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Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean

Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2019/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Tianle Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511702.001

ISBN: 9781513511702

Keywords: Real effective exchange rates, Central bank independence, Central bank autonomy, Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy, Macroeconomic trilemma, monetary independence, exchange rate flexibility, inflation, WP

Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study ex...

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada

How to Improve Inflation Forecasting in Canada »

Volume/Issue: 2019/190

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 September 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509396.001

ISBN: 9781513509396

Keywords: Real interest rates, Financial crises, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, inflation targeting, real-time data, forecast errors, WP

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvemen...

The Negative Mean Output Gap

The Negative Mean Output Gap »

Volume/Issue: 2019/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shekhar Aiyar , and Simon Voigts

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511740.001

ISBN: 9781513511740

Keywords: Accounting systems, Bank rates, Bond yields, Business cycles, Capital, Capital stocks, Central banking, Central banks, Consumption, Cost of capital

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns...

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2019/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319294.001

ISBN: 9781498319294

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor markets, Real wages, Labor costs, Labor productivity, wages, spillovers, Phillips curve, non-employment, European Union

Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage diverge...

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines »

Volume/Issue: 2019/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Si Guo , Philippe Karam , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319324.001

ISBN: 9781498319324

Keywords: Real interest rates, Economic theory, Development, Price controls, Monetary policy, inflation, the Philippines, output gap, BSP, inflation rate

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence...

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2019/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hidetaka Nishizawa , Scott Roger , and Huan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320801.001

ISBN: 9781498320801

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Accounting, Accounting standards, Agriculture, Aid flows, Balance of payments, Bank deposits, Bank financing, Banks, Bonds

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spend...

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect

Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia: The Monsoon Effect »

Volume/Issue: 2019/147

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321761.001

ISBN: 9781498321761

Keywords: Nominal effective exchange rate, Inflation targeting, Inflation rates, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy, Inflation, spillovers, co-movement, weather, core inflation

Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks-a result which the pa...

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru

Informality and the Challenge of Pension Adequacy: Outlook and Reform Options for Peru »

Volume/Issue: 2019/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Freudenberg , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 July 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318525.001

ISBN: 9781498318525

Keywords: Pension funds, Social safety nets, Wage indexation, Labor market reforms, Minimum wages, Pension System, Contribution Density, Replacement Rates, Peru, replacement rate

Past reforms have put the Peruvian pension system on a largely fiscally sustainable path, but the system faces important challenges in providing adequate pension levels for a large share of the population. Using ad...

Canada
			: Selected Issues

Canada : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2019/176

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498321037.002

ISBN: 9781498321037

Keywords: Interest rates, Monetary policy, Interest rate increases, Financial crises, Real interest rates, output gap, core inflation, trade cost, internal trade barrier, internal trade

Selected Issues...

Botswana
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Price Statistics Mission

Botswana : Technical Assistance Report-Report on Price Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2019/158

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 June 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498319065.002

ISBN: 9781498319065

Keywords: Price indexes, Gross domestic product, Price structures, Economic growth, Consumption, price data, PPI, CPI, rebasing, national account

A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by AFRITAC South (AFS)1 during February 4-15, 2019 in response to a request from Statistics Botswana (SB) to assist with updating the consumer price index (CPI) and...

Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock

Gains from Anchoring Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Taper Tantrum Shock »

Volume/Issue: 2019/75

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rudolfs Bems , Francesca Caselli , Francesco Grigoli , and Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498302777.001

ISBN: 9781498302777

Keywords: Exchange rate pass-through, Consumer price indexes, Inflation expectations, Capital outflows, Monetary policy, Taper Tantrum, Exchange Rate Pass-Through., inflation expectation, tantrum, pass-through

Many argue that improvements in monetary policy frameworks in emerging market economies over the past few decades, have made them more resilient to external shocks. This paper exploits the May 2013 taper tantrum in...

Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises »

Volume/Issue: 2019/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Luna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484397022.001

ISBN: 9781484397022

Keywords: Central banks, Central banking, Monetary policy instruments, Monetary policy, Monetary authorities, Taylor Rule;learning;computability;computable economics;rational expectations;learnability;policy rule;central bank;time function

Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and 'learned' anew by all stakeholde...

Are Non-Euro Area EU Countries Importing Low Inflation from the Euro Area?

