Browse

You are looking at 1 - 100 of 7,017 items :

  • Type: Books and Journals x
  • IMF Working Papers x
Clear All Modify Search
Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality

New
Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality »

Volume/Issue: 2019/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Cristian Alonso , Mariya Brussevich , Era Dabla-Norris , Yuko Kinoshita , and Kalpana Kochhar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514536.001

ISBN: 9781513514536

Keywords: Unpaid Work, Female Labor Force Participation, Gender Equality.

Unpaid work, such as caring for children, the elderly, and household chores represents a significant share of economic activity but is not counted as part of GDP. Women disproportionately shoulder the burden of unp...

An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment

New
An Assessment of Global Formula Apportionment »

Volume/Issue: 2019/213

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruud A. Mooij , Li Liu , and Dinar Prihardini

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516257.001

ISBN: 9781513516257

Keywords: International corporate taxation; Multinationals; Formula apportionment.

Formula apportionment as a way to attribute taxable profits of multinationals across jurisdictions is receiving increased attention. This paper reviews existing literature and discusses experiences in selective fed...

Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?

New
Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kady Keita , Gene Leon , and Frederico Lima

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516127.001

ISBN: 9781513516127

Keywords: Fiscal governance, public financial management, sovereign bond, credit rating

We examine the link between the quality of fiscal governance and access to market-based external finance. Stronger fiscal governance is associated with improvements in several indicators of market access, including...

Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

New
Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom »

Volume/Issue: 2019/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Carlo Pizzinelli , and Jay Rappaport

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513515410.001

ISBN: 9781513515410

Keywords: Job polarization, Occupational choice, Inter-generational inequality

This paper uses a life-cycle framework to document new stylized facts about the nexus between job polarization and earnings inequality. Using quarterly labor force data for the UK over the period 2000-2018, we find...

Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis

New
Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthew Kahn , Kamiar Mohaddes , Ryan Ng , M. Pesaran , Mehdi Raissi , and Jui-Chung Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514598.001

ISBN: 9781513514598

Keywords: Climate change, economic growth, adaptation, counterfactual analysis.

We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables-defined as deviation...

Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK

New
Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK »

Volume/Issue: 2019/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samya Beidas-Strom , and Marco Lorusso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320504.001

ISBN: 9781498320504

Keywords: DSGE model, Economic diversi?cation, Shocks and commodity exporters, Bayesian estimation, Fiscal policy, In?ation targeting, Managed ?oat, Oil intensity.

We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary secto...

Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries

New
Macroeconomic Outcomes in Disaster-Prone Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Cantelmo , Giovanni Melina , and Chris Papageorgiou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513515380.001

ISBN: 9781513515380

Keywords: natural disasters, climate change, DSGE, resilient capital, international aid

Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we study the channels through which natural disaster shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes and welfare in disaster-prone countries. We solve the model using Tayl...

A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

New
A Requiem for the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level »

Volume/Issue: 2019/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roger Farmer , and Pawel Zabczyk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 October 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516196.001

ISBN: 9781513516196

Keywords: fiscal policy, monetary policy, fiscal theory of the price level, price level determination, overlapping generations model, dynamic efficiency

The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) is the claim that, in a popular class of theoretical models, the price level is sometimes determined by fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. The models where this c...

Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again

New
Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again »

Volume/Issue: 2019/211

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Etibar Jafarov , Rodolfo Maino , and Marco Pani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512488.001

ISBN: 9781513512488

Keywords: Financial crises, Economic stabilization, Interest rates on deposits, Interest rates on loans, Financial statistics, Financial Repression, Financial Liberalization, Financial Regulations, Growth., WP

Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of...

State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight

New
State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight »

Volume/Issue: 2019/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bobana Cegar , and Francisco Parodi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 September 2019

Language: Bosnian

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513515977.001

ISBN: 9781513515977

Keywords: State-Owned Enterprises, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Financial Performance, SOE Governance

Based on a new database of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) financial statements, we find that SOEs in Bosnia and Herzegovina are mostly in poor financial shape. We estimate the overall size and composition of the SOE...

Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective

New
Digital Connectivity in sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2019/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emre Alper , and Michal Miktus

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513514604.001

ISBN: 9781513514604

Keywords: Real sector, Regional economics, National accounts, Balance of payments, Gross capital formation, Digitalization, unsupervised machine learning, fractional logit model, WP, SSA

Higher digital connectivity is expected to bring opportunities to leapfrog development in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Experience within the region demonstrates that if there is an adequate digital infrastructure and...

Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda

New
Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda »

Volume/Issue: 2019/206

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedicte Baduel , Carolin Geginat , and Gaelle Pierre

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512228.001

ISBN: 9781513512228

Keywords: Labor market regulations, Labor productivity, Economic conditions, Job creation, Labor force, Bénédicte Baduel, Carolin Geginat and Gaëlle Pierre, WP, Mena, structural constraint

This paper examines the extent to which firms in selected MENA countries reported being constrained by the business environment around the time of the Arab Spring and the extent to which these constraints affected...

SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

New
SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2019/209

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mishel Ghassibe , Maximiliano Appendino , and Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509112.001

ISBN: 9781513509112

Keywords: Financial crises, Real sector, Financial inclusion, Labor productivity, Economic growth, Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, Economic Grow, WP, central Asia region, SMEs

This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions...

