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How to Organize Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets
			: Key Considerations

How to Organize Central Securities Depositories in Developing Markets : Key Considerations »

Volume: 19

Series: IMF How To Notes

Author(s): Froukelien Wendt , Peter Katz , and Alice Zanza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484397312.061

ISBN: 9781484397312

Keywords: Securities markets, Securities regulations, Depositories, Developing countries, Monetary policy

The key objective of this note is to support authorities in their decision making about the optimal organization of central securities depositories (CSDs) in their country. For the purpose of this note, a CSD is de...

Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia's Local Currency Bond Market

Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia's Local Currency Bond Market »

Volume/Issue: 2019/23

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): David Grigorian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393161.001

ISBN: 9781484393161

Keywords: Malaysia, Asia and Pacific, Debt markets, International financial markets, nonresident investors, volatility, Asset Pricing

Malaysia's local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a...

Reform Options for Mature Defined Benefit Pension Plans: The Case of the Netherlands

Reform Options for Mature Defined Benefit Pension Plans: The Case of the Netherlands »

Volume/Issue: 2019/22

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marc Gerard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484395912.001

ISBN: 9781484395912

Keywords: pension funds, defined benefit plans, defined contribution plans, fully funded, pension mathematics, stress tests

The Netherlands has been operating fully funded, defined benefit second pillar pension schemes that have consistently ranked high worldwide for delivering high replacement rates while featuring strong solidarity am...

Winds of Change
			: The Case for New Digital Currency

Winds of Change : The Case for New Digital Currency »

Series: IMF Speeches

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389171.076

ISBN: 9781484389171

Winds of Change...

Commodity Terms of Trade
			: A New Database

Commodity Terms of Trade : A New Database »

Volume/Issue: 2019/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss , and Suhaib Kebhaj

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393857.001

ISBN: 9781484393857

Keywords: Commodity terms of trade; terms of trade; commodity prices, Commodity terms of trade, terms of trade, commodity prices, General

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individu...

Fiscal Policy and Development
			: Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs

Fiscal Policy and Development : Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs »

Volume/Issue: 2019/3

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Vitor Gaspar , David Amaglobeli , Mercedes Garcia-Escribano , Delphine Prady , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388914.006

ISBN: 9781484388914

Keywords: Sustainable development, Foreign aid, Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), Development, Fiscal policy, Sustainable Development Goals; Fiscal Policy, Sustainable Development Goals, Structure and Scope of Government, General, International Fiscal Issues

The goal of this paper is to estimate the additional annual spending required for meaningful progress on the SDGs in these areas. Our estimates refer to additional spending in 2030, relative to a baseline of curren...

Work In Progress
			: Improving Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

Work In Progress : Improving Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Emerging Market and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2019/2

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): JaeBin Ahn , Zidong An , John Bluedorn , Gabriele Ciminelli , Zsoka Koczan , Davide Malacrino , Daniela Muhaj , and Patricia Neidlinger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393901.006

ISBN: 9781484393901

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Fiscal reforms, Product markets, Population, Emerging markets, Developing countries, Youth labor markets; emerging market and developing economies; Okun's law; labor and product market institutions; structural reforms, youth labor markets, emerging market and developing economies

Economic development and growth depend on a country's young people. With most of their working life ahead of them they make up about a third of the working-age population in the typical emerging market and developi...

Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?

Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Corrales , and Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393192.001

ISBN: 9781484393192

Keywords: Dollarization, Foreign exchange, Household, Firm, Financial deepening, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

Using a newly complied and extended database from International Financial Statistics, and applying different panel-regression techniques, this paper documents the evolution of households' and firms' dollarization o...

Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach

Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2019/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Burcu Hacibedel , Pierre Mandon , Priscilla Muthoora , and Nathalie Pouokam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392911.001

ISBN: 9781484392911

Keywords: Developing countries, Inequality, Growth, Mediation analysis, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, General

This paper provides evidence of a strong relationship between the short-term dynamics of growth and inequality in developing economies. We find that reductions in inequality during growth upswings are largely rever...

Global Value Chains: What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate?

Global Value Chains: What are the Benefits and Why Do Countries Participate? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Faezeh Raei , Anna Ignatenko , and Borislava Mircheva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392928.001

ISBN: 9781484392928

Keywords: Economic integration, Trade, global value chains, gains from trade, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

Over the last two decades, world trade and production have become increasingly organized around global value chains (GVC). Recent theoretical work has shown that countries can benefit from participation in GVCs thr...

Innovation and Corporate Cash Holdings in the Era of Globalization

Innovation and Corporate Cash Holdings in the Era of Globalization »

Volume/Issue: 2019/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Konrad Adler , JaeBin Ahn , and Mai Chi Dao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392164.001

ISBN: 9781484392164

Keywords: International trade, cash holdings, R&;D, R&;amp;#x0026;D, Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

We document a broad-based trend in rising cash holdings of firms across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, a trend that is most pronounced for firms engaged strongly in R&D activities. Our co...

Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan

Gross National Happiness and Macroeconomic Indicators in the Kingdom of Bhutan »

Volume/Issue: 2019/15

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sriram Balasubramanian , and Paul Cashin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389713.001

ISBN: 9781484389713

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Bhutan, Gross domestic product, real income, gross national happiness, Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, General

This paper examines the origins and use of the concept of Gross National Happiness (or subjective well-being) in the Kingdom of Bhutan, and the relationship between measured well-being and macroeconomic indicators....

