/52–2002/03

• 2.4 India: terms of prime ministers and years of general elections

• 2.5 India: average growth rates and real GDP shares by sectors, 1951/52–2002/03

• 2.6 India: unorganized economy in GDP by sectors, 1971/72–2000/01

• 2.7 India: saving and investment rates, 1951/52–2002/03

• 2.8 India: gross fixed capital formation, 1951/52–2001/02

• 2.9 Cereal yield in India and select parts of the world

• 2.10 India: agricultural sector indicators, 1971/72–2002/03

• 2.11 India: industrial output, 1981/82–2003/04

• 2.12 India: services GDP, 1981/82–2002/03

• 2.13 India: decomposition of growth, 1961/62–2001/02

• 2.14 India: alternate models of total factor productivity growth

• 2.15 India: distributed lag model of TFP and real GDP growth

• 2.16 Granger-Block non-causality test

• 3.1 China: growth, poverty reduction, and farmers’ welfare, 1978–2002

• 3.2 China: rural poverty population and poverty rates, 1978–2002

• 3.3 Number of persons living on less than US$1 per day

• 3.4 Poverty population in select Asian countries

• 3.5 World poverty population and poverty rates, 1950–99

• 3.6 China: rural households grouped by annual per capita net income, 1978–2001

• 3.7 China: population and labor force movement from rural to urban areas, 1982–2000

• 3.8 China: basic human capital indicators

• 3.9 China: national antipoverty fund, 1986–2000

• 3.10 China: official poverty line, 1978–2002

• 3.11 China: internal agricultural trade and losses, 1996–2000

• 3.12 China: total and transfer income of urban and rural residents

• 3.13 China: estimates of income distribution in rural areas, 1978–2000

• 3.14 China: average income and taxes and fees paid by income group in 1999

• 4.1 India: comparative profile of financial intermediaries and markets

• 4.2 India: decadal indicators of financial deepening

• 4.3 India: cost of bank rescues

• 4.4 India: segment-wise distribution of gross nonperforming assets

• 4.5 India: volume of activity in cash and derivatives markets in 2002/03

• 4.6 India: institutional processes in the reform strategy of the financial sector

• 4.7 India: portfolio allocation of lendable resources of scheduled commercial banks

• 4.8 Reserve Bank of India: prompt corrective action framework

• 4.9 Reserve Bank of India norms on exposure limits for banks and financial institutions

• 4.10 India: loan classification of scheduled commercial banks

• 6.1 Are firms credit constrained?

• 6.2 Bank financing—granted, maximum, and previous limits of a PSB

• 6.3 Determinants of the working capital limit and interest rate

• 6.4 Summary statistics for corruption study

• 6.5 Effect of vigilance activity on credit

• 6.6 Interest rate spreads, bank credit, and state growth

• 6.7 Nonperforming assets of priority sector borrowers at a public sector bank

• 7.1 China’s and India’s shares of global trade

• 8.1 India: real GDP growth, 1951/52–2002/03

• 8.2 India: average real GDP growth in select periods

• 8.3 India: variance of GDP growth rates, 1980s and 1990s

• 8.4 India: average growth rates of non-oil merchandise trade in select periods

• 8.5 India: non-oil merchandise exports and imports, 1970/71–1989/90

• 8.6 India: changes in protection and growth in productivity by industry classification

• 8.7 India: fiscal indicators, 1980/81–1989/90

• 8.8 India: composition of GDP

• 9.1 Fastest and slowest growing economies during 1980–2000 and financial openness

• 9.2 Volatility of annual growth rates of select variables 10.1 India: sectoral growth rates

• 10.2 Global averages of sectoral shares of GDP in 2001

• 10.3 India: sectoral shares of GDP, 1950–2003

• 10.4 India: share of services sector in employment and capital formation

• 10.5 India: services growth rates and sectoral shares

• 10.6 India: evolution of input-output coefficients

• 10.7 India: private final consumption of services

• 10.8 India: growth of services value added and final consumption and GDP

• 10.9 India: explaining services growth using time series data, 1952–2000

• 10.10 India: explaining services growth using panel data, 1970–2000

• 10.11 Sources of data and construction of variables

• 12.1 Type of capital transactions that could be subject to controls

• 12.2 India: purpose of capital controls

• 12.3 Three proposals for “sand in the wheels” capital controls, and how they differ

