Volume/Issue: 2021/015
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Timothy Hills
,
Huy Nguyen
, and
Randa Sab
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567778
This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We...
Volume/Issue: 2021/020
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Luis Cubeddu
,
Swarnali Hannan
, and
Pau Rabanal
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513568102
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries' external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and em...
Volume/Issue: 2021/017
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
John Hooley
,
Lam Nguyen
,
Mika Saito
, and
Shirin Nikaein Towfighian
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567747
This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroe...
Volume/Issue: 2021/016
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
W. Bauer
,
R. Craig
,
José Garrido
,
Kenneth Kang
,
Kenichiro Kashiwase
,
Sung Jin Kim
,
Yan Liu
, and
Sohrab Rafiq
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513568096
The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a sharp contraction of economic activity across Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers adopted a 'whatever it takes' approach in their initial response, relying mainly on li...
Volume/Issue: 2021/015
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Timothy Hills
,
Huy Nguyen
, and
Randa Sab
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567778.001
ISBN: 9781513567778
This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We...
Volume/Issue: 2021/020
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Luis Cubeddu
,
Swarnali Hannan
, and
Pau Rabanal
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513568102.001
ISBN: 9781513568102
Building on the vast literature, this paper focuses on the role of the structure of the international investment position (IIP) in affecting countries' external vulnerabilities. Using a sample of 73 advanced and em...
Volume/Issue: 2021/017
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
John Hooley
,
Lam Nguyen
,
Mika Saito
, and
Shirin Nikaein Towfighian
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567747.001
ISBN: 9781513567747
This paper explores the causes and consequences of fiscal dominance over monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fiscal dominance has always been a pressing problem as it can contribute to inflation and macroe...
Volume/Issue: 2021/016
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
W. Bauer
,
R. Craig
,
José Garrido
,
Kenneth Kang
,
Kenichiro Kashiwase
,
Sung Jin Kim
,
Yan Liu
, and
Sohrab Rafiq
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513568096.001
ISBN: 9781513568096
The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) triggered a sharp contraction of economic activity across Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers adopted a 'whatever it takes' approach in their initial response, relying mainly on li...
Volume/Issue: 2021/018
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Davide Furceri
,
Michael Ganslmeier
,
Jonathan Ostry
, and
Naihan Yang
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567013.001
ISBN: 9781513567013
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging t...
Volume/Issue: 2021/019
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Vigninou Gammadigbe
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567716.001
ISBN: 9781513567716
The main objective of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is to stimulate economic growth in participating countries through increased trade, economies of scale, knowledge and technology transfer. Using a panel data o...
Volume/Issue: 2021/021
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Philip Barrett
, and
Sophia Chen
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567723.001
ISBN: 9781513567723
Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social...
Volume/Issue: 2021/018
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Davide Furceri
,
Michael Ganslmeier
,
Jonathan Ostry
, and
Naihan Yang
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567013
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of observed initial output losses using model-averaging t...
Volume/Issue: 2021/019
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Vigninou Gammadigbe
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567716
The main objective of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) is to stimulate economic growth in participating countries through increased trade, economies of scale, knowledge and technology transfer. Using a panel data o...
Volume/Issue: 2021/021
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Philip Barrett
, and
Sophia Chen
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
29
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567723
Epidemics may have social scarring effects, increasing the likelihood of social unrest. They may also have mitigating effect, suppressing unrest by dissuading social activities. Using a new monthly panel on social...
Volume/Issue: 2021/013
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Alan Feng
, and
Haishi Li
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
22
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564586.001
ISBN: 9781513564586
Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our...
Volume/Issue: 2021/014
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Chiara Fratto
,
Brendan Harnoys Vannier
,
Borislava Mircheva
,
David de Padua
, and
Helene Poirson Ward
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
22
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567211.001
ISBN: 9781513567211
The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP ann...
Volume/Issue: 2021/014
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Chiara Fratto
,
Brendan Harnoys Vannier
,
Borislava Mircheva
,
David de Padua
, and
Helene Poirson Ward
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
22
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513567211
The COVID-19 crisis induced an unprecedented launch of unconventional monetary policy through asset purchase programs (APPs) by emerging market and developing economies. This paper presents a new dataset of APP ann...
Volume/Issue: 2021/013
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Alan Feng
, and
Haishi Li
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
22
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513564586
Are assets in a landlocked country subject to sea-level rise risk? In this paper, we study the cross-border spillovers of physical climate risks through international trade and supply chain linkages. As we base our...
Volume/Issue: 2021/010
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Zefeng Chen
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Shanaka Peiris
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566832
In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler a...