Are Non-Euro Area EU Countries Importing Low Inflation from the Euro Area? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Plamen Iossifov , and Jiri Podpiera

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484300527.001

ISBN: 9781484300527

Keywords: monetary policy, inflationary expectations, monetary fund

The synchronized disinflation across Europe since end-2011 raises the question of whether non-euro area EU countries are affected by the undershooting of the euro area inflation target. To shed light on this issue,...

A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers
			: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area

A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers : The Case of Poland and the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2014/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498381819.001

ISBN: 9781498381819

Keywords: semi-structural model, inflation, monetary policy, inflation target, real interest rate, national bank, General,

This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillove...

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC)
			: Selected Issues

Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/305

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616354824.002

ISBN: 9781616354824

Keywords: inflation, central bank

...

Food Inflation in India
			: The Role for Monetary Policy

Food Inflation in India : The Role for Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Ding Ding , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392096.001

ISBN: 9781484392096

Keywords: food inflation, monetary fund, inflation dynamics, real interest rate, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated red...

Guatemala
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Guatemala : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/287

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498338127.002

ISBN: 9781498338127

Keywords: inflation, current account, external debt, central bank

KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala's economy has performed solidly since the 2008-09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However, risks to...

Trinidad and Tobago
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Trinidad and Tobago : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/271

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498358804.002

ISBN: 9781498358804

Keywords: foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate, monetary policy, foreign exchange market

KEY ISSUES The economy is embarking on sustainable growth, but the main challenge will be to boost long-run growth by structural reforms and reorienting fiscal policy. Supply-side slowdowns in the energy sector a...

Czech Republic
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Czech Republic : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/256

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393383.002

ISBN: 9781484393383

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, central bank, foreign exchange, national bank

Growth is gaining momentum, led by strong external demand while domestic demand is also picking up. The central bank's foreign exchange intervention policy has helped stem deflationary pressures but inflation is st...

Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

Sweden
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Sweden : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/261

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498300308.002

ISBN: 9781498300308

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, financial stability, low inflation, monetary fund

Sweden's economy has re-gained speed, following supportive macroeconomic policies and strong household demand. Employment has been rising, but the labor force expanded even more, resulting in higher unemployment mo...

Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda

Introducing a Semi-Structural Macroeconomic Model for Rwanda »

Volume/Issue: 2014/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luisa Charry , Pranav Gupta , and Vimal Thakoor

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498398343.001

ISBN: 9781498398343

Keywords: Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, inflation, real interest rate, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

We develop a simple semistructural model for the Rwandan economy to better understand the monetary policy transmission mechanism. A key feature of the model is the introduction of a modified uncovered interest pari...

Philippines
			: Selected Issues

Philippines : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/246

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484364291.002

ISBN: 9781484364291

Keywords: actual inflation, inflation targeting, monetary fund

...

Is Japan's Population Aging Deflationary?

Is Japan's Population Aging Deflationary? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/139

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Dennis Botman , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 August 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498392129.001

ISBN: 9781498392129

Keywords: Population aging, Abenomics, real interest rate, aggregate demand, central bank, Forecasting and Simulation, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Japan has the most rapidly aging population in the world. This affects growth and fiscal sustainability, but the potential impact on inflation has been studied less. We use the IMF's Global Integrated Fiscal and Mo...

Japan
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Japan : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/236

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498357302.002

ISBN: 9781498357302

Keywords: tax increase, fiscal consolidation, public debt, fiscal sustainability, fiscal adjustment

KEY ISSUES Abenomics is gaining traction, but progress across the three arrows has been uneven and medium-term risks remain substantial. Inflation has risen, a consumption tax increase has been implemented, and...

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2014/048

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498342926.007

ISBN: 9781498342926

Keywords: Bilateral surveillance, Financial risk, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Multilateral surveillance, Spillovers, Surveillance, Asset prices, Assets, Balance sheets

...

Revised Operational Guidance to IMF Staff on the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines

Revised Operational Guidance to IMF Staff on the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines »

Volume/Issue: 2014/047

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498343114.007

ISBN: 9781498343114

Keywords: Collaboration with other international organizations, Collaboration with World Bank, Conditionality, Conditionality guidelines, Fund-supported adjustment programs, Economic conditions, Monetary policy, Economic policy, Interest rate policy, Demand for money

...

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage

Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage »

Volume/Issue: 2014/129

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anton Korinek , and Alp Simsek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498370943.001

ISBN: 9781498370943

Keywords: Leverage, liquidity trap, zero lower bound, aggregate demand externality, efficiency, aggregate demand, inflation, real interest rate, contractionary monetary policy, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

We investigate the role of macroprudential policies in mitigating liquidity traps driven by deleveraging, using a simple Keynesian model. When constrained agents engage in deleveraging, the interest rate needs to f...

