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Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño »

Volume/Issue: 2015/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475535495.001

ISBN: 9781475535495

Keywords: El Ni&;amp;#x00F1;o weather shocks, oil and non-fuel commodity prices, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, prices, inflation, variables, gdp, trade, Time-Series Models

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the...

Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?

Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/77

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nicolas Magud , and Sebastian Sosa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 April 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475534221.001

ISBN: 9781475534221

Keywords: financial constraints, private investment, commodity, debt, General, General, General, General, capital inflows.,

We document that (i) although private investment growth in emerging markets has decelerated in recent years, it came down from cyclical highs and remains close to pre-crisis trends; and (ii) investment-to-output ra...

Measuring External Risks for Peru
			: Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy

Measuring External Risks for Peru : Insights from a Macroeconomic Model for a Small Open and Partially Dollarized Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2014/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 September 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498327220.001

ISBN: 9781498327220

Keywords: Macroeconomic Model, Partial Dollarization, External Risk, Macroeconomic Forecast, inflation, aggregate demand, monetary fund, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper quantifies the effects of external risks for Peru, with particular attention to two major external risks, China's investment slowdown and the U.S. monetary policy tightening. In particular, a macroeconom...

Russian Federation
			: Selected Issues

Russian Federation : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2013/311

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 October 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343470.002

ISBN: 9781484343470

Keywords: exchange rate, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate regime, exchange rates, exchange rate regimes, Exchange rate regimes],

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on exchange rate volatility in Russian Federation. Russia has seen an increase in exchange rate volatility during the past...

Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads

Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads »

Volume/Issue: 2011/221

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , Emanuele Baldacci , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463904234.001

ISBN: 9781463904234

Keywords: sovereign spreads, emerging market, spatial econometrics, external debt, bond, currency crises, sovereign bond, total external debt, International Finance: General,

We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects fr...

The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply
			: Evidence From Brazil

The Distributive Effects of Land Titleon Labor Supply : Evidence From Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2011/131

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mauricio Moura , Caio Piza , and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455259366.001

ISBN: 9781455259366

Keywords: land-titling, quantile regression, propensity score, land title, property rights, child labor, labor market, urban poor, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, Time Allocation and Labor Supply

This paper studies the effects of property-titling on labor supply. The role of legal ownership security is isolated by comparing the effect that being part of, or excluded from, a land title program in a unique qu...

The Monetary Transmission in Dollarized and Non-Dollarized Economies
			: The Cases of Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Uruguay

The Monetary Transmission in Dollarized and Non-Dollarized Economies : The Cases of Chile, New Zealand, Peru and Uruguay »

Volume/Issue: 2011/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Santiago Acosta Ormaechea , and David Coble Fernandez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455234097.001

ISBN: 9781455234097

Keywords: Monetary Policy Transmission, IT Regimes, inflation, central bank, money market, aggregate demand,

The paper conducts a comparative study of the monetary policy transmission in two economies that run a well-established IT regime, Chile and New Zealand, vis-à-vis two economies operating under relatively newer IT...

Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance
			: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them?

Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance : Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them? »

Volume/Issue: 2010/248

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina , Carlos Caceres , and Ana Corbacho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209484.001

ISBN: 9781455209484

Keywords: Fiscal Responsibility Laws, Fiscal Institutions, fiscal balance, fiscal balances, primary fiscal balance, Econometric Modeling: General, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General,

In recent years, many countries have adopted Fiscal Responsibility Laws to strengthen fiscal institutions and promote fiscal discipline in a credible, predictable and transparent manner. Still, results on the effec...

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs »

Volume/Issue: 2009/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871944.001

ISBN: 9781451871944

Keywords: sovereign debt and default, IFIs, debt, commercial debt, creditors, interest, private sector creditors,

This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on t...

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies
			: How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?

The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies : How Much is theprivate Sector Affected? »

Volume/Issue: 2009/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christoph Trebesch

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871760.001

ISBN: 9781451871760

Keywords: Sovereign Default, Reputation Spillovers, debt policies, debt crisis, external borrowing,

This paper proposes a new empirical measure of cooperative versus conflictual crisis resolution following sovereign default and debt distress. The index of government coerciveness is presented as a proxy for excusa...

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited
			: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited : Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects »

Volume/Issue: 2008/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chris Papageorgiou , Christian Henn , and Theo Eicher

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451869286.001

ISBN: 9781451869286

Keywords: Trade Creation and Trade Diversion, Preferential Trade Agreements, Bayesian Model Averaging, Country-Pair Fixed Effects, trade creation, trade flows, trade diversion, bilateral trade, trade agreements,

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing...

Measures of Central Bank Autonomy
			: Empirical Evidence for OECD, Developing, and Emerging Market Economies

Measures of Central Bank Autonomy : Empirical Evidence for OECD, Developing, and Emerging Market Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2006/228

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-François Segalotto , Marco Arnone , and Bernard Laurens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864885.001

ISBN: 9781451864885

Keywords: political autonomy, economic autonomy, central bank, monetary stability, public debt,

This paper presents an update of the Grilli-Masciandaro-Tabellini (GMT) index of central bank (CB) autonomy, based on CB legislation as of end-2003. The index is applied to a set of OECD and developing countries, a...