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

New
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability »

Volume/Issue: 2019/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Brandao-Marques , Qianying Chen , Claudio Raddatz , Jérôme Vandenbussche , and Peichu Xie

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513513775.001

ISBN: 9781513513775

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Financial crises, Economic conditions, Credit booms, Credit expansion, Corporate debt, credit allocation, credit risk, financial leverage, financial vulnerability

We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we sh...

VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence

New
VAT Notches, Voluntary Registration, and Bunching: Theory and UK Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2019/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Li Liu , Ben Lockwood , Miguel Almunia , and Eddy Tam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513513812.001

ISBN: 9781513513812

Keywords: Tax revenue, Income tax revenue, Personal income taxes, Corporate income taxes, Tax systems, Value-Added Tax (VAT), Voluntary Registration, Bunching, WP, vat

Using administrative tax records for UK businesses, we document both bunching in annual turnover below the VAT registration threshold and persistent voluntary registration by almost half of the firms below the thre...

What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output

New
What Happens if Central Banks Misdiagnose a Slowdown in Potential Output »

Volume/Issue: 2019/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bas Bakker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512532.001

ISBN: 9781513512532

Keywords: Real sector, Real interest rates, Return on investment, Unemployment, Investment, Monetary policy, potential output, Solow-Swan, WP, investment rate

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a declin...

Multiple Dimensions of Human Development Index and Public Social Spending for Sustainable Development

New
Multiple Dimensions of Human Development Index and Public Social Spending for Sustainable Development »

Volume/Issue: 2019/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Iana Paliova , Robert McNown , and Grant Nülle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511924.001

ISBN: 9781513511924

Keywords: Equity and social spending, Economic conditions, National income, Economic growth, Social indicators, Human Development, Well-being, Public Expenditure, WP, GNI

Multidimensional assessment of human development is increasingly recognized as playing an important role in assessing well-being. The focus of analysis is on the indicators measuring the three dimensions of Human D...

US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs?

US vs. Euro Area: Who Drives Cross-Border Bank Lending to EMs? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Carolina Osorio Buitron

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511900.001

ISBN: 9781513511900

Keywords: Central banking and monetary issues, Financial crises, Real sector, Reserve requirements, Market interest rates, cross-border bank lending, emerging markets, global banks, WP, sign restriction

This paper analyzes the drivers of cross-border bank lending to 49 Emerging Markets (EMs) during the period 1990Q1-2014Q4, by assessing the impact of monetary, financial and real sector shocks in both the US and th...

How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?

How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/200

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alvar Kangur , Koralai Kirabaeva , Jean-Marc Natal , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512549.001

ISBN: 9781513512549

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Potential output, Structural fiscal balance, Capacity utilization, Business Cycles, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, WP, output gap

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw ec...

How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries

How Should We Measure City Size? Theory and Evidence Within and Across Rich and Poor Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Remi Jedwab , Prakash Loungani , and Anthony Yezer

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513513782.001

ISBN: 9781513513782

Keywords: Cost of living, Migrations, Economic growth, National income, Low income countries, Urbanization, Cities, Urban Giants, Population, Standard Urban Model

It is obvious that holding city population constant, differences in cities across the world are enormous. Urban giants in poor countries are not large using measures such as land area, interior space or value of ou...

Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants

Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants »

Volume/Issue: 2019/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Sanjeev Gupta , and Saida Khamidova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509877.001

ISBN: 9781513509877

Keywords: Military expenditures, Age-related spending, Capital expenditure, Education spending, Government expenditures, Military spending, social spending, convergence., WP, military spend

This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds that military spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. In the largest group,...

More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy

More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2019/198

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Baksa , and Zsuzsa Munkacsi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509082.001

ISBN: 9781513509082

Keywords: Price indexes, Economic growth, Real interest rates, Central banking and monetary issues, Negative interest rates, aging, monetary policy transmission, optimal monetary policy, inflation targeting, WP

The evidence on the inflation impact of aging is mixed, and there is no evidence regarding the volatility of inflation. Based on advanced economies' data and a DSGE-OLG model, we find that aging leads to downward p...

One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles

One Ring to Rule Them All? New Evidence on World Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2019/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Damien Puy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512969.001

ISBN: 9781513512969

Keywords: Economic integration, Economic policy, Financial crises, Economic systems, Financial statistics, World Cycles, Business Cycles, Financial Cycles, Financial integration, Trade integration

We estimate world cycles using a new quarterly dataset of output, credit and asset prices assembled using IMF archives and covering a large set of advanced and emerging economies since 1950. World cycles, both real...

State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight

State-Owned Enterprises in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Assessing Performance and Oversight »

Volume/Issue: 2019/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bobana Cegar , and Francisco Parodi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512181.001

ISBN: 9781513512181

Keywords: Economic reforms, Social safety nets, Financial indicators, Financial statements, Fiscal policy, State-Owned Enterprises, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Financial Performance, SOE Governance, WP

Based on a new database of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) financial statements, we find that SOEs in Bosnia and Herzegovina are mostly in poor financial shape. We estimate the overall size and composition of the SOE...

Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean

Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2019/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Tianle Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511702.001

ISBN: 9781513511702

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Central bank independence, Central bank autonomy, Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy, Macroeconomic trilemma, monetary independence, exchange rate flexibility, inflation, WP

Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study ex...