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs »

Volume/Issue: 2014/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Furlanetto , Paolo Gelain , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498305327.001

ISBN: 9781498305327

Keywords: Business cycles, Economic growth, Econometric models, Potential output, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Financial Frictions, Optimal Monetary Policy, Output Gap, inflation

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial...

Euro Area Policies
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries

Euro Area Policies : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation With Member Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/198

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498342865.002

ISBN: 9781498342865

Keywords: unemployment, youth unemployment, low inflation

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the euro area recovery is taking hold. Real output has expanded for four consecutive quarters, and financial market sentiment has improved markedly. Complementary p...

Russian Federation
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Russian Federation : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/175

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498309929.002

ISBN: 9781498309929

Keywords: inflation, current account, external debt, central bank, gdp deflator

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Russian Federation's growth slowdown that began in 2011, reflecting structural constraints, continued in 2013 despite accommodative policies. Real GDP growth sl...

Republic of Poland
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Republic of Poland : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/173

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498389938.002

ISBN: 9781498389938

Keywords: public debt, external debt, current account, inflation, short-term debt

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Poland's economy is steadily recovering from the 2012-2013 slowdown on the back of Poland's very strong fundamentals and policies. Real GDP growth moderated to 1.6...

On the use of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Small Open Economies

On the use of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for Small Open Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2014/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): F. Gulcin Ozkan , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498375429.001

ISBN: 9781498375429

Keywords: Financial instability, macroprudential measures, emerging, inflation, foreign currency, monetary fund, General, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance,

We explore optimal monetary and macroprudential policy rules for a small open economy. Delegating 'lean against the wind' squarely to macroprudential policy provides a more robust policy mix to shock uncertainty-(i...

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bernardin Akitoby , Takuji Komatsuzaki , and Ariel Binder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498369954.001

ISBN: 9781498369954

Keywords: debt drisis, G7, soverign debt, average inflation, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, increase in inflation, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-...

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages »

Volume/Issue: 2014/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ricardo Cervantes , Phakawa Jeasakul , Joseph Maloney , and Li Lian Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498366397.001

ISBN: 9781498366397

Keywords: Bilateral, Country Financial Stability Map, Global Financial Stability Map, Ms. Muffet, macro-financial risks and conditions, multilateral, financial system, inflation, financial sector, monetary policy

The global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding macro-financial developments and spillovers in an increasingly interconnected and intricate system. At the IMF, staff is focusing on the l...

New Zealand
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

New Zealand : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/158

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498392143.002

ISBN: 9781498392143

Keywords: inflation, terms of trade, current account, external debt

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic expansion in New Zealand is becoming increasingly embedded and broad based, with growth exceeding 3 percent in the second half of 2013. The drivers inc...

The Case for a Long-Run Inflation Target of Four Percent

The Case for a Long-Run Inflation Target of Four Percent »

Volume/Issue: 2014/92

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498395601.001

ISBN: 9781498395601

Keywords: Inflation Target, percent inflation, central bank, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

Many central banks target an inflation rate near two percent. This essay argues that policymakers would do better to target four percent inflation. A four percent target would ease the constraints on monetary polic...

Inflation Reports and Models
			: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498387613.001

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules
			: Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter?

Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules : Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Louis Combes , Xavier Debrun , Alexandru Minea , and Rene Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498322379.001

ISBN: 9781498322379

Keywords: institutional reform sequencing, inflation, inflation rate, terms of trade, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy, Deficit,

The paper examines the joint impact of inflation targeting (IT) and fiscal rules (FR) on fiscal behavior and inflation in a broad panel of advanced and developing economies over the period 1990-2009. The main contr...

Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate-The Case of Brazil

Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate-The Case of Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2014/84

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Perrelli , and Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484385210.001

ISBN: 9781484385210

Keywords: Natural rate of interest, small monetary model, inflation targeting regime, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates, central bank, General,

Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimat...