China's Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks

China's Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks »

Volume/Issue: 2019/16

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Longmei Zhang , and Sally Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389706.001

ISBN: 9781484389706

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Digital economy; Fintech; Productivity; Employment; Financial stability, Digital economy, Fintech, Productivity, Employment, Financial stability, Government Policy and Regulation, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, General

China's digital economy has expanded rapidly in recent years. While average digitalization of the economy remains lower than in advanced economies, digitalization is already high in certain regions and sectors, in...

Corporate Tax Reform: From Income to Cash Flow Taxes

Corporate Tax Reform: From Income to Cash Flow Taxes »

Volume/Issue: 2019/13

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Carton , Emilio Fernández Corugedo , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390085.001

ISBN: 9781484390085

Keywords: tax policy; business taxation, corporate leverage, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; macroeconomic interdependence, tax policy, business taxation, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

This paper uses a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model to estimate the macroeconomic impact of a tax reform that replaces a corporate income tax (CIT) with a destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT). Two key ch...

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants »

Volume/Issue: 2019/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Maurice Obstfeld , and Haonan Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390122.001

ISBN: 9781484390122

Keywords: International financial markets, Foreign exchange, Covered Interest Parity, Interest Rate Differentials, Forward FX M, Forward FX Market

For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely-even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only ha...

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2019/12

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390047.001

ISBN: 9781484390047

Keywords: Asset prices, present value, corporate earnings, General, Asset Pricing, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professiona...

The Future of Saving
			: The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

The Future of Saving : The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World »

Volume/Issue: 2019/1

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): David Amaglobeli , Hua Chai , Era Dabla-Norris , Kamil Dybczak , Mauricio Soto , and Alexander Tieman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388990.006

ISBN: 9781484388990

Keywords: Aging, Savings, Demographic transition, Old age pensions, Aging; Demographics; Saving; Pension Spending, Demographics, Saving, Pension Spending, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, General

This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables....

Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis

Effective Trade Costs and the Current Account: An Empirical Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2019/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz , Nan Li , and Hongrui Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392171.001

ISBN: 9781484392171

Keywords: Global imbalances, Current account, trade costs, structural gravity model, comparative advantage, trade restrictiveness, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics

A view receiving increased support is that the height of trade costs in prime export sectors has a strong effect on current account balances: countries specializing in sectors that face relatively high trade costs,...

Fiscal Implications of Government Wage Bill Spending

Fiscal Implications of Government Wage Bill Spending »

Volume/Issue: 2019/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kamil Dybczak , and Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392157.001

ISBN: 9781484392157

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Public employment, Public Wages, Government Expenditure, General

This paper discusses the short- and medium-term fiscal implications of government wage bill spending. Working with a sample of 137 advanced, emerging and low-income countries, we use a panel VAR approach to identif...

Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?

Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): R. Gelos , Tommaso Mancini Griffoli , Machiko Narita , Federico Grinberg , Umang Rawat , and Shujaat Khan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393208.001

ISBN: 9781484393208

Keywords: Monetary policy, Consumption, transmission, households, real estate, leverage, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Has monetary policy in advanced economies been less effective since the global financial crisis because of deteriorating household balance sheets? This paper examines the question using household data from the Unit...

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs

Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs »

Volume/Issue: 2019/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , Swarnali Ahmed Hannan , Jonathan Ostry , and Andrew Rose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390061.001

ISBN: 9781484390061

Keywords: Productivity, Unemployment, Output, protection, inequality, exchange rate, trade balance, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

We study the macroeconomic consequences of tariffs. We estimate impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. We find that tariff increases...

Public Debt Through the Ages

Public Debt Through the Ages »

Volume/Issue: 2019/6

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Barry Eichengreen , Asmaa ElGanainy , Rui Pedro Esteves , and Kris James Mitchener

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392898.001

ISBN: 9781484392898

Keywords: Soveriegn Debt, Debt History, Soveriegn Debt Crises, Sovereign Debt Composition, General, International, or Comparative

We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios rose explosively as a result of wars, d...

Revenue Implications of Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxation

Revenue Implications of Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxation »

Volume/Issue: 2019/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shafik Hebous , Alexander Klemm , and Saila Stausholm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392935.001

ISBN: 9781484392935

Keywords: Tax revenue, Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax, Border Adjustment Tax, Business Taxes and Subsidies, International Fiscal Issues

We estimate the revenue implications of a Destination Based Cash Flow Tax (DBCFT) for 80 countries. On a global average, DBCFT revenues under unchanged tax rates would remain similar to the existing corporate incom...

A Governance Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa?

A Governance Dividend for Sub-Saharan Africa? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amine Hammadi , Marshall Mills , Nelson Sobrinho , Vimal Thakoor , and Ricardo Velloso

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354872.001

ISBN: 9781484354872

Keywords: Zambia, Zimbabwe, Congo, Democratic Republic of the, Congo, Republic of, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) tend to lag those in most other regions in terms of governance and perceptions of corruption. Weak governance undermines economic performance through various channels, includin...

Bank Profitability and Financial Stability

Bank Profitability and Financial Stability »

Volume/Issue: 2019/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): TengTeng Xu , Kun Hu , and Udaibir Das

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390078.001

ISBN: 9781484390078

Keywords: Systemic risk, Finanical stability, bank profitability, non-interest income, business model, panel regression, General, Models with Panel Data

We analyze how bank profitability impacts financial stability from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We first develop a theoretical model of the relationship between bank profitability and financial stab...

