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Thomas A. Wolf, Branko Milanovic, Anand Chandavarkar, Mr. Karl F Habermeier, Guy Pfeffermann, Pierre Landell-Mills, and Mr. Alan A. Tait

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.

IVO J.M. ARNOLD

This paper focuses on exchange rate economics. Two main views of exchange rate determination have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flexible-price, sticky-price, and real interest differential formulations); and the portfolio balance approach. In this paper, the literature on these views is surveyed, followed by a discussion of the empirical evidence and likely future developments in the area of exchange rate determination. The literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, exchange rates and “news,” and international parity conditions is also reviewed.

MOHSIN S. KHAN

This paper outlines the theoretical framework and presents the results of a short-term model constructed for forecasting the Venezuelan economy. The explicit purpose was to provide a relatively simple aggregate demand model that would forecast the behavior of key macro-economic variables in Venezuela and would also show the effects of monetary policy on these variables. Since the model centers on the monetary aspects of income and balance of payments determination, it can be described as a “monetary model.”1

IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, and Enrique Flores

For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.