Commercial Property Price Indexes
			: Problems of Sparse Data, Spatial Spillovers, and Weighting

Commercial Property Price Indexes : Problems of Sparse Data, Spatial Spillovers, and Weighting »

Volume/Issue: 2014/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mick Silver , and Brian Graf

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484364543.001

ISBN: 9781484364543

Keywords: Commercial Property Price Indexes, Errors in Measurement, Spatial Econometrics, Spatial Panel Regressions, Index Number Weights, price inflation, monetary fund, inflation rates, General, Index Numbers and Aggregation

Transaction-price residential (house) and commercial property price indexes (RPPIs and CPPIs) have inherent problems of sparse data on heterogeneous properties, more so CPPIs. In an attempt to control for heterogen...

Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean

Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2014/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359679.001

ISBN: 9781484359679

Keywords: Demand Shocks Asymmetric Effects Contractionary and Inflationary Biases, aggregate demand, price inflation, real output, money supply, Asymmetric Effects, Contractionary and Inflationary Biases., Demand Shocks, General,

The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, th...

India's Recent Macroeconomic Performance
			: An Assessment and Way Forward

India's Recent Macroeconomic Performance : An Assessment and Way Forward »

Volume/Issue: 2014/68

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Muneesh Kapur , and Rakesh Mohan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484360675.001

ISBN: 9781484360675

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Growth, Oil Demand, Savings, inflation, financial stability, real interest rate, real interest rates, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The macroeconomic policy response in India after the North Atlantic financial crisis (NAFC) was rapid. The overshooting of the stimulus and its gradual withdrawal sowed seeds for inflationary and BoP pressures and...

Islamic Republic of Iran
			: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation

Islamic Republic of Iran : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/93

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584264.002

ISBN: 9781475584264

Keywords: exchange rate, foreign exchange, official exchange rate, exchange rates, current account balance

This staff report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation on the Islamic Republic of Iran focuses on economic developments and policies. The IMF report had achieved considerable progress in raising per capita income a...

Islamic Republic of Iran
			: Selected Issues

Islamic Republic of Iran : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/94

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475516159.002

ISBN: 9781475516159

Keywords: foreign exchange, cash transfer, high inflation

This Selected Issues paper on Iran focuses on the Targeted Subsidy Reform Law (TSRL). This is the basic law governing the implementation of the subsidy reform in Iran. The TSRL envisaged bringing subsidized prices...

Monetary Policy in the New Normal

Monetary Policy in the New Normal »

Volume/Issue: 2014/3

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Karl Habermeier , Tommaso Mancini Griffoli , and Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475561784.006

ISBN: 9781475561784

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Central bank autonomy, Central bank independence, Central banks, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Macroprudential Policy, inflation, central bank, monetary fund

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of tu...

Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison

Inflation Persistence in Brazil - A Cross Country Comparison »

Volume/Issue: 2014/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475585230.001

ISBN: 9781475585230

Keywords: actual inflation, inflation rate

Inflation persistence is sometimes defined as the tendency for price shocks to push the inflation rate away from its steady state-including an inflation target-for a prolonged period. Persistence is important becau...

Myanmar
			: Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program

Myanmar : Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program »

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475514674.002

ISBN: 9781475514674

Keywords: foreign exchange, exchange rate, inflation, macroeconomic stability

This paper reviews Myanmar's Second Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program IMF staff report. The IMF report highlights that the authorities are pursuing a wide range of economic reform program against a backgroun...

Disentangling India's Investment Slowdown

Disentangling India's Investment Slowdown »

Volume/Issue: 2014/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475531183.001

ISBN: 9781475531183

Keywords: Investments, Policy Uncertainty, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates, monetary policy, monetary fund, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as busin...

Angola
			: Second Post-Program Monitoring

Angola : Second Post-Program Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2014/81

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484340684.002

ISBN: 9781484340684

Keywords: oil, foreign currency, inflation, financial stability

This paper reviews Angola's Second Post-Program Monitoring for different economic developments and policies. The IMF report highlights that Angola has returned to a path of solid economic growth, with single-digit...

Estimating Sri Lanka's Potential Output

Estimating Sri Lanka's Potential Output »

Volume/Issue: 2014/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , John Nelmes , Roshan Perera , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 March 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484333938.001

ISBN: 9781484333938

Keywords: Output Gap, Multivariate Filter, inflation, unemployment rate, equilibrium unemployment, equilibrium unemployment rate, Time-Series Models, Forecasting and Other Model Applications,

In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka's potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusiv...

India
			: Selected Issues

India : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/58

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484309001.002

ISBN: 9781484309001

Keywords: Economic growth, Current account deficits, Corporate sector, Monetary policy, India, Inflation, Selected issues, Spillovers, Poverty reduction, Public investment

This Selected Issues paper uncovers the factors behind the unprecedented widening of India's current account deficit in terms of the sectoral savings-investment balance. The unprecedented widening of India's curren...

