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Multi-Country Report
			: Building Fiscal Capacity in Fragile States-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report

Multi-Country Report : Building Fiscal Capacity in Fragile States-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/153

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 June 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484303719.002

ISBN: 9781484303719

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Europe, Haiti, Kosovo, Liberia, Mali, Middle East, Myanmar, South Sudan, Sub-Saharan Africa

This report reviews the IMF's effort to build fiscal capacity in fragile states. It presents case studies on IMF technical assistance (TA) and capacity development in the fiscal area, provided by its Fiscal Affairs...

The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015

The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015 »

Series: Manuals & Guides

Author(s): Rita Mesias

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 January 2017

Language: French

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475523256.069

ISBN: 9781475523256

Keywords: investment, enterprise, equity, direct investment, debt

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies in participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of t...

How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices

How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices »

Volume: 16

Series: Fiscal Affairs Department How-To Notes

Author(s): Paulo Medas , Veronique Salins , and Jeff Danforth

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 September 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475536065.061

ISBN: 9781475536065

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Canada, Chile, Commodity prices, Malaysia, Natural resources, Nigeria, Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Hemisphere, Commodity boom

Resource-rich countries have to manage highly volatile commodity revenues. In periods of revenue booms there is a tendency for large spending scale-ups. When facing large and persistent reductions in commodity pric...

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe
			: 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Exective Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe : 2016 Article IV Consultation, First Review under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Exective Director for the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe »

Volume/Issue: 2016/174

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 June 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498307444.002

ISBN: 9781498307444

Keywords: debt, poverty, monetary fund, commercial banks, market

This paper discusses recent economic developments and economic outlook and risks of São Tomé and Príncipe. Although São Tomé and Príncipe's economic development is constrained by its insularity, fragility, limited...

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016
			: Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016 : Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 April 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513506777.082

ISBN: 9781513506777

Keywords: Financial stability, Global Financial Stability Report, Global Financial Stability Reports, Global Financial Stability Risks, International financial stability, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, market, emerging market, insurance, equity

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in adv...

Bank Solvency and Funding Cost

Bank Solvency and Funding Cost »

Volume/Issue: 2016/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Aymanns , Carlos Caceres , Christina Daniel , and Liliana Schumacher

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 March 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513591131.001

ISBN: 9781513591131

Keywords: Solvency, funding cost, bank fundamentals, bank, banks, interest, capital, risk, General, All Countries,

Understanding the interaction between bank solvency and funding cost is a crucial pre-requisite for stress-testing. In this paper we study the sensitivity of bank funding cost to solvency measures while controlling...

Institutionalizing Countercyclical Investment

Institutionalizing Countercyclical Investment »

Volume/Issue: 2016/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bradley Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513512495.001

ISBN: 9781513512495

Keywords: Asset Allocation, Asset Owners, Momentum, Risk Management, asset, investment, risk, returns, Asset Pricing, Government Policy and Regulation

Do portfolio shifts by the world’s largest asset owners respond procyclically to past returns, or countercyclically to valuations? And if countercyclical investment (with both market-stabilizing and return-generati...

Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries
			: (FARI Methodology)

Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries : (FARI Methodology) »

Volume: 16

Series: Technical Notes and Manuals

Author(s): Oana Luca , and Diego Mesa Puyo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513575117.005

ISBN: 9781513575117

Keywords: Mining taxation, petroleum taxation, fiscal regime design, tax, instruments, revenue, valuation, cash flows, General, Business Taxes and Subsidies

This manual introduces key concepts and methodology used by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) in its fiscal analysis of resource industries (FARI) framework. Proper evaluation of fiscal regimes for extractive ind...

IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Annual Report 2015

IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics Annual Report 2015 »

Series: Balance of Payments Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498386128.044

ISBN: 9781498386128

Keywords: balance of payments, currency, investment, currencies, assets

The 2015 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (Committee) provides an overview of recent trends in global balance of payments and international investment position (IIP) statistics,...

Quality and the Great Trade Collapse

Quality and the Great Trade Collapse »

Volume/Issue: 2016/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalie Chen , and Luciana Juvenal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498347587.001

ISBN: 9781498347587

Keywords: heterogeneity, multi-product firms, quality, trade collapse, unit values, wine, trade, goods, value, export growth

We explore whether the global financial crisis has had heterogeneous effects on traded goods differentiated by quality. Combining a dataset of Argentinean firm-level destination-specific wine exports with quality r...

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom »

Volume/Issue: 2016/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Aqib Aslam , Samya Beidas-Strom , Rudolfs Bems , Oya Celasun , Sinem Kılıç Çelik , and Zsoka Koczan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001

ISBN: 9781498338158

Keywords: Resource Boom, commodity, output, trade, price, prices, Global Commodity Crises, Resource Booms, All Countries,, Natural resources

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these econ...

Pilot Project on Concentration and Distribution Measures for a Selected Set of Financial Soundness Indicators

Pilot Project on Concentration and Distribution Measures for a Selected Set of Financial Soundness Indicators »

Volume/Issue: 2016/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Joseph Crowley , Plapa Koukpamou , Elena Loukoianova , and André Mialou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498337014.001

ISBN: 9781498337014

Keywords: Financial Soundness Indicators, Concentration and Distribution Measures, institutions, data, pilot project, confidentiality, information, General, All Countries, Fiscal Crisis,

This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF’s Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distributio...

