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World Economic Outlook, April 2018

Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017, but medium-term risks point to challenges for future growth.

World Economic Outlook, April 2018

Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017, but medium-term risks point to challenges for future growth.

Excerpt: The ASEAN Way
			: Sustaining Growth and Stability

New
Excerpt: The ASEAN Way : Sustaining Growth and Stability »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): Ana Corbacho , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2018

Language: ind

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/MCASEAN5IAEX.073

ISBN: MCASEAN5IAEX

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the AFC and the more recent period of unconventional monetary po...

Excerpt: Brazil-Boom, Bust and Road to Recovery

New
Excerpt: Brazil-Boom, Bust and Road to Recovery »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374597.073

ISBN: 9781484374597

A collection of IMF and external research on Brazil's successful growth performance and rapid reductions in poverty and inequality in the decade preceding the global financial crisis, and the equally sharp reversal...

Women in Finance: A Case for Closing Gaps

New
Women in Finance: A Case for Closing Gaps »

Volume/Issue: 2018/5

Series: Staff Discussion Notes

Author(s): Ratna Sahay , and Martin Cihak

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375907.006

ISBN: 9781484375907

Keywords: Bank supervision, Banking, Economic growth, Financial stability, Gender equality, Gender, Financial inclusion, Boards of Directors

Women are underrepresented at all levels of the global financial system, from depositors and borrowers to bank board members and regulators. A new study at the IMF finds that greater inclusion of women as users, p...

Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti

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Managing Reductions in Aid Inflows: Assessing Policy Choices in Haiti »

Volume/Issue: 2018/198

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ioana Moldovan , Marina Rousset , and Chris Walker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370322.001

ISBN: 9781484370322

Keywords: General equilibrium models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Public investment, International reserves, Capital inflows, Low-income developing countries, Haiti, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE); Aid; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Public Investment; Foreign Reserves; Haiti

A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign re...

Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks

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Macroprudential Stress Tests and Policies: Searching for Robust and Implementable Frameworks »

Volume/Issue: 2018/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ron Anderson , Jon Danielsson , Chikako Baba , Udaibir Das , Heedon Kang , and Miguel Segoviano Basurto

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375839.001

ISBN: 9781484375839

Keywords: Macroprudential Stress testing, Macroprudential Policy, Systemic Risk, Financial Stability

Macroprudential stress testing (MaPST) is becoming firmly embedded in the post-crisis policy-frameworks of financial-sectors around the world. MaPSTs can offer quantitative, forward-looking assessments of the resil...

An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions

New
An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2018/205

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Filippo Balestrieri , and Suman Basu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375631.001

ISBN: 9781484375631

Keywords: Capital flows, sudden stop, financial union, heterogeneous regions

We analyze a union of financially-integrated yet politically-sovereign countries, where households in the Northern core of the union lend to those in the Southern periphery in a unified debt market subject to a bor...

The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016

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The Fiscal Cost of Conflict: Evidence from Afghanistan 2005-2016 »

Volume/Issue: 2018/204

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philip Barrett

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374931.001

ISBN: 9781484374931

Keywords: conflict, peace dividend, fiscal policy, AfghanistanI

I use a monthly panel of provincially-collected central government revenues and conflict fatalities to estimate government revenues lost due to conflict in Afghanistan since 2005. I identify causal effects by instr...

Fintech, Inclusive Growth and Cyber Risks: Focus on the MENAP and CCA Regions

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Fintech, Inclusive Growth and Cyber Risks: Focus on the MENAP and CCA Regions »

Volume/Issue: 2018/201

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Inutu Lukonga

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374900.001

ISBN: 9781484374900

Keywords: Fintech, Cyber Risks, Financial Stability, Inclusive Growth and Financial Inclusion

Financial technology (fintech) is emerging as an innovative way to achieve financial inclusion and the broader objective of inclusive growth. Thus far, fintech in the MENAP and CCA remains below potential with limi...

External Audit Arrangements at Central Banks

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External Audit Arrangements at Central Banks »

Volume/Issue: 2018/199

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Atilla Arda , Martin Gororo , Joanna Grochalska , and Mowele Mohlala

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375501.001

ISBN: 9781484375501

Keywords: central banks, external audit, accountability, transparency, audit committee

This paper takes stock of external audit arrangements at central banks. Its focus is on the annual audit of central bank financial statements, as well as legal and institutional measures that support audit quality...

