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Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets?

New
Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets? »

Source: Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets?

Volume/Issue: 2020/56

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sakai Ando , and Mengxue Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513536323

Keywords: Foreign investment, International investment position, Balance of payments, Labor productivity, Job creation, FDI, Orbis, Ownership, WP, domestic firm

This paper studies whether FDI firms employ more workers than domestic firms for each dollar of assets. Using the Orbis database and its ownership structure information, we show that, in most economies, domestic fi...

Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets?

New
Do FDI Firms Employ More Workers than Domestic Firms for Each Dollar of Assets? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/56

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sakai Ando , and Mengxue Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536323.001

ISBN: 9781513536323

Keywords: Foreign investment, International investment position, Balance of payments, Labor productivity, Job creation, FDI, Orbis, Ownership, WP, domestic firm

This paper studies whether FDI firms employ more workers than domestic firms for each dollar of assets. Using the Orbis database and its ownership structure information, we show that, in most economies, domestic fi...

r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?

New
r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro , and Jing Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536071.001

ISBN: 9781513536071

Keywords: Real interest rates, Interest rate parity, Interest rate differential, Financial crises, Economic integration, interest-growth differentials, public debt, WP, sovereign default, emerge economy

Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differ...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

New
Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513531861.001

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

New
Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics »

Volume/Issue: 2020/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Raphael Espinoza , Miguel Segoviano , and Ji Yan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536170.001

ISBN: 9781513536170

Keywords: Financial crises, Bank credit, Financial markets, Financial institutions, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Systemic risk, Minsky effect, CIMDO, Default, WP

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for...

Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis

New
Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2020/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Armand Fouejieu , Anta Ndoye , and Tetyana Sydorenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513536156.001

ISBN: 9781513536156

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial services, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Bank credit, Financial systems, Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, Financial Inclusion, WP, SME, SMEs

Countries in the MENAP and CCA regions have the lowest levels of financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the world. The paper provides empirical evidence on the drivers of SME access to financ...

r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?*

New
r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?* »

Source: r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?

Volume/Issue: 2020/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paolo Mauro , and Jing Zhou

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513536071

Keywords: Real interest rates, Interest rate parity, Interest rate differential, Financial crises, Economic integration, interest-growth differentials, public debt, WP, sovereign default, emerge economy

Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differ...

Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment*

New
Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment* »

Source: Riding the Yield Curve: Risk Taking Behavior in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Volume/Issue: 2020/53

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ralph Chami , Thomas Cosimano , Celine Rochon , and Julieta Yung

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513531861

Keywords: Interest rate increases, Discount rates, Risk premium, Financial markets, Financial instruments, Interest rate risk, non-linear stochastic discount factor, investment portfolio, term structure model, risk aversion distribution

Investors seek to hedge against interest rate risk by taking long or short positions on bonds of different maturities. We study changes in risk taking behavior in a low interest rate environment by estimating a mar...

Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

New
Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics »

Source: Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

Volume/Issue: 2020/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Raphael Espinoza , Miguel Segoviano , and Ji Yan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513536170

Keywords: Financial crises, Bank credit, Financial markets, Financial institutions, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Systemic risk, Minsky effect, CIMDO, Default, WP

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for...

Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis

New
Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis »

Source: Unlocking Access to Finance for SMEs: A Cross-Country Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2020/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Armand Fouejieu , Anta Ndoye , and Tetyana Sydorenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513536156

Keywords: Financial crises, Financial services, Macroprudential policies and financial stability, Bank credit, Financial systems, Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, Financial Inclusion, WP, SME, SMEs

Countries in the MENAP and CCA regions have the lowest levels of financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the world. The paper provides empirical evidence on the drivers of SME access to financ...

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania »

Source: Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Volume/Issue: 2020/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthieu Bellon , Carlo Pizzinelli , and Roberto Perrelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513527017

Keywords: Economic conditions, National income, Income distribution, Demographic indicators, Poverty indicators, Poverty, Consumption Volatility, Tanzania, South Africa, WP

Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa...

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania

Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania »

Volume/Issue: 2020/51

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Matthieu Bellon , Carlo Pizzinelli , and Roberto Perrelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513527017.001

ISBN: 9781513527017

Keywords: Economic conditions, National income, Income distribution, Demographic indicators, Poverty indicators, Poverty, Consumption Volatility, Tanzania, South Africa, WP

Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa...

Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies

Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528397.001

ISBN: 9781513528397

Keywords: West African Economic and Monetary Union, National income, Consumption distribution, Personal income taxes, Inclusive growth, Middle East., WP, consumption expenditure, GIC, inclusiveness

Inclusive growth, narrowly defined in this paper as growth that helps reduce inequality, is achieved if consumption of the poor increases faster than consumption of the rich. The paper presents a simple accounting...

Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies

Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies »

Source: Operationalizing Inclusive Growth: Per-Percentile Diagnostics to Inform Redistribution Policies

Volume/Issue: 2020/50

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev , and Andrei Leonidov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 March 2020

ISBN: 9781513528397

Keywords: West African Economic and Monetary Union, National income, Consumption distribution, Personal income taxes, Inclusive growth, Middle East., WP, consumption expenditure, GIC, inclusiveness

Inclusive growth, narrowly defined in this paper as growth that helps reduce inequality, is achieved if consumption of the poor increases faster than consumption of the rich. The paper presents a simple accounting...

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning1

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning1 »

Source: Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

Volume/Issue: 2020/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513531724

Keywords: Production growth, Capacity utilization, Economic growth, Stock markets, Emerging markets, Forecasts, Nowcasting, Machine learning, GDP growth, Cross-validation

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use...

Exploring Residual Profit Allocation

Exploring Residual Profit Allocation »

Source: Exploring Residual Profit Allocation

Volume/Issue: 2020/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , Ruud A. Mooij , Shafik Hebous , Michael Keen , and Li Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528328

Keywords: Marginal effective tax rate, Low-income developing countries, Gross capital formation, Tax revenue, Effective tax rate, Residual Profit Allocation, International Corporate Taxation, Multinational Firms, WP, residual profit

Schemes of residual profit allocation (RPA) tax multinationals by allocating their ‘routine' profits to countries in which their activities take place and sharing their remaining ‘residual' profit across countries...

Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US

Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US »

Source: Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US

Volume/Issue: 2020/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damien Puy , Anil Ari , and Yu Shi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529264

Keywords: Economic conditions, Real estate prices, Housing prices, Business cycles, Demand, House Prices, Housing Affordability, Political Risk, Capital Flows., WP

We test whether foreign demand matters for local house prices in the US using an identification strategy based on the existence of 'home bias abroad' in international real estate markets. Following an extreme polit...

Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries

Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries »

Source: Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries

Volume/Issue: 2020/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , and Elizabeth Mahoney

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513530260

Keywords: Economic conditions, Price indexes, National income, Financial crises, Economic growth, Housing, Household Indebtedness, United States, Canada, Quantile Regressions

To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This pap...

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning

Deus ex Machina? A Framework for Macro Forecasting with Machine Learning »

Volume/Issue: 2020/45

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513531724.001

ISBN: 9781513531724

Keywords: Production growth, Capacity utilization, Economic growth, Stock markets, Emerging markets, Forecasts, Nowcasting, Machine learning, GDP growth, Cross-validation

We develop a framework to nowcast (and forecast) economic variables with machine learning techniques. We explain how machine learning methods can address common shortcomings of traditional OLS-based models and use...

Exploring Residual Profit Allocation

Exploring Residual Profit Allocation »

Volume/Issue: 2020/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , Ruud A. Mooij , Shafik Hebous , Michael Keen , and Li Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528328.001

ISBN: 9781513528328

Keywords: Marginal effective tax rate, Low-income developing countries, Gross capital formation, Tax revenue, Effective tax rate, Residual Profit Allocation, International Corporate Taxation, Multinational Firms, WP, residual profit

Schemes of residual profit allocation (RPA) tax multinationals by allocating their ‘routine' profits to countries in which their activities take place and sharing their remaining ‘residual' profit across countries...

Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US

Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US »

Volume/Issue: 2020/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Damien Puy , Anil Ari , and Yu Shi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529264.001

ISBN: 9781513529264

Keywords: Economic conditions, Real estate prices, Housing prices, Business cycles, Demand, House Prices, Housing Affordability, Political Risk, Capital Flows., WP

We test whether foreign demand matters for local house prices in the US using an identification strategy based on the existence of 'home bias abroad' in international real estate markets. Following an extreme polit...

Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries

Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/42

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adrian Alter , and Elizabeth Mahoney

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513530260.001

ISBN: 9781513530260

Keywords: Economic conditions, Price indexes, National income, Financial crises, Economic growth, Housing, Household Indebtedness, United States, Canada, Quantile Regressions

To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This pap...

