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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Recent turmoil in the Southeast Asian currency markets, as well as the earlier Mexican crisis and collapse of the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992–93, has heightened interest in the causes and symptoms of currency crises. Can early detection of symptoms allow governments to adopt pre-emptive measures? While an accurate forecast of currency crises is likely to remain elusive, a warning system would be valuable. In a new IMF Working Paper, Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, Graciela Kaminsky, Saúl Lizondo, and Carmen M. Reinhart examine empirical literature on currency crises and propose an early warning system. Since multiple problems usually precede currency crises, the authors suggest a “signals” approach, which involves monitoring a broad variety of indicators.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Recovery from the deepest recession in 60 years has started. But sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard writes in our lead article that the turnaround will not be simple. The crisis has left deep scars that will affect both supply and demand for many years to come. This issue of F&D also looks at what’s next in the global crisis and beyond. We look at ways of unwinding crisis support, the shape of growth worldwide after the crisis, ways of rebuilding the financial architecture, and the future of reserve currencies. Jeffrey Frankel examines what’s in and what’s out in global money, while a team from the IMF’s Research Department looks at what early warning systems can be expected to deliver in spotting future problems. In our regular People in Economics profile, we speak to Nobel prize winner Daniel Kahneman, whose work led to the creation of the field of behavioral economics, and our Picture This feature gives a timeline of how the Bank of England’s policy rate has fallen to its lowest level in 300 years. Back to Basics gives a primer on monetary policy, and Data Spotlight looks at how the crisis has affected the eastern European banking system.

David Dawe and Denis Drechsler

Prize or Penalty: When Sports Help Economies Score" looks at why countries vie to host the world's most costly sporting events. And, in a series of articles on "After the Crisis," we discuss why some countries were hit harder than others; how were shocks transmitted round the world, and whether protectionist pressures might intensify in 2010. As usual, we take on a number of hot topics, including housing prices, bankers' bonuses, Ponzi schemes, and inflation targeting. In "Picture This" we see that the number of hungry is on the rise, topping 1 billion. Our regular "People in Economics" column profiles Daron Acemoglu, the Turkish-born intellectual who won the American Economic Association's award in 2005 for the most influential U.S. economist under the age of 40. "Back to Basics" explains inflation; and "Data Spotlight" looks at how dollarization is declining in Latin America. Also includes articles by Nick Stern on climate change and Simon Johnson on bonuses and the "doomsday cycle

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Andorra’s growth potential is estimated to be low, though in line with the region. This could be explained by low levels of investment, both private and public, as well as multiple structural vulnerabilities that may be limiting the country’s growth potential. Boosting growth in the medium term calls for a multi-pronged approach aiming at diversifying the economy, increasing investment, and building human capital.