• 12.4 India: current position and preconditions suggested for capital account convertibility

• 12.5 India: pattern of capital flows and their use

List of Figures

• 2.1 India: real GDP at factor cost, 1951/52–2003/04

• 2.2 India: ICOR and real gross fixed capital formation, 1955/56–2001/02

• 2.3 India: factor decomposition of real GDP growth, 1961/62–2001/02

• 2.4 India: factor shares of real GDP growth, 1961/62–2001/02

• 3.1 China: rural employment in nonagricultural sectors, 1978–2001

• 3.2 China: farmers’ wage income

• 3.3 China: purchase price index of agricultural products, 1985–2000

• 3.4 Human poverty index

• 3.5 China: illiterate and semi-illiterate persons in select provinces

• 3.6 China: per capita GDP and consumption, 1978–2001

• 3.7 China: agricultural labor and output, 1978–2001

• 3.8 China: sources of farmers’ per capita net income

• 3.9 China: status of agriculture in the national economy, 1978–2002

• 3.10 China: rural employment trends, 1978–2001

• 3.11 China: per capita disposable income and consumption

• 4.1 India: concentration of banking sector

• 4.2 India: banks’ investment in government securities

• 4.3 Cross-country comparison of government ownership of banks

• 7.1 China: average import tariff rate, 1982–2005

• 7.2 China: openness of the economy, 1990–2003

• 7.3 China: state employment, 1978–2002

• 7.4 China: inventory accumulation, 1990–2002

• 7.5 China: profitability of state-owned manufacturers, 1978–2002

• 8.1 India: real GDP, pre- and post-reform

• 9.1 Measures of financial integration

• 9.2 Channels through which financial integration can raise economic growth

• 9.3 Correlation between financial openness and real per capita GDP growth 1982–97

• 10.1 India: sectoral shares in GDP, 1950–2000

• 10.2 Cross-country comparison of per capita income and services share in GDP

• 10.3 Cross-country comparison of services output and employment share in 2001

• 10.4 India: growth of services sector, 1953/54–2000/01

• 10.5 India: fast growing services subsectors, 1952/53–1998/99

• 10.6 India: contribution of fast growers to services growth

• 10.7 India: output of fast growers, 1950/51–1999/2000

• 10.8 India: ratio of services price deflator to GDP deflator, 1990/91–1999/2000

• 10.9 India: export of services, 1980–2001

• 10.10 India: composition of export of services, 1990 and 2000

• 10.11 India: cumulative FDI and average growth in the 1990s

• 10.12 India: private sector’s share of output and average growth in the 1990s

• 10.13 India: contributing factors to services growth in the 1990s

• 11.1 Capital account restrictiveness index in emerging market economies

• 11.2 Capital account restrictiveness index in Asian economies

• 11.3 Capital volatility in Asia

• 11.4 China: balance of payments flows, 1987–2003

• 11.5 India: balance of payments flows, 1987–2003

• 11.6 Japan: balance of payments flows, 1987–2003

• 11.7 Balance of payments flows for Asia ex-Japan, 1987–2003

• 11.8 Capital openness versus peak FDI inflows for Asia

List of Boxes

• 3.1 Overview of China’s poverty line

• 4.1 Salient features of the SARFAESI Act 2002

• 4.2 Investment patterns of large financial institutions

• 10.1 Services sector in China

• 12.1 Types of capital controls

List of Abbreviations

Acknowledgments

The editors acknowledge each author’s contribution to this volume, as well as his or her participation at the November 2003 conference A Tale of Two Giants: India’s and China’s Experience with Reforms and Growth in New Delhi. The conference was co-sponsored by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and India’s National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

We would like to recognize the special efforts of several people in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department who provided support to the production of this volume and the associated conference. We are most indebted to Nong Jotikasthira for her excellent editorial work and for her untiring and efficient assistance in organizing and running the conference. We also thank Pihuan Cormier for her assistance in the early phase of the conference’s organization, and Fritz Pierre-Louis and Corinne Danklou for their work on the volume.

We would like to give special thanks to Kalpana Kochhar in the IMF’s Research Department, who played a key role in bringing the conference together, and Hiroyuki Hino of the IMF’s Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (OAP), whose support for the conference and volume was essential. From the same office, we are further grateful to Belinda Ruch for working with the conference organizers and to Kumiko Tanaka for assisting with finalizing this volume.