International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme »

Volume/Issue: 2020/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katharina Bergant , Michael Fidora , and Martin Schmitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529233.001

ISBN: 9781513529233

Keywords: Financial and Monetary Sector, Financial crises, Debt securities, Mutual funds, Economic policy, International investment patterns, capital flows, sovereign debt, investor heterogeneity, quantitative easing

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Our empirical analysis shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and house...

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Kangni Kpodar , Andrea Presbitero , and Dawit Tessema

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529981.001

ISBN: 9781513529981

Keywords: National income, Public investments, Absorptive capacity, Economic growth, Public investment programs, Public investment, Unit costs, Investment efficiency, infrastructure, WP

While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association b...

The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries

The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/41

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Compaoré , Montfort Mlachila , Rasmané Ouedraogo , and Sandrine Sourouema

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513530055.001

ISBN: 9781513530055

Keywords: Banking crisis, Balance sheets, Economic recession, Banking sector, Real effective exchange rates, conflict, political instability, banking crises, fiscal crises, WP

While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper...

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data »

Volume/Issue: 2020/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529974.001

ISBN: 9781513529974

Keywords: Economic models, Production growth, Developing countries, Emerging markets, Data analysis, Machine learning, GDP growth, forecasts, panel data, pooling.

We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the si...

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil »

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528601.001

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...

The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries

The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries »

Source: The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries

Volume/Issue: 2020/41

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Compaoré , Montfort Mlachila , Rasmané Ouedraogo , and Sandrine Sourouema

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513530055

Keywords: Banking crisis, Balance sheets, Economic recession, Banking sector, Real effective exchange rates, conflict, political instability, banking crises, fiscal crises, WP

While there is an extensive literature examining the economic impact of conflict and political instability, surprisingly there have been few studies on their impact on the probability of banking crises. This paper...

International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme1

International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme1 »

Source: International Capital Flows at the Security Level - Evidence from the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme

Volume/Issue: 2020/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katharina Bergant , Michael Fidora , and Martin Schmitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529233

Keywords: Financial and Monetary Sector, Financial crises, Debt securities, Mutual funds, Economic policy, International investment patterns, capital flows, sovereign debt, investor heterogeneity, quantitative easing

We analyse euro area investors' portfolio rebalancing during the ECB's Asset Purchase Programme at the security level. Our empirical analysis shows that euro area investors (in particular investment funds and house...

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data1

The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data1 »

Source: The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data

Volume/Issue: 2020/44

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marijn Bolhuis , and Brett Rayner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529974

Keywords: Economic models, Production growth, Developing countries, Emerging markets, Data analysis, Machine learning, GDP growth, forecasts, panel data, pooling.

We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the si...

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?†

On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?† »

Source: On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?

Volume/Issue: 2020/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Gurara , Kangni Kpodar , Andrea Presbitero , and Dawit Tessema

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529981

Keywords: National income, Public investments, Absorptive capacity, Economic growth, Public investment programs, Public investment, Unit costs, Investment efficiency, infrastructure, WP

While expanding public investment can help filling infrastructure bottlenecks, scaling up too much and too fast often leads to inefficient outcomes. This paper rationalizes this outcome looking at the association b...

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1

Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil1 »

Source: Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil

Volume/Issue: 2020/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nooman Rebei , and Rashid Sbia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 28 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528601

Keywords: Oil prices, Supply and demand, Oil production, Purchasing power parity, Real sector, Oil market, Vector autoregressions, Narrative analysis, Bayesian estimation, Kalman filtering

This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evide...

Barbados' 2018-19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring-A Sea Change?

Barbados' 2018-19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring-A Sea Change? »

Source: Barbados' 2018-19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring-A Sea Change?

Volume/Issue: 2020/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Myrvin Anthony , Gregorio Impavido , and Bert van Selm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529967

Keywords: Domestic debt, Sovereign debt restructuring, Financial crises, Balance of payments, Public debt, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Defaults, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, Barbados, WP

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Barbados' 2018-19 sovereign debt restructuring-its first ever. The restructuring was comprehensive, featuring several rarely used approaches, including the...

Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy1

Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy1 »

Source: Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy

Volume/Issue: 2020/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nazim Belhocine , and Daniel Garcia-Macia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529998

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Price indexes, Unemployment, Development, Labor productivity, service market reform, firm entry/exit barriers, markups, productivity., WP

Italy's labor productivity in market services has declined since 2000, underperforming manufacturing and peer European countries, especially in strongly regulated sectors. A model of monopolistic competition is use...

Barbados' 2018-19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring-A Sea Change?

Barbados' 2018-19 Sovereign Debt Restructuring-A Sea Change? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Myrvin Anthony , Gregorio Impavido , and Bert van Selm

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529967.001

ISBN: 9781513529967

Keywords: Domestic debt, Sovereign debt restructuring, Financial crises, Balance of payments, Public debt, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Defaults, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, Barbados, WP

This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Barbados' 2018-19 sovereign debt restructuring-its first ever. The restructuring was comprehensive, featuring several rarely used approaches, including the...

Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy

Identifying Service Market Reform Priorities in Italy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nazim Belhocine , and Daniel Garcia-Macia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529998.001

ISBN: 9781513529998

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Price indexes, Unemployment, Development, Labor productivity, service market reform, firm entry/exit barriers, markups, productivity., WP

Italy's labor productivity in market services has declined since 2000, underperforming manufacturing and peer European countries, especially in strongly regulated sectors. A model of monopolistic competition is use...

Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy

Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Garcia-Macia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529721.001

ISBN: 9781513529721

Keywords: National accounts, Labor costs, Financial crises, Capital formation, Unit labor cost, corporate investment, capital returns, corporate profitability., WP, wage growth

The recovery of private investment in Italy has lagged its euro area peers over the past decade. This paper examines the role of elevated labor costs in hindering the recovery. Specifically, labor costs rose faster...

Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy

Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nazim Belhocine , and La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529714.001

ISBN: 9781513529714

Keywords: Public investments, Demographic indicators, Economic growth, Financial crises, Public procurement, Italy, public administration reform, public sector, state-owned enterprises, public procurement.

The reform of the Italian public administration has been a priority for at least two decades, with several major initiatives undertaken toward modernization and simplification. Notwithstanding laudable intentions,...

Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs

Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs »

Volume/Issue: 2020/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalie Chen , and Luciana Juvenal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529257.001

ISBN: 9781513529257

Keywords: Patterns of trade, Trade models, Demand elasticity, Financial statistics, Export prices, Distance, export unit values, heterogeneity, markups, quality

We investigate theoretically and empirically how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs...

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Brandao-Marques , R. Gelos , Thomas Harjes , Ratna Sahay , and Yi Xue

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529738.001

ISBN: 9781513529738

Keywords: Financial and Monetary Sector, Central bank independence, Nominal effective exchange rate, Monetary policy instruments, Exchange rate policy, Monetary Policy, Emerging markets, Exchange rate channel, Inflation targeting, Financial structure

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary...

Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy

Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy »

Volume/Issue: 2020/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emile Cammeraat , and Ernesto Crivelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529226.001

ISBN: 9781513529226

Keywords: Recurrent taxes on immovable property, Tax revenue, Tax reforms, Tax evasion, Tax rates, Italy, personal income tax, VAT, property tax, microsimulations

This paper evaluates elements of a comprehensive reform of the Italian tax system. Reform options are guided by the principles of reducing complexity, broadening the tax base, and lowering marginal tax rates, espec...

Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy1

Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy1 »

Source: Labor Costs and Corporate Investment in Italy

Volume/Issue: 2020/38

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Garcia-Macia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529721

Keywords: National accounts, Labor costs, Financial crises, Capital formation, Unit labor cost, corporate investment, capital returns, corporate profitability., WP, wage growth

The recovery of private investment in Italy has lagged its euro area peers over the past decade. This paper examines the role of elevated labor costs in hindering the recovery. Specifically, labor costs rose faster...

Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy1

Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy1 »

Source: Lessons from Two Public Sector Reforms in Italy

Volume/Issue: 2020/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nazim Belhocine , and La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529714

Keywords: Public investments, Demographic indicators, Economic growth, Financial crises, Public procurement, Italy, public administration reform, public sector, state-owned enterprises, public procurement.

The reform of the Italian public administration has been a priority for at least two decades, with several major initiatives undertaken toward modernization and simplification. Notwithstanding laudable intentions,...

Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs*

Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs* »

Source: Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs

Volume/Issue: 2020/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Natalie Chen , and Luciana Juvenal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529257

Keywords: Patterns of trade, Trade models, Demand elasticity, Financial statistics, Export prices, Distance, export unit values, heterogeneity, markups, quality

We investigate theoretically and empirically how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs...