Volume/Issue: 2021/012
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Carine Meyimdjui
, and
Jean-Louis Combes
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566887
This paper studies whether fiscal policy plays a stabilizing role in the context of import food price shocks. More precisely, the paper assesses whether fiscal policy dampens the adverse effect of import food price...
Volume/Issue: 2021/010
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Zefeng Chen
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Shanaka Peiris
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566832.001
ISBN: 9781513566832
In emerging Asia, banks constitute the dominant source of financing consumption and investment, and bank balance sheets comprise large gross FX assets and liabilities. This paper extends the DSGE model of Gertler a...
Volume/Issue: 2021/012
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Carine Meyimdjui
, and
Jean-Louis Combes
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566887.001
ISBN: 9781513566887
This paper studies whether fiscal policy plays a stabilizing role in the context of import food price shocks. More precisely, the paper assesses whether fiscal policy dampens the adverse effect of import food price...
Volume/Issue: 2021/009
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Sebastian Beer
, and
Dan Devlin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566801.001
ISBN: 9781513566801
Profit shifting remains a key concern in international tax system debate, but discussions are largely based on aggregate estimates, with less attention paid to individual sectors. Drawing on a novel dataset, we qua...
Volume/Issue: 2021/011
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
, and
Jiae Yoo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566849.001
ISBN: 9781513566849
COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find...
Volume/Issue: 2021/007
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
H. Elif Ture
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566788.001
ISBN: 9781513566788
This paper revisits the stabilization role of public banks and analyzes whether weak public finances may hinder this role. During the global financial crisis (GFC), public banks were widely used to counter the priv...
Volume/Issue: 2021/008
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ali Al-Sadiq
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566795.001
ISBN: 9781513566795
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has helped accelerate the digitization of public services. The lockdown initiated by most governments to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced most public agencies to switc...
Volume/Issue: 2021/009
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Sebastian Beer
, and
Dan Devlin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566801
Profit shifting remains a key concern in international tax system debate, but discussions are largely based on aggregate estimates, with less attention paid to individual sectors. Drawing on a novel dataset, we qua...
Volume/Issue: 2021/011
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
, and
Jiae Yoo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566849
COVID-19 has exacerbated concerns about the rise of the robots and other automation technologies. This paper analyzes empirically the impact of past major pandemics on robot adoption and inequality. First, we find...
Volume/Issue: 2021/007
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
H. Elif Ture
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566788
This paper revisits the stabilization role of public banks and analyzes whether weak public finances may hinder this role. During the global financial crisis (GFC), public banks were widely used to counter the priv...
Volume/Issue: 2021/008
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ali Al-Sadiq
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
15
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566795
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has helped accelerate the digitization of public services. The lockdown initiated by most governments to curb the spread of the coronavirus forced most public agencies to switc...
Volume/Issue: 2021/002
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Natasha Che
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513564708
Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014.
Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes
of the boom and discusses the sustainabil...
Volume/Issue: 2021/004
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Barry Eichengreen
,
Balazs Csonto
,
Asmaa ElGanainy
, and
Zsoka Koczan
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566382
We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different typ...
Volume/Issue: 2021/002
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Natasha Che
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564708.001
ISBN: 9781513564708
Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014.
Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes
of the boom and discusses the sustainabil...
Volume/Issue: 2021/004
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Barry Eichengreen
,
Balazs Csonto
,
Asmaa ElGanainy
, and
Zsoka Koczan
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566382.001
ISBN: 9781513566382
We review the debate on the association of financial globalization with inequality. We show that the within-country distributional impact of capital account liberalization is context specific and that different typ...
Volume/Issue: 2021/005
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Silvia Iorgova
, and
Chase Ross
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566412.001
ISBN: 9781513566412
Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks' short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. W...
Volume/Issue: 2021/001
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Itai Agur
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566375.001
ISBN: 9781513566375
The deferred recognition of COVID-induced losses at banks in many countries has
reignited the debate on regulatory forbearance. This paper presents a model where the
public's own political pressure drives regulator...
Volume/Issue: 2021/006
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Peter Stella
,
Manmohan Singh
, and
Apoorv Bhargava
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566429.001
ISBN: 9781513566429
In this paper, we discuss the modern history of monetarism and its alternatives, as well as the changing empirical relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve co...
Volume/Issue: 2021/003
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Pragyan Deb
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Shanaka Peiris
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513566115.001
ISBN: 9781513566115
Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to...
Volume/Issue: 2021/005
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Silvia Iorgova
, and
Chase Ross
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566412
Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks' short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. W...