We would also like to recognize Suman Bery of the NCAER, whose organization made a very significant contribution as a conference partner. He and his colleague Kanhaiya Singh are also authors of one of the papers in this volume, for which we are grateful. We would further thank Michael Wattleworth (and his predecessor Jim Gordon), Sudip Mohapatra, and, especially, Alex Jaini of the IMF Resident Representative Office in India for their vital support in organizing the conference. They were assisted by Brig. Narinder Sapra, Balwant Singh, and their colleagues at the NCAER.

Finally, the editors would like to acknowledge the work done by Sean Culhane in the IMF’s External Relations Department in advising and arranging publication. The patience and advice of Amanda Hamilton at Palgrave also are very much appreciated.

Preface

India and China have each been growing rapidly for at least the last twenty years; China has on average grown considerably faster than India. Indian scholars such as Amartya Sen and T.N. Srinivasan have been studying the Chinese experience in areas such as agriculture, international trade, and human development for many years, and drawing implications for India’s policies and performance. But interest in comparing the two countries has spread to the financial press, investment banks, and investor conferences only relatively recently.

It is interesting to speculate on what lies behind this enhanced interest in the two countries. Since China’s torrid growth has been an accepted fact for some time, what may be new is a reassessment of India’s performance and potential. Such a reassessment at this particular moment is, in some ways, surprising, since the first years of the new century were not particularly stellar for Indian growth, and India’s coalition politics have, if anything, become even more messy and confused. What seems to have changed India’s image is its success as an offshore provider to the industrial countries of such skill-based services as software development, industrial research, and business services.

This success has created visibility and a political uproar in some host countries, particularly the United States. This is despite the small scale of the phenomenon relative to both the host and home countries’ economies, and the view of most analysts that this form of trade is no different from trade in goods, and should be just as welfare-enhancing and growth-promoting. Instead, as with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in the 1990s, politicians and the media have once again raised the specter of a ‘giant sucking sound’ of jobs fleeing the United States, only this time it is the American middle class that is fearful.

Lord Desai’s essay in this volume reminds us of how fickle and volatile such international perceptions can be. As recently as the 1960s, India and China were the poster children of world poverty, unable to feed themselves, and certainly no threat to the confident North which was then in the high noon of its own post-war recovery. Long-term projections made at that time would inevitably have been Malthusian in their gloom. Mechanical projections made of the prospects of Australia and Argentina (or even Brazil and Russia) at the beginning of the twentieth century would have been equally wide of the mark.

Such precedents should provoke some skepticism toward the breathless tone of recent growth projections for the two countries over the next half century. While such projections usefully describe the limits of what might be, they should not deflect attention from the fact that these are both poor, populous, substantially rural societies attempting to manage the stresses of modernization within political frameworks that are still evolving. The sheer scale of what is needed is unprecedented in human history. The international environment is also hugely different from that of the nineteenth century, in the gap between rich and poor nations, and in the absence of empty lands.

While applauding the distance both societies have come, we should not lose sight of the enormous challenges still ahead. Indeed, the focus on the absolute size of the two economies, measured at purchasing power parity, can be something of a trap: while it is helpful for certain diplomatic goals, it can also be used as a device to demand commitments. An example of this is the pressure on the two countries to make commitments in respect of the Kyoto protocol, despite their low income.

The attention therefore needs to be on the nearer term, on the policy and institutional lessons to be learned from each country’s experience so that the growth momentum can be sustained. The papers in this volume help illuminate the experience of each country. Implicitly, and sometimes explicitly, they draw comparisons between the two; only occasionally do they touch upon their fast-growing economic linkages.

Lord Desai’s essay further draws attention to the fundamentally different historical and political context that shapes economic policy in the two countries. China has historically been unified, with a successful tradition of great public works, so as to command legitimacy, but with, according to him, an abiding distrust of foreigners.

By contrast, India’s identity over the millennia has been more cultural, rather than political or geographic. The challenge facing the Indian state remains one of accommodating regional identities (and economic and sectional interests) within a coherent whole. Even as both countries progress in their efforts at economic development, their models could emerge to become as dissimilar as those of the US and France today.

Within these different political traditions as pointed out by Desai (and detailed for India in the papers by Singh and Bery and by Panagariya, and for China by Lardy), both societies made significant and similar shifts in strategy at the end of the 1970s. Looking to the future they will continue to grapple with similar problems. Here, I would mention only three.

