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Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models

Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models »

Volume/Issue: 2018/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh , Sami Ben Naceur , Oussama Kanaan , and Christophe Rault

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484353622.001

ISBN: 9781484353622

Keywords: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Middle East, Oil prices, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Republic of, GCC stock markets

Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results r...

A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia

A Growth-Friendly Path for Building Fiscal Buffers in the Caucuses and Central Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/6

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Edward Gemayel , Lorraine Ocampos , Matteo Ghilardi , and James Aylward

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337165.087

ISBN: 9781484337165

Keywords: Growth acceleration, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of, Iran, Islamic Republic of, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Syrian Arab Republic, Yemen, Republic of, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan

Since 2014, large and persistent external shocks have hit the CCA region, particularly a slump in global commodity prices and slower growth in its key economic partners. Fiscal accommodation, along with currency ad...

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia

Public Wage Bills in the Middle East and Central Asia »

Volume: 18

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Natalia Tamirisa , and Christoph Duenwald

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484336731.087

ISBN: 9781484336731

Keywords: Public sector, Public sector wages, Public employment, Public expenditure management, Public expenditures reform, Public services, Public employment systems, Public sector; Public sector wages; Public employment; Public expenditure management; Public expenditures reform; Public services; Public employment systems

Analysis of policies for managing public sector wage bills in the Middle East and Central Asia region. While some work has been done recently at the Fund on issues related to government employment and compensation,...

Multi-Country Report
			: Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Banking-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report

Multi-Country Report : Ensuring Financial Stability in Countries with Islamic Banking-Case Studies-Press Release; Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2017/145

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 June 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484302996.002

ISBN: 9781484302996

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Bahrain, Djibouti, Europe, Indonesia, Kenya, Kuwait, Malaysia, Middle East, Nigeria

This paper presents country experiences with reforms to strengthen regulatory oversight of the Islamic banking sector. Based on the selected country experiences, a number of important lessons and policy options can...

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC »

Volume/Issue: 2016/161

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Padamja Khandelwal , Ken Miyajima , and Andre Santos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 August 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475523393.001

ISBN: 9781475523393

Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, nonperforming loans, panel vector autoregression

This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression appr...

Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region

Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region »

Volume/Issue: 2016/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , Heba Abdel Monem , and Pilar Garcia Martinez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 May 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361641.001

ISBN: 9781484361641

Keywords: Macroprudential policy, systemic risk, credit, financial stability

Several characteristics of the structure of the Arab economies, their economic policy framework, and their banking systems make macroprudential policy a particular relevant tool. For most oil exporters, heavy relia...

Islamic Finance and Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT)

Islamic Finance and Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) »

Volume/Issue: 2016/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nadim Kyriakos-Saad , Manuel Vasquez , Chady El Khoury , and Arz El Murr

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 February 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513516158.001

ISBN: 9781513516158

Keywords: Risk, AML/CFT, finance, financial institutions, transactions, islamic financial institutions, Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law, All Countries,, Islamic finance

The money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) risks associated with conventional finance are generally well identified and understood by the relevant national authorities. There is, however, no common unde...

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies

The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Benedict Clements , David Coady , Frank Eich , Sanjeev Gupta , Alvar Kangur , Baoping Shang , and Mauricio Soto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 January 2016

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9787504979971.084

ISBN: 9787504979971

Keywords: Pension reforms, Developed countries, Emerging markets, Pensions, Government expenditures, Cross country analysis, emerging market economies, retirement, pensions, pension spending

Pension reform is high on the policy agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies. In advanced economies the challenge is generally to contain future increases in public pension spending as the population...

Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC
			: Challenges and Options

Monetary Operations and Islamic Banking in the GCC : Challenges and Options »

Volume/Issue: 2015/234

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ritu Basu , Ananthakrishnan Prasad , and Sergio Rodriguez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513588513.001

ISBN: 9781513588513

Keywords: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Liquidity management, Monetary operations, Monetary policy, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, Islamic banking, GCC

The assessment provides evidence of market segmentation across Islamic and conventional banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), leading to excess liquidity, and an uneven playing field for Islamic banks that m...

Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council

Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council »

Volume/Issue: 2015/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alberto Behar

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 August 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513573885.001

ISBN: 9781513573885

Keywords: Employment Elasticities, Labor Market Adjustment Costs, GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council, labor market, labor, private sector, unemployment, Labor Economics: General, Labor Economics Policies

We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results...

Oman
			: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Data Module Volume I

Oman : Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Data Module Volume I »

Volume/Issue: 2015/159

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 June 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513550985.002

ISBN: 9781513550985

Keywords: data, price, information, users, metadata

This paper discusses the findings and recommendations of the Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Data Module for Oman. It is observed that Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and di...

Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries

Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2014/10

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Maria Albino-War , Svetlana Cerovic , Francesco Grigoli , Juan Flores , Javier Kapsoli , Haonan Qu , Yahia Said , Bahrom Shukurov , Martin Sommer , and SeokHyun Yoon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2014

Language: Arabic

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498314954.006

ISBN: 9781498314954

Keywords: Public investment, Middle East and Central Asia, North Africa, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Expenditure efficiency, Infrastructure, Transportation, Oil exporting countries, Public investment efficiency, natural resources

Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating...

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries

Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2012/132

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , and Raphael Espinoza

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503685.001

ISBN: 9781475503685

Keywords: Transmission mechanism, Fixed exchange rate regime, interest rate pass-through, panel VAR, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, monetary shocks,

The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the...

Oil Exporters' Dilemma
			: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest

Oil Exporters' Dilemma : How Much to Save and How Much to Invest »

Volume/Issue: 2012/4

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , and Fuad Hasanov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475502459.001

ISBN: 9781475502459

Keywords: volatility, precautionary, saving, buffer-stock, investment, oil exporters, fiscal policy, exporters, exporting countries, domestic investment

Policymakers in oil-exporting countries confront the question of how to allocate oil revenues among consumption, saving, and investment in the face of high income volatility. We study this allocation problem in a p...

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC)
			: Enhancing Economic Outcomes in an Uncertain Global Economy.

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC) : Enhancing Economic Outcomes in an Uncertain Global Economy. »

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Samya Beidas-Strom , Tobias Rasmussen , and David Robinson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484383315.087

ISBN: 9781484383315

Keywords: fiscal policy, interest, consumption, gdp, debt

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF's area and functional departments....

Oman
			: Banking Sector Resilience

Oman : Banking Sector Resilience »

Volume/Issue: 2010/61

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ananthakrishnan Prasad , and Pierluigi Bologna

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451982060.001

ISBN: 9781451982060

Keywords: Banking System, Risks, Stress Test, Gulf Cooperation Council Countries, banking, capital adequacy, capital adequacy ratio,

This note assesses the impact of the global financial risks on Oman's banking system and highlights the remaining risks. It concludes that the liquidity and prudential measures introduced by the authorities mitigat...

Determinants of Inflation in GCC

Determinants of Inflation in GCC »

Volume/Issue: 2009/82

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Magda Kandil , and Hanan Morsy

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872293.001

ISBN: 9781451872293

Keywords: domestic policies, inflationary pressures, price inflation, money supply, monetary growth,

Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external fa...

GCC Monetary Union and the Degree of Macroeconomic Policy Coordination

GCC Monetary Union and the Degree of Macroeconomic Policy Coordination »

Volume/Issue: 2007/249

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bassem Kamar , and Samy Ben Naceur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451868128.001

ISBN: 9781451868128

Keywords: Models with panel data, central banks and their policies, analysis of fiscal and monetary policy, economic integration, policy coordination and transmission, exchange rate, real exchange rate, correlation, exchange rates, cointegration,

Coordinating macroeconomic policies is a pre-requisite to a successful launch of the common currency in the GCC countries. Relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach as a theoretical framework, we...

Some Principles for Development of Statistics for a Gulf Cooperation Council Currency Union

Some Principles for Development of Statistics for a Gulf Cooperation Council Currency Union »

Volume/Issue: 2006/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Russell Krueger , and Ettore Kovarich

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451864014.001

ISBN: 9781451864014

Keywords: Gulf Cooperation Council, GCC, Currency Union, Monetary Union, EMU, monetary policy, statisticians, central bank, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating

Looking ahead to the creation of a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Currency Union in 2010, the paper covers some implications for the statistical programs of the GCC countries. Despite uncertainty over the structure...

Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
			: A Case for "Gulfstat"

Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries : A Case for "Gulfstat" »

Volume/Issue: 2006/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Abdulrahman Al-Mansouri , and Claudia Dziobek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451862980.001

ISBN: 9781451862980

Keywords: Data Quality, Gulf Cooperation Council, eurostat, surveys, statistical system, statistician, Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government, General Regional Economics (includes Regional Data)

The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, bas...

OMAN Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Data Module

OMAN Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Data Module »

Volume/Issue: 2005/429

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 December 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451830392.002

ISBN: 9781451830392

Keywords: balance of payments, debt, government finance, government debt

This report on Oman's Observance of Standards and Codes examines Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Omani authorities have strongly commi...

Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue
			: Evidence From GCC Countries

Testing the Relationship Between Government Spending and Revenue : Evidence From GCC Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2002/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qing Wang , and Ugo Fasano-Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2002

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451874365.001

ISBN: 9781451874365

Keywords: GCC countries, expenditure, government expenditure, expenditures, government revenue, central government fiscal, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General,

The paper examines the direction of causality between total government expenditure and revenue in oil-dependent GCC countries by utilizing a cointegration and error-correction modeling framework, and by calculating...

Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Economic Growth
			: Evidence from GCC Countries

Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Economic Growth : Evidence from GCC Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2001/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qing Wang , and Ugo Fasano-Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451859911.001

ISBN: 9781451859911

Keywords: non-oil real growth, GCC countries, expenditure, government expenditure, government spending, capital expenditure, expenditures, National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General,

Through the use of a multivariate cointegration and error-correction model, this study investigates the short- and long-run relationship over the past two decades between fiscal expenditure policy and non?oil real...

Human Capital Convergence
			: International Evidence

Human Capital Convergence : International Evidence »

Volume/Issue: 2001/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Randa Sab , and Stephen Smith

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845112.001

ISBN: 9781451845112

Keywords: convergence, growth, enrollment rate, equation, primary enrollment, enrollment rates, primary education, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, Health: Other,

In the growth literature, evidence on income convergence is mixed. In the development literature, health and education indicators are also often used. This study examines whether health and education levels are con...

Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries

Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2000/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ugo Fasano-Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451853599.001

ISBN: 9781451853599

Keywords: oil stabilization fund, oil savings fund, oil exporting countries, Chile&;amp;#x2019;s copper fund, fiscal indicators, oil prices, central government fiscal, oil revenues, fiscal policy

The main purposes of this paper are to review the operational modalities and experience of oil funds currently in place in Norway, Chile (copper), the State of Alaska, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Oman, and to draw some...

Oman Beyond the Oil Horizon
			: Policies Toward Sustainable Growth

Oman Beyond the Oil Horizon : Policies Toward Sustainable Growth »

Series: Occasional Papers

Author(s): Volker Treichel , and Ahsan Mansur

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 November 1999

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557758330.084

ISBN: 9781557758330

Keywords: fiscal policy, expenditure, capital expenditure, fiscal adjustment, fiscal impulse

With the steady increase of crude oil production and the surge in oil prices in the mid- and late 1970s, Oman embarked upon an economic development path that transformed it into a prosperous country. Today Oman boa...

Financial Systems and Labor Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Financial Systems and Labor Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries »

Series: Books

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 November 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557757128.071

ISBN: 9781557757128

Keywords: labor market, employment, labor force, financial institutions, financial systems

This volume comprises two separate papers on key structural aspects of the reform process in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The first paper addresses issues related to financial intermediation and reform i...

Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies

Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies »

Volume/Issue: 1997/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Amer Bisat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451850710.001

ISBN: 9781451850710

Keywords: Growth, Savings, Growth Accounting, Arab, Middle East and North Africa, tfp, growth rate, growth rates, economic growth

Sustaining a high rate of economic growth is the major policy issue facing the Arab economies. A detailed analysis of growth, investment, and savings for the period 1971-96, including through a growth accounting ex...

Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries
			: An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness

Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries : An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness »

Volume/Issue: 1997/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Kunzel , and Oleh Havrylyshyn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1997

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451973167.001

ISBN: 9781451973167

Keywords: industry trade, oil exporting countries, oil exporting, trade data, open trade

Recent and ongoing agreements to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU) and Arab countries raises the question as to how the latter will fare in a more competitive environment. This paper uses the Grubel-...

Policy Challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries

Policy Challenges in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries »

Series: Other Statistical Electronic Products

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 May 1996

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781557755827.038

ISBN: 9781557755827

Keywords: oil prices, oil market, oil sector, oil and gas, opec

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face important policy challenges and opportunities. This paper covers the economic developments and policies since 1980; the impact of the GCC's external environment; th...

The Use of Foreign Exchange Swaps by Central Banks
			: A Survey

The Use of Foreign Exchange Swaps by Central Banks : A Survey »

Volume/Issue: 1993/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catharina Hooyman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 1993

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848489.001

ISBN: 9781451848489

Keywords: foreign exchange, exchange swaps, foreign exchange swaps, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves

The paper discussed the use of foreign exchange swaps by central banks. Such use has aimed at affecting domestic liquidity, managing foreign exchange reserves, and stimulating domestic financial markets. It discuss...