Dollarization and Financial Development

New
Dollarization and Financial Development »

Volume/Issue: 2018/200

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Geoffrey Bannister , Jarkko Turunen , and Malin Gardberg

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373361.001

ISBN: 9781484373361

Keywords: dollarization, financial development, financial deepening, financial inclusion and developing economies

Despite significant strides in financial development over the past decades, financial dollarization, as reflected in elevated shares of foreign currency deposits and credit in the banking system, remains common in...

Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy

New
Cross-Border Credit Intermediation and Domestic Liquidity Provision in a Small Open Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/202

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Thorvardur Olafsson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373354.001

ISBN: 9781484373354

Keywords: financial frictions, cross-border banking flows, macrofinancial linkages, financial intermediation, working capital, credit contracts

This paper develops a small open economy model where global and domestic liquidity is intermediated to the corporate sector through two financial processes. Investment banks intermediate cross-border credit through...

Carbon Taxation for International Maritime Fuels: Assessing the Options

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Carbon Taxation for International Maritime Fuels: Assessing the Options »

Volume/Issue: 2018/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ian Parry , Dirk Heine , Kelley Kizzier , and Tristan Smith

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374559.001

ISBN: 9781484374559

Keywords: Maritime emissions, climate mitigation, carbon tax, revenue-neutral feebate, design issues, spreadsheet model, International Marime Organization.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced in April 2018 a target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector by 50 percent below 2008 levels by 2050 and subsequent meetings of the IMO wi...

Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus

New
Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus »

Volume/Issue: 2018/16

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Giovanni Dell'Ariccia , Caio Ferreira , Nigel Jenkinson , Luc Laeven , Alberto Martin , Camelia Minoiu , and Alex Popov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484359624.087

ISBN: 9781484359624

Keywords: Bank supervision, Public debt, Sovereign debt, Public Debt; Bank supervision;

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source...

Republic of Latvia
			: Selected Issues

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Republic of Latvia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/267

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375310.002

ISBN: 9781484375310

Keywords: Latvia, Europe

Selected Issues...

Republic of Latvia
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia

New
Republic of Latvia : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Latvia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/266

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375242.002

ISBN: 9781484375242

Keywords: Europe, Latvia

The economy has gained momentum amidst sound fundamentals. Growth in 2017 surprised with a strong and broad-based upswing driven by a recovery in investment and a supportive external environment, and the outlook is...

Dominica
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

New
Dominica : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/265

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374788.002

ISBN: 9781484374788

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Dominica

Category 5 Hurricane Maria hit Dominica on September 18, 2017 while it was still recovering from tropical storm Erika, which had damaged the island on August 27, 2015. While Erika had caused severe damage, estimate...

Botswana
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Botswana

New
Botswana : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Botswana »

Volume/Issue: 2018/268

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484375426.002

ISBN: 9781484375426

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Botswana

In recent years, sizable buffers and prudent policies have kept the economy stable despite diamond market weakness and volatility. Nevertheless, the diamond cum public sector-led development model has shown its lim...

Mauritius
			: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Price Statistics Mission

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Mauritius : Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Price Statistics Mission »

Volume/Issue: 2018/262

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 September 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374122.002

ISBN: 9781484374122

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Mauritius

In response to a request from Statistics Mauritius, a technical assistance mission1 took place during March 14-23, 2018 to assess the methodological soundness of all price indexes compiled. These include the produc...

The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach

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The Measurement and Macro-Relevance of Corruption: A Big Data Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2018/195

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sandile Hlatshwayo , Anne Oeking , Manuk Ghazanchyan , David Corvino , Ananya Shukla , and Lamin Leigh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373095.001

ISBN: 9781484373095

Keywords: Corruption, anti-corruption, capacity development, big data, text analysis

Corruption is macro-relevant for many countries, but is often hidden, making measurement of it-and its effects-inherently difficult. Existing indicators suffer from several weaknesses, including a lack of time vari...

Household Wealth and Resilience to Financial Shocks in Italy

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Household Wealth and Resilience to Financial Shocks in Italy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Garcia-Macia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374894.001

ISBN: 9781484374894

Keywords: Europe, Italy, Flow of funds, financial linkages, balance sheet analysis, bail-in, bailout, Portfolio Choice

High household wealth is often cited as a key strength of the Italian economy. Both in absolute terms and relative to income, the Italian household sector is wealthier than most euro area peers. A sizable fraction...

Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries

New
Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/193

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ian Parry , Victor Mylonas , and Nate Vernon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373842.001

ISBN: 9781484373842

Keywords: Paris Agreement, carbon pricing, G20 countries, instrument choice, air pollution mortality, tax incidence, welfare effects, climate mitigation, Government Policy, Environmental Economics: Government Policy

Following submission of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation commitments or pledges (by 190 countries) for the 2015 Paris Agreement, policymakers are considering specific actions for their implementation. To help guide...