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities

The Fiscal Costs of Contingent Liabilities »

Volume/Issue: 2016/14

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Elva Bova , Marta Ruiz-Arranz , Frederik Toscani , and H. Elif Ture

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498303606.001

ISBN: 9781498303606

Keywords: Fiscal Crisis, General, All Countries,, Budget deficits, Public debt, Contingent liabilities

We construct the first comprehensive dataset of contingent liability realizations in advanced and emerging markets for the period 1990–2014. We find that contingent liability realizations are a major source of fisc...

The Financial Wealth of Corporations

The Financial Wealth of Corporations »

Volume/Issue: 2016/11

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuko Hashimoto , and Noriaki Kinoshita

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484395073.001

ISBN: 9781484395073

Keywords: Nonfinancial corporation, financial balance sheet, net financial wealth, balance sheet, equity, debt, balance sheets, stock, General, Methodology for Collecting

This paper analyzes the nonfinancial corporation (NFC) sector’s financial balance sheets using data available from the OECD. In our sample of 20 advanced economies, corporate debt in percent of GDP—a frequently use...

Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development

Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development »

Volume/Issue: 2016/5

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katsiaryna Svirydzenka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513583709.001

ISBN: 9781513583709

Keywords: Financial Development, Financial Institutions and Markets, Index, markets, financial institutions, financial systems, financial markets, General, Index Numbers and Aggregation, Methodology for Collecting

There is a vast body of literature estimating the impact of financial development on economic growth, inequality, and economic stability. A typical empirical study approximates financial development with either one...

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind »

Volume/Issue: 2016/3

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lars Svensson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314787.001

ISBN: 9781498314787

Keywords: macroprudential policy, unemployment, unemployment rate, debt, marginal cost, benchmark, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), All Countries

“Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of hig...

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets

Non-Linear Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2016/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , and Agustin Roitman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513578262.001

ISBN: 9781513578262

Keywords: Non-Linearities, exchange rate, depreciation, inflation targeting, exchange rate movements, Models with Panel Data, General, All Countries,, Exchange rate pass-through, Foreign exchange

This paper estimates exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in emerging markets focusing on non-linearities and asymmetries. We document non-linearities and asymmetries in the transmission of exchange rate f...

Government Spending Effects in Low-income Countries

Government Spending Effects in Low-income Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2015/286

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wenyi Shen , Susan Yang , and Luis-Felipe Zanna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513578972.001

ISBN: 9781513578972

Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Low-income Countries, Public Investment, Fiscal Multipliers, Small Open DSGE Models, Aid, investment, government spending, exchange rate, exchange

Despite the voluminous literature on fiscal policy, very few papers focus on low-income countries (LICs). This paper develops a new-Keynesian small open economy model to show, analytically and through simulations,...

The Whole Elephant
			: A Proposal for Integrating Cash, Accrual, and Sustainability-Gap Accounts

The Whole Elephant : A Proposal for Integrating Cash, Accrual, and Sustainability-Gap Accounts »

Volume/Issue: 2015/261

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Irwin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513597492.001

ISBN: 9781513597492

Keywords: Accrual accounts, comprehensive accounts, factor income distribution, budget deficit, deficit, accounting, transactions, All Countries,

Although the budget deficit is much discussed in political debate and economic research, there is no agreement on how it should be measured. There are at least four options, which can be called the cash deficit, th...

Recognizing the Bias
			: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy

Recognizing the Bias : Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2015/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nina Budina , Borja Gracia , Xingwei Hu , and Sergejs Saksonovs

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 November 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513508863.001

ISBN: 9781513508863

Keywords: housing cycles, private debt, debt bias, debt, price, output, prices, International Lending and Debt Problems, All Countries, debt bias.,

This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias-the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle- that is significantly larger for...

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2015/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Ebeke , and Armand Fouejieu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513586267.001

ISBN: 9781513586267

Keywords: Inflation targeting, Exchange rate regime, Non-linearities, exchange rate, inflation, central bank, General, Globalization: General, All Countries,

This paper investigates the effects of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging markets (EMs), conditional on certain macroeconomic conditions. Using a large sample...

Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound

Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound »

Volume/Issue: 2015/224

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruchir Agarwal , and Miles Kimball

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567327.001

ISBN: 9781513567327

Keywords: electronic money, currency, paper currency, interest rate, money, interest rates, General, All Countries,

There has been much discussion about eliminating the 'zero lower bound' by eliminating paper currency. But such a radical and difficult approach as eliminating paper currency is not necessary. Much as during the Gr...

The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015

The Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide 2015 »

Series: Manuals & Guides

Author(s): Rita Mesias

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513519418.069

ISBN: 9781513519418

Keywords: investment, enterprise, equity, direct investment, debt

This Coordinated Direct Investment Survey Guide (Guide) has been prepared to assist economies participating in the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS). The CDIS is being conducted under the auspices of the...

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015
			: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015 : Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513582047.082

ISBN: 9781513582047

Keywords: Liquidity, global financial crisis, securities markets, corporate debt, commodity prices, corporate bonds, regulations, equity bubble, normalization, risk premiums

The October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite an improvement in financial stability in advanced economies, risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets. The global financial outlook is...

IMF Financial Operations 2015

IMF Financial Operations 2015 »

Series: Books

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 October 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513549897.071

ISBN: 9781513549897

Keywords: interest, lending, debt, reserve, income

IMF Financial Operations 2015 provides a broad introduction to how the IMF fulfills its mission through its financial activities. It covers the financial structure and operations of the IMF and also provides backgr...

