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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mongolia

International Monetary Fund
Access to Fund financial resources provides a financial safety net to help countries manage adverse shocks, acting as a potential supplement to foreign reserves when there is a balance of payments need. Such support is especially important to developing countries with limited capacity to borrow in domestic or foreign markets. This paper proposes a set of measures that would expand access to Fund resources for developing countries, as one of the initiatives the Fund is undertaking as part of the wider effort of the international community to support countries in pursuing the post- 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Medium- to long-term prospects are promising given Mongolia’s large natural resources.

Berger Helge and Schindler Martin

'Restoring Hope: Reinvigorating the Millennium Development Goals' assesses how the world is doing in meeting the MDGs--international development targets that all UN member countries and many international organizations have set for 2015. Our lead article, 'Regaining Momentum,' says that while several of the MDGs are within reach, the global economic crisis has set back progress toward a number of the targets, especially those related to health. Developing countries will need the support of advanced economies in to get back on track. Economist Jagdish Bhagwati calls into question the premise of the MDGs and argues that they should be rethought. Philanthropist Melinda Gates gives us the good news that maternal health has been improving, though we are not yet on track to meet the MDG target on maternal mortality. Picture This takes a look at child mortality rates and finds a more sobering picture. In related stories, economists Arvind Panagariya and Rodney Ramcharan have different views on how important it is to fight inequality. This issue also examines the deterioration of fiscal positions in advanced economies--as a result of both the global financial crisis and the long-run health and pension costs of an aging population. 'How Grim a Fiscal Crisis?' argues that consolidation in advanced economies should focus on spending cuts, given the already high tax burdens in many countries. In 'A Hidden Fiscal Crisis,' economist Laurence J. Kotlikoff examines the serious budget issues in the United States. We also look at the expensive needs of a rapidly aging population in France, and steps China is taking to improve pensions and health care. People in Economics profiles Maria Ramos, the academic-turned-Treasury mandarin who had a central role in stabilizing the budget in South Africa. And the 'Back to Basics' feature discusses unemployment.

Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos
This paper examines the usefulness of testing the conformity of macroeconomic data with Benford's law as indicator of data quality. Most of the macroeconomic data series tested conform with Benford's law. However, questions emerge on the reliability of such tests as indicators of data quality once conformity with Benford's law is contrasted with the data quality ratings included in the data module of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (data ROSCs). Furthermore, the analysis shows that rejection of Benford's law may be unrelated to the quality of statistics, and instead may result from marked structural shifts in the data series. Hence, nonconformity with Benford's law should not be interpreted as a reliable indication of poor quality in macroeconomic data.
International Monetary Fund
Mongolia meets many of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. The major exceptions include the following: the incomplete coverage of the international investment position; the nonavailability of a primary commodity, agricultural, or other relevant production index; the producer price index; wages and earnings; nonguaranteed private external debt; as well as the nondissemination of data on central government debt and government-guaranteed debt; public and publicly guaranteed external debt and debt service schedule; gross official reserves; and reserve-related liabilities.
International Monetary Fund

Mongolia meets many of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. The major exceptions include the following: the incomplete coverage of the international investment position; the nonavailability of a primary commodity, agricultural, or other relevant production index; the producer price index; wages and earnings; nonguaranteed private external debt; as well as the nondissemination of data on central government debt and government-guaranteed debt; public and publicly guaranteed external debt and debt service schedule; gross official reserves; and reserve-related liabilities.

International Monetary Fund

Mongolia meets many of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) recommendations for coverage, periodicity, and timeliness. The major exceptions include the following: the incomplete coverage of the international investment position; the nonavailability of a primary commodity, agricultural, or other relevant production index; the producer price index; wages and earnings; nonguaranteed private external debt; as well as the nondissemination of data on central government debt and government-guaranteed debt; public and publicly guaranteed external debt and debt service schedule; gross official reserves; and reserve-related liabilities.

Mr. Allan Timmermann
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forecasts. This paper conducts a series of statistical tests to evaluate the quality of the WEO forecasts for a very large cross section of countries, with particular emphasis on the recent recession and recovery. It assesses whether forecasts were unbiased and informationally efficient, and characterizes the process whereby WEO forecasts get revised as the time to the point of the forecast draws closer. Finally, the paper assess whether forecasts can be improved by combining WEO forecasts with the Consensus forecasts. The results suggest that the performance of the WEO forecasts is similar to that of the Consensus forecasts. While WEO forecasts for many variables in many countries meet basic quality standards in some, if not all, dimensions, the paper raises a number of concerns with current forecasting performance.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Asia’s economies endured a tough year in 1998, as growth rates in many previously dynamic economies barely remained positive or became negative, according to the Asian Development Outlook 1999. Inflation rose in Southeast Asia, largely due to steep currency devaluations, and current account balances in Asia’s developing economies improved as a result of reduced imports rather than increased exports. The Asian financial crisis hurt many of Asia’s most dynamic economies and raised questions about the role of openness in promoting sustainable growth, the report continues. Nevertheless, it concludes, the Asian developing economies’ best route for ensuring economic growth and prosperity is through economic openness and liberal economic policies.