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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Bank for International Settlements

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Bank for International Settlements

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Notwithstanding the deceleration in global activity in late 2011 and weaker growth prospects (see the April 2012 World Economic Outlook), fiscal deficits in most advanced economies are projected to continue to decline in 2012 (Table 1). Headline deficits will fall by almost 1 percentage point of GDP among the advanced economies, as countries unwind fiscal stimulus and, in a few cases, implement austerity measures in response to market pressures. At about 1 percentage point of GDP, deficit reduction in cyclically adjusted terms would be slightly higher than that implemented in 2011. In many cases, the challenge will be to ensure continued progress toward sound public finances while avoiding an excessive fiscal drag on activity. Gross financing needs are expected to decline only slightly, hovering around 25 percent of GDP per year over the coming three years in advanced economies, as lower deficits are offset by higher rollover requirements on a larger maturing debt stock (Table 2).

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Notwithstanding the deceleration in global activity in late 2011 and weaker growth prospects (see the April 2012 World Economic Outlook), fiscal deficits in most advanced economies are projected to continue to decline in 2012 (Table 1). Headline deficits will fall by almost 1 percentage point of GDP among the advanced economies, as countries unwind fiscal stimulus and, in a few cases, implement austerity measures in response to market pressures. At about 1 percentage point of GDP, deficit reduction in cyclically adjusted terms would be slightly higher than that implemented in 2011. In many cases, the challenge will be to ensure continued progress toward sound public finances while avoiding an excessive fiscal drag on activity. Gross financing needs are expected to decline only slightly, hovering around 25 percent of GDP per year over the coming three years in advanced economies, as lower deficits are offset by higher rollover requirements on a larger maturing debt stock (Table 2).

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Fiscal policy has recently gained prominence, both in public debate and in governments’ policy agendas (Figure 1.1). A reassessment of fiscal policy is taking place, stressing its greater role in fostering sustainable and inclusive growth and smoothing the economic cycle. At the same time, the high uncertainty surrounding the outlook and high levels of public debt require a better understanding and managing of fiscal risks. Therefore, fiscal policy has the difficult task of achieving more and better in a more constrained environment. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor shows how the evolution of the debate on fiscal policy can shed new light on fiscal developments and help frame policy recommendations to countries.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Fiscal policy has recently gained prominence, both in public debate and in governments’ policy agendas (Figure 1.1). A reassessment of fiscal policy is taking place, stressing its greater role in fostering sustainable and inclusive growth and smoothing the economic cycle. At the same time, the high uncertainty surrounding the outlook and high levels of public debt require a better understanding and managing of fiscal risks. Therefore, fiscal policy has the difficult task of achieving more and better in a more constrained environment. This issue of the Fiscal Monitor shows how the evolution of the debate on fiscal policy can shed new light on fiscal developments and help frame policy recommendations to countries.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

A moderate and uneven recovery is taking place in advanced economies, supported by lower oil prices, continued accommodative monetary policy, and slower fiscal adjustment. However, high public and private debt levels continue to pose headwinds to growth and debt sustainability in some advanced economies. In addition, inflation is below target by a large margin in many countries, making the task of reducing high public debt levels more difficult. Growth in emerging market economies is softening, and financial and exchange rate volatility has increased public financing costs for some of them. Meanwhile, lower oil and commodity revenues have created challenges for exporting countries.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

A moderate and uneven recovery is taking place in advanced economies, supported by lower oil prices, continued accommodative monetary policy, and slower fiscal adjustment. However, high public and private debt levels continue to pose headwinds to growth and debt sustainability in some advanced economies. In addition, inflation is below target by a large margin in many countries, making the task of reducing high public debt levels more difficult. Growth in emerging market economies is softening, and financial and exchange rate volatility has increased public financing costs for some of them. Meanwhile, lower oil and commodity revenues have created challenges for exporting countries.

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Fiscal policy is often used to smooth fluctuations in economic activity, particularly in advanced economies. Because it reduces macroeconomic volatility, fiscal policy can boost real GDP growth. Specifically, a plausible increase in fiscal stabilization—measured as the sensitivity of the overall budget balance to the output gap—could boost annual growth rates by 0.1 percentage point in developing economies and 0.3 percentage point in advanced economies. Automatic stabilizers are an important component of fiscal stabilization, but many countries tend to suppress their impact in good times, leading to a significant buildup of public debt. Fiscal frameworks that promote fiscal stabilization through the cycle can foster more stable and higher growth while supporting debt sustainability. Countries seeking higher fiscal stabilization should avoid undermining automatic stabilizers with procyclical measures. Those seeking to enhance automatic stabilizers should do so without unduly increasing the size of the public sector or creating undesirable distortions (such as high marginal tax rates).

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

Fiscal policy is often used to smooth fluctuations in economic activity, particularly in advanced economies. Because it reduces macroeconomic volatility, fiscal policy can boost real GDP growth. Specifically, a plausible increase in fiscal stabilization—measured as the sensitivity of the overall budget balance to the output gap—could boost annual growth rates by 0.1 percentage point in developing economies and 0.3 percentage point in advanced economies. Automatic stabilizers are an important component of fiscal stabilization, but many countries tend to suppress their impact in good times, leading to a significant buildup of public debt. Fiscal frameworks that promote fiscal stabilization through the cycle can foster more stable and higher growth while supporting debt sustainability. Countries seeking higher fiscal stabilization should avoid undermining automatic stabilizers with procyclical measures. Those seeking to enhance automatic stabilizers should do so without unduly increasing the size of the public sector or creating undesirable distortions (such as high marginal tax rates).