A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data

A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data »

Volume/Issue: 2019/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. M. Ali Abbas , and Kenneth Rogoff

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511948.001

ISBN: 9781513511948

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial statistics, Domestic debt, Monetary statistics, External debt statistics, sovereign debt, public debt, government debt, debt statistics, historical database

The last decade or so has seen a mushrooming of new sovereign debt databases covering long time spans for several countries. This represents an important breakthrough for economists who have long sought to, but bee...

Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence

Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2019/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diego Cerdeiro , and Andras Komaromi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509839.001

ISBN: 9781513509839

Keywords: Balance of payments, Capital flows, Capital inflows, Economic theory, Financial account, financial openness, capital flow management, capital controls., WP, capital flow

We reassess the connection between capital account openness and capital flows in an empirical framework that is grounded in theory and makes use of previously unexplored variation in the data. We demonstrate how o...

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada »

Volume/Issue: 2019/190

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509396.001

ISBN: 9781513509396

Keywords: Real interest rates, Financial crises, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, inflation targeting, real-time data, forecast errors, WP

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvemen...

Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalija Novta , and Evgenia Pugacheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320450.001

ISBN: 9781498320450

Keywords: Agriculture, Capital income, Cross country analysis, Data analysis, Demographic indicators, Disposable income, Economic indicators, Economic sectors, Economies, Education

We examine the extent to which declining manufacturing employment may have contributed to increasing inequality in advanced economies. This contribution is typically small, except in the United States. We explore t...

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains »

Volume/Issue: 2019/193

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Jelle Barkema , and Diego Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513510569.001

ISBN: 9781513510569

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Producer prices, Real exchange rates, Exchange rate policy, Commodity trade, Global supply chains, value-added trade, production and final-demand elasticities., WP, final demand

The rise of global supply chains has had profound effects on individual economies and the global trading system, thereby complicating standard macroeconomic analyses. For many of the new and challenging questions b...

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

The Level REER model in the External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology »

Volume/Issue: 2019/192

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Mano , Carolina Osorio Buitron , Luca Ricci , and Mauricio Vargas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511023.007

ISBN: 9781513511023

Keywords: Real exchange rate assessments; external imbalances

This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF's methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rat...

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands - Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change »

Volume/Issue: 2019/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ryota Nakatani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511047.001

ISBN: 9781513511047

Keywords: Economic stabilization, Public financial management, Fiscal policy, Economic growth, Business cycles, Fiscal Rule, Expenditure Rule, Recurrent Expenditure, Natural Disaster, Climate Change

A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertai...

Advancing Inclusive Growth in Cambodia

Advancing Inclusive Growth in Cambodia »

Volume/Issue: 2019/187

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Niels-Jakob Hansen , and Albe Gjonbalaj

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513510552.001

ISBN: 9781513510552

Keywords: National accounts, Tax revenue, Disposable income, Consumption, Employment, Inequality, Public Investment, Cambodia., WP, property taxation

We evaluate the impact of fiscal reforms on growth and inequality in Cambodia using a calibrated general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents (Peralta-Alva et al., 2018). Over the last two decades, Cambodia'...

Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam

Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam »

Volume/Issue: 2019/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitsuru Katagiri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511764.001

ISBN: 9781513511764

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Bank credit, Credit, Bank capital, Economic growth, credit misallocation, state owned enterprises, political economy, WP, SOEs

The legacy of non-performing loans and high opportunity cost of government financing of bank recapitalization impeded the efficiency of financial intermediation and are an important policy issue in Vietnam. This pa...

Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work?

Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/188

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Djeneba Doumbia , and Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511863.001

ISBN: 9781513511863

Keywords: Economic policy, Financial crises, Expenditure efficiency, Unemployment, Education spending, Income inequality, public spending reallocation, institutions, WP, health spend

Can a government reduce income inequality by changing the composition of public spending while keeping the total level of expenditure fixed? Using newly assembled data on spending composition for 83 countries acros...

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature »

Volume/Issue: 2019/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Signe Krogstrup , and William Oman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511955.001

ISBN: 9781513511955

Keywords: Financial regulation and supervision, Financial crises, Central banking and monetary issues, Economic conditions, Financial management, climate change, fiscal policy, monetary policy, financial policy, policy framework

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of this century. Mitigation requires a large-scale transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper provides an overview of the rapidly growing literature on the role...

Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles

Optimal Macroprudential Policy and Asset Price Bubbles »

Volume/Issue: 2019/184

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , Lucyna Gornicka , and Alexandros Vardoulakis

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511078.001

ISBN: 9781513511078

Keywords: Economic conditions, Financial crises, Demand, Economic stabilization, Price indexes, Collateral constraints, rational bubbles, macroprudential regulation, optimal policy, WP

An asset bubble relaxes collateral constraints and increases borrowing by credit-constrained agents. At the same time, as the bubble deflates when constraints start binding, it amplifies downturns. We show analytic...

The Negative Mean Output Gap

The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511740.001

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data

Debt Service and Default: Calibrating Macroprudential Policy Using Micro Data »

Volume/Issue: 2019/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Erlend Nier , Radu Popa , Maral Shamloo , and Liviu Voinea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509099.001

ISBN: 9781513509099

Keywords: Interest rates on loans, Interest rates, Financial crises, Financial institutions, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Macroprudential policy, Household credit, Romania, WP, consumer loan

We provide empirical evidence to support the calibration of a limit on household indebtedness levels, in the form of a cap on the debt-service-to-income (DSTI) ratio, in order to reduce the probability of borrower...