Central Bank Governance
			: A Survey of Boards and Management

Central Bank Governance : A Survey of Boards and Management »

Volume/Issue: 2004/226

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): JoAnne Morris , and Tonny Lybek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2004

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451875416.001

ISBN: 9781451875416

Keywords: central bank, inflation, reserve bank, Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: General, International, or Comparative,

This paper identifies issues to consider when designing the structure, size, and composition of the governing boards and management of a central bank. While central bank autonomy and accountability are generally ac...

Microfinance Institutions and Public Policy

Microfinance Institutions and Public Policy »

Volume/Issue: 2002/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857689.001

ISBN: 9781451857689

Keywords: microcredit, bank regulation, microfinance institutions, financial institutions, financial institution, Financial Institutions and Services: Government Policy and Regulation,

Many governments and nongovernmental organizations have adopted policies to promote the growth of microfinance institutions (MFIs). The appropriate level and form of support for MFIs are discussed in this paper on...

The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention

The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention »

Volume/Issue: 2002/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manuel De la Rocha , Roberto Perrelli , and Christian Mulder

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451847956.001

ISBN: 9781451847956

Keywords: External Vulnerability, Balance Sheet Effects, Corporate Sector, short-term debt, pre-crisis, currency crisis, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation, Corporate Indicators

This study tests the recent balance sheet explanations of external crises in emerging market countries and the role of standards in these crises. Using several unique data sets, it finds that corporate sector balan...

Manual de Estadísticas Monetarias y Financieras

Manual de Estadísticas Monetarias y Financieras »

Series: Other Statistical Products

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 November 2000

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781589060166.049

ISBN: 9781589060166

Este Manual ofrece directrices para la presentación de las estadísticas monetarias y financieras. El manual incluye un conjunto de instrumentos para identificar, clasificar y registrar stocks y flujos de activos y...

Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies
			: Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord

Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies : Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord »

Volume/Issue: 2000/69

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Brieuc Monfort

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451849059.001

ISBN: 9781451849059

Keywords: Rating agencies, capital requirements, economic crises, crisis index, credit ratings, asian crisis

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has proposed linking capital requirements for bank loans to ratings by commercial credit rating agencies. Estimates for 20 emerging market economies show that sovereign ra...

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies

The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Target in Highly Dollarized Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2000/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Andrew Berg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451844795.001

ISBN: 9781451844795

Keywords: exchange rates, financial programming, money demand, exchange rate, inflation, monetary aggregates

We examine the implications of high degrees of dollarization for the choice of exchange rate regime and the information content of various monetary aggregates in developing countries. We conclude that a high degree...

Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability

Political Instability and Economic Vulnerability »

Volume/Issue: 1999/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Mulder , and Matthieu Bussière

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451846539.001

ISBN: 9781451846539

Keywords: vulnerability indicators, political cycle, economic crises, emerging markets, elections, election, political variables, political instability, presidential elections

This paper analyzes and tests the influence of political instability on economic vulnerability in the context of the 1994 and 1997 crises episodes. It constructs four political variables that aim at quantifying pol...

Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility

Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility »

Volume/Issue: 1998/83

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Enrica Detragiache , and Asli Demirgüç-Kunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850512.001

ISBN: 9781451850512

Keywords: Financial liberalization, banking crises, financial development, banking, banking crisis, bank assets

A study of 53 countries during 1980-95 finds that financial liberalization increases the probability of a banking crisis, but less so where the institutional environment is strong. In particular, respect for the ru...

Social Dimensions of the IMF'S Policy Di Alogue (Reprinted 1998) P047

Social Dimensions of the IMF'S Policy Di Alogue (Reprinted 1998) P047 »

Series: Pamphlet Series

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1995

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557754790.054

ISBN: 9781557754790

Keywords: expenditure, expenditures, safety nets, social safety nets, subsidies

This pamphlet focuses on the IMF's role in social policy advice. First,the evolution of the IMF's involvement in social issues is traced,and the lessons that can be drawn from this experience, includingpolicy impli...

Finance & Development, December 1992

Finance & Development, December 1992 »

Volume/Issue: 29/4

Series: Finance & Development

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1992

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451951806.022

ISBN: 9781451951806

Keywords: poverty reduction, expenditures, expenditure, public expenditure, food subsidies

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly...

IMF Staff papers
			: Volume 38 No. 3

IMF Staff papers : Volume 38 No. 3 »

Volume: 38

Series: IMF Staff Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1991

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451973136.024

ISBN: 9781451973136

Keywords: current account, real exchange, real exchange rate, exchange rate, trade liberalization

Trade liberalization in developing countries is frequently opposed on the grounds that, because it is likely to cause a deterioration in the external balance, it may not be a viable policy option for countries faci...

Fund-Supported Programs, Fiscal Policy, and Income Distribution

Fund-Supported Programs, Fiscal Policy, and Income Distribution »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 September 1986

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9780939934645.084

ISBN: 9780939934645

Keywords: taxation, expenditure, salaries, subsidies, income distribution

This is the third in a group of three papers dealing with various aspects of Fund-supported adjustment programs....

Export Credit Cover Policies and Payments Difficulties

Export Credit Cover Policies and Payments Difficulties »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Chanpen Puckahtikom , and Eduard Brau

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 1985

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9780939934492.084

ISBN: 9780939934492

Keywords: export credit, export credit agencies, debtor countries, export credits, debtor country

In the current environment of payments difficulties, a principal role of the Fund remains the encouragement and support of timely adjustment policies of member countries....