Household Leverage and the Recession

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Household Leverage and the Recession »

Volume/Issue: 2018/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Callum Jones , Virgiliu Midrigan , and Thomas Philippon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373866.001

ISBN: 9781484373866

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Financial crises, Great Recession, Household Debt, Regional Evidence, Zero Lower Bound, General

We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage' view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where l...

Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money

New
Monetary Policy with Negative Interest Rates: Decoupling Cash from Electronic Money »

Volume/Issue: 2018/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katrin Assenmacher , and Signe Krogstrup

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370025.001

ISBN: 9781484370025

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Zero lower bound; Monetary policy framework, Dual local currency regime, Legal tender, Zero lower bound, Monetary policy framework, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Monetary policy space remains constrained by the lower bound in many countries, limiting the policy options available to address future deflationary shocks. The existence of cash prevents central banks from cutting...

Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet

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Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet »

Volume/Issue: 2018/190

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ezequiel Cabezon , and Christian Henn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370117.001

ISBN: 9781484370117

Keywords: Europe, Norway, Public Sector Balance Sheet, Intertemporal Fiscal Balances, Debt Sustainability, General, Social Security and Public Pensions, General, Governmental Loans and Credits, Norway

Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norway has saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sector balance sheet analysis comes...

Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

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Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2018/192

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Qianying Chen , Mitsuru Katagiri , and Jay Surti

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373873.001

ISBN: 9781484373873

Keywords: Banking, Interest rates, Growth, Low-for-Long, Prolonged Low Interest Rates, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Firm Performance: Size, Diversification

A prolonged low-interest-rate environment presents a significant challenge to banks and is likely to entail major changes to their business models over the long-run. Lower returns to maturity transformation in the...

Fiscal Transparency, Borrowing Costs, and Foreign Holdings of Sovereign Debt

Fiscal Transparency, Borrowing Costs, and Foreign Holdings of Sovereign Debt »

Volume/Issue: 2018/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laurent Kemoe , and Zaijin Zhan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373835.001

ISBN: 9781484373835

Keywords: Fiscal transparency, International financial markets, Borrowing costs, Emerging market economies, General, General

This paper explores the effects of fiscal transparency on the borrowing costs of 33 emerging and developing economies (EMs), and on foreign demand for their sovereign debt. Using multiple indicators, including a co...

Saudi Arabia
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Saudi Arabia : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/263

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374269.002

ISBN: 9781484374269

Keywords: Middle East, Saudi Arabia

Reform momentum remains strong under Vision 2030. New reform initiatives are being rolled-out under the Vision Realization Programs (VRPs). Oil prices have risen over the past year and are positively affecting fisc...

Saudi Arabia
			: Selected Issues

Saudi Arabia : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/264

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484374382.002

ISBN: 9781484374382

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Middle East

Selected Issues...

Excerpt: Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential

Excerpt: Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): Regional Office for the Asia and the Pacific

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 August 2018

Language: ind

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/DIEPIAEX.073

ISBN: DIEPIAEX

Keywords: Bank Indonesia, Indonesia

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overvie...

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/188

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Li Lin , and Anne-Charlotte Paret

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372562.001

ISBN: 9781484372562

Keywords: Inflation, Phillips curve, inflation persistence and expectations, General, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global...

Malawi
			: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)

Malawi : Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) »

Volume/Issue: 2018/259

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373750.002

ISBN: 9781484373750

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Malawi

The government has highlighted infrastructure development as a key element of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (the MGDS), and has acknowledged the associated fiscal risks. Increasing public investment ha...

Chad
			: Second Review of the Program Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, And Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad

Chad : Second Review of the Program Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, And Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad »

Volume/Issue: 2018/260

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373880.002

ISBN: 9781484373880

Keywords: Chad, Sub-Saharan Africa

The current ECF arrangement (access of 160 percent of quota or SDR 224.32 million) was approved on June 30, 2017 in the context of a very difficult and deteriorating social, economic, and financial situation. The c...

Foreign Direct Investment in New Member State of the EU and Western Balkans: Taking Stock and Assessing Prospects

Foreign Direct Investment in New Member State of the EU and Western Balkans: Taking Stock and Assessing Prospects »

Volume/Issue: 2018/187

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul , and Jesmin Rahman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373323.001

ISBN: 9781484373323

Keywords: Europe, Foreign direct investment, Panel analysis, determinants of FDI, catching-up process, EU New Member States, Western Balkans, gravity model, Performance and Prospects

FDI has played a strong role in the export-led growth of eastern European countries that are now members of the European Union (EU). Largely sourced from advanced Europe, FDI inflows were motivated by the intention...

Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies

Employment Protection Deregulation and Labor Shares in Advanced Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/186

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriele Ciminelli , Romain Duval , and Davide Furceri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370087.001

ISBN: 9781484370087

Keywords: Structural Reforms, Labor Market, Deregulation, Employment Protection; Labor Share, Employment Protection, Labor Share, Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure, Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation

Labor market deregulation, intended to boost productivity and employment, is one plausible, yet little studied, driver of the decline in labor shares that took place across most advanced economies since the early 1...

Namibia
			: Technical Assistance Report-Assessing and Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Entities and Public-Private Partnerships

Namibia : Technical Assistance Report-Assessing and Managing Fiscal Risks from State-Entities and Public-Private Partnerships »

Volume/Issue: 2018/258

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373620.002

ISBN: 9781484373620

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa, Namibia

Following a period of strong growth, the Namibian economy is experiencing a slowdown. Despite efforts from the authorities, there is still limited fiscal space to fund through the budget the large capital programs...

Liechtenstein
			: Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism-Technical Note

Liechtenstein : Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism-Technical Note »

Volume/Issue: 2018/257

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373545.002

ISBN: 9781484373545

Keywords: Europe, Liechtenstein

Liechtenstein has made significant steps and achieved considerable progress since the last mutual evaluation, particularly in bringing its legal framework more closely in line with the Financial Action Task Force (...

Cameroon
			: Selected Issues

Cameroon : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/256

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373378.002

ISBN: 9781484373378

Keywords: Cameroon, Sub-Saharan Africa

Selected Issues...

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: An Appraisal

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: An Appraisal »

Volume/Issue: 2018/185

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nigel Chalk , Michael Keen , and Victoria Perry

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372548.001

ISBN: 9781484372548

Keywords: Tax Policy, Business Tax, Personal Income Tax, International Taxation, Pass-throughs

This paper assesses the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), from the perspective of both the U.S. itself and the wider world. The reform has many positive aspects including steps to broaden the base of, and redu...

Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth

Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth »

Volume/Issue: 2018/184

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Manabu Nose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373088.001

ISBN: 9781484373088

Keywords: Firm growth, misallocation, land market, labor regulations

After a decade of rapid growth, industrialization has lost ground with shrinking manufacturing sector and high informality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper explores how land market and labor regulations affe...

India
			: Selected Issues

India : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/255

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373200.002

ISBN: 9781484373200

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, India

Selected Issues...

India
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India

India : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for India »

Volume/Issue: 2018/254

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484373125.002

ISBN: 9781484373125

Keywords: India, Asia and Pacific

India has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world over the past few years, lifting millions out of poverty. The authorities have initiated important structural reforms to spur India's catch up with mo...

Predicting Fiscal Crises

Predicting Fiscal Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2018/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Svetlana Cerovic , Kerstin Gerling , Andrew Hodge , and Paulo Medas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372555.001

ISBN: 9781484372555

Keywords: Taxation, Low income countries, Debt, Debt management, Fiscal policy, Fiscal crises, Early Warning System, Public Expenditures, Investment, and Finance

This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods...

Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits

Bunching at 3 Percent: The Maastricht Fiscal Criterion and Government Deficits »

Volume/Issue: 2018/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesca Caselli , and Philippe Wingender

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371732.001

ISBN: 9781484371732

Keywords: Fiscal rules, Fiscal policy, bunching estimation, treatment effects, Deficit

This paper estimates the effects of the Maastricht treaty's fiscal criterion on EU countries' general government deficits. We combine treatment effects methods with bunching estimation, and find that the 3 percent...

Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina

Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms Through a Supply-side Framework: The Case of Argentina »

Volume/Issue: 2018/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lusine Lusinyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484362990.001

ISBN: 9781484362990

Keywords: Argentina, Western Hemisphere, Economic growth; structural reforms; productivity; product market competition; labor market reforms; trade openness; Argentina, Economic growth, structural reforms, productivity, product market competition, labor market reforms, trade openness, General

The paper uses a supply-side framework based on a production function approach to assess the role of structural reforms in boosting long-term GDP growth in Argentina. The impact of product, labor, trade, and tax re...

Hungary
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Hungary : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/252

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372371.002

ISBN: 9781484372371

Keywords: Hungary, Europe

Growth rebounded in 2017 and the first half of 2018 on the back of buoyant domestic demand due to the accelerated absorption of EU funds and strong disposable income. External debt declined substantially over the p...

