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Mr. Ralph Chami, Mr. Adolfo Barajas, Anjali Garg, and Connel Fullenkamp
Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper focuses mainly on official bilateral and multilateral financing for countries that have rescheduled their debts to official bilateral creditors. In contrast to the approaches taken by private lenders, official creditors have continued to provide new financing on a large scale to countries with debt-servicing difficulties that implement adjustment and reform programs. Financial support bas been provided through a wide variety of instruments and channels. For the low-income rescheduling countries as a group, total financial assistance has been about as large as these countries' own export earnings in every year since 1986. The recent trends in official financing have important ramifications for developing countries. Access to external financing from official sources is likely to remain high for those countries whose adjustment and reform efforts provide assurances that resources will be used efficiently. Conversely, countries with uneven records of policy implementation (particularly as regards payments arrears) are likely to find difficulty in attracting financial support.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Three broad trends characterize recent developments in financing flows to developing countries. First, official financing flows have continued to increase at a rapid pace with net flows rising to $72 billion in 1992 from some $44 billion in 1985. Second, the form and terms of official financial assistance have become differentiated, reflecting the diverse situations and prospects facing different groups of developing countries. Particularly noteworthy is the continuing shift by both multilateral and bilateral creditors toward highly concessional financing for the low-income countries. Third, official creditors and donors have increasingly linked the availability of new financing to countries’ policy environments and performance under adjustment programs. The buildup in official support has been most pronounced for countries that established a record of policy performance; for those countries with mixed records of policy implementation, resources were less readily available. Overall, reflecting these trends, by far the most important source of financing for the vast majority of developing countries over the past decade has been official bilateral and multilateral creditors.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This section reviews external debt developments of countries that have rescheduled their official bilateral debts in the framework of the Paris Club since 1980. The middle-income countries, which are mainly indebted to commercial creditors, have made substantial progress in resolving their debt problems. An increasing number of debtors have reached agreements with their commercial bank creditors on debt-restructuring packages, and some have regained access to spontaneous financing.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This section provides information on recent debt restructurings by official bilateral creditors. The first part reports on recent debt renegotiations of official bilateral debt in the multilateral Paris Club framework; the second summarizes information on recent debt renegotiations involving other official bilateral creditors; and the third describes recent debt forgiveness initiatives implemented by a number of creditors on a bilateral basis.10

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Official bilateral creditors and donors are by far the most important source of financing for most developing countries. Recent developments are marked by three broad trends. First, aggregate gross disbursements increased rapidly by an average of about 11 percent a year between 1986 and 1991. Second, much of this increase took the form of ODA flows to low-income countries: bilateral ODA was the most important source of direct external financial assistance for most low-income countries. Third, new flows to both low- and middle-income countries were increasingly linked to the implementation of appropriate economic policies. Countries that pursued adjustment and reform programs and maintained orderly relations with creditors, including through reschedulings, continued to obtain large amounts of external financial support. Resources were less readily available to countries with mixed records of policy implementation.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Multilateral institutions, including the IMF, have made substantial contributions to the financing of developing countries over the past decade. Their continued assistance has been a critical element in supporting the efforts of debtor countries implementing programs of adjustment and structural reform. Three trends stand out, which parallel those for official bilateral creditors. In the face of sharp reductions in financing from nonofficial sources, multilateral institutions have been providing an increasing share of new disbursements, especially to the low- and lower middle-income countries with debt-servicing difficulties. As a result, multilateral debt has increased rapidly over the past decade both in absolute terms and as a share of total debt. Second, the increase in multilateral lending—particularly policy-based lending in support of adjustment programs—has been most pronounced for countries that established a strong record of sustained policy performance. Third, multilateral institutions have increasingly adapted the terms of their lending to country circumstances with a marked shift toward concessional lending to low-income countries. The aggregate debt-service obligations of these countries to multilateral have therefore increased only modestly despite the rapid rise in the share of their debt owed to multilateral.