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Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing

Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing »

Source: Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing

Volume/Issue: 2021/015

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Hills , Huy Nguyen , and Randa Sab

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567778

Keywords: Concessional external borrowing, External debt, Factor models, Real effective exchange rates, Current account balance, Concessional financing, dynamic factor model, probit regression., WP, financing arrangement

This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We...

External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?

External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position? »

Source: External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?

Volume/Issue: 2021/020

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Cubeddu , Swarnali Hannan , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513568102

Keywords: External debt, Sudden stops, Foreign currency debt, Financial crises, International reserves, international investment positions, current account, foreign reserves, sudden stops with large output loss, external crises.

Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries' external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and em...

Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited

Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited »

Source: Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited

Volume/Issue: 2021/017

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Hooley , Lam Nguyen , Mika Saito , and Shirin Nikaein Towfighian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567747

Keywords: Bank credit, Legal support in revenue administration, Government debt management, Government debt planning, Loans, Inflation, monetary policy, central bank, fiscal policy, fiscal dominance

This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroe...

Flattening the Insolvency Curve: Promoting Corporate Restructuring in Asia and the Pacific in the Post-C19 Recovery

Flattening the Insolvency Curve: Promoting Corporate Restructuring in Asia and the Pacific in the Post-C19 Recovery »

Source: Flattening the Insolvency Curve: Promoting Corporate Restructuring in Asia and the Pacific in the Post-C19 Recovery

Volume/Issue: 2021/016

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Bauer , R. Craig , José Garrido , Kenneth Kang , Kenichiro Kashiwase , Sung Jin Kim , Yan Liu , and Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513568096

Keywords: COVID-19, fiscal response, financial sector policy, corporate restructuring, insolvency frameworks

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a sharp contraction of economic activity across Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers adopted a 'whatever it takes' approach in their initial response, relying mainly on li...

Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing

Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF's Concessional Financing »

Volume/Issue: 2021/015

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Hills , Huy Nguyen , and Randa Sab

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567778.001

ISBN: 9781513567778

Keywords: Concessional external borrowing, External debt, Factor models, Real effective exchange rates, Current account balance, Concessional financing, dynamic factor model, probit regression., WP, financing arrangement

This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We...

External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?

External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position? »

Volume/Issue: 2021/020

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Cubeddu , Swarnali Hannan , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513568102.001

ISBN: 9781513568102

Keywords: External debt, Sudden stops, Foreign currency debt, Financial crises, International reserves, international investment positions, current account, foreign reserves, sudden stops with large output loss, external crises.

Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries' external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and em...

Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited

Fiscal Dominance in Sub-Saharan Africa Revisited »

Volume/Issue: 2021/017

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Hooley , Lam Nguyen , Mika Saito , and Shirin Nikaein Towfighian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567747.001

ISBN: 9781513567747

Keywords: Bank credit, Legal support in revenue administration, Government debt management, Government debt planning, Loans, Inflation, monetary policy, central bank, fiscal policy, fiscal dominance

This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroe...

Flattening the Insolvency Curve: Promoting Corporate Restructuring in Asia and the Pacific in the Post-C19 Recovery

Flattening the Insolvency Curve: Promoting Corporate Restructuring in Asia and the Pacific in the Post-C19 Recovery »

Volume/Issue: 2021/016

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Bauer , R. Craig , José Garrido , Kenneth Kang , Kenichiro Kashiwase , Sung Jin Kim , Yan Liu , and Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513568096.001

ISBN: 9781513568096

Keywords: COVID-19, fiscal response, financial sector policy, corporate restructuring, insolvency frameworks

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a sharp contraction of economic activity across Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers adopted a 'whatever it takes' approach in their initial response, relying mainly on li...

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants »

Volume/Issue: 2021/018

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Michael Ganslmeier , Jonathan Ostry , and Naihan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567013.001

ISBN: 9781513567013

Keywords: Population and demographics, Fiscal stimulus, COVID-19 , Health, Labor market regulations, Recession, Resilience, WALS, BMA, Model-Averaging.

While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging t...

Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa?

Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa? »

Volume/Issue: 2021/019

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vigninou Gammadigbe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567716.001

ISBN: 9781513567716

Keywords: Regional integration, Trade integration, Personal income, Economic integration, Plurilateral trade, economic growth, income convergence, Africa, WP, trade intensity

The main objective of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is to stimulate economic growth in participating countries through increased trade, economies of scale, knowledge and technology transfer. Using a panel data o...

Social Repercussions of Pandemics

Social Repercussions of Pandemics »

Volume/Issue: 2021/021

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Barrett , and Sophia Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567723.001

ISBN: 9781513567723

Keywords: Natural disasters, COVID-19 , Health, Communicable diseases, Personal income, crisis, disasters, epidemic, social unrest, WP

Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social...

