This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that despite lower commodity prices and a weaker global environment, Mozambique's economic prospects remain positive given planned massive investment in natural resources. Although GDP growth averaged 7 percent over the last five years, Mozambique's per-capita income and human development index remain low. There is a need to continue implementing policies that support fiscal sustainability, infrastructure investment, and inclusive growth. Mozambique's economic outlook remains robust. Growth of 6.3 percent is expected in 2015, and remains below potential at 6.5 percent in 2016, mainly owing to a stagnant mining sector and substantially tighter fiscal and monetary policies.
This paper discusses Niger's Sixth and Seventh Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), Request for Augmentation of Access, and Extension of the Current Arrangement. Niger's growth slowed in 2015 owing to lower agricultural and natural resource sectors activity. Over the medium term, real economic growth is expected to pick up as major projects in oil and mineral extraction come to fruition. The IMF staff supports the authorities' request for waivers for the unmet PC on domestic financing and domestic arrears repayments at end-December 2014, and that of domestic financing at end-June 2015.
The paper reviews and draws lessons from the experience of fast growing economies including a sub-set of these termed High Growth Economies (HGEs) with a decadal rate of over 7 per cent. It then reviews the history of the Indian growth acceleration following the reforms of the 1990s and its future prospects given the recent slowdown. It analysis the potential dangers and reasons for India’s growth slowdown and proposes policy reforms for sustaining fast growth.
Mr. Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata, and Mr. Frederik G Toscani
This paper provides evidence of the causal impact of oil discoveries on development. Novel data on
the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: Municipalities where
oil was discovered constitute the treatment group, while municipalities with drilling but no discovery
are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and
urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically, an increase in services GDP
which stems from higher output per worker. The results are consistent with greater local demand for
non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.
This paper focuses on Burkina Faso’s Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement and Request for a new three-year ECF arrangement. Economic activity in Burkina Faso continued to grow at a brisk pace in 2013. Growth projections have been revised slightly downwards to 6.8 percent in 2013 and 2014. The authorities are requesting a successor three-year ECF arrangement to meet projected balance of payments needs. Based on ad referendum agreements, the requested successor ECF-supported program aims to address long-term structural issues, while preserving stability in a potentially more challenging macroeconomic environment going forward.