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Dambisa Moyo, Michael Clemens, and Deena Khatkhate

Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Following are edited excerpts from the closing press conference by Ahmed Macki, Chair of the Annual Meetings; Horst Köhler, IMF Managing Director; and James Wolfensohn, World Bank President, held on September 29. The full text of the press conference is available on the IMF’s website (www.imf.org).

Mr. Robert P Flood

The paper discusses a model in which growth is a negative function of fiscal burden. Moreover, growth discontinuously switches from high to low as the fiscal burden reaches a critical level. The paper provides an overview of key elements of corporate bankruptcy codes and practice around the world that are relevant to the debate on sovereign debt restructuring. It also describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and explains the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets.

Mr. Luc E. Leruth, R. Paris, and Mr. I. Ruzicka

This paper examines the role and impact of taxation on sustainable forest management. It is shown that fiscal instruments neither reinforce nor substitute for traditional regulatory approaches and can actually undermine sustainability. The paper uses the reasoning at the root of the Faustmann solution to draw conclusions on the incentives for sustainable tropical forest exploitation. It proposes a bond mechanism as an alternative market-based instrument to encourage sustainable forest logging while reducing monitoring costs.

Mr. Gabrielle Lipworth and Mr. Jens Nystedt

Efforts at crisis resolution that succeed in reducing potential inefficiencies and instability in the international financial system are in the interest of both the private and the public sectors. This paper focuses on how the private sector is likely to adapt to the recent initiatives by the official sector to further involve the private sector in the resolution of crises. The key conclusion is that recent experiences with payment suspensions and bond restructurings are limited as guides to determining the future success or failures of these initiatives, because the private sector most likely has adapted in order to minimize any unwanted involvement.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

The modest economic recovery that appeared to be under way in Japan in early 2000 in the context of the buoyant global economy has now given way to renewed weakness. While real GDP grew by 1½ percent in 2000, the economy has slowed sharply this year as the high-tech-driven expansion succumbed to the U.S. and global electronics slowdown. Industrial production and exports have fallen by 9½ percent and 12½ percent, respectively, over the past year (see chart, this page); equity prices have declined by 32 percent to 17-year lows; the unemployment rate has risen to 5 percent; and deflationary pressures have continued, with underlying consumer prices currently declining by around ¾ of 1 percent (12-month basis) (see chart, page 292).