Brazil
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil

Brazil : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brazil »

Volume/Issue: 2018/253

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372449.002

ISBN: 9781484372449

Keywords: Brazil, Western Hemisphere

Recent developments. Following a severe recession in 2015-16, real GDP grew by 1 percent in 2017. Inflation declined below the inflation target range, prompting the Central Bank to cut interest rates to historic lo...

Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts

Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts »

Volume/Issue: 2018/175

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lisbeth Rivas , and Joe Crowley

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371701.001

ISBN: 9781484371701

Keywords: Value added tax, National accounts, Administrative Data, Tax Data, Economic Methodology, Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, General, Accounting and Auditing: Government Policy and Regulation

Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national sta...

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk

The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk »

Volume/Issue: 2018/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian , Federico Grinberg , Nellie Liang , and Sheheryar Malik

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372364.001

ISBN: 9781484372364

Keywords: Financial stability, downside risk, macrofinancial linkages, volatility paradox, quantile regression, General, International Business Cycles

Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)-defined as growt...

Size Dependent Policies, Informality and Misallocation

Size Dependent Policies, Informality and Misallocation »

Volume/Issue: 2018/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Laura Jaramillo , Frederico Lima , and Alexandre Sollaci

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372340.001

ISBN: 9781484372340

Keywords: Productivity, Employment, Underground economy, Unemployment, Wages, size-dependent policies, misallocation, informality, General, Informal Economy

We examine the effect of size-dependent policies in developing economies by focusing on a set of regulations that are applicable to firms with 20 or more formal employees in Peru. Firms can adjust to the regulation...

Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors

Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors »

Volume/Issue: 2018/176

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ashraf Khan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372272.001

ISBN: 9781484372272

Keywords: Central banking, Central banks and their policies, financial supervision, financial regulation, law, liability, immunity, technical assistance, General, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor's independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. Howeve...

Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa

Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ken Miyajima , and James Yetman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372043.001

ISBN: 9781484372043

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Central banks and their policies, South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, decay function, inflation anchoring, inflation targeting

Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or 'implicit anchor', towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts...

A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking

A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking »

Volume/Issue: 2018/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ashraf Khan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372289.001

ISBN: 9781484372289

Keywords: Governance, Central banks and their policies, Remuneration, Central banking, behavior, culture, financial supervision, financial regulation, risk management, behavioral economics

This paper describes how behavioral elements are relevant to financial supervision, regulation, and central banking. It focuses on (1) behavioral effects of norms (social, legal, and market); (2) behavior of others...

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Princípe
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review

Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Princípe : 2018 Article IV Consultation, Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review »

Volume/Issue: 2018/251

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372227.002

ISBN: 9781484372227

Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa

Progress has been made in fiscal consolidation and structural reform in the past year. Nevertheless, the country still faces a high debt level, has a low ratio of tax revenue to GDP, and relies heavily on external...

Colombia
			: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation

Colombia : Fiscal Transparency Evaluation »

Volume/Issue: 2018/250

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484372159.002

ISBN: 9781484372159

Keywords: Colombia, Western Hemisphere

This fiscal transparency evaluation (FTE) assesses fiscal transparency practices in Colombia against the first three pillars of the IMF's Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Pillar I requires that fiscal reports provid...

Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential

Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential »

Series: Books

Author(s): Luis Breuer , Jaime Guajardo , and Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484337141.071

ISBN: 9781484337141

Keywords: Indonesia, Indonesia's economy

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overvie...

International Financial Statistics , August 2018

International Financial Statistics , August 2018 »

Series: International Financial Statistics

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484354148.041

ISBN: 9781484354148

International Financial Statistics, Database & Browser, August 2018...

Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa
			: Exploring Different Channels

Regional Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa : Exploring Different Channels »

Volume/Issue: 2018/1

Series: Spillover Notes

Author(s): Francisco Arizala , Matthieu Bellon , Margaux MacDonald , Montfort Mlachila , and Mustafa Yenice

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367148.062

ISBN: 9781484367148

Keywords: Uganda, Togo, Tanzania, Swaziland, South Sudan, Spillovers, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sierra Leone, Congo, Republic of, Congo, Democratic Republic of the

After close to two decades of strong economic activity, overall growth in sub-Saharan Africa decelerated markedly in 2015-16 as the largest economies experienced negative or flat growth. Regional growth started rec...