India
			: Staff Report for 2014 Article IV Consultation

India : Staff Report for 2014 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/57

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484308257.002

ISBN: 9781484308257

Keywords: Economic indicators, Fiscal consolidation, Banking sector, Article IV consultation reports, Current account deficits, Debt sustainability analysis, Economic growth, Press releases, Staff Reports, India

This 2014 Article IV consultation highlights an expected slowdown of growth in India, to 4.6 percent this fiscal year, the lowest in a decade, reflecting global developments and domestic supply constraints. Headlin...

Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2014/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Pablo Medina Guzman , and Claudio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306390.001

ISBN: 9781484306390

Keywords: imperfect credibility, inflation, central bank, monetary policy transparency, monetary authority, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), General,

In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We...

Israel
			: Selected Issues

Israel : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/48

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475590142.002

ISBN: 9781475590142

Keywords: Israel, mortgage, mortgages, inflation, price inflation, housing loans

This Selected Issues paper reviews the housing market in Israel. Property prices in Israel are currently about 25 percent above their equilibrium value, owing largely to low mortgage interest rates and supply short...

Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows

Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows »

Volume/Issue: 2014/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Pablo Medina Guzman , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484302873.001

ISBN: 9781484302873

Keywords: Welfare Analysis, inflation, reserve requirement, inflation targeting, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics, Welfare Analysis.,

We study interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies in a model with nominal and financial frictions. The latter derive from a financial sector that provides credit and liquidity services that lead t...

Algeria
			: Selected Issues

Algeria : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2014/34

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475525984.002

ISBN: 9781475525984

Keywords: Exchange rate depreciation, Algeria, Real effective exchange rates, Selected issues, Monetary policy, Nonoil sector, Monetary transmission mechanism, Fiscal policy, Global competitiveness, Hydrocarbons

This Selected Issues paper examines the options and strategies for designing a fiscal framework for Algeria. It suggests that given the expected lifetime of hydrocarbon reserves, ensuring long-term sustainability a...

Uganda
			: First Review Under The Policy Support Instrument

Uganda : First Review Under The Policy Support Instrument »

Volume/Issue: 2013/375

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475522754.002

ISBN: 9781475522754

Keywords: external debt, domestic debt, current account, public debt, central bank

This paper discusses Uganda's First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Growth has continued to recover from the 2011-2012 low. In an environment of declining inflation-recently halted by a drought-dr...

The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited

The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited »

Volume/Issue: 2013/262

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Michael Kumhof , Douglas Laxton , Dirk Muir , and Susanna Mursula

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484326626.001

ISBN: 9781484326626

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Macroprudential Policy, International Policy Coordination, International Spillovers, Nonlinearities, Fiscal Multipliers, Macrofinancial Linkages, Prudential Regulation, inflation

This paper uses two of the IMF's DSGE models to simulate the benefits of international fiscal and macroprudential policy coordination. The key argument is that these two policies are similar in that, unlike monetar...

Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Adding China to the Global Projection Model »

Volume/Issue: 2013/256

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , Peter Elliott , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Hostland , Douglas Laxton , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484317631.001

ISBN: 9781484317631

Keywords: Global Macroeconomic Model, inflation target, real interest rate, General, Global Outlook, General,

We extend the Global Projection Model (GPM) to include a separate block for China. China plays an important role in shaping global economic outcomes, given its sheer size and trade integration with other key econom...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy
			: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2013/253

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484314609.001

ISBN: 9781484314609

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, domestic demand, terms of trade, current account balance, output growth, world economy, Bayesian Analysis, Models with Panel Data

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model encompasses an approximate linear panel dynami...

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System
			: an Application to Kenya

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System : an Application to Kenya »

Volume/Issue: 2013/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Andrew Berg , Enrico Berkes , Rafael Portillo , Jan Vlcek , and R. Morales

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475538007.001

ISBN: 9781475538007

Keywords: Money Targeting, Low-Income Countries, inflation, money demand, central bank, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Keny...

Singapore
			: Selected Issues

Singapore : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/327

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475520743.002

ISBN: 9781475520743

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy reaction function, monetary fund, real wages

This Selected Issues Paper discusses some observations on Singapore's monetary policy framework. Singapore's monetary policy uses the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) as the instrument in a basket-band-crawl...