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants

Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants »

Source: Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants

Volume/Issue: 2021/018

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Michael Ganslmeier , Jonathan Ostry , and Naihan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567013

Keywords: Population and demographics, Fiscal stimulus, COVID-19 , Health, Labor market regulations, Recession, Resilience, WALS, BMA, Model-Averaging.

While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging t...

Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa?

Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa? »

Source: Is Regional Trade Integration a Growth and Convergence Engine in Africa?

Volume/Issue: 2021/019

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vigninou Gammadigbe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567716

Keywords: Regional integration, Trade integration, Personal income, Economic integration, Plurilateral trade, economic growth, income convergence, Africa, WP, trade intensity

The main objective of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is to stimulate economic growth in participating countries through increased trade, economies of scale, knowledge and technology transfer. Using a panel data o...

Social Repercussions of Pandemics1

Social Repercussions of Pandemics1 »

Source: Social Repercussions of Pandemics

Volume/Issue: 2021/021

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Barrett , and Sophia Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567723

Keywords: Natural disasters, COVID-19 , Health, Communicable diseases, Personal income, crisis, disasters, epidemic, social unrest, WP

Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social...

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain »

Volume/Issue: 2021/013

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alan Feng , and Haishi Li

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564586.001

ISBN: 9781513564586

Keywords: Climate change, Stock markets, Foreign currency exposure, Financial sector, Natural disasters, climate risk, financial spillover, supply chain, financial stability, WP

Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our...

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2021/014

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chiara Fratto , Brendan Harnoys Vannier , Borislava Mircheva , David de Padua , and Helene Poirson Ward

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567211.001

ISBN: 9781513567211

Keywords: Sovereign bonds, Bond yields, Yield curve, Securities, Exchange rates, Unconventional monetary policy, emerging markets, COVID-19, local currency bond markets., WP

The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP ann...

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries

Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries »

Source: Unconventional Monetary Policies in Emerging Markets and Frontier Countries

Volume/Issue: 2021/014

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chiara Fratto , Brendan Harnoys Vannier , Borislava Mircheva , David de Padua , and Helene Poirson Ward

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513567211

Keywords: Sovereign bonds, Bond yields, Yield curve, Securities, Exchange rates, Unconventional monetary policy, emerging markets, COVID-19, local currency bond markets., WP

The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP ann...

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain

We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain »

Source: We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Risk through International Trade and Supply Chain

Volume/Issue: 2021/013

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alan Feng , and Haishi Li

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513564586

Keywords: Climate change, Stock markets, Foreign currency exposure, Financial sector, Natural disasters, climate risk, financial spillover, supply chain, financial stability, WP

Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our...

Bank Balance Sheets and External Shocks in Asia: The Role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs

Bank Balance Sheets and External Shocks in Asia: The Role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs »

Source: Bank Balance Sheets and External Shocks in Asia: The Role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs

Volume/Issue: 2021/010

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zefeng Chen , Sanaa Nadeem , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566832

Keywords: Income inequality, Foreign direct investment, Capital flows, Remittances, Income, Financial statements, Exchange rates, Foreign assets, Real exchange rates, Foreign exchange

In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler a...

Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy »

Source: Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Volume/Issue: 2021/012

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carine Meyimdjui , and Jean-Louis Combes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566887

Keywords: Household consumption, Commodity price shocks, Government consumption, Exchange rate arrangements, Expenditure, Import Food Price Shocks, Fiscal Policy., WP, government consumption expenditure, government transfer

This paper studies whether fiscal policy plays a stabilizing role in the context of import food price shocks. More precisely, the paper assesses whether fiscal policy dampens the adverse effect of import food price...

Bank Balance Sheets and External Shocks in Asia: The Role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs

Bank Balance Sheets and External Shocks in Asia: The Role of FXI, MPMs and CFMs »

Volume/Issue: 2021/010

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zefeng Chen , Sanaa Nadeem , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566832.001

ISBN: 9781513566832

Keywords: Income inequality, Foreign direct investment, Capital flows, Remittances, Income, Financial statements, Exchange rates, Foreign assets, Real exchange rates, Foreign exchange

In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler a...

Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy

Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2021/012

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carine Meyimdjui , and Jean-Louis Combes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566887.001

ISBN: 9781513566887

Keywords: Household consumption, Commodity price shocks, Government consumption, Exchange rate arrangements, Expenditure, Import Food Price Shocks, Fiscal Policy., WP, government consumption expenditure, government transfer

This paper studies whether fiscal policy plays a stabilizing role in the context of import food price shocks. More precisely, the paper assesses whether fiscal policy dampens the adverse effect of import food price...