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies »

Source: Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Volume/Issue: 2020/34

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luis Brandao-Marques , R. Gelos , Thomas Harjes , Ratna Sahay , and Yi Xue

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529738

Keywords: Financial and Monetary Sector, Central bank independence, Nominal effective exchange rate, Monetary policy instruments, Exchange rate policy, Monetary Policy, Emerging markets, Exchange rate channel, Inflation targeting, Financial structure

Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary...

Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy1

Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy1 »

Source: Toward a Comprehensive Tax Reform for Italy

Volume/Issue: 2020/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emile Cammeraat , and Ernesto Crivelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529226

Keywords: Recurrent taxes on immovable property, Tax revenue, Tax reforms, Tax evasion, Tax rates, Italy, personal income tax, VAT, property tax, microsimulations

This paper evaluates elements of a comprehensive reform of the Italian tax system. Reform options are guided by the principles of reducing complexity, broadening the tax base, and lowering marginal tax rates, espec...

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume/Issue: 2020/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , Sandesh Dhungana , Xiangming Fang , Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia , Yuanchen Yang , Mustafa Yenice , and Jung Eun Yoon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513526379

Keywords: Economic integration, Trade policy, Global competitiveness, Total factor productivity, International trade agreements, Markups, Market Power, Competition, Sub-Saharan Africa, WP

Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000...

A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance

A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance »

Volume/Issue: 2020/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Marc Fournier , and Philipp Lieberknecht

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513529240.001

ISBN: 9781513529240

Keywords: Economic stabilization, Interest rate increases, Business cycles, Financial crises, Economic forecasting, Fiscal Taylor Rule, Model, Toolkit, WP, output gap

This paper presents a model-based fiscal Taylor rule and a toolkit to assess the fiscal stance, defined as the change in the structural primary balance. This is built on the normative buffer-stock model of the gove...

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2020/30

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , Sandesh Dhungana , Xiangming Fang , Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia , Yuanchen Yang , Mustafa Yenice , and Jung Eun Yoon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526379.001

ISBN: 9781513526379

Keywords: Economic integration, Trade policy, Global competitiveness, Total factor productivity, International trade agreements, Markups, Market Power, Competition, Sub-Saharan Africa, WP

Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000...

Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality

Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality »

Volume/Issue: 2020/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Carolina Correa-Caro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513527871.001

ISBN: 9781513527871

Keywords: Income inequality, Economic reforms, Economic growth, Demographic indicators, Income distribution, fiscal policy, transition economies, WP, Gini coefficient, Gini

This paper investigates the main determinants of income inequality in transition countries during the period 1990-2018. To this end, we address a major methodological challenge that lies at the core of the cross-co...

Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda

Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda »

Volume/Issue: 2020/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anja Baum

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513527024.001

ISBN: 9781513527024

Keywords: Economic reforms, Economic stabilization, Economic growth, Poverty, Age-related spending, Vietnam, economic policies, SDGs, education, electricity

Despite starting as one of the poorest countries in the mid-1980s, Vietnam has achieved rapid developmental progress, reaching lower middle-income status in 2010. In line with rapid economic growth, Vietnam has ach...

A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance

A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance »

Source: A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance

Volume/Issue: 2020/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Marc Fournier , and Philipp Lieberknecht

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513529240

Keywords: Economic stabilization, Interest rate increases, Business cycles, Financial crises, Economic forecasting, Fiscal Taylor Rule, Model, Toolkit, WP, output gap

This paper presents a model-based fiscal Taylor rule and a toolkit to assess the fiscal stance, defined as the change in the structural primary balance. This is built on the normative buffer-stock model of the gove...

Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality

Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality »

Source: Taking Down the Wall: Transition and Inequality

Volume/Issue: 2020/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serhan Cevik , and Carolina Correa-Caro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513527871

Keywords: Income inequality, Economic reforms, Economic growth, Demographic indicators, Income distribution, fiscal policy, transition economies, WP, Gini coefficient, Gini

This paper investigates the main determinants of income inequality in transition countries during the period 1990-2018. To this end, we address a major methodological challenge that lies at the core of the cross-co...

Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda

Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda »

Source: Vietnam's Development Success Story and the Unfinished SDG Agenda

Volume/Issue: 2020/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anja Baum

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513527024

Keywords: Economic reforms, Economic stabilization, Economic growth, Poverty, Age-related spending, Vietnam, economic policies, SDGs, education, electricity

Despite starting as one of the poorest countries in the mid-1980s, Vietnam has achieved rapid developmental progress, reaching lower middle-income status in 2010. In line with rapid economic growth, Vietnam has ach...

Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience1

Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience1 »

Source: Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience

Volume/Issue: 2020/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ara Stepanyan , and Jorge Salas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513526874

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor market institutions, Labor market policy, Labor policy, Labor productivity, structural reforms, income inequality, social inclusion, synthetic control method, WP

Spain's structural reforms, implemented around 2012, have arguably contributed to a faster and stronger economic recovery. In particular, there is strong evidence that the 2012 labor market reforms increased wage f...

Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience

Distributional Implications of Labor Market Reforms: Learning from Spain's Experience »

Volume/Issue: 2020/29

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ara Stepanyan , and Jorge Salas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526874.001

ISBN: 9781513526874

Keywords: Labor market reforms, Labor market institutions, Labor market policy, Labor policy, Labor productivity, structural reforms, income inequality, social inclusion, synthetic control method, WP

Spain's structural reforms, implemented around 2012, have arguably contributed to a faster and stronger economic recovery. In particular, there is strong evidence that the 2012 labor market reforms increased wage f...

Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore

Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore »

Source: Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore

Volume/Issue: 2020/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Joseph Goh , Heedon Kang , Zhi Xing Koh , Jin Way Lim , Cheng Wei Ng , Galen Sher , and Chris Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513526317

Keywords: Systemically important financial institutions, Financial crises, Financial institutions, Financial systems, Financial services, Cyber risk, financial innovation, systemic risk, stress test., WP

Cyber risk is an emerging source of systemic risk in the financial sector, and possibly a macro-critical risk too. It is therefore important to integrate it into financial sector surveillance. This paper offers a r...

Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore

Cyber Risk Surveillance: A Case Study of Singapore »

Volume/Issue: 2020/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Joseph Goh , Heedon Kang , Zhi Xing Koh , Jin Way Lim , Cheng Wei Ng , Galen Sher , and Chris Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526317.001

ISBN: 9781513526317

Keywords: Systemically important financial institutions, Financial crises, Financial institutions, Financial systems, Financial services, Cyber risk, financial innovation, systemic risk, stress test., WP

Cyber risk is an emerging source of systemic risk in the financial sector, and possibly a macro-critical risk too. It is therefore important to integrate it into financial sector surveillance. This paper offers a r...

Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth?

Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth? »

Source: Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth?

Volume/Issue: 2020/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pritha Mitra , Eric M. Pondi Endengle , Malika Pant , and Luiz Almeida

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528823

Keywords: Economic growth, Economic conditions, Labor force participation, Human capital, Development, Developing Country, Economic Development, Growth, Macroeconomy, Macroeconomic Policy

Global attention to ending child marriage and its socio-economic consequences is gaining momentum. Ending child marriage is not only critical from a development perspective but it also has important economic implic...

Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth?

Does Child Marriage Matter for Growth? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pritha Mitra , Eric M. Pondi Endengle , Malika Pant , and Luiz Almeida

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528823.001

ISBN: 9781513528823

Keywords: Economic growth, Economic conditions, Labor force participation, Human capital, Development, Developing Country, Economic Development, Growth, Macroeconomy, Macroeconomic Policy

Global attention to ending child marriage and its socio-economic consequences is gaining momentum. Ending child marriage is not only critical from a development perspective but it also has important economic implic...

Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel

Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel »

Volume/Issue: 2020/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): JaeBin Ahn , Romain Duval , and Can Sever

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513528571.001

ISBN: 9781513528571

Keywords: Financial crises, Supply and demand, Economic theory, Economic growth, Economic policy, Financial frictions, Intangible investment, Competition, Product Market, Monetary policy

While there is growing evidence of persistent or even permanent output losses from financial crises, the causes remain unclear. One candidate is intangible capital - a rising driver of economic growth that, being n...

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiaqian Chen , and Lucyna Gornicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513527864.001

ISBN: 9781513527864

Keywords: Potential output, Supply and demand, Economic theory, Real interest rates, Business cycles, output gaps, real time estimation, business cycles., WP, output gap

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time proper...