The first is shifting labor out of agriculture into higher productivity activities. Here, China has had much greater success through its export-oriented light manufacturing, and through the institutional innovation of town and village enterprises. However, as the paper by Hu Angang and associates points out, significant challenges remain for China. The Indian picture is more confused, with wages rising but employment apparently stagnant in both agriculture and large-scale manufacturing, and disappointing even in the fast-growing services sector, as pointed out in the paper by Gordon and Gupta.

In both countries the challenge is to put in place the kind of investment climate that fosters the growth of small entrepreneurial firms. In India, the main impediment is overregulation and a dysfunctional bureaucracy, as well as the political power of entrenched monopolistic lobbies in both the public and private sectors. In China it is continued uncertainty on the political implications of a growing domestic private sector. On balance, China may have further to go than India in this area.

A second challenge is integrating with the international economy. The papers by Panagariya and Lardy describe the very different experiences of the two countries in integration on the real side, while those of Prasad and associates, Anderson, and Jadhav describe their approaches to financial integration. There is no question that China has been bolder, and more successful, on the real side, with a cleaner trade policy regime, and greater success in attracting export-oriented foreign direct investment. India is probably further ahead on the financial side, although both countries remain cautious liberalizers.

The third and perhaps most difficult challenge is to improve domestic structures for financial intermediation and risk assessment. Chen Yuan’s paper provides a realistic account of the issues and difficulties faced by China in its transition from budgetary allocation to a greater reliance on banks and securities markets, while Bhattacharya and Patel and Banerjee and associates describe similar challenges facing India.

In neither country are banks ready to take on the job that they are being asked to do; indeed, China’s reliance on foreign direct investment at a time of massive reserve accumulation in part reflects this failure of domestic intermediation. More broadly, China pays too high a price in foregone consumption for the growth it enjoys, partly because of poor intermediation. Indian banks also fail in scouting out promising investment opportunities largely because of the incentives embedded in public ownership. Reform of the financial sector is therefore a crucial challenge facing managers in both economies.

In conclusion, I would like to thank the International Monetary Fund for partnering with the National Council of Applied Economic Research for the conference on India’s and China’s experience with reform and growth from which this publication has emerged, and for according me the opportunity to contribute this preface. The conference marks an excellent use of the Fund’s knowledge of issues and resource persons in key emerging markets, and its capacity to draw them together both in Washington and in locations around the globe. I trust that this initiative will lead to many others like it.

Suman Bery

Director-General

National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi

Notes on Contributors

Jonathan Anderson Chief Economist, Asia, UBS Investment Bank.

Abhijit Banerjee Ford International Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suman Bery Director General, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

Saugata Bhattacharya Hindustan Lever Limited (Unilever India).

Chang Zhixiao Associate Professor, School of Government, Peking University.

Chen Yuan Governor, China Development Bank.

Shawn Cole Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Meghnad Desai Emeritus Professor of Economics, London School of Economics; Founder-Director, Centre for the Study of Global Governance; and Member of the House of Lords, The United Kingdom Parliament.

Esther Duflo Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research; and Research Fellow, Center for Economic and Policy Research.

James Gordon Chief of Division 3 in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department and was previously IMF Senior Resident Representative for India (at the time this paper was written).

Poonam Gupta Economist in the Macroeconomic Studies Division in the IMF’s Research Department and was previously an Economist in the Resident Representative Office for India (also when this paper was written).

Hu Angang Professor, Director of Center for China Study, Chinese Academy of Science and Tsinghua University.

Hu Linlin PhD student, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University.

Narendra Jadhav Principal Adviser and Chief Economist, Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, Reserve Bank of India.

M. Ayhan Kose Economist in the Economic Modeling Division in the IMF’s Research Department.

Nicholas R. Lardy Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.

Arvind Panagariya Bhagwati Professor of Indian Political Economy and Professor of Economics, Columbia University.

Urjit R. Patel Infrastructure Development Finance Company Limited (IDFC).

Eswar Prasad currently Chief of the Financial Studies Division in the IMF’s Research Department; previously, he was Chief of the China Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department.

Kenneth Rogoff Professor at Harvard University and was the Director of the IMF’s Research Department and Economic Counselor.

Shang-Jin Wei Head of the Trade Unit in the IMF’s Research Department.

Kanhaiya Singh Senior Economist, National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).