International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement

International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement »

Volume/Issue: 2019/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sakai Ando

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509822.001

ISBN: 9781513509822

Keywords: Financial statistics, Economic integration, Investment analysis, Balance of payments, Business cycles, stock return comovement, international investment position, risk-on, risk-off, WP

This paper studies whether bilateral international financial connection data help predict bilateral stock return comovement. It is shown that, when the United States is chosen as the benchmark, a larger U.S. portfo...

Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity

Crop Selection and International Differences in Aggregate Agricultural Productivity »

Volume/Issue: 2019/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Alvarez , and Claudia Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498326636.001

ISBN: 9781498326636

Keywords: Agricultural production, Production, Gross domestic product, Development, Employment, Productivity, Agriculture, Geography, potential yield, crop selection

A large share of cross-country differences in productivity is explained by differences in agricultural productivity. Using a combination of sub-national agricultural statistics and geospatial datasets on crop-speci...

Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities

Finding the Bad Apples in the Barrel: Using the Market Value of Equity to Signal Banking Sector Vulnerabilities »

Volume/Issue: 2019/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Will Kerry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511030.001

ISBN: 9781513511030

Keywords: Bank credit, Financial crises, Credit default swap contract, Central banks, Interest rates on loans, Banks, capital, leverage, market value of capital., capital ratio

This paper measures the performance of different metrics in assessing banking system vulnerabilities. It finds that metrics based on equity market valuations of bank capital are better than regulatory capital ratio...

Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women

Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women »

Volume/Issue: 2019/174

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rasmané Ouedraogo , and Idrissa Ouedraogo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513510545.001

ISBN: 9781513510545

Keywords: Labor force participation, Demographic indicators, Nonmetropolitan areas, Labor force, Poverty, gender equality, electoral violence, Africa, female-to-male, structural violence

We examine the impact of gender equality on electoral violence in Africa using micro-level data from the sixth round of Afrobarometer surveys. The sample covers 30 countries. We find that gender equality is associa...

Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy

Liquidity Ratios as Monetary Policy Tools: Some Historical Lessons for Macroprudential Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2019/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Miklos Vari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320474.001

ISBN: 9781498320474

Keywords: Central banks, Central banking and monetary issues, Bank credit, Bank rates, Financial management, Specialness, repo market, asset purchases, money market, reserve requirement

This paper explores what history can tell us about the interactions between macroprudential and monetary policy. Based on numerous historical documents, we show that liquidity ratios similar to the Liquidity Covera...

State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality

State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality »

Volume/Issue: 2019/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509860.001

ISBN: 9781513509860

Keywords: Tax revenue, Tax exemptions, Tax administration, Tax reforms, Tax rates, Tax capacity, institutions, causality, GDP, state institution

Would better state institutions increase tax collection, or would higher tax collection help improve state institutions? In the absence of conclusive guidance from theory, this paper searches for an empirical answe...

The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality

The Economic Impact of Healthcare Quality »

Volume/Issue: 2019/173

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne-Line Koch Helsø , Nicola Pierri , and Adelina Yanyue Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498324595.001

ISBN: 9781498324595

Keywords: Labor market characteristics, Labor markets, Labor force participation, Labor costs, Labor supply, Hospital quality, healthcare quality, health shocks, hospital productivity, AEL

We study the costs of hospitalizations on patients' earnings and labor supply, using the universe of hospital admissions in Denmark and full-population tax data. We evaluate the quality of treatment based on its ab...

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages

The Impact of Remittances on Economic Activity: The Importance of Sectoral Linkages »

Volume/Issue: 2019/175

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hector Perez-Saiz , Jemma Dridi , Tunc Gursoy , and Mounir Bari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498324489.001

ISBN: 9781498324489

Keywords: Economic conditions, National accounts aggregates, Real sector, Official development assistance, Foreign direct investment, Remittances, Sub-Saharan Africa, networks, centrality, remittance inflow

We propose a simple macroeconomic model with input-output sectoral linkages based on Acemoglu et al. (2016) to quantify how changes in aggregate demand due to additional income from household's remittances propagat...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation »

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509853.001

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond

Bank Lobbying: Regulatory Capture and Beyond »

Volume/Issue: 2019/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deniz Igan , and Thomas Lambert

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484347546.001

ISBN: 9781484347546

Keywords: Financial regulation and supervision, Financial crises, Gross domestic product, Financial institutions, Financial services, banks, regulatory capture, lobbying, political economy, regulation

In this paper, we discuss whether and how bank lobbying can lead to regulatory capture and have real consequences through an overview of the motivations behind bank lobbying and of recent empirical evidence on the...

Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts

Doing More for Less? New Evidence on Lobbying and Government Contracts »

Volume/Issue: 2019/172

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Senay Agca , Deniz Igan , Fuhong Li , and Prachi Mishra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498315241.001

ISBN: 9781498315241

Keywords: National income accounts, National income accounting, Government expenditures, Industry, Trade policy, Political connections, lobbying, rent seeking, government spending, procurement

Why do firms lobby? This paper exploits the unanticipated sequestration of federal budget accounts in March 2013 that reduced the availability of government funds disbursed through procurement contracts to shed lig...

Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy

Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2019/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Seyed Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508955.001

ISBN: 9781513508955

Keywords: Balance sheets, Sovereign wealth funds, Financial markets, Risk-weighted asset, Social security funds, Public sector balance sheet, Fiscal policy, Net financial worth, Net worth, balance sheet

This paper introduces concepts of public sector balance sheet (PSBS) strength, taking into account different aspects of what governments own in addition to what they owe. It develops measures of PSBS strength and i...

