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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage?
Mr. Ralph Chami, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Anjali Garg, and Connel Fullenkamp
Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.
Keywords:
WP; country; GDP growth; Remittances; economic growth; migration; Africa; global crisis; host-country GDP; remittance multiplier; remittance-GDP ratio; host-country income; countries Armenia; Tranisiton country; remittance-determination equation; remittance flow; host-country variable; Income; Outward remittances; Balance of payments statistics; Global; Middle East; Europe; North Africa