Volume/Issue: 2021/001
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Itai Agur
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566375
The deferred recognition of COVID-induced losses at banks in many countries has
reignited the debate on regulatory forbearance. This paper presents a model where the
public's own political pressure drives regulator...
Volume/Issue: 2021/006
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Peter Stella
,
Manmohan Singh
, and
Apoorv Bhargava
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566429
In this paper, we discuss the modern history of monetarism and its alternatives, as well as the changing empirical relationship of various measures of money and inflation. After demonstrating that previous naïve co...
Volume/Issue: 2021/003
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Pragyan Deb
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Shanaka Peiris
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
08
January
2021
ISBN: 9781513566115
Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to...
Volume/Issue: 2020/295
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jan Vlcek
,
Mikhail Pranovich
,
Patrick Hitayezu
,
Bruno Mwenese
, and
Christian Nyalihama
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
21
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564630.001
ISBN: 9781513564630
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-l...
Volume/Issue: 2020/295
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jan Vlcek
,
Mikhail Pranovich
,
Patrick Hitayezu
,
Bruno Mwenese
, and
Christian Nyalihama
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
21
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564630
National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) modernized monetary policy and transited to the price-based policy framework in January 2019. The Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) is the cornerstone for the new forward-l...
Volume/Issue: 2020/293
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francisco Roldán
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564739
Sovereign debt crises coincide with deep recessions. I propose a model of sovereign debt that rationalizes large contractions in economic activity via an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism. The mechanism also...
Volume/Issue: 2020/292
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Can Sever
,
Rohit Goel
,
Dimitris Drakopoulos
, and
Evan Papageorgiou
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564661
The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcement...
Volume/Issue: 2020/286
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
João Tovar Jalles
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564548
Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic...
Volume/Issue: 2020/285
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jorge Chan-Lau
, and
Yunhui Zhao
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564753
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdra...
Volume/Issue: 2020/291
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Bhupal Singh
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513552514
This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data...
Volume/Issue: 2020/292
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Can Sever
,
Rohit Goel
,
Dimitris Drakopoulos
, and
Evan Papageorgiou
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564661.001
ISBN: 9781513564661
The COVID-19 pandemic led many emerging market central banks to adopt, for the first time, unconventional policies in the form of asset purchase programs. In this study, we analyze the effects of these announcement...
Volume/Issue: 2020/286
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
João Tovar Jalles
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564548.001
ISBN: 9781513564548
Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy like no other, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic...
Volume/Issue: 2020/285
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jorge Chan-Lau
, and
Yunhui Zhao
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564753.001
ISBN: 9781513564753
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted unprecedented economic stimulus worldwide. We empirically examine the impact of a withdrawal of fiscal stimulus policies on the stock markets. After constructing a database of withdra...
Volume/Issue: 2020/291
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Bhupal Singh
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513552514.001
ISBN: 9781513552514
This paper examines the efficacy of macroprudential policies in addressing housing prices in a developing country while underscoring the importance of fundamental factors. The estimated models using city-level data...
Volume/Issue: 2020/287
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
Fedor Miryugin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564654.001
ISBN: 9781513564654
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across...
Volume/Issue: 2020/288
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Helene Poirson Ward
,
Nathan Porter
,
Itai Agur
,
Jiaqian Chen
,
Johannes Eugster
,
Stefan Laseen
,
Jeta Menkulasi
,
Kenji Moriyama
,
Celine Rochon
,
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
,
Camilo Tovar Mora
,
Zhongxia Zhang
, and
Aleksandra Zdzienicka
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564562.001
ISBN: 9781513564562
Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs hav...
Volume/Issue: 2020/289
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Hans Weisfeld
,
Irineu de Carvalho Filho
,
Fabio Comelli
,
Rahul Giri
,
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
,
Chengyu Huang
,
Fei Liu
,
Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz
,
Alexis Mayer Cirkel
, and
Andrea Presbitero
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564609.001
ISBN: 9781513564609
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss r...
Volume/Issue: 2020/294
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Sophia Chen
, and
Do Lee
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564647.001
ISBN: 9781513564647
We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged...
Volume/Issue: 2020/290
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Juan Carlos Hatchondo
,
Leonardo Martinez
, and
Cesar Sosa Padilla
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564531.001
ISBN: 9781513564531
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of sta...
Volume/Issue: 2020/284
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Diego Cerdeiro
, and
Andras Komaromi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564746.001
ISBN: 9781513564746
World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (l...
Volume/Issue: 2020/293
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francisco Roldán
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564739.001
ISBN: 9781513564739
Sovereign debt crises coincide with deep recessions. I propose a model of sovereign debt that rationalizes large contractions in economic activity via an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism. The mechanism also...