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality

Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality »

Volume/Issue: 2019/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonathan Benchimol , and Lahcen Bounader

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498324588.001

ISBN: 9781498324588

Keywords: Bank rates, Financial crises, Monetary policy, Central bank policy, Central banks, myopia, commitment, discretion, optimal simple rules., output gap

The form of bounded rationality characterizing the representative agent is key in the choice of the optimal monetary policy regime. While inflation targeting prevails for myopia that distorts agents' inflation expe...

Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence

Financial Development, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Debt Dollarization: A Firm-Level Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2019/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Minsuk Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508979.001

ISBN: 9781513508979

Keywords: Exchange rate policy, Exchange rate shocks, Exchange markets, Financial crises, Exchange rate regimes, Dollarization, Financial Development, Original Sin, Exchange Rate Volatility, dollar debt

This paper examines how financial development influences the debt dollarization of nonfinancial firms in a sample of emerging market economies (EMEs). The macroeconomic channels are identified from an optimal portf...

Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea

Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea »

Volume/Issue: 2019/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Niels-Jakob Hansen , Joannes Mongardini , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508344.001

ISBN: 9781513508344

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Labor markets, Labor force, Capacity utilization, Supply and demand, Potential output, labor markets., output gap, broad measure, slack

Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployme...

What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia

What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2019/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gee Hee Hong , Anne Oeking , Kenneth Kang , and Changyong Rhee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509006.001

ISBN: 9781513509006

Keywords: Financial crises, Central banks, Financial institutions, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Exchange risk, Covered interest parity, limits to arbitrage, U.S.dollar funding, FX swaps., IIP

Asian countries have high demand for U.S. dollars and are sensitive to U.S. dollar funding costs. An important, but often overlooked, component of these costs is the basis spread in the cross-currency swap market t...

Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing

Statistical Coverage of Trade Finance - Fintechs and Supply Chain Financing »

Volume/Issue: 2019/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Cornelia Lotte van Wersch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317030.001

ISBN: 9781498317030

Keywords: External sector, Real sector, Trade finance, Financial crises, Balance of payments, Global Value Chains, Fintechs, Trade Financing, Supply Chain Financing, Statistics

Trade finance is the backbone of international trade for entities ranging from a small businesses to multi-national corporations. An estimated 80 percent of world trade relies on this form of finance (WTO, 2017). D...

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector

The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis: Public Interventions in the Financial Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2019/164

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deniz Igan , Hala Moussawi , Alexander Tieman , Aleksandra Zdzienicka , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508337.001

ISBN: 9781513508337

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial institutions, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Financial systems, Central banks, Financial crisis, Government interventions, Bank resolution, country-level, GFC

We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007-17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate t...

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis

Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/163

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francien Berry , Brian Graf , Michael Stanger , and Mari Ylä-Jarkko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508313.001

ISBN: 9781513508313

Keywords: Import price indexes, Purchasing power parity, Export price indexes, Price indexes, Real sector, Price Index, CPI, PPI, Scanner data, Big data

The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates....

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings »

Volume/Issue: 2019/162

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov , and Luca Ricci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498325059.001

ISBN: 9781498325059

Keywords: Sovereign credit ratings, Credit ratings, Development, Financial markets, Financial management, Public debt, Credit rating agencies, Advanced economies, Emerging markets, Non-linearities

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between public debt and sovereign credit ratings, using a wide sample of over one hundred advanced, emerging, and developing economies. It finds that: i) higher pu...

Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle

Do Old Habits Die Hard? Central Banks and the Bretton Woods Gold Puzzle »

Volume/Issue: 2019/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eric Monnet , and Damien Puy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498326773.001

ISBN: 9781498326773

Keywords: Monetary statistics, International monetary system, Economic stabilization, Exchange rate policy, Central banks, Bretton Woods, gold, foreign reserves, gold standard, culture

Why did monetary authorities hold large gold reserves under Bretton Woods (1944-1971) when only the US had to? We argue that gold holdings were driven by institutional memory and persistent habits of central bank...

Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2019/160

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Arizala , Matthieu Bellon , and Margaux MacDonald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320498.001

ISBN: 9781498320498

Keywords: Globalization, Bilateral trade, Patterns of trade, International trade agreements, External shocks, Growth, Regional Integration, Spillovers, Africa., intra-regional

This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those mos...

A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability

A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability »

Volume/Issue: 2019/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Marc Fournier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498325066.001

ISBN: 9781498325066

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Economic stabilization, Unemployment, Financial crises, Lender of last resort, Fiscal stance, cycle stabilization, government deficit, government debt., debt limit

A fiscal reaction function to debt and the cycle is built on a buffer-stock model for the government. This model inspired by the buffer-stock model of the consumer (Deaton 1991; Carroll 1997) includes a debt limit...

Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization

Internal Trade in Canada: Case for Liberalization »

Volume/Issue: 2019/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Alvarez , Ivo Krznar , and Trevor Tombe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498326650.001

ISBN: 9781498326650

Keywords: International trade agreements, Total factor productivity, Bilateral trade, Comparative advantage, Patterns of trade, Internal trade, gains from trade, input-output linkages, Canada, trade cost

This paper assesses the costs of internal trade barriers and proposes policies to improve internal trade. Estimates suggest that complete liberalization of internal trade in goods can increase GDP per capita by abo...

Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection

Assessing IMF Lending: a Model of Sample Selection »

Volume/Issue: 2019/157

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Mäder , Jean-Guillaume Poulain , and Julien Reynaud

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498324618.001

ISBN: 9781498324618

Keywords: Supply and demand, Financial crises, Exchange rate depreciation, Foreign exchange reserves, Economic integration, IMF lending, Sample selection, VIX, Poulain, potential need

Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are present...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319294.001

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America

Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2019/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adriana Kugler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393840.001

ISBN: 9781484393840

Keywords: Labor market institutions, Labor market regulations, Labor market reforms, Labor productivity, Labor taxes, labor demographics, inequality, Latin America., EPL, payroll tax

This paper documents recent labor market performance in the Latin American region. The paper shows that unemployment, informality, and inequality have been falling over the past two decades, though still remain hig...

New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness

New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness »

Volume/Issue: 2019/154

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuk Ghazanchyan , Li Zhao , Steve Brito , and Vivian Parlak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320818.001

ISBN: 9781498320818

Keywords: Financial crises, Real effective exchange rates, Economic growth, Unit labor cost, Current account deficits, price elasticity, income elasticity, Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), gravity model, tourism arrivals and expenditure

Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for th...

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines »

Volume/Issue: 2019/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Si Guo , Philippe Karam , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319324.001

ISBN: 9781498319324

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Development, Price controls, Monetary policy, inflation, the Philippines, output gap, BSP, inflation rate

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence...

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hidetaka Nishizawa , Scott Roger , and Huan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320801.001

ISBN: 9781498320801

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Accounting, Accounting standards, Agriculture, Aid flows, Balance of payments, Bank deposits, Bank financing, Banks, Bonds

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spend...

International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending

International Fiscal-financial Spillovers: The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-border Bank Lending »

Volume/Issue: 2019/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , Davide Furceri , and Chansik Yoon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389690.001

ISBN: 9781484389690

Keywords: Financial crises, Economic conditions, Nominal effective exchange rate, Fiscal sector, Real effective exchange rates, Fiscal-financial spillovers, Cross-border banking flows, Local projections, Nonlinear effects, Trilemma.

This paper sheds new light on the degree of international fiscal-financial spillovers by investigating the effect of domestic fiscal policies on cross-border bank lending. By estimating the dynamic response of U.S....

Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications

Public Investment in Bolivia: Prospects and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2019/151

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yehenew Endegnanew , and Dawit Tessema

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319317.001

ISBN: 9781498319317

Keywords: Economic growth, Public investments, Absorptive capacity, Private investments, Consumption, Public Investment, Fiscal Consolidation, public debt level, debt level, investment level

Bolivia's 'Patriotic Agenda 2025' sets targets for social and economic development propelled by state-led industrialization under a five-year development plan (2016-2020). Large-scale public investment has aimed to...

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model

Climate Disaster Risks - Empirics and a Multi-Phase Dynamic Model »

Volume/Issue: 2019/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stefan Mittnik , Willi Semmler , and Alexander Haider

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320849.001

ISBN: 9781498320849

Keywords: Real sector, Economic growth, Interest costs, Interest rates on loans, Low income countries, climate economics, disaster risk, macro feedbacks, multi-phase macro model, monetary and financial policies

Recent research in financial economics has shown that rare large disasters have the potential to disrupt financial sectors via the destruction of capital stocks and jumps in risk premia. These disruptions often ent...

Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa

Drivers of Cross-Border Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2019/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Mathieu , Marco Pani , Shiyuan Chen , and Rodolfo Maino

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321549.001

ISBN: 9781498321549

Keywords: Economic integration, Financial statistics, Central banks, Price indexes, Banking systems, Cross-border banking flows, Bank leverage, Global banks, bank subsidiary, cross-border

Using data collected from pan-African banks' (PABs), balance sheets and other sources (Orbis, Fitch), this study identifies some key patterns of cross-border investment in bank subsidiaries by key banking groups in...

Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries

Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ronald James , Jemma Lafeuillee , Mike Xin Li , Gonzalo Salinas , and Yevgeniya Savchenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318709.001

ISBN: 9781498318709

Keywords: Human capital, Labor supply, Social security, Public sector wages, Labor force, Caribbean, labor market factors, unemployment, ECCU, GRD

In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of str...

Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico

Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico »

Volume/Issue: 2019/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Frederic Lambert , and Hyunmin Park

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320863.001

ISBN: 9781498320863

Keywords: Social security, Income distribution, Demographic indicators, North American Free Trade Agreement, Development policy, inequality, poverty, social policies, Mexico, government transfer

We analyze microdata from Mexico's survey on household income and expenditures (ENIGH) to study the evolution of income inequality in Mexico over 2004-16, identify its sources, and investigate how it was affected...

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect »

Volume/Issue: 2019/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321761.001

ISBN: 9781498321761

Keywords: Nominal effective exchange rate, Inflation targeting, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, spillovers, co-movement, weather, core inflation

Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks-a result which the pa...

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru »

Volume/Issue: 2019/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Freudenberg , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318525.001

ISBN: 9781498318525

Keywords: Pension funds, Social safety nets, Wage indexation, Labor market reforms, Minimum wages, Pension System, Contribution Density, Replacement Rates, Peru, replacement rate

Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the population. Using ad...

