Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries : A "Fan-Chart" Approach »
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Oya Celasun , Xavier Debrun , and Jonathan Ostry
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 March 2006
Keywords: Public debt sustainability, fiscal reaction function, risk analysis, fan charts, public debt, equation, correlation, fiscal reaction, National Deficit Surplus, Simulation Methods,
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result...