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries

Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bernardin Akitoby , Jiro Honda , and Hiroaki Miyamoto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390054.001

ISBN: 9781484390054

Keywords: Italy, Japan, Germany, Europe, Canada, Asia and Pacific, France, United Kingdom, United States, Western Hemisphere

Would countercyclical fiscal policy during recessions improve or worsen the gender employment gap? We give an answer to this question by exploring the state-dependent impact of fiscal spending shocks on employment...

Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?

Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam , and Kangni Kpodar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484383070.001

ISBN: 9781484383070

Keywords: Economic development, Political economy, Citizenship laws, legal origin, International Migration

This paper analyzes the impact of citizenship laws on economic development. We first document the evolution of citizenship laws around the world, highlighting the main features of jus soli, jus sanguinis as well as...

The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs

The Impact of Bailouts on the Probability of Sovereign Debt Crises: Evidence from IMF-Supported Programs »

Volume/Issue: 2019/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hippolyte Balima , and Amadou Sy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393413.001

ISBN: 9781484393413

Keywords: Sovereign debt defaults, IMF-supported programs, entropy balancing, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy...

Age of Ingenuity
			: Re-imagining 21st Century International Cooperation

Age of Ingenuity : Re-imagining 21st Century International Cooperation »

Series: IMF Speeches

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388860.076

ISBN: 9781484388860

Keywords: Taxes, Trade, Climate changes, multilateralism; trade; taxes; climate, innovation

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde delivered this address at the Library of Congress as part of the Library's Henry A. Kissinger Lecture Series in Washington, D.C. on December 4, 2018....

IMF Research Perspectives, Fall-Winter 2018

IMF Research Perspectives, Fall-Winter 2018 »

Volume/Issue: 19/2

Series: IMF Research Bulletin

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/IRBEA2018002.026

ISBN: IRBEA2018002

The Fall-Winter 2018 Research Perspective looks at 'New Opportunities and Future Global Challenges.' The guest editor for this issue is Marika Santoro....

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile »

Volume/Issue: 2018/285

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386934.001

ISBN: 9781484386934

Keywords: Technological innovation, Product markets, Productivity, Western Hemisphere, Labor markets, Chile, Fiscal reforms, Education, Structural Reforms, Economics of Regulation

This study investigates the likely macroeconomic impact of various structural reforms that align the Chilean regulatory framework with international best practices. In this context, the analysis: i) presents a comp...

In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends' Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries

In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends' Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Futoshi Narita , and Rujun Yin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484390177.001

ISBN: 9781484390177

Keywords: International finance, Low-income developing countries, Economic growth, Inflation, Capital flows, Google search volume index, Nighttime lights, Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends' data to narrow such information gaps and finds...

Drivers of Spain's Export Performance and the Role of the Labor Market Reforms

Drivers of Spain's Export Performance and the Role of the Labor Market Reforms »

Volume/Issue: 2018/283

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Salas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386941.001

ISBN: 9781484386941

Keywords: Employment, Europe, Export competitiveness, Export growth, Developed countries, Labor market reforms, Spain, Cross-country analysis, Competitiveness, Employment Protection

Spain's export performance strengthened after the global financial crisis, and exports now represent more than a third of GDP. This paper argues that several factors contributed to that achievement: external demand...

IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries

IMF-Supported Programs and Income Convergence in Low-Income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/284

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tejesh Pradhan , and Ali Al-Sadiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386149.001

ISBN: 9781484386149

Keywords: Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Income Convergence, Endogenous Treatment Effects, Matched Treatment Fixed Effects, Low-Income Countries, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems, Globalization: Economic Development, General

Continuing the empirical debate on the effects of IMF-supported programs on participating countries' macroeconomic performance, we focus on the issue of whether these programs accelerate conditional ß-convergence a...

Regional Labor Mobility in Spain

Regional Labor Mobility in Spain »

Volume/Issue: 2018/282

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lucy Qian Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484387764.001

ISBN: 9781484387764

Keywords: Spain, Labor mobility, Europe, interregional migration, regional labor market, gravity, Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

This paper studies the main factors that explain the low regional mobility in Spain, with a view to identifying policy options at the regional and central level to promote labor mobility. The empirical analysis fin...

Can Good Governance Lower Financial Intermediation Costs?

Can Good Governance Lower Financial Intermediation Costs? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/279

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariusz Jarmuzek , and Tonny Lybek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385678.001

ISBN: 9781484385678

Keywords: Corruption, Governance, financial intermediation costs, Relation of Economics to Social Values, Government Policy and Regulation, Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

This paper argues that better governance practices can reduce the costs, risks and uncertainty of financial intermediation. Our sample covers high-, middle- and low-income countries before and after the global fina...

China's High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies

China's High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/277

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Longmei Zhang , Ray Brooks , Ding Ding , Haiyan Ding , Hui He , Jing Lu , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388778.001

ISBN: 9781484388778

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China, People's Republic of, China; Savings; Demographic Changes; Social Safety Net; Inequality; Housing; Projections, China, Savings, Demographic Changes, Social Safety Net, Inequality; Housing, Projections,

China's high national savings rate-one of the highest in the world-is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imb...