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2013/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , Salvatore Dell'Erba , Antonio Moreno , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475513516.001

ISBN: 9781475513516

Keywords: Yield Curve, Global Factors, FAVAR, Affine Term Structure Models, Term Premium, inflation, monetary economics, expansionary monetary policy, monetary policies, Time-Series Models

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more...

Making Monetary Policy More Effective
			: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Making Monetary Policy More Effective : The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo »

Volume/Issue: 2013/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Felix Fischer , Charlotte Lundgren , and Samir Jahjah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475516371.001

ISBN: 9781475516371

Keywords: exchange rate regime, dedollarization, financial deepening., central bank, monetary fund, reserve requirements, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

The paper looks at the challenges of conducting monetary policy in a context of high dollarization of the banking system and weak institutions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The empirical analysis confirm...

Sudan
			: Selected Issues

Sudan : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/320

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305430.002

ISBN: 9781484305430

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, monetary transmission, central bank

This Selected Issues paper examines the monetary policy framework in Sudan, and assesses the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism since the secession of South Sudan. The econometric analysis concludes t...

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland
			: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland : Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure »

Volume/Issue: 2013/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337172.001

ISBN: 9781484337172

Keywords: euro zone, trend-cycle VAR, monetary policy, inflation target, price level, inflation targeting regime, General, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imp...

Russian Federation
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Russian Federation : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/310

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375617.002

ISBN: 9781484375617

Keywords: oil, inflation, gdp deflator, foreign exchange

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP growth in Russia has slowed, amid weak investment and external demand. Yet, the economy remains close to full capacity, with unemployment at historic lows...

Russian Federation
			: Selected Issues

Russian Federation : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/311

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343470.002

ISBN: 9781484343470

Keywords: exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate regime, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, Exchange rate regimes],

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on exchange rate volatility in Russian Federation. Russia has seen an increase in exchange rate volatility during the past...

Botswana
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Botswana : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/296

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343111.002

ISBN: 9781484343111

Keywords: balance of payments, output growth, current account balance, external position, imported goods

This paper discusses 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights slower economic performance and financial risks in Botswana. The output growth is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2013 as strong nonmining sector...

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics
			: A Narrative Approach

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics : A Narrative Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2013/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrew Berg , Luisa Charry , Rafael Portillo , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484398135.001

ISBN: 9781484398135

Keywords: Monetary Transmission Mechanisms, monetary policy, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, monetary transmission, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary tr...

Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area
			: Love at Second Sight?

Inflation and Output Comovement in the Euro Area : Love at Second Sight? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/192

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Jan Bruha , and Serhat Solmaz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475538939.001

ISBN: 9781475538939

Keywords: business cycle, demand shocks, underlying inflation, trimmed mean, price level, measure of inflation, monetary economics, inflation targeting, General,

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that...

Shock from Graying
			: Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Shock from Graying : Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness »

Volume/Issue: 2013/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475598070.001

ISBN: 9781475598070

Keywords: Demographic shift, life-cycle model, monetary policy, inflation, monetary transmission, central bank, inflation targeting, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less...

Sweden
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Sweden : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/276

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 September 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378939.002

ISBN: 9781484378939

Keywords: financial stability, financial sector, financial assets, portfolio investment, financial reform

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights Sweden's economic growth and policies. Sweden's economy appears to be slowing together with its main Nordic and European trading partners. The IMF report discusses that...

Japan
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Japan : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/253

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484389416.002

ISBN: 9781484389416

Keywords: fiscal consolidation, fiscal adjustment, public debt, fiscal stimulus, fiscal risks

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that on the back of new policy framework, growth in Japan accelerated sharply in early 2013. First quarter GDP growth rose to 4.1 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rat...

Czech Republic
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Czech Republic : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/242

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336069.002

ISBN: 9781484336069

Keywords: fiscal stance, public debt, fiscal council

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Czech economy, despite its strong fundamentals, is in the midst of a prolonged recession because of the euro area slump and weak domestic demand. A further slow...

Uganda
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument and Cancellation of Current Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report;Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda

Uganda : 2013 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument and Cancellation of Current Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report;Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda »

Volume/Issue: 2013/215

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382059.002

ISBN: 9781484382059

Keywords: current account, external debt, central bank, current account deficit, external borrowing

This paper focuses on Uganda's 2013 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument and cancellation of Current Policy Support Instru...