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model

Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model »

Volume/Issue: 2019/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , Diego Cerdeiro , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318440.001

ISBN: 9781498318440

Keywords: Export restraints, Balance of trade, Patterns of trade, Trade models, International trade agreements, general equilibrium, trade, tariffs, trade tensions, global value chains.

This paper studies the potential long-term effects of three illustrative scenarios using a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) trade model calibrated to 165 countries. The first scenario estimates eff...

Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital

Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital »

Volume/Issue: 2019/140

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yener Altunbas , David Marques?Ibanez , Michiel van Leuvensteijn , and Tianshu Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318501.001

ISBN: 9781498318501

Keywords: Bank credit, Interest rates on loans, Bank liquidity, Central banks, Bank accounting, securitization, pre-crisis, industry level, individual bank, market power

We examine how bank competition in the run-up to the 2007-2009 crisis affects banks' systemic risk during the crisis. We then investigate whether this effect is influenced by two key bank characteristics: securitiz...

Public Wealth in the United States

Public Wealth in the United States »

Volume/Issue: 2019/139

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabien Gonguet , and Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312219.001

ISBN: 9781498312219

Keywords: Balance sheets, Financial statements, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Social security, Fiscal sustainability, Government finance statistics, GSEs, percent of GDP, intertemporal

We analyze the US public sector balance sheet and project it forward under the assumption that current policies remain in place. We first document the history of the balance sheet and its components since World War...

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share »

Volume/Issue: 2019/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498316811.001

ISBN: 9781498316811

Keywords: National accounts, Total factor productivity, Capital stocks, Financial crises, Labor markets, Labor Share, Offshoring, Technological Changes, and Relative Cost of Capital, investment good

Existing studies on the downward trend in the labor share of income mostly focus on changes within individual countries. I document, however, that half of the global decline in the labor share of income can be trac...

The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects

The Rewards of Fiscal Consolidation: Sovereign Spreads and Confidence Effects »

Volume/Issue: 2019/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , Jaime Guajardo , and Juan Yepez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317054.001

ISBN: 9781498317054

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Indicators of economic activity, Tax increases, Tax reforms, Sovereign spreads, emerging markets, austerity., austerity, basis point

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal consolidation announcements on sovereign spreads in a panel of 21 emerging market economies during 2000-18. We construct a novel dataset using a global news database to...

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share »

Volume/Issue: 2019/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498316811.001

ISBN: 9781498316811

Keywords: National accounts, Total factor productivity, Capital stocks, Financial crises, Labor markets, Labor Share, Offshoring, Technological Changes, and Relative Cost of Capital, investment good

Existing studies on the downward trend in the labor share of income mostly focus on changes within individual countries. I document, however, that half of the global decline in the labor share of income can be trac...

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share

Technological Changes, Offshoring, and the Labor Share »

Volume/Issue: 2019/142

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498316811.001

ISBN: 9781498316811

Keywords: National accounts, Total factor productivity, Capital stocks, Financial crises, Labor markets, Labor Share, Offshoring, Technological Changes, and Relative Cost of Capital, investment good

Existing studies on the downward trend in the labor share of income mostly focus on changes within individual countries. I document, however, that half of the global decline in the labor share of income can be trac...

Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations

Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations »

Volume/Issue: 2019/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Niklas Westelius

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317344.001

ISBN: 9781498317344

Keywords: Interest rate differential, Interest rate increases, International financial markets, Interest rates, Exchange rate policy, Carry trade, safe haven effects, exchange rate appreciations, Japan, VIX

The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure...

E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia

E-commerce as a Potential New Engine for Growth in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2019/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317467.001

ISBN: 9781498317467

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Credit, Human capital, Development, Consumption, e-commerce, productivity, exports, factor productivity, TFP

The use of e-commerce around the world has accelerated in recent years, with Asia, led by China, spearheading the rise. Using cross-country enterprise survey data, this paper shows that firms engaged in e-commerce...

Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?

Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jochen Andritzky , and Julian Schumacher

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317375.001

ISBN: 9781498317375

Keywords: International bond markets, Collective action clauses, International capital markets, Sovereign debt restructuring, Bond issues, Debt crisis, public debt, sovereign risk, sovereign default, bond restructuring

Sovereign debt restructurings are perceived as inflicting large losses to bondholders. However, many bonds feature high coupons and often exhibit strong post-crisis recoveries. To account for these aspects, we anal...

Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan

Productivity Drag from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Japan »

Volume/Issue: 2019/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariana Colacelli , and Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317474.001

ISBN: 9781498317474

Keywords: Labor productivity, Capital productivity, Human capital, Capital formation, Intangible capital, Productivity, Firm Dynamics, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, Intangible Investment, productivity growth

Productivity growth in Japan, as in most advanced economies, has moderated. This paper finds supportive evidence for the important role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in explaining Japan's modest prod...

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Adjustment: The Case of Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2019/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Plamen Iossifov , and Xuan Fei

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312738.001

ISBN: 9781498312738

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Balance of trade, Trade deficits, Current account, Patterns of trade, Real trade balance adjustment, REER, long-run, trade balance, elasticity

There is an ongoing debate in the literature on whether global trade flows have become disconnected from the large real effective exchange rate movements in the wake of the global financial crisis. The question has...