Volume/Issue: 2020/287
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
Fedor Miryugin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564654
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the coronavirus pandemic. This systemic risk like no other at a time of record-breaking debt levels, especially among nonfinancial firms across...
Volume/Issue: 2020/288
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Helene Poirson Ward
,
Nathan Porter
,
Itai Agur
,
Jiaqian Chen
,
Johannes Eugster
,
Stefan Laseen
,
Jeta Menkulasi
,
Kenji Moriyama
,
Celine Rochon
,
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
,
Camilo Tovar Mora
,
Zhongxia Zhang
, and
Aleksandra Zdzienicka
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564562
Since the global financial crisis, non-reserve-issuing economies (NREs) have been highly sensitive to episodes of external pressures. With monetary policy independence constrained by this sensitivity, many NREs hav...
Volume/Issue: 2020/289
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Hans Weisfeld
,
Irineu de Carvalho Filho
,
Fabio Comelli
,
Rahul Giri
,
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
,
Chengyu Huang
,
Fei Liu
,
Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz
,
Alexis Mayer Cirkel
, and
Andrea Presbitero
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564609
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss r...
Volume/Issue: 2020/294
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Sophia Chen
, and
Do Lee
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564647
We provide broad-based evidence of a firm size premium of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Europe after the Global Financial Crisis. The TFP growth of smaller firms was more adversely affected and diverged...
Volume/Issue: 2020/290
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Juan Carlos Hatchondo
,
Leonardo Martinez
, and
Cesar Sosa Padilla
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564531
As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of sta...
Volume/Issue: 2020/284
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Diego Cerdeiro
, and
Andras Komaromi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
18
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513564746
World trade contracted dramatically during the global economic crisis induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Disruptions in international supply chains were widely reported as governments imposed containment measures (l...
Volume/Issue: 2020/272
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Geoffrey Bannister
,
Harald Finger
,
Yosuke Kido
,
Siddharth Kothari
, and
Elena Loukoianova
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563282
While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarrin...
Volume/Issue: 2020/277
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ariadne Checo
,
Francesco Grigoli
, and
José Mota
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513560915
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this pap...
Volume/Issue: 2020/283
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ilhyock Shim
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
, and
Xiaoxi Liu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513560946
We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers...
Volume/Issue: 2020/275
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Brandon Tan
,
Maria Martinez Peria
,
Nicola Pierri
, and
Andrea Presbitero
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563886
The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and...
Volume/Issue: 2020/278
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563909
Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different bu...
Volume/Issue: 2020/272
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Geoffrey Bannister
,
Harald Finger
,
Yosuke Kido
,
Siddharth Kothari
, and
Elena Loukoianova
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563282.001
ISBN: 9781513563282
While the world is focused on addressing the near-term ramifications of the COVID-19 shock, we turn attention to another important aspect of the pandemic: its fallout on medium-term potential output through scarrin...
Volume/Issue: 2020/277
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ariadne Checo
,
Francesco Grigoli
, and
José Mota
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560915.001
ISBN: 9781513560915
The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this pap...
Volume/Issue: 2020/283
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Ilhyock Shim
,
Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
, and
Xiaoxi Liu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513560946.001
ISBN: 9781513560946
We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers...
Volume/Issue: 2020/275
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Brandon Tan
,
Maria Martinez Peria
,
Nicola Pierri
, and
Andrea Presbitero
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563886.001
ISBN: 9781513563886
The COVID-19 pandemic could result in large government interventions in the banking industry. To shed light on the possible consequences on market power, we rely on the experience of the global financial crisis and...
Volume/Issue: 2020/278
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563909.001
ISBN: 9781513563909
Can countries improve their business climate through reforms in specific policy areas? Kraay and Tawara (2013) find that the answer depends on how we measure the business climate. When regressing seven different bu...
Volume/Issue: 2020/274
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francesca Caselli
,
Daniel Stoehlker
, and
Philippe Wingender
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563855.001
ISBN: 9781513563855
This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a...
Volume/Issue: 2020/282
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francesca Caselli
,
Francesco Grigoli
,
Damiano Sandri
, and
Antonio Spilimbergo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563961.001
ISBN: 9781513563961
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indica...
Volume/Issue: 2020/279
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Benjamin Hunt
,
Susanna Mursula
,
Rafael Portillo
, and
Marika Santoro
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561615.001
ISBN: 9781513561615
In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE)...
Volume/Issue: 2020/276
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
Fedor Miryugin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563893.001
ISBN: 9781513563893
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically...