Chile
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Chile : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/198

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475549836.002

ISBN: 9781475549836

Keywords: central bank, current account, external debt, current account deficit, debt sustainability

The staff reports for the 2013 Article IV Consultation on the Chile discuss the strong and inclusive growth over the medium term. Technocratic, rules-based, and transparent policy management; monetary policy under...

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2013/155

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rina Bhattacharya

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475554731.001

ISBN: 9781475554731

Keywords: monetary policy effectiveness, emerging Asian economies, nominal interest rate, money supply, price inflation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in...

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets »

Volume/Issue: 2013/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deniz Igan , Alain Kabundi , Francisco Nadal De Simone , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343500.001

ISBN: 9781484343500

Keywords: monetary policy transmission, FAVAR, generalized dynamic factor models, inflation, money stock, transmission of monetary policy, monetary policy transmission mechanism, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded dat...

Ghana
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Ghana : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/187

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484377673.002

ISBN: 9781484377673

Keywords: current account, debt sustainability, current account deficit, debt ratio, public debt

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Ghana continued at a robust pace of 8 percent in 2012 amid rising fiscal and external imbalances. Fiscal pressures came to the fore in a mounting...

Republic of Belarus
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions

Republic of Belarus : 2013 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions »

Volume/Issue: 2013/159

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321331.002

ISBN: 9781484321331

Keywords: external debt, current account, public debt, balance of payments, external financing

The economic model of Belarus is increasingly untenable, resulting in poor policy outcomes. Strong and predictable macroeconomic policies are essential to promote stability. A further reduction in directed and subs...

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel
			: Evidence from the United States

Bank Leverage and Monetary Policy's Risk-Taking Channel : Evidence from the United States »

Volume/Issue: 2013/143

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Luc Laeven , and Gustavo Suarez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 June 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381137.001

ISBN: 9781484381137

Keywords: leverage, risk, bank risk, bank risk taking, tier 1 capital, bank capital, banking, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

We present evidence of a risk-taking channel of monetary policy for the U.S. banking system. We use confidential data on the internal ratings of U.S. banks on loans to businesses over the period 1997 to 2011 from t...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction
			: Applications to Papua New Guinea

The Macroeconomic Effects of Natural Resource Extraction : Applications to Papua New Guinea »

Volume/Issue: 2013/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Suman Basu , Jan Gottschalk , Werner Schule , Nikhil Vellodi , and Susan Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484321379.001

ISBN: 9781484321379

Keywords: natural resource, resource-rich developing countries, DSGE models, monetary policy, central bank, inflation, foreign exchange, money supply, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, Economic Growth of Open Economies

To investigate the effects on Papua New Guinea’s economy of substantial liquified natural gas revenues arriving in 2015, we employ a model to examine the macroeconomic effects of a scalingup of natural resou...

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle »

Volume/Issue: 2013/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484334720.001

ISBN: 9781484334720

Keywords: Phillips Curve, price inflation, inflation dynamics, monetary fund, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation...

World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy

World Food Prices, the Terms of Trade-Real Exchange Rate Nexus, and Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2013/114

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Catão , and Roberto Chang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371565.001

ISBN: 9781484371565

Keywords: Taylor rules, inflation, terms of trade, monetary policy, price elasticity, relative price, General, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

How should monetary policy respond to large fluctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and inte...

Sri Lanka
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring

Sri Lanka : 2013 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring »

Volume/Issue: 2013/120

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320433.002

ISBN: 9781484320433

Keywords: inflation, central bank, foreign exchange

The paper discusses the economic developments and policies in Sri Lanka in recent years. Substantial adjustments in energy prices and operational and financial reforms have helped to improve the performance of stat...

Republic of Estonia
			: 2013 Article IV Consultation

Republic of Estonia : 2013 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/114

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484310380.002

ISBN: 9781484310380

Keywords: unemployment, employment, labor market, unemployment rate, long-term unemployment

Estonia has succeeded in reducing its macroeconomic imbalances and vulnerabilities, but faces the challenge of preserving its hard-earned fiscal and financial stability and enhancing long-term growth prospects. In...

Uruguay
			: 2012 Article IV Consultation

Uruguay : 2012 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/108

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484318089.002

ISBN: 9781484318089

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, foreign currency, foreign exchange, gdp deflator

Uruguay's near-term outlook is positive, but with risks and policy challenges. Medium-term challenges include bolstering the economy's resilience to shocks and fostering productivity growth. Inflation is a priority...