Is There Money on the Table? Evidence on the Magnitude of Profit Shifting in the Extractive Industries

Is There Money on the Table? Evidence on the Magnitude of Profit Shifting in the Extractive Industries »

Volume/Issue: 2021/009

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , and Dan Devlin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566801.001

ISBN: 9781513566801

Keywords: Corporate income tax, Tax avoidance, Transfer pricing rules, Mining sector, Natural resources, International Corporate Taxation, Multinational Firms, Mining, Petroleum, Profit Shifting

Profit shifting remains a key concern in international tax system debate, but discussions are largely based on aggregate estimates, with less attention paid to individual sectors. Drawing on a novel dataset, we qua...

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back? »

Volume/Issue: 2021/011

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tahsin Saadi Sedik , and Jiae Yoo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566849.001

ISBN: 9781513566849

Keywords: Robotics, COVID-19 , Income inequality, Automation, Communicable diseases, Pandemics, Robots, Inequality., WP, pandemic event

COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find...

Revisiting the Stabilization Role of Public Banks: Public Debt Matters

Revisiting the Stabilization Role of Public Banks: Public Debt Matters »

Volume/Issue: 2021/007

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): H. Elif Ture

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566788.001

ISBN: 9781513566788

Keywords: State-owned banks, Bank credit, Public debt, Loans, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Public banks, countercyclical lending, economic stabilization, high public debt, WP

This paper revisits the stabilization role of public banks and analyzes whether weak public finances may hinder this role. During the global financial crisis (GFC), public banks were widely used to counter the priv...

The Role of E-Government in Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

The Role of E-Government in Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows »

Volume/Issue: 2021/008

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Al-Sadiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566795.001

ISBN: 9781513566795

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Public employment, Corruption, Logit models, Infrastructure, E-government, Developing Countries, WP, FDI inflow, E-government service

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has helped accelerate the digitization of public services. The lockdown initiated by most governments to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced most public agencies to switc...

Is There Money on the Table? Evidence on the Magnitude of Profit Shifting in the Extractive Industries

Is There Money on the Table? Evidence on the Magnitude of Profit Shifting in the Extractive Industries »

Source: Is There Money on the Table? Evidence on the Magnitude of Profit Shifting in the Extractive Industries

Volume/Issue: 2021/009

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , and Dan Devlin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566801

Keywords: Corporate income tax, Tax avoidance, Transfer pricing rules, Mining sector, Natural resources, International Corporate Taxation, Multinational Firms, Mining, Petroleum, Profit Shifting

Profit shifting remains a key concern in international tax system debate, but discussions are largely based on aggregate estimates, with less attention paid to individual sectors. Drawing on a novel dataset, we qua...

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?1

Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?1 »

Source: Pandemics and Automation: Will the Lost Jobs Come Back?

Volume/Issue: 2021/011

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tahsin Saadi Sedik , and Jiae Yoo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566849

Keywords: Robotics, COVID-19 , Income inequality, Automation, Communicable diseases, Pandemics, Robots, Inequality., WP, pandemic event

COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find...

Revisiting the Stabilization Role of Public Banks: Public Debt Matters

Revisiting the Stabilization Role of Public Banks: Public Debt Matters »

Source: Revisiting the Stabilization Role of Public Banks: Public Debt Matters

Volume/Issue: 2021/007

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): H. Elif Ture

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566788

Keywords: State-owned banks, Bank credit, Public debt, Loans, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Public banks, countercyclical lending, economic stabilization, high public debt, WP

This paper revisits the stabilization role of public banks and analyzes whether weak public finances may hinder this role. During the global financial crisis (GFC), public banks were widely used to counter the priv...

The Role of E-Government in Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

The Role of E-Government in Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows »

Source: The Role of E-Government in Promoting Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

Volume/Issue: 2021/008

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Al-Sadiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566795

Keywords: Foreign direct investment, Public employment, Corruption, Logit models, Infrastructure, E-government, Developing Countries, WP, FDI inflow, E-government service

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has helped accelerate the digitization of public services. The lockdown initiated by most governments to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced most public agencies to switc...

Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay

Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay »

Source: Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay

Volume/Issue: 2021/002

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natasha Che

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513564708

Keywords: Exports, Commodity prices, Real exchange rates, Total factor productivity, Exchange rates, economic growth, Uruguay, commodity price boom, sustainable growth, economy of Uruguay

Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014. Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes of the boom and discusses the sustainabil...

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword »

Source: Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

Volume/Issue: 2021/004

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Barry Eichengreen , Balazs Csonto , Asmaa ElGanainy , and Zsoka Koczan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566382

Keywords: capital flows, capital account, remittances, and inequality.

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different typ...

Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay

Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2021/002

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natasha Che

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564708.001

ISBN: 9781513564708

Keywords: Exports, Commodity prices, Real exchange rates, Total factor productivity, Exchange rates, economic growth, Uruguay, commodity price boom, sustainable growth, economy of Uruguay

Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014. Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes of the boom and discusses the sustainabil...

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword

Financial Globalization and Inequality: Capital Flows as a Two-Edged Sword »

Volume/Issue: 2021/004

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Barry Eichengreen , Balazs Csonto , Asmaa ElGanainy , and Zsoka Koczan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566382.001

ISBN: 9781513566382

Keywords: capital flows, capital account, remittances, and inequality.

We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different typ...

Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis

Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2021/005

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Silvia Iorgova , and Chase Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566412.001

ISBN: 9781513566412

Keywords: Financial crises, Credit default swap, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Securities, Stocks, information production, safe asset, WP, reference securities, information-production ratio

Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks' short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. W...

Politically Robust Financial Regulation

Politically Robust Financial Regulation »

Volume/Issue: 2021/001

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566375.001

ISBN: 9781513566375

Keywords: Bank solvency, Financial sector, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Financial crises, Deposit insurance, Time inconsistency, Political economy, Financial stability, Bank regulation., WP

The deferred recognition of COVID-induced losses at banks in many countries has reignited the debate on regulatory forbearance. This paper presents a model where the public's own political pressure drives regulator...

Some Alternative Monetary Facts

Some Alternative Monetary Facts »

Volume/Issue: 2021/006

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Stella , Manmohan Singh , and Apoorv Bhargava

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566429.001

ISBN: 9781513566429

Keywords: Monetary base, Monetary aggregates, Inflation, Currencies, Demand for money, money aggregates, monetary financing, central bank balance sheet, WP, bank reserves

In this paper, we discuss the modern history of monetarism and its alternatives, as well as the changing empirical relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve co...

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses »

Volume/Issue: 2021/003

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Sanaa Nadeem , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566115.001

ISBN: 9781513566115

Keywords: Capital flows, Exchange rates, Central bank policy rate, Real exchange rates, Credit, Spillovers, international financial cycle, balance sheet, transmission channels, foreign exchange intervention

Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to...

Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis

Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis »

Source: Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2021/005

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Silvia Iorgova , and Chase Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566412

Keywords: Financial crises, Credit default swap, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Securities, Stocks, information production, safe asset, WP, reference securities, information-production ratio

Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks' short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. W...

Politically Robust Financial Regulation

Politically Robust Financial Regulation »

Source: Politically Robust Financial Regulation

Volume/Issue: 2021/001

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566375

Keywords: Bank solvency, Financial sector, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Financial crises, Deposit insurance, Time inconsistency, Political economy, Financial stability, Bank regulation., WP

The deferred recognition of COVID-induced losses at banks in many countries has reignited the debate on regulatory forbearance. This paper presents a model where the public's own political pressure drives regulator...

Some Alternative Monetary Facts

Some Alternative Monetary Facts »

Source: Some Alternative Monetary Facts

Volume/Issue: 2021/006

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Stella , Manmohan Singh , and Apoorv Bhargava

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566429

Keywords: Monetary base, Monetary aggregates, Inflation, Currencies, Demand for money, money aggregates, monetary financing, central bank balance sheet, WP, bank reserves

In this paper, we discuss the modern history of monetarism and its alternatives, as well as the changing empirical relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve co...

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses

The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses »

Source: The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses

Volume/Issue: 2021/003

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pragyan Deb , Sanaa Nadeem , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2021

ISBN: 9781513566115

Keywords: Capital flows, Exchange rates, Central bank policy rate, Real exchange rates, Credit, Spillovers, international financial cycle, balance sheet, transmission channels, foreign exchange intervention

Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to...

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda »

Volume/Issue: 2020/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jan Vlcek , Mikhail Pranovich , Patrick Hitayezu , Bruno Mwenese , and Christian Nyalihama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564630.001

ISBN: 9781513564630

Keywords: Inflation, Food prices, Exchange rates, Central bank policy rate, Real exchange rates, Rwanda, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Quarterly Projection Model, Monetary Policy, Managed Exchange Rate

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-l...

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda1

Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda1 »

Source: Quarterly Projection Model for the National Bank of Rwanda

Volume/Issue: 2020/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jan Vlcek , Mikhail Pranovich , Patrick Hitayezu , Bruno Mwenese , and Christian Nyalihama

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564630

Keywords: Inflation, Food prices, Exchange rates, Central bank policy rate, Real exchange rates, Rwanda, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Quarterly Projection Model, Monetary Policy, Managed Exchange Rate

National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-l...