Volume/Issue: 2020/273
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Era Dabla-Norris
,
Giovanni Ganelli
,
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
,
Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen
, and
Thuy Thi Thu Vu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563862.001
ISBN: 9781513563862
Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most
salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality
and transitions from fo...
Volume/Issue: 2020/280
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Federico Di Pace
,
Luciana Juvenal
, and
Ivan Petrella
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563916.001
ISBN: 9781513563916
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not...
Volume/Issue: 2020/281
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jose L. Torres
, and
Sidonia McKenzie
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563947.001
ISBN: 9781513563947
Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, w...
Volume/Issue: 2020/274
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francesca Caselli
,
Daniel Stoehlker
, and
Philippe Wingender
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563855
This paper investigates the heterogenous effects of budget balance rules on fiscal policy in a large sample of countries. To derive country-specific treatment effects of fiscal rules and conduct inference, we use a...
Volume/Issue: 2020/282
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Francesca Caselli
,
Francesco Grigoli
,
Damiano Sandri
, and
Antonio Spilimbergo
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563961
Lockdowns and voluntary social distancing led to significant reduction in people's mobility. Yet, there is scant evidence on the heterogeneous effects across segments of the population. Using unique mobility indica...
Volume/Issue: 2020/279
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Benjamin Hunt
,
Susanna Mursula
,
Rafael Portillo
, and
Marika Santoro
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513561615
In this paper, we investigate the mechanisms through which import tariffs impact the macroeconomy in two large scale workhorse models used for quantitative policy analysis: a computational general equilibrium (CGE)...
Volume/Issue: 2020/276
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Serhan Cevik
, and
Fedor Miryugin
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563893
The global economy is in the midst of an unprecedented slump caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To assess the likely evolution of nonfinancial corporate performance going forward, this paper investigates empirically...
Volume/Issue: 2020/273
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Era Dabla-Norris
,
Giovanni Ganelli
,
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
,
Mai Thi Thanh Nguyen
, and
Thuy Thi Thu Vu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563862
Using data from the Vietnam Labor Force Survey, this paper takes a granular look at the most
salient drivers of labor informality in Vietnam by examining: (i) the nature of labor informality
and transitions from fo...
Volume/Issue: 2020/280
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Federico Di Pace
,
Luciana Juvenal
, and
Ivan Petrella
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563916
When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not...
Volume/Issue: 2020/281
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Jose L. Torres
, and
Sidonia McKenzie
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
11
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563947
Uruguay enjoys favorable social outcomes, and its labor indicators are comparable to other Latin American countries, but its youth unemployment is one of the highest in the world. To help understand this duality, w...
Volume/Issue: 2020/269
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Benjamin Carton
, and
Armand Fouejieu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513557496
Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fisc...
Volume/Issue: 2020/270
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Carlos Janada
, and
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563275
This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of...
Volume/Issue: 2020/267
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Gareth Anderson
, and
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563336
Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-finan...
Volume/Issue: 2020/266
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Alejandro Guerson
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
ISBN: 9781513563329
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well...
Volume/Issue: 2020/269
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Benjamin Carton
, and
Armand Fouejieu
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557496.001
ISBN: 9781513557496
Although the Netherlands entered the so-called Great Lockdown with a strong fiscal position, the Dutch fiscal balance is projected to deteriorate by an unprecedented magnitude, largely as a result of necessary fisc...
Volume/Issue: 2020/266
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Alejandro Guerson
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563329.001
ISBN: 9781513563329
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well...
Volume/Issue: 2020/270
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Carlos Janada
, and
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563275.001
ISBN: 9781513563275
This paper argues that structural weaknesses may make private investment particularly sensitive to business confidence relative to other traditional investment drivers and global shocks. It gauges the importance of...
Volume/Issue: 2020/267
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Gareth Anderson
, and
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563336.001
ISBN: 9781513563336
Credit spreads rise after a monetary policy tightening, yet spread reactions are heterogeneous across firms. Exploiting information from a panel of corporate bonds matched with balance sheet data for U.S. non-finan...
Volume/Issue: 2020/265
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Tamim Bayoumi
, and
Yunhui Zhao
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561639.001
ISBN: 9781513561639
Housing is by far the most important asset in Chinese households' balance sheets. However, despite forceful and frequent government interventions, the rise in Chinese housing prices has not been contained as much a...
Volume/Issue: 2020/268
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s):
Nicolas Arregui
, and
Ian Parry
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date:
04
December
2020
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513561264.001
ISBN: 9781513561264
The UK has pledged to cut greenhouse gases 57 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, to be emisisons neutral by 2050, and to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2030. Much progress has been made, but fully...