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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights low oil prices’ and falling oil production’s blow to the Nigerian economy. The country entered a recession in 2016, with growth contracting by 1.5 percent. Annual inflation doubled to 18.6 percent, reflecting higher electricity costs and fuel tariffs, a weaker naira, and accommodating monetary conditions. Even with significantly lower capital spending, the consolidated fiscal deficit increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016. Under unchanged policies, the outlook remains challenging and growth would pick up only slightly to 0.8 percent in 2017, mostly reflecting some recovery in oil production and a continuing strong performance in agriculture.
Mr. Emilio Sacerdoti, Mr. Gonzalo Salinas, and Abdikarim Farah
We develop a simple macroeconomic model that assesses the effects of higher foreign aid on output growth and other macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. The model is easily tractable and requires estimation of only a few basic parameters. It takes into account the impact of aid on physical and human capital accumulation, while recognizing that the impact of the latter is more protracted. Application of the model to Niger-one of the poorest countries in the world-suggests that if foreign aid as a share of GDP were to be permanently increased from the equivalent of 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to 15 percent in 2008, annual economic growth would accelerate by more than 1 percentage point, without generating significant risks for macroeconomic stability. As a result, by 2020 Niger's income per capita would be 12.5 percent higher than it would be without increased foreign aid. Moreover, the higher growth would help Niger to cut the incidence of poverty by 25 percent by 2015, although the country will still be unable to reach the Millennium Development Goal of poverty reduction (MDG 1).
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues Paper and Statistical Appendix for Niger are discussed. The Nigerien economic outlook has been improving since 1999. After a long period of decline in per capita income, growth accelerated through 2007, attaining an annual average of 4 percent, or about 1 percent in per capita terms. Economic reforms and political stability have attracted external aid and higher domestic and external private investment. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Approach indicates a moderate undervaluation of 0.7 percent to 3.7 percent.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues Paper and Statistical Appendix for Niger are discussed. The Nigerien economic outlook has been improving since 1999. After a long period of decline in per capita income, growth accelerated through 2007, attaining an annual average of 4 percent, or about 1 percent in per capita terms. Economic reforms and political stability have attracted external aid and higher domestic and external private investment. The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Approach indicates a moderate undervaluation of 0.7 percent to 3.7 percent.

International Monetary Fund
In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identify practical steps needed for Africa to achieve the MDGs. The Managing Director of the IMF is a member of the Steering Group. The Working Group supports the Steering Group and is comprised of thematic groups in education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and trade facilitation, statistics, aid predictability, and MDG operationalization at the country level. The following three notes assess the macroeconomic implications of the spending of scaled-up aid to Benin, Niger, and Togo in line with that promised by the G-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland in 2005.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses the link between public investment and economic growth in Burkina Faso. It also evaluates Burkina Faso's external competitiveness by using a comparison of REER to its equilibrium levels and a survey-based assessment of overall competitiveness. The report attempts to quantify the impact of rainfall and terms-of-trade shocks on the Burkinabe economy and draws policy measures to lessen external shocks. The report assesses that industrial mining has become a source of foreign exchange and government revenue, which requires transparent management and accountability.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

02/30: Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia, Guillermo A.Calvo, Oya Celasun, and Michael Kumhof

Ms. Catherine A Pattillo and Mr. Paul R Masson

Abstract

This chapter evaluates whether a monetary union makes economic sense and discusses the institutional requirements for a successful Monetary Union in West Africa (ECOWAS). The chapter considers how best the political momentum for a union can be channeled toward a fundamental improvement in underlying policies. The paper also reviews the economic situation of the ECOWAS members, with the objective of evaluating the ease with which they can proceed to a common currency. Regional integration resulting in greater trade among ECOWAS countries may help increase efficiency of production. Trade among developing countries, in general, is likely to have fewer efficiency benefits than trade with developed countries, however, because the possibilities of exploiting complementarities are less. The foregoing considerations suggest that the momentum in favor of monetary union should be channelled into the crucial first phase of enhanced mutual surveillance and emphasis on each country improving its macroeconomic and structural policies. Success in this endeavor would in and of itself help to increase exchange rate stability.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Over the past two decades, Nigeria has not reaped fully the benefits of its national wealth despite its efforts at structural adjustment. This paper concludes that the facts do not justify the negative image that structural adjustment has had in Nigeria. Vigorous market reforms and tight financial policies had resulted in economic growth and employment expansion, but they were abandoned too soon to have sustained benefits.

Mr. Jian-Ye Wang
Based on a simple model, the paper provides an explanation for illegal oil trade between Nigeria and its neighboring countries. The analysis focuses on the linkages between the level of smuggling and changes in the Government’s fiscal, monetary, and domestic pricing policies. It is shown that smuggling has implications for inflation and currency depreciation. A vicious circle emerges when financial policies are expansionary and policy makers attempt to hold the domestic sale price of oil constant. Macroeconomic indicators of Nigeria over the period 1986-1993 appear to support the predictions of the model. Policy implications of the analysis are also noted.