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound

The Euro-Area Government Spending Multiplier at the Effective Lower Bound »

Volume/Issue: 2019/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adalgiso Amendola , Mario di Serio , Matteo Fragetta , and Giovanni Melina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314947.001

ISBN: 9781498314947

Keywords: Government expenditures, Negative interest rates, Real interest rates, Interest rate policy, Business cycles, Fiscal multiplier, Zero lower bound, Panel VAR, Factor models, Euro Area.

We build a factor-augmented interacted panel vector-autoregressive model of the Euro Area (EA) and estimate it with Bayesian methods to compute government spending multipliers. The multipliers are contingent on the...

The Measurement of External Accounts

The Measurement of External Accounts »

Volume/Issue: 2019/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gustavo Adler , Daniel Garcia-Macia , and Signe Krogstrup

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317450.001

ISBN: 9781498317450

Keywords: Foreign investment income, Balance of payments statistics, Financial statistics, Economic integration, Foreign investment, Current Account, Measurement, External Imbalances, Global Imbalances., retained earnings

Growing international integration in trade and finance can challenge the measurement of external accounts. This paper presents a unified conceptual framework for identifying sources of mismeasurement of foreign inv...

The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat

The Price of Capital Goods: A Driver of Investment Under Threat »

Volume/Issue: 2019/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Weicheng Lian , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , Yannick Timmer , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317429.001

ISBN: 9781498317429

Keywords: Real interest rates, Producer prices, Economic integration, Capital goods, Low-income developing countries, Relative price of investment goods, trade integration, trade barriers, capital deepening, global value chain

Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment fell dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Using cross-country and sectoral data, we show...

Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2019/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Cheikh Gueye , Asithandile Mbelu , and Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498317795.001

ISBN: 9781498317795

Keywords: Bank credit, Commodity price shocks, Oil prices, Oil revenues, Oil exporting countries, Oil price, non-performing loans, credit growth, deposit growth, bank ownership

This paper studies the impact of declining oil prices on banks in sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries. Results indicate that banks respond differently to an oil shock depending on their ownership: (i) domes...

Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2019/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss , Malhar Nabar , and Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314435.001

ISBN: 9781498314435

Keywords: Economic integration, Flexible exchange rates, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rate stability, Real exchange rates, Economic Growth, Emerging Markets, Developing Economies, External Conditions, external condition

External conditions have been found to influence the tendency of emerging market and developing economies to experience episodes of growth accelerations and reversals. In this paper we study the role of domestic po...

How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States?

How Does Taxation Affect Hours Worked in EU New Member States? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/130

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Agustin Velasquez , and Svetlana Vtyurina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498315708.001

ISBN: 9781498315708

Keywords: Tax revenue, Tax exemptions, Tax incentives, Tax rates, Fiscal policy, hours worked, labor supply, labor tax, consumption tax, EU new member states

Hours worked vary widely across countries and over time. In this paper, we investigate the role played by taxation in explaining these differences for EU New Member States. By extending a standard growth model with...

From Basel I to Basel III: Sequencing Implementation in Developing Economies

From Basel I to Basel III: Sequencing Implementation in Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2019/127

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Caio Ferreira , Nigel Jenkinson , and Christopher Wilson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498315227.001

ISBN: 9781498315227

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial markets, Financial services, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Financial systems, Banks, Banking crisis, Basel Accords, Capital Requirements, Liquidity Requirements

Developing economies can strengthen their financial systems by implementing the main elements of global regulatory reform. But to build an effective prudential framework, they may need to adapt international standa...

Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid

Optimal Fiscal Spending and Reserve Accumulation Policies under Volatile Aid »

Volume/Issue: 2019/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ioana Moldovan , Shu-Chun Susan Yang , and Luis-Felipe Zanna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312110.001

ISBN: 9781498312110

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, Private consumption, Real interest rates, Government consumption, Public goods, aid, fiscal policy, foreign exchange intervention, optimal policy, low-income countries.

This paper assesses the optimal setting of fiscal spending and foreign exchange rate intervention policies in response to volatile foreign aid, in a small open economy model that incorporates typical features of lo...

Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages

Fiscal Consolidation and Public Wages »

Volume/Issue: 2019/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juin-Jen Chang , Hsieh-Yu Lin , Nora Traum , and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498316835.001

ISBN: 9781498316835

Keywords: Public sector wages, Real interest rates, Income tax revenue, Wage policy, Consumption taxes, public wage, fiscal consolidation, government spending, fiscal policy, New Keynesian model

A New Keynesian model with government production, public compensation, and unemployment is fit to U.S. data to study the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of public wage reductions. We find that accounting for the t...

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model »

Volume/Issue: 2019/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lisandro Abrego , Maria Alejandra Amado , Tunc Gursoy , Garth Nicholls , and Hector Perez-Saiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314398.001

ISBN: 9781498314398

Keywords: Economic integration, Open economies, International trade agreements, Trade finance, Comparative advantage, AfCFTA, welfare, general equilibrium, trade barriers, welfare gain

In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and s...

Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo

Macro-Fiscal Gains from Anti-Corruption Reforms in the Republic of Congo »

Volume/Issue: 2019/121

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Melina , Hoda Selim , and Concepcion Verdugo-Yepes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312042.001

ISBN: 9781498312042

Keywords: Oil revenues, Oil production, Economic growth, Public investment programs, Public investments, Congo, Africa, corruption, PFM, oil curse

This paper argues that oil revenue management and public investment in Congo are vulnerable to corruption as a result of limited transparency and accountability. Corruption has potentially contributed to poor macro...