International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
"The Fund’s total net income for FY 2018 is projected at about SDR 0.7 billion, broadly in line with the April 2017 estimate. The projections for total lending income are broadly unchanged. Most sources of lending income are lower, reflecting a lower level of credit outstanding as a result of advance repurchases and delayed disbursements. However, projected commitment fee income is higher following the early cancellation of a large FCL arrangement in November 2017.
The paper recommends that GRA net income of SDR 0.7 billion for FY 2018 (excluding projected income of the gold sales profits-funded Endowment Subaccount) be placed to the special and general reserve. After the placement of GRA FY 2018 net income to reserves, precautionary balances are projected to reach SDR 17.4 billion at the end of FY 2018. The paper further proposes to transfer currencies equivalent to the increase in the Fund’s reserves from the GRA to the Investment Account. The paper also revisits options for the allocation of net income between the special and general reserve, and proposes that net income be allocated equally between the special and general reserve.
In line with the recent Board discussion of a framework for guiding future payouts from the Endowment Subaccount, the paper presents a detailed proposal, which includes delaying payouts for three years to protect the real value of the Endowment.
The paper also recommends that the margin for the rate of charge for the period FY 2019–2020 be kept unchanged at 100 basis points. The margin will again be set under the exceptional circumstances clause, as non-lending income continues to be constrained by the low interest rate environment and lending income will be used to finance a portion of the Fund’s non-lending activities.
The projections for FY 2019 and FY 2020 point to a net income position of SDR 0.4 billion and SDR 1 billion, respectively. These projections are subject to considerable uncertainty and are sensitive to a number of assumptions."
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the rebound of the Irish economy has been exceptional. High frequency indicators suggest that growth momentum has continued in 2016. Solid job creation has reduced the unemployment rate below 8 percent. Inflation has hovered around zero as low commodity and food prices more than offset rising cost of services, particularly housing rents. Taking into account negative spillovers, real GDP growth is projected to decline to just below 5 percent in 2016 and converge to its estimated potential over the medium-term on the back of more moderate export growth and investment activity.
The medium-term income projections have been updated since the last estimate provided to the Executive Board in April 2014. The main changes to the outlook stem from a lower path for credit outstanding and expectations for a more gradual rise in interest rates.
The revised projections show lower levels of net operational income over the coming years. Lending income is lower compared with earlier estimates as a result of lower credit levels, including the advance repurchases by Ireland and Portugal. Non-lending income is also projected to be lower reflecting a further downward shift in SDR interest rates and, thus, returns on investments and interest-free resources. The updated expenditure path assumes the net administrative budget remains constant in real terms at the FY 2012 level. The long-run projections indicate a broad balance between income and expenditures, assuming that interest rates rise to 3.5 percent and with lending returning to pre-crisis levels.
The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to slow, reflecting the decline in Fund credit, and precautionary balances are now projected to remain slightly below the projected target of SDR 20 billion over the medium term compared with the earlier estimates.
FY 2015 net income is now projected at SDR 1.5 billion. Lending continues to be the main source of income, although advance repurchases have lowered projected lending income in FY 2015 by SDR 0.3 billion. Investment income remains constrained in the low interest environment but the returns were somewhat stronger than projected. A revaluation of pension obligations, required under accounting standard IAS 19 and stemming from a further fall in the discount rate, is projected to entail an adjustment to FY 2015 net income of about SDR 0.8 billion.
The paper proposes that GRA net income of SDR 1.3 billion, which excludes the retained earnings of the gold endowment, be placed to the special reserve.* After the placement to reserves, precautionary balances are projected at SDR 14.0 billion at the end of FY 2015.
The paper further proposes to retain currencies available for transfer to the Investment Account in the GRA, pending completion later this year of the Board’s review of the mandate for the Fixed-Income Subaccount.
Erlend Nier, Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome, Jacek Osinski, and Pamela Madrid
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Under the Fund’s safeguards policy introduced in 2000, assessments of central banks are carried out for countries seeking financing from the IMF. They are part of the Fund’s approach to prudent lending and complement the Fund’s other safeguards such as program design, conditionality, and access limits, to name a few. The assessments aim to provide reasonable assurance that governance and controls can protect Fund resources from misuse and guard against misreporting of monetary data used for program monitoring purposes.
In this study, economic recovery and growth of Macedonia are discussed. In the financial sector, nonperforming loans (NPLs) rose, and bank profitability declined as a result of the crisis. Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. Directors were encouraged by the overall healthy condition of the financial system. The need to accelerate structural reforms and strengthen public infrastructure to raise productivity and help reduce high unemployment is encouraged. Macedonia met the Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) qualification requirements.
This paper examines the fiscal and financial risk implications of support measures in a sovereign balance sheet framework, making the point that the ultimate fiscal cost will depend on how balance sheets are managed—both in the near-term and as governments develop unwinding strategies. It suggests some key principles for efficient and transparent management of new assets, liabilities, and associated risks, and for moving toward an orderly disengagement.
Following years as a star performer, Ireland is undergoing a painful adjustment as critical internal imbalances unwind. This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the banking system of Ireland is under considerable stress as asset quality has deteriorated and the global financial crisis has tightened access to wholesale funding. Executive Directors have welcomed the actions taken to safeguard financial stability, backed by ready access to European Central Bank financing. Directors have also supported the authorities’ efforts to restructure the financial sector, including the decision to establish the National Asset Management Agency.