Browse

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 139 items for :

  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
Clear All
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The MENAP oil exporters were directly affected by the global financial crisis through a sharp drop in oil prices, a contraction in the global economy, and a sudden drying up of capital inflows. Although activity in the oil sector will likely drop by 3.5 percent in 2009, strong countercyclical macroeconomic policies have helped mitigate the impact of the crisis on the non-oil sector, which is projected to grow by 3.2 percent. Looking ahead, higher oil prices, a revival of global demand, and continued government spending will provide the basis for stronger growth in 2010. The crisis also revealed some vulnerabilities in the banking and corporate sectors, requiring countries to undertake exceptional stabilization measures and highlighting the need to strengthen financial sector supervision, enhance corporate governance, foster resource mobilization, and diversify risks.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

With the recovery in oil prices, MENAP oil exporters will experience visible improvements in fiscal and external balances during 2010–11. Non-oil activity is set to pick up, although more gradually, with lackluster private demand offset by supportive policies. In many countries, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be appropriate over the coming year, but with a closer eye on emerging inflationary pressures. Beyond 2011, fiscal consolidation should be under way in virtually all countries to enable them to confront the medium-term challenges of ensuring a sustainable use of hydrocarbon revenues and supporting private-sector development. Financial sector priorities should focus on reducing cyclicality in bank lending, strengthening liquidity standards, addressing systemically important institutions, and improving bank resolution frameworks, while creating conditions for more forceful and effective supervision. Specific strategies will depend on each country’s stage of banking development and the degree to which it has been affected by the global financial crisis.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

After holding up well in early 2008, growth slowed markedly in Europe, mainly owing to the ongoing impact of external shocks. Inflation rose to levels not seen in a decade, but with commodity prices stabilizing and the prospect of very weak activity, inflationary pressures are expected to recede. Advanced economies have been hit by extraordinary financial stress whose alleviation has become the overriding policy concern. For most emerging economies, where resource pressures continue even though growth is moderating, the principal challenges are to bring inflation under control and address external imbalances. Meanwhile, contingency plans need to be prepared to deal with possible financial instability.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The surge in commodity prices has boosted headline inflation across Europe. Analysis in this chapter focuses on the risks to inflation. Though some rigidities remain, improved labor market flexibility, the weakening economy, and strong monetary policy credibility should help limit second-round effects in the advanced economies. The risks of spillovers of price pressures to a broad range of consumption goods are greater in the emerging economies, where food and fuel account for a substantial share of consumption.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

MENAP oil importers withstood the 2008–09 global financial crisis well, having effectively used their limited room for countercyclical macroeconomic policy. As their economies have gained strength, these countries are now in a position to begin consolidating their fiscal positions. The overriding longer-term challenge remains that of creating enough jobs for a rapidly expanding population. To this end, improving the region’s competitiveness and reorienting trade toward faster-growing emerging markets are key, at a time when traditional European trading partners are growing more slowly.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

The MENAP oil importers are a diverse group, encompassing both emerging and low-income economies. Many have seen significant slowdowns in the past year but, overall, these countries have escaped the substantial contractions experienced in other parts of the world. Supportive policy responses, a low degree of integration with international capital markets and manufacturing supply chains, and banking systems that had little exposure to structured financial products have contained the fallout. While the slowdown has been modest, this group of countries is also likely to experience a slow recovery. Limited external financing, little space for fiscal stimulus, a real appreciation of most domestic currencies, sluggish receipts from tourism and remittances, and higher energy prices will all continue to be a drag on growth for some time.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

In virtually all countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), the recovery, helped by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment, has gained firm momentum. The outlook is broadly positive, but risks are largely on the downside and, in certain countries, it will take some time for per-capita disposable income to return to pre-2009 levels. Exit from fiscal stimulus has commenced in most CCA countries and will continue in 2011. Banking sector balance sheets remain impaired in several countries, including Kazakhstan, requiring continued policy attention. Some oil and gas importers face large current account deficits and rising external debt levels that need to be reined in to preserve external sustainability. To expand the macroeconomic policy tool kit, the effectiveness of monetary policy will need to be enhanced. Gradually moving toward greater exchange rate flexibility would help in this regard. The recent spike in international wheat prices is likely to adversely affect poor households that rely on wheat-related products. Over the medium term, removing barriers to intraregional trade will help raise the region’s growth potential.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

For many countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, the impact of the global economic downturn has been severe, but prospects for energy importers and exporters differ starkly. For energy importers, the economic outlook remains challenging and recovery in 2010 is likely to be gradual, primarily because of their linkages with Russia. In particular, remittances have fallen sharply, hurting low-income households. Fiscal policy should remain accommodative in 2010 to support growth and mitigate the impact on the poor, but continued concessional donor support will be needed to prevent a buildup of unsustainable debt levels.