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Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

While the Fund welcomes many developments in the world economy—including the healthy growth in output and investment in industrial countries and the narrowing of trade imbalances among them—it is concerned about other aspects of the global situation. Among the developing countries, the inadequate growth of output and investment, continuing problems with fiscal positions and inflation, and the persistence of debt-servicing difficulties are worrisome. In many industrial countries, fiscal deficits need to be reduced, and adjustment of external imbalances must be reinforced. All countries require vigorous structural reforms to reduce trade distortions and to improve efficiency. Further intensified and sustained policy coordination among the major industrial countries—supported by the use of economic indicators—can help improve global economic performance and the functioning of the international monetary system.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Fund fulfills its surveillance mandate in two key ways: by examining each member’s policies and performance and through regular discussions of the world economic outlook. In its latest review, the Executive Board recognized that the scope of surveillance had broadened to include structural and other issues relevant to understanding broad macroeconomic developments and the context in which macroeconomic policies are formulated and implemented.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper focuses on the portfolio-balance model as a framework for addressing unresolved issues about the behavior of exchange rates. The stocks of base money and bonds are determined by the interactions of monetary policies, government budget deficits, and official exchange market interventions. A home-country current account surplus that shifts the residence of private wealth toward the home country will reduce the risk premium on domestic currency, ceteris paribus, if and only if private residents of the home country have a relatively stronger preference for domestic bonds than do private residents of the foreign country. The basic conclusion that has been drawn from the regression analysis is that the risk premiums associated with this particular representation of the portfolio-balance model explain only a small part of the discrepancies between observed percentage changes in exchange rates and forward premiums. Part of the difficulty in obtaining structural estimates of portfolio-demand parameters may reflect deficiencies in specifying the portfolio-balance framework.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Annual Report to the Board of Governors reviews the IMF’s activities and policies during any given year. There are five chapters: (1) Overview, (2) Developments in the Global Economy and Financial Markets, (3) Policies to Secure Sustained and Balanced Global Growth, (4) Reforming and Strengthening the IMF to Better Support Member Countries, and (5) Finances, Organization, and Accountability. The full financial statements for the year are published separately and are also available, along with appendixes and other supplementary materials.

Ara Stepanyan, Agustin Roitman, Gohar Minasyan, Ms. Dragana Ostojic, and Mr. Natan P. Epstein
In the face of sharply lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions and sanctions, economic activity in Russia decelerated in late 2014, resulting in negative spillovers on Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and, to a lesser extent, on Baltic countries. The spillovers to eastern Europe have been limited. The degree of impact is commensurate with the level of these countries’ trade, remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) links with Russia. So far, policy action by the affected countries has focused on mitigating the immediate consequences of spillovers.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

World economic growth declined to 2 percent in 1990 from 3¼ percent in 1989. Growth slowed in the industrial countries, as well as in Africa, and economic activity declined in the developing countries of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Western Hemisphere (Table 1). The crisis in the Middle East and restructuring in Eastern Europe affected the global economic picture. The rate of growth of world trade also slowed, falling to about 4 percent in 1990 from 7 percent in 1989. Consumer price inflation increased to 5 percent in 1990 from 4½ percent in 1989 in the industrial countries and rose from 80 percent to 90 percent in the developing countries, largely owing both to the temporary rise in oil prices and price developments in a small number of high-inflation countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Hemisphere. Oil prices surged in August and September 1990 and then dropped rapidly in January. Net external borrowing of the net debtor developing countries rose to some $60 billion in 1990.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The world economy performed strongly in many respects in 1988 and early 1989. On the domestic front, output growth in industrial countries exceeded expectations, but inflation was up a little. Tighter monetary policies were associated with a rise in interest rates; progress toward fiscal balance was generally modest. Developing countries as a group experienced one of their highest rates of growth in the past decade, mostly because of buoyant exports of manufactures by Asian economies. Inflation accelerated in developing countries, especially in those that are having difficulties servicing their debt. Some countries achieved considerable fiscal adjustment, but others continued with unsustainable fiscal deficits. The structural adjustment policies being implemented in a number of countries should help to reduce impediments to higher future growth.