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks »

Volume/Issue: 2020/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nils Mæhle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526850.001

ISBN: 9781513526850

Keywords: Central banking and monetary issues, Bank rates, Financial crises, Financial instruments, Central bank operations, monetary policy operations, monetary targeting, monetary policy transmission, liqudity management, interest rate determination

This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and...

Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel*

Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel* »

Source: Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel

Volume/Issue: 2020/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): JaeBin Ahn , Romain Duval , and Can Sever

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513528571

Keywords: Financial crises, Supply and demand, Economic theory, Economic growth, Economic policy, Financial frictions, Intangible investment, Competition, Product Market, Monetary policy

While there is growing evidence of persistent or even permanent output losses from financial crises, the causes remain unclear. One candidate is intangible capital - a rising driver of economic growth that, being n...

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?

Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time? »

Source: Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?

Volume/Issue: 2020/24

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiaqian Chen , and Lucyna Gornicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513527864

Keywords: Potential output, Supply and demand, Economic theory, Real interest rates, Business cycles, output gaps, real time estimation, business cycles., WP, output gap

We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time proper...

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks

Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks »

Source: Monetary Policy Implementation: Operational Issues for Countries with Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks

Volume/Issue: 2020/26

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nils Mæhle

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 February 2020

ISBN: 9781513526850

Keywords: Central banking and monetary issues, Bank rates, Financial crises, Financial instruments, Central bank operations, monetary policy operations, monetary targeting, monetary policy transmission, liqudity management, interest rate determination

This paper discusses operational issues for countries that want to reform their monetary policy frameworks. It argues that stabilizing short-term interest rates on a day-to-day basis has significant advantages, and...

Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies

Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies »

Source: Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies

Volume/Issue: 2020/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julian Chow

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

ISBN: 9781513526324

Keywords: Real estate prices, Price indexes, Real sector, Supply and demand, Housing prices, Guyana, macroprudential policies, housing market, macroeco-financial stability., WP

Guyana's residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks' housing...

How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?

How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America? »

Source: How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?

Volume/Issue: 2020/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Restrepo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

ISBN: 9781513526836

Keywords: Tax revenue, Fiscal policy, Tax bases, National income accounts, Tax collection, Macroeconomic Policy, Stabilization, Multipliers, WP, e t

This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Rame...

Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies

Guyana: Housing Market and Implications for Macroprudential Policies »

Volume/Issue: 2020/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Julian Chow

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526324.001

ISBN: 9781513526324

Keywords: Real estate prices, Price indexes, Real sector, Supply and demand, Housing prices, Guyana, macroprudential policies, housing market, macroeco-financial stability., WP

Guyana's residential real estate prices have been rising, particularly in the capital city Georgetown, following the discovery of oil in 2015. In line with the growing demand for housing, commercial banks' housing...

How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America?

How Big are Fiscal Multipliers in Latin America? »

Volume/Issue: 2020/17

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jorge Restrepo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513526836.001

ISBN: 9781513526836

Keywords: Tax revenue, Fiscal policy, Tax bases, National income accounts, Tax collection, Macroeconomic Policy, Stabilization, Multipliers, WP, e t

This paper uses the strategy and data of Blanchard and Perotti (BP) to identify fiscal shocks and estimate fiscal multipliers for the United States. With these results, it computes the cumulative multiplier of Rame...

Labor Market Dynamics, Informality and Regulations in Latin America

Labor Market Dynamics, Informality and Regulations in Latin America »

Volume/Issue: 2020/19

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Antonio David , Samuel Pienknagura , and Jorge Roldos

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513523750.001

ISBN: 9781513523750

Keywords: Labor market regulations, Labor market institutions, Labor market characteristics, Labor market friction, Labor markets, Labor Market Adjustments, Informality, Latin America, WP, labor market regulation

Labor markets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are characterized by high levels of informality and relatively rigid regulation. This paper shows that these two features are related and together make the spe...

Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries

Productivity Growth and Value Chains in Four European Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2020/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Izabela Karpowicz , and Nujin Suphaphiphat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513527918.001

ISBN: 9781513527918

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Real sector, Gross domestic product, Labor productivity, Financial crises, Productivity, firms, GVC, WP, TFP

Advanced economies have been witnessing a pronounced slowdown of productivity growth since the global financial crisis that is accompanied in recent years by a withdrawal from trade integration processes. We study...

Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean

Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean »

Volume/Issue: 2020/21</