The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk »

Source: The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

Volume/Issue: 2020/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Roldán

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564739

Keywords: Consumption, Income, Public debt, Income distribution, Wages, Sovereign risk, default, heterogeneous agents, precautionary motives, aggregate demand

Sovereign debt crises coincide with deep recessions. I propose a model of sovereign debt that rationalizes large contractions in economic activity via an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism. The mechanism also...

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic*

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic* »

Source: Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Volume/Issue: 2020/292

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Can Sever , Rohit Goel , Dimitris Drakopoulos , and Evan Papageorgiou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564661

Keywords: Bond yields, Yield curve, Central bank policy rate, Stock markets, Currencies, COVID-19, pandemic, asset purchase program, quantitative easing, bonds

The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcement...

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings »

Source: Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings

Volume/Issue: 2020/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564548

Keywords: Climate change, Credit ratings, International reserves, Credit, Emerging and frontier financial markets, vulnerability, resilience, credit ratings, WP, climate change vulnerability

Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic...

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures »

Source: Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures

Volume/Issue: 2020/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564753

Keywords: Asset prices, Fiscal space, COVID-19 , Stock markets, Fiscal stance, stock prices, event study, exit strategy, WP, government support

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdra...

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India »

Source: House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India

Volume/Issue: 2020/291

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bhupal Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513552514

Keywords: Housing prices, Housing, Loans, Asset prices, Mortgages, bank credit, macroprudential policies, WP, house price, LTV ratio

This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data...

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Effects of Emerging Market Asset Purchase Program Announcements on Financial Markets During the COVID-19 Pandemic »

Volume/Issue: 2020/292

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Can Sever , Rohit Goel , Dimitris Drakopoulos , and Evan Papageorgiou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564661.001

ISBN: 9781513564661

Keywords: Bond yields, Yield curve, Central bank policy rate, Stock markets, Currencies, COVID-19, pandemic, asset purchase program, quantitative easing, bonds

The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcement...

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings

Feeling the Heat: Climate Shocks and Credit Ratings »

Volume/Issue: 2020/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and João Tovar Jalles

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564548.001

ISBN: 9781513564548

Keywords: Climate change, Credit ratings, International reserves, Credit, Emerging and frontier financial markets, vulnerability, resilience, credit ratings, WP, climate change vulnerability

Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic...

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures

Hang in There: Stock Market Reactions to Withdrawals of COVID-19 Stimulus Measures »

Volume/Issue: 2020/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Chan-Lau , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564753.001

ISBN: 9781513564753

Keywords: Asset prices, Fiscal space, COVID-19 , Stock markets, Fiscal stance, stock prices, event study, exit strategy, WP, government support

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdra...

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India

House Prices and Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from City-level Data in India »

Volume/Issue: 2020/291

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bhupal Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513552514.001

ISBN: 9781513552514

Keywords: Housing prices, Housing, Loans, Asset prices, Mortgages, bank credit, macroprudential policies, WP, house price, LTV ratio

This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data...

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/287

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564654.001

ISBN: 9781513564654

Keywords: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Debt burden, Currencies, Corporate investment, Corporate debt, leverage, debt overhang, fixed investment, firm-level

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across...

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helene Poirson Ward , Nathan Porter , Itai Agur , Jiaqian Chen , Johannes Eugster , Stefan Laseen , Jeta Menkulasi , Kenji Moriyama , Celine Rochon , Katsiaryna Svirydzenka , Camilo Tovar Mora , Zhongxia Zhang , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564562.001

ISBN: 9781513564562

Keywords: Central bank policy rate, Exchange rates, Inflation, Exchange rate flexibility, Exchange rate arrangements, Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, policy transmission and effectiveness, macroprudential policy, capital flow management measures

Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs hav...

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/289

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hans Weisfeld , Irineu de Carvalho Filho , Fabio Comelli , Rahul Giri , Klaus-Peter Hellwig , Chengyu Huang , Fei Liu , Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz , Alexis Mayer Cirkel , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564609.001

ISBN: 9781513564609

Keywords: Inflation, Financial crises, Banking crises, Early warning systems, Commodity prices, crisis prediction, machine learning, low-income countries, WP, inflation crisis

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss r...

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown »

Volume/Issue: 2020/294

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sophia Chen , and Do Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564647.001

ISBN: 9781513564647

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Credit default swap, Credit, Financial statements, Financial crises, Credit constraint, Financial crisis, Firm size, Intangibles, Producvitity

We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged...

Sovereign Debt Standstills

Sovereign Debt Standstills »

Volume/Issue: 2020/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , and Cesar Sosa Padilla

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564531.001

ISBN: 9781513564531

Keywords: Debt relief, Securities markets, Debt burden, Asset prices, Personal income, Standstill, Haircuts, COVID-19, Default, Debt Overhang

As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of sta...