Shadow Banking and Market-Based Finance

Shadow Banking and Market-Based Finance »

Volume/Issue: 2018/14

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian , and Bradley Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343883.087

ISBN: 9781484343883

Keywords: Bank credit, Financial intermediation, Nonbank financial institution supervision, Stock exchanges

Variants of nonbank credit intermediation differ greatly. We provide a conceptual framework to help distinguish various characteristics-structural features, economic motivations, and risk implications-associated wi...

Risk Management and Regulation

Risk Management and Regulation »

Volume/Issue: 2018/13

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Tobias Adrian

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343913.087

ISBN: 9781484343913

Keywords: Stock exchanges, Capital movements, Financial risk, Risk management

The evolution of risk management has resulted from the interplay of financial crises, risk management practices, and regulatory actions. In the 1970s, research lay the intellectual foundations for the risk manageme...

Greece
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece

Greece : 2018 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece »

Volume/Issue: 2018/248

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371817.002

ISBN: 9781484371817

Keywords: Greece, Europe

Greece has stabilized its economy and begun to grow. The authorities deserve credit for largely eliminating macroeconomic imbalances, including via a significant fiscal adjustment, and for many other reforms undert...

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa

Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/173

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alain Kabundi , and Montfort Mlachila

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371671.001

ISBN: 9781484371671

Keywords: South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Central banks and their policies, Exchange rate pass-through, monetary policy credibility, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting...

South Africa
			: Selected Issues

South Africa : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/247

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371473.002

ISBN: 9781484371473

Keywords: South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

Selected Issues...

South Africa
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa

South Africa : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2018/246

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371411.002

ISBN: 9781484371411

Keywords: South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa

Reflecting slow progress on reforms, weakened governance, and elevated policy uncertainty, growth remains subdued. With the economy unable to create enough jobs, the quest for inclusive growth has been elusive, mak...

Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

Twin Deficits in Developing Economies »

Volume/Issue: 2018/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Davide Furceri , and Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484364000.001

ISBN: 9781484364000

Keywords: Fiscal policy, Current account, Twin Deficits, Developing Economies, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the 'twin deficits' in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, o...

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth »

Volume/Issue: 2018/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Fagereng , Luigi Guiso , Davide Malacrino , and Luigi Pistaferri

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370063.001

ISBN: 9781484370063

Keywords: Wealth inequality, returns to wealth, net worth, heterogeneity, intergenerational mobility

We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway's administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, durin...

Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia

Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/172

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Serkan Arslanalp , Jaewoo Lee , and Umang Rawat

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370308.001

ISBN: 9781484370308

Keywords: demographics, interest rates, capital account openness

Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest ra...

Singapore
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore

Singapore : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore »

Volume/Issue: 2018/245

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371343.002

ISBN: 9781484371343

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Singapore

Singapore's economy is on a strong cyclical upswing. Economic growth has recovered to a three-year high, led by externally-oriented sectors that benefitted from the synchronized global expansion. Economic momentum...

World Economic Outlook, April 2018
			: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

World Economic Outlook, April 2018 : Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

Language: Russian

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352618.081

ISBN: 9781484352618

Keywords: Economic growth, Production growth, Population growth, Manufacturing, Manufacturing sector, Information technology, Technology transfer, Spillovers, Innovation spillovers, Labor force participation

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017. At 3.8 percent, global growth in 2017 was the fastest since 2011. With financial conditions still supportive, global growth is expect...

World Economic Outlook, April 2018
			: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

World Economic Outlook, April 2018 : Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change »

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

Language: Spanish

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352625.081

ISBN: 9781484352625

Keywords: Economic growth, Information technology, Manufacturing, Manufacturing sector, Production growth, Spillovers, Technology transfer, Innovation spillovers, Labor force participation, Population growth

The upswing in global investment and trade continued in the second half of 2017. At 3.8 percent, global growth in 2017 was the fastest since 2011. With financial conditions still supportive, global growth is expect...

Slovak Republic
			: Selected Issues

Slovak Republic : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/242

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370940.002

ISBN: 9781484370940

Keywords: Europe, Slovak Republic

Selected Issues...

Slovak Republic
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for the Slovak Republic

Slovak Republic : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for the Slovak Republic »

Volume/Issue: 2018/241

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370896.002

ISBN: 9781484370896

Keywords: Slovak Republic, Europe

The Slovak economy is enjoying consecutive years of favorable performance marked by robust real per capita GDP growth, record-low unemployment and sustained improvement in fiscal balances. However, shortages of ski...

People's Republic of China
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China »

Volume/Issue: 2018/240

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370797.002

ISBN: 9781484370797

Keywords: Asia and Pacific

China is at an historic juncture. After decades of high-speed growth, the authorities are now focusing on high-quality growth. Whether and how this shift is carried through will determine China's development path f...