Uruguay
			: Selected Issues

Uruguay : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/109

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484395301.002

ISBN: 9781484395301

Keywords: inflation, monetary policy, inflation targeting, central bank

Uruguay's inflation and inflation expectations exceed the inflation target, and the gap has been widening in recent years. To help bring it to the mid-point of the target, Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) needs to m...

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets
			: Taming the Cycle

Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets : Taming the Cycle »

Volume/Issue: 2013/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Donal McGettigan , Kenji Moriyama , Jean Noah Ndela Ntsama , Francois Painchaud , Haonan Qu , and Chad Steinberg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 May 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484381847.001

ISBN: 9781484381847

Keywords: Countercyclical Policy, inflation, real interest rates, real interest rate, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

In contrast to advanced markets (AMs), procyclical monetary policy has been a problem for emerging markets (EMs), with macroeconomic policies amplifying economic upswings and deepening downturns. The stark differen...

Rethinking Macro Policy II
			: Getting Granular

Rethinking Macro Policy II : Getting Granular »

Volume/Issue: 2013/3

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Olivier Blanchard , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , and Paolo Mauro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484363478.006

ISBN: 9781484363478

Keywords: Financial stability, Fiscal consolidation, Central banks and their policies, Central banks, Capital flows, Public debt, Stabilization measures, Fiscal policy, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy

This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associ...

GPM6
			: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions

GPM6 : The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2013/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ioan Carabenciov , Charles Freedman , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Douglas Laxton , Ondra Kamenik , and Petar Manchev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484318942.001

ISBN: 9781484318942

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Bayesian Estimation, exchange rate, inflation, real exchange rate, real interest rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economist...

Georgia
			: First and Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Under the Standby Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia

Georgia : First and Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Under the Standby Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia »

Volume/Issue: 2013/95

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484323557.002

ISBN: 9781484323557

Keywords: current account, external debt, current account deficit, balance of payments, public debt

The new government is committed to prudent macroeconomic policies and to enhancing Georgia's business-friendly environment. Large external liabilities plus its high current account deficit remain the main sources o...

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium

Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium »

Volume/Issue: 2013/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Raphael Espinoza , and Dimitrios P. Tsomocos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392331.001

ISBN: 9781484392331

Keywords: Liquidity, Cash-in-advance constraints, Term structure of interest rates, money supply, quantity theory of money, central bank, quantity theory, theory of money, Asset Pricing,

We show that, in a monetary equilibrium, trade and asset prices depend on both the supply of the liquidity by the Central Bank and the liquidity of assets and commodities. As a result, monetary aggregates are infor...

Hitchhiker's Guide to Inflation in Libya

Hitchhiker's Guide to Inflation in Libya »

Volume/Issue: 2013/78

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Katerina Teksoz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353042.001

ISBN: 9781484353042

Keywords: international sanctions, price inflation, inflation dynamics, General,

This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determin...

Costa Rica
			: 2012 Article IV Consultation

Costa Rica : 2012 Article IV Consultation »

Volume/Issue: 2013/79

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484382646.002

ISBN: 9781484382646

Keywords: inflation, central bank, public sector debt, current account, public debt

This article is an analytical report of the economic developments of Costa Rica. The economy showed rapid growth in the aftermath of the global crisis with low inflation; but for further stable growth, certain poli...

Non-Performing Loans in CESEE
			: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance

Non-Performing Loans in CESEE : Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance »

Volume/Issue: 2013/72

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484318522.001

ISBN: 9781484318522

Keywords: Macrofinancial linkages, credit growth, feedback effects, inflation, banking, banking system, return on equity, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, feedback effects.,

The paper investigates the non-performing loans (NPLs) in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (CESEE) in the period of 1998–2011. The paper finds that the level of NPLs can be attributed to both macroe...

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries
			: Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries : Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya »

Volume/Issue: 2013/61

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Andrew Berg , R. Morales , Rafael Portillo , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 March 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475537444.001

ISBN: 9781475537444

Keywords: Low-Income Countries, inflation, central bank, relative price, relative prices, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Simulation, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development,

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use...

Getting to Know GIMF
			: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Getting to Know GIMF : The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model »

Volume/Issue: 2013/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , Michael Kumhof , Douglas Laxton , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475559415.001

ISBN: 9781475559415

Keywords: business cycle, fiscal multipliers, general equilibrium models, interest rates, macroeconomic interdependence, policy effects, simulation, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research....