Getting the Dog to Bark
			: Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector

Getting the Dog to Bark : Disclosing Fiscal Risks from the Financial Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2015/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Timothy Irwin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513507736.001

ISBN: 9781513507736

Keywords: Implicit guarantees, fiscal risks, financial crisis, budget reports, guarantees, debt, liabilities, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

Fiscal reporting is intended to warn of fiscal crises while there is still time to prevent them. The recent crisis thus seems to reveal a failure of fiscal reporting: before the crisis, even reports on fiscal risk...

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Eswar Prasad , and Boyang Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513572574.001

ISBN: 9781513572574

Keywords: monetary policy framework, core inflation, headline inflation, financial frictions, inflation, economies, welfare, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of d...

Inequality and Fiscal Policy

Inequality and Fiscal Policy »

Series: Books

Author(s): Benedict Clements , Ruud Mooij , Sanjeev Gupta , and Michael Keen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567754.071

ISBN: 9781513567754

Keywords: income, tax, taxes, revenue, health

The sizeable increase in income inequality experienced in advanced economies and many parts of the world since the 1990s and the severe consequences of the global economic and financial crisis have brought distribu...

Financial Inclusion
			: Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals?

Financial Inclusion : Can it Meet Multiple Macroeconomic Goals? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/17

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Martin Cihak , Papa N'Diaye , Adolfo Barajas , Srobona Mitra , Annette Kyobe , Yen Mooi , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513585154.006

ISBN: 9781513585154

Keywords: Financial services, Economic growth, Inclusive growth, Household credit, Business enterprises, Financial sector, Income inequality, Gender, Economic stability, Financial stability

Using several recently available global datasets, this Staff Discussion Note examines macroeconomic effects of financial inclusion. It finds significant benefits to economic growth from financial inclusion, but the...

Building a Better Union
			: Incentivizing Structural Reforms in the Euro Area

Building a Better Union : Incentivizing Structural Reforms in the Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2015/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angana Banerji , Bergljot Barkbu , James John , Tidiane Kinda , Sergejs Saksonovs , Hanni Schoelermann , and Tao Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513517087.001

ISBN: 9781513517087

Keywords: Structural reform, European economic governance, governance, states, member states, legislation, fiscal, Planning, Coordination, and Reform

The momentum for structural reforms is waning in the euro area at a time when even faster progress is needed to boost productivity and growth, achieve real economic convergence, and improve the resilience of the mo...

Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)

Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs) »

Volume/Issue: 2015/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bill Battaile , and Saurabh Mishra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513573571.001

ISBN: 9781513573571

Keywords: resource curse, diversification, income, productivity, gdp, development, Global Outlook, General,

This paper provides an empirical benchmarking of growth, productivity and export patterns for developing NREs against other low and middle income developing countries, to inform policy discussions and future analyt...

Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices

Systemic Risk, Aggregate Demand, and Commodity Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2015/165

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Javier Gómez?Pineda , Dominique Guillaume , and Kadir Tanyeri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513552545.001

ISBN: 9781513552545

Keywords: Financial linkages, Global imbalances Commodity prices, output, country risk, trade, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Simulation,

The paper presents a global model with systemic and country risks, as well as commodity prices.We show that systemic risk shocks have an important impact on world economic activity, with the busts in world output g...

The Dog That Didn't Bark
			: The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the 'New Normal'

The Dog That Didn't Bark : The Strange Case of Domestic Policy Cooperation in the 'New Normal' »

Volume/Issue: 2015/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 July 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513584607.001

ISBN: 9781513584607

Keywords: Domestic Policy Cooperation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, central bank, international monetary fund, central banks, Structure and Scope of Government, General,

This paper examines domestic policy cooperation, a curiously neglected issue. Both international and domestic cooperation were live issues in the 1970s when the IS/LM model predicted very different external outcome...

Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops
			: Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other?

Estimation and out-of-sample Prediction of Sudden Stops : Do Regions of Emerging Markets Behave Differently from Each Other? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/138

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513563442.001

ISBN: 9781513563442

Keywords: gross capital inflows, emerging market economies, emerging market, market, market economies, Models with Panel Data, emerging market economies.,

We identify episodes of sudden stops in emerging economies and estimate the probability to observe them. Sudden stops are more likely when global growth falters, risk aversion in financial markets rises, and vulner...

The Journey to Inflation Targeting
			: Easier Said than Done The Case for Transitional Arrangements along the Road

The Journey to Inflation Targeting : Easier Said than Done The Case for Transitional Arrangements along the Road »

Volume/Issue: 2015/136

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bernard Laurens , Kelly Eckhold , Darryl King , Nils Mæhle , Abdul Naseer , and Alain Durré

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513567990.001

ISBN: 9781513567990

Keywords: central bank, exchange rate, interest rates, central banks, General,

Countries with evolving monetary regimes that decide to embark on 'the Journey to inflation targeting' may not be able to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime immediately. Those countries would be better...

What Really Drives Public Debt
			: A Holistic Approach

What Really Drives Public Debt : A Holistic Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2015/137

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pablo Anaya , and Alex Pienkowski

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513591353.001

ISBN: 9781513591353

Keywords: debt, interest, interest rate, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

This paper presents a novel approach to detail the propagation of shocks to public debt. The modeling technique involves a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimator with an endogenous debt accumulation equ...