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data »

Volume/Issue: 2020/284

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diego Cerdeiro , and Andras Komaromi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564746.001

ISBN: 9781513564746

Keywords: Imports, Spillovers, Plurilateral trade, Foreign currency exposure, COVID-19 , lockdowns, trade, supply chains., WP, lockdown exposure

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (l...

The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk

The Aggregate-Demand Doom Loop: Precautionary Motives and the Welfare Costs of Sovereign Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2020/293

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Roldán

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564739.001

ISBN: 9781513564739

Keywords: Consumption, Income, Public debt, Income distribution, Wages, Sovereign risk, default, heterogeneous agents, precautionary motives, aggregate demand

Sovereign debt crises coincide with deep recessions. I propose a model of sovereign debt that rationalizes large contractions in economic activity via an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism. The mechanism also...

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment »

Source: Leverage Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence on Debt Overhang and Investment

Volume/Issue: 2020/287

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564654

Keywords: Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Debt burden, Currencies, Corporate investment, Corporate debt, leverage, debt overhang, fixed investment, firm-level

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across...

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies

Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies »

Source: Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve Issuing Economies

Volume/Issue: 2020/288

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Helene Poirson Ward , Nathan Porter , Itai Agur , Jiaqian Chen , Johannes Eugster , Stefan Laseen , Jeta Menkulasi , Kenji Moriyama , Celine Rochon , Katsiaryna Svirydzenka , Camilo Tovar Mora , Zhongxia Zhang , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564562

Keywords: Central bank policy rate, Exchange rates, Inflation, Exchange rate flexibility, Exchange rate arrangements, Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, policy transmission and effectiveness, macroprudential policy, capital flow management measures

Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs hav...

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries »

Source: Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

Volume/Issue: 2020/289

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hans Weisfeld , Irineu de Carvalho Filho , Fabio Comelli , Rahul Giri , Klaus-Peter Hellwig , Chengyu Huang , Fei Liu , Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz , Alexis Mayer Cirkel , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564609

Keywords: Inflation, Financial crises, Banking crises, Early warning systems, Commodity prices, crisis prediction, machine learning, low-income countries, WP, inflation crisis

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss r...

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown1

Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown1 »

Source: Small and Vulnerable: Small Firm Productivity in the Great Productivity Slowdown

Volume/Issue: 2020/294

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sophia Chen , and Do Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564647

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Credit default swap, Credit, Financial statements, Financial crises, Credit constraint, Financial crisis, Firm size, Intangibles, Producvitity

We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged...

Sovereign Debt Standstills1

Sovereign Debt Standstills1 »

Source: Sovereign Debt Standstills

Volume/Issue: 2020/290

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Carlos Hatchondo , Leonardo Martinez , and Cesar Sosa Padilla

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564531

Keywords: Debt relief, Securities markets, Debt burden, Asset prices, Personal income, Standstill, Haircuts, COVID-19, Default, Debt Overhang

As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of sta...

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data♠

Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data♠ »

Source: Supply Spillovers During the Pandemic: Evidence from High-Frequency Shipping Data

Volume/Issue: 2020/284

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Diego Cerdeiro , and Andras Komaromi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513564746

Keywords: Imports, Spillovers, Plurilateral trade, Foreign currency exposure, COVID-19 , lockdowns, trade, supply chains., WP, lockdown exposure

World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (l...

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand »

Source: Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Volume/Issue: 2020/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Harald Finger , Yosuke Kido , Siddharth Kothari , and Elena Loukoianova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563282

Keywords: Potential output, Labor force participation, Productivity, Total factor productivity, Capital accumulation, scarring, COVID-19, advanced economies, Australia, New Zealand

While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarrin...

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19*

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19* »

Source: Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

Volume/Issue: 2020/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ariadne Checo , Francesco Grigoli , and José Mota

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513560915

Keywords: Labor, Health, Consumption, Population and demographics, Aging, Optimal containment policies, COVID-19, heterogeneous agents, recession, voluntary social distancing.

The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this pap...

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage*

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage* »

Source: Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Volume/Issue: 2020/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ilhyock Shim , Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan , and Xiaoxi Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513560946

Keywords: Foreign exchange, Exchange rates, Depreciation, Exchange rate adjustments, Currencies, COVID-19, Capital Flows, FX Borrowing, Firm Leverage, WP

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers...

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis†

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis† »

Source: Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2020/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brandon Tan , Maria Martinez Peria , Nicola Pierri , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563886

Keywords: Loans, Bank resolution, Nonperforming loans, Stocks, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Banks, Government intervention, Market power, Lerner index, WP

The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and...

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities »

Source: Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities

Volume/Issue: 2020/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563909

Keywords: Business environment, Corporate insolvency, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Bayesian models, Exports, Structural reforms, Random Forest, Business climate, Shapley values, WP

Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different bu...