France
			: Selected Issues

France : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/244

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371138.002

ISBN: 9781484371138

Keywords: Europe, France

Selected Issues...

France
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France

France : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France »

Volume/Issue: 2018/243

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371053.002

ISBN: 9781484371053

Keywords: France, Europe

In a favorable global conjuncture, France has benefitted from a broad-based recovery last year, with robust growth and improving labor market trends, which have led to a decline in the fiscal deficit below 3 percen...

People's Republic of China
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for the People's Republic of China »

Volume/Issue: 2018/240

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

Language: Chinese

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484371190.002

ISBN: 9781484371190

China is at an historic juncture. After decades of high-speed growth, the authorities are now focusing on high-quality growth. Whether and how this shift is carried through will determine China's development path f...

Republic of Madagascar
			: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar

Republic of Madagascar : Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar »

Volume/Issue: 2018/239

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370704.002

ISBN: 9781484370704

Keywords: Madagascar, Sub-Saharan Africa

The gradual economic recovery in this fragile state has persisted, with solid growth for the second consecutive year. Fiscal performance has been strong, inflation contained, and the external position robust. Imple...

Peru
			: Financial System Stability Assessment

Peru : Financial System Stability Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/238

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370667.002

ISBN: 9781484370667

Keywords: Peru, Western Hemisphere

Peru's financial system has developed and become more resilient since the previous FSAP in 2011, but some challenges remain. Peru's main vulnerabilities are external, especially related to growth in trading partner...

Peru
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru

Peru : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru »

Volume/Issue: 2018/225

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369203.002

ISBN: 9781484369203

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Peru

Peru has been one of the top performers in Latin America since the turn of the century: robust growth has helped close the income gap with the largest regional economies and reduce poverty significantly. Last year,...

Grenada
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada

Grenada : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Grenada »

Volume/Issue: 2018/236

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370223.002

ISBN: 9781484370223

Keywords: Grenada, Western Hemisphere

Grenada made important strides under the 2014-17 ECF-supported program, achieving an impressive debt reduction by 37 percent of GDP since 2013, upgrading the framework for fiscal policy, strengthening the financial...

Excerpt: The ASEAN Way
			: Sustaining Growth and Stability

Excerpt: The ASEAN Way : Sustaining Growth and Stability »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): Ana Corbacho , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/MCASEAN5EAEX.073

ISBN: MCASEAN5EAEX

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the AFC and the more recent period of unconventional monetary po...

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies?

Is Unemployment on Steroids in Advanced Economies? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/169

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Di Bella , Francesco Grigoli , and Francisco Ramirez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367490.001

ISBN: 9781484367490

Keywords: Unemployment, Advanced economies, hysteresis, panel VAR, persistence, unit root

Despite conventional macroeconomic theory is based on the idea that demand shocks can only have temporary effects on unemployment, several European economies display highly persistent unemployment dynamics. The the...

Republic of Serbia
			: Request for a 30-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Serbia

Republic of Serbia : Request for a 30-Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Serbia »

Volume/Issue: 2018/237

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370490.002

ISBN: 9781484370490

Keywords: Europe, Serbia

Serbia succeeded in addressing macroeconomic imbalances and restoring confidence and growth under the precautionary SBA which expired in February 2018. Fiscal sustainability has been restored by placing public debt...

International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review of the Channels, Magnitudes, and Blind Spots

International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review of the Channels, Magnitudes, and Blind Spots »

Volume/Issue: 2018/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Beer , Ruud A. Mooij , and Li Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484363997.001

ISBN: 9781484363997

Keywords: Corporate taxation, Corporate taxation; Multinationals; Profit shifting; International tax avoidance; Meta analysis, Multinationals, Profit shifting, International tax avoidance, Meta analysis, Business Taxes and Subsidies

This paper reviews the rapidly growing empirical literature on international tax avoidance by multinational corporations. It surveys evidence on main channels of corporate tax avoidance including transfer mispricin...

External Sector Report, July 2018
			: Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions

External Sector Report, July 2018 : Tackling Global Imbalances amid Rising Trade Tensions »

Series: External Sector Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367360.085

ISBN: 9781484367360

Keywords: Capital flows, Current account, Exchange rates, Reserves, G20

The External Sector Report presents a methodologically consistent assessment of the exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets of the world's largest economies. The 2018...

Excerpt: Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic

Excerpt: Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic »

Series: Miscellaneous Publication (Other)

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484370315.073

ISBN: 9781484370315

This is an excerpt from Paving the Way to Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic edited by Kimberly Beaton, Roberto Garcia Saltos, and Lorenzo Figliuoli. Over the past three de...