Inflation-Forecast Targeting
			: Applying the Principle of Transparency

Inflation-Forecast Targeting : Applying the Principle of Transparency »

Volume/Issue: 2015/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Charles Freedman , Michel Juillard , Ondrej Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513557656.001

ISBN: 9781513557656

Keywords: Optimal Control, inflation, interest, interest rate, central bank, General,

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To suppo...

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States

Strengthening Fiscal Frameworks and Improving the Spending Mix in Small States »

Volume/Issue: 2015/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ezequiel Cabezon , Patrizia Tumbarello , and Yiqun Wu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529103.001

ISBN: 9781513529103

Keywords: revenue volatility, procyclical policies, quality of spending, revenue, debt, expenditure, public spending, General,

Reflecting diseconomies of scale in providing public goods and services, recurrent spending in small states typically represents a large share of GDP. For some small states, this limits the fiscal space available f...

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality
			: A Global Perspective

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality : A Global Perspective »

Volume/Issue: 2015/13

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Kalpana Kochhar , Nujin Suphaphiphat , Frantisek Ricka , and Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513555188.006

ISBN: 9781513555188

Keywords: Cross-country analysis, Inequality, Gini coefficient, income, income inequality, middle class, income share, Equity, Justice, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill...

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/10

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Jonathan Ostry , Atish Ghosh , and Raphael Espinoza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498379205.006

ISBN: 9781498379205

Keywords: Economic growth, Public investment, Public debt, debt, investment, financial crisis, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

What considerations should guide public debt policy going forward? Should debt be reduced to achieve normative anchors (such as 60 percent of GDP), should it be increased further to finance a big public investment...

Sub-National Government's Risk Premia
			: Does Fiscal Performance Matter?

Sub-National Government's Risk Premia : Does Fiscal Performance Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergio Sola , and Geremia Palomba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513511061.001

ISBN: 9781513511061

Keywords: Sub-national governments, market, markets, debt, bonds, primary market, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asset Pricing, General,

This paper examines the determinants of sub-national governments risk premia using secondary market data for U.S., Canada, Australia and Germany. It finds that, as for central governments, fiscal fundamentals matte...

Issuance of Central Bank Securities
			: International Experiences and Guidelines

Issuance of Central Bank Securities : International Experiences and Guidelines »

Volume/Issue: 2015/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Simon Gray , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513593371.001

ISBN: 9781513593371

Keywords: central bank securities, securities market development, securities, central bank, issuance, central banks, securities issuance, General,

The paper discusses the reasons for central bank (CB) issuance of securities, and reasons for choosing different approaches e.g. in maturities and target market. It provides evidence on the range of different appro...

Rethinking Financial Deepening
			: Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets

Rethinking Financial Deepening : Stability and Growth in Emerging Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2015/8

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Martin Cihak , Papa N'Diaye , Adolfo Barajas , Diana Ayala Pena , Ran Bi , Yuan Gao , Annette Kyobe , Lam Nguyen , Christian Saborowski , Katsiaryna Svirydzenka , and Reza Yousefi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498312615.006

ISBN: 9781498312615

Keywords: Economic growth, Emerging markets, Financial stability, financial development, financial deepening, financial inclusion, finance, General, Government Policy and Regulation, Estabilidad financiera; Crecimiento económico; Desarrollo del mercado de capitales; Acceso a los mercados de capitales; Mercados emergentes

The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn f...

Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia's Manufacturing Sector
			: Exchange Rate or Structural?

Determinants of Firm Profitability in Colombia's Manufacturing Sector : Exchange Rate or Structural? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/97

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Naomi Griffin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484364222.001

ISBN: 9781484364222

Keywords: Real exchange rate, structural changes, exchange rate, imports, demand, real effective exchange rate, Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope, General,

The appreciation of the real exchange rate over the past several years is considered one of the key drivers behind the weak performance of Colombia's manufacturing sector in recent years. This paper examines the ef...

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
			: Evidence from Advanced Economies

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment : Evidence from Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdul Abiad , Davide Furceri , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475578874.001

ISBN: 9781475578874

Keywords: Growth, Debt, investment, private investment, capital, Demand and Supply, Energy and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy, Debt.,

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample o...

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño »

Volume/Issue: 2015/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475535495.001

ISBN: 9781475535495

Keywords: El Ni&;amp;#x00F1;o weather shocks, oil and non-fuel commodity prices, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, prices, inflation, variables, gdp, trade, Time-Series Models

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the...

What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics

What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2015/88

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robert Heath

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475520965.001

ISBN: 9781475520965

Keywords: data dissmination standards, financial interconnections, capital flow, capital flows, investment, financial stability, monetary fund, General, financial interconnections.,

The liberalization of capital flows both in the domestic economy and cross-border has been among the most important policies adopted by IMF member countries over recent decades. The impact has been wide-ranging. Th...

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers

Financial Crisis, US Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2015/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qianying Chen , Andrew Filardo , Dong He , and Feng Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475520668.001

ISBN: 9781475520668

Keywords: emerging economies, global VAR, international monetary policy spillovers, quantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, federal reserve, securities, reserve, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy (Targets

We study the impact of the US quantitative easing (QE) on both the emerging and advanced economies, estimating a global vector error-correction model (GVECM) and conducting counterfactual analyses. We focus on the...

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015
			: Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015 : Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks »

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498372930.082

ISBN: 9781498372930

Keywords: debt, liquidity, investors, financial stability, market

The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by...

Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?

Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Magud , and Sebastian Sosa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475534221.001

ISBN: 9781475534221

Keywords: financial constraints, private investment, commodity, debt, General, General, General, General, capital inflows.,

We document that (i) although private investment growth in emerging markets has decelerated in recent years, it came down from cyclical highs and remains close to pre-crisis trends; and (ii) investment-to-output ra...

Fiscal Decentralization and the Efficiency of Public Service Delivery

Fiscal Decentralization and the Efficiency of Public Service Delivery »

Volume/Issue: 2015/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Moussé Sow , and Ivohasina Razafimahefa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484351116.001

ISBN: 9781484351116

Keywords: Decentralization, efficiency, stochastic frontier analysis, fiscal decentralization, public expenditure, expenditure, Methodological Issues: General, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, General, Intergovernmental Relations,

This paper explores the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of public service delivery. It uses a stochastic frontier method to estimate time-varying efficiency coefficients and analyzes the impact...

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP

How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP »

Volume/Issue: 2015/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Fletcher , and Damiano Sandri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498393577.001

ISBN: 9781498393577

Keywords: hysteresis, fiscal multipliers, gdp, multipliers, debt, interest, interest rate,

We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stance's effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the a...

The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries

The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2015/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rui Mano , and Marola Castillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484392140.001

ISBN: 9781484392140

Keywords: Sectoral Productivity, Traded and Non-Traded Sectors, industry, productivity, value added, value, products, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989-2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as r...

Financial Decisions and Investment Outcomes in Developing Countries
			: The Role of Institutions

Financial Decisions and Investment Outcomes in Developing Countries : The Role of Institutions »

Volume/Issue: 2015/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rima Turk

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498359054.001

ISBN: 9781498359054

Keywords: Corporate Decisions, Legal Origin, Investor Protection, investment, investor, exchange,

This paper analyzes how differences in legal origin, judicial efficiency, and investor protection affect firm leverage and earnings volatility across developing countries. Using a large number of developing countri...

Fair Play
			: More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation

Fair Play : More Equal Laws Boost Female Labor Force Participation »

Volume/Issue: 2015/2

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Christian Gonzales , Sonali Jain-Chandra , Kalpana Kochhar , and Monique Newiak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498354424.006

ISBN: 9781498354424

Keywords: Labor force participation, Gender equality, Women, female labor force participation, gender equity, legal rights, gender, labor force, female labor, Participación en la fuerza laboral;Mujeres;Igualdad de género;Mercados de trabajo;Reformas del mercado laboral;Aspectos económicos de la familia;Análisis entre países

This Staff Discussion Note examines the effect of gender-based legal restrictions and other policy choices and demographic characteristics on female labor force participation. Drawing on a large and novel panel dat...

Uncertainty and Unemployment
			: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Uncertainty and Unemployment : The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels »

Volume/Issue: 2015/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498356305.001

ISBN: 9781498356305

Keywords: aggregate uncertainty, sectoral uncertainty, stock market, Great Recession, unemployment rate, labor, labor market, long-term unemployment, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we...

Asset Bubbles
			: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management

Asset Bubbles : Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management »

Volume/Issue: 2015/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bradley Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 February 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475576207.001

ISBN: 9781475576207

Keywords: markets, financial markets, balance sheet, returns, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles, Asset Pricing, Government Policy and Regulation,

In distilling a vast literature spanning the rational- irrational divide, this paper offers reflections on why asset bubbles continue to threaten economic stability despite financial markets becoming more informati...

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies

The Effects of U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asia Frontier Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2015/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sohrab Rafiq

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334037.001

ISBN: 9781498334037

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy, interest rates, exchange rate, international monetary fund, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics,

This paper explores the effect of U.S. unconventional monetary policy (QE2) on a group of frontier developing economies (FDEs) in Asia. This paper finds that spillovers emanating from the U.S. on FDEs in Asia have...

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses

Uncertainty and the Employment Dynamics of Small and Large Businesses »

Volume/Issue: 2015/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Ghosal , and Yang Ye

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475552515.001

ISBN: 9781475552515

Keywords: uncertainty, small businesses, real-options, financing-constraints, costs, gdp, forecasting, variables, investment, General

We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based on the survey of professional forecasters, and regressionbased forecasting models for GDP growt...

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking »

Volume/Issue: 2015/1

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Artak Harutyunyan , Alexander Massara , Giovanni Ugazio , Goran Amidzic , and Richard Walton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498391788.001

ISBN: 9781498391788

Keywords: noncore liabilities, financial institutions, deposits, instruments, banking system, International Lending and Debt Problems,

In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to estimate the size of the shadow banking system, using official data reported to the IMF complemented by other data sources. We base our alternative approach on t...

Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection
			: An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions

Market Signals and the Cost of Credit Risk Protection : An Analysis of CDS Settlement Auctions »

Volume/Issue: 2014/239

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luisa Zanforlin , and Nobuyuki Kanazawa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498389471.001

ISBN: 9781498389471

Keywords: Credit Default Swaps, Market signals, Derivative Markets, cds, default, market, default probabilities, General, Derivative Markets.,

We study the link between the probability of default implied by Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads and the final prices of the defaulted bonds as established at the CDS settlement auctions. We observe that the post...

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets
			: Different This Time?

Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets : Different This Time? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiaqian Chen , Tommaso Mancini Griffoli , and Ratna Sahay

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498380423.001

ISBN: 9781498380423

Keywords: monetary policy announcements, unconventional monetary policies, markets, market, emerging market economies, General, General, emerging markets.,

The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies-dubbed spillovers-is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary pol...

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions

Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions »

Volume/Issue: 2014/213

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro , and Ksenia Koloskova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 December 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498336192.001

ISBN: 9781498336192

Keywords: fiscal consolidations, cumulative multipliers, labour market, protracted recessions, consolidations, consolidation, recessions, economy, business cycle, General,

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17...

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/206

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ernesto Crivelli , and Sanjeev Gupta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484380048.001

ISBN: 9781484380048

Keywords: structural conditionality, revenue, tax, taxes, revenues, goods, Models with Panel Data, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, General,

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund-supported programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993-2013. The results indicate that such condit...

Slowdown in Emerging Markets
			: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?

Slowdown in Emerging Markets : Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evridiki Tsounta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498304719.001

ISBN: 9781498304719

Keywords: potential growth, emerging market economies, growth, growth rate, capital, tfp, labor, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performa...

Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers
			: The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration

Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers : The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration »

Volume/Issue: 2014/187

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yoko Shinagawa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498365628.001

ISBN: 9781498365628

Keywords: Financial Spillover, Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), Home Bias, portfolio investment, financial market, bond, bond markets, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Portfolio Choice,

This paper defines financial market spillovers as the comovement between two countries' financial markets and analyzes financial market spillovers over the period 2001-12 through four channels: bilateral portfolio...

Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending

Financial Crises and the Composition of Cross-Border Lending »

Volume/Issue: 2014/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , Galina Hale , and Camelia Minoiu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361443.001

ISBN: 9781484361443

Keywords: syndicated loans, global financial crisis, BIS international banking statistics, Dealogic Loan Analytics, banking, bank assets, financial crisis, bank capital, General, Globalization: Finance,

We examine the composition and drivers of cross-border bank lending between 1995 and 2012, distinguishing between syndicated and non-syndicated loans. We show that on-balance sheet syndicated loan exposures account...

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2014
			: From stabilization to sustainable growth

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2014 : From stabilization to sustainable growth »

Series: Annual Report of the Executive Board

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498315357.011

ISBN: 9781498315357

Keywords: Annual reports, Administrative and Capital budgets, Bilateral surveillance, External training programs, Executive Board, Financial sector surveillance, IMF, IMF Finance, IMF Lending, Fund budget

Seven years after the onset of the global financial crisis, the world still has a way to go to secure a sustainable recovery marked by strong growth that supports rapid job creation and benefits all, International...

Emerging Market Volatility
			: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum

Emerging Market Volatility : Lessons from The Taper Tantrum »

Volume/Issue: 2014/9

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , Vivek Arora , Athanasios Arvanitis , Hamid Faruqee , Papa N'Diaye , and Tommaso Mancini Griffoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498318204.006

ISBN: 9781498318204

Keywords: Monetary policy, Emerging markets, United States, Capital flows, Financial markets, Capital market volatility, Macroprudential Policy, Developed countries, Tapering, unconventional monetary policy

Accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies have spurred increased capital inflows into emerging markets since the global financial crisis. Starting in May 2013, when the Federal Reserve publicly discusse...

Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Trade Policy

Food Prices and the Multiplier Effect of Trade Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Giordani , Nadia Rocha , and Michele Ruta

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498320382.001

ISBN: 9781498320382

Keywords: Loss aversion, Multiplier effect, Food crisis, domestic price, world price, global trade, import tariff, import subsidy, International Relations and International Political Economy: Other, Global Commodity Crises

This paper studies the relationship between trade policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss averse, governments may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large food price shocks...

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments

How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments »

Volume/Issue: 2014/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julio Escolano , Laura Jaramillo , Carlos Mulas-Granados , and G. Terrier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484378861.001

ISBN: 9781484378861

Keywords: Deficit, primary balance, size of adjustment, fiscal adjustments, fiscal consolidations, Structure and Scope of Government,

The sizeable fiscal consolidation required to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratios in several countries in the aftermath of the global crisis raises a crucial question on its feasibility. To answer this question, we re...

The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging
			: Supply Constraints and Intra-Group Frictions

The Great Cross-Border Bank Deleveraging : Supply Constraints and Intra-Group Frictions »

Volume/Issue: 2014/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eugenio Cerutti , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498354783.001

ISBN: 9781498354783

Keywords: Global banks, Credit supply, Deleveraging, banking, banking system, systemic crisis, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration,

International banks greatly reduced their direct cross-border and local affiliates' lending as the global financial crisis strained balance sheets, lowered borrower demand, and changed government policies. Using bi...

A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior

A Constrained Choice? Impact of Concessionality Requirements on Borrowing Behavior »

Volume/Issue: 2014/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Calixte Ahokpossi , Laurence Allain , and Giovanna Bua

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498349727.001

ISBN: 9781498349727

Keywords: Concessionality, debt limits policy, propensity score matching, external debt, public debt, private creditors, debt relief, concessional debt, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Lending and Debt Problems

This paper uses the propensity matching score approach to assess the impact of the IMF's debt limits policy (DLP) on borrowing behavior in countries eligible to borrow from its concessional lending window. The pape...