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand

Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand »

Volume/Issue: 2020/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Harald Finger , Yosuke Kido , Siddharth Kothari , and Elena Loukoianova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563282.001

ISBN: 9781513563282

Keywords: Potential output, Labor force participation, Productivity, Total factor productivity, Capital accumulation, scarring, COVID-19, advanced economies, Australia, New Zealand

While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarrin...

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19 »

Volume/Issue: 2020/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ariadne Checo , Francesco Grigoli , and José Mota

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560915.001

ISBN: 9781513560915

Keywords: Labor, Health, Consumption, Population and demographics, Aging, Optimal containment policies, COVID-19, heterogeneous agents, recession, voluntary social distancing.

The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this pap...

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage »

Volume/Issue: 2020/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ilhyock Shim , Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan , and Xiaoxi Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560946.001

ISBN: 9781513560946

Keywords: Foreign exchange, Exchange rates, Depreciation, Exchange rate adjustments, Currencies, COVID-19, Capital Flows, FX Borrowing, Firm Leverage, WP

We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers...

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis

Government Intervention and Bank Market Power: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis for the COVID-19 Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2020/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Brandon Tan , Maria Martinez Peria , Nicola Pierri , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563886.001

ISBN: 9781513563886

Keywords: Loans, Bank resolution, Nonperforming loans, Stocks, Global financial crisis of 2008-2009, Banks, Government intervention, Market power, Lerner index, WP

The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and...

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities

Identifying Reform Priorities: The Role of Non-linearities »

Volume/Issue: 2020/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563909.001

ISBN: 9781513563909

Keywords: Business environment, Corporate insolvency, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Bayesian models, Exports, Structural reforms, Random Forest, Business climate, Shapley values, WP

Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different bu...

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules »

Volume/Issue: 2020/274

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Daniel Stoehlker , and Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563855.001

ISBN: 9781513563855

Keywords: Fiscal rules, Budget planning and preparation, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Public debt, fiscal policy, heterogeneous treatment effects, synthetic control, difference-in-differences, WP

This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a...

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age »

Volume/Issue: 2020/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563961.001

ISBN: 9781513563961

Keywords: Women, Aging, Gender, COVID-19 , Education, lockdown, mobility, age., WP, lockdown measure

Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indica...

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium »

Volume/Issue: 2020/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt , Susanna Mursula , Rafael Portillo , and Marika Santoro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561615.001

ISBN: 9781513561615

Keywords: Tariffs, Imports, Exports, Trade balance, Exchange rates, Trade policy, trade elasticity, Nominal and real rigidities, general equilibrium, WP

In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE)...

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History »

Volume/Issue: 2020/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563893.001

ISBN: 9781513563893

Keywords: COVID-19 , Communicable diseases, Population and demographics, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Pandemics, nonfinancial corporate performance, firm-level, WP, nonfinancial firm

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically...

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam »

Volume/Issue: 2020/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Giovanni Ganelli , Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen , and Thuy Thi Thu Vu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563862.001

ISBN: 9781513563862

Keywords: Informal employment, Wages, Labor, Employment, Labor markets, informality, Vietnam, Labor Force Survey, labor market segmentation, structural reforms

Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality and transitions from fo...

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike »

Volume/Issue: 2020/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Federico Di Pace , Luciana Juvenal , and Ivan Petrella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563916.001

ISBN: 9781513563916

Keywords: Export prices, Import prices, Terms of trade, Exports, Commodities, Commodity Prices, Business Cycles, World Shocks, WP, price shock

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not...

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2020/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose L. Torres , and Sidonia McKenzie

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563947.001

ISBN: 9781513563947

Keywords: Unemployment, Labor markets, Unemployment rate, Employment, Labor, labor market, youth unemployment, labor rigidities, synthetic panel., WP

Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, w...

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules »

Source: Individual Treatment Effects of Budget Balance Rules

Volume/Issue: 2020/274

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Daniel Stoehlker , and Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563855

Keywords: Fiscal rules, Budget planning and preparation, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Public debt, fiscal policy, heterogeneous treatment effects, synthetic control, difference-in-differences, WP

This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a...

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age*

Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age* »

Source: Mobility under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects across Gender and Age

Volume/Issue: 2020/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Damiano Sandri , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563961

Keywords: Women, Aging, Gender, COVID-19 , Education, lockdown, mobility, age., WP, lockdown measure

Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indica...

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium »

Source: Modeling Trade Tensions: Different Mechanisms in General Equilibrium

Volume/Issue: 2020/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt , Susanna Mursula , Rafael Portillo , and Marika Santoro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513561615

Keywords: Tariffs, Imports, Exports, Trade balance, Exchange rates, Trade policy, trade elasticity, Nominal and real rigidities, general equilibrium, WP

In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE)...

