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International Monetary Fund

The Selected Issues paper analyzes the determinants of growth in Albania, the macroeconomic underpinnings for growth, the role of remittances in the economy, and the policy response to rapid credit growth. It also analyzes the official estimates with estimates from various macroeconomic surveys, and discusses the implications for the structure of the balance of payments. It also provides a framework for analyzing the budgetary impact of remittances in Albania, and examines the acceleration of credit growth and the policy options available to address the resulting macroeconomic and prudential concerns.

CHAMI RALHA, FULLENKAMP CONNEL, and JAHJAH SAMIR

There is a general presumption in the literature and among policymakers that immigrant remittances play the same role in economic development as foreign direct investment and other capital flows, but this is an open question. We develop a model of remittances based on the economics of the family that implies that remittances are not profit-driven, but are compensatory transfers, and should have a negative correlation with GDP growth. This is in contrast to the positive correlation of profit-driven capital flows with GDP growth. We test this implication of our model using a new panel data set on remittances and find a robust negative correlation between remittances and GDP growth. This indicates that remittances may not be intended to serve as a source of capital for economic development.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues paper on Bangladesh underlies the export performance of readymade garment industry and inflation dynamics. Bangladesh has demonstrated that it is highly competitive in the world’s major garment markets. Inflation inertia, monetary factors, and exchange rate fluctuations are the main determinants of inflation in Bangladesh. Despite adoption of numerous tax policy measures during the past few years, policies implemented by the Bangladesh authorities have not been fully successful in lifting the revenue ratio to a level warranted by developmental objectives.

Mr. Ralph Chami and Connel Fullenkamp

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International Monetary Fund

This paper analyzes several issues regarding fiscal sustainability and fiscal adjustment in Brazil during 1990 and searches for econometric evidence of a monetary dominant regime during some subperiods. The following statistical data are also presented in detail: macroeconomic flows and balances, industrial production, consumer price index, relative public sector prices and tariffs, minimum wage statistics, financial system loans, monetary aggregates, exports by principal commodity groups, direction of trade, detailed balance of payments, total external debt, central government operations, and so on.

Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

In today’s globalized world economy, economic integration goes beyond international trade and capital movements, and increasingly involves international labor mobility. An interesting illustration of this trend is Moldova, where large-scale labor emigration and associated workers’ remittance flows have played a dominant role in shaping the economic evolution in recent years. Although in Moldova much of the impetus for labor migration has come from unfavorable domestic conditions, the phenomenon is part of a wider trend of a growing movement of temporary and skilled workers across national borders.

Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

The growing body of literature on migration and remittances provides a useful framework to analyze these phenomena in Moldova, as well as to help with policy conclusions and recommendations.1 Analytically, this literature can be organized around three main topics: motivation behind remittances, use of remittances, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.

Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

This chapter reports on the results of a survey of migration and remittances in Moldova. The survey was sponsored by the Chişinău offices of the International Organization for Migration and the Food Security Program of the European Commission, and developed by a survey agency (CBS AXA) in cooperation with the IMF resident representative office and the two sponsors. CBS AXA conducted the interviews, the focus groups, and the survey itself during September–November 2004.3

Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

The preceding section explored the motivation behind labor migration and remittances and their use in Moldova. This chapter turns to their macroeconomic consequences, introducing the topic by first looking at how the relevant economic concepts are defined, measured, and accounted for in the balance of payments statistics. Using Moldova balance of payments data, we present a few key stylized facts about Moldova that complement the detailed results of the household survey presented earlier. Discussion of macroeconomic consequences of labor migration and remittances follows.

Mr. Milan M Cuc, Mr. Erik J. Lundback, and Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero

Abstract

What challenges do remittances and labor migration pose for policymakers? Chapter 3 provided insights into what motivates Moldovans to seek employment abroad and how they make decisions about the amount and use of remittances. Chapter 4 discussed broader ramifications of these decisions for the performance of Moldova’s economy. Now we will discuss how policies can (1) influence decisions about labor migration and remittances, and (2) deal with risks that remittance inflows pose to macroeconomic stability.