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons
			: Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions

Soaring of the Gulf Falcons : Diversification in the GCC Oil Exporters in Seven Propositions »

Volume/Issue: 2014/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , and Fuad Hasanov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498310642.001

ISBN: 9781498310642

Keywords: oil countries, growth, oil, exporters, oil exporters, oil exports, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development,

A key priority for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is to create a dynamic non-oil tradable sector to support sustainable growth. Since export diversification takes a long time, it has to start now. We...

Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

Mauritius The Drivers of Growth-Can the Past be Extended?

Mauritius The Drivers of Growth-Can the Past be Extended? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/134

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katsiaryna Svirydzenka , and Martin Petri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498392372.001

ISBN: 9781498392372

Keywords: Growth, growth accounting, tfp, growth rates, labor market, General,

Mauritius's economic performance has been called 'the Mauritian miracle' and the 'success of Africa' (Romer, 1992; Frankel, 2010; Stiglitz, 2011), despite difficult initial conditions that led a Nobel Prize Winner...

Administering Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries
			: A Handbook

Administering Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries : A Handbook »

Series: Books

Author(s): Jack Calder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475575170.071

ISBN: 9781475575170

Keywords: natural resource, natural resources, natural resource taxes, natural resource taxation, tax authority

This handbook is one of the first of its kind to focus attention on effectively administering revenues from extractive industries. It provides policymakers and officials in developing and emerging market economies...

Deposit Insurance Database

Deposit Insurance Database »

Volume/Issue: 2014/118

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Asli Demirgüç-Kunt , Edward Kane , and Luc Laeven

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498354479.001

ISBN: 9781498354479

Keywords: banking, deposit insurance scheme, deposit guarantee, banking crisis, General,

This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. We extend our earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of gover...

Financial Plumbing and Monetary Policy

Financial Plumbing and Monetary Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/111

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manmohan Singh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498367134.001

ISBN: 9781498367134

Keywords: quantitative easing, collateral velocity, Federal Reserve, repo rate, hedge, hedge funds, hedge fund, Government Policy and Regulation, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Corporation and Securities Law,

This paper focuses on how changes in financial plumbing of the markets may impact the monetary policy options as central banks contemplate lift off from zero lower bound (ZLB). Under the proposed regulations, banks...

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries

Tax Buoyancy in OECD Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/110

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vincent Belinga , Dora Benedek , Ruud A. Mooij , and John Norregaard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498305075.001

ISBN: 9781498305075

Keywords: Tax buoyancy, Error Correction Model, total tax revenue, tax revenues, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt,

By how much will faster economic growth boost government revenue? This paper estimates short- and long-run tax buoyancy in OECD countries between 1965 and 2012. We find that, for aggregate tax revenues, short-run t...

External Debt Statistics

External Debt Statistics »

Series: Manuals & Guides

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484366622.069

ISBN: 9781484366622

Keywords: external debt, external debt position, central bank, bonds, contingent liabilities, Debt (external), Central banks, Balance of payments

The External Debt Statistics: Guide for Compilers and Users (EDS Guide) contains updated global standards for the compilation, reporting, and analytical use of external debt statistics. The 2013 EDS Guide was prep...

The Net Stable Funding Ratio
			: Impact and Issues for Consideration

The Net Stable Funding Ratio : Impact and Issues for Consideration »

Volume/Issue: 2014/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jeanne Gobat , Mamoru Yanase , and Joseph Maloney

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498346498.001

ISBN: 9781498346498

Keywords: Bank Regulation, Financing, Firm Size, Policy, off balance sheet, banking supervision, bank for international settlements, banking system, Government Policy and Regulation, Firm Performance: Size

As part of Basel III reforms, the NSFR is a new prudential liquidity rule aimed at limiting excess maturity transformation risk in the banking sector and promoting funding stability. The revised package has been is...

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries

Inflation and Public Debt Reversals in the G7 Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bernardin Akitoby , Takuji Komatsuzaki , and Ariel Binder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498369954.001

ISBN: 9781498369954

Keywords: debt drisis, G7, soverign debt, average inflation, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, increase in inflation, International Lending and Debt Problems,

This paper investigates the impact of low or high inflation on the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 countries. Our simulations suggest that if inflation were to fall to zero for five years, the average net debt-...

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages

Ms. Muffet, the Spider(gram) and the Web of Macro-Financial Linkages »

Volume/Issue: 2014/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ricardo Cervantes , Phakawa Jeasakul , Joseph Maloney , and Li Lian Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 June 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498366397.001

ISBN: 9781498366397

Keywords: Bilateral, Country Financial Stability Map, Global Financial Stability Map, Ms. Muffet, macro-financial risks and conditions, multilateral, financial system, inflation, financial sector, monetary policy

The global financial crisis has underscored the importance of understanding macro-financial developments and spillovers in an increasingly interconnected and intricate system. At the IMF, staff is focusing on the l...

Inflation Reports and Models
			: How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498387613.001

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules
			: Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter?

Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Rules : Do Interactions and Sequencing Matter? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Louis Combes , Xavier Debrun , Alexandru Minea , and Rene Tapsoba

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498322379.001

ISBN: 9781498322379

Keywords: institutional reform sequencing, inflation, inflation rate, terms of trade, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary or Stabilization Policy, Deficit,

The paper examines the joint impact of inflation targeting (IT) and fiscal rules (FR) on fiscal behavior and inflation in a broad panel of advanced and developing economies over the period 1990-2009. The main contr...