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence »

Volume/Issue: 2018/280

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudolfs Bems , Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Bertrand Gruss , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388846.001

ISBN: 9781484388846

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Inflation persistence, Anchoring, credibility, terms of trade, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation....

Saudi's Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Saudi's Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2018/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olumuyiwa Adedeji , Sohaib Shahid , and Ling Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388792.001

ISBN: 9781484388792

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Middle East, Growth, Gulf Corporation Council, Spillovers, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Country and Industry Studies of Trade, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to othe...

Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2018/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Ebeke , and Jesse Siminitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388808.001

ISBN: 9781484388808

Keywords: Investment, Euro Area, trade tensions, uncertainty, trade openness, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sens...

Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China

Transport Infrastructure, City Productivity Growth and Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from China »

Volume/Issue: 2018/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yang Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389584.001

ISBN: 9781484389584

Keywords: Transport infrastructure, trade, highway, productivity, China, Incidence

This paper examines the impact of highway expansion on aggregate productivity growth and sectoral reallocation between cities in China. To do so, I construct a unique dataset of bilateral transportation costs betwe...

A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter

A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter »

Volume/Issue: 2018/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388785.001

ISBN: 9781484388785

Keywords: Closed form; Multivariate linear filter; New Keynesian model; Potential output; Natural rate of unemployment; Natural rate of interest, Closed form, Multivariate linear filter, New Keynesian model, Potential output, Natural rate of unemployment, Natural rate of interest, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components...

Designing Sound Fiscal Relations Across Government Levels in Decentralized Countries

Designing Sound Fiscal Relations Across Government Levels in Decentralized Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/271

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robin Boadway , and Luc Eyraud

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484387788.001

ISBN: 9781484387788

Keywords: fiscal federalism, vertical gap, vertical imbalance, fiscal balance, Structure and Scope of Government, General State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue State and Local Budget and Expenditures State and Local Borrowing Intergovernmental Relations All Countries fiscal federalism vertical gap vertical imbalance fiscal balance, General State and Local Taxation, and Revenue State and Local Budget and Expenditures State and Local Borrowing Intergovernmental Relations All Countries fiscal federalism vertical gap vertical imbalance fiscal balance

This paper discusses how decentralized countries can achieve sound fiscal relations between the central government and lower government levels. The concepts of 'vertical gap' and 'vertical balance' provide an analy...

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey

Economic Policy Uncertainty in Turkey »

Volume/Issue: 2018/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484387740.001

ISBN: 9781484387740

Keywords: Turkey, Europe, Policy uncertainty, economic uncertainty, firm-level, sector-level, investment decisions, employment growth, leverage strategies, diff-in-diff estimation

Uncertainty over economic policy plays a key role in economic outcomes. But evidence and quantification for emerging markets are elusive because of measurement and reverse causality issues. In this paper, we constr...

International Knowledge Spillovers

International Knowledge Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2018/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Johannes Eugster , Giang Ho , Florence Jaumotte , and Roberto Piazza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385067.001

ISBN: 9781484385067

Keywords: knowledge spillovers, knowledge barriers, international competition, General

How important is foreign knowledge for domestic innovation outcomes? How is this relation shaped by globalization and the attendant intensification of international competition? Our empirical approach extends the p...

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2018/274

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Samuel Fraiberger , Do Lee , Damien Puy , and Romain Ranciere

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389218.001

ISBN: 9781484389218

Keywords: International financial markets, Capital flows, Asset Pricing, Behavioral Finance, Investor Sentiment, News Media, Natural Language Processing

We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns i...

Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation

Optimal Control of a Global Model of Climate Change with Adaptation and Mitigation »

Volume/Issue: 2018/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manoj Atolia , Prakash Loungani , Helmut Maurer , and Willi Semmler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484387795.001

ISBN: 9781484387795

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Climate Change, Optimal Control, Environmental Economics, Environmental Economics: Government Policy

The Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) has extensively treated the adverse effects of climate change and the appropriate mitigation policy. We extend such a model to include optimal policies for mitigation, adaptati...

Universal Basic Income: Debate and Impact Assessment

Universal Basic Income: Debate and Impact Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maura Francese , and Delphine Prady

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388815.001

ISBN: 9781484388815

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Government expenditures and welfare programs, Universal Basic Income, Inequality, Distributional Impact, Fiscal Poicy, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

This paper discusses the definition and modelling of a universal basic income (UBI). After clarifying the debate about what a UBI is and presenting the arguments in favor and against, an analytical approach for its...

Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending

Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending »

Volume/Issue: 2018/263

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Andrea Presbitero , and Miguel Sarmiento

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386200.001

ISBN: 9781484386200

Keywords: Microfinance, Africa, inancial inclusion, loan expansion program, credit reference bureau, Financial inclusion, Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

Cross-border bank lending is a growing source of external finance in developing countries and could play a key role for infrastructure financing. This paper looks at the role of multilateral development banks (MDBs...

China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets

China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2018/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Maurice Obstfeld

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484377475.001

ISBN: 9781484377475

Keywords: Globalization, Asia and Pacific, China, International financial markets, Bond Market, Market Integration, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, International Business Cycles

A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successfu...

Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account

Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account »

Volume/Issue: 2018/264

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mai Chi Dao , and Callum Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385906.001

ISBN: 9781484385906

Keywords: Pensions, Demographic indicators, Current account balances, Current account surpluses, Capital flows, Aging, Demographics, Current Account Flows, External Imbalances, General

Building on the evolving literature on the topic, this paper reviews the relationship between demographics and long-run capital flows in both theory and in the data. For this purpose, we develop a two region overla...

Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance

Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance »

Volume/Issue: 2018/265

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hua Chai , and Jun Il Kim

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385876.001

ISBN: 9781484385876

Keywords: Capital flows, Foreign exchange, Current account, Aging, Investment, Pensions, Private savings, Public sector savings, Demographic indicators, demographics

This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy ove...

Expenditure Conditionality in IMF-supported Programs

Expenditure Conditionality in IMF-supported Programs »

Volume/Issue: 2018/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sanjeev Gupta , Michela Schena , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389072.001

ISBN: 9781484389072

Keywords: Government expenditures and education, Government expenditures and health, Expenditure conditionality, structural benchmark, quantitative perfomance criteria, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Infrastructures

This paper studies the impact of expenditure conditionality in IMF programs on the composition of public spending. A granular dataset on different government expenditure conditions covering 115 countries for the 1...

Financial Inclusion and Bank Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa

Financial Inclusion and Bank Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Azanaw Mengistu , and Hector Perez Saiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386163.001

ISBN: 9781484386163

Keywords: Accounts, Competition, Financial inclusion, Financial soundness indicators, Balance sheets, Sub-Saharan Africa, financial soundness, debit cards, Business Objectives of the Firm

In this paper we study how competition and financial soundness affect financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We use detailed individual-level survey data, combined with key country-level indicators of ban...

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections »

Volume/Issue: 2018/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386187.001

ISBN: 9781484386187

Keywords: forecast evaluation, bias-variance trade-off, machine learning, Forecasting, GDP growth, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimati...

Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt »

Volume/Issue: 2018/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pietro Dallari , Nicolas End , Fedor Miryugin , Alexander Tieman , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389102.001

ISBN: 9781484389102

Keywords: Tax incentives, Tax policy, Corporate debt, Corporate income taxes, Leverage, Debt Bias, Corporate Income Tax, SMEs, Micro data, Business Taxes and Subsidies

This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a...

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus »

Volume/Issue: 2018/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karel Musil , Mikhail Pranovich , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385616.001

ISBN: 9781484385616

Keywords: Belarus, Dollarization, Europe, Monetary policy, Quarterly Projection Model, Nominal Wages, Fiscal Impulse, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of...

The Intensive Margin in Trade

The Intensive Margin in Trade »

Volume/Issue: 2018/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Fernandes , Peter Klenow , Sergii Meleshchuk , Martha Denisse Pierola , and Andres Rodriguez-Clare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386170.001

ISBN: 9781484386170

Keywords: Welfare, Intensive margin of trade, extensive margin of trade, productivity distribution, trade costs, Pareto, General, Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

The Melitz model highlights the importance of the extensive margin (the number of firms exporting) for trade flows. Using the World Bank's Exporter Dynamics Database (EDD) featuring firm-level exports from 50 count...

The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China

The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China »

Volume/Issue: 2018/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385371.001

ISBN: 9781484385371

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China, People's Republic of, Central banks and their policies, China housing market, residential investment, rebalancing, Bayesian Analysis, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China's residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were...

The Micro Impact of Macroprudential Policies: Firm-Level Evidence

The Micro Impact of Macroprudential Policies: Firm-Level Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2018/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Meghana Ayyagari , Thorsten Beck , and Maria Martinez Peria

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385654.001

ISBN: 9781484385654

Keywords: Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Central banks and their policies, Balance sheets, Public enterprises, financial development; macroprudential policies; firm financing, financial development, macroprudential policies, firm financing, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation

Combining balance sheet data on 900,000 firms from 48 countries with information on the adoption of macroprudential policies during 2003-2011, we find that these policies are associated with lower credit growth. Th...

The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities

The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities »

Volume/Issue: 2018/266

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jose Saboin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385388.001

ISBN: 9781484385388

Keywords: Hyperinflation, Institutions, Social Infrastructure, Economic Freedoms, Multilateral Assistance, Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy, International Lending and Debt Problems, General

Using a database of up to 62 variables for 196 countries over 57 years, a hyperinflation cycle has been characterized to propose a broader setting of stylized facts. Beyond the usual facts, the findings in this pap...

The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends

The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends »

Volume/Issue: 2018/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mai Chi Dao , and Chiara Maggi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385395.001

ISBN: 9781484385395

Keywords: Cash holding, R&;D, corporate saving, current account surplus, R&;amp;#x0026;D, Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies

Using cross-country national accounts and firm-level data, we document a broad-based trend in rising gross saving and net lending of non-financial corporates across major industrialized countries over the last two...

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area

The Scarcity Effect of Quantitative Easing on Repo Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2018/258

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): William Arrata , Benoit Nguyen , Imene Rahmouni-Rousseau , and Miklos Vari

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386910.001

ISBN: 9781484386910

Keywords: Interest rates, Monetary policy, Money markets, Central banks and their policies, Central banks and their policies, Repurchase agreements, Assets, Specialness, repo market, asset purchases

Most short-term interest rates in the Euro area are below the European Central Bank deposit facility rate, the rate at which the central bank remunerates banks' excess reserves. This unexpected development coincide...

Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster?

Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruchir Agarwal , and Patrick Gaule

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385869.001

ISBN: 9781484385869

Keywords: lent, knowledge frontier, innovation, IMO, universities, talent, Incidence

The advancement of the knowledge frontier is crucial for technological innovation and human progress. Using novel data from the setting of mathematics, this paper establishes two results. First, we document that in...

Regional Labor Mobility in Finland

Regional Labor Mobility in Finland »

Volume/Issue: 2018/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385685.001

ISBN: 9781484385685

Keywords: Unemployment, Wage bargaining, Labor force participation, Migrations, Europe, Finland, Labor mobility, regional labor mobility, gravity model, General

This paper analyzes regional labor mobility in Finland using two complementary empirical approaches: a VAR proposed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a gravity model. The results point to a relatively limited region...

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis

Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis »

Volume/Issue: 2018/251

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Correa-Caro , Leandro Medina , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Bennett Sutton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380659.001

ISBN: 9781484380659

Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, Global Financial Crisis, Worldscope, Firm Profitabilit, Firm Profitability, Models with Panel Data, Deficit

Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter's Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structura...

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions

House Price Synchronicity, Banking Integration, and Global Financial Conditions »

Volume/Issue: 2018/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , Jane Dokko , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385692.001

ISBN: 9781484385692

Keywords: Housing market; global liquidity; financial conditions; banking intergration; business cycles, Housing market, global liquidity, financial conditions, banking intergration, business cycles, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Business Cycles

We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in re...

Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?

Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mariana Colacelli , and Emilio Fernández Corugedo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484384732.001

ISBN: 9781484384732

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Japan, Government expenditures and health, Structural reforms, demographics, OLG models, Forecasting and Simulation, General, General, Contracts: Specific Human Capital

Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implem...

On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan

On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan »

Volume/Issue: 2018/249

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ellen McGrattan , Kazuaki Miyachi , and Adrian Peralta-Alva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484384718.001

ISBN: 9781484384718

Keywords: Retirement, Government expenditures and health, Taxation, Aging, Asia and Pacific, Health care, Japan, Social Security and Public Pensions, Health Insurance, Public and Private

Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a...

Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK

Brexit Referendum and Business Investment in the UK »

Volume/Issue: 2018/247

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lucyna Gornicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382011.001

ISBN: 9781484382011

Keywords: Europe, United Kingdom, Brexit referendum, firm investment, uncertainty, trade costs, General, Country and Industry Studies of Trade

In this paper I apply firm-level analysis to examine how the Brexit process has affected business investment in the UK. An interaction term of potential trade costs after exiting the EU and a measure of firms' part...

Personal Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications

Personal Income Tax Progressivity: Trends and Implications »

Volume/Issue: 2018/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Claudia Gerber , Alexander Klemm , Li Liu , and Victor Mylonas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484383087.001

ISBN: 9781484383087

Keywords: Progressive taxation, Personal income taxes, Tax systems, Income inequality, Economic growth, Progressivity; Growth; Personal Income Tax; Tax Wedge; Inequality, Progressivity, Growth, Personal Income Tax, Tax Wedge

This paper discusses how the structure of the tax system affects its progressivity. It suggests a measure of progressive capacity of tax systems, based on the Kakwani index, but independent of pre-tax income distri...

China's Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations

China's Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations »

Volume/Issue: 2018/244

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael McMahon , Alfred Schipke , and Xiang Li

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385647.001

ISBN: 9781484385647

Keywords: Financial markets, Central banks and their policies, Asia and Pacific, Monetary policy, People’;s Bank of China, Communication, Central Bank, Monetary Policy Transmission, People&;amp;#x2019;s Bank of China, Monetary Policy (Targets

Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its...

Populism and Civil Society

Populism and Civil Society »

Volume/Issue: 2018/245

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tito Boeri , Prachi Mishra , Chris Papageorgiou , and Antonio Spilimbergo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382356.001

ISBN: 9781484382356

Keywords: Political economy, Voting, Europe, Democracy, populist parties, associations, Latin America

Populists claim to be the only legitimate representative of the people. Does it mean that there is no space for civil society? The issue is important because since Tocqueville (1835), associations and civil society...

Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy

Equilibrium Yield Curve, the Phillips Curve, and Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/242

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitsuru Katagiri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382370.001

ISBN: 9781484382370

Keywords: Term premiums, Phillips curve, Low-for-long, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Asset Pricing

Upward sloping yield curves are hard to reconcile with the positive association between income and inflation (the Phillips curve) in consumption-based asset pricing models. Using US and UK data, this paper shows in...

A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity

A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity »

Volume/Issue: 2018/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shafik Hebous , and Alexander Klemm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381908.001

ISBN: 9781484381908

Keywords: Destination-Based Taxation, ACE, ACC, Business Taxes and Subsidies

Following renewed academic and policy interest in the destination-based principle for taxing profits-particularly through a destination-based cash flow tax (DBCFT)-this paper studies other forms of efficient destin...

Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence

Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence »

Volume/Issue: 2018/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381571.001

ISBN: 9781484381571

Keywords: Macrofinancial analysis; World economy; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Macrofinancial analysis, World economy, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

This paper investigates the sources of macrofinancial fluctuations and turbulence within the framework of an approximate linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, augmented with stru...

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2018/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudolfs Bems , Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , Bertrand Gruss , and Weicheng Lian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381595.001

ISBN: 9781484381595

Keywords: Globalization, Inflation, Emerging markets, Inflation expectations, Central banks and their policies, Phillips Curve, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this related to a global disinflation environment triggered by China's...