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History »

Source: Pandemics and Firms: Drawing Lessons from History

Volume/Issue: 2020/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Fedor Miryugin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563893

Keywords: COVID-19 , Communicable diseases, Population and demographics, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial sector development, Pandemics, nonfinancial corporate performance, firm-level, WP, nonfinancial firm

The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically...

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam »

Source: Role of Individual Characteristics and Policies in Driving Labor Informality in Vietnam

Volume/Issue: 2020/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Giovanni Ganelli , Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen , Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen , and Thuy Thi Thu Vu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563862

Keywords: Informal employment, Wages, Labor, Employment, Labor markets, informality, Vietnam, Labor Force Survey, labor market segmentation, structural reforms

Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality and transitions from fo...

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike*

Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike* »

Source: Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

Volume/Issue: 2020/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Federico Di Pace , Luciana Juvenal , and Ivan Petrella

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563916

Keywords: Export prices, Import prices, Terms of trade, Exports, Commodities, Commodity Prices, Business Cycles, World Shocks, WP, price shock

When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not...

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay

Youth Unemployment in Uruguay »

Source: Youth Unemployment in Uruguay

Volume/Issue: 2020/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose L. Torres , and Sidonia McKenzie

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563947

Keywords: Unemployment, Labor markets, Unemployment rate, Employment, Labor, labor market, youth unemployment, labor rigidities, synthetic panel., WP

Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, w...

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability »

Source: Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Volume/Issue: 2020/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , and Armand Fouejieu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513557496

Keywords: Public debt, Fiscal policy, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Fiscal risks, Debt, fiscal deficit, sustainability, stochastic simulations., WP

Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fisc...

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America »

Source: Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Volume/Issue: 2020/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Janada , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563275

Keywords: Labor costs, Vector error correction models, Vector autoregression, Business environment, Private investment, determinants of investment, confidence, uncertainty, VAR, VECM

This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of...

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity*

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity* »

Source: Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity

Volume/Issue: 2020/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gareth Anderson , and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563336

Keywords: Credit, Bonds, Monetary tightening, Corporate bonds, Credit ratings, monetary policy, heterogeneity, credit spreads, excess bond premium, credit channel

Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-finan...

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU1

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU1 »

Source: Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU

Volume/Issue: 2020/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

ISBN: 9781513563329

Keywords: Insurance, Standing facilities, Natural disasters, Public debt, Stocks, ECCU, fiscal cycles, Monte Carlo experiment, debt sustainability., WP

This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well...

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability

Assessing Dutch Fiscal and Debt Sustainability »

Volume/Issue: 2020/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , and Armand Fouejieu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557496.001

ISBN: 9781513557496

Keywords: Public debt, Fiscal policy, Government debt management, Fiscal stance, Fiscal risks, Debt, fiscal deficit, sustainability, stochastic simulations., WP

Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fisc...

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU

Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU »

Volume/Issue: 2020/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563329.001

ISBN: 9781513563329

Keywords: Insurance, Standing facilities, Natural disasters, Public debt, Stocks, ECCU, fiscal cycles, Monte Carlo experiment, debt sustainability., WP

This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well...

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America

Confidence as a Driver of Private Investment in Selected Countries of Central America »

Volume/Issue: 2020/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Janada , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563275.001

ISBN: 9781513563275

Keywords: Labor costs, Vector error correction models, Vector autoregression, Business environment, Private investment, determinants of investment, confidence, uncertainty, VAR, VECM

This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of...

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity

Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity »

Volume/Issue: 2020/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gareth Anderson , and Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563336.001

ISBN: 9781513563336

Keywords: Credit, Bonds, Monetary tightening, Corporate bonds, Credit ratings, monetary policy, heterogeneity, credit spreads, excess bond premium, credit channel

Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-finan...

Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China

Incomplete Financial Markets and the Booming Housing Sector in China »

Volume/Issue: 2020/265

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Yunhui Zhao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561639.001

ISBN: 9781513561639

Keywords: Housing prices, Housing, Consumption, Securities markets, Stock markets, Chinese housing, COVID-19, Financial market incompleteness, DSGE, WP

Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households' balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much a...

Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK

Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK »

Volume/Issue: 2020/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Arregui , and Ian Parry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 December 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561264.001

ISBN: 9781513561264

Keywords: Carbon tax, Greenhouse gas emissions, Public expenditure review, Transportation, Climate change, net-zero, UK climate mitigation, carbon pricing, feebate, international carbon price floor.

The UK has pledged to cut greenhouse gases 57 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to be emisisons neutral by 2050, and to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Much progress has been made, but fully...