Russian Federation
			: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Russian Federation : Fiscal Transparency Evaluation »

Volume/Issue: 2014/134

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498348058.002

ISBN: 9781498348058

Keywords: fiscal reports, fiscal statistics, fiscal reporting

This paper discusses key findings of the pilot Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the Russian Federation. Most aspects of Russia's fiscal reporting and budgeting practices are in line with good or advanced practice...

Determinants of International Tourism

Determinants of International Tourism »

Volume/Issue: 2014/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Culiuc

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 May 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484383032.001

ISBN: 9781484383032

Keywords: Gravity model, Real exchange rate, Small islands, tourist, tourists, tourist arrivals, tourism receipts, Country and Industry Studies of Trade,

The paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic supply- and demand-side determinants of tourism, one of the largest components of services exports globally, and the backbone of many smaller economies. It applies th...

Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks

Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2014/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rakesh Mohan , and Muneesh Kapur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362518.001

ISBN: 9781484362518

Keywords: coordination, unconventional monetary policy, monetary policies, monetary fund, central bank, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

The unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) pursued by the advanced economies (AEs) have posed macroeconomic challenges for the emerging market economies (EMEs) through volatile capital flows and exchange rates. AE...

Monetary Policy in the New Normal

Monetary Policy in the New Normal »

Volume/Issue: 2014/3

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Karl Habermeier , Tommaso Mancini Griffoli , and Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 April 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475561784.006

ISBN: 9781475561784

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Central bank autonomy, Central bank independence, Central banks, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Macroprudential Policy, inflation, central bank, monetary fund

The proposed SDN would take stock of the current debate on the shape that monetary policy should take after the crisis. It revisits the pros and cons of expanding the objectives of monetary policy, the merits of tu...

Asia's Stock Markets
			: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?

Asia's Stock Markets : Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Lipinsky , and Li Lian Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320143.001

ISBN: 9781484320143

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory, Asian financial crisis, fundamentals, global financial crisis, idiosyncratic factors, integration, IOSCO, securities regulation, stock market, stock pricing

Stock markets play a key role in corporate financing in Asia. However, despite their increasing importance in terms of size and cross-border investment activity, the region's markets are reputed to be more 'idiosyn...

Debt and Growth
			: Is There a Magic Threshold?

Debt and Growth : Is There a Magic Threshold? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , Damiano Sandri , and John Simon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484306444.001

ISBN: 9781484306444

Keywords: growth, gdp growth, debt thresholds, debt ratio, growth rate, General,

Using a novel empirical approach and an extensive dataset developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF, we find no evidence of any particular debt threshold above which medium-term growth prospects are dra...

Information Rigidities
			: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel

Information Rigidities : Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2014/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jonas Dovern , Ulrich Fritsche , Prakash Loungani , and Natalia Tamirisa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484305201.001

ISBN: 9781484305201

Keywords: Rational inattention, aggregation bias, growth forecasts, information rigidity, forecast behaviour, emerging economies, econometrics, parameters, Forecasting and Simulation,

We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is s...

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2014/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurence Ball , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475584097.001

ISBN: 9781475584097

Keywords: forecast revisions, Okun&;amp;#x2019;s Law, Great Recession, forecast assessment, unemployment rate, unemployment forecasts, recession, employment, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correl...

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2014/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Grigoli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484398241.001

ISBN: 9781484398241

Keywords: Education expenditure, efficiency, hybrid, developing economies, emerging economies, education spending, expenditure, educational outcomes, Health Production: Nutrition, Mortality

The measurement of the efficiency of public education expenditure using parametric and non-parametric methods has proven challenging. This paper seeks to overcome the difficulties of earlier studies by using a hybr...

IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries
			: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term

IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries : Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term »

Volume/Issue: 2013/273

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mumssen , Yasemin Bal-Gunduz , Christian Ebeke , and Linda Kaltani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484356203.001

ISBN: 9781484356203

Keywords: macroeconomic outcomes, propensity score matching, low-income countries, balance of payments, current account, current account balance, external shocks, current account balances, International Lending and Debt Problems, Globalization: Economic Development

This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and...

Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields »

Volume/Issue: 2013/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Jaramillo , and Yuanyan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475548617.001

ISBN: 9781475548617

Keywords: Government Bonds, Investor Base, Advanced Market Economies, Emerging Market Economies, bond, bond yields, sovereign bond, government bond, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Portfolio Choice,

Experience from the global financial crisis suggests that countries' borrowing costs are not solely determined by macro and fiscal fundamentals. Factors such as ownership structures of government securities, among...

This Time They Are Different
			: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

This Time They Are Different : Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2013/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484309285.001

ISBN: 9781484309285

Keywords: growth, common factor model, asymmetric ARDL, debt stock, debt terms, debt threshold, debt term, Models with Panel Data, International Lending and Debt Problems, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relat...

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2013

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2013 »

Series: Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484366806.012

ISBN: 9781484366806

Keywords: Exchange rate adjustments, Exchange rate appreciation, Exchange rate assessments, Exchange rate developments, Exchange rate determination, Exchange rate depreciation, Exchange rate guarantees, Exchange rate indicators, Exchange rate indexes, Exchange rate management

This is the 64th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on th...

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit »

Volume/Issue: 2013/241

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475513936.001

ISBN: 9781475513936

Keywords: Credit Cycles, Credit Crunch, Uncertainty, Self-insurance, real gdp, bank capital, gdp growth, bank capitalization, bank size, General

Recent studies show that uncertainty shocks have quantitatively important effects on the real economy. This paper examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank,...