The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico »

Volume/Issue: 2018/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rodrigo Mariscal , and Alejandro Werner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381632.001

ISBN: 9781484381632

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Mexico, Value-Added Tax, Tax Incidence, Economic Welfare, Inflation Pass-Through, Difference-in-differences, Incidence, Models with Panel Data

In this paper we analyze the incidence of the VAT and its effects on the income distribution. To identify these effects, we rely on two tax reforms undertaken in Mexico that increased the VAT rate for a group of ci...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe
			: Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe : Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375402.086

ISBN: 9781484375402

Keywords: Europe, Regional Economic Outlook, economic outlook, financial conditions, fiscal policy, monetary policy, emerging Europe, advanced Europe

Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engin...

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Coordination Among Multiple Equilibria

Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Coordination Among Multiple Equilibria »

Volume/Issue: 2018/235

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380642.001

ISBN: 9781484380642

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Macroprudential Policy, Financial stability, Multiple objectives, Leaning, Noncooperative Games, Government Policy and Regulation

The notion of a tradeoff between output and financial stabilization is based on monetary-macroprudential models with unique equilibria. Using a game theory setup, this paper shows that multiple equilibria lead to q...

Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset

Tax Revenue Mobilization Episodes in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries: Lessons from a New Dataset »

Volume/Issue: 2018/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bernardin Akitoby , Anja Baum , Clay Hackney , Olamide Harrison , Keyra Primus , and Veronique Salins

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361535.001

ISBN: 9781484361535

Keywords: Tax policy, Revenue administration, tax revenue mobilization, General

How do countries mobilize large tax revenue-defined as an average increase in the tax-to-GDP ratio of 0.5 percent per year over three years or more? To answer this question, we build a novel dataset covering 55 epi...

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning

An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning »

Volume/Issue: 2018/230

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jin-Kyu Jung , Manasa Patnam , and Anna Ter-Martirosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380635.001

ISBN: 9781484380635

Keywords: Machine learning, forecasts, forecast errors, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Neural Networks and Related Topics

Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output var...

Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti

Macro-Fiscal Implications of Climate Change: The Case of Djibouti »

Volume/Issue: 2018/233

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380819.001

ISBN: 9781484380819

Keywords: Middle East, Inclusive growth, Djibouti, climate change, climate warming, General, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

This paper reviews the significant macro-fiscal challenges posed by climate change in Djibouti and the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies. The paper concludes that Djibouti is susceptible to climate change...

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains »

Volume/Issue: 2018/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Maximiliano Appendino , Jelle Barkema , and Diego Cerdeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337134.001

ISBN: 9781484337134

Keywords: Economic integration, Global value chains, International competitiveness, Trade openness, Trade Forecasting and Simulation, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

All common real effective exchange rate indexes assume trade is only in final goods, despite the growing presence of global supply chains. Extending effective exchange rate indexes to include such intermediate good...

The Labor Market Integration of Migrants in Europe: New Evidence from Micro Data

The Labor Market Integration of Migrants in Europe: New Evidence from Micro Data »

Volume/Issue: 2018/232

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giang Ho , and Rima Turk-Ariss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381168.001

ISBN: 9781484381168

Keywords: International migration; labor market integration; employment; micro data, International migration, labor market integration, employment, micro data, General, Demographic Trends and Forecasts

This paper presents novel empirical evidence on the labor market integration of migrants across Europe. It investigates how successfully migrants integrate in 13 European countries by applying a unified framework t...

The Limits of Meritocracy

The Limits of Meritocracy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/231

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): John Morgan , Justin Tumlinson , and Felix Vardy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381175.001

ISBN: 9781484381175

Keywords: Meritocracy, Efficiency, Level Playing Field, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, Market Design, Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, Organization of Production

We show that too much meritocracy, modeled as accuracy of performance ranking in contests, can be a bad thing: in contests with homogeneous agents, it reduces output and is Pareto inefficient. In contests with suff...

The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default

The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default »

Volume/Issue: 2018/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dermot Turing , and Manmohan Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381922.001

ISBN: 9781484381922

Keywords: Liquidity, Default, International financial markets, HQLA, clearing, derivatives, CCPs, liquidity coverage ratio, VMGH, initial margin

Changes to the regulatory system introduced after the financial crisis include not only mandatory clearing of OTC derivatives at central counterparties and margining of uncleared derivatives, but also prudential me...

The Cost and Benefits of Tax Treaties with Investment Hubs: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa

The Cost and Benefits of Tax Treaties with Investment Hubs: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , and Jan Loeprick

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378007.001

ISBN: 9781484378007

Keywords: Mauritius, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tax evasion, Tax Treaty Policy, Double Tax Treaties, Domestic Resource Mobilization, Business Taxes and Subsidies, Firm

This paper investigates the costs and benefits of concluding double tax treaties with investment hubs. Based on a sample of 41 African economies from 1985-2015, the results suggest that signing treaties with inves...

