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International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Two aspects of the international monetary system are examined in this chapter. The first part of the chapter deals with exchange rate arrangements and exchange market policies of members and concludes with a section on the Fund’s recent experience with surveillance over members’ exchange rate policies. The second part of the chapter, concerned with international liquidity and reserves, describes recent developments in the level, composition, and distribution of international reserves, as well as the role of international credit markets in balance of payments financing. The chapter ends with a review of the provision of conditional and unconditional liquidity by the Fund.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This chapter reviews the principal activities of the Fund during the financial year ended April 30, 1982. These activities relate to financial policies, operations and transactions, surveillance over members’ exchange rate policies, consultations with member countries, training and technical assistance, and relations with other international organizations.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

World economic developments during 1981 and the first half of 1982 were marked by signs of progress in the difficult fight against inflation. Despite this favorable aspect, the general situation at mid-1982 remained troublesome, posing major challenges to economic policy for both national governments and international institutions.

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

While the Fund welcomes many developments in the world economy—including the healthy growth in output and investment in industrial countries and the narrowing of trade imbalances among them—it is concerned about other aspects of the global situation. Among the developing countries, the inadequate growth of output and investment, continuing problems with fiscal positions and inflation, and the persistence of debt-servicing difficulties are worrisome. In many industrial countries, fiscal deficits need to be reduced, and adjustment of external imbalances must be reinforced. All countries require vigorous structural reforms to reduce trade distortions and to improve efficiency. Further intensified and sustained policy coordination among the major industrial countries—supported by the use of economic indicators—can help improve global economic performance and the functioning of the international monetary system.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Fund fulfills its surveillance mandate in two key ways: by examining each member’s policies and performance and through regular discussions of the world economic outlook. In its latest review, the Executive Board recognized that the scope of surveillance had broadened to include structural and other issues relevant to understanding broad macroeconomic developments and the context in which macroeconomic policies are formulated and implemented.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Ukrainian authorities have been able to restore macro-economic stability and growth following the severe economic crisis of 2014–15. However, efforts to create a more dynamic, open, and competitive economy have fallen short of expectations, and the economy still faces important challenges. Investment, particularly foreign direct investment, is held back by a difficult business environment, while large numbers of worker seek job opportunities abroad as economic growth is too low for incomes to noticeably close the gap with regional peers. Reserves have recovered, but remain relatively low, while the economy is still vulnerable to shocks.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Russia entered 2014 with declining potential growth owing to the stabilization of oil prices, stalled structural reforms, weak investment, declining total factor productivity, and adverse population dynamics. In addition, the ongoing slowdown was exacerbated by the dual external shocks from the sharp decline in oil prices and sanctions. The authorities took measures to stabilize the economy and the financial system. Russia is expected to be in recession in 2015 owing to the sharp drop in oil prices and sanctions. Growth should resume in 2016 while inflation continues to decline.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on the portfolio-balance model as a framework for addressing unresolved issues about the behavior of exchange rates. The stocks of base money and bonds are determined by the interactions of monetary policies, government budget deficits, and official exchange market interventions. A home-country current account surplus that shifts the residence of private wealth toward the home country will reduce the risk premium on domestic currency, ceteris paribus, if and only if private residents of the home country have a relatively stronger preference for domestic bonds than do private residents of the foreign country. The basic conclusion that has been drawn from the regression analysis is that the risk premiums associated with this particular representation of the portfolio-balance model explain only a small part of the discrepancies between observed percentage changes in exchange rates and forward premiums. Part of the difficulty in obtaining structural estimates of portfolio-demand parameters may reflect deficiencies in specifying the portfolio-balance framework.
Hesham Alogeel and Maher Hasan
This paper investigates the factors that affect inflation in the GCC region by examining the inflationary processes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The paper utilizes a model that accounts for foreign factors affecting inflation, such as trading partners' inflation and exchange rate pass-through effect, as well as domestic influences. The analysis concludes that, in the long run, higher inflation in trading partners' countries is the main driving force for inflation in the two countries, with significant but lower contributions from the exchange rate pass-through effect and oil prices. Demand and money supply shocks affect inflation in the short run.