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Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, and Mr. Andrea Pescatori
Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.
Sophia Chen, Ms. Deniz O Igan, Mr. Nicola Pierri, and Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
We use high-frequency indicators to analyze the economic impact of COVID-19 in Europe and the United States during the early phase of the pandemic. We document that European countries and U.S. states that experienced larger outbreaks also suffered larger economic losses. We also find that the heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 is mostly captured by observed changes in people’s mobility, while, so far, there is no robust evidence supporting additional impact from the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The deterioration of economic conditions preceded the introduction of these policies and a gradual recovery also started before formal reopening, highlighting the importance of voluntary social distancing, communication, and trust-building measures.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Ghana’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). Growth is slowing down, financial conditions have tightened, and the exchange rate is under pressure. This has resulted in large government and external financing needs. The authorities have timely and proactively responded to contain the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Ghana and support affected households and firms. The IMF continues to monitor Ghana’s situation closely and stands ready to provide policy advice and further support as needed. The uncertain dynamics of the pandemic creates significant risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Ghana continues to be classified at high risk of debt distress. The authorities remain committed to policies consistent with strong growth, rapid poverty reduction, and macroeconomic stability over the medium term. Additional support from other development partners will be required and critical to close the remaining external financing gap and ease budget constraints.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Trinidad and Tobago is slowly recovering from a deep recession. The economy continued to contract but at a slower pace, underpinned by the strong recovery in gas production, while weak activity in construction, financial services, and trade, continued foreign exchange shortages, and slow pace of public investment dampened non-energy sector growth. Positive growth should return from 2018 as the recovery takes hold in both sectors. Good progress has been made in fiscal consolidation through spending cuts, but public debt continued to rise, approaching the government’s soft target of 65 percent of GDP. Economic prospects are expected to improve over the medium term, but remain heavily dependent on the energy sector.
International Monetary Fund

Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a decline in the real GDP of Trinidad and Tobago of 6 percent in 2016, with a further decline of 3.25 percent projected by the IMF staff in 2017. The combined impact of weak growth and low energy sector revenues increased the overall fiscal deficit to 12.1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2016, though it is expected to drop to 11.0 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2017. Meanwhile, the current account deteriorated by 14.5 percentage points to a deficit of 10.7 percent of GDP in 2016. The government has taken steps to adjust fiscal imbalances, through efforts to reform the energy tax regime, reduce fuel subsidies, and boost nonenergy revenues.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Trinidad and Tobago