How to Control the Fiscal Costs of Public-Private Partnerships

How to Control the Fiscal Costs of Public-Private Partnerships »

Volume: 18

Series: IMF How To Notes

Author(s): Timothy Irwin , Samah Mazraani , and Sandeep Saxena

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380925.061

ISBN: 9781484380925

Keywords: Fiscal risk, Fiscal sustainability, Fiscal policy, Fiscal management, Risk management, Fiscal rules, Accounting for Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), Public services, Public-private partnership, Fiscal rules and institutions

This note discusses what finance ministries can do to ensure that public-private partnerships (PPPs) are used wisely. By inviting private participation in infrastructure development and service provision, PPPs can...

Rightsizing Brazil's Public-Sector Wage Bill

Rightsizing Brazil's Public-Sector Wage Bill »

Volume/Issue: 2018/225

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Izabela Karpowicz , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374924.001

ISBN: 9781484374924

Keywords: Brazil, Wage bill, Fiscal rules, Employee compensation, Western Hemisphere, public spending, General, State and Local Government: Other Expenditure Categories

Brazil's public-sector wage bill is comparatively high. It grows inertially and competes with other spending. Rightsizing the wage bill could stimulate administrative efficiency and bring more equity into a system...

Structural Reform Priorities for Brazil

Structural Reform Priorities for Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2018/224

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Biljanovska , and Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484376331.001

ISBN: 9781484376331

Keywords: Productivity, Product markets, Banking sector, Fiscal reforms, Labor market reforms, Structural reforms, Brazil, political economy

Over the last few decades, Brazil has experienced relatively weak economic growth due to stagnant productivity. To boost productivity, Brazil should embark on an ambitious structural reform process. In doing so, it...

Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies

Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/999

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hamid Tabarraei , Hamed Ghiaie , and Asghar Shahmoradi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484377727.001

ISBN: 9781484377727

Keywords: Banking, Financial crises, Central banks and their policies, Oil-exporting countries, Oil-Reserve Fund, DSGE, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General

The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of a...

Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom

Sectoral Booms and Misallocation of Managerial Talent: Evidence from the Chinese Real Estate Boom »

Volume/Issue: 2018/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yu Shi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378465.002

ISBN: 9781484378465

Keywords: Production, Asia and Pacific, Real estate boom, misallocation, aggregate productivity, Institutions and the Macroeconomy, Neoclassical, General, One, Two

This paper identifies a new mechanism leading to inefficiency in capital reallocation at the extensive margin when an economy experiences a sectoral boom. I argue that imperfections in the financial market and capi...

An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank

An Index for Transparency for Inflation-Targeting Central Banks: Application to the Czech National Bank »

Volume/Issue: 2018/210

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rania Al-Mashat , Ales Bulir , N. Nergiz Dinçer , Tibor Hlédik , Tomás Holub , Asya Kostanyan , Douglas Laxton , Armen Nurbekyan , Rafael Portillo , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374832.001

ISBN: 9781484374832

Keywords: Central banks, Czech Republic, Europe, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Transparency, General

This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most transparent inflation-ta...

China's Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices

China's Capacity Reduction Reform and Its Impact on Producer Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2018/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Linxi Chen , Ding Ding , and Rui Mano

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375914.001

ISBN: 9781484375914

Keywords: China, Asia and Pacific, capacity reduction, supply-side structural reforms, producer price index, Time-Series Models, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

In late 2015, the Chinese authorities launched a policy to reduce capacity in the coal and steel industries under the wider effort of Supply-Side Structural Reforms. Around the same time, producer price inflation i...

China's Local Government Bond Market

China's Local Government Bond Market »

Volume/Issue: 2018/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): W. Raphael Lam , and Jingsen Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378410.001

ISBN: 9781484378410

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China; Local Government; Subnational fiscal balance; bond market, China, Local Government, Subnational fiscal balance, bond market, Other, General, State and Local Borrowing, Government Policy and Regulation

Local governments play a significant role in China's public finance and fiscal operations. The size of local government debt has grown rapidly over the past years, exceeding the stock of sovereign debt in China. Ho...

Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures

Cross-border Banking and the Circumvention of Macroprudential and Capital Control Measures »

Volume/Issue: 2018/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Haonan Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484376362.001

ISBN: 9781484378328

Keywords: International financial markets, Capital controls, Cross-Border Banking Flows, Macroprudential Policies, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

We analyze the joint impact of macroprudential and capital control measures on cross-border banking flows, while controlling for multidimensional aspects in lender-and-borrower-relationships (e.g., distance, cultur...

Financial Access Under the Microscope

Financial Access Under the Microscope »

Volume/Issue: 2018/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sumit Agarwal , Thomas Kigabo , Camelia Minoiu , Andrea Presbitero , and Andre Silva

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484376362.001

ISBN: 9781484376362

Keywords: Microfinance, Africa, Financial inclusion, loan expansion program, credit reference bureau, Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

We examine the impact of a large-scale microcredit expansion program on financial access and the transition of previously unbanked borrowers to commercial banks. Using administrative micro-data covering the univers...

House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach

House Price Synchronization and Financial Openness: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/209

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mitsuru Katagiri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378243.001

ISBN: 9781484378243

Keywords: International financial markets, Housing price, Dynamic factor model, Financial openness, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

This paper investigates the developments in house price synchronization across countries by a dynamic factor model using a country- and city-level dataset, and examines what drives the synchronization. The empirica...

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations »

Volume/Issue: 2018/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , and Frederico Lima

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484377451.001

ISBN: 9781484377451

Keywords: tax base, tax rate, narrative dataset, tax multipliers, Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies, Business Taxes and Subsidies, General, International, or Comparative

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the e...