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets
			: Experience from the African Department's Pilot Countries

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets : Experience from the African Department's Pilot Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/12

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484361498.087

ISBN: 9781484361498

Keywords: Financial risk, Sub-Saharan Africa, Financial markets, Low income countries, Financial inclusion, Shallow Financial Markets; Risk; Financial Inclusion, Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-fi...

Guinea
			: First Review of the Arrangement Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Modification and for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea

Guinea : First Review of the Arrangement Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Modification and for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea »

Volume/Issue: 2018/234

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369913.002

ISBN: 9781484369913

Keywords: Guinea, Sub-Saharan Africa

The Guinean economy is growing at a faster than anticipated pace on the back of buoyant mining activity. The growth momentum is expected to continue, with real growth at about 6 percent in 2018 and over the medium...

Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations

Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations »

Volume/Issue: 2018/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Angel Garcia , and Sebastian Werner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484363010.001

ISBN: 9781484363010

Keywords: Inflation, Monetary policy, Central banks and their policies, market-based inflation expectations, macroeconomic news, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sens...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Detailed Assessment of Observance of Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision »

Volume/Issue: 2018/233

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369715.002

ISBN: 9781484369715

The SSM (SSM) has made a solid start. Set up a little over three years ago, the SSM has developed into a coherent banking supervision mechanism operating across the 19 Euro Area Member States. Banking supervision a...

Euro Area Policies
			: Selected Issues

Euro Area Policies : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/224

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484368961.002

ISBN: 9781484368961

Selected Issues...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial System Stability Assessment

Euro Area Policies : Financial System Stability Assessment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/226

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369272.002

ISBN: 9781484369272

Overall the resilience of large euro area banks has improved, but important vulnerabilities remain. Capital buffers are in aggregate sizeable relative to immediate threats, but some banks are especially vulnerable...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management »

Volume/Issue: 2018/232

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369661.002

ISBN: 9781484369661

The euro area (EA) bank resolution and crisis management arrangements have been strengthened considerably over recent years, but work remains to complete and unify the regime. The adoption of the Bank Recovery and...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking Sector

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing the Banking Sector »

Volume/Issue: 2018/228

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369401.002

ISBN: 9781484369401

The FSAP team undertook a thorough top-down stress testing analysis using end-2017 data. This note covers the methodology and results of the scenario-based solvency tests, the single factor sensitivity tests, and t...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance, Investment Firm, and Macroprudential Oversight

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance, Investment Firm, and Macroprudential Oversight »

Volume/Issue: 2018/230

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369531.002

ISBN: 9781484369531

While national authorities are still largely responsible for supervising the nonbank sector and applying the macroprudential framework, European Union (EU)-level organizations' supervisory role is growing. Further...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Liquidity Management

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Liquidity Management »

Volume/Issue: 2018/229

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369487.002

ISBN: 9781484369487

The flexibility shown by the ECB/Eurosystem in adapting its framework, as required by circumstances, has helped improve funding and liquidity conditions. Compared to the situation pre-crisis, the ECB/Eurosystem has...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision and Oversight of Central Counterparties and Central Securities Depositories

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision and Oversight of Central Counterparties and Central Securities Depositories »

Volume/Issue: 2018/227

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369319.002

ISBN: 9781484369319

Regulation, supervision, and oversight of central counterparties (CCPs) and central securities depositories (CSDs) in the euro area is evolving. Recent proposed amendments to the European Market Infrastructure Regu...

Euro Area Policies
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries

Euro Area Policies : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Member Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2018/223

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484368954.002

ISBN: 9781484368954

This is a time to strengthen the resilience of the euro area and raise its long-term growth potential. Despite the recent slowdown and coming end of quantitative easing, growth remains strong and monetary condition...

Euro Area Policies
			: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Analysis

Euro Area Policies : Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Risk Analysis »

Volume/Issue: 2018/231

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484369586.002

ISBN: 9781484369586

This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based inte...

Guyana
			: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report

Guyana : 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report »

Volume/Issue: 2018/220

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484367957.002

ISBN: 9781484367957

Keywords: Guyana, Western Hemisphere

Economic growth slowed down, but became more broad-based. In 2017, real GDP growth was 2.1 percent, with the non-mining GDP rebounding from its contraction in 2016. The external balance turned negative due to weake...

Canada
			: Selected Issues

Canada : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2018/222

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484368398.002

ISBN: 9781484368398

Keywords: Canada, Western Hemisphere

Selected Issues...